Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're not talking about last week, but we're also probably not picking the rams anytime soon. I'm here Greg Rosenthal with Cynthia Freeland, and yes, this is the man Versus Model segment taking over the country every week. The world we picked fan games.
Not just the country.
That's it is, it is global. I have appreciated everyone that has been listening to this and hopefully not taking all of our advice. More on that late there, because some of it's good, some of it's bad. Yeah, let's talk about next week very quickly. I went to zero in three. That was a tough situation. Cynthia and I were one together. Great, you weren't one and two. You're three and three over on two and four. So I hate starting out the season like this, but I don't care.
I am confident. This week we are picking winners and we're gonna make it up to our listeners. I'm gonna start. I'm gonna go first this week. Now that I'm I'm kind of on that.
I like it. Listen, whatever gets you centered and grounded and ready to go, let's go.
I kind of need it, like we need a good week. I cannot see the rest another one in two week. I feel great about the Seattle Seahawks minus four and a half this week at home. I was really surprised when I saw this number. The way the numbers have been this season, I was like, Okay, this is gonna be six and a half, this is gonna be seven. It might even be seven a half. I would have considered it at seven and a half. Here's a few reasons why Miami the thirtieth best pass blocking offensive line
in the league according to PFF. Like they can't protect. They were not the same Miami Dolphins for the six and a half quarters that tuatungue Iiloa was out there, and that really sticks in my mind. They're twenty ninth in a rushing efficiency, So what are they good at offensively? Really nothing to me. What about their defensive backs? Okay, they can at least have a good matchup. Jalen Ramsey has not looked like the same Jalen r.
Traveling doesn't look good on him right He needs to stay on the right.
Side, and he's coming off of an injury. And speaking of traveling, they're going all the way across the country to Seattle four and a half seems way too low. I love this. That's why I'm taking it first, because I know you could take it with me, but when we joined forces last week it did not go well. All right, that is my first pick. I want to hear who you have first, Cynthia.
I think there's a completely misspriced line for the Packers when they face the Tennessee Titans. I loved the Malik Willis like I think my check cash every time I worked there, whatever. I thought that was very funny. However, the opportunity here for the run game to really just exceed expectations. Whether it's Malik Willis or Jordan Love, I don't care. Saw them last week against the Colts really exploit the run. I don't think that it's a great
run defense. Is this not the same situation. But ultimately in this matchup, you're going to be able to see that run game persist.
That surprises me. So I do care a lot. If Jordan Love plays this game, I'd probably be on the Packer side. I like the Titans in this game, not enough to pick them in this spot, but I like the Titans. I picked them to w on game deview for what it's worth, just because I like how their defense is played so far. So your first pick is Packers. Mine's gonna be an AFC South.
Packers and I get three points though, Yeah, okay, not just Packers straight up, I want I am taking my three points and I'm keeping minute.
Yeah, you gotta, you gotta lock it in early. Who knows how it could change the Colts. I'm taking them minus one point five this week against the Bears. I really struggled with this this pick. I thought about the Giants as a pick, but I'm going Colts over the Bears. I just don't think that the Bears are that good of a team right now. I mean, some of their offensive numbers through two weeks are historically low, and when I look at their defense, it's good. Is it great?
I don't know if they're really built to stop the run. I think Matt Eberflus built a defense to be one of the best pass defenses in the entire NFL. They're great in the secondary, their linebackers cover, but they are a little soft on the edges. They're a little soft
up the middle. And you play a Colts team that has Anthony Richards and that has Jonathan Taylor, that's been outstanding on the ground, like EPA for playt gen stats, all that stuff has the Colts as basically the second or third best rushing team in the league against a pretty mediocre run defense. And then I just think about sometimes logic and maybe this is where I go off of the model and go up. But I look at the Colts team and sometimes I just can't see them
as an OH and three team. These two teams look like one and two type of teams to me, and the Colts a little bit of extra juice, you know, a little bit of extra motivation to avoid that zher to three start. I just think the way that seasons play out, I see them winning this game. I see Taylor and Richardson maybe getting more rushing attempts that he has the last few weeks in getting a win.
Against the Bears. I mean, if you said Taylor in the fourth quarter like that, like you don't play him in the fourth quart I don't know. I didn't understand that. But I'm going exactly the opposite we are going, which actually means we're guaranteed to get one of them. One of us will be reading your fighter and this one
I'm going with the Bears. I'm taking the points. I think the interesting part here is when I look at you talk about defenses and you talk about vulnerability points in the defense, I'm pretty sure that the Bears offensive situation with Shane Waldron is going to say, hey, this run defense. No DeForest Buckner too lot has been on the injury report. When you're running against this team, there
are so many options. This is a like if I'm playing in DFS leagues, I am like buying lots of shares of DeAndre Swift because I think he's probably under price given that he hasn't really performed very much earlier. Like this is a situation where I know there a line is not a source of strength yet. I know third down is an issue still, but I think this is like the Caleb believes this is his first passing touchdown. You we're gonna deny the man opportunity for his first
passing touchdown. That's too many injuries.
He can get a passing touchdown. I don't think you can get a win. My final one feel better about this one. The cult was kind of my third pick. Saints minus two point five.
Love it.
I really find this time of year fascinating for picking game, because to me, it's kind of the ultimate to the first two weeks of data tell you more, or to the historical data tell you more. And I know because we talked about it already on game debut. You picked the Eagles straight up in this game, and yet to me, the two weeks matter more. If you have an offense as good as the Saints have been the last two weeks, it means at the end of the season they are
going to be a high tier offense. And if you want to look at the history this falcon, I mean this Eagles team has been a little bit of a mess for a while. On defense, they have really not had answers going back to last year. They were terrible all last year. Vic Fangio doesn't seem like they've really
figured out. And when I see like the strengths of this Saints offense, which to me is going to be leaning against this Eagles defense on the edges in the running game, I think that translates very well to what their vulnerabilities have been. And so you're at home. The Saints are majoring in outside zone. The Eagles are flunking right now in terms of their defense. I love the Saints minus two point five this week.
But if I just told you that it kind of neither one matters yet because it's not enough data for one season. But also last season doesn't matter either, So like what if the answer is neither anyway?
But then why does your model? I'm just curious because we have the time here, yeah it's a podcast. Why does your model have the Eagles winning this game outright? When I know there must have been some inputs before the season that the Saints team wasn't going to be that great. But at this point, like they've shown a lot.
Well, they've shown their production has been good, but they haven't shown a lot in terms of variabilities and plays. They've just like run outside zone. Eighty percent of their plays have been a run or play action. Like they've run a lot of outside zone. So they're not showing me a lot of different plays. That is a limiting factor.
So if something goes wrong, we don't really have any data points to suggest that if they get into a decent hole, that digging themselves out would be something that would be easy to do, right or you know, we don't know. There's a lot of We do.
Have like ten plus years of pretty tricky data on Derek Carr. That's great, well buzzing now, so I'm not aligating this.
So the comps like so it's like real estate, right, Like if I'm going to go buy a house, the price is based on the price per square foot, right, That's the thing you look for, doppelgangers, lookalikes, things that you can say, this is what compares to this. So in historical data, when defense is configured like this, with data like this, have faced offenses that look like this, configured like this, that's what's happening. So it's not necessarily
like only this year's data. It's also lookalikes that are relevant lookalikes from the past. So just say, you know, like, that's how the model does it.
I look alike under the same team is the twenty nineteen. They just got some magic to me.
No, I don't know. I like the Saints. Let's get your third pick, my third pick, listen. I loved what I saw from parts of this Raiders offense. I thought it was a lot of fun to watch Brock powers Davante Adams was essentially horizontal. I am still unclear if he's subject to the same laws of gravity as the rest of us. It is unclear, but I think this is a really nice plus spot for them in a game against the Panthers that are struggling, they're making some changes.
I think they're going to win by at least five and a half points. That to me feels like an opportunity. It is their home opener. Gardner Minshew has some really interesting data, a little bit of like very vegasy data right, Like there's some Boomer bust situation run down the field very well he's been throwing down to. But I mean again, seventeen being horizontal and brock Bauers just lighting things up. I even think this could be a plus spot for Jacoby Meyers, a guy who saw the end zone quite
a bit last season. So I just think this is a really good opportunity for them. Especially there's no Derek Brown on that defense for the Panthers. I haven't seen a lot of spark there. Maybe Andy Dalton will actually make the offense have to do even more because if he scores a bit right, then the score could get the score overall could get jacked up a little bit. But I think this will be a situation where Max Crosby against those tackles just feels like a bad idea.
So get the ball out quickly. Andy Dalton, stay with your kind of your history of being a quick passer.
But Dold could play well.
I feel like it's a anti Dalton take at all. It's just a pro Vegas take.
If Bryce Young was a starter. I suspect this line would be a couple points bigger in Vegas.
In I wonder, what can we call them Vegas? It's Cynthia Calmy would have.
Be are pretty similar to Vegas. The model computes it all, and I'm with you. If I had to pick a side on this, it's not what was one of my favorite ones, just because it's so much uncertainty.
Becau Jeff Saturday has won a game in this league.
I mean that they pick the Raiders if I had to. Now we're going to wrap up the show just with a little something that I just wanted to point out about last week. I'm embarrassed I went to one three. I failed. But if you do watch this on our YouTube show, you can see the little extra picks I make which I throw out at the end, and I actually have a note card I want our producer to throw up there and you can see I circled about five more picks and I set them on the show
New Orleans, Vikings, Bucks, Steelers, and Jags. I went four and one on those picks. So that's two weeks in a row. That little extra box.
What's in the box this week?
That I made something like eight and two, So those are just a little extra ones.
I want to know the box beforehand.
Okay, I know Giants I told you before, and I'm botho. I like Giants a lot plus six point Frae. That one I really debated. I almost wanted to put that in my top three. I just think the Browns are not good enough to be favored by that much at this point. I like the Ravens minus one, kind of going off the whole. Can't imagine the Raves getting to Owen three. I think they're a.
Little more math than that. But I do like the next Craig stat and.
Then the Bengals minus seven. I just think they're offense. T Higgins coming back against the worst defense in the league of bad secondary I think they could win that game by ten. I think it could be like thirty three to twenty one. Washington puts up some points but.
I like, like, I like what you're like, what you're saying.
What if you want to hear more I do of Cynthia? No, no, no, got enough of me. It's been along Oh NFL Tube channel. You can check out Cynthia's weekly preview every week, right, so please game show Cynthia Freeland the Numbers game and uh yeah, it's been awesome all week. Appreciate you checking out Man versus Model. Week three, we will be.
Back as winners. You back as winners, that's true.
And Week four, but on Sunday Night, Patrick clayban Nick shook an eye wrapping up all the week three games and yeah, I can brag about how smart these picks were. Then football is back