They around the NFL podcast thanks, they could give Jason Statham a run for his money.
From the Chris Westling podcast studio, It's around the NFL. I'm Dan Hans's got heroes here, Greg Rosenthal, Mark Sessler heroes both Week fifteen preview in Bulk And here's some data points.
Boys, will a little data points entering? Sure, Yeah, I mean, of course get.
Into the Yeah, I think Dan, I think data absolutely, data points.
Here we go.
Thirteen of thirty teams playing Saturday Sunday Monday are either seven and six or six and seven. Here's something's going to really blow your mind. Gregy forty three point three percent of the league. Aaron Shatz, friend of the show Analytics Demigod, creator of DVOA.
And many hot Saturday Nights Good Ladies.
Said on Twitter seven different NFL games this week where his projected line is less than three points, including all three Saturday games we have, and you're going to get the recap tonight. A true loser goes home match on
TNF five and eight Raiders five and eight charges. I know they're already dead, but nine losses goodbye and three seven and six vs. Seven and six, both of them are two seven and six and seven and six both Saturday on NFL Network Ding and one six and seven v. Six and seven, which should be an elimination game, but it won't be because the NFC Wildcard race is quite frankly uncouth.
I feel like many decades ago, like Pete Roselle, former commissioner, would have like a long NFL dream in the middle of the night and it would look like this, like this is what they've always wanted, and we're.
Here where Rozelle wanted. I know rog wants it in general, superpowers, right, Burt Bell wanted it. Not to get all oh Wesseling on you here, but he would talk about Burt Bell all the time.
Mark, that was his vision, Right, you should just excuse yourself. It's just no reason to do the show.
I'm just more saying like, for for as long as we've been watching football, like they didn't want four teams to dominate everyone else in you know, eighteen teams are non existent right now. Each week we thought about like we could speed round through games that don't have a team that matters, and we haven't found one of those games yet.
In the past, we've been able to start picking and choosing late in the season. As it stands right now, that's not really an option for ninety five percent.
Of the games, which is cool. Let's go, let's figure it out. No.
Yeah, the new world, like the way the NFL draft happened back in the day, was to keep everyone competitive and then the salary cap like it it is, I think, in part the most successful American sport because it's as socialist as possible. They all own the league together, and at some point they've kind of gotten rid of that a little bit. It was in the best interest of all of the teams to make the league better as a whole in a way that just other businesses aren't.
And it happened to work pretty well for this business. That's why we don't have, you know, Patrick Mahomes signing for one billion dollars. I was thinking, like, if sho Hey Otani is seven hundred million dollars, what is Patrick Mahomes' actual value, like on a ten year contract, I would go like one point five billion something like that.
Otani is kind of an outlier because he's a true global brand.
I get it, that's true, but Mahomes is becoming that, Like I guess that's the goal as we as we talked about on Wednesday with the international series expanding, they want Mahomes to become like Messi and like Otani, and I could see it happening.
But every football a quarterback is more valuable than any baseball player could ever be.
Otani's like like in the Unicorn.
World, literally brought up to one player in the history since Babe Ruth that maybe it's different because he's a picture too.
Right, But I just you know, just look at the Angels record over the last six years. Patrick Mahomes would would not be out look at their attendance.
That's you know, speaking of Chris Westling, the old lombardiism, like football is the perfect sport except for one thing the quarterbacks do in part m He just that's what it's all about.
And yet in this week quarterbacks for telling you that's not true.
This yeah, and this weird year, Patrick Mahomes is struggling relative to his brilliant career.
All right, let's get into it. I'm excited. Let's start. Mark goes here, Well, we're gonna start with the primetime games. Yeah, let's start here.
I like that you're excited, though, for what these are the two best games that we're going to talk about today, by the way, or two of the three.
Yeah, we got a banger coming up with our first overall pick in the draft. But let's start with the Sunday night football affair, and it is a very good one and it has big ramifications in the AFC at the top. For once, we're going to be talking about the top of the conference. The ten and three Ravens leading the AFC North. Are they currently the number one series?
Yeah?
Ties, ties, and they now travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars who lead the AFC South. Obviously, Greg, but these are two teams in different places. Is the Ravens who have had a very successful season. Obviously the record tells you that, but they also had a big win against the Rams at home on the walk off punt return, the type of game they've lost a few times this year. So just like, okay, three wins in a row Jacksonville.
On the flip side, they looked like when you looked at the schedule a fortnight ago, let's markism that means two weeks, it was like, you know, they actually have an inside track to the number one seed. And then they lose to Cincinnati, they lose to Cleveland, and now they kind of need this game to salt away their division and even stay in the hunt for a buye.
And when you look at how the team is trending, they really feel in different directions. Yes, you know, the Ravens aren't so dominant that every game is like a kakewalk. The last two games they were like in it tight games against the Chargers in the Rams, who aren't at the top of the league. And yet you look at the Jaguars and at least right now, I look at them and think, is this team any good?
Like?
Are they better than those six and seven and six teams? And I think right now, and it could certainly change, They're not. Their offensive line is quite banged up. They haven't played well even when they were healthy. They are thirtieth in pass block win rate and I think twenty eighth in run block win rate. They can't they can't run block, they can't pass block. Lawrence is hurt. He looked fine last week, but he missed a lot of throws. I don't know if that was because he also made
a lot of throws. So that I'm less worried about but he threw twenty seven passes to his two main receivers without Christian kirk there, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley that resulted in eighty seven yards. That's a lot of problems for one offense for a team that can't run the ball.
Evin Ingram finding his way has been a big help on the on the flip.
Side, He's been fantastic on the other side of the ball. Their best cornerback hasn't been himself and is out of practice, Tyson Campbell. The secondary's been giving up huge plays, Devin Lloyd's been completely targeted over the last two weeks as a linebacker, and they haven't had a good pass rush all year.
That's why I added all up.
And I think like they're probably better than a aching it out to be, but right now they don't look like a good team at all.
And that's why I'm locking up the Ravens. Let's go. We're just we're doing it. We're going, got a show going.
Yeah, and Greg has been out of control this season in the locks, and I feel like this is not the first, the second, or even the third time you've locked them locked them quite Baltimore. So yeah, if you're a Jaguars fan. Knowing Greg's historic pace right now bad news.
Mark.
I texted our producing crew that I was also locking up the Ravens, but it's too boring.
I'm not. I just don't want to do it to shot at you.
But no, no, you can go, because that would be all three of us doing and then it's just it's a boat heading off a waterfall.
At that point, you'll think about it. Let me think about this, Okay for the show. I'm not doing it. I'm not.
I'm not taking a shot at you at all. I know your strategy. We got into Greg's mind last week, and I enjoyed that aspect of it.
It's an interesting place in there. I'm sure it is in the old Rosenthal mine. I'm sure it is.
I like to your point about his targets, Trevor Lawrence. Last week, part of it was, you know, it's in Cleveland. It was a kind of a gloomy, strange day there. He looked fine to me in terms of his mobility. I mean, he thought he moved around really well. But then it's like, how did it affect everything else about him?
Throwing?
Because the one thing I saw over and over was that when he targeted Zay Jones without Christian Kirk in the lineup, disaster a card. Every time he had three interceptions, he had five turnover worthy plays. You're right about Evan Ingram, that's sort of his leading guy right now. But is that how that offense wants to be constructed.
I mean it should be. There needs to be like a robin to someone's batman, like I think.
I think the idea was supposed to be Ridley Kirk Ingram and then to a lesser degree, z It's like and it's a spread the wealth because Ridley hasn't Maybe they thought he'd be more of a number one type and he hasn't been consistent enough for that.
I mean, Kyle Hamilton getting hurt against the Rams would be a huge factor.
He's back at practice there.
I know.
It's like the I guess these injuries that look sort of catastrophic on Sunday, we find out that it's just a it's a giggle fest.
They're fined by Tuesday.
Oh. I'm sure it's probably been a rough week for him. He's probably grinding through it.
I'm not saying he doesn't feel pain. It's just that most of these guys probably hasn't laughed since last Saturday. Trevor Lawrence has a high ankle sprain. Yeah, man, and it didn't look like.
He had on a Super Bowl a high ankle spring.
It depends, Yeah, yeah, I think a high ankle sprain isn't is different for a quarterback then for a running back like you see romondra Stevenson as his example, he has a high ankle sprain. Now it could be a different variety. It's like see in a month and we might shut you down a quarterback. It's just a little bit different. But to your point, Greg, it is messing with the lower half of a QB, so some accuracy issues. Even if it looks like he's moving, well, maybe it
is affecting him. He would never say say it. Now here's an interesting stack, Greg. And another reason why just kind of riding the Ravens train this year is wise Baltimore has trailed.
This is from our research notes.
An NFL low one hour, sixteen minutes and eight seconds this entire season of game time, and.
You cant the rams right thinking about that game right in chunk.
And I don't want to do this because this is not how sports work.
But you could if they just changed the ending of a couple of those games that they let get away, they could be undefeated right now. That's the type of season the Ravens are having. So yes, it's a big test with the Jaguars. I think they're getting Jacksonville at a time where they're not so sharp.
And I do like the raven I think in some of those.
Games where they got nipped, they were sloppy on offense. I think we felt that way even in London, like it's just like they were they weren't who they are, but they I.
Look way last week at times.
Yeah, but last week also to me showed a bit of a pivot for them, where like Isaiah likely in the absence of Mark Andrews, steps up. Odell Beckham, who was just a thought or a theory in London, has completely stepped up and he's part of their offense.
It's like ornament for a while, yeah, but no longer.
Keaton Mitchell, who wasn't even part of the offense back then, has be giving them big play. So it's like I see a team that's kind of like getting more powerful at the right time.
I trust their running game, I trust their defense. I think the passing game can be a little erratic here and there. Even though Lamar is playing well, it's just like they're not always on the same page. But that's that's the biggest issue. And against this defense, I don't think it's gonna matter, although who knows. They they It's a big game for both of these divisions. If if if anyone wants any hope of winning the AFC North other than the Ravens, they need the Ravens to lose
this game. And if the Jaguars want to let the Colts and Texans back in, they can do it by losing.
If you're the Jaguars and you're like, look in your schedule, like not if this, if they fall here, you've just been waxed three weeks in a row by the AFC North, I'd.
Be very noivous if I'm a Jaguars fan heading into this game. Let's see Monday Night football. The Philadelphia Eagles, a team licking its wounds at their back to back humble fests at the losses at the hands of NFC. The NFC leaders now travel to Seattle to get the Seahawks mark on the surface, a get right game for the Eagles, but a couple of things, a couple of things playing into effect here you have. They're just Phillies
not playing well right now, especially their defense. So we if you think about the earlier in the season, we were talking up this as just such a complete team, and while the offense has been more or less what we expected, maybe not quite as dynamic, but still more than good enough to get the record they have, it's the defense that's really been killing them their last three games.
They allowed thirty four points to the Bills, very lucky to escape with a win there, forty two points to the Niners in that blowout, they lose thirty three they give up to the Cowboys. So now they get a Seahawks team that quite frankly needs this game at six and seven, they're at home, it's in prime time.
I feel like this is a dangerous spot for the Eagles too. Everything feels a little dangerous for them.
I would say that this, you know, thirty three plus points in three straight games came against two of the best offenses in the league in a Buffalo offense that was on it on point that day. So that's a They've they've been through a gauntlet I do think that this is the kind of coached team, like Sirianni said it over and over this week, we're pissed off.
We're pissed off. Like does that matter?
I think it does because I think this is like a different type of team than eighty five percent of the rest of the league that they'll respond well. But I will say, like just statistically, their defense is not last year's unit at all. I mean, they're thirty first in EPA against the run. If you're Seattle, if you've got a healthy Kenneth Walker, if you've got you know, Charbonnay, you can you can maybe get some sustained some drives there, keep it out of jail and hurts his hand.
They're twenty third the Eagles against against the pass.
It's just not a great defense right now, and it's looked like it they're wanting on that side of the ball, but you are playing like, yes, it's.
A dangerous situation.
But this is a Seattle team that when they went up against a one of the big boys in San Francisco, gave up five hundred and twenty seven yards last week twenty eight points, and it was like an endless rash of like huge plays, explosive plays against the team looks kind of broken on both sides of the ball.
To me, the Seahawks have been struggling, and I hate to go all transitive property because I don't really believe in that stuff. This is a unique case where both teams are kind of collap falling apart at the same time, and they both just played the two same teams exactly in a row, back to back weeks, and the Seahawks were much more competitive in both of those games that that forty nine Ers game was a game. It was
certainly their best performance against the forty nine Ers. I thought Drew Locke actually was solid, like they weren't embarrassing on either side of the ball, whereas the Eagles were Cowboys game. Seahawks defense has been embarrassing for a while. They were in that game, but the Seahawks offense showed up made it a shootout that comes out to the end.
So it's a little dangerous to do that.
But considering how recent the Seahawks and Eagles both just played the forty nine Ers and Cowboys in a row, and that the Seahawks are home, and that they looked better in both of those games and that they have a chance. I think offensively, we don't know if Geno's back as of this taping. We're taping on Thursday, and they hadn't practiced yet, so we'll see. But I think Locke was good enough that you don't think it's going to be a disaster either way at quarterback, Like I
expect this to be a total score fest. I noticed, uh, you know, you said Cess Spice was the only team that's you and Brad Spicer picking games on NFL that I'm the only team that picked the Eagles. They are the only people that picked the Eagles. I mean the Seahawks to win this game, and I'm kind of with you. I'm picking them on game debut. I think they could keep going badly this iss if everyone thinks this is what's going to happen, but no one thinks it nine
out of ten, I don't think. Oh really you think the Seahawks.
I think they are in a good position here. Yeah, and but here here's the thing. If the if the Eagles well coached, I guess they are very talented.
They are well coached. They are they are pissed off, I imagine and humbled. They absolute would it? Would it stun you if they kick butt? No, They're favored by four and a half for a reason, right, so that could happen.
And if they do that, everyone's gonna even though they are a tests to come in the playoffs because we just saw what happened when they face some Juggernauts. But if they get by Seattle and kind of steady the ship, they get the Giants twice sandwiched around Arizona, and they're probably the first seed or a very good chance to be so.
So the sky is not falling and you can get this win. You're a very good shape in Philly. It's fallen right now just because they get it. You know, they're panicking, and I think they got to just get back to their their defense. I don't know if you can fix it all in the back end. I think they can get closer to average instead of being bad. But the offense needs to be elite, and it only
scored one touchdown last week. And the Seahawks have been by far the worst run defense in the league since Week eight according to EPA, and like the Eagles, just seem to refuse to run or run effectively. Maybe that's the Hurts isn't totally healthy, but even the DeAndre Swift factor, Like, why aren't they just mashing teams? And this seems like a perfect team to masch against. These have been two of the worst defenses in the league since Week eight
in general. But I want Philip like Philadelphia. It seems like, especially in this matchup, seems like there are options here. And I'm curious too what Seattle's going to do. I think one thing they might do is bench Jamal Adams because their defense falling apart has coincided very evenly with ben Jamal Adams playing a lot and coming back from injury, and he's just he's just a target every time he's.
You better hide Pete Carroll's wife. If that's what, if that ends up happening.
I think he talked about making some changes, and I was like, well, what changes are they going to make?
Because he's their worst player right now? All right?
Uh yeah, when he got toasted last week watching him doing the sprints trying to catch up, so I think it was deebo it was like, oh my goodness, all right, let's move on. It's time for the first overall pick presented by DraftKings Mark. He got a slam dunk with the first overall pick, does he?
Oh, it's obvious. Okay, Cowboys at Bills, come on, Gregy, Okay, I just didn't know if he would want to protect you know, his his interests. This is my interest. I got it like it. Let me take a look at that means by Greg, I know it is looking at me. The Browns have the best early game. We'll get to that later.
Well, I kind of, first of all, I want this game, but had I gon any if I go in any other direction, it's an extra eight minutes of discussion about why I went other than the Yeah, yess, I'm just doing what I already talk about transitive properties and also that that's how that works. So but I kind of love this game because it's like the Cowboys just did it, Like we were asking them to go win a game against someone and kind of change the way that we
feel about the now. I already thought they were that team. We've been saying that for weeks. It's not like suddenly they're legitimate. But that was a huge victory, and it's like, how do you respond off of that? Because it's like we've got a quarterback who is in the thick of the MVP race. You've got a team right now that has won eight games by twenty plus points this season. And it's not just because of offense. It's not it's because they're getting like incredible support from their defense.
Their special teams is insane.
The only other three teams that have done that in the Super Bowl era to win by eight games by twenty plus points are these three teams. The two thousand and seven Patriots eighteen and one, the ninety nine Rams.
Super Bowl champions all time offense ninety six Packers Great Brett fav Championship year.
They are We just talked about all the problems the Eagles are happy having. It's like to me, I don't care where this all ends up. Like the Cowboys are right now better than the Eagles, and they proved it last week pretty decisively. I think they're far better than the Bills, I really do. I don't like that this is in Buffalo. I think Dallas is a really different team. They they it's on grass. Their losses have come on grass.
Does that matter? I think it does, just.
Not turf, but like actual grass. You well, I don't know about that. I could study that, but like get back to that one earth.
Grass post game paid Management. Earth Grass like they're in western New York, not too far from Woodstock, you know.
Just that's true.
All these things are who Stock is roughly that happened fifty three years ago, fifty four years ago.
But Woodstock, Yeah, I was talking about, Yeah, the olymp biscuit, Woodstock, That's what I was thinking.
Oh, no, I'm thinking of like the one that was actually no, I'm sure I'm with you. Yours was a that one was a disaster.
Don't say yours. Well no, but like if you were that's sixty nine is yours?
No, you're you're refer no, you're referring to like your Woodstock reference is the okay?
I mean, why would you go to just having a good time. Greg brought up the ninety nine one.
That's fair. There's also ninety four when green Day ate the mud. That was a sneaky that.
One had to that's second place, the other one third place, olymp biscuit, third place. I this is the one thing is I think the Bills now are in the same They beat the Chiefs, but we're all like everyone's down on the Chiefs. And it was that came down to controversy at the end, but like Buffalo right here kind of announces to us, yes we're for real, yes, like we still or a super Bowl contender or see you later.
I don't care mathematically what happens, but it's kind of see you later for me because I don't I know, Greg, You're gonna argue they're gonna still be a viable walking if you get wiped here.
I don't know who the Bills are at this point. I don't who they aren't. I think there somewhere in between. It's a good game between two game teams and like you said, the Cowboy if they get wiped though, if.
Dallas comes in and drops a bomb, then like, but I don't think that's gonna happen.
I'll see.
It surprised me on two parts because the Cowboys, as riding high as they are, this really sets up well.
Unless Dallas is one of those all time.
Great teams, which I'm not ready to go that far, but they are performing like one of those teams to come down a little bit. The Bills obviously, once again, it's almost even though it doesn't eliminate them, it's gonna have the feel of a desperate kind of playoff game type vibe for them, and it's a it's interesting that you're gonna get a Bills team that, uh, they're two point underdog or two point favorites actually, despite the Cowboys.
Being as hot as they are.
So you people feel the similar way that we feel that the Bills are dangerous in the spot. I'm thinking if they do find a way, the rest of the AFC is gonna go oh no, yes, I agree with that after all the hand ringing, and deservedly so, because Buffalo has stubbed its toe time and time again.
As Eric Roberts knows, if.
The Bills come out of this game with a win, they are the team in the AFC that suddenly scares me more than any other team in an uncertain conference near the top and quickly.
I think it's like if you get the version of Josh Allen that we've been getting the last couple of weeks, and you get it again and they beat Dallas, like that's what makes me think, uh oh.
Yeah, I'm Their offense is awesome. I think they're figuring it out. I think the offensive line is playing well. I think Josh Allen if I was doing QB Index, like Nick, I'd probably have it. This is tough, you know, Josh Allen be no lower than three for this entire season, and just on a game the game Bass, I might take them right now over anyone, I think because his highs are just are just higher, and I think he's
had a better season. It's really exciting to have him against Dak, who's, you know, right now the MVP favor. But they're getting variety in their offense, James Cook being used more as a receiver. I think they realize what they have in Kincaid, like they have enough right now on offense. They're using Allen for the design run game. I think they'll put up points in this game. I think it'll be really exciting. But defense matters too, And I just look at their defense and I'm like, do
they have a personnel to do it? Because it just feels like Sean McDermott's cooking up different things and it can work for a couple quarters at a time, but they're just not that good. And then Micah Hyde is hurt again. Damar Hamlin is probably coming in this week and they need the Damar Hamlin. It's interesting because Damar Hamlin. The only talk about him has obviously been about what happened last year, and okay, he's been in active this year.
They need Damar Hamlin, the football player back from where he was before the injury in this game. I think because Taylor Rap's been you know, kind of a disaster as a free agent signing, Mikeah Hyde is out, I think Hamlin's going to be playing in this game. And they had a nice safety group before, and I think it would really help, you know, if he can be the player that he used to be, and we have to imagine they don't see him as that player this year or else he would have been on the field
this year. This was a guy who was, you know, a fill in every week. He was starting last year and making a difference. Epanes is also hurt, so I worry about that matchup. I'm a little surprised you mentioned the Bills are favored in this game. The money line is minus one twenty five for the Bills. That's a
little crazy. I've I've gone back and forth all week just thinking who am I going to pick for game to view, and I still land on the Cowboys because to me, they're just Still I've picked the Bills to win I think every single week this year. I and
yet I still think it's such a mismatch. Their offensive line versus the Bills defensive line, Jake Ferguson getting it done versus whatever's happened in the middle of the field, Like they just have more answers offensively cooks, like it's all happening for Cowboys if they run the ball better, and so I just think they're they're better equipped to win thirty seven to thirty three.
I was gonna say, because does in this feel almost like a mortal lock that Josh Allen has at least four touchdowns in this?
I think it'll be a great game. I'll I'll tell you about immortal lock. Oh is he gonna do it?
I against all the logic that was just voiced, it is logical. Yes, Buffalo is going to change their season and they're going to take this game. I'm locking the Bills. I don't care about the spreads. I don't care about the money. Their favorite I don't. I just don't care what it is.
I'm kind of I don't know that was my favorite thing does take a little of it, but I like it.
What I mean, their favorites in the game. So it's not overly you know, out on a limb, but for a lot that's fine.
I think the general like football watching population would be impressed if the Bills pulled this off.
It's not just Hay There's going to absolutely blow out the Bills. Yeah, it's like they enter a different stratosphere. Yeah. I do think there's a.
Place in between where it's a great game and the cow and the Bills fall just short and it's really painful. Again, but that they're seven and seven and they have three games left that they can win all three of those games and then they'd be in there.
They're also seven and seven.
Yeah, And the one thing that this is starting to matter at this point, there's not a billion games left. They lose the tiebreaker to the Bengals, the Broncos, the Texans, the Colts, and the Steelers, so.
They might not need to worry about it if they go win the division, which is very much on the table. Even if they lose this game, get to ten, you probably get to you right though.
The one thing in the on their side here is that ten feels like it's going to be a magic number.
We've seen it.
We've seen eleven and five teams not make the playoffs, but it feels like the way it's shaping up right now, ten should get there. So you got to win three or four and if you win this one, the Dolphins are gonna start sweating. So they said, man, is this the vision safe? All right, let's take a break and when we come back, we will get into more of the Draft Down.
The Draft Kings Sportsbook now with code atn new customers can bet five dollars on NFL Action to score one hundred and fifty instantly in bonus bets only on DraftKings sports Book with code a T and the crown is yours?
All right, welcome back, and yes, the Saturday Showdown is back this week with an exclusive triple header live on NFL Network.
It's a good one too.
You got the Vikings Begles at one one pm Eastern, followed by Steelers Colts and Broncos Lions in primetime Saturday, December sixteenth, only on NFL Network and streaming on NFL Plus.
And no one told the NFL Network Saturday is Rosenthal Christmas because my family.
I mean, what's a better greg than three games on a Saturday or Greg.
The NFL was told that and specifically decided to lay out ruin Rosen thought Christmas not happening thrills that. Yeah, we're to get ready for next season. Here's what I'm gonna do that today.
I'm gonna rewatch Colts, Patriots, the the Europe game at six thirty in the morning, and then watch all three of these and not leave my house training.
Yeah. Yeah, it makes sense the body and mind. I will do what they tell me. Greg, you're up.
I'm an interesting spot here when I feel like I've never had on the show.
Okay, okay, it's done like fifteen hundred episodes.
Because the game I want to watch the most, and this is rare. The two games I want to watch the most in the early both involve your teams. But the Browns, you know, it's been uncertain whether whether they are available, whether they are marks team. That is the game I want to watch the Moons, but you should and are they allowed? Are they available?
You are allowed? Okay, that's my that's an early Christmas gift. Ro Christmas, I'm taking Browns. Can I just say yes? My concern in terms of coverage, are you going to be watching the Browns on on Sunday. Now are you going to be watching Bill's Cowboys on Sunday? Well, that's in the late window. I mean a little tricky. There's multiple windows, but I'll I won't be on a late window.
Greg and I also both watch our games on like a on a lesser technology. I actually won't be in the office during the early window for the first time all season. So no matter what I do, it won't affect Greg on any level unless I start textingdn't It wouldn't affect me. Talk about for you in the program, your program, I mean, I will be doing what I you know, on these sunnage you got to try to do what you want no matter what.
But he says to take it.
I'm taking Bears at Browns because I really want to watch this game and it's a bad early window. Jets Dolphins is also very intriguing, but I don't want to take that from you from Browns are favored by three. The money line is one sixty six, and it's another game that's very tough to pick because there's a lot
of reasons to like the Bears. Right now, we've talked about the Browns a lot, and I'm sure we will more in this preview, but the Bears really have put together a great stretch of defensive play.
For a long time, I kept.
Saying, Mattterberfluss, defensive coach, are you showing me anything on defense? All these draft picks you took in the second showing me anything on deefen blah blah blah blah blah blah. Since Week five, fifth and EPA, their defensive backs, I thought you saw in last week's game against Detroit, really are great in terms of their communication. Kyler Gordon's playing well, Jalen Johnson's playing well. They mix up coverage as well. Montes Sweat has added a little heat. Overall, it really
looks like quite a good defense. And they're not great applying pressure, but Flacco's really faced no pressure in the last couple of weeks.
He's been protected well.
There's been a lot of injuries up front for the Browns and they've done an incredible job surviving them.
You wouldn't know it.
Bill Callahan is again in the greatest off you know, offensive line coach in the league. Sefanski's done a nice job coaching and putting a nice group around him. But I'm really curious about that matchup. This Bears defense has been playing very well. Does Joe Flacco make a few more mistakes. Does the Cinderella story offensively for them come back to Earth? I think it does, and I think it's a low scoring game, and I'm interested to see what happens here.
Yeah, I mean EPA wise, the Browns passing attack, you know, pre Flacco was one of the worst in the league, and it's obviously there's an uptick. I'm at the point with the Browns where like to your like the Bill Callahan thing is masked over some insane injury situations, like they've lost Jederick Wills their left tackle. They lost en Jack Conklin, the right tackle, Dwan Jones, the very promising rookie tackle has now been put on IR post surgery.
Garn Christian, their new left tackle, is ranked seventy fifth out of eighty four tackles per PFF. Their right tackle, James Hudson, is eighty four out of eighty four. So at some point, like you know, unless you can continue to mass this over, you've got a problem. They also on defense, like you know, not to do the injury thing. But like now we even covered this, Yeah, we've talked about a lot of other teams is being extremely banged up.
Like the Brown's already lost. We get it, like maybe the most necessary running back in the league for the team that he's on. They've lost three quarterbacks. They've worked the way through that their entire backfield is actually banged up right now. Kareem Hunt is in and out of practice. Jerome Ford is an in and out of practice. Like they signed Grant Heelpit, a really promising starish safety to an extension last weekend, and then he just immediately goes on IR during the game.
The game they made the transaction. Well, it's just I mean, you could tell he was done. He's out for the year. We hadn't mentioned that he's gone.
He might make the Pro Bowl, and he has announce of his questionable return and then put him on IR.
You you could tell right away he was see you later.
Aggaranko has been a really like productive pass rusher behind Garrett and the rest of that crew and is used really creatively.
He's gone. It's like, there's they lost three new defensive players and for the year last week. So I give it.
I give them, like Stefanski and the Browns in general, like a lot of credit because just again, like in that locker room after that game last week, like there aren't that many Browns teams, Like I think they just
stuck through together through so many stormy situations. But I think you could have looked at this schedule down two months ago and thought the Bears will be that game that we that we get back on track with it for if we if we had a tough week against you know, these previous up opponents.
And it's like they're a totally different team right.
Now that Derek Bazerker right, And so I think it's a I think it's a real weird situation for the Browns.
I this gives me no pleasure to say it, but I think the Browns are ripe to be the team in clear playoff positioning that falls out, and I like.
The Bears to win this game. It's a coin flip, but I would take the back I do.
I also believe the Bears are in good position here. They're just playing really well on both sides of the ball right now. And that's a credit, just like your credits the fancy to Ebra flus is finally finding some type of semblance of an identity with this team and the thing about a Flacco, and it's been a good story.
This is his third start, right, yes, but yeah, if the offensive line continues to crumble with injuries and the defense is not what it once was earlier in the season, I do feel like there's some smoke and mirrors going on with the Browns right now, and eight and five I think could easily be you know, eight and seven going into week eighteen, and I just got kind of a bad feeling about how their season.
Is going to co mean maybe, but I would say, like you could get a Texans team minus c. J.
Stroud. They played the Jets after that, then they play the Bengals, So it's.
Not those games are winnable, including this one, because as for all the injuries that happened, and a lot of those happened during the game, so they were already without them.
Last week they were outstanding. They were peak Brown.
I know the final score doesn't make you look at it, but then once they watch a game, I realized, oh wow, they dominated the Jaguars offense and they could absolutely flummex fields who hits a couple on scripted plays and is running well. But like if you told me they win this game seventeen fourteen, that would not surprise me at all either.
Okay, let's move on the Buccaneers, eh, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are you know, they're frisky, they try their best. I think they're they're scraping the ceiling of their ability this season and now they have a big test if you want to, because I think Mark, you and I both believe the Bucks will be the team that comes out of the NFC South. Well, if you go to Lambeau and beat the Packers, I'm loving it. I'm loving your chances of doing that. Now, it's gonna be tough
because it's Packers by three and a half here. And I think with Green Bay we talked about it. That Giants game disappointing, yes, because it really slowed down what
looked like a freight train that was building up. But I also looked at that Giants game as they were in a weird spot on the road in prime time with Tommy cutlet Mania going off, and you know, you get off to a little bit of a slow start on the road, and then they were able to recorrect and then they just didn't take care of business at
the end of the game and they get beat. I don't think that didn't feel like the type of loss to me, and I could be wrong, because they can now revert back to their early season for him, and that's happened a lot in this league this year, where you think you figure out a team and then something else happens. I think it's more likely that that was a bump in the road rather than this hot streak's over.
So I feel really good about the Packers. Is he going to do it? In fact? Greg? Greg, Yes, I must thank you. You were there for me.
In my great time of need, when I was a fragile baby bird who had fallen from the nest. You lifted me up, oh boy, healed my broken wing, provided me shelter at a time of great anguish.
But now with my body healed and mind clear, I must go on my own.
Just know, Chief Mighty Unk, I will not forget what you did for me on this long journey into the great unknown. I locked the cheeseheads of Wisconsin at home.
Mm hmm. It's a tough moment, you know.
We we flew so high together in every mentor's life. The greatest wish you can have is to see that little hatchling grow up and and fly away. Chief Mighty Hunk, be a man picker.
Thank you.
And yet it's it's painful. It's painful because you missed. You missed those those times, glorious two weeks.
That three nothing win, watching that field goal split the uprights, watching great Joe.
Get us over the top, that this bump we have as Mark looked on disgustedly, I'll always remember it.
Speaking of the lock competition, let's check out the standings.
Oh yes, there's a reason why I rode with Chief Mighty Honk, because he's thirteen and one this season.
The West Brothers bad loss.
Last week, Nick got a little too high into his character study and laughed at the Jets, so they had to humble him ten and four. And now me and the cesstag locked at the bottom at seven and seven.
This is the peak.
I need to take a picture of this because it's gonna get uglier. This is this is Chief Mighty.
I'll throw one thing out there, Chief Mighty Honk, And this is not part of that monologuecause this would be great disrespect to the Mighty Chief that that Lions game was a little dicey against the Saints late, and then there was a three to nothing game with the team of eighten and I'm wondering if if maybe you're due for a stomach.
Well, no kidding, it's mostly luck. Like a lot half these games come down to the end. Thirteen and one, we'll take. Well, if that's luck, Mark thirteen and one. I don't think it's luck at all. I think it just pure skill.
I think it's quite a bit of luck. I do you guys agree with me about Love though?
That?
And the Packers? Yes? Like did that? Did you come out of that loss? Greg? Like concerned about them coming back down to Earth.
I'm always concerned about their defense. I never trust it. I'm not going to be concerned in this game because they're playing the Bucks. They're only favored by three and a half. A little surprising actually that it's not low. The money lines won seventy five. I just think, like, how are you letting Tommy DeVito run on you with? With these Reid options and saquon they collapsed defensively. They were really disappointed. You can't expect Love to be elite
every week. But they missed Christian Watson and Aaron Jones when they're not out there. I mean, Aaron Jones is back at practice. He's been at practice though, so that doesn't guarantee anything. Watson is out of practice still with that hamstring from a few weeks ago that he had, and Agy Dillon's out of practice. I assume he'll be fine because he finished that game. Don Tavian Wis is out of practice. There's not anything about this team that's special enough that I'm just like, chalk it up, you
gotta wake up defense. Who knows the Bucks have been running the ball surprisingly well with Rashad White for about a month now, and like I'm always worried about any team that can run a little bit against it.
No, no, no, I think it's a very good lock. Actually, Packers defense, it has been a mess.
But I did find interesting that this was the week that like, and I know it's because the way that game ended, but like every time I go on to X or anywhere, it's like everyone suddenly this week is ready to throw Joe Barry off the side of a building in Wisconsinant it was like it's just everyone everyone's talking about it, like this week and it's like they've kind of just been this defense outside of you know, they've gotten There were a couple of games where like this,
the pass rush was spicy with Rashaun Gary, They've been this, but like on the love thing like this is a young, super young player surrounded by like a bunch of young wide receivers and you and a young tight end. It's like, I don't have a problem with a little bit of ebb and flow. It wasn't like what we saw in those really well coached games previously was just that to the end of time, you know.
But so yes, I think they'll bounce back. I mean, I think this is a good luck the Giant.
I I do too, But the Giants did a good job making him hold the ball a little longer, confusing him with all those blitz is NonStop the Bucks. Todd Bowles loves the blitz too, So when one plan works against you, you're gonna keep seeing it again.
And that's a real test where even though they have a you.
Don't let any I don't care who it is, any NFC sal team come into your buildings.
One thing though, especially a banged up when the field and the Bucks have been awesome on the road.
They've been a better team on the road than at home. Come on the Bucks here, So here's what the Bucks are like.
At one point last week, like Mike Hevin, Mike Evans was held at eight yards, they were outgained by the Falcons by one hundred and forty four. And then Baker Mayfield leads him on a wacky game when you drive on.
One of his worst games of the year. Too. They are they've been doing this like all year, and they're very banged up.
Carlton Davis, Viavea, Chris Godwin, William goldst and Devin Waite, Ryania, all.
Those guys are starters, all out of practice.
All right, let's move on snakes to me and yes, I will grab the Jets at Dolphins Dolphins game getting eight and a half here, it's in Miami and guess what else it is.
It's the Nance Roma Wolfson game. That's interesting. Well was that set a long time ago?
No, it's just that Cowboys Bills is on Fox. Yeah, that's the best early game. I kind of agree, so agree.
This is really interesting from both sides.
We'll start with Miami because just the devastating Monday Night losses devastating as a loss can be for a team that's doing as well as they are this season. They and what are they They're nine to four right now, But to blow that game in historic fashion at home to the Titans, I mean, it's not like you got picked off by a superpower late. It really leads to questions both about their defense, which had been improving as
the season went along. I'm not overly concerned about the defense, but yes, plenty of questions about this offense, which again.
Listen, it's fun.
Yeah, put up fifty points in six hundred yards against the Washington Commanders, but then he cann't do anything against Tennessee. And now you get a Jets team that defensively, they've really as the season's gone on, gotten better and better, and they are I think while earlier in the season they weren't playing totally up to expectations. I think the Jets, especially against the pass, are gonna be very tough for Tua to handle. He wasn't very good on Black Friday
against the Jets. They had that crazy fail Mary that kind of put that game away more than anything, and now they are going to be tested the Miami offense to once again say week, we're not just somebody that beats up on on the you know, the poor kids, Like we can go and beat up this Jets defense
and embarrass them. And on the New York side, it's right there now, by the way, not the playoffs because they're still they're five and eight, But in terms of intrigue around this team, if they went to Miami and upset the Dolphins, which I haven't, I think they have a chance here Aaron Rodgers could come back Christmas Eve. And I know that still doesn't matter too uh in terms of talking Lombardi teams.
They updated that at all though, because I do wonder if it didn't happen at practice. He hasn't really been in practice, and like they just go over there. They had a setback when that said it.
We haven't heard anything.
Yeah, they have been saying all along that he can be medical medically cleared to play on Christmas Eve if they are six and eight and mathematically alive. I think you see Rogers because knowing the way that team operates, in the way he operates.
Next week, Yeah, we'll get past this first. But like I I like the spot. But that's what makes this game otherwise interesting. I think this is a great week for this game to happen.
I mean, I think like the you're like, the offense is not going to be the same, and they weren't the same. Losing Connor Williams at center matters a lot. There were already some issues between Tua and the center.
Quarterback has changed, you know, earlier in the year, but losing your center matters on an offensive line where he's calling them the protections and everything else they've they've he's never been the same to h when Toront Armstead's not in the lineup and those two guys are gone right now, it's like, we'll see what happens with Toron arms so
there's a slight chance he could play. Apparently, Tyreek Hill is banged up Devon a Chain did not practice as a Wednesday, So it's like they're they're they're missing guys right now. And I think the two upper is like precise and productive as he's been, Like you start taking pieces away around him, I get concerned. But I will say in that Black Friday game, they ran for one hundred and sixty seven on the Jets, and Hill and Waddle combined for seventeen catches for two hundred and sixteen
yards and two touchdowns. So it's like what they do well worked against the Jets on Black Friday when they won thirty four to thirteen.
Guys, I'm just saying that game was accomplished.
I think that was a three point game at halftime before the fail Mary. It wasn't like a it wasn't a total blood letting like they've done to other teams.
I just don't. I don't think it's gonna happen here. I think it'd be surprised.
I am shocked by an eight and a half point spread in this game. The money lines minus four twenty five. I'm with you if I'm a dolphinsan. I'm just hoping to get out of here with a win. Forget about winning by eight and a half. This is a great time for this game for the Jets because of the injury you mentioned Connor Williams, because of their offense showing some cracks.
They need to run the ball.
They ran the ball really well against the Titans. That was the thing that kind of got lost in that game.
The whole game.
He ran against one of the best run defenses in the league. On paper, and they got away from it a few times inside the ten and Tua made some big mistakes and they just don't operate the same without Tyreek. So him being Tyreek is as important as any player status. This week, I kind of expect him to play because he finished out the game and that usually is a great indication. But man, their lying without Connor Williams like it. It's kind of caving in. And yeah, we haven't even
mentioned Dak. Wilson is easily coming off the best game of his career, and I know.
He's on purpose by me because I've seen too much of Zach Wilson get it to get to buy in off that game.
But it's better than him coming off another wretched game. I felt different, though, it felt different even than Bengals. Now, he absolutely could come back. I hear what you're saying, but I do you have heard quarterbacks say it before, Trent Dilver, all these others like man, after you get bench, sometimes you do come back and you feel like the weight of the world's off your shoulders because the worst
thing's already happened. And Zach literally said that to one of his teammates bench three times before the game.
I guess you're right. It didn't work the other times.
Maybe there's been a lot of he's been so inconsistent in his career that any Jet fan that's looking at that and saying, Okay, now we're gonna get that version is overly optimized.
I hear you.
The reason I liked it was it was more about the decisions were quicker and he just looked more like a real quarterback versus just hitting some scheming up plays and hitting some trick shots, which he also did and he he can do. I think the matchup is tough. The Dolphins defense, despite last week, I think is still very good. But I'm impressed Brees saw. I noticed one thousand and sixty yards for the season yards from scrimmage.
Garrett Wilson is actually on pace for more yards this year than last year, So I do feel good.
And the Jets defense, after saying wow.
We're a little closer to just good earlier in the year, is up to third in d v A defensively, which you could passes the eye test. They the things you thought you had that we're going to be around are now I still feel good about that.
For the Jets, handsome Hank and Dolphins fans out there, because you know my feelings about the Dolphins. I'm going to let you know right now that if you beat up on the Jets on Sunday, you will hurt me.
Because I do.
You're backing this yet as much as I think it's a bad idea, Listen, you're only a live once. Uh Let's get Anna Rodgers on the field Christmas Eve, Let's just do it. Screw it, screw it. Just put them on the field. See what happens. Maybe maybe magic, but you got to win this game first. And Dolphins fans, I.
Really think I am most tempted to bring out the rain maker for the Jets, but I'm not. I'm not going to do that with Sack Wells close to Christmas. I like the Dolphins. I guess if I'm forced to take it, I'd take the Dolphins to win.
But man, I don't. I don't feel good about it. All right? Week two? All right, here we go, Here we go, Greg, you're up? Okay? I will take the Giants at Saints. Early.
Saints are favored by five and a half. The money lines to fifty for the Saints. Again, another one where I'm like really, they're favored by that much against a team that's been playing better than them lately.
Defensively, the Giants really have turned it around.
Tommy DeVito gets all the attention, you understandably, but this was statistically the worst defense in the league through about seven or eight weeks, which is really surprising. With Dexter Lawrence and Kvon and they've been playing much better. They're tenth in EPA since Week eleven.
He's the highest graded Dexter Lawrence defensive player in the league right now. Yeah, I mean it makes sense to me.
The two All Pro defensive tackles are pretty clearly Donald and Dexter Lawrence that they are the two. Bit Donald's having a great run right now too, but Ojalari, all of them, Deontay Banks are picked. They're playing well, and a defense that's playing well and can throw some blitzes at this offensive line which is is getting confused. Like the reason the best theory I think was for Derek
Carr and Eric McCoy getting into it. Their center was that And I heard it on the Saints Bock Party podcast and I think it's right after I watched it, was that. I think Derek Carr just called out the wrong middle line but he's been doing that all year where he audibles to the wrong play and I think he called out the wrong middle linebacker before the play. And I think McCoy, you know, got on him for that because sometimes that's the center's job. Something that he's like,
you keep switching into plays not knowing what. No, but he pointed and saw it and it makes sense. And then that that exact player the mic that he thought was it goes right off the middle because basically he's changing the line protection. This has been an issue for a car I think changed correctly right and changes it incorrectly, and then.
It's middle of where the center gets so mad.
There could be a lot of reasons, because I think it's an extremely frustrated I think the players. I don't really remember an offense where the players are are so visibly frustrated when they should be so much better and they've had injuries and stuff like that. But I mean,
it's just a bad vibe. I think, to do what Dan said last week, it's just it's a ViBe's off because the Giants have the best vibes in the league, right Because there I want I would have taken this game simply because of Tommy DeVito, because I thought, save the season for Brian Dable.
Oh yeah, Tommy Cutlets. Yeah, on the road. We'll see what happens.
And the Saints have been pretty topsy turvy is the defense this year? If Tommy Tommy Cutlets goes down and balls out at the Superdome, we got a sensation and we got the six and eight Giants with the pulse.
I take them in a second over the Saints in the playoffs. Who are you taking this game? I having a hard time with this one. This is a hard one.
I want to take the Saints, but I don't know I'm taking Giants twenty. I think I would take the Giants.
Well, there's been so much like negativity, not just I guess within the Saints, but around the Saints. The discourse around them that you you would think they're you know, one and twelve right now, but they're not.
They they they're in, they're tied for first.
So the idea that the Saints and they just come off a twenty seven to six win, like the idea that the Saints can't beat the Giants at home, like the.
Cold they're getting Rashid Shaheed back sounds like and Taysom Hill, and I think that's Taysom Hill is quietly we talked that I've been having a pretty monster important season for them when they've needed someone, and they.
Really missed them last week.
I mean one of the reasons that they're like annoyed and it's not just a car thing, but like they're passing game in general has been such a mess. He's had four games where he's finished the contest with one hundred less than one hundred and thirty yards passing.
This isn't even the car from the past.
I think it's a tough matchup though for the Saints Stevens, who is just bleeding yardage against the run and right now last week, I mean, Tommy DeVito's running like the Colin Kaepernick forty nine ers offense, just like a bunch of Reid option where he runs for ten yards every play in Saquon looks great, so a great.
I think they're a pretty good running team.
They've they've found something on offense and it's mostly the run game that matches up well.
That such a good year and that yes, I mean that terrible fumble at the end kind of marred another you know, productive.
Game for him were great, But what what makes Tommy DeVito more popular? Like among primarily with Saquon, but the rest of the guys that like everyone forgot about that fumble because of what happened. It's like he he like essentially rescued what would have been like a like a terrible like goat scenario for.
Good point for I saw Kvon by the way, like right after the game ended, and everybody was like celebrating big time with DeVito going up to him.
Kevan unless kind of brushed him off.
It's like, really, man, Yeah, go check out the footage, Go check out the all twenty two on Kvon after the game.
Maybe they had a one on one moment later on that wasn't.
Maybe uh maybe Tommy d missed the mic pick up and uh Kvan was on the sideline and he was angry about it.
I don't know. That's mysterious.
All right, let's keep move and I mean move, Mark, You're up all right picking it early, There's not a lot to pick from here. I'm going to go Chiefs at Patriots. An interesting inflection point.
For the Chiefs going after the Pats this early like.
Well, there's only yeah, I've limited selections unless you want me to take the one of the two other lates.
Okay, I think I found out what the shook game is and my main strategy is to avoid the Panthers, and I can.
You know what it is.
Obviously, nobody could watch the Patriots, including Patriots fans right now.
I can't watch the Chiefs anymore. They're so frustrating. They're very frustrating.
They're very frustrating, and it's like, you know, they actually lead the league with fifty two offensive penalties, so I know everything came down to this conversation about like what happened at the end of that game against the Bills. But they've been hurting themselves all season and it's like, you're they're not gonna I don't know at this point. I'm not like looking at a team that's going to
go figure it out. I especially don't like that I Saepa Chaco did not practice again on Thursday with a shoulder injury.
Donovan Smith did not practice, Like there are some issues here.
The best part about this is you're playing a Patriots offense that is the worst in the league.
You are.
A little bit but I like, I think that the Chiefs defense hasn't is still you can count on them, I do. I mean, I think the Patriots defense has been good, So it may not be like it may be a close game, but there are a lot of issues swirling in New England. We learned this week from our friend Tom Currn. It wasn't like a report, but he mentioned on a show that like Robert Kraft, the owner, is already decided to fire Bill Belichick after the season.
And then it came to after that Cults Patriots game overseas.
Which we which is funny because we had talked about a lot of the reporting and the vibes around the Patriots at the time. Or is like Craft really wanted that game so for them to lay an egg there, that's interesting. We actually have Belichick again, He's being asked all the time now like what's your future with the team, and he's taking on true to form a Belichickian type demeanor.
In press conference AFC with this game that the States would playing Cancers City, does it seem like a higher stakes game than Kansasity?
I mean, he was also asked directly, did you have an agreement with Robert Kraft that there will be a party of ways at the end of the season directly, and that he also said we're on to Kansas City for that. So they are they're not afraid to ask tough questions, uh to about Bill Belichick right now, it's
it's a little it's a little depressing. And look, Kraft could always change his mind, but that makes sense that that was their thinking at that point, that that they had already kind of made their decision and that they're just gonna play out the string year and they're not going to fire him in the middle of the season.
That makes sense.
Crazy, really crazy, And you know what else is crazy like and I know Patrick Hoolmes, these guys get asked questions and then they respond and then you have to be able to all, right, is this an actual feeling he has or he's just you know, the media is taking turning into a bigger story. You know, he's talking about Kadarius Tony about what he needs to do after his latest major foul up lining up off sides and everything, and the headline out there was, you know, a message
to Kadarius Tony just be you. You know, basically the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs have a wide receiver that is this ineffective and mistake prone. They have no choice but to kind of keep him in the mix because they don't have anybody. And I know his role has lessened, but the desperation around the Chiefs, I think it's notable. They kind of need Tony and everyone else to contribute to somehow get this thing back on track.
Right.
They were featuring him early in that game. He made a couple of plays, he had a big drop.
He's talented. They just he won the Super Bowl basically last year. They just don't have It's not like they're magic answers.
They have the players that they have, and some of them need to step up, like especially when Pacheck go's out. I think this matchup is a little tricky for them because the Patriots have an elite run defense. They're the best run defense in the league for about three months. They're not very good stopping the pass, which is so bizarre that that would match up well with the Chiefs. I tend to think that Mahomes will find a way to pick them apart. It's not a great secondary, and
that they'll do enough. But the Patriots defense will generally make you throw the ball because they're gonna stop you running.
And they generally give up big play.
So maybe this is a chance for Patrick Mahomes to pass Bailey Zappi in touchdowns of over twenty yards this season, because right now they're tied.
They each have one. I mean, they each have won. But the Mahomes is steep ball stats are ridiculous.
They cannot throw the ball deep. The Chiefs are favored by seven appts interests. I saw that number was bigger earlier in the week, so people are actually going towards the the money lines minus three seventy five for the Chiefs.
I don't know.
It wouldn't surprise me if the if the Patriots cover here at least, I don't think they'll win, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's it's a little dicey. If the Chiefs do not move Heaven and Earth this march in April and may to help Patrick Mahomes, that is malpractice by Beach and company.
I mean, his his cap number becomes like they're they're becoming one of those teams with some top heavy.
They should they should just where it's like a year and then just push it back into the twenty seventies.
They will, they will renegotiate. It's kind of the NFL equivalent of it. All right, Mark hit another one.
Uh, Houston and Tennessee. Uh, this would have been I get this. This matchup for Houston is is is not It's not the team they were.
Like C J.
Stroud is still in concussion protocol. I would be at this point very surprised if he. If he plays, they Nico Collins is hurt. Tank Dell is out for.
The col This is a status out of practice.
So possible, but like he's not gonna be one hundred percent. Dalton Schultz has banked up their tackle. Titus Howard has banged up Jarremie Tunzel did not practice. Will Anderson did not practice on Wednesday. So this is your team and you're playing a Tennessee squad that like in Tennessee that's they've been very good at home. Will Levis is totally watchable. Uh.
You know, Derrick Henry is still Derrick Henry.
And so I don't like the spot for Houston that's sitting there in that seven and six world trying to hang on and get by life without their star Young quarterback. I think one little note to this game. This feels absurd to me by the Titans. It's kind of it's delicious, it's delicious, but it's it's kind of like I'm surprised the NFL like greenlit this. Of course, the Tennessee Titans
were the Houston Oilers and mood in the mid nineties. Yes, I think at were at the age where some younger people don't know that like that with some of these moves that happened in the nineties, they just don't know. But like they you know, the classic Houston Oilers uniforms. The Titans were greenlit to wear them a couple times this year, and they did earlier in the season. And they're now going to go into here they're going to host Houston, who are the Texans and started as their
own franchise. I get that, but like wearing their Oilers' uniforms, it's a disgrace this. Houston, remember asked the University of Houston to not wear those essentially same so they do care. No matter what they say, they do care about those uniforms. Being warned by someone else and your opponent is wearing them against you on the road, I think who loses.
Who loses the fans, The fans that have been around and been following Houston Professional Football from the you know, love you Blue days that fell in love with football with those teams. Now they have to be against the team wearing it. That's like, imagine that happened with the Browns. Mark how disgusted and furious you'd be. And I am totally with you. That is absolutely you don't do anything to antagonize fans that lost their team because of business decisions by ownership.
That's disgraceful.
Yeah, but it's the same ownership. I know, Bud Adams is dead, but his daughter, Amy Adams Strunk, who's very well respected around the league and has certainly had a different tone than her her father, who I think people had more mixed feelings about.
But she did this.
You know, it's ultimately this is what do you mean? Yeah, but here's what I'm getting to. It's like, this is ultimately an ownership decision.
So yeah, she knows how much it's disgraceful.
Yeahs say one who cares like she's maybe respected, But like that's I'm just prefacing it to getting to that that like she knows how much Houston hates her father and she's sticking it to them.
Ultimately, there is part of I mean, that's the truth, Greg. That is as petty as a guest.
So the NFL just you think they said, hey, great idea vengeful.
I think the bigger thing is they want to wear the uniform and all that and stuff, but they know what they're doing doing it against the Texans. So it's a little bit of sticking it to him, don't you think.
But that's the thing, like, you're not sticking it to the players, of the coaching staff, of the tech and just sticking it to the fans, the fans who have been loyal to the brand of the NFL.
It's been uh it it can't happen. It's quite a move. Can't happen? It is it is, It is quite a move.
I hate this game for the Texans for everything you just said, Mark. I think the Texans are in a lot of trouble. They were without a pulse against the Jets, and I know they were in the rain, and they were, you know, dealing with injuries happening during the game, including to Stroud and Collins going out in the first drive.
But I don't see them scoring points.
I don't like Davis Mills, but he's got a lot of experience, that's all. It's you're not thrown in one of these backups.
We've never heard as backup who's thrown to. Even C. J. Stroud couldn't move the ball with the cast of characters that they had last week.
Well, he's going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, although they're coming off a game where they didn't well against under But yes, he's throwing to Noah Brown, Xavier hud no chance, John Metchi, maybe Robert Woods.
It's tough.
And the Texans linebackers, the word is out how much you can just pick on them?
Uh in coverage.
I did like how much they're using Taj Spears and Henry together.
I mean Spears.
They have like three players on offense, Spears, Henry and Hopkins, and they've they're leaning into it like Spears now leads all rookies in yards from scrimmage. He is a really good player there. They can be a good running too. I give the Texans a chance here, but the Titans are favored by three. That's not surprising to me. And the money lines minus. I do like the Titans like you guys.
All right, let's take a break and then we'll finish out the draft and welcome back. It is the week fifteen preview show in bulk. If you're just joining us, it'd be weird podcast. But we are wrapping up the draft, and up next is Greg Rosenthal. I need a late game here, Okay, And what did I say I'm taking? I guess I'll take Commanders Rams. Rams favored Commandos by six and a half. I kind of am regretting this choice just because of strategy purposes.
It's too late. The money lines minus three or five. How about the Rams being like heavy favorites here in uh week fifteen. I mean Matt Stafford could throw for four hundred yards against the second Yeah, that is the thought. I don't know.
It is like, I know they've played really well lately, but I still think they're a team that's overachieving defensively. Washington has the extra rest, they have talent, They're yeah, they're they're capable. I think of of making this a good game, I certainly would still best stop with Greg Rosenthal, would it be?
Although you know to be you know who's got the rest Extra. I mean just gonna We're gonna get it anyways, So yeah, might as well Brandon, yea, make some money.
Put it in a little a little window like analytics on the little window rest this year, how they're doing versus the spread.
And save it for the next episode of Rest Stop. Yeah, there you go.
Maybe I'll ask uh Sam schwartz Stein tonight on the Thursday night recap. By the way, he's uh, you know, the the guy who pops up in the corner if you're watching Prime Vision, which is on in my house.
That's Sam and he's gonna be a person'll be at the game.
The Rams defense, though, has been as good a coaching job to me as as the offense. And the offense has got because just because of the guys that they're doing with, they play with their hair on fire. Michael Hoyt playing well lately, but Kobe Turner and Aaron Donald. I noticed this this week really surprised me. Our top two in the league in terms of pass rush win rate from defensive tackles. Yeah, Aaron Donald, you would expect that.
And Aaron Donald's on a heater, by the way. He is back to being like defensive player of the year type Aaron Donald the last five or six weeks.
I mean, he was good all year, but he's back on fire.
And Kobe Turner's a mid round rookie who hasn't got a lot of heat here, and so that they're getting good contribution with Ernest Jones at linebacker who had that big Super Bowl performance a couple of years ago, is playing really well of them, and they should have enough, you would think, to force a few commanders' mistakes and do well offense.
Well, and it's you know, it's been a little bit better on the how we'll get sacked eight times a game front, but he's still's been taken down more than any quarterback in the league.
Leads the league in pass attempts too.
I mean, they're kind of just putting a lot on him, and so their offense has been like I mean, you can think about the way they life.
The eight sacks, So he's eighteen away from David Carr, by the way for the ull time records.
That's stretch.
I don't he's got a chance that's a game because they haven't had some of the worst games have been were cases slow down yet, Yeah, but yeah.
It's butter knifing it a little bit. But uh sneaky total collapse by the Commanders. They've won one game, uh in the past two months.
Well, they trade away two of their defensive centerpieces, like they fired their defensive coordinator. Everyone knows the coaching staff's getting fired. Like there's a human element where these people have been in the building for a month listening to these coaches who are walking dead man at this point, like in.
The defense before trading them.
Whatever they were trying to do on defense, and this was a team that envisioned being defense first. It clearly wasn't working. It's not going to work. So this is a bad matchup. And it's why I told a friend who lost their both their quarterbacks for fantasy and Stafford was somehow available?
Are you kid?
I was like, I'd start Stafford in fantasy over almost any quarterback in the league this week.
What's going on in that line?
I have a single QB league out of my life. It's come on, it's bad. That's the Stafford does not get left on a bench or in the free agency. It's a little weird.
Three straight games he's been whipping touchdown passes left and right.
I mean, what was that guy in the league with like a bunch of toddlers. It's maybe.
Yeah, Dan has been running his his son's team and his no choice. You know, he's happy to be on a wind streak and sneak into the playoffs.
Back little kids.
Yeah, I'm on my like, forget about the Browns. I'm on my fifth quarterback in that league. It's just been a heroic effort. Heroic you're the general manager essentially.
Yeah, it's fallen to me.
The kids weren't ready for fantasy football yet we brought him in to give him a shot.
They check in, they asked, did we win? Yeah? Protect them from the bad news.
You know, you just but when four hb's going, I are, they're not coming through the waiver wire.
So Dad has to come in to save the league. I mean this back now, it is integrity. Yeah, I agree. I don't like it when there's dead teams.
All right, And did we talk about Kyan Williams Because we should because he's averaging one hundred and ten yards from scrimmage this season. That's the third most in the NFL. That's like, that's in the Christ McCaffrey Tyree kill zone.
That's a fantasy league winner. Any Tyron Williams should be doing well.
Did you know that?
Back in twenty eighteen, Todd Gurley averaged one hundred and thirty yards per scrimmage for an entire season. Todd Gurley was so effing good and then it just disappeared. But I'll remember Todd Gurley as like sneaky one of the best running backs of the last twenty years for what three years?
One of those quarterback less running backs with like the brilliant window was just short because of injury, like you know Terrell Davis had.
Then he got in the Hall.
I think Terrell but an outlier, like like he should have been because of who he was, but an outlier type.
He's a TV Hall of Famer, but he not like he will not go to the Hall of Fame anyway. He didn't have quite the stretch either, by anything. Terrell Davis did TV in terms of like great a five year stretch. Yeah, anything else got paid too, got that got that big contract.
Yeah, the Rams were like what we should have done that?
All right, I'll close it out now, let's start with I actually liked this game, so I'm happy to get it here.
The the Niners at Arizona, where my regret was I would have rather.
Yeah, this one was a game that I was circling maybe earlier, but it all kind of worked out. So I just think the Niners are the opposite of the Chiefs right now. They are a team I love to watch. They're just so fun, especially on offense obviously, and uh and and Deebo Samuel is on one of He's had heaters throughout his career, that is, you know, starting to flirt with the Hall of Fame career at this point two more years of this.
I feel like all these Niners players are Yeah.
And if he scored three touchdowns two weeks ago, he added two more and nearly a third last week. And when he is humming and doing his thing, they are absolutely impossible because you have McCaffrey and you have Ayuke doing his thing, and Kittle Pepper and Kittle with a big play every now and then, and it's just like Purty seeing it all and in complete command of the offense.
It's very bad news obviously for the Arizona Cardinals.
I would say the only thing, if I'm speaking of Fantasy forty nine ers might be so far ahead of this game at halftime.
That they pull the reins back. That's what I now. Wow.
The reason why I like the game is because at least now Kyler's in the mix, and you have a chance here is are we heading to rest stop?
Greg should we had to rest up? Said to rest up? The Cardinals do have an extra week off here coming out. Do you think that makes a difference here?
They are at home, They're twelve and a half point underdogs at home. The forty nine Ers are minus eight to fifty to win the game.
That feels fair.
The first time these teams played, it was a weird game. I remember it was close going into the fourth quarter, but it never really felt close because it like the forty nine ers had a huge lead. It's a Kyler heat check. I don't rest yeah, but I don't think it'll be close. But it is a Kyler heat check because I really felt like he was coming into his own before the bye, really impressing in a way that was a little different than he had been under Cliff Kingsbury.
And this is an ultimate heat check. If he can just play well in this game, you're like, okay again. Another reason that he will be around there next year, not traded.
I mean, and yet the Niners defense is allowing fewer points than any team of the league, and it looks like it. It's like it's almost like they're so good all over the place that it's like we talk about perty, we talk about christ McCaffrey has more yards against NFC his own division, against NFC West teams than any player against their own division going back to nineteen fifty. So it's like it starts right there and then you just
dole it out. Party is nine point nine passing yards per attempt, or the most in a single season all time. The next closest player right now is one point three eight yards per attempt, And it's like this is not even when it's like you take away the yards after the catch, Like he's not who people thought he was a month ago, and we're not gonna we already all understand that, and he's right where he should be in
the MVP race. But he's been nearly perfect. And like, this is not a team that under Shanahan has like let down games. I feel like other teams you worry about a trap, Like I'm not worried about going to Arizona, where half that fan base sold their tickets to Niners fans.
Anyways, Yeah, they're at a level I think right now offensively, and we saw it last week where they don't even have to bring their A game because their B game is enough to blow out teams.
So that is gonna be.
It's a show every week and uh, the only question is can they stay healthy down the stretch and can Kyle Shanahan exercise demons.
It's a great subplot and in the MVP weeks he wouldn't choose.
He was put in a tough spot having to choose between McCaffrey and of course you don't say it.
Yeah, of course you don't say it.
I think pretty pretty's different than he I think has been the first twenty twenty five games in his career because he he knows better when to take chances. I think here he got a very lucky I think with turnover luck for a while and then he got then it started hitting him, and I think he's been much more careful with the ball that that improv play he had to ayuke like, he's known exactly when to take a chance and he's hit it.
But he has he's been much safer and that's really helped the final game.
No surprise here the Atlanta Falcons uh are giving three points to the Carolina Panthers an over under of thirty for oh, who's on this one, Adam? I mean Mark Schlereth and Christina Pink on the sideline. I rather not really focus on the Panthers at all because it just makes me sad. And they are looking to restart the brain trust and hope to get Bryce Young on track for next year, and hopefully Bryce Young makes it through the season healthy and has a clear path in the offseason.
The Falcons are coming off another disappointing loss. They just cannot sustain any momentum. I think it should be noted Mark that Desmond Ridder has been better since returning from the bench. It was the right move in retrospect to Arthur Smith's credit, and I've been as hard on Arthur Smith as anybody to go back to rinter because he does have the ability and to make plays. He also has the ability and the incredible consistency to make a bad play that either disallows the team from putting a
team away or outright costs them game. So you kind of know in some ways he is consistent because you know what you're gonna get. You're gonna get some impact plays with his legs and with his arm, and he's gonna kill you with the mistake or two.
By the end of the fourth quarters.
I think one thing though, that is really promising about last week is and in general, like Drake London, who you know a lot of people arguing that he vanished for periods of time that all their star players are vanishing through the year. London's coming off the game where he had ten receptions for one hundred and seventy two yards to your point, Rader had to be back three hundred and fifty and so yes, it's kind of like
you see it at times. I feel like they just come and go as an offense, but you are playing a Panther's run defense that is literally last in the league in EPA. It's like, I think you could just go do your thing. You can go do your thing and like this this these guys played in Week one and you know you don't you don't have any concern about Falcons on defense against this offense that is a
non starter. Jesse Bates had two picks in this in the opener and I guess it's kind of like a litmus test of like, will you see Jesse Bates differently this time?
If you're Brice Young, are you gonna see anything? Because I don't.
I just feel like it's getting worse and so I can't end fast enough for the pan. So if you're the Falcons and you don't take care of business here, it's like, I think we're all allowed to not believe in you one iota.
Well, yeah, it's the money line's one minus one sixty two, which feels like value. Because the team that loses to Carolina loses the division. Your season's over. I just I declare it. And if any of them to declare, any of those NFC South teams lose to Carolina, they're not
They're just not going to win the division. I don't think the Falcons would do such such a thing, But it is Arthur Smith year three, the end of year three, and it's like we should be seeing what the vision is all come together, and I kind of see it.
Speaking of a vision, I see a vision, a vision of beauty and grace in the studio comes la Keisha Wesley.
It is perfect.
You you want to be the person that comes on after the Panthers Falcons preview.
Yes, everything seems amazing.
What's I don't think Grace tripping?
It's okay, what's up?
Could It's always so funny to be back in the office and seeing everybody.
It's like taking a grand tour.
Yes, and got you. And Lakeisha is staying with the hands of his family this week. Nice. Uh, and that's always a treat. And what part of that? I've been to your house there she has privacy down by the pool area.
Yeah, okay, that's beautiful, like a bachelorette pad.
It is, it is, And uh, we're gonna have we have a nice gathering plan for tomorrow to celebrate both the holidays and Lakeisha.
I love it, love wing. Keisha's here.
I still can't believe I missed you all yesterday.
Man, just running around crazy. I'm like, I'm looking here and it's like a ghost town. I'm like, wait a minute, where did everybody go?
I miss Colleen?
Like what's going on?
I'm with you, Dan, Lake Yeah, birth of Jesus, Christmas family, that's all fine. Yeah, Keisha coming to town. It's proper ority of celebrations. This is a family right here.
Lincoln's not happy though He's been on's I've been talking about coming out to California again, and then we had to break it down to him that had to come out here for work.
Leisha showed my son to the picture of Link and Harrison's like, he's so much bigger now.
He is really following on Instagram, Like, but he does he still have a Spider Man like obsession.
I don't know when that's going to end, and I'm all for it.
I love it. Good one.
I'm bringing him out in February, though, I'm going to bring him out around for Chris's birthday so you guys can see, like how big he is. There's actually even this picture that I wanted to show you guys that we took and look how much he like looks like him.
Oh my god. We'll put this up on the YouTube and on the fast channels. That is adorable, a little like Vans and stuff. I love it.
Link is the miracle, uh after we lost Chris that you know, he Chris is in our life forever because Link is in our life forever. And of course Lakeisha and Keish, you are someone who takes Link to Cincinnati, Yes, often to keep link and yourself connected to the Westling family.
Yes, we we do have a lock.
That was a Saturday game lock so didn't fit into this show, but we need to get it in the show.
We have Saturday previews on our Wednesday show if you missed it. Yes, so here is the zoo Keeper, also known as Nick Wessel.
Hey, Heroes, I guess I got what was coming to me last week. I was arrogant and making fun of the Jets, and then they went and blew out the Texans. Didn't really see that one coming. I don't know that anyone really did. Sometimes that's the way it goes. The most disappointing part is now Number Greg has a three game lead with what hate to play. No way anyone's gonna come back and beat him. He's got it sewn up.
And I think that's disappointing for the listeners because they all hate when he wins because he's boring and doesn't have any fun, and that's what the show should be all about.
This is fun. This week, the Bangles.
Over the moribund team of atn I went three to nothing on a last minute field goal. Last he dubs a dub against the Terrible team. What is going on with them?
I don't know.
The Bengals. They look good the last couple of weeks. We'll see if the offense can keep it rolling. But the key's going to be hand this lou Ana Romo. Defense the music this week at the end of the year and carry them into the playoffs. They got a tough road, but they can win three out of four. Lock it up this week and you see what happens.
Nowt happen to see him crack a smile about two minutes into that, because that was here.
Can we remind the time limits next time?
I was having so much fun listening to that fun lock. I fell asleep there for a minute.
I think, you know what I think happened with the zoo keeper.
That was a jarring lock reversal on him, and I think it took some of his swagger out.
So he needs Cincinnati and the Bengals to lift him out. When I made the city, I actually had to like check. I was like one twenty one, did they double? I had to make sure that I did. He's in a place. He's obviously in a place.
Nick who is you know, obviously charismatic man and always loved seeing Nick and Chris together.
Because they would chop it up and argue and have a good time.
One of my favorite moments from the wedding weekend in Tybee was being there at I think it was Wayne and Rosy's and they're tossing corn hole, they're tossing bags on the morning of the wedding, and both of them not a care in the world, kind of looking more or less exactly exactly like each other's, same body language, and just talking like merciless to each other during the entire game. And so having Nick part of the show another way to keep Chris.
All the brothers are like that too. It's so crazy. It's like, I don't know how their parents don't that.
With that, but none of them look and sound as much like And there are actual twins too, so it like there's.
Just spilled water for the second time.
They each have like a little like anytime like I look at them, there's like it's either I see Chris in the eyes or I see Chris and like the smile. Like anytime I'm around any of them, I look and there's like I always see something. It's just like, okay, I see.
Chris in there, so although you know, Lakeisha like streamlined. Chris turned him into like essentially a.
Ball male model, right. Him and Nick were similar.
Imagine Nick, but my god, yeah, gone through a Wes.
You know what you did with Wes the fashion makeover? Just the look he was bad. He was humming.
It's just putting a little effort, that's all.
I mean. It's hard.
Greg's acknowledged that his significant other bought ninety eight percent of his wardrobe too, So it's not that I think.
It's a pretty common thing that happens with very common with the significant others.
Nice he took over on his own. Like I was shocked. I just he like flew like a like a butterfly into own my compashion world.
I was like, go off, Kish anything else you want to add.
I got to do something cool last weekend and I got to be a key speaker for the American Cancer Society in Saint Louis. There was an event called the Coaches Versus Cancer, and so I got to share my story and it just it was good, Like you know, especially some people that you know didn't.
Listen to the podcast.
I got to like, you know, reminisce on the past and stuff and It was pretty powerful just making sure people listen to their bodies and you know, go to the doctor and get things checked out, because it's a huge difference if you catch cancer Early's great.
That's great important advice. And also because you've been working on it in my home. Uh, well, he's your works for the NFL.
What are you working on? Where do people see the stuff that you're working on?
Yes, I produced the series NFL Generations, So basically it's like NFL Legend with the current player. They'll sit down and like go over each other like highlights and talk about how they like different back in the day versus now. And that has been so much f on this season. I just finished a piece with John Randall and Miles Garrett. It's on NFL Plus and it's just been a lot of fun.
It's like a good pluck and uh, we look forward to the Bernie Cozar Josh Allen episode.
And you had the great point keish that, Uh because I heard John Randall in in the You're sitting at the dining room table working and you made the point that like this job like connects to Wes too, because he's such an NFL historian and and he would have gotten a kick out of you working on projects like that.
Yeah, I thought about that one time. It's like learning all this like history, and it's just like man. Somehow it feels like Wes is like kind of like talking through me through work and stuff.
Awesome.
John Randall is basically my uncle now just f y.
Yeah, you have to become friends with these guys. Did He can be like a ride from the airport level.
All right, Keish, can't wait for this weekend and and great times and always better when you're around.
I love you guys.
You all right?
And that is it for Around the NFL the Week fifteen preview, TNF recap tonight. Check that out NFL plus Vocal, Keisch's project and our show also there, and then we'll see a flagship show Sunday night.
Eat the Call.