The National Association for Business Economics released its November Outlook Survey today, and nearly all of the economists surveyed expect moderating growth and slowing inflation but, most importantly, no recession until at least 2026. Kathy Bostjancic , chief economist at Nationwide and the outlook survey chairperson for NABE, called the results "Goldilock-ish," noting that forecasting firmer growth and slower inflation than they did in September, the economists are effectively expecting a ne...
Nov 25, 2024•1 hr
After waiting over three years for "one of the worst recessions ever anticipated that never happened," Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research , says that the economy is now moving forward without much recession worry, buoyed by consumer spending — especially from Baby Boomers — and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that he considered mostly unnecessary. Yardeni sees the economy going through another "Roaring 20s" period, and while the one a century ago end...
Nov 22, 2024•58 min
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments , says that 'the soft landing was earlier this year,' and now the Federal Reserve is trying to "prevent a recession in an otherwise fairly healthy but unevenly distributed economy." Bory notes that central bankers typically cut interest rates to stimulate a slowing economy, but that's not the case currently in the United States, where he says the Fed is trying to bring rates down more in line with inflation...
Nov 21, 2024•59 min
Nick Nefouse, global head of retirement solutions in the multi-asset strategies and solutions team at BlackRock , says that in a world where investors are increasingly nervous about sequence-of-return risk — the potential for the market to crater just as they start withdrawing from their retirement nestegg, forever damaging their finances — and longevity risk, investors may be looking for ways to lock in income, so that they can avoid those concerns. He discusses how investors should be reconsid...
Nov 20, 2024•1 hr
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial expects the stock market's return levels to "return to normal," which means slower growth but not anything that ends the bull market as it rolls through its third year. Turnquist does think the short-term action has put the bulls on trial, forcing them to prove that the market can go higher without some sort of interim downturn. Turnquist thinks the market could take a setback to its Halloween lows, but that action would be an opportuni...
Nov 19, 2024•58 min
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, sees "unprecedented degrees of overvaluation" in the market, and he says the market is "dramatically overvalued" and at risk of a severe correction, but he notes that economic and fundamental models are pretty good, and investor behavior keeps driving momentum, so the positives continue to drive the market more than the overvaluation does. That means the market can rise from here, but Folts thinks investors should use "targeted ...
Nov 18, 2024•58 min
David Keller, president and chief strategist at Sierra Alpha Research says that the market has made meaningful moves to landmark new highs but he questions whether the rally is sustainable. He says that market leaders like the Magnificent Seven need to keep rolling to propel the indexes higher, and he says that weakness is showing up in Alphabet and Meta Platforms, which makes him believe that the market's upside potential at this point may be limited. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactiv...
Nov 15, 2024•59 min
Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute discusses the firm's research looking at whether campaign promises have translated into long-term outperformance for sectors that were likely to benefit from proposed policies , and while there were positive gains in the immediate aftermath of elections, many sectors underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index over the following four years. As a result, Christopher suggests caution for anyone expe...
Nov 14, 2024•59 min
Laurence Kotlikoff , professor of economics at Boston University — the founder of Maxifi , which factors economics into personal financial planning — says that while the economy is humming along now, investors should be wary of the potential for trouble, especially stemming from the high levels of tariffs that were a part of President Donald Trump's campaign promises. Kotlikoff — who hosts the Economics Matters podcast — worries that if tariffs are placed at levels not seen since the Great Depre...
Nov 13, 2024•53 min
Jerremy Newsome , founder at Real Life Trading , says he thinks the stock market has entered another period like the Roaring 20s of a century ago, and while that period ended withthe start of the Great Depression, Newsome says he thinks "we're in the middle right now. ... I see that we have truly three to six good years left of overall, bull sustainable markets before we have that big, big, big meltdown." Jeffrey Hirsh, chief executive at Hirsch Holdings — the editor of the Stock Trader's Almana...
Nov 12, 2024•1 hr
Bill Adams , chief economist for Comerica Bank , says his forecast for 2025 now includes fewer rate cuts, slightly higher inflation, and increased fiscal support for the economy, but those conditions are signs of an an economy "that's humming along, continuing to grow, it's not a recession," and he says the risk of a recession in the next year or two is now "back to its historical normal." Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal — the keeper of the American Association of Individual Investors' s...
Nov 11, 2024•1 hr
Doug Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at Channel Capital Research Institute — the author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" — says that under the new Trump Administration it is possible to return to a status where goods inflation is declining while wage growth pushes core inflation up, which could lead Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to be reluctant to make further rate cuts. While he expects more after Thursday's quarter-point reduction, he thinks the pace of cuts may be slowe...
Nov 08, 2024•1 hr
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , makes the Calamos Standard & Poor's 500 Structured Alt Protection ETF for November his "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund has 100 percent downside protection, making it ideal for investors who were shocked by the election results and who think the market is headed for a downturn. Rosenbluth runs through the complex details on the fund, which caps investor gains at 7.43 percent for investors who are willing to give up some upside potential f...
Nov 07, 2024•58 min
Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig — who recently released the third edition of " The Intelligent Investor ," Benjamin Graham's classic that many believe is the greatest investment book of all time — says that 'It used to be that your stockbroker tried to pick your pocket, and now your stockbroker is in your pocket." Those changes in technology make it hard for investors to stay focused on the long-term, which is where most will make their substantive financial gains. Zweig discusses how ...
Nov 06, 2024•57 min
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research , says he won't be surprised if there is a "normal correction" for the stock market once the presidential election is decided, followed by a pick-up into year's end, regardless of the election outcome. Kalish says he is skeptical that the economy can get to a 2 percent inflation level sustainably without going through a recession, but he does not have a recession prediction in his outlook, which argues for no landing over the next y...
Nov 05, 2024•59 min
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com , says the Federal Reserve has little choice when it meets this week but to follow through on its signals and cut interest rates by one-quarter of a percent, noting that anything larger or smaller than that come Thursday would wind up being destabilizing for the market. The anticipated rate cut, however, may not move all interest rates as expected; McBride noted that mortgage rates actually have surged since the Fed's oversized first cut in S...
Nov 04, 2024•58 min
Mark Newton, Global Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors , expects the market to go through a brief correction after the election, but to have turned that into a buying opportunity by the time December rolls around, bringing with it a Santa Claus rally to end the year. Newton says that for all of the worries investors have about the market, the numbers remain solid and while it may not support continued gains like we have seen in the last two years, it should keep the market f...
Nov 01, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones , says the stock market is likely to moderate, but investors should lean into any volatility or price declines as an opportunity to buy and build their portfolio. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Mahajan — who sees a soft landing as the most likely economic outlook — gives her take on every asset class from the Magnificent Seven to small-cap stocks, from bonds and precious metals to alternative investments. Todd Rosenbluth, head of resea...
Oct 31, 2024•58 min
Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners , says his firm's models are finding two economic factors looking negative with just one — stock price direction — looking bullish, and when that happens it typically means the market is nearing "a major inflection point and a significant change in market conditions," though there is always a chance that it is simply a refreshing pause before the market resumes its climb. Either way, he does not expect the market to turn to where it ...
Oct 30, 2024•59 min
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research , says the stock market "doesn't know exactly what to do here," with the economy clicking but sector bets being hard to make because it's hard to know which areas to favor until the re4sults of the election are in. Still, Kosar is generally bullish, noting that he has been risk-on since early August and that he will feel even more strongly if technology stocks can push the Nasdaq through previous highs for several days, clearing the way for ...
Oct 29, 2024•1 hr
Joseph Hogue of the YouTube channel " Let's Talk About Money with Joseph Hogue " says investors want to keep the bulk of their money in simple buy-and-hold strategies and shouldn't be swayed by wild recommendations coming from the blogging and podcasting community, but also says that they should scratch the itch of their fun side -- if they have one -- by taking controlled chances with the fun-money portion of their portfolio. Jillian Johnsrud, host of the " Retire Often " podcast, discusses why...
Oct 28, 2024•1 hr 14 min
FinCon '24 continues from Atlanta, and the conference has a heavy emphasis on financial coaching this year, which comes through in a few of today's conversations from the annual meeting of bloggers, podcasters, content creators, coaches and more. Chuck's guests include KeyAnder Early of How Money Works , who focuses on financial literacy and teaching young adults; Bill Yount, co-host of the " Catching Up to F.I. " podcast, which helps people who start their journey to financial independence late...
Oct 25, 2024•1 hr 10 min
Gwen Merz Joiner, who runs the Fiery Millennials blog, says that living a radical financial life trying to amass a nestegg to quit working left her exhausted and unfulfilled, but as she loosens the purse strings today, she notes that she is in her 30s and has amassed a nest egg sufficient to get her through retirement without ever setting another dollar into her 401(k). She describes the ups and downs of FI/RE -- financial independence, retire early -- in an interview from FinCon 2024. In other ...
Oct 24, 2024•1 hr 1 min
For all of the complaints consumers have about inflation, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors says that the precious metal needs "sustained high inflation" — which he defines as at least two years with inflation above 5 percent — and those conditions were not met, so gold didn't respond to rising prices. Meanwhile, gold has been rolling because it is a good hedge against geo-political risk and Milling-Stanley expects that to continue, given global tensio...
Oct 23, 2024•59 min
Jack Janasiewicz, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers , says the economy can keep supporting earnings growth, and as long as earnings are marching higher, it should pull the equity market up further. While warning that investors may have to adjust expectations after two big years that make an encore unlikely, Janasiewicz says that heightened volatility amid geopolitical tensions is more a wild-card or an unknown than a detonator for trouble. Moreover, he notes that if the global ...
Oct 22, 2024•59 min
Vishal Khanduja, Head of the Broad Markets Fixed Income team at Morgan Stanley , says with inflation trending downward, labor data will be what the Federal Reserve is most focused on, and as those numbers move the central bank may take a choppy path toward rate reductions. While that may keep the market on edge, Khanduja notes that corporate and consumer balance sheets are very strong right now — which is unusual at the start of a rate-cutting cycle — which combined with reduced inflation and lo...
Oct 21, 2024•1 hr 1 min
David Ellison, Portfolio Manager and Financial Services Specialist at the Hennessy Funds , says that the banking industry is coming out of "a two-to five year period of darkness," heading for "sunny days ahead," though he notes that banks do not want interest rates to fall too far but he thinks earnings can grow even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by another 1 percent or more. Ellison also notes that anticipated problems in commercial real estate — considered a real threat to the health of th...
Oct 18, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , says that the start of a rate-cutting cycle is a time when investors will want low-cost active management — rather than an index fund — in the fixed-income space. To that end, he picks a T. Rowe Price fund that uses a quantitative management style as his ETF of the Week, noting it can do the job for investors looking to diversify their fixed-income holdings. Jessica Johnston, senior director for NCOA's Center for Economic Well-Being In the U.S., dis...
Oct 17, 2024•1 hr 1 min
For about a decade, Chuck has offered the kids in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, to decide between a trade or a treat. It's part of his belief that even young kids are able to understand and make basic financial decisions, deciding if they would rather have candy or if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. He always encourages others to put their own stamp on the idea with kids in their neighborhood, but each year Chuck als...
Oct 16, 2024•58 min
Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors , expects the Standard & Poor's 500 should hit 6,000 by mid-2025, but he acknowledges that those gains might surprise him by coming early, turning 2024 potentially into a "super year," which would turn 2025 into a less-stellar environment. Either way, he expects the market to take a brief breather before a potential rebound for the end of the year carrying the market into the new year. Matt Zajechowski, research analyst ...
Oct 15, 2024•57 min
