Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts , says that money is rotating out of technology and "into pretty much every other sector," which means that participation in the current bull run is broadening out. Still, he says, there is a question of whether the upswing can continue if tech isn't participating. As a result, deKempenaer sees the market trading close to current resistance levels, and he worries there is more potential for the Standard & Poor's 500 to drop to 5,55...
Aug 30, 2024•1 hr
Andrew Krei, co-chief investment officer of Crescent Grove Advisors , says that at some point next year we could see inflation tick back up, which could lead to market struggles, but right now barring "geopolitical mayhem," he sees the market as continuing to climb, and he notes that investors should be pressing their bets with equities rather than fixed income right now. Ironically, Krei discounts fixed income immediately after Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , makes an ultra-short...
Aug 29, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Ryan Myers, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management -- manager of the Causeway International Small Cap fund -- says that current valuations "are on par with some historical extremes where small caps go on to outperform fairly significantly." He likes opportunities in Japan, particularly after market troubles there earlier in August made valuations even more appealing, but he also says there are bargains to be had in European financials and AI-adjacent companies in Taiwan and Korea and e...
Aug 28, 2024•59 min
Jeff Weniger , head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management , says that while rate cuts tend to be good for the market, there is an unusual circumstance now where the cuts upend the Japanese yen carry trade. That created the market's short-lived August drawdown, but that circumstance could resurface; while the market has moved past that problem, Weniger notes that the Fed's expected actions in cutting rates are happening during a bull market run, which tends to be unusual, but which ha...
Aug 27, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage , expects a unique occurrence in Federal Reserve actions between now and election date, with inflation dropping down to its target rate of 2 percent while the labor market reaches equilibrium, with the unemployment rate hitting 4.5 percent. Rick says that good news -- which will be accompanied by rate cuts from the central bank -- will push any potential recession back into 2025 and possibly '26, with economic growth falling below 2 percent, under long-ter...
Aug 26, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler , says that he expects the economy to avoid a hard landing, and notes that some indicators would suggest that the economy is already in recession which means it will be over by late spring 2025, which should allow the earnings to start to pick up and fuel more growth next year. Johnson notes, further, that stock markets historically tend to perform well in the first six months after the start of a rate-cutting cycle; if the Federal Reserve ...
Aug 23, 2024•59 min
Tim Crawmer, chief global credit strategist at Payden & Rygel , says that the rise in the unemployment has not been driven by layoffs but rather by more people looking for work, which is a positive sign for the economy. Coupled with other good looks -- like the continued strength of the consumer pushing robust GDP expectations -- it should convince individual investors to position their portfolio "with the expectation that they will see a soft landing." Still, Crawmer, notes that high valuat...
Aug 22, 2024•59 min
Elliot Rosenberg, founder of Hack My Honeymoon , talks about strategies consumers can take to use miles, points and more to get free trips, accommodations and more, and while the savings is real, some of the advice -- involving opening multiple credit-card accounts to capture bonuses -- is not standard for consumers. Marci Stewart, director of client education for Schwab Workplace Financial Services discusses the firm's annual 401(k) Participant Study, which showed that more than 40 percent of w...
Aug 21, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments , says that the stock market had priced in a soft landing before the recent, temporary spike in volatility, but that action made investors realize that the potential for a hard landing is on the rise, even with Federal Reserve rate cuts on the way. Either way, Kelly says the long-term trend for the market will be positive, but he cautions that where markets go up during soft landings, investors get punished by hard landings unti...
Aug 20, 2024•58 min
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management , says the economic data has lined up so that the economy "can cruise through this soft landing, and not land." In the Big Interview, Haworth says that recessions have been held off for longer than expected up to now, but while he could see heightened volatility for the market for the rest of the year or beyond, the glass-half-full economy means that recession is not likely in the next year and a half. Economists -- as measu...
Aug 19, 2024•1 hr
Brij Khurana, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management , says that if either political party sweeps the election in November -- winning the presidency and control of Congress and the Senate -- the result will be higher bond yields, because the market will price in greater financing of deficits, but he notes that a divided government, the market will price in a bigger fiscal contraction regardless of who the president is, bringing yields down. Khurana says the Federal Reserve shoul...
Aug 16, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com , digs into the site's latest credit-card debt survey, which says that half of American credit cardholders are now carrying debt month-to-month, up six percentage points from the start of the year and the higher level since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. 50% carry debt month to month. This figure is up 6 percentage points from January and is the highest figure seen since March 2020. Rossman discusses the current numbers for credit-card...
Aug 15, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research , says the Federal Reserve has gotten inflation under control and is ready to start cutting, which will create an environment that favors stocks. That should make last week's sudden spike in volatility and nervousness a blip, likely forgotten quickly. Hayes talks about how the shift from rate hiking to rate cutting will impact investment strategy, noting that the improved environment for stocks should help broaden out the number...
Aug 14, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management , says that the economic fundamentals haven't changed despite recent headlines and heightened market volatility, but she says the time has come for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge that the economy has slowed but that inflation will remain above the 2 percent target for a while. She notes that whoever wins the presidential election likely will be presiding over an economy in recession, though she expects it to be mild, ...
Aug 13, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management , says that growth stocks are unlikely to beat value in a higher inflationary environment with higher rates, creating a nice tailwind for value, particularly because he expects inflation and high interest rates to remain sticky. He expects a synchronized rate-easing cycle across the globe, which makes him interested in taking a longer-term look at cyclical areas like energy and industrials. Christine Kieffer, se...
Aug 12, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide , says that despite the recent fears over economic numbers that sent the stock market scrambling last year, the economy is now set up for "a softer soft landing," especially if the federal Reserve cuts rates by at least 0.75 percent by the end of the year. Phillip Carlsson-Szlezak , global chief economist at BCG, says there is "nothing in the numbers today that is consistent with recession," and he notes that the big sell-off at the start of the we...
Aug 09, 2024•1 hr
Andrew Foster, chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners , is seeing a recovery in earnings and fundamentals in emerging markets, and that means that current events are creating froth and noise but that emerging markets should deliver over the intermediate to long-term. Foster says that investors looking to make quick trades will get burned in emerging markets, but says that the earnings recovery is broad-based by both country and by sector, which is encouraging. Foster also gives hi...
Aug 08, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Long-time personal-finance journalist John Waggoner says that investors who have been rooting for interest rate cuts and an end to inflation should be worrying about what they will have to go through to get there, because "The best cure for inflation is a recession," and while one is coming at some point, investors need to avoid being too scared during volatile times like now, when the economy is not recessionary. Also talking off the news, Odysseas Papadimitrou, chief executive officer at Walle...
Aug 07, 2024•1 hr 3 min
With the market melting down Monday and suffering its worst loss in over two years, Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust , says that wary investors are justifiably nervous, but they shouldn't be distracted from their long-term goals, which means staying diversified and invested and looking for opportunities. Stone does warn that the well-publicized opportunities in artificial intelligence may be a bit overblown now; while he believes AI technology will reshape industry and deli...
Aug 06, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com , says the details of Friday's jobs report "were the unmistakable signs of a slowing economy," and while a slowdown was expected based on recent trends in the indicators, the latest numbers spooked the market into thinking "maybe this economy isn't as robust we thought, maybe it's slowing a little more than we thought." He notes that the conditions are still far from anything that could be described as awful — the payroll number was still pos...
Aug 05, 2024•58 min
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers , says that since mid-July the market has been entering a "new market with a new theme and new leadership," rotating towards small-cap stocks and broadening out. Beyond small companies, Callahan's value-driven analysis currently favors dividend-paying stocks, gas utilities, life and health and property/casualty insurers too. In the NAVigator segment, Duncan Farley, portfolio manager on the Developed Markets Special Situations team at RBC B...
Aug 02, 2024•1 hr
Noah Wise, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments — in one of two interviews focused around Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement that rate cuts are nearly certain to start next month — says that the economic data has been so strong that it has become "a no-brainer" to cut, which is the ideal situation for making a move in a politically charged environment with a presidential election in sight. He expects the Fed to keep cutting so long as the data keeps moving in the right ...
Aug 01, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Geoff Dailey, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management , says in The Big Interview that he thinks "Any pullback should be bought" right now, noting that concerns over the economy, inflation, the strength of the consumer and more will add some volatility but are not likely to derail the market. Meanwhile, he notes that "small-caps in particular are poised for strong performance," noting that a huge valuation gap has emerged between those large-cap companies and the small-cap companie...
Jul 31, 2024•59 min
Marty Fridson , chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors , says that while politics dominates the news, it shouldn't be creeping into investors' portfolio moves, as available research shows that market results have proven to be better by riding the market regardless of the party that holds the White House than by trying to strategize around the results of a vote. Fridson also discusses how the current rally in artificial intelligence is reminiscent of the Internet Bubble Days,...
Jul 30, 2024•1 hr
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus - Mellon , says investors should "Never count out recessions," but he notes that the chances of one happening amid current economic strength are low, less than the 15 percent of the time that recessions normally happen. Moreover, he notes that recessions now and in the future may not look the way recessions did before the turn of the century. New York Times columnist Peter Goodman discusses his new book, "How The World Ran Out of ...
Jul 29, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management , says that while the stock market has been moving to record highs, "it wasn't healthy." He says that market valuations are overblown, with concentration in the index being more of a concern than at any time in history, which means that current conditions are lining up with some rare time periods, most notably the tech bubble days of the late 1990s, which ended turning ugly when the bubble burst. That's in contrast with the view...
Jul 26, 2024•58 min
Eric Crittenden, chief investment officer at Standpoint Asset Management , says the market has weakened to where there are no "great, super-strong trends out there," but he thinks the market is entering a transition period where new trends will start and emerge. That transition may not include a recession, Crittenden says, because "the algebra says to me that it's going to be hard to have a recession," due to the government actions that have staved it off and made it hard to forecast what's next...
Jul 25, 2024•1 hr
Jeffrey Hirsch, chief executive at Hirsch Holdings and editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac — which tracks stock market performance relative to presidential terms and election cycles — says that while the upcoming election is no longer a battle between two second-term presidents, the potential election of a first-term president in Kamala Harris would not result in much change for the market. While first-term presidents historically hit the ground running and make some of their most drastic moves...
Jul 24, 2024•59 min
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation for SLC Investments , says investors are "pretty risk-on," meaning they expect the economy is headed to an environment where rates will settle down at reasonable levels and consumers will keep spending, creating a sound environment for investors. That extends to Europe and some international markets, which will help balance a portfolio that may be impacted by a downturn late in the year, but Mullarkey says any downturn is likely to ...
Jul 23, 2024•56 min
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments , says that stock market valuations are extended to the point where "things need to be nearly perfect to justify those valuation levels." He is finding much better valuations internationally, noting that "Non-U.S. equity markets are cheap relative to the U.S. by an amount we have never seen before," which is why he is suggesting investors start nibbling and dollar-cost averaging into foreign markets now. Doll also reviews his ann...
Jul 22, 2024•58 min
