Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments , says that at surface levels it looks "like the Fed will stick the soft landing," but he notes that the markets "are primed and priced for that," and if the central bank falls short on its goals and inflation is more persistent than expected, that could be where trouble shows up for the stock market. Timmer says that part of his outlook on the Federal Reserve is that many of the conditions that lead to recession have played out, b...
Dec 12, 2023•59 min
Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, says that while he believes the Federal Reserve is done increasing interest rates, it's not yet close to cutting them, and investors will want to lock in good returns for the longer term, so he is starting to lengthen maturities now to protect against reinvestment risk. Rosen notes that he does not currently expect a severe economic downturn in 2024, because he doesn't see the major imbalances or problems that typically cause a rece...
Dec 11, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments , says that "higher for longer is not a strategy," which means that the Federal Reserve is setting up investors for a longer-lasting fallout than investors expect now. As a result, Merk says that the downside risk of the market right now is much greater than the upside potential now. Jeff Bishop of Raging Bull and Bullseye Trades sees the market as taking a small setback before the start of a Santa Claus ral...
Dec 08, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Jay Jacobs, U.S. Head of Thematic and Active Equity ETFs at BlackRock , says in The Big Interview that artificial intelligence will move from the early stage where people are investing because they love the concept into its commercialization phase where investors are attracted by the profits as they see new technologies emerge and start to take hold in 2024. Among his other investment themes for the year ahead, medical innovation, which he also expects to be helped along by the use of AI. Also o...
Dec 07, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management , sees a series of rolling recession hitting certain sectors and industries in 2024, but does not see a broad-based, classic and deep recession akin to one triggered by the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He's not alone in suggesting the economy can escape next year without a recession, as Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments says in the Market Call that he believes the stock market and economy are strong enoug...
Dec 06, 2023•59 min
John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management , says that both stocks and bonds are relatively cheap right now, noting that if you back out the companies that have led the market this year -- the so-called "Magnificent Seven" -- stocks are trading at about 14 times earnings, which is a discount to where the market has been since the 1950s. Petrides says the biggest issues for 2024 will be whether the Federal Reserve can stick the landing without throwing the economy into reces...
Dec 05, 2023•1 hr
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. , says the best situation for the economy and market is 'a continuation of the roll through,' where rolling recessions allow some sectors to rebound while current weakness plays out. Sonders notes that while others include the presidential election cycle into their thinking, she doesn't put much emphasis on the election especially when there are constraints -- like debt, deficit and interest costs -- that make it hard for p...
Dec 04, 2023•59 min
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial , says that rolling recessions haven't eliminated the possibility of a true, classic recession but she doesn't think there will be anything more than a shallow downturn in 2024 as the economy continues slowing to resolve inflation and other headline issues. She expects stocks to deliver "a comfortable return" in 2024, but with volatility and a "healthy" move toward equilibrium. Don Vandenbord, chief investment officer at Revere Asset Manage...
Dec 01, 2023•1 hr 4 min
Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel , says that the stock market "is a couple of hundred points ahead of where we should be," which means there's not a lot of upside here, but he does expect the factors driving the market to keep shifting away from growth and more towards value stocks. He says value and international stocks move together, and he expects them to turn positive now as value, international and small-cap stocks have been oversold. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of V...
Nov 30, 2023•58 min
Steven Dover , chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says the stock market currently is priced for perfection that is unlikely to happen, noting that there has never been a time when the economy has slowed down but earnings have increased, but with consensus earnings growth estimates running in double digits, something appears to be off-kilter now. That makes Dover cautious on stocks, though he acknowledges that dividend-paying s...
Nov 29, 2023•59 min
Two different analysts -- looking at the economy and market from varying viewpoints -- agree on today's show that there is trouble ahead for the stock market and economy in 2024, and that the election cycle -- which historically holds that presidential election years are good times for the market -- isn't going to be able to keep trouble at bay until 2025. Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments , says that the Federal Reserve's actions have postponed recession and...
Nov 28, 2023•1 hr 2 min
It's Cyber Monday and Chuck offers an alternative to the usual gift-buying pattern by talking about how savers and investors can now give gifts of stock easily and efficiently, teaching children and young adults like-long lessons about saving and investing. Moreover, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com stops by and discusses gifts from the past that haven't worked out so well, based on the site's research showing that Americans routinely have gift cards they have not used. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch of Hirsch...
Nov 27, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Clyde McGregor, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Equity and Income fund -- who is retiring at the end of the year -- returns to Money life noting that one of his former partners liked to say that "The hardest time to invest is always right now." That's how he feels today, with stocks feeling expensive and with so much money piled into the top stocks in the big indexes -- because past times when there was that concentration have played out poorly for the broad market -- but he notes that his fun...
Nov 24, 2023•1 hr
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac , says that the stock market is right on track with expected calendar effects, which he sees as continuing through a Santa Claus rally and a positive January Barometer -- which portends a good year ahead for 2024. Further, citing the history of election-year market patterns, Hirsch says he expects the market to stay strong during 2024, holding off a recession and a bear market until 2025. That would be in keeping with classic election-cycle pa...
Nov 22, 2023•55 min
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. , says a recession is likely for 2024, which will create some market pain as it extinguishes "the final embers of inflation which aren't burned out yet, namely wage growth." Schutte expects the market to struggle but notes that conditions are great for fixed income, though he warns against investors hiding in the short-end of the yield curve because rates will start to change next year, and investors who are ...
Nov 21, 2023•59 min
George Kinder, president of The Kinder Institute of Life Planning and one of the leading lights in the financial planning industry, talks about his new initiative, " Fiduciary in All Things ," which seeks to apply a fiduciary standard to more than just money relationships. While most stripes of financial adviser have an obligation to act as a fiduciary -- meaning they put the client's interest ahead of their own -- Kinder believes a straightforward golden-rule like standard cold help restore civ...
Nov 20, 2023•1 hr
Financial journalist Allan Sloan, a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award -- business journalism's highest honor -- discusses his recent Fast Company column sizing up just how much money Elon Musk and his investors have lost in his dalliance with Twitter , and while the huge losses won't impact Musk's net worth, how bad deals like this do impact real people and ordinary investors who fall for the hype of a successful entrepreneur. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investments , returns t...
Nov 17, 2023•56 min
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Investments , says rate volatility has driven most market activity this year, and now the stock market is pricing in interest rate cuts toward the end of 2024. He thinks that timing is about right, but he notes that the market's fortunes for next year will rest almost entirely on the Federal Reserve, with the market understanding that the central bank has "reserved the right to be tougher here. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vi...
Nov 16, 2023•58 min
T. Rowe Price issued its outlook for 2024 on Tuesday and Blerina Uruci, the firm's chief US economist, says that while she expects slower growth, "but I am not seeing a red flag here that indicates a recession is in the cards." She notes that forecasting has become harder in the post-COVID environment, making the margin for error higher, especially with the Federal Reserve still having work to do to bring inflation down, which "will keep uncertainty elevated for 2024." Uruci expects respectable ...
Nov 15, 2023•1 hr
David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large-Cap and Small-Cap Financial Funds , says the struggle for banks will be "what's going to happen on the credit side as these loans re-price with the higher rates." Ellison says the economy's current strength is a function of what has happened over the last three decades, which has made the economy "stronger than people believe it is," which is why indicators like the inverted yield curve may not be accurate and functional now. Also on the sh...
Nov 14, 2023•58 min
Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research , says he expects a choppy market through the first half of 2024, but says the market won't uncork an ugly bear market without a significant recession, which he does not currently expect. That said, the volatility and the economic conditions should help the "SHUT stocks" -- staples, health care, utilities and telecom -- which are defensive, dividend-oriented plays, currently "the most oversold they have ever been." If interest rates drop and...
Nov 13, 2023•54 min
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management , says that the "hurricane" of bad economic numbers investors expected in 2023 could be a "gale force wind" in 2024, which is "something we can adjust to," which should help keep an economic downturn to a modest amount of time. Still, Ablin says that the technology sector is trading at 47 percent premium on a relative forward P/E basis to the rest of the Standard and Poor's 500, and history suggests that condition will lead to me...
Nov 10, 2023•59 min
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers , says that America remains the best country in the world to do business in, which is going to maintain "a basement" that the economy will not slip past when it loses some steam early next year. "The consumer has assets and has jobs, and those two things will keep the economy doing all right," he says in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi , pursues really big dividends with his pick for the ETF of the Week. Claire Martin Te...
Nov 09, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management , says the domestic stock market "Has to go down a lot more from here to be considered at fair value," which is why he has more money working in international stocks, particularly in Japan, where markets are more fairly valued and central bankers have not had to tighten up monetary policy the way the Federal Reserve has had to in the U.S. He gives his most optimistic, pessimistic and realistic look-aheads to 2024. Ron Lieber , mo...
Nov 08, 2023•58 min
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott , says that the economic downturn everyone saw as happening this year wound up being postponed for solid economic reasons, but it hasn't been canceled and more likely just pushed back into 2024. Luschini says investors should be defensive, taking advantage of higher bond yields and not being sucked into low valuations on international investments, staying balanced but not too aggressive until the economy and market are on mor...
Nov 07, 2023•59 min
Frank Holmes, chief executive at U.S. Global Investors , says he believes interest rates have peaked, and that the economy will turn around in six months as rates start to fall, but he also believes there is plenty to carry the stock market in the short-term with the Santa Claus rally propping things up by year's end as gas prices start falling, with rate cuts also coming then to help boost the economy and the recovery. Also on the show, David Trainer, president of New Constructs revisits some "...
Nov 06, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates , says he believes the Federal Reserve has finished hiking rates, even though it hasn't announced it. He looks at the clues in chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, and notes that this inflection point has bond yields at a great spot, noting "I can't remember a time when the real yield was as attractive as it is now." He's not the only one seeing opportunity in bonds, as Willie Delwiche of HiMount Research talks technicals and sees he...
Nov 03, 2023•1 hr 2 min
BJ Webster, chief investment officer at Alera Group Wealth Management , says he does not expect the economy to have a hard landing, and while there will be discomfort, investors will survive a downturn and will see slower growth that brings down interest rates, which in turn will help to give a boost to any subsequent recovery. Webster notes that if the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates while other central banks are continuing to raise interest rates, international markets might benefit from ...
Nov 02, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Peter Crane, president of Crane Data -- which publishes the Money Fund Intelligence newsletter tracking the performance of money market mutual funds -- says that high interest rates should have investors thinking about where to park and protect their cash, and to treat their cash holdings as an asset rather than an after-thought in the investment plan. He also discusses the likely path of money fund rates based on the Fed's moves. In The Book Interview, Victor Haghani, co-author of " The Missing...
Nov 01, 2023•59 min
Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors , says that the market is showing signs of breakdown, and while you can still find one or two indicators that are positive, the bearish signs are out and suggesting that there's a downturn coming, though he thinks the decline will stop short of being a "hard landing." Also on the show, Roraj Pradhananga, director of research at Veris Wealth Partners , a sustainable investment firm, talks about how current global conflicts are im...
Oct 31, 2023•59 min
