Week 11 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we are on a roll fading the Cowboys.

I am Greg Rosenthal here in.

The Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend who joins us for our Friday pick show every week, Cynthia Freeland.

Hi, how you doing on a little bit of a role here.

Hey, you know that's how we live when we join forces fading the Cowboys. Last two weeks we are two and oh each a combined four and oh if you wanted to count our records. But I don't know if you know this. I haven't told you this. I went three and oh again last week, so I am on a six and oh. Cheeter, And you're also doing great as well. You've had four out of five winning weeks, so we both are well in the winning margin for the season. It is all happening, Cynthia. What is going

Okay, I think this week my starting point is going to be fading the Dallas Code.

Okay, I wasn't sure if I was gonna go there again or not. But tell me why.

I mean to be fair, it's hard. Seven and a half is a weird number. Okay, but I don't care. I have it for more than that. I ultimately believe the fact that even though the Dallas defense has gotten some pressure, I just think with Nico Collins coming back, they're gonna treat this as a let's get Nico back. They have the best so second best in terms of quarterback to wide receiver and passer rating. So one thirty

Let's get targets here, let's get targets there.

Like this is a great eat opportunity for that and plus, you know, you can run on the Cowboys and Joe Mixon turns out he's a running quarterback, running back.

He's a great running back.

The fact that they haven't been able to get their early down run game consistent. There's a lot of lost you know, stuffs and negative runs. But that's like, but look like that's against good teams.

But you have to also realize, like lines are very good at that, Like it's it's yes, I understand that, Like it's weird saying that as a Lions fan. I almost feel like I'm lying, but like the lines.

Are, yeah, they're great. No, you're absolutely right. So I had the Cowboys baiting them as possibly my third pick, and I wasn't sure whether I would or not, and I had it seven. Probably depends where you look.

You're right.

I think it's moved up to seven and a half. Yeah, but you know what, I like being on the same team as you.

Let's do it.

So if I'm putting a big question mark and I'll get to the one I was considering late later it was on the edge. Anyways, as my third pick, I will also go Houston minus seven and a half on the road in down looks, it's all about the Cowboys offense for me. The reason why I'm a little anxious about is just the Cowboys defense last week with Michael

Yes, probably, but it's the other It doesn't matter.

No, it's the other side of the I don't want to sweat this out.

The last couple of weeks, we've been hitting like ones that are over mid third quarter.

It's the other side of the ball.

I mean, Cooper Rush averaged less than two yards per past last week every time he dropped back.

He now has a neck injury.

His quarterback winstat is really good, right, he has won a lot of games.

They did get to Neil Hunter back at practice on Thursday. We're not for sure whether Will Anderson is going to play in this game, so that's obviously a concern. But when they got Aziz alsha Here back last week, I think that really helped them against the Lions. They are one of the most consistent week to week defenses in the NFL. I think they're one of the few difference

I don't really think you're insufferable. Like I actually rooting for it because I think it's funny. Doesn't mean that I am rooting against myself. No, we can both be.

We're we're competing, but we're both winning right now, and we're giving our audience.

How who would win if we both win? All here and not like everyone the listener, you would win?

All right, give me your second pick.

We are both on the Cowboys, losing by more than seven and a half points at home to the Texans.

What is your second pick?

Indianapolis and the points.

Okay, I have the Jets winning outright, but I have Indianapolis with the points, and it's very volatile on the Jets side, and I don't like that. So I'm punishing them because I I have, I have proven to my I have stayed committed to taking the picks in my model. I don't go against my model. You know this, but I hate that pick. Like if I had to, if I had to tell you what I believe, it's cults I'm taking if I had to.

Wait, but you're taking the Jets.

Well straight up, yeah, okay, say whatever.

I don't know. I have a lot of We do a show on network.

I understand.

We don't mention it a lot. The listeners for this show would be particularly interesting. Game devietw on NFL Network each and every week.

Yeah.

Start the first air in very early in the morning on the West Coast on Friday, but it has multiple airings throughout the weekend, including on Sunday morning before game day morning. So you can you can set your DVR to our picks there. But so your pick is Jets plus four or minus four.

No, my pick is Colts. Oh, Colts plus plus oh four. Oh, you're saying I have the Jets.

That's what I thought, But.

I have the Colts cut because I hate this.

All that matters is is the Colts covering, right, It's all that matters. That's right.

I don't I'm just telling you, but I'm just explaining that part of the reason why I, specifically or pacifically how you speak.

English, wanted this one. It's because sometimes I get mad at my own model.

Right, and so you're not happy that your model has the Jets winning this win. Your model has been heavy on the Jets all season. Now my model, the.

Vegas has to Vegas has two.

Frankly, when I looked at this one, and this was the fourth game I was debating, So this one's going to be in my little box.

It's not going to be on my three official picks. But I'm with you. I agree with you.

The fourth pick that I was debating was either Colts plus four or Texans minus seven and a half. And I'm gonna put it as like my extra pick this week. But I am prepared to agree with you because I am picking the Colts straight up in this game. The vibes could not be worse. I mean, it's not that the Jets are just losing these games. When they're losing these games, they are not competitive. I think it could

That's part of it. You know what a big.

Part of it is is Sauce Gardner and that defensive backfield. It's a bunch of skinny corners and safeties who can't tackle and in the NFL today like they will your edges. I think they used Jonathan Taylor Anthony Richardson on the edge and Sasgardner and those guys are just missing tackle after tackle week after week.

So I love your ind plus four. I think you're two and zero.

Can I tell you something I spent far too much time looking at what happened with my model and where Jonathan Taylor with Anthony Richardson starting, especially because Jeff Olbrick's sitting there on his podium being like, we couldn't make any tackles last week.

Oh blah blah blah blah blah.

Well you know what, Actually, Jonathan Taylor's projection went up with Anthony Richardson. Why Because Anthony Richardson can't be doing wild things. He can't be right now, he has like the highest air yard per attempt average of any like, it's like thirteen yards per attempt. It's a wild number. So in order to keep him from turning the ball over shorter passes, but also the thread of the run. And who are they gonna defend? Are they going to

For years. We had this.

We had to say, like the worst, people will be like, your grammar's terrible. I'm like you try speaking in code.

Yeah, we had to speak in a weird code. It was essentially a pick show. It was essentially a gambling show. But it was like you couldn't advertise it that way.

And we'd say more or less.

Yeah, not more higher, here we go.

Okay, I feel so good about Packers minus five and a half. I can't believe this number has gone back to the Packers during the week. It was actually higher when I initially it was six earlier. Now it's five and a half. Sometimes it's just over in life that the numbers that your model spits out, and you're probably on the same side as me, are you? But then, but even Vegas, some they can't totally measure when it's

But I truly believe it's over over.

These last two games were two of the worst games I've ever seen from an offensive staff and offensive team. And you're playing a good Packers team. I think they win by twenty five. Like, I love it. I give me this Packers one.

I'm with you on that.

I will say, here's my like, like I did, We're going down a nerd rabbit hole. But it's okay because I have my glasses on so when I'm wearing my glasses I can be nerd.

Hear.

I did this thing where I tracked how where the volume of money was going on bets and which fans are disproportionately irrational about their team, and Chicago fans are pretty irrational, meaning they get a little change and they're like, we're winning now right, like they go they swing all the way back to like they're very like we hate you, we love you, we hate you, we love you. So I think part of that is to entice those Bears fans they'll.

Make in Vegas.

I also read all these ten k's and like, you know, these earnings, I do nerdy stuff and I have a lame free time.

I read these earnings reports.

The casinos have beginning hammered a little bit, So look out for these lines to be a little wild because they need to entice some fans.

Are the same little little business one oh one here.

You know what they're enticing me right now? Well to go Packers minus five and halfs. And it's funny you say that because every year on the over under draft that we've been doing on the podcast, which I am on a wild winning streak on the last couple of years.

Man, I'm just patting myself in the back too, But why not?

The Bears over under before the start of the season is always too high half And I've gone under every year and I did it again this year.

It was nine and a half in some places.

But I feel good that either whether you got an eight and a half or nine half, it's going to be under.

All right, let's go to your final pick.

My final pick speaking of a team that hit their win totals or will be hitting their win totals should they win this game.

Denver five and a half wins was the win total ahead of the season.

Yeah, they're at five right now. I'm feeling good about that one. I hammered that one pretty hard, so I would have been really eating Crow if I or eating Bronco.

I guess if I think you're getting by this week? Yeah, I think that they this week.

I think not only do they get the win at home against Atlanta, but I do have a win by more than two points.

I too. It's crazy, that's.

It's a wild All these notes are we like becoming the same person?

Denver is my second person. That would be great for me.

No, I would get way like the grand followers.

You know it'd be It'd be very exciting.

Let's be fair. I'd rather have your wit and quick bit. No, Anthony Jail's Nick is my favorite, So okay, you best friends with him would be great.

I'm glad.

I'm actually scared of him.

But you brought that up that Jessel Nick and Rosenthal Vanity project is back this I don't think I've mentioned that on nflaily.

Really excited about that. I'm really excited about this.

I appreciate, so I'm with you. Denver was my number two pick. It was locked and loaded minus two and a half I saw. So whether it's shoot two and a half, whatever, either way, I'm going full bowliever, you know. Uh. Now, the Broncos has been part of this show for my picks three straight weeks now. I went against them with Baltimore.

We got it. We we both were with him last week. It was in it.

Mine was in the extra picks the box, but you nailed it with the plus eight. I agreed with you on that. There's a couple of reasons. I just like the physical matchup up front. The Falcons with the worst pressure rate, the worst sack rate in the entire NFL against a Broncos offensive line with that's really underrated, number one in past block win rate. Right now PFF as them as then number two pass protection team in the league, so that's a huge mismatch. And bo Nick's numbers when

I've been trying to figure it out right now. But Mike McGlinchey, if he's able to go like that's very helpful to this. But I think great in the battle and the trenches on both sides either.

Way, I agree with you.

And yeah, Kirk Cousins is always a little dangerous because I think he's been playing at a pretty high level despite not being able to move around. And yet I think his offensive line they're a very average pass rush by I mean past protecting group, like you would think they had this reputation at the Falcons as a good pass protecting your both well, just so.

They're all drafted so high, right, they're all like first rounders.

They're okay, they're not bad, they're not good, but this is against a very good pass rush. So this is the first week of the season that we've agreed on two games, and we really agreed on three because you picked off what would have been my fourth pick. So we are both on the Texans covering seven and a half, We're both on the Broncos covering two and a half. You have the Colts plus four, which I wholeheartedly agree with. That is my pick, my extra pick in the box,

The North Scott Turner, the Turner family, the Turner family, bump.

I just feel like the Dolphins aren't a good enough team to be favored by seven against basically anyone. Maybe if it was the Bears, I would be okay with it, like because I'm so down on the Bears or the Cowboys. But I think the Raiders coming off of bye, pretty good pass rush, they're two, like I think the Dolphins defense, it'll just be low and ugly.

So you're giving me, But that's why it's.

Also missing two.

Andre Max Crosby lines up there, you go, good job a guy that's the name of Lamb going against Max Crosby just doesn't doesn't doesn't work.

But that's just a little extra pick. And to be honest, my extra picks have been just like five hundred.

Lately. We're riding high on the top three.

Sure, that's I want to get really too though, I have the doing here.

Please do what is the number you see for Cleveland, because I've seen it bouncing around.

But I have Cleveland winning.

Okay, Yeah, now they're favored by one, but before they were an underdog by one.

Right, So but I have I have Cleveland winning this game. And I love Nick Chubb. I'm a huge Nick Chubb stan and he's gonna get his over fifty rushing touchdown, which puts them in a club with some Hall of famers, so like Jim Bred like really good players.

So hey, you know, less talked about than the fired coach principle, Like it kind of fades after that first. You know, I think long term they'll be better with Dan Darren Rizzy than they were with Dennis Allen. But this is a toss up to me. But I also picked the Browns and so I agree with you on that.

Yeah.

I also, I mean, look, I think that it's much harder to defend erratic James Winson can be erratic. We know that he's he's gonna throw it deep, but he's also he could throw a pick. He could throw a deep like explosive plays makes things harder, and their defense still has been missing tackles. Their defense still has not been really stout at limiting yak, limiting yako yaka either one. It's and that's a that's gonna be hard because I just think as good as the Browns defense, Like I'm.

With you, it's yeah, I think the Browns defense is the most trustworthy group in this game. But did not make it onto my card just because nothing about these two teams is too dressed?

Worthies make it dress. Yeah, that's your little extra pick.

Thank you, uh Cynthia once again check out her YouTube channel Numbers Game.

That's where it is all happening.

Check out NFL Game Deyview, subscribe to NFL Daily on YouTube. We really want to get the subscriber numbers up in Blue Sky?

Is that what we were talking about? We both signed up for Blue.

Sky, and we both sign up for Blue Sky. I'm still not really like, is it just the same thing as Twitter. I don't really know.

I don't know, but it's.

We'll figure it out.

But it's nice.

But also your pod with.

With Anthony the Justin Lick and Rosenthal Vanity Project.

Yes, it's really good.

We are back and h we're back in the mix. That is it for this week's show. We will be back on Sunday Night of course with Nick Shook and Patrick Claybond.

Looking forward to that. And yes, when we're in the middle of November and we lave you know, football is back.