Man vs Model Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Welcome to NFL Daily, where it's always raining.

I'm Greg Rosenthal here in Studio.

Five, Stage five, I don't know what you call it at NFL Network, and so lucky today to be joined by Cynthia Freeland for our weekly man versus Machine, Man versus Model, the rain Maker rains Oh of the week, Adam, I like all of it. Let's review Cynthia. Last week. If you were listening, we were both very effective, two and one each of us. Okay, I got the Bucks and the Steelers right, barely.

Lost on the bills by like half a point.

You got the Saints and your Lions right, and you lost on your jets. And so what we do every week on this show we pick our three favorite picks of the week.

Why don't we start with you this week?

To feel a little luckier? I have a question, Yes, this is a really important one. Yes. Are we allowed to do this for totals? Because I think there's one mispriced.

Okay, you can do anything you want, Cynthia. The point is I'm rooting for you. I want us both to have good records. I want to just have a better record than you. Open right now we're tied, So yes, we're tied to and one with that good start, Yeah, you can do totals.

Okay, So I'm looking at this Pittsburgh game and I understand it doesn't seem like there's gonna be a lot of points scored. But any way you slice it, for me, it's going to be more than thirty six and a half. In fact, in the model, in the machine, if you will, the number is more than thirty seven points in like something like fifty six percent of simulations. I'm a conservative modeler. That is a high number for me. So I know it doesn't seem like a situation where you'd be like, hey,

Yes, I actually picked eighteen to twelve in that game, and in my head that was all field goals six for the Steelers for the Broncos.

There could easily be a defensive touch.

You could throw that in. But that makes sense.

Why would you will root against fun?

I'm not rooty against it. That's just what I see. I'm on the Steelers this year. I had them as an under, but that is not one of my three picks. But I do think I do think they're gonna win. No lots of point. It is not lots of point. Thirty six and a half over that your first pick over thirty six and a half in Steelers Falcons.

I like that.

I'm going to go Titans plus four to start. If I'm going to pick them straight up, which I am doing. We did that on our on our show on NFL Network, which people should check out that's up on Sunday mornings before game day morning.

I might as well take them plus four.

It's as if one never happened here at least, I think that's what this number looks like to me what I saw from week one in the Titans, and tell me if you disagree. Cynthia was a reborn running game. The two Callahans, like they say, they show up and suddenly there's cohesion. The offensive line looks good run blocking, Tony Pollard has a ton of room and he's got a ton of juice. And I also saw a soft

But for the sake of this show.

Titans plus four Okay, well, I think there's a completely mispriced line in Arizona. The Rams are not favored, The Rams are underdogs. That makes absolutely zero sense to me. There is no way. And so if I believe they're going to win straight up, why would I not believe that they're gonna win If you're gonna give me an extra point?

Okay, why not? Right?

So I think that the Rams. Look, I understand that there are a lot of question marks in terms of injuries. The O line has just been pretty decimated, But tell me who on that Cardinals team is going to get after a guy like Matthew Stafford who can disproportionately handle pressure, like to the point where you know, Matthew I watched him in Detroid. He didn't have an O line there either.

I love that I picked them as well. They're not They're not one of my.

Picks, but yet they're not one of your picks.

I mean, they're on my long list, but.

I find it because that means I get to Yeah.

I like that we don't have all the same picks. They're dangerous. Oh wait, they are one of my three picks. I'm going to go off.

I totally forgot.

I like it, get people more.

But I get like the arguments against them because their defense, if they have a weakness, it's against the ground game. It's Kyler Murray, it's James Connor, it's Trey Bentson.

Actually got in the mix.

But it matters to me that last year the two games were not competitive at all. The Rams won these two by forty. So it's a division matchup where there's some familiarity there.

I take it back.

I actually will take the Rams as as one of my picks. I'm going to go for my third pick. Eagles minus six and a half. Can Kirk Cousins play football still? Like at a high level.

Can can he move well?

Do you really want to ask that question against the Philadelphia defense, because that's not even just like any old defense. That's a heck of a tough defense to make him like he didn't look I mean, and the Steelers is an awesome defense as well, but like it didn't. It was very different the pistol. What was that no play action was? I'm not sure what was going on there, Maybe totally different game plan.

It's crazy to me that it would actually make sense to play Michael Pennix. I think early this season and wait till Kirk is healthy, because he just showed he wasn't healthy. So when we're doing these picks, I'm mostly looking at the number kind of like you and just seeing if it's like a little bit off. But I do think early in the season, before we really know good who's bad, you can get some funky numbers.

And this is actually a high number.

And yet I'm just trusting my eyes and saying you can't overreact to what happened with Kirk Cousins in Week one, and that they're going to have to show me that there have an offense and a quarterback that's actually functional. At this point, I don't really believe it, and I don't think their defense is very good either, So give me Eagles minus six.

And a half. Okay, So I'm staying with that same number six and a half, and I'm going with a little bit of spice here because I think New Orleans keeps it closer than people expect. So I think New Orleans plus six and a half ways not straight. I don't have New Orleans winning straight up. I do think that the Cowboys are the winner of this matchup, but I think six and a half is too high. I know that the Cowboys are playing at home, so that numbers influenced by that. I did see what happened with

Oh, come on, they put up forty seven.

But that's my point, we didn't We don't know what they're going to do when they're under duress, because they're going to be under three pressures. That's all of the number of pressures that Derek Carr faced. Micah Parsons is good for three pressures on his own, let alone. So my point is is we saw that it's a good offense when the defense was giving them a lot of favorable looks, but we don't know what's happened. It's a remade. O see a remade situation here, So we don't I'm

That's why I love the six points. I'm with you.

That was I was debating coming into the studio. Do I go Eagles minus six and a half or did I go Saints plus six as my third pick?

So I know something really funny. Yes, I actually had the same debate and then you took it and I was like, fine, I'll.

Go with because, Okay, when you're thinking about these games early in the season, you're right, we don't know a lot about the Saints and we don't know a lot about it to just take points because here's what I feel like I do know about the Saints offense. They're better than a year ago. Because at no point last year did their running game ever open up holes like that.

They played the Panthers twice last year.

I know the Panthers defense might be worse last year, but they played some of the worst defense in the league last year.

They never did that. They never scored nine straight times, they.

Never protected Derek Carr that well, they are going to be better this year. And the Cowboys, that was a very strange game too. In the second half they only had like fifty yards of offense. Like that half counts too when I look at their evaluation. I know they were playing against the Browns, so that gives me some concern and maybe the Browns are just a total mess

Yeah, I'm with you on all of that, except I do want to point out the NFL robbed us of something. Actually, it would actually be a John Fossil that robbed us of something. I think Brandon Aubrey could have made that seventy one yard er and I'm mad but we didn't get to see him try. So if it ever happens again, just like, let us see it because it's fun and exciting. It's a reason to love the NFL. A seventy one yard he could have made it.

It's wildly conservative not to attempt that kick. Why not because you're so afraid of a kickoff return? Happiness not gonna half dynamic. It's dynamic. That means that you don't know what's gonna happen. So let's review our picks. In the end, we are both on Rams winning this week. Yep, I checked.

Donny like that.

Absolutely. Ellis will be into the show this week. I don't want to get her to making picks that early in her life.

Eagles minus he's.

Allowed to pick, just like us. We are allowed to pick.

The NFL policy against it has us just making picks. But you can follow us on this show every week. And again it's gonna be Eagles minus six and a half for me, the Rams and the Titans plus four. You are taking the Steelers fout, thet Broncos fust and then what were your other two?

And then same with you on the Rams, and then I'm taking the Cowboys to win, but not to win by more than six points.

Okay, so I'm going to do a thing on this show each week. You can take or you can leave. You can tell me what you think. Last week on this very show, I gave you a few more picks. I gave the listeners like, here are the ones that just mixed, and then I made a square around them on this on this note card that I have, you know how those picks did last week?

They would have four and oh so I would have been six and one.

If you if you were tracking my picks last a guy, the Saints, the Colts, the.

I can write something in a box that happened last week too, right.

So this week the ones that just miss it was also your Saints.

I agree with you there.

I kind of like the Falcons and the Bucks both getting points as underdogs. How the Vikings are at home, the Bucks are on the road. But it's a lot of points to give the Vikings five at home in the Bucks seven and a half. And then I like I mentioned I like the Steelers, and I kind of like the Jaguars. This week against the Browns team, I don't think it's going to be very good. But those aren't those aren't my favorite.

You're so generous. Why, well, then we'll put then we'll add in my spicy too. It's just my one s. But it's a player one Okay. I mean it kind of breaks the rules. But you broke the rules, I'm also going to break the rules. I think brock Bauer scores his first touchdown this weekend.

Ooh, that's a good one.

Listen. They're gonna be playing from behind, They're going to need to throw the ball. I think that the Ravens have shown that if you don't know if Devanta Adams who are going to cover, Jacoby Myers, who are going to cover? So I think brock Bowers, who ran nine routes, nine different routes last week, that means they trust him. And he was on the field for he ran twenty six total routes. So if you're looking at who they might trust and who could be, I just think it's a good pick.

I'm as fantasy owner title. And they gave up a lot over the middle of the field last week.

I'm just saying, I think that's that yards after the catch. They're watching that film, zach O Orbware, brock Bowers is.

Coming for you.

Because there weren't like a lot of rookies that had monster games. There was a lot of kind of brock Bower sape games like five or fifty eight. That's an awesome that is a monster tight endgame. He looked like exactly like he looked in college. So I'm very excited as someone who drafted him in my fantasy team. And I helped my daughter draft her fantasy team and she got out.

Wait so she could play fantasy, but you can't pick it.

She could play.

I play a little fantasy. She won her league last year by taking almost all rams. That was our picks for this week. I'm excited to do this each and every week. We're both two and one, so we're on the plus side. I am feeling good about it. That's all for this week's NFL Daily. Of course, we will be back on Sunday night for the recap show in the meantime.

So glad that football is back.