Welcome to NFL Daily, where sometimes our computer model breaks our heart. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freelan.
Do you get what I'm getting at here?
Yes, I know exactly what you're getting Right off the bat, I've looked at your computer model for the week. Yeah, this is the show every week where we make three picks against the spread. I hope it's not one of your three picks against the spread, but you do pick every game. The model picks every game against the spread. And I saw that your model not only takes the Buffalo Bills to cover against your Detroit Lions, you have the Bills winning out right in the game of the year.
Yeah. I don't really have a lot to say about that other than I hate it. I hate myself. It makes me crazy. I mean, I guess on some level then I don't lose in this game, but I also don't win. You know what I'm saying.
No, you win if the Lions win. I think lose if the Lions lose. Knowing you, you don't really care that your model gets no wrong.
To be fair, when I look at the like, I pick it and it's based on a whole bunch of stats, and sometimes I'm like, what on earth is so.
This is happens?
This is kind of the nightmare with AI. The the computers have taken over like they are sentient, the fact that they're picking the Bills over the lines. Actually, what are the kind of the underlying reasons, because I am quite surprised by that that on the road, your model, looking at all the numbers, has the Bills as a better team, because by a lot of numbers, the Lions are one of the best teams we've ever seen. So this is not going to be either one of our
three picks, but it is such a fascinating game. I am curious, like, are there any specific underlying reasons why you have the Bills winning well?
Number one, and first and foremost, the injury report for the Lions defense. I mean, when you have the twenty nineteen Pro Bowl team playing linebacker, things get a little dicey when you're facing Josh Allen. Uh. Yeah, that's the first reason. And even if they get some of the defensive lineman back, that's still a bad part of the defense to be banged up in and those are guys, I mean Alex Angeloni is not coming through that door.
He's linebackers will not be healthy this week.
So that's no, we know that, and I don't know about as we sit here right now, we don't have a confirmation that other guys like Zach Pascal, who else we're talking about, Aleeen McNeil, We don't know. Maybe they're I think we don't think he's on Zerike is playing right? And then is Taylor Decker.
Going to be bad? Looks like it full practice.
Yes, as a Lions fan, all the crosses.
Okay, so the linebacker position, yeah, is a.
Big But the reality is is the things that the Lions like to do. Josh Allen is really great at the Lion's paill out of man. Guess what Josh Allen does to me? Eighteen touchdowns, three interceptions. The Lions don't get a lot of pressure. Well, you could argue that the Bills could be tired based on the track meet they played with the Rams last week. They were in hurry up basically all of the second half. That's a lot of snaps. I mean they did only play fifty
four total snaps. That's about normal for them, but they were all hurry up snaps. That's wild. However, the lines aren't bringing a lot of pressure. They're still having their leading sack guy be Aiden Hutchinson, who hasn't played in like a bajillion week. So the fact is is that's the areas where things kind of deplete. If you're talking about fatigue. I don't know that's where that's where the model. Ok okay, that's where the model stands. Bill's sneaking out.
That gonna pressure in the quarnerback either, which would worry me for a Bills fan heading into this game. I like offense, I like a lot of points. I like agreed the over. I don't have a hot, you know, strong feeling. But I am just not going to pick against the Lions this year. Certain I don't want to pick again. I want to pick, I'm not, but that is not one of my three picks now this week. This week, let's look at the standings from last week. We got back on the winning track. Both you and
I went to and one. All right, you're two games back on the season, but we're we're both clear over five hundred yep, and we're feeling good. Let's go to our picks this week. I have to admit, and I don't know why this happened. For the first time all season, I struggled to get to three games.
I just didn't.
Usually I have ones just screaming at him. I gotta take them, love them, and then I have extras and I you know, I just I have so many. This one I struggled to get past like one or two. But I'm gonna have you start.
Okay, well, I'm gonna go ahead and take Denver. And I think, Denver, what are you looking at me? Because no, no, that was that one of yours?
No?
Oh good, Well that's kind of good. They are four point favorites at home. I like that number compared to some of the other numbers this week. Of course, I'd like a narrower gap. Three would be more fun, but whatever four will will be fine in this matchup. I think what I'm looking at from Indianapolis is a the things that this Denver defense is absolutely exceptional at. They're
really really strong against on the defensive side. And even if Riley Moss doesn't play, and he's a really big fan like he's been in a really excellent part of that secondary, it kind of doesn't matter because I'm not so worried about what Anthony Richardson's going to do on the types of passes that don't go to Patrick's ortan or they can't figure out. Plus they've had a week of rest. I think the middle of that defense is terrifying.
That's where Anthony Richardson likes to run. I just don't think this is a great matchup for what we've seen from.
Ar Okay, I like it. I gotta be better about a poker face.
So yeah.
Colleen Wolfe has talked about this that it was an adjustment period when she used to do the Around the NFL podcast and then she realized that's just resting Greg face, got it. You know, it's just I struggled to hide my emotion that look like a mat at the person or something. In this particular case. The reason why I maybe made a face, it's not you know, you never know what it is, right, It's not about you or your pick. It actually is because I'm like, I agree
with you. I have the Broncos covering. They're not one of my three. It's more that I've made the Broncos fan base so angry this week by not having bow Nicks in my top five Offensive Rookie of the Year.
I did see it.
It's just it's just going, It just keeps going. I don't have my mentions on on Twitter anyways. I'm not really checking in too often. They're more of a blue Sky guy these days. But there is a human part of me that would like to see them lose this game.
Yes, got it? Well that yeah, as long as it's not As long as that look isn't directed at me or my math, we're good.
And yeah, we do a show together that everyone can check out on YouTube as well, where it'll say Week fifteen picks from the NFL, but it's on NFL Network NFL Game Debut, and I have the Broncos covering as well, because I just think they're a better team on both
sides of the ball. If you tell me that your team is going to protect your quarterback better and it's going to get more pass rush than the other team on a like on an every week basis, and almost certainly in this matchup, then like I'm just going to take you to win probably, And they're they're better coach, I believe overall.
John Payton versus Gus Bradley not that even.
Yeah, but Also, I thought it was very smart they resigned Garatt Bulls right now. Just so everyone's clear, I've already started some draft prep. This is not a good offensive line draft class. There are like two that are Day one starters after that, Slim Pickens and Good. No, that is a smart thing for them to lock down right now so they have flexibility come draft time. They don't need to reach to try to because there's a ton of teams that need offensive line help.
Patrick Mahomes, New England Patriots.
A lot of teams, a lot of teams.
They signed Quinn Minors their guard before the start of the season. That's what Sean Payton tell me, Tom, Tom, spend big look at Cynthia.
She's such a helpful pro.
She's putting some news into the program that would no longer that would not have been there. Yes, Garrett Bull's getting a nice new deal from the Broncos. Okay, so the one pick that I did like right away was Viking's minus six point five.
I'm on that with you, all over that with you.
When I look at division games, especially when they're playing twice in a short period.
Maybe this is.
Stupid, but there's probably no scientific backing to that this at all, but I really feel it in my bones, and the two teams are not even, and we can say, just look at the records, they're not even in one of those two games. In a division matchup, especially when they're playing close, usually the bad team is gonna it's gonna cover, It might win the game outright, and it evens out and then then the other one what you expect is gonna happen, is gonna happen. So I always
picked games off of that. It was why partly I had the Steelers covering last week. I felt great about that number against the Browns. I was like, they just lost to the Browns. Good coaching staff. Now they're going back home. Are not gonna lose two straight to the Browns. I actually think they'll They'll play a very solid game, win comfortably. That was one of my two two wins last week. Very similar situation. The Vikings and the Bears just played. It was a three point game, it was
in Chicago. It was probably Campball Williams's best games of the season. Then you look at the defense for the Bears, which has been getting worse and worse and worse all year, and then you take matt Abrafleus out of the picture. I'm just saying last week they looked as bad as they have ever looked, and frankly, they weren't that good before. They're not getting a consistent pass rush, just personnel wise up front, and I think the Vikings will be able
to protect Sam Darnold. And yes, I actually think they missed matt Abraflus on the defensive side, because now you got Thomas Brown's been promoted so many times, you're running out a you know, offensive guys to run everything, and now on the defensive side, he took out ebra Flus. You've been picking up these guys for Eberflus's defense for years.
I just think the Vikings are humming right now, and I would put their over under on their points at about thirty one, and I just don't think the Bears can keep up in a shootout like that.
I'm with you. You need to teach Thomas Brown about the poker face, because I watch his pressers and he's just mad, really big mad in them, and I'm like, I don't know what to tell you. What did you think we're getting into? Plus DeAndre Swift has been on the injury report. It's not like they're getting could push from their run game anyways. So, yikes, this is a team that has allowed so like tons of sacks all of the unblocked pressures, and the Vikings bring the heat.
And they did a pretty good job against a couple of weeks ago.
But that is I think fifty fourths. I know it's the most sacks, but I think it's fifty four.
That's That's a bigger reason why I like the Vikings better because this coaching staff, who has all the stability in the world. Okay, what did they do to us last time? Let's fix it. They will fix it, all right. What's your second pick?
I know you're on the other side of this one. Let's be spicy Tampa Bay. Okay, let's do it Tampa now.
Not them.
Only am I on the other side in terms of I just disagree. We're going to go head to head four, we're man versus model. This is going to be one of my picks.
Wow, Okay, so it's three points, Yes, that's what I'm seeing. Is that what you're seeing anyways? Two and a half okay, two and a half, three whatever, that's it's okay.
I like it.
Both. When I'm looking at the opportunity here, I'm very worried about the injury report for the Chargers. I'm not sure if Lad McConkie is good to go.
JK.
Dobbins is justin Herbert Okay. I mean he maybe didn't go off in an air cast like other people, but he does not look like he was completely healthy. That scares me. That scares me in large part because when I'm looking at Baker Mayfield's ability to withstand pressure, his O line has really been helping him out past couple of weeks. He's been like not even hit at a high rate at all, and that's been very helpful. Plus, they are trying to get Mike Evans that one thousand
yard mark for the eleventh straight season. He's four hundred and ten yards away. Just needs a measly one oh two point five per game. Okay, But ultimately I think that is where one of the mismatches lies. And I'm worried about the running backs. But they still have Rashad White even if Bucky Irving isn't good to go, and they've been getting a lot of good push on the inside, where recently has been a vulnerable spot. Of the Chargers defense.
Yeah, those are all good arguments.
The Chargers offensive line a little weak on the inside too, and you could see Vita Vea and Klasure Canty having They have some.
Of the best names, like Vita Vea Klaijah Canty. There's fun.
You do make me a little worried about the Herbert factor now, obviously, if Herbert's status is at all in question, I'm flying away from this picking.
I thought you were going to say something very non PG there for a second half. I'm flying away.
I'm getting out of here, and I have to come up with a backup pick. But I assume he finished that game out. He's justin Herbert. I assume he's gonna.
I assume he's gonna play. But does that mean he's okay?
That is a worry. He has an ankle injury. He played through it well in Kansas City. Won't be as cold in this situation.
He will be in the.
Maybe so, but maybe the coldness was like ice, you know, kept it the swelling under control.
I just think the Chargers are a better team overall.
I think they're better coached. Sorry, Todd Bowles.
I think their quarterback is such a difference maker compared to Baker. I feel like Baker has been getting away with it. Of course he had last month of the season. He can't keep getting away with it, bad decisions, interceptions, fumbles. Everyone had this idea because you look at the total yards and touchdowns for the season, that he's having this great season. He's having now about the season that you
would expect. But if you look at just the last month, which has been against bad defenses for the most part, he's not seeing the field well, He's not making good decisions. And so that alone against this Chargers defense coming off a loss, and there is something just emotionally. When I saw Jim Harbaugh on the podium after that game and he was so mad and so miserable, and it was just talking about how he can't wait for them to respond, I was like, Oh, they're gonna win next week.
So that's also part of it. I'm stupid.
And see the reports are that there's a good chance lad Mconkee comes back. It sounds like he's going to be practicing. He is integral to what they are trying to do. But I do like how they were able to run the ball late against Kansas City, so Ultimately, I'm just doing it on recent form. Even though I've been on the Bucks all year. I picked them to win the NFC, so still think they still will. Of course, I actually think they're playing worriesome football on the offensive
side lately. So I like the Chargers in this game just on recent form. Okay, we're up against each other. I don't know if we've done that all year because we've been trying to give.
Our Yeah, but I feel like next week you're gonna be like, yeah, but he was hurt, Like I mean, I don't know.
That's like I'm know. I just just making this decision. Minus two and a half is what I see. I'm making it no matter what happens. Now, if he misses the game entirely, I'm giving a backup pick. But perfect right now, Okay, I like it. I'm going Washington, as my dad says, touchdown. Yeah, I like that, wash over New Orleans. Yeah, that's pretty good. I have a ten point win for them.
What I like. My models don't love double digits. It's just very hard to do in terms of how models work. And so when you get I have two double digit wins this week by two different teams, which is that's wild. Minnesota is the other one, just so you know. But I'm looking at the opportunity for Washington against New Orleans with who's playing let's make a list. I mean, that's probably easier. There's just a lot of a lot of
missing pieces on this New Orleans offense and defense. So Marshaun Lattimore revenge just kidding, Yeah, No, that's a good one, Like he's probably gonna play, which increases the opportunity to stop the pass. The guy leads the league and passes defense since he became an NFL pro twenty seventeen, So that's great. But you know, I also think that you know, Jaden Daniels now has a moment to regroup after the
start of the season. You know, they had their buy their fift Kingsbury people are like, oh, does this numbers all go down? Well, this is a defense where it doesn't matter if Cliff Kingsbury's tendencies are that he kind of shows everyone everything too early. I don't think this defense has enough juice to kind of stop the multiple threats that are Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, who presumably fully healthy now, so you know those are the two.
I like that.
I agree with you on that one. I do think that's a Latimer revenge game. It's kind of funny though, like who does even cover on on the Saints, like Kevin Austen, Like it's crazy how deep into their depth chart there are Marcus Valdez scanting certainly, although that might not be the best, you know, just a pure burner against a guy coming off a hamstring injury. But they're coming off to buy, they're rested, they're more talented, and the most important thing is yeah, it's either Jay Hayne
or or Spencer Rattler at quarterback. They're competing supposedly at practice, which is never a great sign before a regular season game, So that one makes all the sense in the world to me.
In fact, that'll be my backup pick. So if you actually care about.
These things, and since we do keep track of the records, if Justin Herbert does not play, I'll go just go with you on Washington minus seven. My final pick, which I'm guessing is your third double digit score of the week, is I went through all the games. I just didn't have a lot of hot like picks against the spread, like Bengals okay in Tennessee. I like the Ravens minus sixteen and a half wherever they're at, Like, I kind
of love it. It's against Tommy DeVito, who was the quarterback the last time there was a spread this high in the NFL. On game deyview I with a straight face, I was like, how is this game gonna go? I put Ravens forty four Giants six. So that's the type of game I think it is. I think the Ravens needed that buy worse than any team in the entire NFL. They were just tired. They've been in big game after big game after big game after big game. Why are
you laughing? Forty four to six? Yes, I mean it is silly to take up minus sixteen and a half, but that's that's why they made the numbers so high. The reason I really want to take it, though, is I really think their defense was coming around before before the bye. So you got an improved pass rush and an improved secondary against Tommy DeVito and there's no one healthy on this offensive line. Their backups as backups as backups are hurt. Let's go Ravens forty four to six.
They cover sixty and a half easy.
If it's either total here as forty three, right, sure, I love the over for that, love the over, love it.
The Ravens are one of the best offenses I've ever seen, and it's against This isn't one of the worst defenses I've ever seen. It's not even a bottom five defense this year. It's probably like twenty third. So it's one of the best offenses against a bad defense and what I would say is the worst offense in the league right now against an improving defense. And it's a team that's rested and what needs to win wants to win. The atmosphere is going to be terrible in the metalwlands
like that. It's going to be Ravens fans and booing Giants fans. So I take it back. Forget about not liking picks this week, but I just talked myself into this. This was the one I had to search for. But now I like it a lot. It's actually it's actually the Chargers you made me worried about. But I feel great about Ravens and Vikings.
I mean, I'm with you that. I mean I have a thirteen point win for the Ravens.
I get it. Though your model it's model.
The problem. The problem when you model things is that it's very rare for a projection pre game to be that it just doesn't happen very often because you know, teams will rest, teams will like maybe Derek Henery isn't playing in the second half. Like there's just some things that happen when when teams get up big this late in the season that are at they throw a little monkey wrench in there.
They're gonna want to get the MVP for Lamar Jackson. I'm not like Rashota, and yet it happens all the time. For instance, like I'm just looking at last week. No, no, I'm not looking at the results.
I'm looking at the like you remember ahead of the games, right, Like it's it's rare to have. It's rare for me to have a thirteen point win projective for anyone.
Right.
My point is like there are a couple of big time blowouts every week.
For forty nine Ers Bears.
Was one last week in the end, Vikings would have covered a sixteen point spread against the Falcons, you know a couple of weeks ago it was harder to find. But like Commander's Titans, that's a big time blowout like sure Bill's forty nine ers. These things happen, and I think this is where it's gonna happen. They go this week like a THEA.
You've done it again.
You know it's it's all you? You you are my friend. Wait before we leave here, Yeah, how do you feel about your old coach going down to UNC? Are you now tar Hill blue? Did you go buy some like our guy? I'll tar Hio blue stuff? Are you like a Michael Jordan lover? Now?
I am excited about it, just as a football fan. I wanted him out of the media and back on the sideline as almost as badly as he did, because I got the sense he wasn't really putting his all into the media game, and I was a little disappointed by that.
But he's born to be a coach.
I actually had on my friend Ali Connelly on the Thursday night football recap show he talked about because he had broken this Bellot story and so it talked a lot about it there, and.
Uh, I think it'll be cool.
I think it'll be weird, and I just hope he is, like imagine as enough good players that and as enough good offensive coaches that he can out scheme the hell out of like Dabo Sweeney and whoever the hell else is in the a CC.
It'll be great.
I think he'll be g Can you imagine Bill going to like someone's house being like, hello, come play for my team.
I don't think he's going to do a lot of that. You know, Dion has set up this new model.
I get it, but like Van doesn't.
Go to anyone's house either, They come to him. That's what I would come to Diana.
I would come to Bill too, But like, can you even imagine if that were like a thing you like, come to your house like thank you for having me? Do you want to? Like? I can't imagine having an energy of like a Dobbels means like we'll get you this, we'll get you that, and blah blah blah.
Nope.
I think Bill will be like do your job next, man up.
Okay, So I heard a comparison of like there's multiple Bills though, right, there's the Bill that you see in front of the podium. There's Bill as a coach, but then there's Nantucket Bill. You know I've seen him and maybe you have huh wow, Kyle, my fiance, his family, lives in Nantucket in the summer. That's a that's a podcast for another time. I want to hear what Nantucket.
Bill is like, super nice, nicest person.
Maybe you get a little bit of both because it's like it's college. It's not quite as hard, it's not quite as stressful as the NFL. Maybe you get a little chiller kind of it's wearing his color, wearing his polos.
None of a good job, UNC. None of us would have been talking about North Carolina football. But and now it's all I can read. Arthur Smith, this, Ben Johnson bull like does it? How does this tar? He'll feel? How does that target? But like mate? Good for them.
Lawrence Taylor one of the greatest Bill Belichick players ever, probably the greatest.
Yes, well, I guess there was one other guy.
He went to quarterback, but that one went to Michigan, you know, and he he was on offense, and Bill doesn't really care about offense. That's the one thing I'm a little worried about is that he finds the right Matt Patricia. Smart guys that are.
Sure Matt Patricia will come in there and do the offense just like you did for the Patriots. For you last year.
Huh, I really will be a unc fan. I want to. I wanted to if I wanted to go well too.
I think this will be a happier kindler Bill and anyone Donaldson Like.
Are you freaking kidding me? Like I wouldn't wait waiting my whole life for this, and now like, are you freaking kidding me?
How about?
How about if you're the coach of duke? Who is the coach of Duke? It's no longer David Cutliffe anymore. No, I don't know who I should know this.
This is great.
It's Manny dsh oh oh okay, oh, Mario Cristobal, He's going to be like facing sometimes. This will be This will be a lot of fun. Uh, It's always fun with Cynthia. We will be back next week and we will be back on Sunday. The recap show, No byes. It's a big fifties Dame recap show with Patrick, Kevin Patrick coming at Chuck coming onto this show as well, and of course Nick shook.
Look when when Bill.
Belichick back in the saddle.
I already said that on Thursday. Look when we're going up against each other because we want that title. Yea at the end of the season. That's when you know football is back. This Sunday