Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never rest our starters.
I'm Greg Rosenthal.
I'm here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend for the last time in the regular season.
But the first time in twenty twenty five. Thank you, Hi.
I like the first time better. I'm kind of like a fresh starts than a like sacrifice.
Oh but we're not making fresh starts, Cynthia.
We're finishing out this season, although I'm bringing you back for twenty twenty five if we can afford you.
Yeah.
Let's let's look at the records from last week. That's why I'm talking about not a fresh star. Cynthia went to and one great pick with the Raiders, Cruised loved. I love the Raiders. I'm annoyed I didn't take that the bucks Man even more. Cruise City they covered by about thirty points. You missed on the Rams. So you're two and one twenty seven and twenty four on the season. You're won back of me. I went one and two.
I'm now five over on the season. I said before last week that I was so confident in my picks that if I ended up with a one and two I would it would shake my confidence low, but there's an aster.
I'm not shook. I was gonna say, I hope not.
Even in the slightest because I took two teams in the Broncos and the Falcons, that I thought would win straight up and were both underdogs three to four points. You know what, at the end of sixty minutes they were tied. So you lose your money. I get it, But you don't feel like if you lost on two overtime teams that were underdogs, that you were like on the right wrong side. And by the way, my little extra pick the Gregstra was the Bills, who covered eight
and half. I love the Gregtra very easily, so feeling good on and this week I'm feeling good too. My only problem was I have too many games I like. I love Week eighteen. I don't know how you feel about it. But when I was actually betting real money before I could come here, before you worked here, I thought the best weeks of opportunity of the season were weeks one.
Two and eighteen.
Because there's just the most that I think, there's the most uncertainty that you can feel better about.
I would just say you just have to be disciplined because the problem that we have is that we're forced to pick all of the.
Games, yes, and on this show, though not.
On this show but on Game Day View at other places. So I get frustrated and people like you you should have known better than on Tuesday when your scores came out that blah blah blah. I'm like, didn't you see the update after you told Like, yes, for example, you know Jim Harbaugh could rest the starters after the results of some Saturday games, So again you have to be malleable and flexible, like, just don't pick that one as one of your confidence ones.
Yes, So I agree it was a week where things could change. That Chargers example is perfect that if the Bengals win on Saturday, that will give the Chargers more motivation to go for the seed because they're trying to pass Steelers. And you got to stay on top of all this. I feel like we have a pretty good idea.
There's some crazy lines out there, like the Titans are favored over the Texans, the Eagles in the in the Giants are very close, the Bills and the Patriots, and this is all because of resting starters.
I'm curious where you want to go.
With your first pick, because, like I said, I had a hard time narrowing it down. I like about six games a lot, and my only struggle is where I'm narrowing it down.
But where you go?
I think that my first one right now? What are you see for Cincinnati?
Cincinnati? That's a bold one because this is a normal game.
But that makes sense normal game because there are minus two at Pittsburgh, all right.
I think that Cincinnati wins that wow, and they cover the spread on that one. And the reason I'm starting with one that's not a crazy, you know, not a crazy line, one like the Cleveland and Baltimore line seventeen and a half points is I know that Cincinnati they
need to win in order to stay playoff relevant. I know that Joe Burrow has been at least recently, like the joint Jamar Chase t. Higgins situation has been so fruitful for them that I just think that that's a like, if you were gonna give me like a first half line, then I would go for, Like, you know, I would love like Baltimore to be winning by at least nine and a half points, but we're not. Now we're going Cincinnati wins by two.
I kind of forgot about that Baltimore game.
Is that the number was so big that I didn't even look at it and yeticulous, And yet that's not a crazy pick. I'm on the opposite side, although I'm getting less confident about Pittsburgh not for this show. That's my least confident pick of the week. That's just a kind flip. I just I just don't have face in that Bengals. But I've been on the wrong side of the Bengals and you've been on the right side in
recent weeks, So don't listen to me. I am going to the next biggest point spread of the week after the Ravens, and that's Bucks. That was actually I wrote down seven games I liked, and it was the only game that I was ultimately.
Like, I will sleep Zaki. Yeah, yeah, Now the Bucks.
They made the number huge to try to get anyone to go on the same side.
It's thirteen and a half, and so that's.
Aggressive crazy though, because if it was fourteen and a half, I would feel very differently. Thirteen and a half is two scores, it is and touchdowns.
Obviously, obviously throughout this week, I'm looking at teams that are playing for something and teams that aren't or arresting players. This is an extreme example, but there's some numbers to it too. Spencer Rattler, if he was eligible, has been pressured on more of his dropbacks than any quarterback in the entire NFL this season. That's partly because he holds the ball. Do you know what team has the highest pressure rate since Week eleven in the entire NFL?
Oh?
Well, I mean, I'm guessing that since you asked this question specifically about the Bucks, that it's the Buck.
It's the Bucks.
It's the Bucks.
So that's right now, the team that's the best at pressuring against the quarterback who faces the most pressure, who's a rookie. That's an absolute mismatch. Then you look on the other side of the ball. The Bucks offensive line protect Baker so well, the Saints so low in pressure rate. They are one of the worst teams of all time in terms of giving up a yak yardage, something that the Bucks specialize in, even in a world where the
Saints were playing better. I just think the strengths and the weaknesses are so dramatically opposed here in terms of the line play and the tackling for the Saints that I love it. I think they can cover this thing by the end of the first half. So whatever the first half line is, would I would like that as well. They want to go to the playoffs. That is my first pick. Give me your second pick.
Well, let me tell you something about this pick first, because that was one that was that I was considering.
You can jump on board too if we agree hard that.
I know what I do. Agree hard because in a week, you know, my model's pretty conservative, and in a week where there's a seventeen and a half point spread, the fact that Tampa Bay has a higher win percentage for me than Baltimore in the situation were there and it's a relative to the spread, like they're ranked higher in that. So I mean, I don't know. I think I need to jump on board with you in that one.
We've been good, not perfect. I know we miss one.
I think we're about two and one or three and one when we've been on the same side this year, and I think that's fine. The idea here is we're trying to get these right for our listeners. We're on the same team. We're on the same team here. We're on the team of the listeners and I'm jumping it'll save It'll make the show shorter. So that's good for everyone if you just want to get out and about for your day. Okay, my second pick, and like I said, I like a lot of them, and so it was
tough to choose between them. But the longer I looked at my Seahawks minus six and a half against the resting Rams, the more I thought, this is as if the Seahawks are playing for a playoff spot and the Rams are resting starters.
Because the Seahawks really.
Want to win this game, They're gonna play everyone they want to get to ten wins. Mike McDonald talked about how there's a lot of players on the team that have incentives that he wants to within the framework of winning the game, wants to help them out. I think they're gonna be up for it. More importantly, they're playing a team that's starting Jimmy Garoppolo, and now, as backup
quarterbacks go, that's not bad. But when you're sitting Poka Nakua and Cooper Cup and you're replacing them with Xavier Smith and Jordan Winnington, and you're sitting offensive linemen, and I look at this Rams roster as someone who's been to a lot of their preseason games. There are stars and scrubs type of roster. So if you sit down Jared Vers and a couple of their best players, it's a big drop off to the undrafted free agents that are coming in.
Of course, they're not really trying to win. The crowd's not gonna care.
Six and a half is a lot, obviously, but I kind of was looking forward to this game if the Rams had something to play for, and I might just have picked the Seahawks to win straight up if the starters were playing because of the way the Rams offense has really taken on water lately. So do I think their backups are suddenly gonna play? Well, No, I'm going Seahawks minus six and a half.
I like that pick a lot. I'm gonna pick another one just so or not, But I am hones say is that just work there? However, my one fantasy note here for like Daily would be a Blake Koram situation. I think he could have a fun week. I'm not suggesting he's going to be like, you know, a guy, if you're playing, if you're in your championships, I'm not late. But if you're playing in DFS and you want to have some fun, we can't do it. Do it for us.
Yeah. The reason why I like them is I do think they've actually built up something on defense. They haven't been perfect, but over all the defense has really made strides. But their run defense has been a little up and down this year, and I love the way Quorum runs.
Yeah.
Now you're making me a little nervous because.
I'm not worried about the point. I just think it's a.
Fun I'm a little worried because just because I like all these other ones so much that it's it's hard to kill one of my babies here. I wish I had more than three picks this week. We're going lots of greg stras. All right, give me your third and final pick.
My third and final pick for the regular twenty twenty four season is the Green Bay Packers.
Okay, over the Chicago Bears.
Uh it's it's I have I have twelve points.
I have ten here, so I'll give you two free points here on DraftKings right now.
Perfect.
Well, my point is my model, your model is my model has exactly My model has twelve points, which is that's considerably. That's a that's a big one for me and conservative model or over here. So that's a good one in large part because I just think between I think they need to figure out how to especially after last game. They got to write the ship. And this is the situation where with Matt Leiffleur, they're heading into
the playoffs the Bears. Let's get a little spark going against against a Bears team that doesn't have a lot to play for, but you know, pride of course. But I think I think this is gonna be a good one for them.
Yeah, shout out to the schedule makers.
That's early, right, the Green Bay game, Yes, that is in the early windows, so they're at the same time as Washington, and they've both said that they're going to play their starters for seeding purposes and just wanting to look good. You never know on the Packers side, if they scoreboard watched and the Commander's game got out of control, but that game is only a four and a half point spread, you never know, So it's like a small
bit of concern. And I do think ultimately that Washington game does get out of control, because that's going to be my third pick like that, I'm going to Washington minus four and a half. I hate not going with any underdogs this week. My next three favorite picks are underdogs. But here I'm going all favorites. I'm going to Washington minus four and a half. When the two it's the two division teams thing. When they're uneven teams, there you go,
they play they play one. Dallas already won this matchup. He did, but when you looked at that matchup, they gave up four hundred and twelve yards. The Commanders ran all over them. The Cowboys have a historically bad run defense. They want to win this game. The Cowboys are not even the same team as they were four or five weeks ago. They don't have CD Lamb in this game. They don't Ezekiel Elliott. How could they come back from that? No, I'm just kidding.
I just was looking to see who of their pass catchers. There's one that ranks in the top forty for me. So it's not a great outlook Brandon.
Cooks, Oh, I was gonna say, like not Chalingilbert, ye, Ferguson, Yeah, it's not great.
Ferguson, Oh, obviously he's at the tight end position. He's in like the top twenty, but like that's not great.
Yeah, this is purely again because I like so many of the other picks, this is purely a team that's playing for something and is peaking versus a team that's ready to go home, and so a matchup that I don't think they'll take lightly because they already they already lost. And four and a half not quite enough for me. Now, that's that was hard for me though, because I don't know, like I said, because I'm having I'm going to kill some babies that most weeks would be like one of my favorite picks.
What if you had to pick one more?
Yeah, well I'll give you the Greg.
Okay, give me my Greg extress.
Here we go. Chiefs plus ten and a half.
Love that, agreed. It's it's tricky picking the backups. But could the Chiefs win straight up with their backups? I think it's possible. So if you think it's possible they could win with their backups, to get ten and a half points is pretty juicy. I'm not a huge Carson Wentz fan specifically, and against that defense, that's what knocks.
It out of my top three. But I really like it. I like the Panthers plus eight two.
Oh gosh, are we on the same side of everything.
Right this week?
That's good that that's an extra one. So let's write that down as an extra. You just can't be trusting the Atlanta Falcons in the year twenty twenty five to be favored by eight points in any.
That's a ridiculous note, Like have six and a half. I think they'd get more action on it.
I think that's a crazy number. The Panthers have the better quarterback.
I like Michael Pennix, but I've seen enough out of Bryce Young that he's playing at a very high level. I know they got wax last week and the defense is that's why it's eight points. Yeah, And then I also like the Giants plus three. I think I'm not going to say they have a little something and Drew Locke, but I actually think that for Perfemance was kind of coming. He was a little better. They have something to play for. I think they like their coach. They're playing starters. The
Eagles are resting their starters. It's not just like you're without Jalen Hurts. You're without a lot of key players at all these positions.
So do you.
Agree with the do you agree with the sitting sequon yes, same yes. People will say that, I'm like, They're like, he should get to choose if he wants to do it. I'm like, yeah, okay, but if he chooses to be selfish and not be the team player, then I like, and what happens if you get hurt?
Like, I don't know, it's too much, you can't play. He also he also leads the NFL in rushes. This guy needs needs a break. Three forty five is a huge, huge number, all right, So that is it for my picks. Uh to recap, we are both on the Bucks minus thirteen and a half. Yep, Cynthia has the Bengals minus two and the Packers minus ten. Like I said, I'm on the Bucks and then I'm also gonna be on
Washington and Seattle. Seattle is minus six and as app as my main picks and my little my little extras just for fun, Denver Giants and the Panthers are my Greg Strass. I would have thrown in the Titans winning as a Greg Strow, but everyone is on my side, and that's actually now they're the favorite over the Texans.
I don't even want to bother.
I think I have the Texans.
Forget that, forget that whole.
I think we have the Texans.
I have the Texans spinning. That's where we're winning.
When we're talking about whether, like the Texans backups can beat Mason Rudolph, you know what's at the end of the season and you know football is back.
We'll see a Sunday night