MNF Recap & Cynthia's Super Computer

Mark is actually technically the only employee of Courts of Thunder. I'm I'm not artist, our artist. I am completely disconnected from that. I p I just I cannot do it well now it's we know where to when when football came? When football arrived, there is no more tennis podcast, but the Jessel Nickol Rosenthal Vanity Project is rolling right. You know you couldn't you couldn't just let it go. How to get your plugs in? Like, I'm not going to

say that. The Throwback Podcast an evergreen show dedicated to a study of alternative rock music of the nineteen nineties with me and my friend bobcast. Would you check out right now wherever you get your podcast, I wouldn't do that. You don't need to mention anyway, not just about the music. It's about friendship. Speaking of friends, got one right here. She is, I mean, she's a star. I mean we're lucky to have her. Let's just start there. Um and uh.

She is on many a program including Power Rankings on NFL Network, including Game Day Picks Live with Greg Roll. She is Cynthia Freeland. Welcome back to the Around the NFL podcast. He's glad to be here. Thanks for having me. Really going kind of with like the a s mr type of voice there. I mean I just felt like it matched the It really matched the like the song in the background. Ye, that's you. Totally nailed it. And that's a good sign for the rest of the show.

The reason I always use that drop for guests me and Ricky Shorthand it's called sausage fingers because it's a YouTube clip of a man with like road tun fingers, like shredding beautifully. Uh. And whenever we introduce a guest with the music, what how they explain the music? There's a little bit of a window into who they are. Like I remember when Kyle Brant was on the show, He's like, oh, yeah, this is from Silk Stockings Build

Red Shoe Diaries. I think it was. Actually, uh so that you see is more like this is a chill I feel like an eighties movie like Tequila Sunrise or something like that. Like it's you know, like a dramatic scene, like there's a big decision to be made and someone's contemplating it at the beach, and like, you know, definitely exactly less for montage where there's a lot of cleaning inside the head of the character turning point is on the way exactly. It's like just sitting it, like you know,

next to the lifeguard station, just maybe in eighties. So they were probably smoking a cigarette. But you know, and we also know from talking with Cynthia, we won't we don't need to get into this further that that particular their player, Yeah, with the rotun fingers would be very be fine with it. Well no, I mean, yeah, Cindy doesn't like a man with small fingers. That's a small hands is a it's a deal breaker if you're in the market for a Cynthia Freeland Um and Greg's eyes

light up. When I mentioned Red Shoe Diaries. He's like, which episode, which season is that? The David Duke Company years? Is it the app with matt le Blanc in it? Anyway, apparently I know a lot about that. Yeah, I was a teen boy in the nineties. I'll leave it there. Now. Why is Cynthia Freeland here. It's not to talk about little Hands, it's not to talk about soft poor, softcore pornography on Cinemax. It is to talk about the midpoint of the season, although you're welcome to talk about any

of those things. Um, we call it today's conversation Cindy's pretty hate machine. So listen to this little nine inch nail speaking intern rock As as you look into you have a machine that you use that compiles data. Um, you're very talented in this realm. And we want to know as we turned towards the second half of the season, which teams are about to rise up and grab playoff spots and who are some of the playoff position teams that are going to fall out? Is the machine going

to help us there? Yes, the model, that's all the answers. The player is like, like, I just want to know something. Do you think, like, what do you think that it like looks like do you think that like the machine tells me what to do? Is it like terminators? It come to a lot like like how do you think this works? Like how does this work? In your head?

I think at one point you did mention that it was in your bedroom, so I imagine there to be like remember during the Cold War when the USA and USSR would have dueling supercomputers to figure out who could I pictured that like the nineteen seventies supercomputer that takes up of your bedroom space? What does heat me in the winter? So that that helps me on? Comes out

of it? Like when when there's like a crazy pick six, just like upon your last visit, I think I actually requested and this was you know, pre Corona years ago, and I understand that you you know, we've all been distracted, but um for a photograph it looks like and I'm still waiting for that. I'll get it for you. I'm sorry, I told I told you it's literally like it's not

as it's gonna make Dan upset. I gotta like maybe you could draw, like I'll send it to you and you could draw rendition of it, because I don't want to upset Dan because it's not that like exciting. It looks like a like a but you don't want it shared. It would be secret information. Well it's like you can't see anything right, Like it's like a tower. It's a few towers. It's just the point of having the towers so you have more RAM, meaning it can go faster.

So then the models will take like a week to produce results. You run three thousand projections for each remaining games, every every you need a lot of RAM. It's just an excuse so that when it picks a game that like Cynthia doesn't totally agree with, she's like, oh, the model did it. I mean I programmed the model, so I have the brain of the computer. So it's it's really all my all. This just tries to make it so that's like, you know, not biased. So we're gonna

talk about Cindy's pretty hate machine. We're going to hit the Thursday Night football previews, we look ahead to week ten Baltimore at Miami. We're gonna hit Monday Night Football, the recap. But I just want to get one thing, one more thing. As we set the table for today's show, Um Mark apologies again with the situation with Chris Rose on Sunday. Was unfortunate that Greg and I brought it up,

Um that we thought that you were shaded up. We thought that you were being short with Chris about his Brown's excitement when he rolled over to our area and you said things like I don't think they're very good. And then you came on our show and you were like it so happy about the Browns. It was like, why didn't Chris get the same thing. It wasn't so much like the length, but the lack of enthusiasm, just like, I'm not gonna meet you where you are, Chris, Right,

you guys practice this before that show. You're a little and you're gonna and you're gonna say, oh, Dan, another manufactured joke. This isn't real. This is absolutely real. I've gotten to know Chris a little better this year during the season, and uh we exchange phone numbers at one point and actually got this voicemail, uh late last night. This is Doug Boat. You know the drill. It's Chris Rose from NFL Network. You're doing well, Neil. Little advice here.

The other day I walked past you and Cessler and and Greg, and I wanted to talk to Mark about the Browns, uh, and he just kind of blew me off. So I don't I don't know why he was short with me. I don't know if there's something going on, if he's piste off or what. I was hoping to then talk to him during the Sunday night game when we all watch together in the theater and he wasn't there, and you weren't there, and Greg with two cheese was the only one there, and I don't know why it's

two geese. But anyway, um, so I don't know if you could maybe call me back and shed a little light on this. I mean, Mark and I have been buddies, I thought for a few years. And it took like all the strength in the world to not walk past him and make fun of that really ridiculous cheesy mustache he was trying to grow out of. Oh wow, anyway, just get a chance to give me a call so we can talk it out, because, um, I really I'm kind of hurt by it all. Thanks. I mean again,

not not manufactured. That was a real voice mail sounds No, I mean, you know, friendships, Um, I have been friends with Chris rose for for a long while. At this point, well shared you know, shared interests. But friendships go through different phases, and I you know, there's challenging phases. There's like we have to grow, and maybe this is a point of growth for me. I'm not always going to argue,

uh you guys when you create these things. I like, in this case, I'm saying, like it maybe it was real. I am learning now that my I impact some people may be the wrong way at times, and you know, check yourself at the door. Cindy has someone like as an outsider on this, what's your take? I mean, I've been to a lot of therapy, so I thought his response was like just really like I mean marks just

like a big man. Like that's like a very smart, like very educated, very you know, like a lot of empathy, a lot of like emotional maturity. There will I put it into action. That's big. Where was the at the on Sunday night. I think it wasn't there. It was a lot of hitting now, it was a lot of pushing back. It is an interesting window though, you mean you talked about points of relationships that Chris and Dan are at the point where Chris is now leaving long

voice Why did you send him to voice mail? If you guys are so closed, that was taping Powerking. Yeah, it's the minute you get Dan involved, things become destabilized with friendship, the first part of the friendship. So just you gotta be aware of that. UM, all right, I'm I'm just caught in the middle as usual. All right, here we go. That's what's going on with that, and we'll keep you updated the listeners. Uh, if that could be repaired that relationship. I just would also like to

put out like Chris Rose and I really close. He like he like actually like tweeted a photo or you know, Instagram story to photo of me on Sunday, so I could. I'm gonna check up with him in two thousand twenty one. That is the greatest indicator of true friendship. Obviously, let's check out some Monday night football. Put a bow on Week nine, down long enough, Hi, Gordon pass Well, an incredible minded field has put the Steelers on top six seconds to go. Oh my goodness, are the Steelers good?

I'm really not sure, but they won the game. They did over the Bears, a Chicago Bears team. Cynthia Freeland that put up a fight that was in danger of getting blown out of that building early. But with their young quarterback who threw for yards in a touchdown in the second half, they battled and battled and battled, took the lead, and then there's Big Ben in the offense getting that last drive to score uh and win the game.

Where do you come down on Steelers? After watching this particular game, my first note is I never want to see Ben Roethlisberger run again, not ever. I was, I was like, wow, they're talking about that last designed run where he thought he was about to have his John ol a moment and kind of fight through that tackle, and he looked like like it was like like there was mud on the field suddenly, and he was so slow.

It was I was. I was shocked, And I can't image the force would take to make Big Ben helicopter. He's more like one of those giant aircraft carriers there. Just you're not going to spin him. No, no, anyway. Anyways, UM, I think we see a really interesting thing about the Chicago Bears offense, meaning I think Justin Fields is finally starting to take that step forward. It seemed like at least he could recognize zone defense a little bit better and was able to find and connect with his receivers

in zone, and that's hard to see. It's not easy when you got a man. A man is way easier for rookie quarterbacks to be able to pick up on zone defense a little trickier, there are bigger holes in it. But throwing your receiver open then becomes more important, which means justin Fields is now taking a step forward and recognizing the defense a little bit better. So that's interesting. Also, I think there were some really strange penalties in that game.

Was kind of my like overall overall, take away right the penalties, I'm sure we'll get to, but fields, even though they lost, felt like the biggest story, and I think he took a couple of lessons from his first also that like to run right into Devin Bush was like, why are you doing that? You don't want to do. But for the most part, his instinct the last two weeks, when the throws aren't there to run decisively have helped him out and they've picked up a lot of first

downs are picked up six or seven yards. His best two games of the season are easily the last two. I think he was nine for fifteen on throws over ten yards. His his deep throws were great, and he kept going for it from the pocket. Like if you're a Bears fan. It's almost the perfect situation according to the Bears fans I know, which is that they want Naggy gone, but they want Fields to be the truth, which is a hard thing to balance so that you

get the most of best. You got the best of both worlds here because their defense at the end of that game is what lost the game. Is total total coaching meltdown in that in that field gold drive, where the players were absolutely confused. The fields looks good, the coaching still bad. You get both, get both. I don't know if I trust Bears ownership to understand the divide

between Matt Nig's either helpfulness or lack of helpfulness. Um And what Justin Fields is is someone that's becoming, especially over the last two weeks, more comfortable, more daring do using his athleticism, his legs. And I thought last night ripping the ball a couple of times, getting Allen Robinson involved for the first time on that team in roughly two decades. I mean that would have been a touchdown

if Robinson also showed up. Jimmy Graham was there on the field, who knew the past came to the future. I think you have hope as a Bears fan, and it doesn't really matter the results of these games down the stretch. In fact, would be better if they lost a bunch of more games to clear house. Yeah, I think I don't know what Bears ownership. I think they

understand what's going on here. The Naggi is a guy that's on the ropes, and Bill Laser his having greater control of the play calling is now connecting to justin fields looking better and also, by the way, rookie quarterbacks just get better typically if they if they're the real deal as the season goes along. So I think that's what we're seeing that's exciting. Uh, there was some money throws by fields there. And on the Pittsburgh side of things, they're really a tough team to get a handle of.

You got t J. Watt and he's doing his t J. Watt thing, and you still have that, you still have that Hines Field home field advantage, and and that's a great thing too. But I just feel like this offense put it this way. I thought they were cooked after they lost the lead, I didn't think the offense was gonna be able to get it done. And I think Chicago's defense with all the errors and mental errors really bailed him out in a lot of ways. Um, they didn't know what coverages they were in it. Yeah, I

don't know, there's clear confusion. I think. I think the Steelers are a team because they're well coached and they have these big time players dotted throughout the roster. We'll get to the nine or ten wins that might get them into the playoffs. But I just don't see him as that kind of upper tier a f C team.

I do think though, like against Cleveland, and you know, we all saw the photos the film coming out of that at the offensive line, which was a dis astor early on meshed against Cleveland, and I think they continue to grow. And that's what you want to ride that, because it's not the offense has changed a little bit. It's a it's transformed. But I mean they're months away from needing a quarterback of their own right this big

Bend season. It's it's almost charming, like he's giving in his own I mean, I hate as a person, I've never like I've never been on what I'm trying to that sideline. He's not charming in fact, like he did the thing where he that Ben's laugh as we've you know, featured on this show over the years. Very like when they asked me, he's like, how are you feeling? You know when when you watched justin Fields going, he's like he's feeling a little nervous, and it's just like, who

are you out of person? But like he's giving it his all, like I saw. I don't want to steal the joke, but when when he threw that that deep shot to Deante Johnson and someone said it looked like, you know, I was trying to hit a three yard drive with an eight iron or something like he put his back into that throw and like we learned how far he and throw it at this point, which is about forty five yards, And like they're doing the best

they can't. I don't think their defense is quite good enough to make up for I mean, they had a chance to close out that game in the fourth quarter and they couldn't do it and they got bailed out. Uh to other names, Pat Friar muth I got a feeling Mark that guy's gonna annoy you for a while. I mean like seven to ten years. He annoyed me last week and he continues investment in that draft pick. And Cassius Marsh, I'm sorry, dude, I am so sorry. And you look badass in the press conference, and kudos

to you for looking the way that you do. But like, come on, and this is a big story right now. Everyone's talking speaking out on it. Mike Tomlin even like got out there and said, hey, we're just trying to clean the game up. He said, he's a member of the competition committee. We embrace the responsibility that comes with being the role models that we are. Well, I don't know, Mike, if it happened the other one, the shoe was on the other foot. I don't know if you're making that

quote today. That was a BS call on Marsh and the way the official kind of backed into him through the flag are we doing? And he said he felt it was taunting any time that the official has to use the words. I felt that it's using so much subjectivity. We've seen the NFL course correct on some of these rules emphasis um points midway through seasons before they don't

announce it publicly. But suddenly remember the other season when they just stopped calling holding after every right, and there's been a couple of ones like this with the catch rule. I think it's time. I was hoping as I was watching that that maybe this will be the moment where they're like, let's back off the taunting. It needs to happen in these primes. And he called it a point

was it's a point of emphathy. It's it was a great football moment that you know, he that the practice and the off season there, he was there on their preseason, so he so in a sense that like goes to Carenti's point that he felt like it was something because in a way it was. He just was looking over at the other sideline, but like it's an emotional game. That was a beautiful moment, like you cut me, I

just made this play. It would be nice if the ESPN booth, who had another rough night like had that and could provide that context to the listener because none of us knew it, were knowing that at the time. Um, but like that happened. That's why you listen to the radio, really great radio called on that. You just watch it and you time it up. Hit pause. It's great. I didn't let me say this, but you brought it up. Ready.

When it's six, after the Bears touchdown to tie it and the Steelers go offside on the extra point and Greasy starts saying out loud, maybe we'll go for two here, bro, it's I mean, I think he checked himself after, but I mean the Steve Levy called where he made the whole country think it went off the crossbar, and I've heard people go like, well, it looked like it. But he's in the stadium. That's the advantage of being in the stadium. Don't watch the monitor. They're they're killing me.

They're killing That's why I gotta listen to the radio. And my last thing. In the NBA, for instance, and like the playoffs, the referees put the whistle in their pocket unless they really have to call you. Let the players figure out these big moments. On a third down sack where you're getting off the field in a close game, oh my god, you gotta look the other way. All right, there we go Monday night football. By the way, I

have to give cash this smart some credit. They kept that camera on him and he did not like I thought he was gonna cry for a minute, and then he pulled it together and like really like you saw him like dig pretty deep there to find some composure. So I don't know, I like that story. Like if I made a practice squad and then I made it like a crazy insane play and then I looked at

them and do I probably would have cried. So his coach ripped them up as and then he came back and apologizing because he was like, oh, yeah, that was nice anyway, but yeah, no, I appreciated that like a moment of like grace. And he said. People say, well, at least it didn't like change how it totally changed. It would have been a total different if the amount and that's what I wish people would have talked about more. You talked about analytics, the analytics of the time on

that are you totally change the difference? How much time would have been left for then you know the Bears who showed that they could score very quickly, they would have had another drive, not just that with the time analytics. That's all right, let's pause right here for a break. We'll be right back. Cynthia Freelan screaming time for her pretty hate machine. It's in her room. I see it as a giant Cold War supercomputer. I don't need to

hear anything else. And that's you know, when we're thinking about okay, first half of the season virtually it's over. Now we look ahead. Let's talk about it, greg Mark. Throughout you could throw out some teams that you feel one way or the other about, whether about surge or fall off. But I'd like to start with Cynthia. When you ran it through your model, Um, were there any teams that really jumped out to you that are going win way or the other. Let's start. We'll start where

we want. Well, I think ahead of the season, I think we were all, I mean, look a little shocked. The Patriots, no one to know what to do with fringe potentially, you know, maybe make the and now it's gonna be very hard for them not to make the playoffs. And the a f C is a very much better conference. Just that, you know, the middle of the a f C is stronger than the NFC. The guys at the top or GRAE and then the ones at the bottom are the Lions. So ultimately the differential between the two

is very big. You know, take out the Jags and take out It's gonna be hard to get that seven six. It's gonna be hard to get six and seven in the a f C than it is going to be in the NFC. And it's interesting. And then the other one that's like really quite interesting to me is you know, I don't know. When I looked ahead of the season, I really I would I was very I thought that the Colts would be stronger, and I think we're going to see them push up higher. I think they had

an unfortunate beginning to the season. Injuries plagued them, and I do think that they're going to end up making a Do you have wind totals? Projected wind totals? All right? What are the called in the paths? Former rivals? Okay, so well, I got an article coming out later on this, So well, we can embargo the show until it's yeah, embargo tell you that we're going to the best possible right now, Patriots have a chance making the playoffs, which,

by the way, I'm pretty conservative. You know that guy do Greg knows like some of these wind projection models get like wild and that's just not the case, right, So, um, and that means they're most likely going to be either. So it's nine point seven, which is like, obviously it's a model, so it's never going to be perfectly the number. Okay, very mad about exactly. People get really mad about fractional games.

But you have to remember my point here that the a f C, the middle of the a f C stronger. The point seven matters, right, So you just to look at the order more than you at the colts. So I've got colds here, and I guess, yeah, of course you have the cold at They got a hold of a dig out of here. I think you've got the cults at nine point three. Anyone else. You pitched them as sort of spicy a minute ago. So I'm gonna go nine point six. You got it. It's pretty good, Mark,

I'm your computer. One. He wins nine point six. All right. Remember remember these are very these are small, and it's based on the schedule, correct, and remember they also have the advantage of playing you know, they have a division that's pretty that's pretty um, but that makes sense. So they're gonna win nine or ten games. The Pats are. They feel like a ten and seven team right now. I'd like that. How about the other side, so those and way the way the ANC is set up. It's

so wild right now, it's so out of control. It feels so fluid that I do think I think a nine and eight can get you in. There's basically twelve teams if you eliminate the Jets Jags, which just remember, just remember they have the Colts, have the Jags twice. Still one more Textans. So there's three games right there. That's a the Steelers struggle. If you look at their schedule after this Lions. Yeah, the Steelers, at least in Vegas,

they probably would be underdogs for their last eight games. Yeah, I only have them favored against the Vikings. It's very close. That's the last one. We're they're close. Like the Jaguars Buffalo outcome is a perfect example. The FC seems so strange right now that looking at a schedules, going this is gonna work, this is gonna work, This won't work. It just feels like it's a fool's air. And that's why you need the machine to step in and give a little more data. Give me here. I'm going to

make you an analogy of what the machine does. Right. It's bad English, So you guys who actually know grammar like this is not the right English, but like there's overwhelmed and there's underwhelmed. Like all I'm trying to figure out is what that line is, Like what's welmed? Right? So like you can say, Okay, I think it's more than that or less than that? Overpaid and underpaid? Well, what's paid? God? I have can I ask the NFC team? Yeah, because like I wanted this, let's guess the number two,

Let's keep doing that. Yeah, And I want to know the process because like a team like the Saints that I think it's been kind of battling our expectations. Strange, very strange, and very strange you do with your with the supercomputer when like let's say, so Jamis goes down, you're dealing with Trevor Simeon. You're getting a little bit of Taysom Hill in there. The defense is rising, Like I trust them to be really well coached, Like where

do you see him winding up? And how do you how does your process change when like chaos occurs to human beings. The good news about the Saints is that despite being chaotic you mentioned it, the coach is very like Sean Payton is one of my favorite to track because he's got he's very um reliably aggressive or non aggressive. It's he's situationally very He's a very consistent human being over time. He doesn't change his coaching strategy very often.

You see it, you kind of know when you're watching you can feel, oh, this is a taste. He is always is the same. You get like a great or a number from you that you plug in, Like how do you see? I just like consistency, like be who you are, then I can model you easier just from Jamis downward to Simeon or how does that work? Yeah, Like, look,

we have a lot of Simion data. Though it's not like I'm going from uh, Mike White exactly from Mike White to Josh anyways anyway, so it doesn't even matter there, But so we do have that. One's not the hardest one to shoot this season so far, especially with a good defense and their defensive state very consistent year every

year in terms of who the players are. When you have a lot of turnover, it makes it more difficult for the for the I'm gonna guess, I'll guess ten point one because I doing game debut with you every week. I know which teams the model, which is often but not always uh, teams that Vegas loves and to that point, like the Saints are barely an underdog. Let's talk about Tennessee this weekend against Simeon. So I'm going high and I'm going ten point ten point two to get closer.

I told you how there's the ones that have like that. They don't ever land on the normal number. It's ten prices rules. You can't say the Let's be clear, it's good when I give my numbers before Vegas gives there. So I'm not trying to get My point is is it is good, but it's good. Vegas is way better at my job than me, and we do similar say that allowed though that's like no. But my point is is when the things end up the same, people on

Twitter like, oh, you just copying the Vegas number two. No, No, your girls getting good at this because she's better, then they're better than be at it for longer. So I want to honk about being right about the Cardinals all year, because you've had them as one of the very best teams in the NFL from week one. It's probably why you're leading our picks competition. On game debut. More than anything, it's just it's just getting the Cardinals right. And do

you have do you have them continuing to be this good? Um? Yes, but they're not my super Bowl team from They're not. Why do you think the models like the Cardinals so much? Right about them? Um? Well, I had them as a risky team. Either I was going to be very very They're either be very good or go very poorly because they were expanding their playbook in such a way where, if you know, everyone talked about Kyler Murray has the

execute this, this and this. Well they got a little bit lucky with some Raiders exodus from their old line, getting Rodney Hudson there in the last minute, because that was it's really interior pressure that makes a lot, huge difference for Kyler Murray. Now does Coult McCoy help out with this? Oh, it makes it way harder. But I do have a number of cold data points to refer to, but interior pressure and also no, I love Colt McCoy two but na so after McCoy, which is perfect, baby pony,

I love it, um so. But but long story short of like you know, like after they stopped rolling out, only that like basically the bootleg where he goes off to his right and spins all the way around. Like once they added more to the playbook, I'm like, well if he if they can keep the interior pressure from being too, which is why you see the difference when Hudson's playing when he's not very big difference for him.

And also they got him a bunch more playmakers. I mean A. J. Green obviously hasn't played in a couple of games, but when he's out there, it creates a lot more space for DeAndre Hopkins when he's healthy, and Christian Kirk has been the beneficiary of that. And now they've got zach Ertz. And you know when J. J. Watt was healthy for the two minutes, he was helpful to them. So you know they and I love their

the way that they create space with their safeties. I love Buddha Baker, I will I'm a like unapologetic Buddha Baker Buddha Baker Lever and Isaiah Simmons is taken a big step forward too, So you know they're only it all fit. You're a super Bowl team though they're not. I hate my super Bowl team. I'm gonna throw oh that's interesting. I'm gonna throw another volatile team in the a f C out there, a team that I'm trying to make sense of. A lot has happened around this

team this year. They've been up. They've been theirsters on what I can see, Yeah, um yeah, imposters. So they've gotten exceptionally lucky because for their first few games, like the first eight games at they played, they've got an overt pressure percentage against opposing quarterbacks. If you have sustained pressure for that long, then you're absolutely going to do some damage. And congratulations Max Crosby. That like extra X,

it really works out for you. But the problem is is they have on the other side, they don't have a very reliable running execution, even and I mean that with like short passes to screen passes. Most coaches consider those running you know, running downs for kind of the way that they think it through. They don't have consistency there, and you know they don't. I like Derek Carts, absolutely nothing against him, but when you don't have an old line, it is hard to an old line that consistently can

keep you from harm's way. It just it's hard to have long term, sustained wins like they're just like Vegas, high risk, high reward, but it could go terribly wrong as well. I see them as nine and eight, but I think your model is going to have them at eight point four. It's it's closer, it is undernine, it is underneath. But remember again big but because there's five and three, so somewhere in the eights is that's another

nothing nothing short of. But they've got the next three Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys, and then I have a win for Washington. The Chiefs, Brown's, Broncos, Colds, Chargers, like the rest of their schedule is not very nice to them. We'll get to it Thursday. But to me, this Chief's Raiders game is is fascinating. This super fascinating, especially because they payed. I have a quick one um and we'll keep it brief. The Lions, aren't you about them? That's your team, but they're not my team. I hate them.

They're my team to hate emotionally, which I appreciate you hash like as like zero point to like are they hovering towards that? Oh in seventeen season the first time I mean to give him a w they got to be h two point three. The model had them beating the Eagles a couple of weeks ago. Do you know how mad I was about that? I hated it? They were they could run up for like five sis. That's why you're so mad at it? Is your computer does a great disobedient at times, and like, is it rebellion

against you on some level? So Mark wants to know how do you punish the computer when it becomes disobediently? The funny part, right, Like the funny part here is it's all actually like I name it after like I'll put in random things, like some years it'll be like random eighties rockers, other years it'll be and it's all named things that I can't so I can't look at

it because I have to make some corrections. They'll be errors in the code, and I don't want to know because I do like certain teams more than other teams, like teams that give me a paycheck. I did the preseason with the Bills. You're darn right. I like them better than I like the Jets. I like them better than other teams like, so I don't want to be biased in any way possible. So it's all you can

name them. Next year, I'll let you name, and it just randomly assigned to be part of the process on the perfect Yes, so when you when you have it, do it like anonymously and you have to do these air fixes and you're not like fixing, you know, because sometimes the reason that my model is like valuable more than like just random numbers is like I'll ask coaches for real context, so I'll be like, what happened here.

I'd be like the safety was in the wrong spot, or the quarterback didn't see you do didn't pick up, or the running back didn't pick up the blitz or something great. So you can put in something there with like real people, who's who duty? And then like when my PhD people from when this is why you like, I still paying for my my master's degree right because you know I won't want I took out loans and too, because then I can go back and be like these

PhD people who don't care about football. They can be like, your math's wrong here, fix it here, so it gets better every week, But what what do you got? The Lions at one point four okay, jerks that well, you're a celebration. When they get that second congratulations, they are officially not great quarterbacks in this upcoming draft class, and the Lions will continue to be terrible. Could I could have had a lot? Let's not pile on all right, we only have a few more minutes with you, Cynthia.

They can deserve it. There's that kneecaps to bite. And by the way, when I was there for so first Bill's preseason game was at Ford Field, and like I was happy because Ford fields a great field and I'm from Michigan in the summer, in Michigan's great. Like an hour before the game started, all of a sudden, you see like this coach like throw fit. He takes his heads and throws it off on the Lion side that he goes storming off the field, and like I walk over,

like what happen? Oh, they fired their strength and conditioning coach um like ninety minutes before the game, and I was like, why this is first preseason game. And then I was like that's weird. So I'm like googling it and whatever, and I'm not reporting because I'm on the Bill side, and no one cares. And then they play their starters against the bill third string until the fourth quarter, I kid you not, and they lost what they were

going to be a great season. Guys. All right, okay, before you go, you said you don't like your super Bowl pick. So before Cynthia tells us who it is with that information of mine, let's take a guess the model. It is easy. Guess. All right, I'm gonna say the Packers. What about you? Greg Um? You don't you're seeing both? No, I like my I like my acis. That's was just a guess. I'm gonna say that the Bucks. You don't. I like the Box. I love Todd Bowls. You know

that don't like Um. I think Packers is very strong, But just for the sake of variety, I'll go Rams. Um, it's it's the Packers. What nothing to do? Like, I'm mad that like my preseason or my my preseason said Packers Chiefs, and now mid season it's Packers Bills. And I'm so you because the Chiefs and Bills that partly

because they're gonna get the one seat. Sorry. Well, before last week it wasn't going to be the Packers, and then the Rams lost, and then like some weird stuff happened last week, and then of course the week before the Saints beat the Bucks. So I was like, come on, give me something that I like. So this like Chiefs Bills, everybody's grouping them together about how the defenses are are strategizing and slowing down the attack. I guess the model says Brian Dable and the Bills are going to figure

this out and get back on track. Otherwise how they're going to get to the big dance. I mean, I'm concerned about it when I watched that game on Sunday in the last few weeks with this reason. Absolutely, it's really come down to pressure on the quarterback. That's what happened in the Pittsburgh game. That's what happened in this last game against the Jags. Early pressure. So what Brian Dables on He almost didn't run the ball at all in the first half. I think two runs like that's it.

Like Josh Allen scrambled a few times, but those aren't running running designed runs in any way, right, So it's interesting. I'm curious to see, like what's going out with the running backs because it's gonna be it's really going to

come down to you for this team. Can they keep Josh Allen from getting pressured especially early in the game, because we've seen a few slow starts for the Bill, So if they don't have like the if they can't get it going right away, then it's going to be difficult for them to to kind of pick up the pace at the end because of that pressure. So it's really comes down to offensive pressure. Now we don't have models,

but but you can see. We were asked editor we are on Monday to send in our new predictions for the season. So I wanted to check in with with you guys to see did you actually send senda. I know Dan busy on Mondays. I made time on Monday and did it nice? Did you What did you guys go with as your Super Bowl? So I so my my move here number one is like it's I didn't put it through a model. I kind of said, I want to do something that I don't think anyone else

will do. I like it and it will get you know, that's how you had That's how you have the Dolphins winning the a f C East going into the clearly not a model there. But I have the Cardinals, which feels secure, feels like I'm observing the sport on some levels over the Patriots, who I think are going to something like it's super spicy, but it's really just to get that. I decided it was it's too late to bacca. I think it's a cowards move to change your pick.

So even though I think the Chiefs are all sorts of issues, I didn't bail. I picked them before the season. I'm sticking with the Chiefs to figure this out and it becomes a big story. They beat the Packers a right. See. I only change it if it's totally necessary. But then this is the first time I've changed the Super Bowl pick. But I changed, you know, two of the playoffs. I had to take the Dolphins out of the playoffs. I

had the Bucks Bucks over the Ravens. I mean, Greg and I had both had the forty nine we had. We should publish that, know, But you happy I kept I kept my ten of the twelve playoff teams. I removed the forty Niners and Dolphins through in the Chargers in the guess what, mark else? I still love the Browns in the playoffs, just like I did in August. I Oh, I put the Browns in now too, So I guess that's who I put in for the Dolphins. Well, some of us had it from the jumb Come on.

I wish I wish I could do like like split my personality because like my gut versus like sometimes I look at these and I'm like, I don't want to make that pick, but like I it's my own head whatever is like and sometimes it sometimes just right and sometimes it lets me down right like it's sometimes I did not want to pick the Panthers last week, but my model said it because they had they had some you know, they have some positive indicators when Christian mcaffrey's

on the field there. I didn't like that when you did that. Bill Belichick ruins everything when when you ran, you put they put this little graphic up on game debut when she does the Survivor picks three hundred thousand simulations a lot, and uh, the Panthers were somehow like going to be the better machine first and Greg is just a man and like you're going machine verse. Greg's look, sometimes you've gotta go with it. They've neither one's right.

You know you got And this week has like some of the most upsets we've seen in like this season. Actually two weird things like away teams are winning more often than tip like a normal season and you know, in terms of those Vegas odds or whatever we're allowed to say or not. I don't whatever that Okay, whatever Vegas thought. There's been way more upsets of like you've seen a lot of like the line get totally blown up,

like further from the standard deviation. That's probably an off limits word just because it's bad, um than than normal to right, Like we just don't know what it means. Yeah, the math dog is getting a little above above the old sea line now. But you've said it all, all of it. You check check her out on Game Day View another film Network on Friday's Power Rankings Game Day Morning on Sunday, is you name the show Fantasy Live quite a bit, and I feel like my hourly rates

like probably under minimum wage. Now put that in the machine and then send it upstairs. All right, Santhia Freeland, thank you very much. Goes all right, stay right here, we're gonna take a break. We'll be right back out, goes one queen of around the NFL, and in comes another. I don't even think we need to stop down. We just don't we to show our professionalism and tap dance until Colleen Wolf comes on. Then they're would be a great time storming through the door, leaves a dent in

a wooden wall. Oh, it's not it's not Colleen's music. It's Frianka, miss Jonas, Miss Jonas. Brother. What Connie, there's your headset? Yeah you know Colleen. Oh my god, high just recorded the Split Ends podcast with Erica Tamposy. That out the latest episode, and now we're gonna welcome you. And how are you? By the way, I'm great. This chair is very high. Well, but I think it's just because I'm short, so my legs aren't touching the ground.

They're just swinging around like uh, you know, the dummy thing. But you're no dumb and you are the Thursday Night the face of Thursday night football coverage on NFL Network. And we're gonna talk a little Thursday night football right now. Connie Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins. So you get to go out to Miami. That's good, Miami, Miami. Oh yeah, tell us about this game? Is you you do your

tireless research? What are you feeling about this? Just like, after doing all of this research, I'm just so psyched out of my mind to see Justin Tucker in person. I can't wait because you replaced Cynthia Freeland, who's like putting two thousand million reems of data into a computer to reach day. So I know your research dream. But yeah, watching Justin Tucker warm up, I've done that before. That's that's a show in itself. See him drill it from Have you ever in your time on TNF had a kicker?

Come on? If there? This is the greatest kicker of all time. The problem that we have here is that the Dolphins stink and Tua might not be playing. So the chances that it comes down to a Tucker kick are slim, but not nil because primetime games are weird, especially Thursday night games. But can you get in the ear of the producers if it does come down to it, Tucker is He's a well spoken guy, He's got some chrismas an opera sy there's pop. Let's go after Justin

Tucker if we can. You know, I was thinking about this during the Seahawks Rams Thursday night game when we had the double punt, and I was like, why don't we get why? What is it? Michael Badgeley, I don't know the money? Yeah, So I was like, why don't we get him on the days like that would be fantastic. We did not. We got Matthews. You've pitched the money badger. I feel like it's going to be the girl that

cries wolf. When we go to go to them with the kicker again, they're gonna be like, well, Colleen, that's got serious. Like the other burly football men on that set, are they not going to respect a kicker? Is that the issue? The kickers are people too? I think I think even like the real burly football men respect Justin Tucker though, because I think everyone realizes he's plus. If you can get Lamar and they win, then that's that's

who you want. But it could be a game winning kick because that's the kind of games the Ravens play for for uh, fourth quarter comebacks for them for game I know, I hear you. But their last second wins are against two the Chiefs. Of course, they're good to the Lions, the Colts, you know, and the Vikings not exactly a murderers row of teams that they had to you know, come from behind to be. They're always in

a second half deficit too. It just feels like they're slow starts are so thing that they need to change, and I don't know, I don't know how they fix that, but this team is super resilient and Lamar Jackson he's able to do it with his arm. He's able to do it on the ground, and we saw it again

against the Vikings when they were down by fourteen. But Hollywood Brown, he's also having a breakout season, has six touchdowns already this year, and I just feel like it says a lot about this team that they're able to win the games that they've won in the way that they've done it with all of the injuries that they've

had this season. Well, here's the thing with the Ravens, because when people like Cynthia with the with their data machines and then you look at things like d v O A and all that stuff is good and it shows it spits out numbers that say the Ravens aren't actually that good, and it kind of annoys me because it doesn't factor into me Lamar Jackson and why he's just a cheat code for their offense beIN the ultimate fixer he is, and I see it week after week and the way he just kind of got them back

into that game against the Vikings, a game that it felt like they were in a lot of trouble. They got back into the game before halftime and then give up a ninety seven yard kickoff return. But they keep fighting. They keep fighting, and they're just a team that I think just finds a way. I know that's not analytical, but they just are. That's who the Ravens are under John Harvit. That is when you have someone like Lamar Jackson, like it's going to defy numbers and all our beloved

dev o A data and everything else. They're a team that piled up thirty six first downs in that Vikings game. In the NFL record is forty. I mean, they just and I think the one thing about Lamar Jackson's the fumbles have been there, there have been some mistakes, but he always it doesn't shake him at all. Like I think last year you saw the Ravens offense become a little chaotic to the point where Hollywood Brown and Lamar

were squawking publicly. It's all gone away because he is I think Lamar Jackson able to overcome personal errors and and like an offense that's largely like missing guys all over there. But they they have weapons now that that that is the strength of their team is their passing attack and the depth of their passing attack. Brown is a true one right now. Sammy Watkins might come back for this game. Andrews is a Pro Bowl tight end.

Rashad Bateman's coming and immediately been a pro made like tough catches where he's like the number two type of chain mover. Duverney is kind of a fun number four who who makes plays too. So it's like suddenly, that's that's the strength. And they built this offense this off season to beat all the zone coverages that he goes against, and so that's where the ball keeps going. And they're not beating zone coverages like Kirk Cousins does with the dumpops.

They're beating it over the linebackers and ahead of the cornerbacks and so everything is fifteen to twenty yards up the field. And I I find this matchup interesting if only because the Dolphins are I think number two in terms of blitzing this year, like the number two most blitz heavy team, which goes against what you normally would want to do against Lamar Jackson because you gotta play man coverage if you do that, and then he just runs all over you. So do you dare Lamar to

run and just keep blitzing like crazy? His numbers, for what it's worth against the blitzers are not good. So if I'm the Dolphins, and if I'm the Ravens, who are another one of the most heavy blitz heavy teams, like I just blitzplit splits and then your Dolphins just see what happens. It might go terribly and he might run for two hundred yards, but I'd rather that than him throwing over the top all game. And the Dolphins defense, they really haven't faced a ton of mobile quarterbacks outside

of Josh Allen who crushed them. So I think it'll be interesting to see how Lamar Jackson does against them. This is an important game, I think for Brian Flores, it's a island game. A lot of eyes on it, and you know, ownerships mulling what they want to do next. As an organization. What are the guy in the Ravens wanted to point out anybody else notice a little bit of juice in Devonte Freeman, a little bit like so

there's just a lot of pieces on that offense. They had five hundred yards on the nose against the Vikings that I think is just gonna overwhelm Miami, Miami. Well that was awesome. But Connie, the good thing about the game that you cover every week is Thursday Night is weird as hell. I love it, and you don't know how it's actually going to play out. So justin Tucker needing to kick a long field goal and getting up on the days in play, please pitch it if it happens.

By the way, I saw that someone screenshotted on their timeline that you and I both had the same Mike White reaction seconds apart, milliseconds apart. I was so upset that they took him. They took him. Yeah, I predicted that though you did. Sorry, Yeah, I'm sorry that that came true. All right, Connie, anything else you want at? How's everything else? Hey? Everything's going great of you and your husband on the Old Graham. Yes, we went to a wedding. It was super fun. It was an Anaheim.

We stayed what are weddings like, Anna, I haven't been to a wedding so long, Annaheim. It was so much fun because it was a big wedding too. And when we you know, normally when you sit down the reception opens up after cocktail hour and it's just some nice jazzy dinner. He's like, no, no, no, this was like a Greek club all night, from start to finish. It was really fun. Greek Persian our friends. If you can get yourself to a Greek wedding, you should do it.

Do you predict success for the couple? I mean being real, like they're not going to hear this. No, I love them, They're great together, good people. The wedding party, No, but I should have been. I was in the wedding party of it. No, not really like I mean just because we are teople brought it. We were the we were the fun table. The ceremonies different than most weddings. Somebody walking in a circle around, there were stuff going on. There were crowns with ribbons where the three things it

is the music. Yeah, and they do this thing where they're like, I think the Persian side. I had never been to a Persian wedding before, and they were like no, no, no, no, no no no no no, they'd make that. Haven't been to one of those yet? That sounds ess sounds good. What percentage would you say, um, John looking good at a wedding is like the reason that you married him. Wow, So there's because he does. Yeah, hepend lot of baggage too. That I'm kidding. He has many reasons why I married him,

but that, yes, is one of them. You think John's hot? I think I was just going off of her comment on the thing, just like look how nice my well scale did find him? Greg? Yeah? What is his number? Like, I'm not going to give him a number. If he was coach, where would you slot him in? That's your guys, I have my number. I won't share it because there's almost it's like a no win situation. There's high on I would put it. I would say it'd be alarming.

I'm just saying like, yeah, he's bringing a lot to the table. But there's you know, he was at Johnson and Johnson guy, Like there's some negative too, So were you though? Right? That's and I haven't been You want to grade the three of us before you say goodbye? Do you want to keep that to myself? But you're

all you have in your head? Like just when I said, I've never thought about it before, so I would rather not like you've never even thought not even we don't even occur in anyone say that because my three brothers, you know what's funny, and you're a sister, as you're a little sister. I sometimes say it to my wife too, you know you're married for a long time. I was like, do you still see me as a man? Am I a man? To you? Still? Like? Where where are we

talking to her? Wow? Sometimes sometimes you have that conversation then Greg goes, wow, nothing ever unfortunately happens in mind. That's I just it's a funny. Yeah. I feel like a tease when it's like, hey, let's get back on the track in terms of being a uh we fell in love as a couple, Let's go on a date, let's have some fun together. Let's you know, it's tough. When I've come to the I am um, it's not

even a conclusion. It feels factual that my significant other is severely annoyed with me generally, right, I've I've long assumed that no woman ever looks at me like that or as a man. And if you ever find out the opposite, like what a nice pleasant surprise that here's a perfect example that sometimes it gets on my radar with my wife, like if I go and I have. Let's say, right now, I have a grizzly beard. I'm trying to grow in if if what I'll always do when it's time to shave it, I will keep I

will shave the beard and keep a mustache. Right, and then I'll start walking around the house and I look like Don Mattingly and she doesn't notice, and I'm like, whoa, whoa, that's concerning. Yeah, she's she's gonna play this back for it and she's gonna tell me she's tuned out. All right. It will be the second time she listens to the show. But straight tens though you three thank you dime pieces. We got three dimes in the studio. Yeah, Erica, another ten?

Thank you? Um do you want to get a Split Ends plug in? We had a very special guest on this morning, and I think everyone's going to really enjoy this episode. O good. So wherever you get your podcast, check out the Split Ends podcast and Connie Fox, the Tiny Box, the Platonic Friend, the Little Sister Scribe is right added to it. Um, have fun to my Miami, justin Tucker, Let's make it happen. Let's will it into existence.

All right, that's it. Dan has a signing off for Cynthia Freeland, the pretty hate Machine, the old boss quiet Storm. That's good nickname, Cythia, and of course that was not addicted. Uh, he's the call. Sorry, Colleen's looking su confused. H