Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love twenty four year old rookie quarterbacks. I'm Greg Rosenthal and beyond excited today to be joined by my two friends, Mina Chimes and for the first time on NFL Daily, Kevin Clark. Welcome to the show. Guys.
What's going on?
Why are you laughing right off the bat? I think I might need to change the intro music. If both you and Colleen are just like laughing that, it sounds like a war march. I thought I.
Heard like another song. That's why I'm me too, Me too.
I thought somebody was playing weird music, like from an unspecified you felt like oldies, but it didn't feel like it was a specific decade.
Yeah, we're off to read line and start here. Thank you Kevin for joining us from your mother in law's house, and thank you Mina. I've been excited about this show for weeks. Here, we've done this exercise over unders for a couple of years. I'll get into it more in a minute, but I you know, I just wanted to have you, two of the brightest minds over at ESPN, to to bounce off ideas from.
I want to be clear, I was also smiling because of the visual of Kevin Clark, who has a new haircut, is wearing what appears to be a blazer in his mother in law's house, looking a lot like you know during COVID, when like public science professors would go on CNN for the first time ever.
I do, I do, I do know what that looks.
Like, pologist. I think I said that wrong.
Okay, A couple things about it. Number one is I'm here because we're doing construction to our house and it's a little more involved than we thought, and so I had to evacuate kind of quickly. But the most important thing is like evacuate, I was trying to think of like the most mother in law thing that could be within reach per a desk. It's a print out, of course, of the electoral college. I don't know why that's here, but they're not like super politically involved by any means.
It's just a map of electoral college. You just got to know what the path is.
I guess it's time. It's time to start studying those numbers and figuring out it's that week. And yes, I do appreciate the blazer. You classing this up and the new haircut I'm excited to get to the overrunners. We'll get to that in a second. I did want to just hit off the top. We had some news pop out on Wednesday afternoon that Bo Nix is the official
starting quarterback of the Broncos. We don't need to go too crazy because we've been assuming this year on NFL Daily Mina on a scale let's say, of preseason performances that are either misleading or not starting with let's say Kenny Pickett's twenty twenty three is on one end of the continuum, and Russell Wilson's rookie preseason kind of auguring like what was a great, great career? Where do you see bow Knicks's preseason?
I'm going to say somewhere in the middle. We talked about this on my show a little bit, The Meantime Show featuring Letty, and I was more optimistic than Ben Solek, who was my guest, who, by the way, called Bo Nix a young man. They're like the same age. When
you said he was twenty four, that really hitvy. Anyways, the reason I'm more optimistic about it is because I think bo Nicks in Sean Payton's offense, and I know that sounds like a big nuss, you know, like I'm hedging here, But I don't think it's hedging because we are going to see him in Sean Payton's offense. And I think what's been become very clear from the preseason.
Yes against backups, and yes, it's very different from the regular season for a litany of reasons in ways that tend to favor efficient quarterbacks who can get the ball quickly. I think Peyton's going to get the most out of him, and so I think it. I don't think like the ceiling is incredibly high with offense Kevin, but I actually think the floor has been is maybe higher than I thought going into the season.
He's the most accurate passer in history of college football, and that means something, and that means them to Sean Payton, and Sean Payton loves him. Jeff Schortz is on my show speaking of guests talking about the Broncos, and he said, the most encouraging thing about bow Knicks is the offense is tailored towards him. Sean Payton clearly had a plan of what was supposed to look like Knicks. To me, when you mentioned twenty four year olds is one of the first of what's going to be the new normal
in the draft from now on. Jami Daniel's in his bucket as well. Of these elder millennial quarterbacks who learn to play football, well, I mean they learned to play football over five years or six years in some cases they use the transfer portal, and they played a ton of football. Bow Knicks threw like twelve hundred more passes than JJ McCarthy at the college level, like he basically played like I know, the age difference such, but the
football education difference is so significant. And I talked to Savita Pritchard, who was who is Jamee Daniels quarterbacks coach, and he was saying, like, we know, we can see so much tape in different offenses, and we can see that they're getting this data in their head and they're clocking it and they're getting better like with every rep. And you don't see that necessarily with Drake Man because he was only there for three years in one school
under one head coach, JAJ McCarthy. Same situation. Bo Nicks has like had a professional career already and it's here and so the fact that the floor is this high is is not a surprise, and I think there's going to be a lot of early success and a couple of these teams are on big boards. I don't want to get too deep into it.
I know they're they're over under five and a half for the Broncos. That is that's interesting a Sean as down as I am on John Payton's long term success in Denver, five and a half for a Sean Payton team in the year two of his I completely agree.
I completely agree, But I'm just saying there's going to be this army of There were six first on quarterbacks Lusher. Three of them were direct results of the transfer portal, and that sign even County Cap Williams like we're gonna see like way more Bonixes and where those guys are gonna have success, especially with Sean Payton.
Yeah, they have a little extra year because you know the COVID year. That's finally LUs Lush through. But I want to see how highest floors I'm I don't know if I'm skeptical, but I want to see. I'm very excited about that Week one Seahawks Broncos game. We talked about, like what what games are you putting on? You if you had the four game multiview. That's a late afternoon game. But like, I'm very into that just because everything is weird and new in Seahawks Broncos Week one. All right,
we'll see if either of those teams comes up. And yes, Mina Chimes from NFL Live, the Mina Chimes Show featuring Lenny one of the best out there, and Kevin Clark from This is Football and all the ESPN programs lately around the Horn and they're sneaking you on NFL Live. It's great. I wanted to have you guys on. This is a show near and dear to my heart because I've done really well at it the last two years and we just need to see if I can keep that going.
Who is your biggest hit the last two years? Like, who is the one who just nailed?
Well, I'm seven to zero through the two years we did, I know that's what I mean. I was surprised and went back and checked Mina. You went two and one two years ago, so you acquitted yourself. Well, we did three two years ago, did four last year. It's a little crazy. Under Giants and I can't even remember under Giants and Bears I think over Chiefs when they going into twenty twenty two, when they won the super Bowl and won you know, million games. That was easy, a
lot of been safe Eagles over. I think in twenty three it doesn't matter. I don't need to go over that. But I may have thought way too much about this and really struggled to decide who are my last teams? Because I like it so much, so why don't we start out? It's going to be draft style. Basically, we can each pick the over unders of any team and over or an under, but when someone else takes that, you can't take that. So we'll just go we won't
do a snake draft style. We'll start with Kevin because I think like he's a newcomer. Oh my gosh, he's playing hurt with that.
Sort and a and a map electoral college.
Let's start with Kevin. Then we'll go to Mina.
I have a question, can we conceive the way if someone picks X team over, can we draft X team under?
Yes?
Yes, you can be fun. That is a nice uh. I would love a challenge match.
I'm probably not gonna do that. I don't think that's gonna happen, but I I just want to make sure that that that little that would be fun jiu jitsu is on the menu. All right. So I'm looking on my big board here. It's deep, it's a deep board. It's this is a good draft, but I don't know if it's necessarily top heavy.
No.
What what's funny is like this is why Vegas makes all the money. Every time I'm like, oh, I really love this team, I'm gonna look and oh, well, Vegas peg this fairly like this is this is what we're gonna do.
Ye.
So there's one team I'm real high on on that I feel like they're their their total is low. It's a team meaning you know, well, it's the Los Angeles Rams and it's eight and a half I think. And I've gone over like Stephen Ruiz, like the Aaron Donald thing is going to be so significant, blah blah blah. The defense is going to get it's gonna be fine, and the offense is developing into a juggernaut. I really
do believe this. I was going through the uh the NFL has a new product, NFL Plus providing it's called and I was going through it this morning. I got access to it and I was looking like all the open numbers, who gets the who has the most separation under play action, Well, it's Cooper Cup Like Sean McVeigh gets everybody open all the time, Like he's number one in all of those things. And there's a reason for that. Stafford, I'm not worried about his health. I think this is
an NFC contender. And I think of the that group of that A, that tier A, they're the only one with the total that low.
Yeah, that they schedule I think for the NFC West artificially, not even artificially, but it just depressed all their numbers. And you kind of find that going into the year just which division has tough out of schedule out of division schedules and you're like, oh, why is that team slow? Why are all these teams solow? And so I think
that's part of it. They weren't on my long list, and maybe they should be, because you're right, if Stafford's healthy, I feel pretty good about that number for some reason, even though he's already backup practice, just that team's gonna would collapse. I think without Stafford, even with Jimmy g and that worries it's true of everybody that's fair, but I'm like more worried about Stafford.
Anybody we're picking to go over would collapse if they true of everybody.
But I think the Rams are more dependent on their offense being elite than some other teams because the defense is so young upfront and so young. But best player of all time.
I do think there's a floor with the young guys because I think the Verse and Fisk thing, the thing that we've talked about or not reported, that they knew they couldn't replace Aaron Donald, so they did it. I swear to get like, I.
Don't just like it.
I'm just saying I think that the safding is what scares me too. The injuries is really the only thing that scares me with the Rams.
Yes, and like so literally they went out and they said, we can't replace Aaron Donald, but we can replace them in aggregate, And so they drafted two Florida State guys. They thought that the chemistry immediately would be would would help them acclimate very quickly. Then they go out in the draft Cam Kitchens from Miami, who I believe is going to start right, Like, wasn't that the that was the rumor?
Yeah, I don't know if.
He didn't dress the last preseason game, which which some of the beats took as a signal that he was.
He's definitely gonna play. I'll say that he's definitely gonna play. And I really like the additions. I mean, you mentioned camp kitchens. I love the Camp Curl signing at safety, a lot of cams back there. I don't just like to pick at all. I just that's my only concern with the Rams is not just injuries to staffer, but potentially you're hearing some injuries on the offensive line. Haven't
seen cops obviously coming up injury. It's an offense that, when everyone's healthy, I think could be the literally best offense in the entire NFL. So I am very high on this team too, But that is the concern.
How was Sean McVay in the booth in like your life? What was that experience like for you?
It was brief, It was brief. Yeah. He also his headset wasn't working, so I had to give him my headset. So actually here, oh yeah, you know, I'm a team player.
You go with the number two overall pick. Here we go.
Okay, this is boring because we talked about it, but I think Broncos five and a half is probably the best.
First one off the board.
Well, it's a team that had seven Pythagorean wins last year and I think upgraded at quarterback. Frankly, I think this version of whatever you think about bon Nicks and his ceiling and that is a totally fair to debate. I'm telling I think the floor that he gives you and that this offense is going to give you with a minute is better than what we saw last year was defense that was a train wreck to begin the season,
pulled things together, still finished like thirtieth and DVA. Because of how bad they were at the beginning of the season. Hard to think they're going to be worse. Hopefully you get a full, healthy season out of Baron Browning. I just think I just don't see Peyton losing or winning fewer than six games two years in a row.
I just don't see it and get it. Like our producer Eric threw up the over unders for the entire division if you're watching on YouTube, and yet it's one of the worst divisions in the league. It's weird to me that they're a game below the Raiders and three below the Chargers. Like that is a huge gap. The case against it would be, you know, bo Nick's not very talented skill position group on paper among the league's worst.
I mean, you can make a case for Javonte Williams and some of the secondary receivers stepping up, but it's not that talented. And then defense wears the strength you know, where like, what are you excited about? They have a number of pass rushers, but no one that gets you really juiced up, and the secondary after certain I was trying to think of a potential marsh On Lattimore landing spot just because just on my radar that he left the first practice of training camp with like an injury
and no one said anything about it ever since. And this was an issue between the team before. And maybe he is actually hurt and he has a hip injury which is very concerning for them, or maybe there's just been bad vibes there and more going on. And I do wonder if if the Broncos could certainly use a marsh On Latimore, but there's a million teams that could. All right, I'm going to go third pick. I'm going to go back to what I shouldn't be doing this.
Eric put up my picks from a year ago to me, and over on the Bills was one of them, and you know they barely snuck that out by streaking at the end of USKED. What was my best pick going under on the Panthers last year? That was pretty strong. I'm going over on the Bills again, nine and a half. This sometimes I think you shouldn't overthink these. Just look at their win total in the last five years ten thirteen, eleven, thirteen, and then eleven last year, so that was starting in
the Josh Allen first playoff season. Their point differential is always over one twenty five. They've been top six in offensive points four straight years, top four in defense fourth straight years. Like they are objectively, by any measure, one of the best teams consistently in the NFL. So my
main thing is kind of why not. I know the schedule is pretty tough in that division, in and out of division, but if we're doing this all just because Stefan Diggs isn't there, Like, yeah, you can come up with some ways they've gotten worse over the last year, but they also have the best offensive line maybe of the Sean mcdermoin era. They might have the best running game, They've developed their cornerbacks pretty well. Christian Benford is a
real player they like, we'll see. But every preseason they say Kyriel Elam looks terrible and is not going to ever win the job, and they're right, and then this preseason they're saying, look pretty good, that he looks good. Greg Russo's pop it up. So I get the strength. The schedule is why their number is so low. But to me, Sean mcdermot's one of the coaches that gives you a schematic advantage Kevin in some sort of way, and that's very consistent defense, and so I'm not overthinking
I'm going over bills again. This is probably the last time or the first time they've been this low in the McDermott era.
I can really agree with you, and I believe McDermott has exceeded his win total in every single season. I believe that I saw that stout the other day, which would track Frankly. I talked to Joe Brady, the new OC, or they're vaguely new OC. This is first training campus OC in Pittsford a couple of weeks ago, and I said, what are you doing? Like, what's keeping you up at night, and he's like, we want to be able to win every single way, Like we want to be able to
have like the James cookway against Dallas. We want to be able to have Josh. And they're not trying to change Josh, but they're just trying to say, like, all right, we need to be so flexible that we can win any sort of game. And I really do think that's that's possible. And I also think it's just because of this singular talent of Josh Allen. Like Josh Allen, we did this exercise on my show last week, like they're once.
I think there are six quarterbacks who are actually worth the money, who deliver a value more than what they take away with the forty million dollars a year that
you're paying them. I think he's about six. I think this, and I don't like you can go through it and you can argue about some of those guys, but I think there's six where the team is like we would actually pay like we probably shouldn't say this publicly, Mina, but we've talked about our nannies before, and we've said that if our nannies, if our nannies stuck this is good.
This is relatable. People really like hearing this stuff.
And we're like our childcare professionals were like, we want more money, we would be like, I there's nothing I can do. You are so good at your job. I'm going to give you more money. I did. The thought of not being of not having you in the house is such a nightmare that I can't conceive of it.
Here's well, there are other nannies, and what if that nanny is an NFL Daily listener. I'm almost insulted that you just assume I haven't made that sort of breakthrough.
I'm just saying that that's that's a franchise quarterback. We will pay any amount of money. Josh Allen is one of the five or six guys where if anytime they want to renegotiate, they're gonna be like, yeah, that sounds good, brother, let's.
The give it. My nanny coming home today after her drive and saying she wants to raise and also, by the way, are you sure about that?
Okay? Yeah?
Instructure.
I'm very high on the bills. I had them in my both my top ten offenses and defenses. The Matt Mulano injury dimmed my optimism a little bit. I am worried about the linebacker position with this team, just because the spine with those linebackers and safeties is so young. However, I think Josh Allen Paper's over so much nine and a half for me that I thought it was ten and nine and a half. I would take you over too, So I'm with you.
Yeah, one one under the Jets there and yeah, that's where I'm counting on on McDermott's schematic advantage with just like he can get those linebackers to play at a good enough level. Maybe it might be Dorian Williams from two lane and I and the whole thing about the skill position guys, they have enough plus skill position players to me, Jakir Knox, Kincaid Cook, like all those guys are plus players. Maybe Kean Coleman and Curtis Samuel get
to be that way. Ray Davis little funky. All right, let's go with your second pick, Kevin.
I swear to god, a fax machine just went off in this room.
That's exciting. You've traveled back in time.
Is it a printed out poll? Is it unskewed?
I don't even know. It's just nothing seems to even be in there, just wanted to make noise to let us know that it was here. So there's a fact machine in here. We're going to place some other stuff as well. This is this is from Okay. So this was actually lower on my big board. And then I'm looking at my big board and I'm like, man, this is calling out to me, and I'm gonna regret not calling this ahead of time. By Sharp Analytics strength of schedule,
they have a harder than normal schedule. They have one of the grimmest, most outwardly hostile quarterback situations in the league. They have a bunch of unhappy people and a vaguely new coach. The Las Vegas Raiders are gonna lose a lot more games than the six and the six and a half that is currently given to them by and the defense is going to be fine. The events, i guess, gonna be more aggressive, and obviously they've got a floor of talent there. Christian Wilkins is very good. Mass Crosby
is very good. This is gonna be a very bad team, guys, this is gonna be a very bad team. The Gardner Minshaw was named starting quarterback, and all the everybody around the team was like, yeah, it wasn't very good because of what happened and Antonia here, the entire camp was like, we're waiting for somebody to grab that job, and just nobody did it, and it was named two weeks before the season and started by default.
When that happens, I have to go under to check that fact because it might be from an old NFL fan telling you Minshew as the it factor, which is something I've been there in recent days. I stayed away from this one because I'm scared of the defense, but I agree with everything you said. I'm like this. You called it a hostile quarterback couetition. It is hostile to
my eyes. I would describe it as depressing. And it's depressing because I actually really like, I like kind of everything else going on with this team, Greg, and that's what bumps me out.
I did the thing where I did your af West preview and I finished it and I was like, oh, I was that guy that just was way too optimistic about everyone just because it was fun to be. It was August. I went to Raiders camp and I like got convinced that their defense is going to be truly special. Then again, they were you know, going against Adan O'Connell
and Gardner Minshew in practice. And you're right, Antonio Pierce said after the game, like it would have been nice if someone played well in this game and then the next day he names.
He didn't win because of last night, is how we put.
It, right. But they do have potentially, they have continuity on the offensive line. They have potentially an average maybe even above average depending on how you squint at it, offensive line, and pretty decent skill players so and a good defense. So that maybe six and a half. That's that feels about right in the AFC West to be there, right, That could be things could go off the tracks and they could trade you know him at some point, but
it would be surprising. Doesn't feel like he really wants to be there.
All right, you go your second, Okay, I'm staying in the division. Similar lines, Greg, you will not be surprised by this one. Chargers are not winning more than eight and a half games.
I knew you were taking Chargers under it.
Sorry, that is not a good football team. It is a great quarterback, obviously. Jim Harbla is a good coach. I'm excited about the jesse Menter high. I don't care. I have looked at that depth chart, stared at it, tried to figure out how you get to nine wins. I don't see it. The skill player group is a real problem. And you know I do the preseason, they just play the Chargers, so you know, usually it's backups.
You got to like hedge their starters were on there, guys, And I'm telling you, outside of Herbert, obviously it's not It's not a good situation.
They need the defense to be good to have a chance to be excellent. Mean and I have a friendly disagreement. If the charge is finished in the top twenty in DVOA, I win that on defense. I am a little worried that Joey Bosa's missing all of training camp and he might play Week one, and absolutely no one has talked about that he's got a risk injury. Derwin James has
been out out lately. There's a lot of projection. I usually overrate the Chargers that this is one of those where the off season so long that now when I looked at it was very hard when I'm making this long.
List, because oh my god, you're already backing off of it.
I feel it, I know, like so long but like you make the case and then you make the case again. By this point of the thing, I can see both sid I'm not backing off the defense. I feel good about that. They could be a top twenty DVO defense. But I am with you. Under eight and a half feels pretty good. The only thing that makes me feel a little better other than it's just Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, and Justin Herbert is back on the field.
Yeah. Is uh.
Everyone suddenly thinks it feels like the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But that number is crazy high. I mean, it's a little weird that everyone that it's eight and a.
Half like it's nine wins.
The one thing I have two things on that number. One, I think the Chargers are gonna better than you think. They have the second easiest schedule in the NFL according to the debate.
That must be part of it.
That's part expectation things. That's that's part of it. The second part is that Jim Harbaugh took a really mediocre roster to the NFC title game the last time we took over the NFL team, And we look back now and we go, oh, those guys are studs if you look at the roster now, he made them studs. Nobody was saying that he was a sleeping giant at all. In San Francisco. I know I was there. I watched that team, and they got a lot better year over year.
There's gonna be a credibility there. Normally that's fake, but like a lot of times, like coaches don't even know how to practice, like Jim Harbaugh knows how to hit and toughness and then like evaluate, like there's just gonna be a lot there. You mentioned the Joy Bosa thing, how nobody talks about it. I've been thinking about this recently.
There's so many situations that are just hidden in plain sight, and I don't know what the difference is between like Brent Williams holdout, which no one is talking about, and the Brandon Nyuk thing where we're just getting like every thirty seconds there's a different meeting that we're hearing about, and it's like, I just don't know how it got so lopsided that there's just some situations we cannot shut the hell up about. Another situations like Joey Bosa, nobody talks about fantasy.
I don't know that, that's my guess.
And there's one where the principals, being the front office of the San Francisco forty nine ers, think they can ye skew the situation by talking to the media, and the other one they're like, oh, yeah, we know Trent Williams just wants to skip all of training camp, and we're going to give him a raise and he'll be there next week. I'm putting the over under on Trent Williams. I don't know when their preseason game is, but thirty six hours after their last preseason.
Game is when I that was the old Walter Jones move. Walter Jones show up on September one and be like time to make the All proteins.
He's thirty six years old. They don't need to see more out of Trent Williams. It's doing what what am I doing?
No, what's Trent Williams doing? How's he spending his time?
He would help you would staying in shape. I mean, he is like the most fearsome athlete maybe in the entire NFL. But yeah, it's a good question. All right, I'm gonna go.
I'm looking up to see if he has an Instagram.
I'll report back, all right, I'm gonna go with my second pick, and then we'll take a little bit of a break. This is where I'm already starting to wonder what do I want to do? I want too many things. I'm going back to the well again. I didn't realize I was doing this. I've actually gone under on Bears two straight years. I think it was six and a half two years ago, it was seven and a half last year, and when I saw nine and a half, if it was, they're nine and a half at DraftKings.
That's the link I sent you, so just so that we were going off the same one. I do think you get a little like extra odds or whatever. I work for the NFL and none of these are real things, but it is the team. I think I'm furthest from consensus, one of them under nine and a half. I feel great about. There's a lot of reasons. Number one, the second half defensive improvement last year, how reliant it was
on turnovers. Yes, like on paper, it's a great back seven, but I still count the year and half that Matt Eberflus coached before that as something that matters. So I think they need to have a great defense, and I'm just not sure they were average last year overall. If I'm looking for teams that are gonna underachieve, I want to see, like who has a bad combined line play, offensive line, defensive line. Like to me, they're below average
on balance offensive line and defensive line. Our guy Aaron shats over at FDN, I always feel a little better if he's on the same page. He protects him for six and a half wins. And then I think that's partly because of the schedule so improved. AFC South out of division, NFC West out of division. They do get soft, you know, teams with the last play schedule they get Carolina, Washington,
New England, so that's big. And then the last thing, and this is just an intangible what have you guys thought about Matt Eberflus on Hard Knocks, like in his one on one meetings with Caleb Williams. We'll start with Kevin on this one. But that is contributing to my decision.
I said a clip to Mina, and I don't want to I'm not going to put words in her mouth.
You can quote it.
So there was a clip earlier today. I'll just read the text. There's a quickly one on another today of Caleb arms folded, not taking notes in the one on one head coach meeting. Now, these head coach meetings, especially with defensive head coaches, are sort of embedded in football lore, Like Belichick and Brady famously had them every Monday, and I don't think like Charlie Weiss and then joshuf Daniel and then Bill O'Brian were even invited. It was just
those two guys. And that's part of why Brady was able to understand coverages so well, that he had the best defensive mind of history, being like, here's what you need to look for. So these are valuable. There's a clip where Caleb Williams is in this meeting and I don't know what they're doing, but he's got his arms crossed, he's not taking notes. A couple of people made reference to this. I, as a body language doctor, kind of agreed with some of the folks who pointed that out.
But send this to Mina and her response is, god, Ibraflus looks incredible.
Though it's true, though she's not wrong, He's looked great. That's worth that's worth like half a win. That's worth half a win.
Kevin, did you spot a lie in my response? That's all I want to know.
I didn't spot a lie. You didn't address the arms folded allegations. Though.
I'm just getting like a little bit of a Shane Joe Shane vibe where it's like I want more out of these meetings and she's just like, hey, what do you think and they're just I don't know. There's there's something there. And he is in the third year of his contract Mina where look, if they go nine and eight, I win this one. And so that's the thing, Like I think eight and nine with a tougher schedule or nine and eight is a totally normal, good outcome for this team, and that that's partly why.
I think that's totally fair. I will say about Ebraflus to give some more substantive country. Yeah, something that's kind of getting lost We did the NFC North this week on my pod and something it comes out tomorrow that gets a little bit lost in when we talk about him is him taking over the defense in the second half of the year after all the weirdness there and how amazing they played, and there are numbers that are a little. This is probably why there's like there there was.
There was a lot of turnovers, right, which can tend to be a predictor for regression. But I think that back seven is really good. I think it's really talented young, the secondary, a really great linebacker.
Due.
I think pass rush is a question mark, but it's an aggressive team. I think they're one They're going to trade for a pass rusher at some point, so I'm I'm I think the I actually agree with you, Greg, I think that's a little bit high of a line. But I am optimistic about this team generally, and I think they're going to be fighting for a playoff spot.
I'd like to report I think the Bears are gonna be fine. Trent Williams has not posted on Instagram since Super Bowl, and his last tweeting is a retweet from two years ago in which chadou Jasinco ranks him as one of the five most fashionable guys, Trent Williams behind Steve Harvey.
How do I get like that?
Yeah? I love love of life without any social media. I'm jealous. I'm already regretting this Bears pick. It's not fun. I totally believe in Caleb, I could have picked more fun ones schedule.
Yes, according to sharp analytics. Wait, they have a quarterback.
I don't get that though. Yeah, it all depends on different systems, different systems. NFC West, NFC North. They do have those three games the like kind of the layups I mentioned. They had Carolina Washington, New England on their schedule, which that'll help. All right, We're gonna take a break and then we will uh pick our last two teams
each right after we're back on NFL Daily. I've got a big board, like Kevin, with about thirteen more picks, and Bill not totally decided which ones I'm gonna take. But I don't have to worry about that right now because Kevin Clark from This is Football has come up with two electric takes so far, and we're gonna hear what his next one is.
I wish I could trade back because I had so many teams I want to slander and I can't.
That's the thing with this staff. Every single pick is literally fifty to fifty just about.
So yeah, all right, there's there's there's a couple of can of worms I don't really want to open right now. I'm gonna kind of do what you do, which you just go back to the well on a really bad team. It's the New York Giants under staff. I only saw cliffs from hard jocks, was not impressed with their operation there. Okay, I do think like Molik.
Neighbors next past analysis, Yeah, I do.
Think Malik Neighbors Joe Shange, pretty good looking guy. Molakue Neighbors is gonna be really good. But I don't think Daniel Jones is very good. I still think that they have talent holes in a lot of different places, and I just don't think. I think that they're a very boom and bus team. They have some high level blue chip guys, but boy, I just I don't see a lot going on here with fallas. I don't see a lot.
Six and a half feels fair to be mean, not Both the Giants and Commanders are six and a half, Cowboys are at nine and a half, Eagles at ten and a half. U there are cases for the Giants. I think the defense could absolutely improve. I think the offensive line could be the best offensive line Dania Jones has played behind. Not good, but like it's it's always been bottom three or four in the NFL. I think it actually will be better this year, So I think
six and a half feel is fair. I feel like they're six.
To let me counterpoint that I think Daniel Jones very bad. I think I've called him the Holy Trinity, which is expensive, injury prone, and bad, the Big Three as I called him bad. And Chris Canty was on my show yesterday Former Giant played with a lot of great quarterbacks and I said, we're talking about the like Daniel Jones, like getting a check down and recepted, and like, you know what's that like? And he was like, he's a well he played with Romo and Eli and Flacco and guys
who won a lot of things. And he was like, but there was one year Romo is hurt and we'll play with Brad Johnson. I know he played with Brooks Ball and jerkcause Brad Johnson was so bad. And he was like, you see quarterback play and you just kind of check out from it because it's so bad. And I think sometimes I'm not saying it's gonna happen week
one with Daniel Jones. But he was like he was like, literally, there becomes a point where the quarterback play gets so bad it is Chris Canty talking where you just say, I'm I'm just gonna get out of here happy and healthy. I'm good, I'm all set, like let's just live to fight another day. And I'm a little bit worried that
Daniel Jones things. And I thought there was a really great QB School breakdown of of Daniel Jones interceptions the other day that I watched, and some of it is just the vanilla scheme and he didn't have anywhere to throw. Some of it was guys running the wrong route, but he just seemed to not control the football. And I think that that's just gonna it's not gonna get any better, that that particular skill is not going to get any better.
He's not athletic enough to overcome that in any meaningful way. He's able to do it for a game, but not for seventeen Brian Dabole seems a little pre fired to me, a little pre fired, slightly prefired.
How long was this QB School breakdown of the Daniel Jones It was like forty minutes.
It was like forty minutes. I was locked down.
I don't know nearly as much as J. T. O'Sullivan does. And I can't look at a play and tell you exactly, you know, the right reads but in the way that he can. But I want watch that first interception and I could break it down for you just by going do do do do do do do? What? Like That's what it looked like to me. Yeah, I like, I don't think Daniel Jones plays all seventeen games for them,
not because of injuries. I think that at some point through luck baby uh which by the way, try to drop the love that I wish she has did that more. I love it.
I love it too, I will you know as a I'm not going to say I'm a Drew Daniel Jones defender, but I did watch the entire first half, and he threw more high level throws in that game then I've seen Daniel Jones throw in any game in a while, so I at least was like, Okay, I saw some of those.
Those are broken down. This is what I saw.
I saw having friends in this industry over the course of many years, because you have always been a Daniel Jones defender. You're so fullish right now. You have always I've always yours.
I've always said he's about like if he was protected he would just be close to league average. That's all I've said. So I thought he was vastly overrated after twenty twenty two. But it's always been such a bad situation. He was like, he can deliver it if you protected it. But that's a lot of crapping on Daniel Jones. That's too bad, Mina. What what give me your next one? Mina.
By the way, I don't disagree with what you just said about him. I just don't think that situation is that it's It's not like he's dropping in it. I don't think the offensive line is going to be that much better. All Right, I've had two picks already, so I'll spend my third on the Homer pick. I'm going over Seahawks seven and a half. Yeah, I feel like
that's a pretty obvious one. Honestly, this is an offense said I think finished either twelve or thirteenth in DBOI at the top of my head, I think that we're going to see some improvement this year, hopefully with better offensive line play. That's the only thing I'm concerned about. The right tackle situation is dicey, But everything else I think will be good, and I'm really excited to see what Ryan Grubb plays the table brings the table. Pardon me, I'm still high on Gino the flip side. That is
why I'm making this bet. This youx dophense was defense part me was got awful last year, and I think that they played below their talent level. And I think the addition of Mike McDonald on that side of the ball, even if he can get them just to average, which I think is totally plausible with the talent that they have on that roster, that gets you over seven and a half wins pretty easily.
I completely agree. First of all, Grub was really good last year at spreading the ball around in Washington. He's got those sort of targets in Seattle, Gino, I think we're all junior defenders here. He's gonna be able to
spread the ball around. Mike McDonald is really freaking smart, really freaking smart, and I think we're gonna see, like I think Pete Carroll probably got a bit of a raw deal, but I think we're gonna sometimes you just need a little bit of a shot in the arm, and Mike McDonald's about that.
Yeah, I this number surprised me as much as any. If I was more strategic, I would have taken this before Mina could have, because I definitely love it and it would have been one of mine. I it's weird that the you know, they've won nine games last two years. I know the schedule is a big part of it. They all have tough schedules in the NFC West, in and out of division, and I know that's a big
part of it. But grub McDonald twenty twenty four, like that, to me is the campaign I'm behind, I think, And they're kind of if you picked I know I was saying, like offensive line, defensive line, that that maybe would be the question of, like are they better than average either definitely not on offensive line, but they're elite wide receiver cornerback combination, like and those are positions that are highly paid,
highly important. Like that is as good as a wide receiver plus cornerback group as there may be is in the league. I'm gonna I'm gonna go next because it's connected, and I decided, you know this is you know, it's for information, but it's an also an entertainment show, and why not go big and get a little spicy or have some fun and go under forty nine ers eleven and a half. I thought to combine with it because I've just been this is not a talent argument, because yeah,
that argument doesn't quite work, So that's dangerous. It's a schedule and human nature argument. Great division. We mentioned the schedule. They play the AFC East out of division, pretty tough, NFC North out of division. They're extra games. The three extra games are at Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and Chiefs. So if you were trying to come up with what's just about the toughest schedule possible, that's close to that. Okay,
so that's number one. Then they're in this situation where they have all the trappings of a team that's won repeatedly without the actual fun of having done it, like the weight of it all. Like I could absolutely see them winning ten or eleven games and this being the year they win the super Bowl. Anyways, But I still win this over under because it's a tough regular season and maybe they don't win this division and maybe they
have to get in as a wild card. That There's there's other reasons to it, but those are the main ones.
The biggest pitfall to me for the over is them thinking October doesn't matter like January matters. So if they need to experiment for two weeks, like they're they're gonna, hey, we're gonna figure out, or hey, we're going to hold a guy out for a couple of weeks, because all that matters is January. If Brock parties banged up, do we sit them in December? Like that's the biggest obstacle to me. But they've got the talent, they got the coach,
and we know what's gonna happen. To me, it's it's do they care about the regular season or do they only care about January.
That's, by the way, what's kept me away from the Chiefs. Same thinking. But another thing, I think they don't care.
They just like, yeah, I know, I know.
That's why I'm like, I'm just like, well that was which is once.
On my show.
He was like, they'll just spend a year being like, hey, let's just develop this one like part of our game, and we'll lose two games and we'll see you in this January when the Super Bowl.
We're gonna do all shovel passes for one game. Just to see another point, I think.
We're told play in the NFL Tony took a Mister Beasts video. We took Darius Tony and put him in the NFL.
Uh. The Niners were the fourth healthiest team in football last year, and that to me seems unlikely.
It's already.
I mean, you can Drake green Law, there's McCaffrey. I know they're saying he's fine, but he's been out. It's just you know a little bit of history.
There, Debo history, Bosa history. Oh yeah, the the line of dinner. If I wanted to get a little more just tangible, Like they're really counting on this, Malik Collins, Leonard Floyd. It's just not quite what it was, and they don't Now I'm saying all that, thinking like, yeah, there's still the odds on favorite to win division. Yeah they're still amazing, but just eleven and a half. It's it's the human nature thing. It's the regular season thing. All right, we got one round to go. We're gonna
take one last break and then we'll be back. All right, we've reached there our last round here, Kevin, this is exciting. We have not flown through this. So you will not have to prepare five picks. This will be your final selection Kevin.
There's three teams. I'm staring at one over two unders.
You can just say him, because what does it matter.
Let's hear no, don't no, no, no, no, we know we can do we can do yeah yeah yeah.
Watch at the end. I'm gonna it's crazy. This is such a Homer pick because they have it just to please you, Greg, because they have one of the hardest schedules in football. The New England Patriots are going to win more than four and a half games.
They're on mind to my list too. May stupid.
So, first of all, like Drake may look bad in practice for two reasons. First of all, it's a different sport going from college to pro because the hash marks are different and teams don't disguise anything at the college level. And you've never seen the complicated blitz in your life. Okay, So he looks bad because he's going against the Patriots defense, which learned ball from Bill Belichick and who currently works
under Draw Mayo, who also learned from Bill Belichick. There are a talented defense that can make any of the young quarterbacks life hell, especially a guy who have played essentially two seasons at UNC in the ACC. And the fact that he looked rough for the first couple of weeks should be expected, and the fact that everybody was so doom and gloom was surprising to me. Then you have the floor of the offense top ten yards allowed. There's still a lot of talent there. They're still a Belichick.
It's just Brian who's who's there. Draw Mayo is a defensive coach. They're gonna be fine, and that's all you need for over four and a half wins.
Yeah, the schedule, it's crazy. I mean, I know it'll end up getting easier, but when you look at their first like seven or eight games, it's just there. It's wild to see a team that's projected to have five fewer wins than anyone else in the division. And I heard you on the defense, but they did fatten up last year, like on the on the easy QBS a
little bit. And it is a little worrisome that their two most talented players in the front seven are either not there or in Christian Barmore's case, out indefinitely with this blood cott issue. So that they are they are, I know a little bit, but I'm with you.
They were.
I wrote them down. I just wasn't going to pick them because I'm it just feels like bad jujus.
Too many good players on this defense. Still, the bar more injury loss really hurts me. That there makes me nervous about them being top eight or whatever I had them projected. But I think ke On White's gonna have a monster season ouce contract year. I still feel good about you, Anthony Jennings, just like a lot of players are good too. I mean, the linebackers are good, corners are good. You got Gonzales bag. Billy Yates, who's very plugged into the Patriots, is a huge fan of DeMarcus Covington,
who they promoted to be the defensive coordinator. So I just think this defense is too good to lose four games. I just don't see.
Yeah, and the defensive talent is actually better then it's been at. One of the Eagles reporters, Bo Wolf put it this way when he was watching This is more comment on the Eagles, but he was like, if you were ranking the wide receivers at their joint practices, it's like, obviously j Brown and Vonta Smith one and two, but then the next seven people were Patriots. They actually do
have like six number three receivers. None of them are very good in terms of like elite players, but I think it's better with Ramandre then it's been.
It's funny that the Packers have six number twos and the Patriots have six number threes.
It's not really how you won a team build, but I like that thank you, thank you for kissing up. That was on my longer list as well. All right, Mina, your last pick.
All right, I'm staring at the sun this one. I'm touching the third rail. The monkey's pause about to curl. I'm taking Steelers under eight and a half. I know my talent doesn't lose.
Makes so much sense, man, This team, so the.
Last year they wont ten games. They had seven point nine, but that Green thims which wins, which is twenty first. They had a they ring twenty first. Also in points margin. They were very healthy last year. I know TJ a WoT missed some games, but they were seventh in adjusted
games lost. I don't I'm not overweighting the preseason here, but I feel like a bet on this team is that the defense continues to play at an elite level, which they've got like a lot of aging players, and that the offense is an improvement on last year, and boy, I don't know about that offense.
Guys.
It's what do you call the Raiders quarterback competition? Hostile? This one is, yeah, the hostile like hostile, hostile four, hostile five.
So towards the sport hostile, saw It saw franchise. I had that on my longer list. I completely agree. My only concern I actually said this thought about this recently, Like, you know, the reason jet liners don't crash usually don't crash is because there's five hundred things that have to go wrong, they say, and if one thing goes right, the airplane stays in the air. Like that's kind of how the Steelers are built, Like the plane is always in the air because if they always have a good line,
they always have a good front seven. There's not a lot of distractions the defense. The coaching is always sound. Mike tom Loan's really good at motivating his guys and just telling and telling them directly what they need to hear. And I kind of think I think a lot about the line from Seth Wickersham's book where Jimmy Johnson told Belichick that I think I think the phrase was twenty
four teams. We'll just get out of your way. The Steelers are always in the eight, always, and that's why I just think they win more games than they lose every single year, including vision.
The only thing you know Mike tom was not good at, though, is hiring offensive coordinators. It used to be and I don't know, maybe Arthur Smith works and I have some optimism that it's an upgrade from Matt Canada, but he hasn't really been able to figure out how to construct an offense. And it's been it's been a minute, all right, I'm gonna man. I think I'm just gonna go for the one that's more fun because I have two unders that I feel pretty strongly about. I'll just say I'm Browns and Saints.
And yeah, I one Browns is one of mine.
Maybe let's talk Browns after this. We'll just add it, but I'm not gonna do that. I want to finish feeling positive in one that I do fully believe in, too, which is the kind of the the most basic one on the board. Maybe Texan's over nine and a half to me, just just just like they're so freaking talented. Anyone,
it's just crazy. Anyone that's gone through their training camp is always like when they leave their training camp, they're just like, oh my god, their players are just so freaking good Mina.
The flip side of the Daniel Jones meltdown was holy, Texas defense is gonna be sick this year. Derek extanely looks like he's ready to have like a top three cornerback type season. Danille Hunter absolute monster opposite Willianers. I'm so geeked on that defense right now. And oh, by the way, they have the rookie quarterback who broke records and also looks un I mean, I feel like you can't be high enough on the twenty twenty fourth Houston Texas right now.
So he had the best Depasser rating in history, and where he struggled, oddly enough, was short and intermediate. So you go out and you get the and believe, the third best intermediate receiver in football last year and Stefan Diggs. Pair of that with the normal growth, pair of that with the year or two with the offensive coordinator, They're gonna be awesome this year. Like truly awesome.
They remind me so much of the Lions a year ago, where they were kind of that team and then everyone by the end doesn't want to seem too basic by the time the season starts, and like there was I don't know if there was Lions pushback by the start of that year, and it's like, no, they actually did show who they were at the end of the previous season. They really are that talented. The coaching is great, the
division's interesting. We showed the over unders and like coult eight and a half, I'm not opposed to that either. And the Jaguars to me are just a tough team to talk about to figure out. I'm actually gonna be talking with John Shipley of Jaguars on SI dot Com on our next show because the Jaguars are a team that fascinates me. But man, CJ. Stroud, you're always betting on the quarterback. Drew Dinsik of NBC, who I think
is really good with this stuff. He has this podcast, Bet the Edge, and he sees like Ravens nineteen twenty nineteen, and this Texans team kind of like second year quarterback that might compete for the MVP and that they have like a thirteen fourteen win upside, and I don't think that's crazy. So with these overs or unders. I want ones that like I think they have a chance to beat by three or four. I feel like the Texans do have a chance to beat it by by two
and a half or three. So that's my last one. And yeah, to mention Browns, just to get it in there, but it's not gonna count, not gonna count towards their draft. It's the vibes. It's the defensive decline. Jim Schwartz. Here's here's the more tangible reason. Jim Schwartz. I've been watching this now for twenty years. He just pops up every like five years with an absolutely electric defense. Go look
to see what happens the next year. Like the other fifteen sixteen years he's had as a defensive coordinator have mostly been fine. He did get two in a row at one point in Tennessee and that's what got him the Detroit job. But other than that, he has like four or five epic defensive seasons and the rest are just kind of in the middle. And so that's just like the decline. And then also just injuries like Watson's out of practice today with armswords.
Once, yeah, I was gonna say general armsord.
Right, I'm just saying I've talked so much about Watson, I'm always leaving that out of it because Jamis might not be even a downgreade, but Dalvin Tomlinson, Denzel Ward, Jack Conklin, Jedrick Willis, Greg News Like, it's all these guys going into the season. So that's a lot.
Yeah, it's literally fifty two people are hurt and they're on the side, and then the only one to feeld are Mike Brable and Jameis Winston running sprints over and over and over again. That's the twenty twenty four Cleveland Browns.
Sorry they're eleven in Oh no, I must have I must have clicked what they're They're.
Sorry, they're eight and a half, so it would be under eight and a half. E and a half's fair enough. It's just more. That's one where I could see the wheels falling off a little bit. Maybe I'm overrating, and I'm obviously like not a Watson fan, but but they them and the Saints stuck out to me as like teams that if they get off to a creaky start that it could.
Just I'm not touching the NSC South with a ten foot pole in.
This in this exercise. Yeah, I thought about over Bucks was on my list, but I didn't.
I didn't go there.
Just that division.
May I ask why I was surprised. There's a team that didn't come up either way, and it's the Vikings six point five. I had a disaster. Okay, I thought about under Vikings.
Okay, oh really bad. No, that was on this If we had like eight picks, they would have been over Vikings would have been one of my eight pick eight or nine picks. They were on my medium list. Why under Kevin?
That's cool? Well, because Sam Donald's been in the league for a long time, and uh, I mean, I mean, I pulled the stat up here. Since twenty nineteen, thirty nine quarterbacks have had one thousand dropbacks. Among that group, Donald ranks thirty seventh and EPA per play and thirty six in success rate.
Yeah, those first those first couple of years, I remember bringing it up on the Round the NFL podcast with the historical comps that Sam Darnald had were always like the worst quarterbacks in the NFLS three, I think he can be fine.
And then and then what happened in the ensuing years, Yes.
Yes, but Mina's with me on over Vikings. All right, let's let's recap. I know before I before I say goodbye, Kevin was wrong about the Vikings, but it's not going to count. We are going to keep track of this. Kevin went over Rams eight and a half, under Raiders six and a half, under Giants six and a half, and over Pats four and a half. So he did not, you know, really pick the best teams in the league.
He kind of trolled at the bottom. And we'll see Mina goes over Broncos five and a half under Chargers eight and a half. I like that over Seahawks seven and a half under Steelers eight and a half. Those all make a lot of sense to me. I have to find chill. Just went down my spine, and then I went for a lot of the more premium teams here. I went over Bills nine and a half, under Bears nine and a half, under forty nine Ers eleven and
a half, and over Texans nine and a half. To make my son happy, I wanted him to fill this out as an exercise. I thought maybe it could be part of the show. Even I gave him the list and he just went overs with like the four teams that made the championship game last year, and I just realized, like, you're not ready for this. You know, you're Jordan Love and your rookie season. That that's not good content. You're just taking overs on the four best teams.
Who was on television talking about football. I think your son is ready for this because what the analysis he just provided, I think would would work in certain programming.
You sound like Brian Flores and your son is Tua. You're just really giving him tough love.
No I didn't, you know, I didn't. I didn't tell that to him, but I was just like, okay, this is I don't know if this is good content. You're just all all the teams that made the final four being over. That doesn't that doesn't get me going. But he's a Texans fan, so he'll like that pick.
I mean, what if I rebranded next year. It was just one of those people who just tweeted how good a team's going to be every single day, like that be a crew move.
What kind of format are we talking about? Kind of tweet format?
Just just like I'll make a video and I'm just like, you know, everybody, everybody's sleeping, everybody's sleeping on the Raiders. Right.
I did not do an entire offseason of NFL Daily, But next year that is my plan to go through every team and at one point give their fan base just a little a little something to chew on that they're that they're underrated, because who's gonna really of them.
I feel terrible for saying this. There's a guy who does that in college, and I get really annoyed with him. And then one day he just sent me a random DA. He's like, every every team is like gonna be a problem this year. He just randomly sent me a DM. Never met them in my life, and he just said, thank you for all you do for the sport of football. And I was like, what a DM.
I love this guy, and you felt, just like all those fan bases he was calling you underrated.
Everybody's sleeping on.
Kevin Clark.
You guys, you guys did do a lot. You do a lot for the sport. You're you're making us all smarter. Kevin.
Can I quickly tell a Daniel Jones story that I wasn't able to tell earlier? Does anybody have to go?
You can't, You can't know now, there's no there's no time, none of us.
If the story sucks. If the story sucks, you can cut it. So I went to a Zach Bryan concert, which after Lenton at the Super Bowl, and uh, it was presented by a beer company, and I had a lot of the beer company. A lot of it was served, and I had a lot. And I was actually ironically going to afterwards meet up with the NFL Live crew
at a different event. So I have so much and I I'm leaving and it's late and I end up not meeting up with the NFL Live crew and Darlington and I are just just having a blasted the Zach Brian concert. And I checked my camera roll the next day and I kind of remember this. It wasn't like I blacked out, but I took an uncomfortably close photo of Daniel Jones and Shane Gillis talking to each other just to look at the valet, just like a creep shot.
And I don't know why I did it, Like I don't know if it was to send my Giants fan friends or whatever. But now I've been thinking, I've been horrified at this ever since. It is like did they look at me? And We're like, why is this guy taking a creepshot of us at the valet, which, by the way, I didn't valet a car. I walked down the veiggest trip. So now I've just got this creep shot on my phone and I now have been wondering if they looked at me, and we're like, this guy's a creep.
Well, let me tell you, I don't think Daniel Jones sees that far away that well, corback.
Brudo. I mean, we spend five minutes getting after Daniel Jones earlier, and then we end the show with that. I want you to send this, Kevin, and if you can send this picture to me, we could at it if you feel comfortable with that. But I'm with you. I did that same thing when I saw show on the on the field that the Rams game. I totally lost my mind because it was showed the show, Hey Tony, and then I realized, like, I'm being a total creep. I'm like three feet away from this this man and
bothering him, and so I regret it. I hope you don't regret that.
I'm not like I'm not. And I was so close, Oh my god, oh my god, I was so look at this. It was way too close.
Yeah, that's weird. Gillis always with NFL players. He was at Christian McCaffrey's wedding.
I don't know what, I don't know.
I I do appreciate what you guys do for football, Kevin though, I mean it. You're you're making us better, You're making us smarter with This is Football over at ESPN and obviously all the NFL programming around the horn there. Check out his podcast, check out the Mina Chaims Show featuring Leney and as I mentioned, yeah, I will be
back with our last show of the week. I'm very into the AFC South this year, Texans and Jaguars, who are actually doing a bit of a deep dive Seth Payne who covers the Texans, John Shipley who does the Jaguars, and will recap the preseason games until then the next day