The Around the NFL podcast puts up popae in Poppie from the Chris Westling podcast studio. It's Around the NFL.
I am Dan Hansis I got heroes here, Greg Rosenthal, Mark Sessler Busy, Busy, Busy Cowboys camp on Monday. Check out that one. The Hard Knocks podcast debuted with episode one recap Tuesday, and shout out to Eric Roberts behind the glass who's been grinding his heine off all week for us and doing elite production work. We did that with Connie and special guest Rich Eisen. Check that out if you haven't yet. And now we have two more new episodes of atn Today and Thursday Football.
Mark is back.
I want to if there are people out there that maybe aren't Hard Knocks aficionados and watchers and I go hot and cold on that show. I just want to say, listen to this episode that you and Rich and Polling did because I mean, well, we know you're a Jets fan and Riches too, but like you kind of designed in a really wonderful way, why how you became one? What this first episode meant? And yet it wasn't if you aren't a Jets fan.
It didn't. It wasn't laborious.
It was very well done and like, uh, I can only imagine the cloud that you're floating on seeing this whole Jets team and what they are.
I don't want to be that guy, but I think it is important sometimes to understand, like how lucky we are, like getting paid to watch the Jets Hard Knock Show and then talk about it with my friends.
It's it's pretty it's pretty awesome and really excited.
Rich like it would have blown your mind.
I got.
I listened to half of it. I listened to the rich part so far. Usually I would be listening on the way in. But we had a very important call with their great friend. We did Henry Hodgson, handsome Hank that cut into my time planning call.
Will leave it at that handsome fantastic.
It was fantastic.
What we'll do a little hard knocks talk a little bit later. But we got a lot going on today because we have one of the smartest football men in the business, Aaron Shatz Over at FTN. He released his annual Football Almanac twenty twenty three, and obviously, if you don't read this almanac, you're not really prepared for the season. So we're gonna dig in on the defensive side of the ball, which we haven't really tackled, tackled, nailed it.
We're gonna work that side of the ball.
That conversation with Aaron and what defenses stand out to him and what defenses might be ready for regression or to be outright terrible.
Get into all that, but first let's do some news.
Just understand this. I don't give what goes down this year. We will always be in games no matter what. We break some shoelaces and get a few points on us, guys, We're going to be in every game. Guys, this is across the field on the back shoulder.
Look at this.
I don't know there's any other human on earth that can make that throw. He's our quarterback, He's ours, he's ours.
Awesome, man, I think that should be a drop going forward. Eric Crawarts, Yes, as I said to Rich Eiesen.
Ulbrich, the defensive coordinator for the Jets, Jeff Olbrick, he speaks for all of this is Jets fenss.
Like he's ours, he's ours, he's ours.
Watching that episode and yeah, that was in the defensive room where the coordinator's going over some plays from practice.
We'll get some thoughts out there.
Anybody wants to hear my thoughts, obviously go check out the podcast with Connie and I, but episode one thoughts Smart.
We'll start with.
Allbri Good to me was one of the stars of the episode, because you know, you'd think it's just Salah calling the plays on defense and like, what does the coordinator do? I mean, I love his fire, and I think that there's something to him and what the jets are. There's a lot of connective tissue there, and I mean, I think this episode maybe if it lacked four or five like deep narrative threads like some hard knocks ones do, and this show us a chance to get into that.
It was really about the experience of Aaron Rodgers. And I think for those that have been critical of Aaron Rodgers, I'm certainly one of those in the past, Like this is a different version of this human being, and like you just get this feeling that he couldn't be happier being there, and you hear all the giggles and the anticipation when they're watching him whip that pass in that film session there with All Brick and it's like this
team and there's so many young players, but teams, teammates, coaches.
It's like they have watched Jesus Land.
That is sort of the aura I got watching this first episode, and it's kind of incredible because it reminds me of nothing the New York Jets have ever produced on a human level.
Right It was like the Hard Knocks version of Barbie. It was just like feel good, easy entertainment. But it was also like a little different than Hard Knocks usually is, like they decided to I think maybe mix it up. It was really all about Aaron Rodgers and the good vibes and everything, and it's cool to get go along on the journey with these teams, and it helps that the team is the center or one of the center pieces of the NFL right now. It just it just
does to be along the ride. It was great to be along the ride with the Lions, too, and I think that's why we enjoyed part of that, you know, season with them. I We'll see, it'll change over the next three or four weeks, but I really enjoyed it. And I loved the Weeds celebration that Sauce and Rogers had going on, and.
That they just suddenly alluded to it. They were like, expectations are higher in New.
York, wells Schreiber. Of course Greg would like who arrives in a helicopter.
And he's great in it. I love Schreiber.
I mean I already we all loved him, but like it's fun he there's, like Colin mentioned it, like there's this humility to him, and like he was like sort of a kid in a candy storey. Yet a bunch of those players are too young to really understand his career as an actor, and like Solid didn't even know he was the narrator of the show.
Yeah, we were talking about many and I were talking about that.
Yeah, put yourself in his shoes there, that the production team sends you to the practice in a helicopter literally landing next to the field and everyone's expecting, you know, some huge celebrity to get out, And.
Obviously Shriver's a celebrity.
But that was a funny little positioning of that and other thought on Olbrick because I already have regrets.
We do our MVP rankings at the end of each episode.
I should have put him a place in that conversation for just his takedown of the do your job complex.
That was that was good.
He actually he's gonna get on Belichick's radar.
He actually said that. He said, you got to do your job? What else are you going to do? It was time for somebody to take down do your job, which is the most tired cliche to post on walls and complexes.
An old brick did it.
I will dress there's too many, too many things on the walls with the jetstuff. They've got like fourteen different thing those slogans, thes, what is what is their main one?
I forget what it was. I'll guess no break, I know, but it's like a g no.
And I don't know. I don't know. It's like I don't know. There was a lot of areas.
It's too much.
What was that?
I just want to fly around like a butterfly.
If Zach Wilson never panned out, I will remember him eating uncrustable after a preseason and performance.
That was that.
I thought his his part of the show was a little uncomfortable.
No, I think it was good interesting.
I don't think it was a weird in a weird place, in a.
Very tough position, very tough position, especially if you're aging backwards and defying you know, humankind.
He's now sixteen years old.
Yeah, I was.
I was thinking this is the one quarterback that literally looks like a boy.
I was thinking it would be tough for Packers fans to watch this though. It's very much like watching the guy that your your favorite player, your best player for the last fifteen years, just be totally reborn, Like it wouldn't be a fun.
Ex wife, Yeah, you have four kids with and you were in love with and it just over time, it just broke down.
And then and it's on TV and.
That wasn't acting right like that was like on this very podcast five months ago, we're talking about how he's not acting right, how he was basically an inconsistent human, that he was being a jerk. And then you see him and suddenly he's in better shape. He's cracking jokes, he's happy, he's like a whole new guy.
And you're like, the Packers aren't innocent and all of that.
What about A and Rogers on TV is a lot.
Let's get into And yes, check out the Hard Knocks podcast and we'll have that up every Tuesday night on wherever you get your podcasts and on this feed to SATEN feed, So it's pretty easy for you people to check out if you want, you people, let's get to it. Ron Rivera, head coach of the Commanders, created a bit of a mess for himself this week. Eric B Enemy is the new offensive coordinator. We know b Enemy's history with the Chiefs and his long struggle to try to get a head coaching job.
It never happens.
So now he's off on his own attempting to build a bridge to that head coaching job.
So this is a very important year an era for the enemy.
As a head coach, Rivera said, some players are quote concerned with the enemy's intensity in training camp, which led to a big story both for and against the enemy. Mostly for the enemy and against Ron Rivera putting that out there. The commander's coach then followed up by offering a lengthy opening statement to his press conference on Wednesday, noting that his comments.
Quote took on a different life. Don't do that thing.
Don't do the thing where you blame the media for blowing up the story because you said it and you should know, Ronrivera, how this world works. But anyway, took on a different life than he intended, and that he wasn't as straightforward as he needed to be here as well else he.
Said, we talked about it and you know, and it was just I basically told him I put my foot in my mouth. I think what I said wasn't as clear as it needed to be. And I think the understanding of it is the fact that I think everybody's making, in my opinion, a little bit more than needs to be made of this, because again, the results.
Are what you're looking for.
On the field.
So far, the last couple of days have been outstanding.
I think Eric has done a great job of communicating his message now that guys you know, have opened up talk with him, it's been it's been a great bit of growth the last couple of days, that guys are starting to have the aha moments. That's why we do this, That's why we want that, you know.
It's Uh. We had a guy.
I just really burst out of it and the ball was right on time, and you sit there and go.
Long cave get it.
I think you slam on the desk at the end.
He gets real hyph.
I mean, but that's what I think.
How Rodn Rivera gets into trouble is he's just like a free and easy, like long answers to every question talker, and he's absolutely right.
Way too much was made about it.
I think people that read THEO and tried to make it more than it was didn't listen to how he said it and in context, because he was just kind of saying, how like, hey, look, players these days like they're not used to coaches that coach them hard, essentially, and that a couple of them had come up to him and say, hey, can you go talk to him?
But he was saying it sort of in a joking way, and the enemy has this reputation as a coach that he's always a little hard edge and people are just like, oh okay, and because not all there, not every coach is like that anymore, that they're that they're very sensitive to the players. But he also was saying, even as he was saying that the players coming up to him, he was talking it down and say like a lot of these play, you know, young players, they got to
get used to it. I think Bienemy's response was as telling as anything, though he said, yes I am intense. Eric Benemy is who Eric is, who he is Eric Benemy knows how to adapt, adapt it adjust. Eric Benemy is a tough, hard nosed coach. That's three third persons in three sentences. But he also says, you know, they got to understand I'm their biggest credit. I'm also there number one fan any of any of his foreign players. No,
I've got there back more than anyone. I'm gonna support this was but this was blown out of proportion.
I don't I don't. It'll it's dust in the wind, you know, hours from now. But I don't think that Ron Rivera who I'm If I had to pick a coach to like step in it in this way, I would not have put Ron Rivera in my top twenty.
I really wouldn't a lot.
I feel like over the long like this. This to me is like this. I mean, I think he didn't think it would turn into all this. But my problem is when he does the back pedaling where the ankle breaks dan he he read he had a written statement, you're Ron Rivera, You've been doing this for a long long time. Go out there and defend your coach.
How you know? That's how you know. He really had regrets about how it played out and how it was probably the media.
Yeah, but you don't you a written statement unless you're like in legal trouble.
This is this is like something. Just go back your guy.
He's just trying to put out a fire here.
Right, And I have no problem with like, I mean, so Ben Standing of the Athletic had it. I thought a good line. He said, there is intense and there is mean. The enemy's coaching style is firmly in the former category. I have no problem with this coaching style. I mean, I'm not a player, but I think I think the problem is that training camp largely sucks. I think you're gonna find them to be complaining about something at some point to someone.
And it's been a major shift.
And I think a lot of the reports though, coming out of Washington training camp is that your quarterback Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett have not been thriving like. There have been a lot of up and down, which is not surprising. But I think one of the more intriguing preseason starts is Howell versus the Browns on Friday night and.
They said they said they've gotten better, and Rivera alluded to that over the last handful of days. And interesting because he's a former running backs coach, and we sawed even at Cowboys practice, like running backs coaches are different. They're always the ones barking like crazy. And Viennamy has this reputation, which is interesting because when you watch quarterback,
he never said a word no, but he has. He's always had this reputation as a like particularly hard nosed guy barking on you, and that to me is very running back and very running backs coach ish.
But now he's the offensive coordinator running the whole.
Time, and it's in some ways a loaded subject.
So I don't want to take it too far in terms of what I saw on quarterback, but it was It was interesting how mahomes ninety five percent of his conversations in game and the heat of the battle throughout the season in the playoffs, was either with Andy Reid or with Matt Nagy.
It just was interesting to me.
So I'm really, you know, I, like everyone else, you want to see what the enemy does with this this great opportunity has well, we shall see. In other news, Minnesota Vikings owner Mark Wilf declined to say Tuesday whether he wants Kirk Cousins to re sign with the franchise when his contract expires after the conclusion of this season, putting that decision on GM Quescia, Doofo Mensa and coach Kevin O'Connell.
Here's Wilf's quote.
We'll leave that to Questi and coach to work through those discussions. There's always conversations on that, but our real focus is one hundred percent on twenty twenty three and getting where we need to be and where I know we can be. Mark My thoughts on this is this is cool. It's gonna work out. I think how it should. I think Cousins is going to have enough their productive, solid season. I think it's gonna put him in a position to get paid whether and he's gonna get paid again.
He's gonna sign another point deal, you know, two three year deal with whether it's a Vikings or someone else. And it makes sense for the Vikings at this point, assessing a relationship that's lasted since twenty eighteen.
Where are we? Where are we? Where we want to go going forward? Let's use this year as a real trial.
Yeah, there's no you know, consternation here. Cousins said back in June that he didn't even have any faint expectations that that even talk contract till next March.
And he knows that.
I think you know from I know you guys watched the whole quarterback thing, but from what little I know, I watched little snippets here and there. But I mean Kirk Cousins came out as the big winner of that whole thing. Is the nicest man on you know, east of the Mississippi. I guess if he is east or he's North's happening somewhere in there. I don't know, gone eas east and north, Yes, But to me, it's just like I think everything on.
North, I guess because it's it is. I mean, it's it's a north south tribute. It's not a sharp east.
What's going on out here west of the Mississippi just way nicer guy than Kirk Cousins.
I'd feel that he would have that on lockdown.
But he's west of the Mississippi.
Give the whole country, and I'll give them the west.
If he's west, he's west of Mark said east.
Oh well, Andy, so I'm giving him the whole I give them the whole nation, the whole thing continental.
He's west, not Hawaii and Alaska to keep that out of the convers come down with the east and west of the Mississippi too. Kind of defining aspect of this country used to be greg absolutely, but uh, you know what I mean.
Outside of me, I'm referencing it. How often is it getting guys?
You've got Aaron Shats and six mans.
It's a lot of pop. It's a lot of pops.
Go ahead ships.
No, I think vikings have set all off season. You know, we're redoing the books, we're cutting money, and we'll you know, a lot of change could be coming.
Yeah, old Kirk Gunn's gonna be before the start of that next country.
Let me get saying on Kimlin. No, No, he's going to be like thirty five.
There will be thirty six by the start of next season. It's like I'm doing. I got my top fifty free agents of twenty twenty four coming out this week, Dan Plug.
It Uh, not sure where to put Kirk.
I think I had him met around ten or eleven, but it's like that is getting up there where to me.
Ideally you would have him on a year to year you will take a deal.
He'll get more than that, I think from another team somewhere if the Vikings don't want to give more than year.
Speaking speaking of Vikings and quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater, once upon a time at first round pick the Vikings. He's bounced around a lot, obviously, and despite that, is always kept Greg Rosevedal's attention as his new project, perhaps his new version of Geno Smith, now that he needs a QB to get behind that he overlooked.
With them both. You know, his eyes are wandering, you know.
Now that he's he's like one of those Uh, it's like one of those men who you know, he's with the who's with the wife, and then he hits it big and then all of a suddenly I start darting around.
You know. That's that's Geno.
You think Geno's that's Geno's attitude. He seems to be.
It's like quite pleasure and thank you for all the sport, you know, during when I was kind of down. But now I have a lot of options. I have a feast in front of me.
I think he's bare. I don't know my existence as a human. He does follow me on Twitter, uh, and I don't think that's changed.
I think that's been Craig trying. That's what I'm saying.
That's why I'm saying barely, because if you get the likes here and there, I get at least throw in the barely. Teddy Bridgewater, I'm pretty sure is unaware of my existence. But I am happy he's a lion.
I mean, I would say this, and it happened again at the Cowboys camp. A lot of people know Greg. Greg's been in the business for a long time. You've done your job at a high level. We're we're very lucky to have you the team here at around the NFL. And uh so I would not be surprised that Geno Smith recognized you.
No, I would not be sprissed.
But Greg also pointed out that Jerry Jones recognized him when when he walked by and basically vaguely that was me though I was Dan. Well, then then what are we talking like? I mean, you know, this entire show is filled with people like this.
So if Teddy ever was going to become the next Gino, he's in the right place now. I don't want Jared GoF to get hurt because that's what it would take. Uh, Teddy is better than Nate Sutdfield. I assume he's gonna win that job. Do I think Teddy would be any worse than Jared Goff if you cook over?
I do not.
Still, Yeah, I don't know.
I think Jared Goff was quietly We're still doing the best version.
We're still taking down Jared Goff. Really, I'm not just trying to have a say, solid career.
In this great situation that is the Detroit Lions. Teddy Bridgewater would put up excellent numbers and be able above it all these.
Years if he can stay healthy.
Yeah, I feel like all these years of bouncing around for Teddy now he's had opportunities to kind of find his place, find his footing. The fact that it still hasn't happened, I think it tells you something, not that he's a bad quarterback and certainly a likable guy and a great comeback story after what happened with his knee injury.
Which was seven years ago at this point.
I mean it tells you, yeah, he's he's hurt too much to be relied upon. But but I still remember that Denver season, isn't it?
Nice?
Nice little job?
All right?
A couple more things you know that tragic story had Rugg's former first round pick of the Raiders who got drunk at a bar or a club and then went driving home in Vegas a couple of years back, rear ended at a crazy speed a poor woman and her dog and they both burned to death in the car. And he was way over the legal limit. It's a terrible story all the way around. And Rugs twenty four years old.
Now.
He's been out of the league after the Raiders cut him shortly after that incident in November of twenty twenty one. On Wednesday, clark Keunty District Court Judge Jennifer Schwartz told Ruggs that it was one of the more tragic cases she had seen.
In her sentencing of Rugs to three to.
Ten years in that fatal dui, Ruggs said, to the parents and family of miss Tinter that's the woman who died in the accident. Tina Tinter, I sincerely apologize for the pain and suffering. I don't even really know what else needs to be said on that one, boys, But just like one of the sadder stories, up with a little eight o'clock delight.
The Texans lose newly signed tackle. We missed that one a few weeks ago Titus Howard got a big deal, good tackle combo in Houston.
But they're not going to be around Mark He's out. Nope, they got Laramie Tunsel. You do have George Fund maybe maybe you can help.
Out and Rams back in.
John john said, Leev Schreiber, Leave Schreiber.
I say leave.
I've got to get that right.
But I am hearing people say Leev no, and I don't like that at all.
What is it? Eric?
Can you check that you're reading more of Leev? You feel like in Russia it would definitely be Leev.
I'm self conscious when I say it.
Every day I've been saying leave my entire life.
I'm okay, go ahead.
The Rams signed, uh John Johnson what.
Johnny jo Safety?
Uh?
Brown's Rams also came on our show.
Came on our show when we thought we were getting Robert right, but at the Old Coliseum and we were.
Like hamah hamanaha, we do in.
Your ear Like seconds before he sat down, it was like, this is John Johnson of the Rams Safety.
He was a rook It was a rookie at the time, very close to the old Zeuser saying well, Robert Woods, great to have you on the show.
That would have went well.
Kareem Hunt visited the Colts after a trip to the Saints. Jadavian Clowney visited the Ravens. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trash will each start a preseason.
Game, though this could bubble into the worst quarter they are.
They are co number one QBS on the depth chart. Can we calm down a little bit over there in Tampa?
That's yeah, not fun.
Broncos lost another starter, Mike Mclinche's out two to three weeks, and then Rashad Bateman off the pup list for the Ravens.
It sounds like JK.
Dobbins is probably gonna end his holding fairly soon, even though no one has called it all.
Right, And I'll tag that with Jonathan Taylor's left the scene and indeed to rehab his he's got inside.
I actually think this is something where the journalism industry had an impact, because the Colts beat writers were like, can we get Jonathan Taylor off the field? Scowling at every practice, it's just sort of bad vibes, And then like a day or two later, they're like, he's just inside rehabby It's like if he's just gonna be standing there.
That's it's kind of awkward.
That's what's happening in the news promo time.
Football is back and NFL Network has every preseason game, including twenty three of them live, twenty three and twenty three. Big names putting new cities on their backs, a new class putting their names on the map. Your team is back in action. It's time for football. The NFL Preseason August tenth through the twenty sixth on NFL Network and stream on NFL Plus.
We'll be right back with Aaron Shatz. Wow.
You know, I asked Eric to send me something a little fresh.
Eric is from a different generation than us, and he found something that I don't think we.
Would have foun This sounds like something that was playing out of the boombox when Woody Harrelson and Lesley Snipes are dribbling poorly and white Man Kenjum.
Has a bit of a CNC music factory vibe to it.
Here's a man that has a CNC music factory vibe to No, that doesn't make sense.
He is a great man. He is one of the pre eminent football minds.
He's the Oppenheimer of you know, detailed, nuanced takes on football, founder of Football Outsiders, and now he's got his new UH partnership with FTN as Football Almanac twenty twenty three.
Aaron Schatz, Welcome back to Around the NFL.
Hey, thanks for having me back on. I think I'm more Oppenheimer than I am CNC Music Factory.
Yeah, you were a DJ though, I do remember that you professional day.
You were looking down on CNC.
Yeah, that's in that Nathaniel Hackett, you know, dance instructor category right there, that you were a DJ.
I'm impressed. I would not have I would not have guessed then.
Yeah, it was my first job out of college.
My buddy Bob and I saw Soul Asylum at the Troubadour like five years ago.
How about that.
Yeah, they're still going.
Still doing it, still doing the things.
Not a band, still going, not all the original members, but still going.
Got Perner in there, some of the Souls went back to her Wenona Ryder not in attendance, but I did look around Aaron Shatz again, this is it, and this is the guy. This is the almanac that you need to study ahead of a football season. And we're lucky enough to have him here, and we wanted to really kind of dive into the defensive side of the ball in our conversation with you, because there were some things when you kind of look at your breakdowns on the DVOA side of things that really stood out.
Greg.
I mean, why don't you get us going with this conversation? What's what's a rating that Shats and his team had that really jumped out.
To Yeah, I was fascinating.
First, let's let's go through like what you your top five work, because it's interesting on defense in terms of DVOA projections to his Bills, Jets, Cowboys, Niners, and then Commanders and the Bills being on top kind of gets to something I've been noticing lately that there's this feeling that it's like, well, has their window closed, or like you know, is the rest of the league caught up
and passed the Bills. And I do feel like I'm taking crazy pills a little because they won thirteen games a year ago and they've had a stable a.
Defense as anyone. So why do you think Bills and Jets especially came out on top when you're looking at it? Because I saw also you have the Bills as your Super Bowl pick, which is weird that that's going to be I feel like a not a trendy pick this year. The Bills getting to the super Bowl finally.
Yeah, the thing about the Bill. One of the things about the Bills, and this also goes for the Cowboys, is that people overestimate in their minds the effect of one playoff instead of thinking about the much larger sample size of the entire regular season. And so, yeah, the Bills. The last time we remember the Bills, they were not playing well. That was a loss, no question about it. But they had a phenomenal regular season. They've had a
couple of phenomenal regular seasons. Their defense has been really good, and they've added a bunch of stuff to their defense, right, like by getting guys back from injury and adding Leonard Floyd, Like, their defense should be better. They have a whole year of Tradavius White, they get Micah Hyde back. There's just a lot of reason to believe that their defense can be even better this year than it was last year.
I looked at this list and right away I have a very clear number one thing that jumped out to me. I'll say it before I jump into that though, that this almanac that you guys put every year, like the writing. You know, I'll go read this in like taverns and restaurants and like I'll be cracking up at some of the stuff that's going on. So back in the day the Farmers, they wrote an almanac, a lot of data, not good writing, not intriguing.
This is a different type of almanac. Pick it up.
But you have the Falcons as the tenth defense and I know they had it. They did a lot this offseason, so you're weighing some of that. But i'd branch that off to say that when you go through your projected win totals, you have the Falcons as the third highest team in the in the in the NFC, at point one, above Philadelphia and just below San Francisco and Dallas. I mean, Greg and I have been on this Falcons thing. Dan is now there too. I think they're going to be
so fun to watch. But what brought you to this place? What is the for of your belief? Because this was the thing that stood out to me more than anything else.
Defense and schedule. So we think their defense is going to really improve. There's a variable in our system based on a combination of you know, free agent additions, getting guys back from injury, and drafting rookies. High Buffalo is actually number one in that variable because of all the guys they're getting back from injury, but Atlanta is number two Jesse Bates and Kaleiis Campbell and Caden Ellis and they've just added a ton on defense, and then their
schedule is remarkably easy. I know it sounds strange given that the NFC South was won by a team with a losing record last year, but the Saints and Falcons schedules are so much easier than the other thirty teams that it is really likely that you're going to have two NFC teams NFC South teams in the playoffs over teams that are better than them but have harder schedules, because if you look at the overall DVOA projections, the Saints and Falcons are projected to be average, like not good,
just average. But the schedule is so easy. The hardest quarterback that either of those teams plays is Trevor Lawrence. And then the Falcons also have Aaron Rodgers, which the Saints don't have because they play the Patriots instead of the Jets. And as far as top quarterbacks in the league. That's it. Then I think the next hardest one they play is Kirk Cousins. Like they just have really easy schedules.
I don't like this because I was already toying around with putting them both in the playoffs, like in my in my mind, but now I feel like shots took a little bit of my Oh that's kind of a good sandwich prop thunder here.
Not happy with that.
But you do have them as top ten defenses, both of them, so even even separate to the schedule, that that would be amazing because the Falcons had one of the worst defense in the league of years.
Now I'm curious, not to get off topic, but who's like kind of the inverse of that, a team that all your data really backs up as being a good team, but the schedule is so brutal that it's going to depress their value and hold them back.
Maybe the Chargers, the Jets. Yeah yeah, AFCAST the four hardest schedules in the league are the four AFC East teams.
Miami you have eight and a half wins project did Patriots are eight? And I was a little surprised that neither of those teams were in your top ten defensive projections, because that's not taking into account schedule, that's looking at how effective they're going to be. When I came up, I tried to come up with what my five were before I looked at yours, just curious how they'd be different. And I had forteen. I had Cowboys, forty nine, Ers, Bills, Patriots, Dolphins.
I had all three of the AFC teams in a top five. And you don't have the Dolphins or the Patriots particularly close. You have the Jets and the Bills at a whole other level to them.
Yeah, the Patriots. The Dolphins are interesting because the Dolphins didn't have a lot of takeaways last year, so there's reason to believe that they're going to be better. But you know, obviously no more credit for Jalen Ramsey, right, So sure, I think the thing about the Dolphins, some of this has to do with splits of stats and certain down, down in play situations. It's sort of complicated to get to. But for the Dolphins, I think part of it is that mentally, everyone wants to feel like
Vic Fangio comes in and builds a top five defense. Yes, and historically Vic Fangio does not come in and immediately build a top five defense. Most of the teams he's been with have taken some time to have their defenses develop into being top defenses. So I don't think that Fangio necessarily equals a top five defense on his own. And then a lot of this is just general regression from both of these teams, Like they were good on third and short last year, and that tends to regress
a little bit. And you know, in general, an important analytic precept is defense is harder to project than offense. So you know, the defensive projections are just not going to be as accurate as the offensive ones. And a lot of the teams are sort of grouped around the middle because we don't quite know what's going to happen with defenses.
I think, you know, if you ask the average fan what the triumvirt of power is in the AFC, it's very clearly Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati to most people. I don't know if you're going to be having a delightful trip to Cincinnati anytime soon. This got on Greg and my radar as well, that you have the Browns overall as number one, the ninth Bens defense and the Bengals down at twenty six.
That's through me.
But then also Cleveland is the third best team in the AFC with a ten point five win total and Cincinnati at ten point two. I mean, I know you're not doing this for clicks and tweets and stuff, but like, this is going to get on some people's radar.
I would imagine, Yeah, notice that Cincinnati is better but has a harder schedule, so Cincinnati does come out slightly better. But yeah, the fact that we have Cleveland so high is going to surprise people. Defensively, we like what they've done with the additions to offseason, people like Sadarius Smith. I think their defense is going to really improve. Offensively, it's about sample size. You have three years of them having good offenses with bad quarterbacks, and then you have
six bad games at the end of last year. And you have all of Deshaun's Watson's career of him being good and then six bad games at the end of last year. So what means more all of that sample of Kevin Stefanski running a good offense and Deshaun Watson running a good offense were those six games. I mean, we're going to bet that it's the larger sample that tells you more about how good Cleveland is. And then
we have Cincinnati. They lost a lot of talent in their secondary, so we do have them declining a little bit on defense, and that's what puts Cleveland slightly ahead of them in wins. Although it's not like Cincinnati. Cincinnati is not a major Super Bowl contender. They have our number two projection on offense.
That's surprising, but you still have you have them as like one of the five teams that are the top ten offense and a top ten defense.
Cleveland. Yeah, we have Cleveland right on the edge of the top ten in both offense.
Is that because Jim Schwartz used to blurb your No Football Outsiders Almanac back in like two thousand and five.
That was a good pop for you though early on that you got a real big football guy, it would always be like Bill Simmons, maybe Peter King I feel like, but it would always be Schwartz. It would always be Jim Schwartz's quote on the front of the book that would be like, these guys really know what they're talking about.
You know what Greg is going for here? Greg wants a blurb at some point in the future.
Oh, we'll take it. Oh, I'll take it happily. Yeah, we counted him as a new defensive coordinator the way we normally do with new defensive coordinators. It is a new scheme they're learning, and all other things being equal, teams take a little bit of a step back when they have to learn a new scheme. But of course all things aren't equal because of the talent that they added in the offseason, and you know other statistical trends.
Seahawks, you had a seventh on defense. You wrote to me, you put your top twelve in an order very nicely for me, and you thought that was the biggest surprise of your top ten.
Yeah, this is another one where they added talent. They're the number three in the added talent variable because they drafted the cornerback so high and then getting Bobby Wagner back and then getting Dreamont Jones. This is probably right the defensive projection that I like. If you ask me subjectively, I think we're too low on the Seattle offense and too high on the Seattle defense, and probably right about them overall.
I get what you're doing with Minnesota's defense. They are dead last at thirty two. I do think Brian Flores could get them a little bit of a boost, but you know, personnel wise, it's a bit of an apocalypse. But overall, I mean, I kind of love what you did with the with the Vikings because this will be another minor earthquake up in that part of the country. You have them at six point four wins, so you're basically saying all these what happened last year was ultimately a massive mirage in.
Terms of yes, they were twenty seventh in DVA. Overall, despite being thirteen and four, it was like the weirdest season of all times. So like all advanced stats said the Vikings were overrated, but we may have had them
lower than anybody. And then they went out lost talent, right, no more feeling, No more's a Darius Smith, no more Patrick Peterson, so you know, Dalvin Cook, also Kendrick So yeah, I mean, I just don't think Minnesota's going to be very good, and I don't think they think they're going to be that good because I think that Adolphamenza ran the off season as if they're rebuilding, right, and they
ran a rebuilding off season. I think he saw the analytics and said, we're not a thirteen and fourteen trying to get to the super Bowl. We're a rebuilding team. We're going to have a rebuilding off season.
And we talked about in our news before we had you on, Aaron that they're keeping their options open with cousins because I think they're using this as a big evaluation year, not we're going for this or we have the core in place already over in the NFC West.
I get it, I get it. You.
In terms of win projections, you have the Rams at five point eight, Arizona also at five point eight, and on the defensive side, you have the Rams thirtieth. And I think it's kind of hard to wrap your head around that a defense that has Aaron Donald ostensibly still in or near the peak of his game anchoring a
defense that could be this bad. But I would imagine for the exercise and the projections you do, they are a unique case because they just have so many new faces there and they're just kind of starting from scratch.
Yeah. I was gonna say, Okay, Aaron Donald, name another defender on the Rams. You guys can do it, of course, right, you guys know, Hey, John Johnson just signed there, which isn't incorporated in this because that happened after we finished the book.
Now it's a bad side. I saw on their poster.
Jordan Fuller was on their poster, who's like a fourth year safety for fans out there, you know, and that defensive captain. Like that's a pretty big steep fall from Aaron Donald to Jordan Fuller.
Their secondary is almost all Day three draft picks, and you know, other than Fuller, not established really players. There's like one linebacker, Ernest Jones, Like there really isn't a second off ball linebacker, Like, I don't know what they're gonna do when they need to play nickel or bass.
It's unusual to see the Ravens down as the twentieth defense in the NFL.
Yeah, that's surprising.
Yeah, there's a little regression there. You know, high turnovers last year, their defense getting a lot younger this year than it was last year. The system doesn't really like that that much. They were particularly good on third downs last year, so it sees that regressing a little bit. I mean, we like the Ravens overall. The thing that people forget about the Ravens is you can always pencil them in for, if not the best special teams in the league, close to the best special teams in the league.
It's like this hidden little bump that they get when you're thinking about what they're going to do this year, Like special teams are impossible to predict, except the Ravens. You know they're going to do.
For a while, it was the Patriots and uh, yeah that's over. That's over, Cliff, I am. I do think the Ravens defense is going to be better, but I'm basing it on uh, subjective things, which is that I think their defense took a little bit to catch on last year under uh the new coordinator MacDonald. And then I'm buying like little camp reports where it's like Michael Pierce is like a once in every three year player, but he sounds like he's looking pretty awesome this year.
I think some of their young players, like Matt a Bouquet away a Jabo, like a lot of guys who haven't quite produced at the NFL level. A full season of Rokwan Smith and Queen together, which which seemed like a great combination last year. There's questions in the secondary, but they're a team to me. That and you you said it, defense is hard to predict that. Like, if you told me they're a top five defense this year,
I wouldn't be totally shocked. I feel like they have a chance at doing that, and really so I don't think shocked.
You're right, edge rushers, right, Like part of it is they've they haven't had a really good edge rush for a couple of years, and they've depended on like rental veterans like justin Houston. If those guys get it together and you know that they have talent Jabbo and Oda Fay, oh, like, yeah, they could be a much better defense than we're projecting. Sure. Absolutely.
Another team that you have falling off a cliff after an inspiring campaign a year ago in New York the Giants, the g Men, Yeah.
They were the mini Vikings.
Basically were you about might as well tum Aaron, do the talk about it?
Talk about it?
No? I thought I emphasized that g Men and then just like leave it to you the state you talk about it.
Yeah, I mean they they were a little overrated last year. I think Daboll did an amazing job and ran a great offense. Their defense was man and they won games. They you know, were very close in and their overall numbers weren't great, but the thing is they're sort of, hey, here's a team that's having kind of a lucky year.
Was so overshadowed by the vikings like yours ever that, you know, and then the two teams faced each other in the playoffs, which was, you know, it was like battle of the network frauds, which the Giants won because they were better in our numbers over the course of the season.
But kind of messed up the NFC playoffs a little bit because we got the fraud the fraud game, and then he had the Eagles dismantling the fraud that won the next week.
We don't need all those frauds, right.
It's good that the Eagles played so well in the Super Bowl.
I know they lost, but it was a classic because before that it was like no team has ever had such a buye to the Super Bowl.
If the story is that the Giants play better than this because Dave Bowl coaches the heck out of them, I will buy it. Like I think Dave Bowl was a great coach last year. And it's hard, you know, it's hard to control for that in a stat analysis system.
Right, So they coached up that defense.
I'm with you on paper, they coached up their defense to get it to even respectable last year. And in the back end, it's like Deontay Banks is getting smoked at at practice reportedly basically linebacker and secondary is trouble. But they're looking at it like, our lines are pretty good and if you have good lines, that's a good base to build from.
And we might yeah, you need a good secondary too, right.
I don't.
I don't see it with them. I think they're a solid fourth for me.
Let's end it this way, Aaron, because this is in some ways the most vital question in your business and all of sports. What do you have to say to the one thing You can't measure his heart, Mafia.
I mean you measure heart, because if a guy's heart makes him play better than his muscles would make him play, it's gonna come out in his performance.
The heart is a muscle.
Hard will be in the numbers, the heart the numbers.
What you can't measure is whether guys get along in the locker room. You can't measure coaches, you know, uh, making their players play better through inspiration. That kind of stuff you can't measure. But I mean I feel like, you know, if a player wants it more, then you're gonna see it in his numbers because he's gonna do it more.
Asking for a friend. Last question, last, last question, is momentum real?
No?
Oh, I mean you knew that, you know, well.
You know we have a buddy, Patrick Claibon. Yes, I'm actually doing him a favor. I thought that it would align.
I felt we would go that way with I'm with him.
I know I know how much players and coaches feel it, but you can't ever define it in such a way that's actually testable. I mean, I'm less than football anyway, because when the defense does something, the offense comes on. Like completely different players come on the field after the offense does something or the defense does something. So it's not even like you know in basketball, where you know, you let up a ten ozer run and then you're
still on the court. Like football, completely different players are suddenly on the field.
Yeah, you'd just like to agree with clayboun and everything. Greg, I don't believe you.
I bet we could find one hundred instances on this podcast where you talk about lentum swinging.
No, I think it's a lot, Eric, I have a project for you this week.
Oh, a big project.
I think it's a little more nuanced. But if you have to go just black and white, yes, no, then it's basically no because it's it's a movie.
Here's the deal with Aaron chats Uh.
He's over with the FTN Fantasy crowd and his football Almanac is as good as ever.
Where could people get it? Get that plug in?
So the PDF version you can get at ftnfantasy dot com. Look for the picture of Patrick Mahomes. He's on the cover of the book.
Smart.
There's a physical copy also. It's currently in review by Amazon, but within the next day or two that should be available as well on Amazon. So physical book on Amazon, Pdf at FTN fantasy dot.
Com under review.
Yes, someone's got to read the whole thing in like one day. That's a bit.
There's a lot going on here, so.
You have to make sure our fonts look right right.
It's like Bezos says up in his office. He's like, actually, momentum is real. I'm gonna need you.
It's a big red stamp, like.
Like they're going over on the commanders.
There you go. Aaron Schautz thank you for the time you got it. Thanks Aaron. There he goes.
Listen, Greg, I I just think you're saying this because I know that's the smart football guys.
I've always believed that.
I just don't like getting in the same arguments over and over on this podcast. But back in the day, if you went back to like twenty thirteen, we were in those arguments.
I know.
I mean, I'm not that I'm not that surprised that Greg takes the more robotic Earth approach to this topic.
But you know, I kind of disagree entirely.
I don't like the battle against science because science usually wins out, but it can't win verbally. But there is there's something beaten in here.
Okay, yeah, go talk to the real players who play.
There's a motion drive not just sports, but important the human race and really all animals.
Do you ever feel momentum when you were play a teenage tennis player, Greg.
Well, that's a one on one sport.
How about how about when you.
Did well with removing a lot of the variables when it's a one on one sport.
But there's the scientists over here, now over here, Now about the girls.
In high school when you got on that nice run you were on. Yeah, you had the girlfriend after girlfriend, and then things slowed down a little bit.
Like college. That was momentum.
My friend was one. It was born out of the momentum of one girl.
And we're talking about in a football game first of all.
Now, right, just like.
Leaving them behind. Oh I'm bored of you. First period, that's my first period, girl. I got my fourth period, girl, I got my seventh period.
Girl, lunch lunch time.
Speaking of hearts, you didn't care about their hearts.
I cared a lot my heart.
That's why I think was working out, because it's like when people talk about high school and they're like, oh, yeah, they're this one girl. I had a bigger Like didn't you have a crush on like thirty girls in high school all the time? Wasn't it always changing? And there was like many at once Because there's so many.
There was the crush that was like.
I rejected, like some of them they feel your vibe and you're getting backed back.
But you could lock in on one, which is a mistake. That's what you went back in high school. You lock in on one and you don't see anything else.
Right, there's the unattainable crush that you might have. Then there's the one that you think is attainable. Yeah, there are different levels of it.
Right, I think I'm such a lover, you know, not a rope that it was just it was just the vibes were going out to many people, and then you're you're bound to.
Uh, we should just subjects. I don't.
I don't think we're gonna agree on this one. I think you were cold and emotionless in high school and you just you just had notches on your on your bedpost rather than caring about people.
It's tough to watch, tough to see.
I was at the Tailor Swift Show, which was an incredible, incredible scene, by the way, and I even as a tailor Swift and I am not near the level of the true Swifties, So I just kind of watched it from a distance, and it is a very cool vibe. I don't have any daughters, Greg, you do have a daughter. It was so cool to see you. I have a daughter, you do, I mean a eighteen She kind of started over that relationship and you guys are working through it. It was so great to see the vibe in Sofi Stadium.
Of this is an outdated term, the girl power, but it was just like this this great communal experience of everyone like loving this woman who puts out all this positive energy and it's such a great role model.
I was as like as a dad, I was like, this would be a concert.
I would make sure to take my daughter to to show the power of that's great.
Did we ever find out who won that?
In?
Like?
That raffers that much?
Though? Then I wouldn't take her.
I guess I would take her to you know something else, the Beyonce Show.
I wanted to hear about your experience, So I'm glad you.
Told who I was who won this raffle? By the way, did we ever get any We never got any info on that. Did you see any like and a half hour?
By the way?
Wow? Really?
Yes? Wow? Just one tonight.
Yeah.
Speaking of Clay and we were talking, he was he came up with an idea to go sit up on the roof of our building and just see what you could hear, because you can hear rams games really well.
So it's like we heard the show on the top of the parking.
We left work on Thursday, and I could hear the sound check I mean it sound quality is not great from there, but it's something.
Yeah, it was great and an insane production. Like I don't know how she does it. I have no idea how she's doing it night after night.
All right? Anything else?
Oh, I have one thing developing news.
Boots on the ground. We mentioned the rams.
Jordan Rodrieg, who covers that team so well, she's been all over the story helping figure out. Uh, we don't call t shirt gate because we don't use gate around here, but what is the who's responsible for? You know that shirt? Right, let's flash that up again for the YouTube audience. Mentally and physically tough players who play smart and love to compete. But there's and spelled out and then there's an amber sand disaster.
Here's here's what Jordan had to tell me.
Huse, we've been kind of back and forth all week on it. According to Jordan, both of Sean McVay quotes Model the Way, which is the other shirt we saw as a reminder to him and some of the vets to walk the walk this year and get back to teaching, where he's admitted he's gotten away from. He's admitted he got away from living his other slogans we not me
et cetera, et cetera last season. Now, the shirt in question, this was very interesting according to Jordan, and this isn't hard reporting like this is just based on conversation she has had. And I just want to make that very clear. It's it's presented more as a leading theory gathered from whispers around camp. Okay, that the shirt and the way it's written, what is a syntax?
Sure?
I mean even just choosing to put all those words on the shirt, I'm counting them now. I think there's twelve words. It's a lot of words, no traumas, mixed use.
Of Amber San's that's the way Sean McVay texts on his phone. And the running theory according to Jordan, and this is not hard reporting, but just formulated on conversations is he texted whoever the assistant was to make the shirt, and of course said that assistant, you know, would not dare to deviate from the word of the initial text from their boss. They just basically cut and pasted it onto the T shirt design and that's how you end up with.
This situation of it.
This is an a plus work by Jordan, not surprisingly, I think a more empowered assistant. But you were assuming the assistant is even caught by the end and the ampersan. Maybe that's not in their world, but if you were, you might want to go back to McVeigh and say, I'm here to make you look good. Nerds out there, who are you know, grammatical nerds are going to look at the and the ampersan and be thrown by it. Probably not all your players, some, but like you know, some of them are also if it was.
A test by McVeigh to see if set assistant would confront him or approach him, right, and it's being used, I mean, if I'm.
Not there, it's like sleeping way yes, man or woman. Uh, it's not about the assistant. It's about that terrible text. Because you can fix the and and the and and there's no ampersand and it's still a mouthful that you don't want on a T shirt.
It's a terrible T shirt. So it's all on McVeigh.
And I think if he wants to live, you know another slogan like how about take some responsibility, stand up at the podium and say that's on me.
I didn't understand the game I was playing.
We're not far from mam. Maybe we got to get up there right.
I didn't understand the T shirt game, and I made a mistake because I think it's ultimately.
Turned on the air conditioning, get the cargoing. Eric, we got a road trip. Also, have you ever done an Amber sand On on text? You have to do like the shift.
Down and five.
I've done him multiple times.
I mean, that's that's something he sought out the amberd there.
Well, yeah, I think there's just something. The questions become deeper and they become more disturbing.
Sean mcvayb being an All Caps Texter is the least surprising news of the day. He's like, he's like Rhine Bould, our friend at skuy on Twitter, just like all Caps All.
That's past.
All right, that's it. We'll be back Thursday with another show. Make sure you check that out and.
Anything else.
Mark No, I think this was just an absolute delight and a joy. Thank you to Aaron Schatz, Thank you to Dan, thank you to Greg, thank you to Eric. Behind the Glass, thank you everyone else behind the glass.
Goodbye. How about Parker, Parker