Chargers-Raiders Recap and Top 6 MVP rankings - podcast episode cover

Chargers-Raiders Recap and Top 6 MVP rankings

Dec 15, 202336 min
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Episode description

In a virtual room hero Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Amazon Prime Analytics Expert Sam Schwartzstein  to recap the Week 15 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Raiders and the Chargers. First, we break down the dominant performance by the Raiders on both sides of the ball (5:28). Next, we take a look at how this loss impacts the Chargers and what head coach Brandon Staley’s future with the team looks like (13:15). Following the recap, Sam shares with us his NEW QBDI metric (Quarterback Difficulty Index) and what it means (19:31). And finally, we examine the Top 6 MVP rankings (25:12).

 

Note: time codes approximate. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Derek first and goal from the one yard line and into the end zone for the touchdown. Goes to a Mere White, good protection going from the end zone, often making the grab Trey Tucker for the touchdown. It's coming passes, reach, store and hold into the touchdown by Jacoby Myers. Second and seventh, well the action wide wide, wide open touchdown. Michael Mayer taking the snap will be Brandon Folding. He'll keep it, he'll run and he'll run all the way

to the end zone. First out from the twenty yard line. O'Connell to the end zone, touchdown raiders second in goal, Myers is gonna throw touchdown. Devontae Adams hauls it in no huddle here stick look him, look out from behind, and the ball is out. It's gonna be ruled. It's it's alive and going to the end zone right now. For what is ruled a touchdown is John Jenkins, You're second down and thirteen. Oh baby, unbelievable, Jack Jones.

Speaker 2

They do it again.

Speaker 1

I mean, there are bad dreams and there are crazy bad dreams. And for the Chargers spend that kind of a night.

Speaker 2

It was that kind of a night. Eight touchdowns. We usually don't go so long on the highlights leading in, But we just couldn't choose which of the eight Raiders eight touchdowns he wanted to choose. They finish it out sixty three to twenty one. It was the first game first team since the nineteen fifty Rams to have eight different players score a touchdown. We had a three hundred and twenty plus pound man John Jenkins running in for forty four yards and that wasn't even the best defensive

touchdown of the night. Jack Jones got that. I am Greg Rosenthal. We're gonna break down this game a little. We'll talk a little big picture Chargers Raiders as well after this, and I will give you my MVP ladder with some great statistical help because I'm going to be helped tonight by Sam Schwartztein. If you watch Prime Vision on Amazon, you've seen Sam's head just pop up in the corner all night. He's just like a part of the family dinner at our house. Just Sam just popping up.

Oh there he is with some good stats. He is there in Vegas tonight. Sam. Welcome, Thank you, thanks so much. Greg and I, you know we were talking about it. We talk about the big man touchdown. That was by far my favorite touchdown. I want to know what your favorite touchdown was.

Speaker 3

You know, I got to hop in early with some analytics, some lytics as we call them here, that every time we get a big dog touchdown at thick six, if you will shout out to my gold junior, we got to know how fast he was moving. He was moving at fourteen point nine to five hmmm miles per hour. That would have been the fourth fastest by a guy over three twenty plus, who's pushing more than three bills in the fourth fast in the EDGs era since twenty sixteen.

Speaker 2

Great job bringing the numbers right off the bat. Yeah, I wanted Al to get a little more excited there. But I think from his angle and I could tell from our angle too, was like what happened on that play? Was that actually a touchdown? It was just one of those nights. It was forty two nothing at halftime, the second largest shutout or the second largest margin, tied for

the second largest in the history of the NFL. The only thing that was bigger than that game I remember well Tom Brady in the snow taking it out on Jeff Fisher, who had been honking about Bill belichicking the Patriots forty five nothing at halftime. I think that was back in two thousand and nine, And yet that wasn't

the most embarrassing moment in the game. After it was forty two to nothing, the next three touchdowns for the Raiders were thrown by Jacoby Myers, ran in by John Jenkins, and then returned by Jack Jones, the former Patriot who made to me one of the most fun plays of the year, reading one of Easton Stick's pass, catching it one handed, reading it so well that the pass was

behind him and going in. And at that moment, Sam, they have sixty three points and we got pretty much the whole fourth quarter to go, and I'm thinking history that we're going to be talking history. Were you rooting for seventy three or more? Or were you feeling too bad for the Chargers at that point.

Speaker 3

I just wanted to root for score Gami at that point, I'm completely honest. We were now got one. You got one, and we got one, and we got one. So you know, you always have to have something to root for, you know, whether that's the spread or the over, everything's already hit. You got to root for something and so score Gomi's what we were rooting for at the end of the game.

Speaker 2

I mean, I would assume once you get over sixty three, most everything's a scorer. Got me the.

Speaker 3

Sixty six fourteen it happened before. Okay, you know we were nervous. We were nervous if team wanted to settle for a field goal, we were nervous.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I wanted it because I did feel for Brandon Stale and we'll get to him quickly. Let's before we just kind of move the bigger picture stuff and some more fun stuff. I do want to give Raiders credit. You know, they've played with Antonio Pierce now for six weeks. They're three and three. Their defensive numbers are good. I think they're giving up something like fifteen sixteen points a game now with Antonio Pierce, so he's a defensive coach.

They've had some good defensive games for the most part. They're three and three. They kept going after it in this game. They were throwing not nothing crazy, but they were thrown with the lead, which I think that's respecting your opponent. To me, it's fine, you don't need to just lay down. But I think he knows, Hey, look,

I have four games. If I do something historical, if I if I'm showing Mark Davis on national television what I can do, him and Champ Kelly, their interim GM are fighting to try to stay there, and I think they have a chance. I don't pretend that I have inside information on this, but I think Mark Davis said publicly, I'm going to give these guys a champce and gonna make an evaluation from everything they do. If they've had six games, they still have three fairly difficult games left.

But if they happen to play well in those three games, maybe beat the Chiefs you go to and one something like that, I think they'll have a chance. So I do think there is some meaning, bigger picture to take out of this game other than it was just a fun night in Vegas.

Speaker 3

Yeah, you talked about passing throughout the game. In that two when it was a two possession game at the start, there was a plus nine point two percent pass right over expected. That's a mixt gen stats metric looking at on every down and distance, everywhere all the players line up, do we expect the team to pass or not? And so that was one of the highest ones of the season at that point, so it was really.

Speaker 2

Wet the whole game, or at what point in the game.

Speaker 3

Started an two possession game, So yeah, that was where it's like it really started to kind of show, like, hey, is this guy taking the pot up the gas. It's kind of getting out of hand already. It was the first quarter, and so when we're looking at pass right over expected, it's like, yeah, most teams in similar scenarios would not have passed, and he's ten percent nearly ten

percent higher. So you know, I think I think both this team is a unique team, right, you know in O'Connell fourth round pick, not what really you know, the guy you'd expect to take you to the next level everyone got when they got blanked last week by Brian Floor. As people don't realize Brian Floor is in the Vikings is really the most unique defense in the NFL right now. He recovered zero or drop eight, So that's really hard for young quarterbacks to take advantage of, especially if you

can't run the ball. So good, good, good game for them. I don't think as much as last game didn't tell us who this coaching staff was, this game also doesn't tell us who this coaching staff was I'm not gonna say, you know, maybe there's somewhere in the middle. They're definitely not either either team that we've seen so far weeks.

Speaker 2

No, but I love the response. It's Aidan O'Connell. You know you mentioned mid round rookie. I think it's a quid himself. Well, overall, he looks like he's going to have a career. Been better than average, I would say for a rookie quarterback, and he's a mid round guy. Two hundred and forty eight yards, four touchdowns, twenty for thirty four. But I let Pierce was asked by you know, your colleague Kaylee Hartung out a halftime, what's the attitude here, and he said, like to not let your foot off

the pedal. And I love that. To me, that's very Raiders. That's something Mark Davis will appreciate. That something Al Davis will appreciate. And the crowd was appreciating it. I mean, it's the most expensive seat in sports. For two five and eight teams put on a show. They were booing Antonio Pierce when they didn't go it for it on fourth and short in the second half, which I loved. He did not he punted a couple times on fourth and short, so he did not get carried away. But

I love it. I think, look, these guys are evaluated on statistics. Everyone is playing for their next contract, not just the coach, but DeVante Adams wants to have a nice night, a big night for once. He gets one on one. Eight catches Zamier Whites making one of his maybe his first career start, certainly the most he's been used in a long time. Everyone wants to ball out Jack Jones trying to keep his career going. Everyone wants to bull out what are you gonna do?

Speaker 3

Stop?

Speaker 2

Stop playing. I don't think Brandon Staley, who surprisingly talked to Kaylee hart on going into halftime, I give him some credit for that and wasn't giving away anything emotionally on the sideline. I don't think he would mind and people and I saw it on Twitter, so that's what I'm reacting to, Like, people need to calm down with Antonio Pears somehow breaking some sort of code. Give me a break.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean I think it goes both ways, though, don't I would not have been a surprised if Brandon Staley when covers zero, the entire rest of the game as well, right sure, oh sure, And that's like that. The code is that you have a choice, and I have a choice when you do a double pass. What I loved is that they installed one double pass this game and they just ran the same one twice. It's like, you know, like what they did a different over motion on it, so it was probably a sideline thing.

Speaker 2

Well it worked the first time. I know, it was just two for two for twelve yards, but he got the touchdown on it. Jacoby Myers perfect well, not quite perfect passer rating, but pretty nice tonight. Do you do NGS numbers on like Jacoby Myers as a passer?

Speaker 3

I didn't. That's me showing how unprepared I am for postgame with you.

Speaker 2

I again, and we'll move kind of to the bigger picture stuff soon. And I do want to get into your role and everything, because it is very fascinating to me. I really do enjoy and maybe that's why your producer reached out. I don't know. I've been talking up watching it this way. To me, just the coaches film alone, getting to watch a game like that is beautiful. But all the things Amazon does to supplement that really helps,

especially the names and the circles and everything. I do want to shout out Malcolm Kunz, who was awesome in this game. Was crushing one of the best healthy players the Chargers have left. You know, they were kind of a mash unit, not many healthy players. He was awesome rushing the passer, beat Rashaan Slater a number of times. I don't know what he ended up with quarterback hits, but two sacks. He had that force fumble and he was crushing it and he was a big reason why

they lost. And look the defense. There was a couple of fumbles early by the Chargers special teams and on offense and Raiders converted it early. But the Chargers defense, to me, was a big part of this story in the first half of this game. And you know, the conversation coming out of it will be whether Brandon Staley keeps his job through this weekend, because I think we know he's very likely to lose it after the end

of the season. And I just kind of look back on him in his run because when he came in he was a little bit of an analytics darling in just that he was so aggressive. I thought he somehow lost the plot. Sometimes that he went for it so much and then he pulled back so much, and sometimes he seemed to be reacting to what the public was saying,

and that's always dangerous. But the thing that I always come back to with him, and I'm sure he knows this in his heart once he has time to look back, and his was he's a defensive coach and the defense just was never good enough and his three years as Chargers coach. I don't know if you like don't like me using DVOA. Are they like a rival? Okay?

Speaker 3

I don't love Aaron.

Speaker 2

I love some in the analytics game. They don't like each other. There's different beefs. It's a tough either. The streets are tough about. There's also friendships out there too.

Speaker 3

I am I am. I am one of those people in the analytics world, especially because I come from a football background, that any number that will help us get better explaining football to people.

Speaker 2

That's why I'm I'm fan of Yes And he's been doing it and.

Speaker 3

The results are there and one of the best predictors you can get on an individual player basis. It's it's a great.

Speaker 2

Stat right, and they've been doing it for so long. And I was gonna mention Chargers defense under Staley twenty sixth in twenty twenty one, twenty first last year, and coming into this game they were twenty seventh. Obviously, Herbert kind of peaked, I would say in terms of his production. His efficiency is everything in twenty twenty one, and his numbers kind of have gone down the last couple of years. So that's the most important thing is to develop your guy.

And so I'm giving a little bit of a retrospective Sam, just because there's a decent chance he might not have his job by the time we tape next and we're gonna be just recapping games on Sunday. It won't even be it'll be kind of an afterthought then. So tonight put me in a little bit of a reflective mood looking back on this Dally era.

Speaker 3

Yeah, to start on tonight, one of the stats we didn't get to bring in to the game, But you know, to me, it was a beautiful night of rudimentary football, getting down to the brass tacks on it. And what I mean by that is what the Raiders game plan was to attack Mike Davis, the cornerback for the Chargers, and you know, when you're watching film getting ready for a game, it's about finding the fish, right, who's the weak link and how do we take advantage of them.

It's not always hey, we have the best concepts. Look at all these you plays. It was where's Mike Davis? And Mike Davis is not hard to find even though they're trying to hide him. He plays into the boundary more than in the eighty percent of the time or nearly eighty percent of the time. He's in the boundary and they you put a guy there because he can't cover the whole field, and they still attacked him. He still has the most touchdowns over he has six touchdowns

on him when targeted over ten air yards. He had two to night. You know they knew Trey Tucker, with his speed, they were gonna attack him there. It was seriously a very simple game plan. Third down, go to mayor big play, find Mike Davis and I love I love when football can be like that and you can make it easy. And like you said, analytically was he was seemed like a darling, but he was mostly going off vibes. You know, I'm gonna be completely honest like that.

You look at when you look. So in game, they have an analytics expert on their staff that is helping coach make decisions and he's guiding him. But they don't have access to the same data that you or I will see on Twitter or that I have access to with the next Gen Status Decision Guide. So the end game, they're just the printing out a book that has the possible scenarios they might run into. Analytics expert is giving

a recommendation and then it's up to the coach. And so when you look at the next Stat's Decision Guide, which will has a live data, now we don't know what their game plan is, so I don't have game plan data for them. But when you look at the next ship Statisision Guide, it is as robust as can be on giving the right recommendations. And Brandon Staley has lost more win probability on situations to go for it when the.

Speaker 4

When the uh? Then when he when he treat me with the model exactly, thank you. So he's being too aggressive. And so when you say, oh, is he is he really following analytics, he's not. He's just kind of going on vibes. Whether it was the first game or his first season, he had a defense he's in trust. Then he spent one hundred and nine million dollars on defense with Khalil Mack and he goes, oh, Okay, now I

have to trust my defense. And so he just kind of walked goes off of vibes in those moments, not really focusing on being as analytically savvy as it might have seen in the first year.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's a shame because they've had great players, but Bosa hasn't been able to stay on the field Derwin James for whatever reason this year. Maybe it's just usage. Often they're using him kind of as a single high guy and that's not really His strength hasn't been as impactful this season. And I just think, you know that a couple of moments before we move on from the Chargers,

because again, I'm just anticipating what may happen here. You know, the twenty seven to nothing lost last year was concerning, But to me, Staley's responses to questions about that loss this season, we're almost more concerning. Like he was, he was just feeling it. He was tight, and I just think back to that last game of the regular season.

I guess that would have been in twenty one when Justin Herbert's just at that point playing as well as he's ever played as a pro, playing out of his mind, playing one of the best games I can think of that a quarterback could play that year. Hell, he got an MVP voter or to or maybe it was just one vote that year.

Speaker 3

I think it was fine.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and they still lose. They still lose because they can't stop Derek Carr in the Raiders and that defense can't get one stop late in that game. So it ends up just being a great shootout and they don't get rewarded for it. So we got to get you an MVP vote. Do you really have one?

Speaker 3

I don't. I don't, but I would. I think the guy is special. I think he did a lot of fun stuff on the field in the way he fights their injuries.

Speaker 2

I know, and he probably will be starting over unless they wanted to get really crazy and go to Kellen Moore as the head coach or maybe the interim head coach. Who knows. I see. I see a lot of Bill Belichick stuff out there. I would not hold your breath on that, like.

Speaker 3

I think you have to. What people have to see is that this is not fantasy football where everyone's created equal. Like, uh, you know, one of the things I should say about Brandon Staley White went for it so much on fourth down was his first year. He hit a four year deal. It's very hard to get fired in your first year because having run a football league before, you don't have in the budget double paying the head coach. You just it's it's it's it's not a thing that you account

for when going forward. So I think, you know, paying the money that Belichick will demand, and I think that's something that the Chargers aren't going to do right.

Speaker 2

And I I look at it too. Just Belichick famously said about what he Johnson in a book or was quoted sorts, was I'm not going to work for that bleeping guy. Uh when he ended up, you know, retiring five five days after uh he was hired or two days after whatever it was. And I just think you look at the situation, Tom Telesco, the GM, will he be there? Will he won't. Belichick's only going to have

all the power. And there's a certain amount of ego that's involved a certain amount of it, like who would even want to take him on? And to me, the Chargers are just not the ownership or if tell Telesco's there as a GM, someone that's gonna want to take him on. We do have a quote from from Brandon Staley after this game. I'm just gonna read for you quickly. He said, games like this happened in the NFL to every coach that's ever coaching this league. You can look

at any great coach that's ever coached in league. Sometimes games like this happen. I don't need to retrace history, but it's part of sports. Sometimes there are games where it doesn't go right, none of it. You have to put it behind. You got to move on to the next thing. It's philosophical, it's even true, but it's not what any charges fan or I suspect Dean span Us is going to want to hear tonight. Let let's talk

something more fun. Let's get out of tonight. You broke out a stat between the third and the fourth quarter, I mean breaking news. It was called qb D. I explain this stat for me.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so QB difficulty Index and we call it QBDI for short. It kind of set out. It was like a little bit of a pipe dream. You know, we have a great team at Amazon and the things that

we can kind of create. But we have so many different metrics, whether the composites or machine learning metrics like EPA per dropback or different things that can measure the performance of quarterback, and like none of them are everyone set picks and choose, which is when they want to use passer rating and then just passing score, you know,

passer rating, and they don't have sacks. QBR that has SAX, but we don't know exactly how it's made right, all the different right, Like, there's a bunch of different things that measure the performance. So we thought, well, let's measure the world around the quarterback and see if we can create a level playing fields. And this quarterback has a more difficult time than this one, and so then we can then look at that as a baseline and saying okay,

now we're trying to compare it. And what's great about the stat this year is this is something we thought of last year in one of our games. And now the conversation about MVP is all about brock Party's life is so easy. He's got the easiest game plan, everything's made the easy for him. And qbd I is trained on expert annotations myself, other NFL players that have done this that that kind of know football, annotating which plays are most easy for a quarterback to complete, and we

take that, we run some machine learning on it. We have some of stack rank metrics that we're applying to things that the quarterback doesn't typically control. And then it spits out a number, and so it has a pretty high agreeance with how experts anna tape plays kicking the exact number, but it's very high where the model agrees

with the experts. So we feel confident that the numbers that we're able to give out correctly identify which quarterbacks have the most difficult games, of which quarterbacks are the easiest.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and to give our listeners some background, I do know you are a former player. It used to play offensive line at Stanford with Andrew Luck and I'm sure that's all going into it. I am curious, does it so? What does it take into account? It takes an account how easy the passes scheme? Does it take in like opponent into account?

Speaker 3

So I got to put this the right way. The thing about machine learning is it's not you can't always pick out what components are taking place, right so even when you see on prime vision, if your Prime Vsion watcher, we have defensive alert when it's giving out a recommendation of this player is likely to blitz or not. I can't go in and say this is the moment using

the components they're telling you we're able to do. Is every single player in the NFL is tracking chips in their shoulder pads in the ball on the we have a wire frame of the field, a web of the field, and we're tracking those player movements, and then we annotate plays off of identifying these plays are more difficult than these plays, and we stack rank different plays, and then the model trains off that information.

Speaker 2

So I can't when you're starting it out, are you sort of starting it out like that it's more difficult because the defense is playing. Well, I'm just curious if it's including the defense all the way the.

Speaker 3

Model works and I'm curious. Yeah no, no, yeah no, you're talking to the biggest football door. The way we view it is and identifies how easy the game plan is, which we saw tonight for Eastern stick screen passes, easy throws, get them all out quick. We know that is involved and that we're able to match that up. We're able to then also see as offensive line blocking correctly, is this quarterback being pressured a lot?

Speaker 1

Right?

Speaker 3

You see that plays of pressure have higher difficulties very easy. And then we have a we have a stat that we co developed with next Gen Stats called prime targets, which is identifying players that are open or likely to convert a first down if they caught the ball in that moment. You're you know, if you're watching the broadcast, these are the players that light up green with a green orb. Uh, because we're measuring not just who the quarterback throws to, but is any other player on the

field open. So the more prime targets, the easier the players. And so there's different metrics that go into it, but all the player tracking data is also being measured on top of it. So uh, we're able to confiantly say that you know the coordinator, your offensive line, your and your skill position players are are doing their jobs, then

you're going to have an easier game. There's also a way that quarterbacks can be unie because if your quarterback that your coach calls quick game and you do not throw that quick game plat pass, you're gonna have a difficult game. So that's the only way the quarterback really is controlling how difficult their game is. And we've seen quarterbacks do that where they're just gonna hold onto the ball and trying hero ball a lot. That game makes

to play more difficult. Guys like Patrick Mahomes Josh Allen who we see do hero ball things. They're not doing it on the quick passes.

Speaker 2

Right, they're doing it on the right on the right passes. And yeah, I saw you mentioned East and Stick had a you know, uh, I guess it would be a high score there in terms of it was easy.

Speaker 3

It was easy, So the lower the number of the easier score, so we scale everything from one to ten, and he would have hit a little bit a little bit above a three, which would have won one of the easier games this year.

Speaker 2

But to be fair, easton Stick not an embarrassment tonight. Despite the fact that they had like no points throughout the game. He actually ended up with two fifty seven and three touchdowns and even early when I know there was a fumble and he wasn't looking great to me, uh, didn't do the bad. Congratulations to all the fantasy owners, by the way, who had the gut to play an O'Connell or Easton stick three touchdowns, four touchdowns for O'Connell or Zamir White, nice night or Josh Palmer got the

long touchdown. It's like, if you had the stones to do any of that, this actually ended up being a scorefest. Let's use your new stat to break down my MVP ladder. We actually haven't done this on the show. We've talked like Dak Purty, but it's just kind of in general conversations. I hadn't thought to sit down and do it. I used to always write this as a weekly column at

the end of the season. I just want to throw Patrick Mahomes in as like an honor roll mention, because really he's playing outstanding despite everything that's happening around him. But I wrote down six names because I could not bear to not include Josh Allen as my number six. I actually think there's a chance he finishes this season completely on fire and is playing as high level this season as just about anyone, and that could get into people's minds for the MVP. Tied for fourth and fifth,

I have the two forty nine. As Kyle c and Ann said, he did not want to pick between Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purty, and I'm not going to either. I'm going to give some reasons for that, but I am curious how Purdy and this group matches up with your your numbers in terms of the new stat you came up with.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so, yeah, so which guys did you want to know first? On the difficulty range?

Speaker 2

Let let's go, Let's go party. But you can just tell me kind of compared to the rest of the field and I'll run through my the rest of mine later, Like how does Perdy rate out here?

Speaker 3

Yeah, Party would be in the upper third right or right of the edge. Of easiest quarterbacks, he's at a four point nine to six. Tua is the lowest at three point nine to one. Right, And a large part of what we're seeing with Tua is the quick game, and those guys are getting open, and he's not really diverting off the quick game quite a bit, and he's throwing behind line scrimmage, you know, over one hundred percent of his yards in the or not over one hundercent,

that's just RhE most inside the red zone. Ninety plus percent of his yards are yack, right, So easy plays or screen. Screenplays are easy plays, and so we're seeing a lot of that from him. But Brock Pardy, his offensive line isn't blocking as well as some of the other offensive lines out there, and so when you're looking at how difficult it is, that's part of it. Now, is it making it easier for him because there are

open receivers quite a bit? Absolutely? Is he being called upon to play as much as other as to pass as much as some of the other guys, not as much. So we're seeing that on a total difficulty place. He's not playing seen as many difficult plays, but he's still able to operate within those plays. And you know when the Brock party Dak Prescott is the two leading favorites or the you know, the betting favorites right now, they're right around each other. They're in the exact same territory.

So those guys, where's Lamar? Let me look at the list. He's one of the more difficult ones because he's he's running around quite a bit. Yeah, probably one of the highest guys in the NFL the eligible players. So looking at our list right now, Lamar is up there. So if you're looking for Lamar as your MVP, this is the stat to help back up your MVP.

Speaker 2

Well you can just see, you know, put his rushing numbers in there too, and his rushing QBR value. I have Lamar number three right now, and before forty nine ers fans go crazy that I would have you know, Purty fourth or fifth. A lot of it. First of all, it is some eye test and evaluating like how well this player is playing relative, But having someone in the top five MVP, and for me that would be the top three quarterbacks is saying he's playing at an exceptionally

high level. I just like the other people playing at an exceptionally high level, like a little more. And a big part of that is what you mentioned, which is opportunity. He has less than about one hundred less dropbacks than Dak Prescott. That's like two to three games for Brock Purty. So when I think about that, they are asking Dak Prescott to do more, which they clearly are. He essentially runs the offense himself. He's changing all the plays, he's

changing the protection. He he has so much more on his plate. It's just it's just a fact. And then you're also adding that just volume wise, him and Lamar and some other quarterbacks have such a higher number of dropbacks. Lamar obviously as the running game. So that's why I'm giving like a slight edge. I have Lamar three Tyreek Hill two because to me, his value, what he's doing is just special at his position compared to maybe what

any quarterback season is having. If he can get over two thousand, I give him a chance, and then Dak would be my number one. Where where would you lean at this point in the season.

Speaker 3

Look, I have a tough time fault and breaking the trend of VP per dropback deciding who our MVP is going to be. It's done a pretty good job over the years.

Speaker 2

But that's looking back, like, isn't it that a team not to jump in? Sorry, isn't that to me? You'll be able to drop back a little bit of a team stat more than a quarterback stat.

Speaker 3

It's a holistic stat, absolutely, but you can't argue that quarterbacks don't have the most impact. And then, for the past seven years, I think, going back to Cam Newton, the EPA for dropback leader has won the MVP. So it passes the eyeball test in terms of quarterback performance. And then I'll tell you this, this is probably my favorite reasoning on why Eat Rock Party should win it.

When Kyle Shanahan was asked preseason two years ago if Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter, he said, I don't know what. If we're all going to be alive tomorrow, how can I tell you that? And then he was asked this year if Rock Party was the starter coming off of a ucl tair, he said, Brock Purty would have to melt off the face of the earth for him not

to be the starter. So in terms of we're all saying that Kyle Shanhan's the guru the greatest, how does he view of this quarterback compared to the ones he's had in the past. I don't know. So should we

take Matt Ryan's MVP away from him? Right? Because he also led the league in mv okay, And so that's where I look at for brock perty Now, if you're asking me what I trade Brock Purdy for Patrick Mahomes, if straight up, if I were the the Niners, you know, I think I might take Patrick Mahomes on my team more. It's just, you know, it's hard to separate out the teams and the situations, and then my probably my last tongue in cheek reason for Brock Purdy. He's the eighty

first highest highest paid quarterback in the NFL. So when you talk about value you're getting for performance no more point per dollar greater. So we're gonna go semantics on MVP. He is definitely the most valuable quarterback in the NFL.

Speaker 2

That that is a completely fair point and would be a fun column like the most valuable players in the NFL, like relative to how much money they're making, and he would run away with that. I hear, I hear everything you're saying, but I think like multiple things can be true.

I think Matt Ryan that year, for instance, was so far ahead of the pack and was so exceptional in every way that that it's okay to in that year that he made sense for that award and to look around the league right now, And again, the volume thing really does matter a lot to me personally. And I think Dak and Lamar are having exceptional season. But I'm kind of splitting nits. And I also would say, like four weeks is an exceptionally long time in an MVP race.

A lot of times what you think with four weeks to go, it completely changes, and for me having pretty third among quarterbacks, it's like three among great quarterbacks having great seasons and there's very little difference between them. And I'm very open minded to seeing kind of how this goes. But I think it's okay to break from what voters

do in the past. Two people say like, well, you know, Tyreek, you can't consider that because they haven't done in the past, Like why do we have to why do we have to be slaves to what is often an unthinking process for a lot of the voters, because I know some of their thought processes and they're just like asking the assistance at the place they work at to do it for them. Sometimes, like I do we can break from the e PA has to be the the no the choice.

Speaker 3

We actually can. I think it's just it's a little bit of a tough pill to swallow when all of a sudden for Brock Party, it struggles like we don't have many non first round pick m vps. I think it's Tom Brady. Did Tom Brady win MVP? Yeah? Yeah, and then you have rich Gannon right was the last after that? So, uh, we have a little first round pick bias. So Dak Prescott doesn't follow that, but I think that's what that's That could be a little bit of it too. So look, and I know I know

the brock Party stuff. If you really want to get me to start on someone, it's probably Josh Allen, But I think you have to make the playoffs and they're still outside looking in. So Josh Allen probably does more for his team than anyone right now.

Speaker 2

I'm kind of with you on that, and it's a good point. Dak Prescott fourth round pick, Tyreek Hill, fifth round pick, brock Party, mister irrelevant. So it's not all about the draft, Sam, I would love to dive deep into all things Prime Vision, but I want to get you out of there before it gets too late. I appreciate you joining me, and look, if you're an overseas listener and you don't get Prime, I feel bad for you.

But if you're here, because we do have a lot of listeners overseas, if you're in the States and you haven't been checking out, just just hit that down button

on the main broadcast and it really does change. I wish it was an option, but maybe it's just nice as a once a week kind of like dessert or something like that watching the coaches film and everything that goes on with the Prime Vision Live is a much different experience than when you've tried to watch coaches film, or if you've watched coaches film like after the Fact and on Game Pass or on NFL Plus or anything.

It really is a fun different way. It's like being there and it's been fun, and you've added a lot to the broadcast. This here shit you, Sam.

Speaker 3

Thanks so much. Yeah. Now you have my number, you have Alex Strande's number. You have the information. So you have ideas, you want to see something during the game, you send it over.

Speaker 2

Oh, my son's got lots of ideas. He is hooked on Prime Vision so he loves it too. So I will be bugging you with that and our listeners. We will be bugging you again. On Sunday the recap show will be.

Speaker 3

Live.

Speaker 2

Wow Week fifteen sixteen games. We'll hit all the Saturday games on Sunday night until then. For Sam Schwarztein, he the call

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