Hey guys. So I'm gonna get you to the regularly scheduled top of the show with the song and the conference championship picks against the spread with Cynthia Friedelan in just a second. But as Cynthia and I were finishing our show game debut, which is on NFL Network you can check it out, I see a tweet from our guy rap Sheet. He's breaking some news and I'm gonna
quote him here. Plot twist. Bucks offensive coordinator Liam Cohen has been speaking with the Jaguars in person for their head coaching job, and he is a key candidate to be the coach in Jacksonville. Per Me and Tom Pella. Sero, Liam Cohen, you dirty dog. I just had to talk about this and include it as part of the show
before we break for the weekend. Gonna be our first Saturday in about six weeks without football because I love stories like this and it's fascinating and I've seen a lot of different coaching maneuvers over the years, but I've never seen anything quite like this, and it's going to change a couple of division races, I believe in twenty twenty five. If Cohen ends up being the Jaguars head coach, and it looks like he's going to Let's back it
up a day to Wednesday. Okay, it's announced by our insiders and really all around the media that Liam Cohen has agreed to return to the Bucks as their offensive coordinator. The Bucks agreed to make him one of the highest paid offensive coordinators in the NFL. I don't know if any offensive coordinator did a better job than Liam Cohen in twenty twenty four. He was incredible with Baker Mayfield
and the Bucks. Great news for the Bucks. A couple hours later, the Jaguars release a statement that Trent Balkey has been fired, and if you listen to the end of our Marathon Championship game preview show talked about that and it really seemed like a response to what happened with Liam Cohen. Shot Con Their owner had said previously in a press conference that he's standing behind Trent Balki,
but that he would keep his mind open. And what happened here is I think he found out that Trent Balki was coaching poison and he decided to throw Trent Balki, his general manager for five years, off the boat. And what I should have thought about then, but I didn't because we had already heard Liam Cohen agreed to return to the Bucks. Was that the Jaguars were going to make another push for Cohen, and that's exactly what happened.
Part of the intrigue here is the reporting from all over the place, Jonathan Jones with CBS, Adam Schefter with ESPN that Liam Cohen ghosted the Bucks, that they have not heard from Liam Cohen or his representatives all day long before they see the rap sheet report that he's literally in Jacksonville in them building meeting with the Jaguars. For Cohen to take that meeting, he better be ready to take that job, because at this point he has a lot of people upset. A couple questions for Liam
Cohen assuming he takes this Jacksonville job. Number One, can he build a staff. Our friend Ali Connolly has kind of been all over this Liam Cohen story, and he has said publicly Cohen that he only wants to take a job when he feels like he's fully ready, and there are some questions about whether he has enough contacts
through the leagues. He's been bouncing around between Kentucky and the Rams and now to the Bucks, and the circumstances with which he left Kentucky high and dry are awfully similar to this one that maybe he didn't communicate too much with them before he left for the Bucks. There's a question of what kind of staff can he build, Does he have the right general man that you're in mind, or is he just trusting the Jaguars to do that. His guy is believed to be John Spytech, who reportedly
agreed to become the Raiders next GM. Is that contract in writing? Who knows? There could be more drama here, But if Cohen is there, what great news for Trevor Lawrence. We'll find out if he can be a successful head coach. But I think he was an incredible play caller and has really learned a lot over his years play calling. And if you're a Trevor Lawrence fan, if you're a Jaguars fan, this is absolutely great news. And it's almost
just as brutal news if you're a Bucks fan. The buzz going around the NFL right now is that Jason Light the Bucks GM is not happy about this, and the reports that are out there that they didn't hear anything about it until it apparently was too late. Is gonna get people upset and it's not a great job by Liam Cohen. Then again, I don't know the full story, so I think it's unfair to totally judge from the outside.
You don't know what you don't know. You see this with player acquisitions in free agency quite a bit, and ultimately, there's nothing that the Bucks can do. If he wants to take a head coaching job, he can go take a head coaching job, even if he verbally agreed with the Bucks. One of the interesting wrinkles is that it has been reported now that he did let Todd Bowles know Thursday evening that he was interviewing with the Jaguars.
It's such a crazy situation because the Bucks were hoping, I believe, to have their cake and eat it, to keep Todd Bowles, who's been a good hood coach for them and is a great defensive play caller, and keep Liam Cohen. It is interesting to think about what the Bucks would have done if they knew all along that Liam Cohen was going to leave, because we've seen what
this Bucks organization has done before. They have elevated coordinators that they did not want to leave the building, and an offensive play caller, as my friend Dave Danishek says, is one of the most valuable things you can have in the NFL, and the Jaguars are absolutely acting like it. They're probably given Liam Cohen a big old contract. Maybe
Ben Johnson earned Liam Cohen some money. I will update this if something changes, but at this point I am expecting Liam Cohen to be the next head coach of the Jaguars, and it's just a shocking and fascinating turn of events that I really think is gonna shape these two division races because Todd Bowles has done a great job finding Dave Canalis and then finding Liam Cohen, and now it looks like he's gonna have to find another offensive coordinator to run his team in twenty twenty five.
Because the Jaguars, I don't know if they're gonna win on the field in twenty twenty five. But as low as their fans felt throughout this entire Balki saga, somehow he's out of the building and somehow they get a really exciting play caller in the building. They're feeling good and they at least have their first w of the twenty twenty five season. If theyn get Cohen to sign on the dotted line. Make sure he signs. All right, let's go to the rest of the show. Cynthia and
I picking some games. Welcome to NFL Daily. We're like Billy Bean, our stuff just doesn't work in the playoffs. Apparently. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in the Chris Westling podcast studio. Yep, not for the last time, but one of the last times this season to make our picks. Cynthia freedom same, I never know around here. Welcome Cynthia's conference championship weekend.
And that that start of the show that I'm referring to the general manager of the Oakland Athletics, longtime GM Billy Bean often said, and look we can I can give our our producer Chris a little extra work. He just would say, maybe just doesn't work in the playoffs, you know, because he would just get the a's to the playoffs and then it wouldn't come through. And my picks have been poor in the playoffs. I'll own it.
My one stay away last week was a win. That was the Bills, but I went o two and one because that Eagles game was a push. You got one and two. So let's let's rebound here. We got it last two games. We were great in the regular season, much like the Philadelphia Eagles. Let's start there. The line started the week at four and a half, got pretty quickly moved up to last week's line. So it's Eagles minus six, just like they were against the Rams. I
believe that was your stay away. That's why you did not have a push and but you were with me on the Eagles side. It could have gone either way.
I just I just didn't want to do the same one as you.
Jake Elliott, in those myths that points killed it. What do you think this week?
I think four was about right. I think four was about right.
I have the Eagles winning this one, but I don't think that they're going to do it by more than six points.
I think that's too rich for my blood.
Okay, maybe five, four or five. I think that four and a half line. I think it was priced correctly when it first came out.
They usually do. I know, that's why they they've got those big towers and.
Yeah, that's why you know rooms have super fancy rooms.
I although this year they've struggled because it's been a favorite heavy type of year. I let's just start at the end. I'm taking the Commanders.
Too, So you're taking the Commanders.
I don't need to on this show. I'm not really sure. I've gone back and forth. So we'll start the end and then we'll explain why we're making these picks. But at first I was thinking Eagles cover. Then I'm thinking Commanders win. Out right, I'm just all over the place because if it's a close game, I sort of trust the Commander's game management in their history those games, and their coaching staff a little more than Nick Sirianni in
that's a hothead. And when you just look at the pure talent and how they've gotten here, and the depth charts and the numbers, like I get why the Eagles could win this game by two scorees. So nothing would surprise me. And yet on this show, I don't have to make a straight up pick. I am just feeling like I'm taking the Commanders plus six. Now, why from a football angle, do you think four was around the right number?
Like?
What aspects do you think that are going to help the Commanders cover this spread?
Well, the first thing is is how Jaden Daniels has adapted to the Blitz news slash he's really good at it. That also works for some pressure metrics as well. The thing that to me does end up becoming the tipping point is as good as we've seen this Washington defense become. And they started off not good, and then they've gotten better and better and better as the season's gone on. I still don't think they have an answer to the dual headed threat, or I guess triple headed threat if
you want to think of it that way. That is this passing, running and then passing on the run offense.
That is the Eagle.
So I just it's nothing about the Jayden Daniels side of the ball. I think it's very intriguing. I think Terry McLaurin has been a very like underrated wide receiver for many I know he's a pro bowler now, but you know, I think, like we don't historically, this guy's done way better than perhaps his kind of accolades have
suggested until this point, with way worse quarterbacks. So interesting, and I just don't think though that I don't think Washington has enough stuff to stop aj Brown, DeVante Smith, Dallas Goddard, whatever the heck's sake, one Barkley's gonna do and then whoever they get to like do a trick play here there.
Right, Jalen Hurts and his mobility is a huge question mark. How much does that affect their run game? I thought he moved, It's okay, I thought he moved much better. Everyone was like.
Negative five billion and yeah, and.
The announcers were so hard on it that he's just not moving at at all. But when I flipped on the film after that injury, he moved the.
Yeah, do yourself a favor too.
Sometimes, like I go back when I feel like like sometimes the narrative on TV goes what I just listened to the Eagles radio broadcast.
It was a lot more I would say, fair, Okay, Well.
It's obviously it's obviously slanted towards the Eagles because all of the home radio broadcasts are. But in terms of the mobility, it kind of pouting out the same thing as you. Well, they're not calling something that really leverages all of Jalen Hurt's mobility. It was a bit of a potentially protective as opposed to trying to see what we got right.
They didn't know, but there was there was.
My Michigan accent is coming out.
I love it. I love your Michigan Sure, what does it say, Okamus Athletic Club. That's yeah.
This where I'm from. It's like like it says oaks.
Love it that This is why you got to check us out on YouTube. You got to check out Club with a K Cynthia's Numbers game on YouTube. And what you do when you get there, you don't just watch the videos you like. You subscribe to the channel.
Notification and you get a piece of paper and you write down all the things.
Yes it is, it is a podcast.
You mentioned. Jonathan Allen hasn't played against the Eagles in either of those matchups, and sometimes the name on the back of the jersey doesn't match the reputation. He was coming back from the injuries, and then I watched last week that was like real deal Jonathan Allen. That's like adding I'm not saying he's Jalen Carter, but it's adding a Pro Bowl level player to the mix.
Tell me in the back end, it's we're not getting healthy Marshall Lonemore where we're not.
She looked a little better last week, but.
It's still not that is still not Trusty Bram Weinstein.
I so we had him on NFL Daly.
And I have to listen to it and him work with him at ESPN.
My wife Emmica makes fun of me that I always go like I always trust whoever the last person is that I talked to about something, and there was something about Bram that has influenced my going back and forth. I mean the confidence that he has, the confidence that that team has the vibes. And it's so stupid to talk about vibes, but when you're talking about six points,
I feel a little better talking about vibes. He is the better quarterback in this game, obviously, I think the coaching staff on balance, I trust the Commanders actually a little bit in a closer spot. So if I'm trusting the coach, the quarterback and the and the coaches and the vibes a little more, I'm gonna take six points in this matchup. I kind of see. I can just see the Eagles being a team that have has their heart broken and not end up winning this game, or
at least sweating it out. I see Jalen Hurts holding onto the ball when they blitz. And one thing that's been interesting in this matchup the two times of the Commanders they actually haven't gotten pressure with four a little surprising. One thing I didn't hit in the preview was that the kind of the regular running game from the Commanders got going last week. That's gonna be a big deal. They were great early in the season, not so much late.
I think they're kind of playing better at the right time. And they just remind me of some of these six seeds, like over the course of history, like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers, who was another one. There was one in five was that the Steelers team I think was a sixth seed when they there's only been a couple yea. And they just they have so much belief And I just think the Eagles are potentially there for the taking, even though I've been on their side all season. If
you give me six points, I'm gonna take it. I don't have to pick the game straight up. You can watch game debut for that, don't I think I think you are hearing how I'm leaning.
I do I like I don't like it? Do you talk yourself into something? Those are my favorite modes, especially like the curtain back here. We will be on you know, filming in the middle of the show and pre show.
He'll be like, you know what, I'm taking the Eagles, and then it'll be like, screw it, I'm going with the Commanders. The vibes are so strong, it's so good. It's my favorite moment, Like, I love it. I love it.
Everything stupid, And it's stupid because I won't even be to enjoy the game because I'm gonna be real. I always kind of pull for the Eagles a little bit. They're just one of those teams I enjoy and I would be happy if they win, and yet I have a bad feeling about this game for them. Let's go to the other AFC Championship. One and a half is the number as we talk, it's gone back and forth between one and a half and two.
One and a half feels better. I saw some places it was one. Someplaces it was too, like one and a half is good. Two stinks because you could like two is annoying. Two happens. It happened last week. Noxious it happened last week, and the Bills uh won by that. Do you think the Bills can cover that one and a half.
I mean sure they can.
My problem in this one is, as we sit here right now, to me, this is a. This is a one point game.
And real exactly, so you're gonna you're gonna try to thread the needle. You're gonna try your projection model has a chiefs to win, but only by one.
Oh that's cowardly correct. Yeah, I actually wrote a cowardly model like that. That's what I try to like, what can I do to make this the most cowardly model ever?
But look, the.
Reality is is if there is no Christian Benford, if there is no Taylor.
Rat I think we're getting Benford. He's at practice. I don't know, you don't.
Know for sure, right so, but as we sit here right now, he's technically still in the concussion protocol.
And that is that is a massive deal.
Because losing two guys, yet losing two guys when you have this guy named Travis Kelsey, who if you look at the difference between when a defensive back covers him versus when a linebacker covers him in these Bills matchups, it's like, you know, one is like eight yards per catch, the other's like twelve yards. But like, come on, man, you're really gonna ask Terrell Bernard to handle that without everything behind him being good and as much as I
and I love Matt Malona b c alone. He's great, but I don't know if he's like he came back from injury and I it just doesn't feel like he's like the full strength Matt Milano beginning of like he doesn't.
And then this Chiefs team, they are getting healthier. I saw a report.
We're so healthy it's annoying. It's they're like the healthiest team in the NFL. You want to talk about luck, that's where they've gotten some luck.
Yeah, good, that's where they've gotten some luck.
But I will say the Bill's O line is better, and I will say that the quarterbacks are pretty evenly matched. So I'm I'm this is not a one point win. It's a cowardly pick.
But I'm joking. No, it is. Don't feel bad wait if I'm not bend either way for the point of this show, and it's why picking the numbers is different than picking the winners. Ultimately, a point and a half is enough for you and your model that in a game this even just take the one and a half. It doesn't have to be that much more complicated. Now, if I told you Benford and Rapp are out.
Then I then I think the Chiefs are Wow, it is the.
Difference because you know the combination, combination.
Does who who is going?
Look at what Xavier Worthy has done in recent weeks. Wow, they changed his average depth of target. They cut it more than in half. And the man is all about that yack lifestyle and that is where he could outrun. I'm not scared of him against DeMar Hamlet. I'm not scared of him against anyone in that second.
Douglas not the fastest guy, no, And if.
You can get something over Matmalano's head, life is tough. So when I'm looking at that, and then I factor in how healthy this defense is for the Chiefs, Like it's just hard.
But if Christian Benford's there, that is a difference maker.
Okay, for sure, we'll track the injury report, but like I said, Bedford, I believe is limited but is in the concussion protocol. Rap has not been seen at practice, which is not a great big deal. It is a big deal.
Although words well, Bernard cannot an entire offense stop.
We are taping this on Thursday afternoon, so keep anigh, check the injury report and keep that in mind. But for now, you're there I'm on the Bills.
I again, I'm gonna go ahead to be there, and I'll say this, I'd like to see the Bills.
I mean, I can make an argument that it'd be.
Fun to see achieves three pet That's cool, but come on, man, I did did preseason with the Bills. I've been a Bill's stand like that. Now my lines are out whatever, I'm gonna go with the Bills, like I want to see something new, you know, like that. It's not an anti Chief sentiment.
I like the Chiefs.
I love Patrick Mahomes is the best we'll see in our lifetime, probably you know, up close and personal.
And I felt for you. I mean I felt for me because I was pretty strong saying that not only were the Lions gonna win, that the Lions minus nine and a half was my favorite pick last week. I got a few mentions on that one, and to be I deserved them. I deserved him. That was very much the wrong side.
As a Lions fan, I can tell you that this is better than last year. Last year that was the worst. You're up at halftime in the NFC Championship game by like seventeen points and you come back and get gutted.
No, that's worse. So this one was at least like I deserved to lose.
There wasn't. It wasn't much mystery to it.
Now you would now, Jamiir Gibbs, that man was trying to win, but it was a lot of other things just weren't going right.
It was like a comedy of errors, if you will.
That defense was going to require them to score forty plus.
You can't turn the ball over two times, let alone five like.
But I apologize and maybe I'm over correcting here, but in terms of the Commanders, because I got it so wrong last week, we'll find out. I'm gonna go ahead and say it. Say I think this Bill's Chiefs game good football game.
Oh you know, if you like talking about cowardly takes.
That was the point.
That was it.
I am looking forward right now. As much as I'm excited about the NFC Championship game, I'm looking forward to that's gonna be great in the first half of this bill. If you could just transport me to the fourth quarter of Bill's Chiefs. I just know that that feeling is what you look for as a sports fan. Now, it's not one of my teams or anything, but I did have the Bills winning the Super Bowl this year, so I'm I am invested. But that's that's what you love,
and it's because of everything that built towards it. So I gave all the x's and o's, and we talked about the preview on Thursday's show, and Nick Wright was on the show, and Patrick and I broke down why we think it's gonna happen in certain ways, and I think the Bills are going to win this game. I do legitimately believe it. But one of the reasons why I'm so excited about that moment on Sunday afternoon is
the build up to this. I mean, the Chiefs are trying to be the greatest team in the history of football, and in their way is the team that, if they lose on Sunday, has a pretty strong argument as the greatest team to not make a Super Bowl in the five year window. Here's what the Bills have done leading into this game. It started in the year where they lost the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs. It continued obviously in that great shootout in the Divisional round in overtime.
They have won twelve point two games on average in the regular season over the last five years. That's amazing. They have averaged third place in point differential over the last five years. They have never been lower than fifth. That is the hardest thing to do in the NFL. You are top five and point differential for five straight years, you never drop below eleven wins for five straight years. You've been at thirteen since five straight years. And I
think all of that experience really does matter. Not that they're hungrier, but that sometimes it really is your time. And one of the reasons it's their time is I think they're built to beat this Chiefs team because like the Chiefs, they're so intelligent. They don't beat themselves. They don't make mistakes that they can out chief the chief And I think they can be diverse defensively, offensively, they
can do any sort of game plan. And then when it comes down to it, quarterbacks offense, Which quarterback is ultimately better right now? Who is playing better right now? Which offense is better right now? It is the Bills. This is actually the best Bills offense that they've had in terms of points score, in terms of efficiency. I know, you don't have the star power of Stefan Diggs. But being able to run the ball and be diverse and
change your game plan, it is the best offense. So this is the year that they are gonna do it. They're not going to be the worst the best team that hasn't made the super Bowl because they are going to make the super Bowl and they win it by three points. Great game, Bill's Chiefs thirty one, twenty eight. Let's go with that. That's it. Sorry, I just had the rant.
I love being here for this rant. This is incredible, Like I feel like I just like some people go to church on Sundays. I just went to church, oh man, and it was great.
You sounded you at points you almost I was like, I should let Cynthia in here. She I'm enjoying it or she's scared. I don't know by the intent.
I'm enjoying it. No, I'm completely enjoying it.
I'm I need more of these rants in my life, but I need them about like also teams like I like both of these obviously, but I would love I would log ran whenever I can.
It's like your your private life, all right, Cynthia, this is going to be a big day for your wedding plan taking steps one and two here.
Well that's one and two. I did one find the right person?
Okay. Two is like, you know, I've just been hanging out there. We're worried. We're worried about you and Kyle, but we are not worried about these games. They were going to be fantastic. Uh to review, we're both on the Commanders plus six and actually we're both on the Bills plus one and a half. But you say, keep an eye. If both guys in the secondary are out,
you're gonna flip it. So keep that in mind. We are going to keep track of that in the in terms of the records, although I have a feeling Bedford will be out there and then it won't be I hope.
So for Bills fans and Bills fans everywhere, I hope that they get yes.
Let's play that song, because look, Cynthia, when you're ranting, when I'm ranting, and the Bills are finally going back to the Super Bowl, don't be afraid of it. Eric Roberts, you know football is back.