Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager on the global, international and emerging markets small-cap teams at Seven Canyons Advisors , says that "near-shoring" or "China plus one" supply-chain diversification will "be the dominant force in international markets over the next decade." Kutusov says that geopolitical pressure and rising labor costs have pushed companies out of China or made them open additional capabilities elsewhere, most notably in India and Mexico. Plus, international interest rates ar...
Apr 23, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute , expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but no more than twice this year and in September at the earliest, and he says it's increasingly likely the moves won't start until 2025. The amazing thing, Wren says, is that the stock market got to where it was flirting with record highs despite investors adjusting from six projected cuts this year down to potentially none. He says market valuations are high and he ex...
Apr 22, 2024•59 min
Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group , says that two wars have had less impact on markets that many observers have expected because the market has recognized that geopolitical events require a direct tie to earnings before they can truly dampen gains. Because of that -- but also because of issues he sees with the domestic economy -- Papic says investors who are giving up on international markets and getting their diversification by overweighting U.S. multinational stocks are making ...
Apr 19, 2024•1 hr
David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large Cap and Small Cap Financials funds , says that investors should not expect the classic thinking of lower rates equals higher margins and bank stocks go up, because the math may not work that way this time, which is why he is hoping rates stay where they are for longer. Ellison says that the Federal Reserve should wait until something about the economy breaks if it wants to help the banking sector, which needs to go through its classic cycle...
Apr 18, 2024•56 min
Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors , says he's not particularly worried about what two current wars and other issues are doing to the economy ad stock market now, but that his real worry is federal policies in terms of fiscal expenditures. "To me, that doesn't look sustainable, and that looks more like an emerging market than, basically, the leader of the free world." He says most of the conditions are in place in the U.S. for an inflationary medium-term outlook, though h...
Apr 17, 2024•1 hr
Dan Zanger, founder and chief technical analyst at ChartPattern.com , says that he has followed the leaders out of the market, noting that the artificial-intelligence companies that had led the market's rally to new highs have now gone into consolidations and he's content to accept money-market returns until the market changes its tune and the charts stop suggesting that they want to go lower. Also on the show, Herb Greenberg -- longtime journalist and financial analyst -- talks about his new fi...
Apr 16, 2024•56 min
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research , says the economy is resilient enough to handle current levels of interest rates, and that better economic growth will allow earnings to drive the stock market higher even as anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are put off until 2025. Yardeni says he expects the rest of this decade to resemble the Roaring 20s, without irrational exuberance but also without the Great Depression to follow as it did a hundred ...
Apr 15, 2024•59 min
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union , says that the current issues keeping inflation high are about supply-side economics and are the kinds of problems that the Federal Reserve can't just fix by cutting interest rates. So while he sees the Fed as having pulled off the soft landing earlier this year, it can't "save us" this time, although he says the strong economy should ensure that the cycle should play out without a crash or catastrophe. Ann Somers Hogg, director for...
Apr 12, 2024•1 hr
With Wednesday's release of the latest Consumer Price Index numbers shaking the market's confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, Chuck gets the latest take from Christian Chan, chief investment officer at AssetMark , and Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist at BlackRock . Both see the Fed as acting, though Chan expects the central bankers to wait longer until conditions almost force a move; Chaudhuri still sees cuts later in the year, though she says a June...
Apr 11, 2024•1 hr
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors , says that inflation staying stubbornly above the target of the Federal Reserve -- despite the central bank's moves that have raised interest rates to 20-year highs -- has created the kind of market conditions in which gold, historically, has thrived. He does not think gold's success is necessarily due to its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, because that requires inflation sustained at levels above 5 per...
Apr 10, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research , says the bullish sentiment and investor optimism should lift the commodities market and help the market rally keep rolling, though he says investors should be worried that conditions are taking a turn for the worse when more stocks are making new lows rather than new highs or the Standard & Poor's 500 falls below its long-term average. He says the Federal Reserve may decide not to cut rates until those conditions appear, noting th...
Apr 09, 2024•1 hr
Bill Adams , chief economist at Comerica Bank says 2024 will end up as "a pretty good year for the economy," with the soft nearly in place as the Fed starts to cut rates in the summer. He notes that worries about an interest-rate shock or an energy-price shock -- the big two drivers of recession -- are not exceptionally high right now and any raised concerns in those areas have enough offsets for the U.S. economy to remain the world's best while global turmoil and economic uncertainty plays out....
Apr 08, 2024•1 hr
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research , turned positive on the market back in November and he's not ready to ring the register and close out the current rally just yet, though there are some metrics showing that "the market is about as overextended as it's been historically before you get a correction." That doesn't make him nervous or worried, but he says that's a symptom rather than a sell signal. Meanwhile, he sees a bull market running in commodities and he intends to ride t...
Apr 05, 2024•1 hr
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , says that American investors who have some $6 trillion in cash are in danger of missing out as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in coming months, meaning they should focus on what they are doing with their cash-like investments. That's why he made Fidelity Limited Term Bond his "ETF of the Week," noting that unexciting -- but in line with expectations -- is something investors should be striving for right now, so that they are protec...
Apr 04, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at the Macro Institute , says that people should not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in hopes of rescuing the economy or keeping the market rally rolling. Instead, he says the Fed tends to cut rates when things go wrong, which he expects to happen by the middle of the year, when bad economic news starts piling up. Nick is not expecting the proverbial soft landing, noting that macro indicators like the inverted yield curve and more are stil...
Apr 03, 2024•59 min
David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com and the president at Sierra Alpha Research , says the market's first quarter was much stronger than he expected, avoiding a low that he was expecting. The current low-volatility incline the market is on reminded Keller of 2021, a time when the market was recovering from Covid and kept driving higher despite concerns. Keller says that he is watching for danger signs like a spike in volatility or deterioration in breadth indicators, but lack...
Apr 02, 2024•1 hr
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings , says that he doesn't see the economy going into a recession, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates "at a leisurely pace" and to get through inflation-reduction with a soft landing. Gruenwald recently raised his growth projection for the economy and he says the strong economy is letting the Fed take its time in cutting rates, but that current levels of 5.25 percent are too high. He doesn't expect the central bank to cut rates below 3...
Apr 01, 2024•59 min
Kim Blanton of the Boston College Center for Retirement Research – where she writes the Squared Away blog -- says that Americans wind up falling into some classic psychological traps when it comes time to claim Social security benefits , and often take the money before they need it based on flawed thinking, reducing their retirement benefits for life. She highlights how savers -- even when confronted with numbers showing that their lifetime benefits will be significantly better with a late start...
Mar 28, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research , says that the big picture still argues for overweigting stocks relative to bonds and cash so long as the Federal Reserve follows through on making rate cuts and the economy avoids recession. While economic conditions make it look like a soft landing is in place now, Kalish is concerned about the outlook for 2025, noting that his concern level rises the longer the Fed holds off on rate cuts. Kalish says that the central bank can cut rates...
Mar 27, 2024•1 hr
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel , says that current conditions -- with inflation falling significantly year-over-year and no attendant hike in unemployment and no recession -- are the proverbial soft landing, and he believes these conditions can persist at least through the rest of the year. The soft landing as the dominant macro story will give the Federal Reserve leeway to cut interest rates less than expected, Cleveland says, and he expects central bankers to make cut...
Mar 26, 2024•1 hr
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers , says "This is one of the most momentum-driven markets I can recall ... where the winning stocks in one month continue to be the winning stocks the next month and then continue to win again the following month." Yet he believes in being fearful at times when others are greedy, because there are enough warning signs to make investors justifiably concerned that the rally can't last forever. Sosnick says now that the strong economy has ...
Mar 25, 2024•59 min
Scott Colyer, chief executive officer at Advisors Asset Management , says he is cautious right now, but the cyclicals, materials, energy and health care tend to be strong during periods when the Federal Reserve is bringing interest rates down. He suggests riding that trend, saying "You take your cue from the Fed, now is the time that you want risk-on. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors , says he expects the stock market to have its average draw-down of 14 percent at so...
Mar 22, 2024•58 min
Cheryl Smith, economist/portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management , sees the economic tide as running out, and that it will be taking the stock market with it, and while she does not think it will be a steep, sharp, protracted drop, she does say investors will want to prepare for it. She suggests keeping the portfolio simple, rather than going after alternative investments built to make money even when the market is down; she says investors will likely prefer buying U.S. multinational compa...
Mar 21, 2024•1 hr
Kim Blanton, writer at the Boston College Center for Retirement Research, calls the search for assisted living "an opaque experience" and notes -- through the story of her mother but also reporting from a hearing before the Senate Committee on Aging from January -- that most people focus more on the "living" part of the issues when they should be paying most attention to the assistance part of the plan. Nick Young, chief experience officer at Money Pickle joins Chuck on The Financial Crunch to d...
Mar 20, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute , says that the market's recent rally appears to have run out of steam, requiring "a little bit of a breather" before the market makes more real upward progress. He expects a 5 to 10 percent pullback, with Standard & Poor's 500 using the 5,000 level as its new support level and the uptrend only being threatened if the sell-off pushes it below 4,600. Jay Zagorsky, a professor who studies the gaming industry...
Mar 19, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Macro strategist Larry McDonald , creator of The Bear Traps Report , says that the current economic situation is "very 1980s like," a condition that requires different strategies than what most investors have used since the financial crisis of 2008. In a '1980s recession,' a very hot economy keeps inflation ripping and pushes oil prices high, and leaves the bottom 60 percent of the population struggling to keep up, and he says consumers are starting to show that tension now. The conditions shoul...
Mar 18, 2024•1 hr
Kevin "Lex" Luthringhausen, chief content officer at Tradier Hub , says he has been stubbornly short the stock market expecting a mild pullback that hasn't been coming because the market is "insanely bullish" right now, having pushed stocks, gold and cryptocurrency into record territory. While Luthringhausen is confident that there will be a consolidation, he does not expect "a massive sell-off" until after the presidential election, when he foresees a potential 10 percent correction; in the int...
Mar 15, 2024•1 hr
Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research , says that he expects the stock market to surprise investors in 2024 "the way it did in 2023," producing the kind of double-digit gains that are typical of the second year of a bull market. Once the market gets into the third year of the current bull run -- in 2025, after the presidential election -- he expects a turn because "that's when bull markets tend to die an early death." Stovall notes that while he thinks the market could take a pa...
Mar 14, 2024•1 hr
Tony DeSpirito , global chief investment officer of fundamental equities at BlackRock -- lead portfolio manager of the BlackRock Equity Dividend fund -- says that the Federal Reserve will be more concerned with inflation than deflation for the next three to five years, keeping interest rates relatively high and creating more market volatility; he says that increased back and forth will make for good opportunities for active management to deliver market-beating results. DeSpirito is looking for s...
Mar 13, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler , says that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & poor's 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are all "trading at the very upper end of an 18-month trading range and this is not usually where you start a whole other leg higher," so he expects a correction back to about 4,600 on the S&P in the next six weeks. When that move is finished, Johnson expects the market to resume its upturn but then to settle into a "high-level trading range...
Mar 12, 2024•1 hr 1 min
