Amid mounting geopolitical tensions over the independence of Taiwan, Mark and team consider various scenarios regarding how this is ultimately resolved. China appears to be taking a long-term perspective in its goal to unify Taiwan with the mainland, and thus the most likely scenario assumes the current uncomfortable, but peaceful status quo. But much darker scenarios can’t be ruled out. For the full report on the China-Taiwan Scenarios, click here . For the full transcript, click here Follow Ma...
Jun 09, 2023•58 min•Ep. 115
The group dives deep into the jobs report for May. They dissect the cross-currents in the numbers, and consider what the report means for financial markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy. The economic fallout of the legislative deal to end the debt limit drama, including the end of the student loan payment moratorium, are also part of the discussion. And of course there is the statistics game. For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, a...
Jun 02, 2023•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 114
Ben Harris, former Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, summarizes the latest proposal for raising the debt ceiling. An acceptable deal seems to be within reach but remains politically uncertain even as the x-date draws near. What are the alternatives if no deal is reached? And what could be the consequences for bondholders, Social Security recipients, and other stakeholders? Ben joins Mark and Cris in a round of the Inside Economics Statistics Game and provides his views ...
May 26, 2023•1 hr 14 min•Ep. 113
Richard Branch, Chief Economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, joins the podcast to share his insights on all things construction. Construction is the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy, yet despite the near unprecedented tightening in monetary policy, it is holding its’ own. What gives? The group also digs deep into the different parts of the construction sector, from the struggling office market to the surge in public infrastructure. For more on Richard Branch, click here . Fo...
May 19, 2023•1 hr 11 min•Ep. 112
Mark and team do a deep dive into the inflation numbers and consider prospects that inflation will continue to moderate. After the statistics game, they turn to their latest research considering the economic fallout of what could happen if lawmakers fail to increase the debt limit in time. It isn’t pretty. For more on the debt limit breach scenarios, click here . For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for add...
May 12, 2023•1 hr 21 min•Ep. 111
Another jobs Friday, another strong jobs report. Dante DeAntonio joins the crew to break down the employment numbers and what they mean for the near-term outlook. The team also discusses the recent banking crisis, the looming debt limit x-date, and the most likely outcomes for both. And is someone using ChatGPT to cheat at the statistics game? For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Que...
May 05, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 110
Falling house prices and recent housing policy actions taken by the FHA and FHFA to address housing affordability are top of mind this week. Edward Pinto, Senior Fellow and the Director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute joins to discuss. The team also provides their thoughts on weaker-than-expected GDP data. Is the weak GDP # good or bad for the economy? Marisa dominates the statistics game. For more on Edward Pinto, click here For the full transcript, click here Fol...
Apr 28, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 109
John Toohig, head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, joins Mark, Cris and Marisa to discuss the fallout of the banking crisis on lending standards, credit growth and the economy. The fallout so far seems manageable, but... For more on John Toohig, click here or follow him on LinkedIn or Twitter . If you would like to learn more about upcoming Moody’s Analytics & Raymond James in Conversation events click here For the full transcript, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis...
Apr 21, 2023•1 hr 11 min•Ep. 108
Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Cox Automotive and colleague Mike Brisson join Mark and Cris to discuss what’s going on in the vehicle market. After a rundown on this week’s inflation stats we discuss prospects for vehicle prices, sales, production, and the implications of tighter underwriting and weaker credit quality in the auto loan market. We also take up the tough new emission standards and what they mean for EV adoption. Full episode transcript For more on Jonathan Smoke, click here . F...
Apr 14, 2023•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 107
Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, joins the podcast. She gives us a rundown on the economy, including her thoughts on the job market and inflation, and the hard work of incorporating climate risk into the outlook for the economy and federal budget. For more information on Heather Boushey’s work with the Council of Economic Advisers click here or follow her on Twitter at @HBoushey46. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiN...
Apr 11, 2023•57 min
Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins us for the March release of the US employment report. Down the strike zone. In the middle of the uprights. Down the fairway. Sticking to script. All apt descriptions of the job market in the month of March. But this is all before the fallout of the banking crisis has become evident. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconom...
Apr 07, 2023•1 hr 15 min•Ep. 106
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer for Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs, join Mark, Cris and Marisa to cut through the uncertainty over the banking crisis and China’s prospects. The worst of the banking crisis appears to be over, but China’s economic problems are only beginning. For more about Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani click here For more on Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group 2023 Outlook click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNat...
Mar 31, 2023•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 105
Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG returns to discuss fragilities in the financial system and the impact on credit availability and the economy. She shares her view that a meaningful recession is dead ahead. We also discuss the Fed’s meeting earlier this week and their decision to not pause rates given the banking system turmoil. For more on Diane Swonk, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Co...
Mar 24, 2023•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 104
Mark and Marisa welcome third time returning guest Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute to discuss the recent bank failures. They converse and debate about how things went so badly off the rails, the government’s response and what could have been done differently, and the implications for the Fed’s interest rate decision next week. For more on Aaron Klein, click here. For the full transcript, click here. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEc...
Mar 17, 2023•1 hr 20 min•Ep. 103
It’s another Jobs’ Friday and colleague Dante DeAntonio is here to discuss February’s employment report. Wage growth is moderating and the unemployment rate ticked up, but labor supply among prime age workers reached a post-pandemic high--is that enough evidence to say we are at full employment? Also on the agenda is discussing the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the 2nd largest bank collapse in U.S. History. We are already seeing the disruption in financial markets but what does it mean for the...
Mar 10, 2023•59 min•Ep. 102
Colleagues Scott Hoyt and David Fieldhouse join the podcast to analyze the state of American consumers and household balance sheets. Then Mark, Cris and Marisa answer some listener questions. For the full transcript click here To learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here . Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would ...
Mar 03, 2023•1 hr 21 min•Ep. 101
Duke finance professor Cam Harvey, the father of the yield curve as a prescient predictor of future recession, weighs in on what the curve is saying about recession in the coming year. You will be surprised. Mark and Cris were. Full episode transcript here For more on Cam Harvey, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear f...
Feb 28, 2023•1 hr 3 min
Bill Spriggs, Chief Economist of AFL-CIO, joins the podcast and shares his views that we need to be patient on inflation, it's not the result of an overly tight labor market but to temporary forces, and thus does not require aggressive Fed rate hikes. He also dissects President Biden's industrial policy. Full episode transcript here For more on Bill Spriggs, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or C...
Feb 24, 2023•1 hr 14 min•Ep. 100
Mark, Cris, and Marisa answer questions from their recent U.S. Economic Outlook webinar where they discussed that the economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious threat, but the Moody's Analytics baseline forecast-the most-likely outlook-holds that the economy will avoid a downturn. Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, p...
Feb 22, 2023•1 hr 9 min
Colleague, Bernard Yaros joins the podcast to help unpack the January CPI Report (which just happened to be released on Valentine's Day) and discuss their biggest inflation concerns, including Marisa's shockingly high gas bill. Bernard gives a rundown of the U.S. Treasury outlook with regards to the debt limit. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We...
Feb 17, 2023•1 hr 17 min•Ep. 99
Chris Herbert, Managing Director at Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the housing market, from the current housing recession to the outlook for homeownership. Go Eagles! Full Episode Transcript For more on Chris Herbert, click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. T...
Feb 10, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 98
Colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast for another round of Job's Friday. The group dissects the January report, which included a shockingly large increase in jobs and a 53-year low unemployment rate. Everyone's probability of recession in the next 12-18 months appear to be trending downward. Including Cris! Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at Insid...
Feb 03, 2023•1 hr 20 min•Ep. 97
Mark and Cris welcome Matthew Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, and colleague Gaurav Ganguly, to discuss climate change and Matthew's optimistic view on adaptation to global temperature rise. Full Episode Transcript For more from Matthew Kahn follow him on twitter: @mattkahn1966 Recommended Reads: Adapting to Climate Change Climate Change Adaptation Climatopolis What will Climate Change Cost You Climatopolis Revisited Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cri...
Jan 31, 2023•1 hr 1 min
The Q4 GDP Report has been released and Mark, Cris, and Marisa analyze the weirdness surrounding the data. Colleague, Gaurav Ganguly, joins the podcast to give a European perspective and Mark continues his domination in the statistics game. Full episode transcript To learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here . Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at ...
Jan 27, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 96
We welcome Jason Furman, Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School to discuss what could potentially be a catastrophic default of the national debt. We'll get into President Biden's economic policies, inflation, and recession over the next 12-18 months. Jason came to play with some humor, positivity, and a great stat. Full episode transcript To learn more about Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 & register, click here . Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris...
Jan 20, 2023•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 95
Mark, Cris, and Marisa are joined by David Wessel, senior fellow in economic studies at Brookings, to dissect the CPI report, and discuss Fed policy, prospects for recession, and the looming threat of a debt limit breach. Full episode transcript . Come join us at the Moody’s Analytics Summit, March 5th-7th at the Phoenician in Scottsdale Arizona. To learn more & register, click here: Moody's Analytics Summit 2023 . Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatal...
Jan 13, 2023•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 94
It's job's Friday and Mark argues the labor market is cooling off according to script. Colleagues Dante DeAntonio and Marisa DiNatale provide the details. And Cris fine-tunes his definition of the best way to describe the economy's performance in the year ahead - "Slowcession". Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would lov...
Jan 06, 2023•1 hr 10 min•Ep. 93
To kick off the new year, Mark, Cris, and Marisa share their U.S. economic outlooks for 2023. Which sectors are at risk? Will the Fed tip us in? We discuss the full gamut and introduce a new segment where we take listeners' questions. Full Episode Transcript Mark's Slowcession paper. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you...
Dec 30, 2022•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 92
Colleague, Scott Hoyt, joins to discuss where the American consumer stands and how that differs by income group. A shrinking savings rate and sputtering retail sales won't break the American consumer or Mark's good mood. The group differs on the odds of recession, but is in agreement a slowcession is underway. Happy Holidays to all our listeners. Full episode transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or ...
Dec 23, 2022•1 hr 21 min•Ep. 91
Greg Jensen, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Bridgewater Associates, Mark and the team this week. We get into the causes and outlook for inflation and prospects for the economy and financial markets. Greg shares his dark forecast with the group. Full Episode Transcript Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay inform...
Dec 16, 2022•1 hr 10 min•Ep. 90
