Welcome to NFL Daily, where fraud Watch never ends.
It's a way of life.
I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with.
My friend Cynthia Freeland.
Yes, we will get to one of the main characters of fraud Watch all season long a little later with my picks.
How are you?
I'm good?
How are you?
It is great to see you as always.
You know, the studio feels a little emptier this week because you know, you don't have my son, but he is part of the standings where if you're watching on the YouTube show, we can look at our records last week Cynthia and I, you know, struggle a little bit one and two. Walker's in first place now with an undefeated record on the season.
Does he is he also like a crypto investor?
Ah god, this is what happens if you if you have a child and they take your phone and they just start messing around with your phone and they selfies.
Doesn't matter. We're gonna bounce back this week. Cynthia.
What a lovely photo of you, by the way.
Thank you twenty I's polling a.
Smug one of you on game deview where you're like looking like like, but but this is this is actually a very nice photo.
This is much better.
And yeah, we went one and two last week, but we're up on the seasons rail, I'm a couple games ahead of you. You better be trying extra hard to make correct picks this week.
All right.
I will start the picks off this week a little different than what I normally do.
Let's hear it.
It's a big spread. Oh, when I get to a team, I like, you don't know where I'm going. I'm going Steelers minus six and a half.
You did, you know? I thought? So? Yeah?
Well really okay, only because I love I love me some Jamis. Yeah, and it's tough to go against him. Obviously, the Browns just won this game a couple of weeks ago. But when two teams play in the span of a few weeks, I definitely like one of those teams to even it up division game. Alex Heigsmith is back. This pass rush is like the Avengers. I don't think people understand how good Nick Herbig is. Like, he is one of the best pass rushers in the league right now, and he's on the same team as TJ.
Watt.
And now you add in Alex Heismith and Hayward is playing like an All Pro and that matchup on a short week for Cleveland. I always pay attention to the extra rest and then the back to back road games for Cleveland. So you're coming from Denver, you go back to Cleveland, You're back on the road again. The Steelers obviously need this game, and it's a big number. The number, to me, Cynthia, it's almost begging everyone to take the Browns.
I have a feeling I could be wrong, but that the public is gonna be on the Browns in this game with that big a number at six and a half, and I'm not taking the bait here. I think the Browns defense is meh. That the numbers don't lie. It's an average defense. Everyone thinks it's a great defense. It's an average defense. And you're gonna be dropping Jamis back to pass probably forty to fifty times in this game. Again, it's the best pass rush I believe in the NFL.
Because the Browns have no running game at all. I could even see the Browns winning this like leading this game in the second quarter and I'm sweating it out, but the turnovers will pile up, and I like like a nice thirty four to nine two type of win for the Steelers minus six and a half.
Okay, Okay, I'm gonna do something that feels a little mean, but I don't care about me and I want to be right.
Yes, I'm going to take Chicago in the points.
Oh, I like that. That's one of my picks. I'm gonna We're gonna join forces.
Okay, good.
I feel like it's a little mean because, like, so many bad things have happened to the Niners this season, so I kind of feel like I'm like piling it on them.
But to slip it on its head, you're being nice to the Bears fans. I mean, so many things that happened to them for a decade straight fair.
Fair but I mean, and I've seen North but yeah, no, I think I think that Number one, we've seen Caleb Williams be a lot better against the Blitz since Week eleven, which is when Thomas.
Brown took over.
We've seen the run game improve, We've seen a lot of great things there. And on the other side of things, things just like aren't getting better for the Niners. I mean, Christian McCaffrey now on IR same with Jordan Mason. Sure, of course Kyle Shanahan can pull like a rabbit out of his hat in terms of the run game, but like, what about all the other parts?
Right, Isaac Garranda comes in there and maybe he'll be fine, but running behind Trent Williams isn't practicing.
To be fair, Isaac Garendo could be like in buy ma geed in for fantasy, you could probably consider playing him, But other than that, I think it's fade fade away.
Yeah, they are at a point in the season where the numbers are still part of the forty nine ers team that used to be and that team doesn't exist anymore. And you didn't mention the reason I'm going for him. And this is first time in a couple weeks that we are joining forces because this was my number two pick on the day the Bears.
It's the fired coach principle.
I mean, I know we already had it happened once this season, Yeah.
But like that was a last week, was like that was bad?
What when the coach said that he kind of doubled down on everybody makes mistakes in life. Yes, so like doubling down being like, hey, it was the right decision like that's a wild thing to say, right, Like, it was clear I thought CBS made a mistake in the broadcast because I'm like, there's no way or like, you know, the graphics thing didn't hit and you know there's a lot of technology involved. No, no, no, no, CBS was on top of it. I retract my statement about the broadcasters.
It was the coach. But to double down on that and the press are after that just shows you. I mean, if that's what he's willing to say publicly, what was it like in the actual Well.
We have reporting that Jalen Johnson there at the cornerback for the Bears after Eberflus in the locker room, was trying to say, hey, we appreciate how hard you guys are going, like he started yelling at Eberflues. So we've already seen a tangible difference since Thomas Brown took over, and so that's one fired Coude. They have played their best three games of the season on offense in a row. They outgained the Green Bay Packers, that's a nine win team.
They got to over time against the Vikings, that's a ten win team. They were in that game again to the Lions.
I will take thirty seconds left that to take the win.
But oh my goodness, not great, right, So I'm all about the fired coach principle.
It's worked already twice this season. We saw it work for the Saints last time around with Rizzy And do you think you want to check some injury situations for the Bears. But it does sound like all their players that are key DJ Moore have a chance to play.
J Moore and DeAndre Swift are If they are both out, then maybe that.
Right, keep an eye on that, But just the vibes are that probably Why are they getting point?
Are the Niners getting seventy points? That's the thing that's crazy.
At this point in the season, you just can forgive this forty nine Ers team is four point.
Here's the thing.
I wouldn't be shocked if the forty nine Ers find a way to win this game at the end somehow, because that's just who the Bears are at this point. But it'll be by one point, it'll be by two points. You'll cover that number and will come out on top.
I like it. I like it.
I feel really good about that. And yeah, Fred Warner is playing through a broken foot. We don't know why is he playing with a broken foot. It is getting to that point in the season too, that the forty nine ers I think are gonna start like shutting some of these guys down. Yes that are healthy, they're not you shut them down. You're not quite there yet. But man, that Kashanan just looks angry and he looks miserable. So that's my second pick. We're already back to you for
your second pick. Since that's my second pick, Minnesota. I want Minnesota. Oh five points, Okay, I.
Don't really like five.
There's a lot of weird like four five point spreads this week, which blah. But I think Minnesota it's a good one against Atlanta. They're hosting Atlanta, it's at home Atlanta.
Yeah.
Sure, they had a third of their season long sack total last week with five. I don't think that that's a real true indication of what's going on. But even so, we saw Sam Darnold have like a one thirty point three passer rating against pressure last week against the Cardinals. Am I saying Minnesota's perfect? No, Am I saying Atlanta's bad?
Kinda.
I'm saying that their turnover prone. This has been a weird skid for them. I mean, Kirk Cousins hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in like three weeks.
Ten turnovers.
I that's not a good that's a bad ratio.
I without even realizing this is the Kirk Cousins return to Minnesota game, without thinking about that, I just started wondering, is this potentially the last start for Kirk Cousins this year? If he threw like three interceptions in this game against a great Brian Flores defense that mixes you up, you would think they would think about going to Pennix, and it would I am not rooting for that.
I want your pick to be right.
I want them to cover, But I think it would be heartbreaking for Kirk Cousins' career as a starting quarterback to end in Minnesota getting bed. So what I am hoping for in this situation is that the Falcons defense reverts back to who they've been all year, and that it's thirty seven to twenty six, and you cover your spread and Kirk is fine enough and h and it's not that depressing of a loss at least for Kirk.
You know, I don't know he can cry all the way to the bank. The man has like the most guaranteed money ever. So I'm not like crying for.
Okay, he's that a great career. We'll say that all the time though about like, hey, he's got a lot of money. I don't feel bad for them as there's still people they bleed, they have emotions.
Wow are you going there? Listen, everyone needs a moment of empathy.
Egg.
But I will say another quarterback would not have been given this leash of three games with this many turnovers before something would have been I mean even Aaron Rodgers. They were like, are gonna go with him for the rest of the No one's even asked.
That question about Kirkhusbins.
They're asking there not really, Rahem's pushing pushing back, He's staying strong. We'll see if he stays strong. After Cynthia delivers another winner and they cover this thing, I'm finishing up with another spread in that point range, and I'm going with another favorite.
I love this one, Miami minus f and a half.
For a second, I thought you were gonna say the Saints. I'm like, what, No, I don't want to go Yeah, no, stay away from that one for me.
I don't like that one at all. In fact, I kind of like the Giants, but I agree, why bother I'm not bothering. I'm not bothered with either one. I just hate love me some Dolphins minus five and a half. We've been telling you about fraud watch all season long. When it comes to the Jets, they are three and nine on the season, Cynthia, I saw a stat that they have been favored in nine of those games and they've only won three of them. They are the first team ever to accomplish that feat.
To be congratulation.
That was actually courtesy of my friend Danny Hifitz at The Ringer Fantasy Football, so I want to give him credit for that stat. That's a crazy stat. Finally, the numbers have adjusted. Five and a half seems like a normal number to me. They're going up on the road against a road team, but I do think there's a
lot of reasons to believe this is a blowout. The last Jets offensive game over three hundred yards was October twenty seven, they are a bad was against the Patriots, by the way, and they lost that game in the division on the road. Like they're gonna lose this one. Last week, the only reason they were in the game against Seattle was special teams. They got about fourteen points worth of value from their special teams.
That's the only reason they were even in it.
The Dolphins have extra rest love that they're coming off a Thursday night game, they're at home, and then the injury situation is very problematic for the Jets.
No Sauce Gardner at practice.
Early in the week, no Briessee Hall at practice early in the week, and no Elijah Vera Tucker early in the week, and Morgan Moses and another tackle on their team is very questionable. The Dolphins have been hearing all this talk about oh, you're soft your so I think this is a good team. I think they're going to respond to a bad loss. And they've had two very similar matchups in my mind at home in very recent memory.
Their last two home games were against the Raiders and against the Patriots, two of the other worst teams in the league along with the Jets. What do they do in those games? They won comfortably sixty eight points. They put on the board on offense in those two games only gave up thirty four. I think their defense is good enough that the Jets just aren't gonna go crazy on anyone. The Dolphins defense is okay, but the Dolphins
offense is gonna go up and down the field. I'm putting their over under of their points for me, it's about thirty five. They're gonna put about thirty five on the board. Do you think Aaron Rodgers can keep up? No way, I like a little thirty four. You're thirty five to like fourteen. This thing's a blowout. Fraud Watches is on. It's been on all year for the Jets.
Look, I mean Aaron Rodgers turned forty one, so I mean if he was a pumpkin at forty, he's a rotten pumpkin at forty one, right, I mean obviously in a whole week. It's anyways. No, I'm with you on that. I think that ever really comfortable win for them. Are you ready for my last one?
This? Yes?
This is the uh break Greg Hearts Special.
Oh it's the Cardinals.
Yeah, I'm no one taking the Seahawks.
Oh you're taking the Seahawks. Yeah, well that's taking them.
With the parts too.
I like that.
You think the Cardinals are gonna win though you told.
Me that I did, But I'm rooting for that to be wrong. Sometimes the head and the heart are pretty off. And when you look at the spread, the Cardinals are favored in this game right by three right now?
Oh it went up to three. I thought it was two and a half. Fine by meal, get even better with that depends on what. Yeah, where it's really you're looking at.
I'm looking at DraftKings and it's great minus three. That's what we've been going off. I'll see long on this show. So that's where they're at, and I love it. It just happened a couple weeks ago. They beat him sixteen to six. It's going to be a defensive game.
I think, what do you think I have twenty Oh sorry, excuse me, I have twenty three to twenty one. Okay, so forty five total points, which is slightly over. I think it's forty four and a half where the line is right now in this game. I'm very interested to see if they can figure out how to stop Jackson Smith and Jigba that he runs exactly where they have huge vulnerabilities. I don't think it's two weeks that they've shored those up. And now you even have Kyler Murray
throwing turnovers. Why are you turning the ball over in two games, he had the same number of turnovers as the ten before Thereby, I mean just not just not an easy that's a really hard way to win. I know their defense looked a little bit better last week. I understand. I'm not saying they're not capable of doing it. This is I'm picking an underdog here for a reason, But you know it's it's I just think there are
too many ways for Seattle, especially post By. They've really on defense, they're getting healthier, they're getting you chant woe su back like, it's pretty good.
It's pretty good stuff for you.
I love it. Look you have them winning straight up. So if people like a little value, you could also look at them.
Yeah, it's even more valuable there.
I'm just saying, like, I'll just take the points because we why not right in our little standings. I don't get extra points for picking them straight up?
Now, you think so, why would I?
Why wouldn't I give myself a little insurance?
You should you're gonna come back, Cynthia, you're over five hundred. Not worried, we're doing well, Not worried. We got I had a little bit of a speed bump Hey, we might have been doing this in the playoffs.
You know this is this has been a hit the youth, obviously.
You tube numbers are cranking up, the podcast numbers are cranking up. A couple other games. I kind of like, just I'll put some extra picks out there. I got to last week. I do like, I kind of do like the Giants plus four and a half. I'm with you, I kind of like the Cowboys. Actually, when I saw the injury report and Orlando Brown is not going to play for the now, well that would change my mind.
But five and a half points, that would also probably change the line to be fair.
That maybe maybe I take that back the Cowboys.
It doesn't give me a good feeling, but my gut says that's too many points to give the Bengals. But what I do feel good about as an extra one is just the Chargers plus four. I just think that's a field goal game one way or another. Their their defense is actually better your Chiefs defense right now.
So I like, how do you feel about how do you feel about that twelve point spread in day Away Eagles?
Yeah, day Away?
I think that I think Bryce Young it sounds crazy, but he's playing too well, and the Eagles have been playing these big time games. Maybe just a little bit of a letdown spot. Maybe Bryce just hits a touchdown at the end to cut it from seventeen to ten.
You know what I mean. It's not really close, but that's a stay away.
From also the Eagles. How like crazy is this? Those like four of their next last five games are home.
I love this Eagles team. May you just sleep in their own bed? Yeah, comfortable in Philadelphia.
It's crazy how how good this Eagles team is right now? Feel good about my super bullpick? It's I think it's a little scary. We don't feel good about that. Why because I know in your heart you want something. I'm mary think what I want. I'm just saying I'm happy that I like. I'm I'm good with being right too. So Cynthia's picks to recap. She finished up with a golden Seattle Seahawks plus three on the road in Arizona.
She's got the Minnesota Vikings favored by five and a half at home against the Falcons, and then we are joining forces on the Bears plus four in Santa Clara. My other two picks on top of the Bears plus four are Steelers minus six and a half. I feel like I'm I'm zagging a little bit where people will be zigging. I like this pic and I also like the Dolphins covering the five and a half at home against the Jets. That's it, Cynthia, we did it. You're
moving on to one of your million other jobs. Check us out on NFL Game Deview. That show also goes up on YouTube as just week fourteen picks. I've been noticing a lot of people are watching it on YouTube too.
Game day views on YouTube it is and.
They don't call it game Deview, but people were complaining in my comments that it wasn't up on Thanksgiving week, and then I went and looked at yeah, we're getting a lot of you shut up. But also check out Cynthia's YouTube channel, Numbers Game, and of course check out NFL Daily and subscribe to the the YouTube and like us, you know, on your Apple phone or Spotify whatever. It's gonna be one of my favorite people in the world. I'm looking forward to spending tells of the season with it.
I will I will tell him and I will let him watch this show where yes, he is in first place at at least for one week. I don't know if I get I didn't let that boy just stay there in the art m H. Yes, when you're getting outshined by your own progeny, you know football is back.
Let's see on Sunday m
Hm.