In the last podcast before the holidays, Inside Economics chats with Carl Tannenbaum, Chief Economist of Northern Trust about the economy, financial system, Fed and forecasting. The group took as a good omen that they had a Tannenbaum and a DiNatale on the podcast just before Christmas (you may need to Google the names). Not that they attribute their forecasting process to the use of such signs. For more on Carl Tannenbaum click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and...
Dec 22, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 143
The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in 2023 as consumers shrugged off a number of headwinds. With inflation abating and the Federal Reserve facing less pressure to hike interest rates, recession risks are fading. But they can’t be fully discounted given high interest rates, geopolitical turmoil, declining savings, and political uncertainty. Slower growth with somewhat higher unemployment is the most likely outcome. Call it a slowcession. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWay...
Dec 19, 2023•1 hr 31 min
Michael Strain, resident scholar and the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) returns to the podcast to discuss the Fed’s big pivot towards rate cuts early next year and the resulting monster rally in stocks and bonds. The discussion then turns to what ails the collective psyche. Think rents and the price of ramen. For mor information on Michael Strain click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn f...
Dec 15, 2023•1 hr 17 min•Ep. 142
Mark Donovan founder of the Denver Basic Income Project joins Inside Economics to discuss some early results from a guaranteed income program that provides direct cash assistance to unhoused individuals without conditions. Mark responds to a range of criticisms often levied around such efforts. And you don’t want to miss how Tesla is connected to the start of the project’s funding. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. ...
Dec 08, 2023•49 min
Inside Economics discusses the December jobs report, which left Mark feeling “giddy”, Cris “cheerful”, Dante “happy”, and Marisa “great”. The team considers the jobs numbers in the context of other recent labor market indicators which show a resilient but moderating job market. And they end with an assessment of whether the recently boomy labor supply and strong productivity growth are sustainable. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for add...
Dec 08, 2023•53 min•Ep. 141
Chris Mayer, Professor of Real Estate Economics at Columbia University and CEO of Longbridge Financial, joins Mark, Marisa, and Cris to discuss reverse mortgages and the state of the residential real estate market. While the single-family market may tread water, multifamily may be in for a serious correction. Mark wonders if we can avoid the fallout from this economic meteor. For more about Christopher Mayer, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNata...
Dec 01, 2023•1 hr 28 min•Ep. 140
Inside Economics considers the economy’s performance and prospects through the prism of the electric utility industry with the Chief Economist of American Electric Power, Dan White. It was great to catch up with Dan, a former colleague, and get his insight on how American households and businesses are doing. He also ponders the transition to green energy. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, plea...
Nov 24, 2023•1 hr 15 min•Ep. 139
Fred Hochberg, Fmr. Chairman & President of the Export–Import Bank of the United States and author of Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word: How Six Everyday Products Make the Case for Trade , joins the Inside Economics team to discuss all things related to global trade. The discussion takes up the U.S.-China relationship, the future of globalization, and how trade policy may change after the 2024 election. Marisa’s visit to Disneyland is a (largely irrelevant but entertaining) theme throughout. F...
Nov 17, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 138
Teresa Bazemore, CEO of the San Francisco Federal Home Loan Bank, joins the podcast to discuss the nation's reeling housing market, and the role of the FHLB system. There's a lot to talk about as Teresa weighs recent criticism of the FHLBs in the wake of the banking crisis earlier this year, and the recent report from the FHLBs' regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, proposing reforms to the system. For more information about Teresa Bazemore click here Moody's Papers discussed in this ep...
Nov 10, 2023•1 hr 24 min•Ep. 137
Dante joins the podcast to break down the October employment report. With job growth moderating and the unemployment rate edging higher, the Fed’s fight against inflation should get a little bit easier. The team also takes a few listener questions about the definition of the unemployment rate and what impact softening rents will have on single-family housing. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, ...
Nov 04, 2023•1 hr 10 min•Ep. 136
The inside Economics team takes up the gangbuster GDP growth in the third quarter. Marisa walks the group though the GDP identity C+I+G+net exports and concludes that while the report overstates the case, it makes a strong case that the economy is on solid ground. Cris gives Marisa an A+ for her exposition. Good thing given their history. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at In...
Oct 27, 2023•49 min•Ep. 135
Mark, Cris and Marisa welcome colleague David Fieldhouse to Inside Economics to talk about the run up in long-term bond yields and mortgage rates, as well as the outlook for the consumer. The team discusses why the 10-year yield has breached 5% for the first time since before the GFC and what it might mean for the economy if rates stay higher for longer. They also consider the possibility of the yield curve reverting into positive territory soon. Mark tries to help Cris overcome his fears of a c...
Oct 20, 2023•1 hr 22 min•Ep. 134
Inflation was front and center in this week’s podcast. Mark and Marisa (yes, she’s back and winning the stats game again) hosted a wonderful cast of colleagues to talk over the September CPI report, the European inflation experience, which is similar to that here in the U.S., and given recent grim events in the Middle East, energy prices. The bottom line is inflation continues to head in the right direction, but not in a straight line. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, a...
Oct 13, 2023•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 133
Dante joins Cris and Mark to digest the September jobs report. The outsized job gain during the month was surprising, but after Dante’s masterful dissection of the data, the group agrees there is a lot to like in the report. After the stats game, they discussion turns to the recent surge in long-term interest rates and how big a threat it poses to the economy. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments,...
Oct 06, 2023•57 min•Ep. 132
The fast approaching federal government shutdown is top of mind on this week’s podcast. Mark and Cris consider how the shutdown may play out and the economic consequences. Two other colleagues, Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick, then join the conversation to assess the all important Chinese and Japanese economies. Are the economic fortunes of these two massive economies flip-flopping? For China and Japan: Facing History, a book outlining the strained historical relationship between these two cou...
Sep 29, 2023•1 hr 28 min•Ep. 131
Inside Economics welcomes Rob Fauber, President and CEO of Moody’s Corporation to the podcast. He discusses his concept of exponential risk and the opportunities and challenges of using AI. Rob shares what it's like to lead a global firm and answers a few get-to-know-you questions from Mark, Cris and Marisa. But before the conversation with Rob, the team discusses how worried they are about various economic threats and their potential impact on the macroeconomic economy. Guest: Rob Fauber , Pres...
Sep 22, 2023•1 hr 26 min•Ep. 130
The looming UAW strike is top of mind, and no one better to talk to about how it may play out and what it means for the economy than Jonathan Smoke of COX Automotive and our own vehicle industry expert, Mike Brisson. Bernard Yaros also joins the podcast to talk about the consumer inflation report. Mark and Cris agree that while the current economic numbers look good, there’s plenty to worry about. For more from Jonathan Smoke, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon,...
Sep 14, 2023•1 hr 18 min•Ep. 129
Given the strong counter narratives regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy – from bright optimism that AI will significantly lift productivity growth and wealth to dark pessimism that it will lead to a dystopic increase in unemployment and cybercrime – we asked Martin Fleming to sort it out. And the former chief economist of IBM and current author and Chief Revenue Scientist at Varicent does just that. And Mark does a bit of advertising along the way. For more about Marti...
Sep 08, 2023•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 128
The August jobs report couldn’t have been much better. Dante and Cris called it a good report, while Mark and Marisa thought it was a VERY good report. Either way, the report has soft landing written all over it. In standing with the good cheer over the jobs numbers, the group recounted their favorite music. Some surprises there. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comm...
Sep 01, 2023•1 hr 10 min•Ep. 127
The economy is performing about as well as could be expected. Growth is resilient, inflation is moderating, and unemployment is low and stable. It appears increasingly likely the economy will avoid a recession. But having said this, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes are weighing heavily on the financial system and economy. To avoid a recession, nothing else can go wrong. In this podcast, Mark, Cris and team consider what could go wrong. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Z...
Aug 25, 2023•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 126
Despite the light week of economic data, there was lots going in in the economy to discuss for the Inside Economics team, including the runup in 10-year Treasury yields and fixed mortgage rates. Noted investment banker Chris Whalen then joins the conversation to talk about the banking system, its’ under significant pressure, the independent mortgage banks, a shakeout is underway, and the Fed and other regulators, he’s not a fan. For more on Chris Whalen, click here For the full transcript, click...
Aug 18, 2023•1 hr 18 min•Ep. 125
The Inside Economics team dissects the July report on consumer price inflation and concludes that inflation is on track to be back to the Fed’s inflation target by this time next year. Well, OK, Cris thought more likely the end of next year. The discussion then turned to modest fallout from the banking crisis earlier this year (at least so far) and Fed policy with University of Maryland economics professor Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. For more from Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, click here For the full transcri...
Aug 11, 2023•1 hr 31 min•Ep. 124
It’s jobs Friday, and Mark, Cris and Dante discuss the near perfect (Dante’s description) July employment report. Job growth remains strong, but it is moderating, and should help convince the Federal Reserve that its interest rates hikes are over. The group identified a few nits in the numbers, but the report was so good Cris lowered his odds the economy will suffer a recession in the coming year. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and ...
Aug 04, 2023•52 min•Ep. 123
Mark, Cris and Marisa (yes, she is back) welcome Matt Robison of the Beyond Politics podcast to talk policy and politics. The discussion ranges from the risk of a government shutdown and Bidenomics to a consideration of whether the nation’s politics are as fractured as they seem and who is going to be the next President. It goes without saying there was also a fulsome conversation about this past week’s economic data - could the numbers have been any better? Even “supercore” inflation was up jus...
Jul 28, 2023•1 hr 23 min•Ep. 122
Mark and Cris take stock of the economy’s performance so far this year, and consider what surprised them (think the job market), what they got right (think weaker house prices), and what they got wrong (think the banking crisis). They also look forward and discuss what people are overly considered about, and what they should be more worried about. Where’s Marisa? For the full transcript, click here . Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for a...
Jul 23, 2023•1 hr 25 min•Ep. 121
The stellar June CPI inflation report is top of mind for Mark, Cris and Bernard. The report arguably couldn’t have been better, as the conversation makes clear. The podcast then turns to a discussion of whether the worst is over for the troubled single family housing market with Lance Lambert, the real estate editor for Fortune. No one has a better pulse of the market than Lance. For more on Lance Lambert, click here or follow him on twitter @NewsLambert For the full transcript, click here Follo...
Jul 14, 2023•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 120
Mark, Cris & Marisa are joined by Jobs Day regular Dante DeAntonio to discuss the June employment report. Job growth is slowing to script but wage growth is still stubbornly high. The group discusses full employment, the probabilities of recession in the next year and what this all means for the Fed’s upcoming meetings. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, ...
Jul 07, 2023•41 min•Ep. 119
Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at the China Center of Yale Law School, discusses China’s near and longer-term economic prospects with Mark, Cris and Marisa. Steve explains why he has evolved from a bull to a bear on China’s economy, why the critical relationship between China and the U.S. has gone sideways, and how to get the relationship moving in a positive direction. For more on Stephen Roach, click here For more information on Stephen Roach's book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the ...
Jun 30, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 118
Mark, Cris and Marisa weigh whether or not to change the forecast for the Fed funds rate and dig deep to play the statistics game. Later they are joined by Professor Glenn Mueller of the University of Denver to talk all things commercial real estate. Professor Mueller ranks the segments of the CRE market from worst to best performing and explains why the legalization of marijuana has disrupted the retail market. For more on Glenn Mueller, click here For the full transcript, click here Follow Mar...
Jun 23, 2023•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 117
The Inside Economics team takes shelter from a tornado (true story), and Mark Calabria, senior advisor to the Cato Institute and former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, describes the FHFA’s efforts to provide shelter to the housing and mortgage finance markets during the pandemic. His new book “Shelter from the Storm,” is a fascinating telling of that difficult period. For more on Mark Calabria, click here . For more information on Mark Calabria's book "Shelter from the Storm," cl...
Jun 16, 2023•1 hr 22 min•Ep. 116
