Jeff Kolitch, portfolio manager for the Baron Real Estate and Baron Real Estate Income funds, says that the scary headlines about real estate -- and particularly commercial real estate -- have been an over-reaction and says investors want to be looking at real estate stocks now rather than waiting for "an all-clear signal" on the industry. "The best time to step in is when there's angst out there," Kolitch says, "and we like the set-up and think it's a great time to lean into real estate." Kyle ...
Mar 11, 2024•59 min
Alaina Anderson, co-portfolio manager at the William Blair International Leaders Fund , says that when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates -- which she expects in the second half of the year -- which should soften up the U.S. dollar, a situation that would make foreign stocks more attractive. She notes that she particularly likes Japan right now, and is guarded on China, where both performance and geopolitical issues are creating genuine worries. In The NAVigator, Cory Johnson of P...
Mar 08, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors , says the market is not pricing in geopolitical risks adequately, so while things look good for the U.S. economy, the domestic stock market could be more vulnerable to global financial events that could trigger a downturn. Sargen also discusses why economists are worse than weathermen when it comes to forecasting future storms. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a young, granular actively managed fun...
Mar 07, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Mike Buckius, chief executive officer at Gateway Investment Advisers , says that the concentration at the top of the market and the rate cycle and the Federal Reserve's delays in cutting rates have made it that investors should manage risks, because valuations have gotten frothy and drawdowns "throw investors off of their long-term plans." He says that the market's bounce-back to record highs makes it feel like stocks are due for 'a pause and consolidation,' which is the kind of time when Gatewa...
Mar 06, 2024•1 hr
The optimists and the pessimists will be served today on Money Life, as two interviews look at the same market but come to wildly different conclusions. Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading , says in the "Talking Technicals" segment that she "sees some really big red flags waving," and that it will get rocky as the market backs away from being "extremely over-extended." She expects the market to take a turn for the worse, though she thinks election-year conditions may p...
Mar 05, 2024•59 min
Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management , says that valuations abroad are better than what investors are seeing domestically -- noting that international small cap stocks are trading at a discount of 10 times compared to domestic large-cap companies -- but made it clear he favors Japan and India while worrying that geopolitical issues are making it difficult to invest in China despite compelling valuations that have it among the cheapest nations in the world. Plus, Kyle...
Mar 04, 2024•1 hr
Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins , says that the gold market is surprised by how strongly the price of gold has held above the $2,000 level this year despite "rather tepid demand for physical cold in North America in Europe." Millman notes that there is a geopolitical premium on gold right now, which combined with the election year and concerns over inflation and interest rates has helped prices hold current levels, and he expects it to trade sideways until there ...
Mar 01, 2024•57 min
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, multi-asset strategist at Wellington Management -- the global investment strategist for the Hartford Funds -- says that she prefers equities to bonds right now, despite fixed income delivering its best returns in years, noting that she particularly likes dividend paying stocks, both in the U.S. and in Europe. Jacobson also likes Japan, but she dislikes emerging markets and is particularly wary of China right now. Todd Rosenbluth at VettaFi likes the looks of a relativel...
Feb 29, 2024•1 hr
Meb Faber , chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments , says value investing is poised for success, not just in the United States -- where the market has been dominated by a few high-priced big names -- but globally, and particularly in emerging markets where the technology names that almost never trade at discounts here are bargain-priced now. In a wide-ranging interview, Faber discusses how the market's run has highlighted the disfunction of some conventional indexes,...
Feb 28, 2024•1 hr
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp. , says that there are plenty of minor, nagging concerns about the market, but the major trend is up "and until there is evidence such as falling breadth or deteriorating volume" and more, investors should ride the trend higher. Kahn notes that the Magnificent Seven -- which have led the market higher -- have gone up so much that any bad news for them "could be a real problem" that would drag the index down, but there are other opportuni...
Feb 27, 2024•1 hr
Bill Davis, portfolio manager at Stance Capital -- which managed the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF -- says companies in the bottom two-thirds of the Standard & Poor's 500 are poised to out perform moving forward as the stock market moves back towards normalcy with more stocks sharing in the solid economic underpinnings and the Magnificent Seven stocks and other giants having reduced role in the market's growth. Likewise, Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management...
Feb 26, 2024•1 hr
Bill Nygren, co-manager of the Oakmark Fund , says investors should expect slower growth from the market for the next decade; as a result, he says "the long-term equity investor should probably be thinking about something on the order of 7or 8 percent a year rather than the double-digit level." There will still be buys, Nygrem says, but investors will need to go against the herd -- and be selective amongst names like the Magnificent Seven stocks -- in order to find them. John Cole Scott, preside...
Feb 23, 2024•1 hr
Bernie Horn, long-time manager of Polaris Global Value , says that value stocks have outperformed growth stocks outside of the United States for several years and he expects the domestic markets to follow suit as central banks keep interest rates higher, creating positive real returns for fixed income and ending some of the bubbles caused in equity sectors caused by years of borrowings at interest rates near zero. While he expects the change to be global, Horn notes that he favors international ...
Feb 22, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners , says that the Federal Reserve is not going to give the market the five or more interest rate cuts it has been expecting. As a result, he suggests banking on bond yields that will stay higher for longer, even if the central bank gives a token cut or two; on stocks, he expects a better growth picture without a recession or a big correction, but because valuations are high he is looking to securities with earnings power, so he is thinking mega-cap...
Feb 21, 2024•1 hr 5 min
David Giroux, manager of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation -- a fund that has beaten the performance of its average peer for a record 16 straight calendar years -- says that while U.S. stock valuations have gotten lofty, investors "don't need to diversify into a worse geography," and says investors can get international exposure by buying U.S. multi-nationals and have better companies. Domestically, Giroux says that the mega-cap Magnificent Seven stocks have gotten expensive but they are still ...
Feb 20, 2024•59 min
Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management , says that several European nations are in recession while their stock markets are pushing through record highs , in conditions so unusual that U.S. activities are helping foreign multinationals keep rolling. Still, Miskin believes the U.S. is the best market, though he is now skewing the portfolio toward mid-cap names, pulling back slightly on the mega-cap giants over valuation concerns and leaning into bonds for...
Feb 16, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Rick Pitcairn, chief global strategist at Pitcairn , says that while the markets have been dominated by monetary policy for the last decade or more, the next 20 years will see fiscal policy will be equally or more important because of how the government borrows money and what it needs to take on in new debts to keep rolling. Pitcairn acknowledges that the current dysfunction in Washington worries him about how policies will be set and the potential fallout from gridlock. In the Market Call, Dan ...
Feb 15, 2024•1 hr 1 min
David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- author of the Haymaker newsletter focused on macroeconomic research -- says that 'Pseudo prosperity is still prosperity,' and investors should like whatever they are getting from the economy now because he does not think it will last. Hay says the market "is almost all-in on Goldilocks," which will "make it hard to make money betting on the soft landing." Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments -- co-author of Tony Robbins ' n...
Feb 14, 2024•57 min
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts , says that the stock market is "crashing higher," having reached record levels with no signs of stopping but that doesn't mean he's buying now because he finds it over-stretched. De Kempenaer sees the market going through rotation right now, with money flowing from value into growth right now helping to push things higher. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association returns to the show to discuss the Ja...
Feb 13, 2024•1 hr
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network , says that while market valuations are high right now on a historic basis -- which might make investors cautious -- the sky-high prices for the Magnificent Seven stocks that have been leading the market to record levels have left room for the other stocks in the index to be particularly reasonable. That means the market's overall valuation is more reasonable than headlines suggest, and there is room to grow in other sect...
Feb 12, 2024•1 hr
Jeff Rosenkranz, fixed income portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management , says that if the Federal Reserve waits too long to cut rates or if systemic problems resurface -- including potential troubles with bank safety -- the economy could be due for more trouble than most observers expect. Rosenkranz expects to see a significant increase in credit troubles and defaults, noting that the classic default cycle that accompanies rate hikes hasn't really occurred yet, but that it's unlikely to b...
Feb 09, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors , is worried that with 'all of Wall Street being bullish again," overblown earnings expectations, strong employment and the more getting the Federal Reserve to where it will wait longer before cutting rates, the stock market has gotten a bit overblown. As a result, she thinks there's a good chance of a short-term correction, potentially down to the 4,400 level on the Standard & Poor's 500, though she does think there's a good chance the market c...
Feb 08, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Today, Money Life debuts its latest feature, The Financial Crunch with Money Pickle , a fin-tech company that is changing the financial world by making affordable and convenient financial coaching available to investors. Brent Thurman, Money Pickle's chief executive, discusses finding a financial adviser and how investors have it so much better now that technology can make the process smooth and easy. Kelley Wright, editor at Investment Quality Trends , returns to the show for the first time sin...
Feb 07, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Jim Thorne, economist/chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth , says that "The Fed is the Fed of the world," and that how central bankers act in the United States act will determine the economic prospects of the rest of the world, and he worries that as the Federal Reserve tightens, it could over-tighten and create economic issues. He expects a growth shock, but says the U.S. will get through it and remain the best market to invest in around the globe. Michele Schneider, chief...
Feb 06, 2024•59 min
Pedro Palandrani, head of research at Global X , says that the continued evolution of the electric vehicle market will make it so that lithium and copper companies are the next equivalent of the Big Oil stocks, but he worries that the industries are among the most sensitive globally to geopolitical risk, which he says investors should factor into their allocation decisions. In honor of the upcoming Valentine's Day holiday, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs foregoes the Dange...
Feb 05, 2024•59 min
Jim Welsh, author of "Macro Tides" and the "Weekly Technical Review" newsletters says that if the market can rally past recent highes -- with the Standard & Poor's 500 topping 4931 -- it will finish the market's recent rally and leave stocks vulnerable to a small correction over the next few months. That said, Welsh believes in a 17-year cycle that his charts show dates back nearly 100 years, and that cycle is cooking up a coming secular bear market that ultimately could last for a decade an...
Feb 02, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , says investors should be looking at an equal-weighted approach to the market -- allowing all winners to have a chance to succeed -- despite the strong 2023 put up by the Standard & Poor's 500, a market-cap weighted index whose results were dominated by the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks. Rosenbluth made the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF his ETF of the Week, noting that while the tech sector is a big part of most asset alloc...
Feb 01, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Mark Hebner, chief executive officer at Index Fund Advisors , says that the dominant action of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks is nothing new, and that the market has long shown a propensity for companies to have oversized performance as their shares moved into the top 10 of an index, only to then regress toward the mean. It's not just why he thinks the Magnificent Seven will cool off in the not-too-distant future, but it reinforces investors using index funds to ride out the market rathe...
Jan 31, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments , says that the Federal Reserve seems to have pulled off the rare soft landing, and that portends good things ahead because previous soft landings -- in 1964, 1984 and 1994 -- the markets mostly rewarded investors who invested "as if it was late cycle," where growth funds tend to lead the way. Kelly does think the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself, but still thinks the year should be positive; he also notes that investors ...
Jan 30, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research -- which focuses on earnings results for much of its forecasting -- says that with about one quarter of companies having now reported earnings results for 2023, the numbers look like "more of the same, more of the good stuff." He doesn't expect growth to be impressive this year, but there's also not much negative guidance or gloomy outlooks from companies, and he expects that mixed but largely benign environment to last through the y...
Jan 29, 2024•59 min
