Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never leave the pocket because we had no mobility. We're like kurkoa Chains. I'm here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio for our week nine picks. It's Cynthia Freeland. Time of the week. Let's go.
Why would we ever leave the pocket?
No, we're having so much success inside the pocket. That's a little tease to maybe one of my picks a little later. But this is the part of the show where we talk about our picks from last week. We both went one and two, so we're just gonna move past that for the season. If you check us out on YouTube, you can see the fancy graphics. Cynthia is one game up on me. She's five hundred one back. You know what things. I actually looked at our record against the spread of the off season on game debut,
and it's much better. We're both well over five hundred picking every single game when we're so that just means that our time is coming and that we're gonna have some great picks. Because the picks for this show I feel good about. This week. You're going to start us off three picks against the spread, go back and forth.
Listen, you are one heck of a segue artist with that intro, because I'm going to go with Atlanta. Oh thank Atlanta wins by at least two and a half, so three points. At least I have five points. I'm a conservative modeler, so ultimately that's a pretty big win, in part because this Dallas defense cannot stop any yak yaka.
Or ya co.
Remember the yards of the catcher yards after contact you go. Both are a huge problem. So John Robinson, welcome to my lineup. I'm obviously he was there to begin with, but massive day for him.
For me, I love that let's just join forces. We haven't done that a lot on this show. But Atlanta minus two and a half minus three, whatever you find for it, I'm feeling it. This is one of those lines that I looked at and I don't have a model, but it's almost like, oh, you're just begging us to take the Falcons here. I get a little worried about that. But I've been fading Atlanta all year, including last week. I did a bad job at that, picking the Buccaneers
on our show game debut. I don't think I did it here. No, you didn't do it here. I don't know whatever, But here's the thing. They have a good running game. YEP. At the beginning of the season, it was like, can you marry up the shotgun the pistol concepts of Kirk Cousins with the running game? When I look at it, it doesn't look married up, and yet it's very effective lately. So going up against Dallas, whether
they have Michael Parsons back or not. Fourth in overall offensive efficiency and then this is a bad defense for the Falcons. That's why I haven't been in on them all, but I think this is a week that they can survive. So I looked at the DVOA, So that's total efficiency. I know there's different metrics, and I'm like, am I crazy here? In total efficiency? Falcons are about thirteenth on the season. The Cowboys are twenty six. Like, this is not a good team. There's just been like a team
that Vegas hasn't given up on. And then finally they broke out those Outcast sweats shirts this week. I don't know if you saw that the Falcons Outcast collab. You're not gonna lose. You're gonna have a lot of Outcast sweatshirts this weekend.
You cannot lose wearing that sweatshirt like it is like like undefeated sweatshirt. And we haven't even seen them play a game in it yet, but we know they're already undefeated after having that collab.
Yeah, and you look like you wanted to tell me more about like the bad defense.
Oh no, no, no, I just want to talk about this, Like those are that.
That's some good swag right there, Like whoever's doing that partnership A plus good?
Yeah, maybe they'll maybe they'll be at the stadium. And so I'm feeling Atlanta minus three. We've got three four units in this game, two pretty bad defenses, one pretty bad offense, and one Falcons offense. I'm believing in the Falcons offense, like at least all right, so we're we're on that together. So we got through that quickly. What is your second pick?
Well, all right, for my second pick, I'm gonna go the Buffalo Bills and six points, so they have to cover at least a six point spread, they win by at least a touchdown. The number six I enjoy because seven and a half is a crappy number. Six is a much more palatable number. This means the difference between one possession or two possessions. So I'm looking at the opportunity to beat Miami at home. They get Von Miller back,
they already have Greg Russo who's been bringing the heat. Obviously, we know that they're gonna try to run the football. Devin chan In three games have had three great games against the Bills. However, getting that quick passing game going and the rhythm back, I don't know if Buffalo is the place that two was going to be able to
make that happen. And also last week we saw some sort of like confusing data from their defense, which had been playing pretty well, them being the Dolphins defense clearly not the Bills defense, because they.
Did really well in Seattle.
But ultimately I don't know what to trust about this defense, and I trust a lot more about what I've seen from Josh Allen on the offense.
Yeah, I think their toughness will be tested. We'll see if Zach Seeler plays in this game. Who's a really important part of that doin.
Yeah, defense, but Jalen Ramsey has not been Jalen Ramsey.
He hasn't given up something coverage and Buffalo can beat you two different ways they can. They can just rind you to dust like they did to the Seahawks. They can obviously make big plays in the passing game. We saw Kyler Murray outside the pocket doing that last week inside the pocket as well. Josh Allen even better at that. I'm with you. I'm now writing that down in my little extra picks because Box is the Box is back.
It's like a really honored yeah.
Because I do feel that in my soul this matchup has been so bad in the Mike McDaniel Sean McDermott era. I don't really like going back to past years too much, but when it's a specific coaching matchup and you've lost five straight and week two with Tua out there, they were up thirty one to ten before two have got that injury. So I'm with you there. That's not gonna be one of my top three picks though. And you were right. I did not take the bucks on this
show last week. Okay, you have a good memory.
I was pretty sure you didn't right two of those shows together, so they kind of mixed together.
My top pick. Let's hear it, Washington minus four on the road, Now, I get it. I could see why models might agree or disagree. I don't even know it does years agree with me? Okay strongly that was one of Okay, that was in feel free to take it. As you're three, there's no rules. We could just we could have a different one for my third fun. Yeah, so I get it. Why it's only four. It's a road team, it's a young team that you're still learning about.
It's a division matchup. When they first played Believe that was week two, very close. The Giants actually felt like they should have maybe won that game. But sometimes I don't want to get too complicated. It's two teams head in opposite direction. Washington has passed every test throughout this the course of this season. I know they could have lost last week, doesn't matter to me. They outplayed the Bears. They look like a quality team. Two quality teams. It
comes down to the end, Washington won. These are not two quality teams. Going back to overall deficient efficiency, Washington ninth, Giants twenty fifth, not close special teams. Giants have been terrible week after week after week, and special teams giving up big returns, not making their kicks thirty first, Washington seventh. Here's some more numbers since week four. This Washington defense, which was supposed to be the weak side. That's a
pretty long sample now since week four. I'm including week four that was the Arizona game. Second in EPA per play allowed, fourth in total points allowed per game. They're getting it done. Steve Weisch was in this studio and saying how they've really simplified things. They're playing fast now when they play better opponents. Do I think their defense is going to be world beaters? No, like we saw what happen against Baltimore. But this is not a world beater.
There's no home field advantage. Everyone's sick of Daniel Jones in New York. They could be booinged by the middle of the second quarter. There's nothing really to feel good about. And so I could see it being close in the middle of the third quarter, where it's still at the four, it's at seven. But I really like Washington. I think they're a real deal team, and I don't believe in the Giants at all.
Completely agree.
I'm gonna give just because New York's had a hard week and like b'rella people, even though maybe not LA fans, like you know, I'm the Dodger, you know, whatever, so.
I've jumped on board with the Dodge.
I see Dexi's good. They're really good. They have most sacks in the league.
And Dexter, who when I want to meet him and become friends with him, just so I could be like my friend dex you know, like, I just feel like that would be good.
They've been good with that.
And also on the other side, you know Bobby Wagner in this defense, Like I understand he's not the youngest cat on the block, but his ability on that Washington defense to be that guy.
The voice, the quarterback of the defense or whatever you want.
To call it, but basically not miss tackles, their tackle efficiency rate, meaning how they've stopped teams from getting Yaka yoko.
To He just loves when he does that.
But anyways, but yeah, like that's been a really big that's been a really big difference maker for this Washington defense. I'm totally on the same side as that good That was one of mine for sure.
I like it. And yeah, Tyrone Tracy, who had been breaking a lot of tackles playing well for the Giants. They have a good rookie class.
But he might not be playing.
He's probably not playing in this game coming off of a concussion. So that's my second pick. We're both in on Atlanta. I take Washington. You had the Bills. What is your final pick?
And in the Battle of Apolis's the one in Minneapolis on sun I think there's a number five. If I like the number six, I certainly like the number five. So Minneapolis with five points, woo in Minneapolis against Indianapolis to see who wins the Battle of the Apolis.
Is I okay? I bet? I wonder if Colts fans will travel. That's it's not too far to Minneapolis relatively. It's nice not you drive to that. No, I guess you have to like take a like a do okay, explain why because I want to know why the model you think likes the Vikings better. Because I got to admit Indy plus five is on my little box list, but it's not my third pick. But we were going to go against each other on the.
Oh, yeah, that's fine. We gotta go against each other on one of them. Yeah, a couple of reasons. I know Joe Flacco's starting, but when it comes to the types of blitz that Brian Flores likes to execute. Last week against the Rams, things were wonky at the end. When we were doing anything we were doing for our shows, we did not know that Cooper Cup was for sure playing, and we certainly didn't know that Puku and Aaku was
playing until the ninety minutes prior. We didn't know, So there was a lot lot of things that were different and there they could have won that game. It's not like it was such a huge butt kicking that it was super convincing either way. So the types of blitz is that Brian Flores likes to throw out there, they're not as easy to execute as Michael Pittman's maybe not playing that's not great. Is Josh Jowns fully healthy. I know Jonathan Taylor is supposed to play in this game,
and their O line is good. However, the way that that defense executes, it's just going to be very hard. Even though Joe Flacker's Flacker, Joe Flacker.
Is a much better thrower. Joe Flacco is a great thrower.
Yeah, maybe you're maybe convincing me almost to cross out, So I kind of get why. Like you look at the numbers because they're over the course of the season are maybe more meaningful than just the last two weeks. But there is an eye test thing that Okay, quarterbacks who can understand a little bit what Minnesota is doing, attack the middle of the field, copy a little bit what the last two offenses have done. Could Joe Flacco do that? Throw into his tight ends? Throwing with this
play duchdowns he should. I know he's on the injury report, but he finished last week's games. We'll see about when.
You have two three guys that are potential pass catchers, way different than when you have like one guy like hey.
It's me, Yeah, that's fair. And Bernard Ryman is ryme injury report with a concussion. The NFL has done a bad job with these spotters like Bernard Ryman gave up huge sacks at the end of last week's game. Then he showed up the next day and he turns out he was concussed playing through a concussion. That would be a big loss for them against a good pass rush. Five just felt a little rich for a game that
I don't know. I just kind of expect these Vikings games to come down to the final possession, these Colts games to come down to the final possession. You're maybe pushing me off putting that in the box. I don't know my third pick.
Wait one thing with Christian Dara saw being gone, I was worried. But they got Cam Robinson.
That helps a lot. That helps a big time. Okay, a big time. I feel like we need to be on the same page here. Although I wanted the Colts as my backup to my Baltimore minus nine pick, now I don't like picking anything that could have an injury, repercussions. And maybe by the time you guys hear this, the Lamar Jackson thing will be taken care of. I'm just gonna assume Lamar Jackson's playing when you finish on Sunday. You're starting quarterback in the NFL. Almost certainly, this is
the guy who's played through a lot of things. You're playing the next week. That said, he's misspracticed Wednesday and Thursday. That's never a good sign. It's never a good sign when John Harbaugh says it's a rest day, but then he shows up on the injury port as a kneeback. I don't care. He looked good last week. I actually thought he played well against Cleveland. His offensive line didn't,
and that's a concern this week. And yet this is one of those lines where I look at, Wow, nine points, that's crazy against the Broncos, and they're almost begging you to take the Broncos, and I'm not gonna do it. This is maybe a spiteful pick. I'm not believing in the Broncos. I believe they're fine. I believe they're like eight and nine, but I don't think bo Knicks can get it done against a good defense. Is this a good defense statistically? No, but I do think it's a
great team overall, and great teams respond. That was a division game last week, a matchup they've had some struggles with against Cleveland. You're coming off a loss. You're one of the very best teams in the entire NFL in my mind, the Baltimore Ravens returning home, and so I think this offense can make the Broncos blitz look very average, run straight through them, be able to handle the Blitzz. You got Deontay Johnson. That's another outside receiver. We'll see
how big of a factor he is. But ultimately I'm looking at as like an eight or nine win team on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL who's absolutely ready to bounce back from last week, So I say nine points is not enough. Bo Nicks make some mistakes, has a couple turnovers in this game, and they end up walking away with it. Maybe it's not like a twenty point win, but it's thirty to sixteen. They cover the nine. Let's go Ravens.
You know what's wild is the rookie quarterback who scored the most offensive touchdowns this year is Bonux not Jane de I mean, I just thought that stat was wild. And I just want to know how you feel about my two preseason win total picks, because I feel like this is I'm pretty happy about these. Yes, my NFC pick for who was going to exceed their expectations was the Seattle Seahawks, who was at who were at six and a half.
How are we feeling about that?
That's fit? That's looking And how about.
Them Broncos five and a half baby five and a half wins?
Are you kidding me?
Are you? Yeah?
Am I happy about that?
Yeah?
You're right? Am I tooting my own heart?
Be shp? You should? That's if you can cash like an over under win total.
Before Thanksgiving, well before Thanksgiving, maybe maybe he can catch it on Sunday if I'm just gonna eat good if I'm very very wrong, Okay, so I'm going Baltimore minus nine as my third pick on the off chance that Lamar Jackson doesn't play. Just that, but backup for housekeeping purposes, I'll just go with your Bills pick as my third, Okay, And that is it. And yes, every week I have a little box of extra picks. They've done pretty well over the course of the season, all though.
The box was the box came out of the gates on fire.
On fire, and they get on some water lately. But I'm gonna stick with my Flacco plus five. I like the Bills, as I mentioned, as kind of my backup there, I get totally out of the Ravens business. If Lamar is not playing, forget that game for just stay away. And then the other one I kind of like this week was Cincinnati minus nine as long as t Higgins. You know te Higgins actually, I think makes a big difference to me, and we're not sure about his status.
But I think they are a good team that absolutely needs to win. I'm not giving up on them. The Raiders have a defense that I won't be able to stop them. Through the air or on the ground. I actually think Chase Brown could get it going this week.
So I think it's I think this is a wild one where the Raiders have two different identities. There's the good Raiders that can somehow upset the Ravens, and then there's the not good Raiders and those are the ones that are like, what am I even watching here?
Right?
So I'm just curious which one is going to show up because my only kind of hmm, what are my little clues here? Well, Roberts Bulaine has played this Bengals.
Team quite a bit.
He was a Steeler front okay, and Max Crosby. His pressure rate is low for his season total. Usually he didn't really wouldn't really make a lot of noise last week.
So my I mean, I'm just saying for the number.
I'm not saying for the win, just out of cure, Like I don't know, So I don't know that it's just which identity is coming, Yeah, the one that Antonio Pierce like feels like is the one that takes on the identity of their coach.
Coming or is like it's like when they can get up for games and Gardner Minshew plays well that's two different things. They got up for that Chiefs game. They played well, you know they covered, they didn't. They didn't end up winning that game. Gardner Minshew played well. I don't know if you can expect that two straight weeks. So I like Cincinnati minus seven, but I like him a lot better if t Higgins is that's right, playing two review. We are both in on the Falcons. I
have Gobert Anders and the Ravens. You have the Bill and your final pick was I forgot Minnesota. Minnesota. That's right where we're going against each other. Thank you, Cynthia Freeland. Check out Numbers Game on YouTube each and every week. Check out this show on YouTube each and every week. We can watch both, yes, or if you want, you know, listen to yours, but subscribe like it. Check out NFL Daily. It's been an awesome week of NFL Daily shows. Really, Look,
what's your favorite one to Sundays with you? Okay, the one I'm doing and that's the one that we're doing right now, and yes, we'll wrapping up. We'll be there on Sunday Night with Patrick Claybon and Nick Nick Schook from Cleveland. Yes, when we're talking about November. Football, I mean football is really back. It's never been more back.