Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management , says that the economy is showing signs of slowing in some ways, while still having some measures being strong, and a lot of it is determined by consumers where the division between the haves and have-nots are growing, and where current conditions hurt people with less money dramatically more than the wealthy. Green says people are confusing the stock market's run to record highs as strength for the economy, which he says is misplaced...
Jul 19, 2024•59 min
Peter Repetto, vice president of investment strategy at iCapital , says that while rate cuts historically are good for markets — gaining roughly 9 percent in the year after cuts start historically — they do struggle if cuts are made during times of recession or downturn. Repetto expects a soft landing and moderate downturn, which is setting up for reasonably well for "rate-cut beneficiary" businesses moving forward. Repetto notes that markets also tend to gain in the 12 months after a presidenti...
Jul 18, 2024•1 hr
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says that as long as the economy "keeps humming along" and meets high expectations for earnings growth and stable balance sheets, the current rally should keep rolling. When that trend breaks, however, the market and economy could turn quickly; St. Aubin sees "some cracks starting to form" with consumers and with some of the economic data, and while a soft landing is possible, any problems are likely to get more painful. A...
Jul 17, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth , says that the market is in the early stages of an impressive bull market, noting that the current rally is now about 20 months old and that the market has dramatic gains since hitting lows in October 2022, but she notes that the average bull market runs longer and gains more and there's still plenty of room for that. She says "We're feeling great about this market. We love it from a fundamental standpoint ... and on a technical b...
Jul 16, 2024•59 min
Michael Mullaney, Director of Global Markets Research at Boston Partners , says that the stock market is trading far enough above moving averages that it's due for a correction on the short term. As that pullback happens, he expects the Federal Reserve to kick in with rate cuts beginning in September, driven more by the jobs report than inflation numbers, but he notes that may not have more than a short-term stimulative effect. Mullaney says that while the broad economy may be able to put off an...
Jul 15, 2024•1 hr
Jerremy Newsome, founder of Real Life Trading, says that with the election looming after the traditional summer-fall doldrums — and having already hit his profit targets for the year — he is about to move 100 percent into cash. "I think it's too easy right now," he says. "We're too high, it's too easy, everything is going straight up ... no reason not to be all up in cash up here for me." Newsome was clear that he's selling into strength and locking in profits, because he does think the market w...
Jul 12, 2024•58 min
Tim Urbanowicz, head of investment strategy and research for the Innovator ETFs , says that the current bull market run has the stock market hitting new highs roughly every four days, which is fast compared even to the Internet bubble days, and while investors are nervous that things must take a turn, he points out that hitting all-time highs has never been a catalyst for a sell-off, and isn't likely to be one now. That makes it crucial for investors to manage risk and balance their fear of loss...
Jul 11, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. , says the economic cycle is now in its last stages, and while there may be a blow-off top before trouble is here, he expects a recession and he will not be surprised if it occurs after the Federa;l Reserve cuts interest rates. While many observers expect cuts to help markets, Schutte says that the Fed has never been able to take an overheated economy and cool it without triggering a recession. He added that ...
Jul 10, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research , says the market needs to "digest its gains," which he expects to turn into a "low teens selloff," but that will be a bull market correction and not a catastrophic event like the 2008 financial crisis. Stovall expects the Federal Reserve to make cuts starting in September, but he notes that the central bank is going to wait until it absolutely must make a move rather than making any change simply because the market is anticipating one, and ...
Jul 09, 2024•58 min
David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs , was still in a festive Fourth of July mood, so instead of going to his usual spot in "The Danger Zone," he picked a quality, classic American business as a potential buy, singling out HF Sinclair, the oil company, for "The Attractive Zone." Between consistent growth in its dividend and stock buy-backs, Trainer says HF Sinclair could have a potential yield of 10 percent or more. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau ch...
Jul 08, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Nikolaj Schmidt, chief international economist at T. Rowe Price , says he's expecting a correction soon "but it's not going to be something too deep or too dark or too scary," noting that the economic backdrop remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve can likely finish the year with just one rate cut. Schmid discusses T. Rowe's 2024 Mid-Year Outlook , and notes that he is concerned that with foreign central banks already having cut rates, the Fed's timing is now more critical because it doe...
Jul 05, 2024•59 min
David Lubchenco, partner at Chautauqua Capital Management , says that the underperformance of foreign stocks for several years has been so extreme that relative valuations look good and international stocks are poised for a strong run whenever the market's next cycle begins. Lubchenco says that when there is a concentrated market like what investors have seen during the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks, it portends change ahead, which makes this a good time for investors to make sure they ta...
Jul 03, 2024•59 min
Xander Gray, founder and chief executive officer at XG Capital Strategies , says that a bear market is coming, with a number of potential catalysts contributing to trigger the downturn. He says that while he expects a downturn of up to 30 percent, he does not expect it to take long. Further Gray says that for investors who have not been buying now likely want to wait until next year, with the market around record highs but likely to have at least a minor blow-off before the real bear market show...
Jul 02, 2024•59 min
Jeff Timlin, head of municipal strategies at Sage Advisory Services , says that potential problems surfacing in the California and New York municipal bond markets are telegraphing "an economic slowdown nationally," but that investors should not worry about a significant increase in defaults, and should instead find munis becoming increasingly attractive once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. David Trainer, president of New Constructs , puts electric-vehicle maker Nio back into The Danger...
Jul 01, 2024•1 hr
D.R. Barton Jr., Director of Market Research at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles , says the longest cycles suggest that the market is topping out now, but 'near-term overbought doesn't bother me right now.' He is expecting more upside into the election and carrying into 2025 before any downturn is more dramatic than a simple buying opportunity. He says that he doesn't expect much downside risk until or unless the Standard & Poor's 500 falls below the 5,300 level; meanwhile the market i...
Jun 28, 2024•58 min
Matt Gertken, chief strategist for global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research , says investors should be factoring in geopolitics and the upcoming U.S. election now, because current uncertainty could cause a downturn "soon, at any time." But once the election is sorted out, whoever wins — and no matter the policies they pursue — is facing the inevitabilities of the economic cycle. Gertken is clear that he doesn't see the kind of economic imbalances that would cause a market cataclysm aki...
Jun 27, 2024•59 min
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management thinks the current protracted economic cycle "will end the same way that almost every cycle has," with high interest rates triggering trouble before rate cuts and a downturn that resets the market and repositions it for growth. Roland is hopeful the economy can avoid a hard landing — and she notes that heightened government spending that has helped the current economy could keep it going longer — but says she is w...
Jun 26, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments , expects the market to start a new leg up and rally, but he notes that it has to go through a shake up and get to where rate cuts start before that uptick starts in earnest. Ladner notes he is "a whole lot more confident about the next six months than the next six weeks," noting that current conditions — with steady or falling interest rates and growth in earnings — "doesn't translate into bad markets." While those conditions don't a...
Jun 25, 2024•1 hr
Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute , says the market will take a break of as much as 10 percent, and he is looking for that kind of setback before getting back to being fully invested. That said, he expects the economy to pivot out of slowdown mode and "into a more sustainable growth path, but probably not until later this year or early in 2025." David Trainer, founder/president of New Constructs , puts a popular consumer name into the Da...
Jun 24, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James , says that summers tend to be more volatile and while the market has been up seven of the last eight summers, those gains have had to overcome significant drawdowns, and he thinks that pattern will repeat with an "overbought" market now. Adam still expects two rate cuts, which should avert a recession, although the economy will likely struggle and will be setting up a rougher year in 2025. Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research ...
Jun 21, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Howard Yaruss , professor at New York University and author of "Understandable Economics,” says the Federal Reserve should "consider a small rate cut, as soon as possible," in part because the central bank has done a good job — as measured by certain inflation measures — in at least coming close to its target levels, but also because other central bankers around the globe have started to cut, and there could be some issues arising if U.S. monetary policy is out of sync with the rest of the world...
Jun 20, 2024•1 hr
Dedicated value investor John Buckingham, editor of The Prudent Speculator and principal portfolio manager at Kovitz Investment Group , says that the long run of the Magnificent Seven has not made it impossible for value investors to hold some of them, noting that while the very hottest don't meet the definition of value, other tech giants like Alphabet and Meta Platforms are trading at levels that shouldn't scare the bargain hunters away. He discusses his buying and trimming strategy in the Mar...
Jun 18, 2024•1 hr 2 min
When Chuck turned 62 last week, he became eligible to claim Social Security benefits, and while he always expected to wait as long as possible before collecting, his own health history, his recent marriage and the passing of some friends of similar ages prompted him to revisit the entire Social Security claiming decision, because deciding when to claim benefits — and how much to let them grow or how to handle them if you take them early — may be the single most important financial decision most ...
Jun 17, 2024•59 min
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International , says that as the market settles into long-term grown and moderating inflation, it's a good environment for financial markets to broaden out, where he expects more normal relationships between domestic and international stocks and large-company and small-cap stocks. "The market is never about seven stocks or 10 stocks," Sanchez says, which is "a healthy reminder as we look ahead to make sure your portfolio is diversi...
Jun 14, 2024•1 hr
Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn , says that "this obsession with Fed policy is misplaced," noting that government spending has helped prop up the economy and hidden weakness in the economy. He's concerned about "overall slippage" in the economy; as an investor who factors the news into his investment choices, McIntyre is staying away from retailers and most financial names, but is gravitating toward utilities and energy producers, as well as companies that are part of t...
Jun 13, 2024•59 min
Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade corporate bonds at Payden & Rygel , says that companies prepared for the high-interest rate environment in advance, in ways that have allowed the bond market to avoid the rise in defaults that typically hits during rate hikes, but that also contributed to stronger economic growth, which has allowed inflation to be sticky without a lot of pain to the economy. It's part of why the inverted yield curve hasn't indicated a recession yet, and Trevithick...
Jun 12, 2024•1 hr
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs , says that he has no problem with higher-than-planned inflation levels so long as nominal economic growth is there. "Investors don't really profit off of Federal Reserve changes," he says, "they profit off of growth in the economy, and that's what we should be focused on." Gene Peroni, founder of Peroni Portfolio Advisors , says that "The market is sensing something quite significantly positive on the horizon, based on its trends." H...
Jun 11, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners , says that the U.S. economy remains strong, there are some headwinds facing the stock market and that investors should go back to basics — diversifying across borders and industries and looking for investments they will hold long-term. Mills made it clear that he's optimistic for the long term, noting that investors are more likely to be thrown off by the problems that are not yet obvious — "It's not the monster in the closet that gets you," he says, "it's...
Jun 10, 2024•1 hr
Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF , says there's "a lot of stock in a lot of weak hands," which tends to lead to a serious correction, and he says the market is due for a 15 to 25 percent pullback. Further, he notes that bear market corrections tend to "be more significant" in a high-rate market like the one being faced today; Lamensdorf notes that while the market is near record highs and has gone up sharply this year, s...
Jun 07, 2024•59 min
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com , discusses a just-released survey which shows that Americans are getting fed up with being asked to leave a tip at everything from a self-service checkout counter to a pick-your-own strawberry farm. The survey showed that nearly 3 in 5 American adults have at least one negative view of tipping , with a surprising number being upset enough that they have stopped tipping even at sit-down restaurants. Bruce Kahn, lead portfolio manager at Shelto...
Jun 06, 2024•1 hr 2 min
