Welcome to NFL Daily, where if we're fifteen and three over the last few weeks.
We're gonna honk about it.
I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio with my friend who is on fire right now, Cynthia Freeland. Let's go Wooo, how are you good? I think you need to do this more. Just a little bit of a tip for your brand. When your picks are hot, just just talk about it a lot, and when they're not, just don't say anything. Because we're hot right now. When I said fifteen and three, I went back. I did the numbers, I did the addition over the last three
weeks combined. He yeah, we are fifteen and three. Great, you went three and oh let's go in week eleven after I had a couple undefeated weeks, but I stayed on the winning side, so I'm happy enough. And we're both nineteen and fourteen on the season, so that's pretty good as well.
So let's keep this hot streak going. So let's do it.
We pick three games against the spread each and every week. The last couple of weeks we've been on the same side and those have done well. We'll see if that happens today, you give me your first pick.
I mean, if something is working, I don't think that you stray from it. And I actually believe and my math actually supports picking against the Cowboys. Like she's doing it again. I struggled with this. If it ain't broke, don't forge, you're going to Okay, So there's a couple of things here. The line is large. It is ten ten and a half for Washington home, right, Okay, Washington's at home. However, there's a couple of things here that are a really big problem for the Cowboys, namely the
run game. They have Brian Robinson junior back. They have Austin Eckler, who, by the way, the Cowboys also give up the most receiving yards to the running back position. It's twelve point seven is the average in terms of YAK per catch two running.
Backs, and they're great.
That is what Eckler does.
So when I'm looking at this opportunity here in Cliff Kingsbury, I know he knows the.
Narrative about him. The narrative is.
After nine weeks, the blub blue boo blah, right, like things go downhill. Yeah, Okay, five and a half points lest per game. I see that the giveaways they double. Also see that you know how you stop giveaways? Run the football. Yeah, and you know what Jane Daniel does really well, and you know what Brian Robinson Junior does really well, runs between the tackles.
You know what all of these guys do. They keep it on the ground.
So I think also with Zertz there, and we know that zach Ertz is someone that Cliff Kingsbery.
Really loves to target.
Okay, this is I'm in m Maybe you've convinced me. I don't know.
I left him off my backline.
We've been we've been rolling over the Cowboys or saying they're the worst team in the NFL. Watch that Monday night game and it wasn't close in the end.
Nonother clue. Yeah, if they're not even playing Trey Lance.
One way you could interpret this is that they think that they if they play him, things could get even worse from a losing the locker room standpoint.
That's one way. That's because he's bad.
Yeah, I think I don't think they trust him for whatever reason.
Do you think it's worse than what?
Anyways, my point is is, if that's what's going on, if we're at a place where we don't even want to try, what is that telling you?
Yeah, everything about this team is a absolute and total mess. And yet there is something about when I saw that ten and a half line, I was like, it just felt too felt too easy this week. But I had to choose a side. I definitely have Washington. I have them written down. They're put potentially in the box. Maybe they're my third pick. I'll think about it.
I don't care.
I like playing, but there was something about it that I thought this Cowboys defense is playing a little bit better lately, and everyone's going to think they just roll and could it just be eight or nine points of division?
I actually think most people think they won't like I think that this is a tasty snack because I think Cowboys fans want it back in on the party.
I might just do it just to show my fahit in you and the system that we've been on. I only you know when I'm doing well, and picked been on a good streak lately. Yeah, if you go check out game deview, they keep back against the spread as well, and we're both well over five hundred. I'm like over twenty over five hundred now for seasons, that's good. The one game that I really was sure about this week that I was like, oh, I gotta take that was actually Titans plus eight.
And a half. I like the Titans this week.
It is giving me Broncos against the Chiefs a couple of weeks ago vibes.
Now it's two lesser teams.
But I just don't think the Texans are worthy of being favored by that much against anyone, especially not a division opponent. I know it's a new coaching staff, so we can't take too much away from.
The division thing.
But I don't have many like rules in terms of my picks, but I do think you have to earn being that big of a favor, and at some point you got to accept Texans fans and people that are hoping for something different, like myself, like my son Walker, who was CJ Stroud in Fantasy.
It's like, at some point you got to look.
At the numbers Walker, CJ, come on, you.
Gotta just recognize he's only had two top twelve Fantasy weeks all season. At some point you gotta accept the team that we see every week that is their team, and that's just offensively, it's not the team that we imagine the Texans to be. It's not the team I want. They were actually making a sweat out that Cowboys game just a little bit. I never thought the Cowboys offense would get there, so I always felt okay, but the Texans offense was bad.
They're funky.
They're twenty fourth in the league on offense right now, third on defense, so I really trust their defense and that's why they'll probably win this game. But to me, they're similar to the Titans. Titans twenty eighth in the league on offense, this is Dvoway eleventh on defense. Titans stop the run. You make the Texans one dimensional. If they're able to stop the run against Joe Mixon, the pass rush then gets to CJ.
Stroud. They're in the same division.
I'm not saying the Titans are gonna win, but I do think they'll cover eight and a half and it wouldn't shock me if the Titans won this game in the end. I still't believe in the Texans right now.
It's just a weird thing about the Titans that they have these good metrics, but then they allow every single time an opponent gets into the red area to score.
And they never cover either. That's a problem.
But I'm just like, Okay, no, I still like it.
Whatever, No, you don't have to like it. It's fine. This is the one I felt good about, and that's fine. It was like last week, the one I felt best about. I was wrong. That was my one out. You gotta go with how you feel. And I know it hasn't totally shown up in the final score, but I promise you Will Levis has been a better version of Will Levis the last two weeks. Yeah, maybe the best version
of Will Levis we've seen. Taking a lot of sacks, so he'll probably do that on Sunday, but not making big mistakes and making good throws when he is throwing it. So I just think this is gonna be a game like all the other Texans games in the division against the Jaguars, against the Colts that they just sweat out into the end. And it's a final position game, and so I like getting in the eight and a half. Give me your second.
Pick, my second pick.
I'm sticking with a theme of being bowld this week. You know which team hasn't covered all season long, the Chiefs. You know who's gonna cover this week?
Wow, the Chiefs with eleven points, that's a lot.
I don't care. I think this is what happens when you lose a game. People are like, oh no, trap game? Is it over?
Are they not? What's gonna Oh no, Patrick Mahomes, Oh my god, what's gonna happen?
No?
Uh uh.
This is where the Kareem hunt and maybe even Isaiah Pacheco situation.
Being able to run against the Panthers defense.
Yeah.
Dj Warnam was good and against the Giants and they've had.
A week off.
Okay, still the same team, Like you know, bad defense.
Yeah, the defense is not great. It's decidedly ungreat. So even though Chubahabber's coming off a great game, even though eleven is a lot of points to surrender, I don't care. I think this is where Patrick Mahomes says, you don't think I can play on the East Coast.
You think it is blah blah blah blah blah. You're worried about the Kicker situation. I don't care.
We're gonna just do. We're gonna go out there and it's just eleven points.
No, I love it.
I love it because it's what I want to see when on a whole rant about it in the previous show of like can you just looked like the Chiefs? Everyone's give me one? Yeah, thirty five point game, this is the spot to do it. Great matchup. Also a tough matchup for Bryce Young on the other side. Maybe the pass rush for the Chiefs isn't great, but the secondary will mix it up quite a bit.
They'll send some pressure at him.
I don't have a strong take, but I'm definitely on your side on this one, So I like that. I'm going with your Lions, speaking of a heavy favorite as my second pick. All right, Like I said this week, even though I've been feeling it lately, the numbers didn't speak to me as much this week. This was a solid number two, and I'm still scrambling about number three.
The reason why I went with minus seven and a half for the Lions is not just because they're one of the best teams we've ever seen through ten weeks. At this point, we can just say that, right, I can't. You're making that, Jim from the office, look at the camera there.
I know I just did. I mean, it's just.
And I know you know Aaron Shotts's numbers. I don't know if those are competitors to yours, but they have historical data of like their DVOA through ten weeks, they're the number three so far all time, behind the seven Patriots and one of those Washington teams in the nineties.
Okay, so that's number one.
But the reason why I really liked the seven and a half was I think the matchups really bad for the Colts. How did the Colts win last week? Really difficult throws?
Anthony Richardson went played lights out. This was the best game he's played in his career.
Two hund and seventy two passing yards and his first time having a completion percentage overexpected ever.
Okay, that's how they won, and it's because that's how they had to win against the Jets, because their run game wasn't making it happen. Against the Jets, Jonathan Taylor had one of his worst games of the whole season. Anthony Richardson quietly had one of his least successful games on the ground in his career. Now they hit the
design runs on the goal line and that's massive. They are going to be a really good red zone team, which is why I think the number is as low, even as it is, but you think about the matchup. I think the one way you could beat the Lions is a running game that can help support. But their fourth and success rate against in the last month, they're a really good run stopping team. This is a team that likes to play a lot of man coverage. I think you're gonna have to beat them through the air
again through low percentage passes. You're probably gonna have to be playing from behind because the Colts defense is nothing great. They just gave up twenty seven to the Jets. You know, they couldn't run on the Jets, So I think the Colts are okay. This isn't gonna be Jaguars versus Lions or anything. I'm thinking it's more like a thirty four to eighteen game.
And you know what, you.
Think, pretty darn closed.
I mean, no, that was thirty five points last week. I just mean in the end, maybe it's a ten point game in the fourth quarter, you're not like not like sitting back and just got it riding this thing out. But I think the Lions have too much and you get Richardson having to pass so much.
I think that's a bad recipe.
The one thing I will say about the Lions and what happened with the Jags is I'm looking at this team and I think one of their strategies is to work out some of the kinks. So I think part of that last week's game against the Jags was to I mean, sorry against the Texans prior to that, was to get Jared Goff back in rhythm or whatever you want to say. And so that's why I think they kept being aggressive in this game. There is something that they could look to kind of get knocked their rust
off a little bit, and that's Jared Goff. All nine of his interceptions have come against his z oone defense, and nobody plays more zone than the Bolts. So I agree with you. I actually think the Lions could keep scoring in that case, just because to me, like that's an opportunity to they do. This is I don't there are no words, because it is not something I'm used to in my lifetime.
But yeah, the Lions are good.
I mean they're not just good.
Cynthia, for those who don't know, it's a diehard Lions fan, and I've seen her struggle.
It's really hard, it's really really cool.
It's a tricky spot they're in now because now they're like I just.
Wish these were week eighteen, right, They're not quite.
Like where Serena way where she said I'm only a story when I lose, which is a tough place to be. The Chiefs are in that place, right. The lines aren't quite there. But at this point, anything short of a Super Bowl is a little bit disappointing, which is a tough spot to be. You just got to get to the one seat. I think they're really handling success well.
I think they cover seven and a half. What is your final pick?
Okay, so my final pick is Minnesota minus three and a half. I just think this number isn't right. I know it's in Chicago. I'm aware that the Bears almost knocked off the Packers last week. I understand that they have a new offensive corner. Hey anyone heard that before. But I also know that the Minnesota Vikings and Aaron Jones are sitting here being like, ain't no way we're gonna get knocked out of this playoff wild card situation. Ain't no way we're going to like let the Packers
back into this situation. Three and a half is one of the numbers, one of the lower numbers on the entire week. This is a weird week with a lot of big numbers, so I felt a little bit more comfortable at just a little bit over a few goal as opposed to the Denver minus five and a half, which I also really like. And it was between those two for me. But I think Minnesota they win by
at least four. I think that it's their defense and the fact that their defense is very, very good against the run, where a Chicago's defense, especially without Andrew Billings, you can run all over these fools. So this is a situation where I just think Minnesota it's they out coach on both sides of the football the Bears.
That's a great call the coaching matchup because Thomas Brown, I think did a great did a great job first week as his offensive corner. But it's a whole different matchup having to go against this Brian Flores defense, and I think they're going to be ready for the scrambles that Caleb Williams of. They'll actually have a week on tape of what Thomas Brown did, which will help them out.
I think I'm gonna go with you.
Let's go Okay, let's go. Let's be together, because yeah, you kind of made up my mind. I was debating between two games at the end, which for either Minnesota or just a gut feel that the Packers are a better team than the forty nine ers, and that would have been my fourth pick.
And I know for a fact you're not on that side.
Anyways, it doesn't matter, but you help make make up my decision that my third pick will also be Minnesota minus three and a half. I've been fading the Bears all year. It's mostly worked. Last week it very much did not work. They were outstanding on offense, their defense was problematic. I do think the Vikings will be able to run the ball a little bit on Chicago and potentially get a lead because you're not gonna have to score a ton, so they can be patient with the
running game. I do worry a little bit about Sam Darnold against some of the coverage mixes that they can show you. And the Bears have a pretty good pass defense, but their past rush has not been nearly as good since the first month of the season when they were getting it done. Not really sure how they were getting it done, but they were getting it done, and they haven't been as good. So I was debating. I was kind of leaning green Bay. I was thinking about just
doing Washington just to be your friend here. I like that, but I didn't love it. But now we can be aligned because we're we're here together.
Another point and a half.
I think green Bay could have also been like that Chicago game could have been a little bit of a trap game because they could have been looking at the forty nine ers this week.
And you know, obviously yea, I don't care like there.
You know that, you know Lafleur is not gonna let shant he does not. That is a the Lafleur Shanahan thing is you know, they're all in the same tree, blah blah blah blah like. But I do think it's possible that they could have been looking just a little bit ahead as opposed to focusing on the Bears quite as much, because what you'd seen from the Bears in weeks prior weren't a scary.
Right, and we we tape this before we really know the injury report, that's right, and the injury situation, and part of the reason I was in on the Packers are some of the injuries for the forty nine ers. But that's kind of uncomfortable to bet on before we really know it. Bosa perty is not one hundred percent.
If Bosa doesn't play, if George Kittle somehow doesn't play, then everything will be different for how I feel A Kittle is supposed to play, right, but like supposed to everyone. Just so you know, and I've said this is Kyle Shanhan's face, it's fine. He's a lying liar who lies. He doesn't need to tell us. There's no legally bound contract saying that he needs to tell us by this amount of time. He does exactly Friday, the injured report. He says what he has to say, ninety minutes before
the game. He submits his little sheet. And Christian McCaffrey is a great example of it. Like week one, we're like, oh, he's playing, he's playing all of that. It's like ha, I are, yeah, okay, But he didn't do anything that was illegal or like not within the bounds of the rules.
But again, the lying liar who lies strikes again.
Or he could, Wow, I know you hit on something. When I saw you got a reaction there in the in the studio back there when you called Kyle, we.
Will be fine fibbing fibber who fish you will that as the social No, don't clip that as a social although it's not like he again, he knows, he knows, he thinks it's funny.
He's not doing anything wrong.
Okay, so too, I would lie too.
You took Washington, Washington for that at least the third straight week you were you were going against. We did it together, couple of straight weeks. And I agree with you. It's just not one of my top three. You're also gonna go Chiefs. They're favored by eleven in Carolina. And then we're together. We're taking those road favorites, the Vices in Chicago.
My three picks.
I like the Titans as an underdog plus eight and a half. I like the Lions as a favorite on the road minus seven and a half road favorites.
What a world we're in. What a world.
Then I'm with you on Minnesota. My little extra picks for what it's worth. I do like the Packers this week. Sometimes you just got to pick the like. I just think I just think they're a better team. Their offense, to me, is the one group in this game that I really think is close to or is at okay, but no, but here's here's what I would say. No, they don't have a good pass rush. But the forty nine Ers, they're not the offense that I expected. They
need too much of Juwan Jennings. Like Juwan Jennings is their whole offense. It's not the Christian McCaffrey. Their defense, whether they have Bosa or not, not what I expected. Not special Packers defense. Not in love with them to rely on the turnover with that Packers offense, man, I want to see yeah, I want to see you stop them San Francisco, Like that's the part of the game
that I really trust. Agreed, And so I think they get to twenty five, twenty eight points, and I just think it's going to be too hard.
You think, wait, hold on, if Party is playing, if Bosa is playing, still in on the package, if Kittle's playing, You're still in on the pack. Just making sure want to understand.
But Minnesota is my third pick to be official.
Can you say it right? Please? What Minnesota?
Minnesota?
Yeah, Minnesota, And then.
I'm with you.
I kind of like the Commanders a little bit, and that's about it.
I do like the Seahawks, but I wouldn't even put them in the box. I just think I think they'll win.
I think the Seahawks are going to win too.
My only like hesitation is I have done really poorly picking against the Cardinals.
So I've been picking.
I've been on the Cardinal side all season and that's why I'll just stay away from that one.
Let's cross it one out. Uh.
This was a pleasure as always. Yeah, we're not competing, even though we're tied. Well, we are competing, but we're trying to We're trying to win for the list and I've noticed like the listeners are going up on this thing, people are completing.
I think it's because they know where we're giving them winners.
Cynthia love it and so check Cynthia out her YouTube channel numbers Game Behind that's growing each and every week to check us out on NFL Game Debut.
That is it for our week of shows at NFL Daily.
We will be back on Sunday Night, Patrick Claybond and of course Nick Shook.
I am really or to that one.
Yes, when the lion liar who lies is lying, you know football is back.