Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research , says that the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve's rate cycle starts showing up, it will goose the economy and the stock market, and with the worst of the post-Covid struggles behind us, the "soft landing" most experts forecast is actually what we're experiencing now, and that better times — and continued strong corporate earnings — are ahead, without a big correction or downturn in the interim. Mian isn't the only one expres...
Oct 14, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments , says investors will have to pay the piper for the market's last two years of out-sized gains, and she thinks the music will start playing early in 2025. While she thinks the market will avoid a big recession and/or market crash — and in fact thinks the market will rebound quickly around the mid-year mark — she thinks earnings will slow, incomes may fall and the consumer will start to cut back after the holiday season, ...
Oct 11, 2024•58 min
Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors , doesn't see a recession as imminent but he says a lot of the good news has already been priced into the stock market, which will lead to slower gains or sideways performance moving forward. Sargen says that market observers expecting a soft landing were thinking that situation would allow the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates; in a no-landing scenario, however, investors should not expect the rapid rat...
Oct 10, 2024•58 min
Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group , says that investors can't expect the stock market — after 20-plus percent gains in 2023 and this year — to roll along at that pace indefinitely, noting that record highs have stocks trading well above their normal range relative to earnings. If earnings normalize and growth slows a little bit, the economy can stay strong while the market goes through a long sideways or slightly down period, likely lasting for much of next year. ...
Oct 09, 2024•58 min
Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management , says that while it is always bullish to have the stock market in record-high range, the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and again this year are setting up a long period of digestion/sideways movement that may last for much of 2025. He sees the stock market with room to keep running for now, noting that he thinks the market can gain about 7 percent from current levels before resistance digs in. When that happens, he's not expecting any sort of sharp...
Oct 08, 2024•1 hr
Tocqueville's Petrides: John Petrides, portfolio manager for Tocqueville Asset Management , says that while the market has gotten to all-time highs riding large-cap growth stocks for roughly seven years, there are undercurrents changing beneath the surface that will make diversification pay off in 2025. He notes that the market can go through a soft landing scenario while changing market leadership and he thinks the market can avoid a major downturn provided that inflation doesn't prove much sti...
Oct 07, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings , discusses his 2024 fourth-quarter economic outlook , which suggests that the recent rally can continue especially as the economy transitions into what he expects will be its first soft landing in more than three decades. Gruenwald says the economy has been "super-resilient," and he expects that to continue unless the strong labor market falters and cracks, and the bond market stops absorbing U.S. debt at low interest rates. Gruenwald al...
Oct 04, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Market strategist Lawrence McDonald , creator of The Bear Traps Report , says that conditions have changed to where investors will need "an entirely different portfolio ... and an entirely different investment philosophy" than you used in the last decade to be profitable in the next 10 years. He expects a rotation from growth stocks to value stocks, and says that industrials, materials and oil and gas companies will become a much bigger part of the market -- driving returns in the process -- in ...
Oct 03, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services , says that the rally he expected for small-cap stocks when he last appeared on the show in January, finally arrived in the third quarter and the stock market is now rotating towards smaller companies, industrials and real estate investment trusts. Ewing says that he expects the stock market to have a "decent correction" near the end of the year, if only because the market has seldom been up this much after three quarters ...
Oct 02, 2024•59 min
Nicholas Brooks, head of economic and investment research at ICG , a global alternative asset manager, says "There's nothing out there that rings major alarm bells" signalling a big recession ahead. But while he expects a soft landing, he is watching what is driving inflation, noting that while headline inflation is down, services inflation remains high and wage growth has stayed strong, factors that are good from a household income point of view but that are concerning in terms of whether infla...
Oct 01, 2024•1 hr
Nick Elfner, co-head of research at Breckinridge Capital Advisors , says that investment-grade corporate bonds are well positioned to be the strong fixed-income play now that the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates. Financial counselor Kristine Stevenson , author of "How to Avoid Trouble With the IRS," chats about how so many tax and financial issues are caused by a lack of the most-basic and simple planning, and notes that taking a few simple steps and applying common sense will ...
Sep 30, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar Inc. , returns to the show — earlier this week she discussed her book " How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement " — to talk about how inflation, rate cuts and other current events are impacting retirement planning and asset allocation decisions. She notes that after two great years for the stock market, investors often struggle to make portfolios more appropriately conservative ...
Sep 27, 2024•1 hr
Phillip Wool, head of research at Rayliant Global Advisors , makes a strong case for investing in emerging markets — as well as for sticking with investments in China despite geopolitical risk there — noting that valuations are particularly compelling compared to a domestic stock market that is flirting with record highs. While Wool does not expect the U.S. economy to go through a hard landing, he notes that the domestic market is "pricing in a lot of good news right now," and in times when the ...
Sep 26, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh , expects continued bouts of volatility for the market for the rest of the year, spurred by uncertainty around the election and the Federal Reserve's moves, but he noted that when the central bank historically has cut rates when the stock market is near all-time highs, the market moved sharply up in the following 12 months. As a result, he is increasingly optimistic about the next two years, though he says investors may wa...
Sep 25, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Amar Reganti, fixed income strategist at the Hartford Funds , says that the Federal Reserve normally starts cutting rates only when something has gone wrong, but there doesn't seem to be any portion of the U.S. economy that is so over-leveraged that it craters as/when a rate-hike cycle ends. If nothing surfaces, Reganti says this may be the generational anomaly where the central bank actually achieves a soft landing, conditions where the softening economy may go through a recession but without g...
Sep 24, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Longtime personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements — the editor at Humble Dollar , and former columnist at the Wall Street Journal — discusses how his outlook and feelings about money have mostly been reinforced since he was diagnosed in May with terminal lung cancer, and how he his focusing his time, money and energy now to make the most of his time and help his family make the most of his life savings. Clements says he is not bitter about spending a lifetime amassing retirement money for a...
Sep 23, 2024•1 hr
Nate Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management says he's not "banging the table to be significantly overweight" in the technology issues that have carried the stock market back to record high levels. He says investors should be looking at areas besides U.S. tech stocks — shifting into small-cap stocks, health-care companies, real estate investment trusts and more — to keep moving forward at a time when he sees real signs that the economy is s...
Sep 20, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp. , says the big news on Wednesday was not that the Federal Reserve started a rate-cutting cycle, but that it appears that there could be additional, aggressive rate cuts that could take an additional 1.5 percentage points off rates over the next 15 months. That rate cutting, Fleming says, reduces the risk of a deep recession, and the strength of the labor market also limits the possibility of a big decline. As a result, a year from n...
Sep 19, 2024•58 min
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com , expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rate three times before the year ends — starting with a first cut being announced today — and says the central bank will drop rates by one full percentage point by the time 2025 rolls around. He talks about how and where consumers and investors will first feel the impact of the cuts, and how to make the most of the looming changes. Bart de Bruijn, founder of EstateX , talks about tokenized real es...
Sep 18, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Warren Pierson, co-chief investment officer at the Baird Funds , says that he expects the economy to keep chugging along, avoiding a deep recession as it enters a rate-cut cycle that initially trigger a rally but investors will not want to extend the duration of their holdings too long. Pierson notes that no matter who wins the White House in November, he expects tax hikes in order for the federal government to attack deficit problems, and he says the bond market — particularly the municipal bon...
Sep 17, 2024•1 hr
Joe Quinlan, head of market strategy for Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America , says that he expects the stock market to show better breadth in 2025, with other stocks picking up slack for the Magnificent Seven stocks, which he thinks will keep growing but at much slower rates. He notes that "the U.S. economy continues to defy expectations," and as long as that continues — and he is optimistic that it will, unabated by whatever happens in the presidential election — he will keep advising in...
Sep 16, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Scott Martindale, chief executive officer at Sabrient Systems — which takes a quantitative approach to investments — says that some of the standard measures of inflation are skewed in ways that present an inaccurate picture of what's happening now. He discusses the "Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices" and how it, and several other measures, suggest that the Federal Reserve has plenty of room to make a larger rate cut now, and while he doesn't expect the central bank to take that drastic step, h...
Sep 13, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Gargi Chaudhuri, Chief Investment and Portfolio Strategist , Americas, at BlackRock , says that while she foresees a slowdown in the economy but nothing that will rise to the level of a recession. Still, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting phase during the fall — a historically volatile time for the market — she expects that investors will see heightened market movement, and that they will need to be patient to ride out the bumps confidently. Chaudhuri expects the market to broaden out,...
Sep 12, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management says "we haven't seen this much geo-political static on the horizon in at least a generation," raising real concern about how a laundry list of global boiling points could hit home. He says those risks overhang a market that looks like it can avoid a downturn for a while with the Federal Reserve looking like it can deliver a soft landing. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies looks at the group...
Sep 11, 2024•58 min
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco , says that recessions haven't been canceled, but there is no reason to expect one for at least the next year, "especially if we get the Fed to start to meaningfully ease." She thinks the Federal Reserve will start that easing process later this month with a small rate cut, largely because anything larger might spook the market. Hooper says she thinks the Fed is late to begin the cuts, which is why making the move now and starting the ra...
Sep 10, 2024•59 min
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs — who put Nvidia stock in "The Danger Zone ahead of its earnings report at the end of August, just before the stock cratered — says that the market and economic conditions are changing and lower liquidity and a slowing economy "is a recipe for a major correction in a lot of individual stocks," and that companies with misleading earnings are particularly likely to be punished. That's why he put Dayforce in the Danger Zone, because it has "the...
Sep 09, 2024•1 hr 3 min
David Souccar, international equity portfolio manager at Vontobel Quality Growth , says that the interest-rate cutting cycle is going to help international equities, as foreign central banks follow the Federal Reserve's moves, which should help foster a softer landing worldwide. That said, Souccar notes that if the United States starts raising tariffs radically, it will hurt the dollar, which will make investors want to invest internationally to protect against the dollar's falling value against...
Sep 06, 2024•1 hr 6 min
A funny thing happened on the way to today’s show. Okay, it’s not so funny since it basically canceled the show so take a quick listen to find out what happened.
Sep 05, 2024•2 min
David Goerz of @StrategicCAPM says the current market is putting a twist on Internet Bubble days, but that stock valuations are extremely high and so are most risk factors, so investors might want to hunker down and wait at least for rate-driven volatility to pass. Joel Dickson of Vanguard Group discusses how rules changes impacting the way investors must remove money from individual retirement accounts (IRAs) they inherit from loved ones should worry most people about how following conventional...
Sep 04, 2024•1 hr
Michael Ball, president and lead portfolio manager at Weatherstone Capital Management , says that while the economy appears to be headed for a soft landing, that smooth ride and the first rate cuts have already been priced into the bond market, which means that bonds are not giving much cushion right now against any softness that could lead to a recession. He notes that higher quality bonds in floating-rate bank loans, short-term high yield and other niches are strong values in current condition...
Sep 03, 2024•1 hr
