Brij Khurana, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management , says he expects the Federal Reserve to pause in its rate hiking cycle at its meeting this week, though that doesn't mean there won't be another rate increase at the next meeting if conditions warrant it. And under current conditions, Khurana says he is frequently asked why to go with bonds when cash can generate nice returns in bank certificates of deposit, to which he notes that bond prices are cheap right now, making this ...
Oct 30, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors , says the economy is somewhere between a soft and hard landing, but that anyone expecting a mild recession should watch for it to last about nine months, but with the market bottoming out typically a few months before the recession ends, investors will want to stay the course through the bear market trough, rather than moving into cash to get the high current yields and play defense. With lower expected stock returns and improv...
Oct 27, 2023•1 hr
Larry Adam , chief investment officer at Raymond James , says he expects a recession at the start of next year, but he's not nervous about it because much of the damage is already priced in and the downturn is likely to last six months, rather than the 10 months of an average recession. Moreover, with the stock market typically bottoming four to six months before a recession ends, Adam says investors may want to be buying in while the downturn is in mid-swing. Adam currently favors technology, e...
Oct 26, 2023•59 min
David Goerz, chief executive officer at Strategic Frontier Management , says it seems "like we're muddling along at zero and sometimes we're in recession and sometimes we're not." It feels like a recession, he notes -- and it has had almost all of the key statistics at various times -- but without the unemployment issue or any big stock market correction. Goerz expects lower growth for the market moving forward, and urges safety and defense in building portfolios now. Also on the show, Tracey Sp...
Oct 25, 2023•58 min
Money Life wraps up the 20 interviews of FinCon. A gathering of financial content creators and fin-tech entrepreneurs held in New Orleans last week - with Benjamin Nadelstein of Monetary Metals talking about how to generate yield on your gold holdings, Logan Smyth of the TRADR Market Analytics app on technical analysis, Kalilah Reynolds discussing the ups and downs of the Jamaican Stock Market, Jenni Sisson on how inflation is hitting the foot soldiers of the home front, and Joe Saul-Sehy of the...
Oct 24, 2023•1 hr 3 min
It's the third day of interviews taped at FinCon in New Orleans -- an annual gathering of financial content creators -- and one big focus of the conversations is inflation. That will be a big part of conversations today, when the interviews start with Jen Smith of the Frugal Friends podcast, moving into a chat with Scott Carson from The Note Closers Show and -- after a break to talk personal finance with David Zaegel from the Retire With Confidence podcast -- inflation is a big part of the talk ...
Oct 23, 2023•1 hr 5 min
It's Day Two of Money Life at FinCon, and Chuck again explores the rich tapestry of the financial world talking about the business of podcasting with Virginia Elder of Podcast Abundance , improving the financial awareness and habits in the Hispanic culture with financial educator Dario Martinez of Sal de la Olla , stock investing with CPA Mark Roussin -- the " Dividend Seeker " on YouTube -- the financial difficulties and differences of America's service men and women with Lacey Langford of the ...
Oct 20, 2023•1 hr 9 min
Money Life goes to the Fin Con Expo this week, with Chuck in New Orleans at the annual gathering of financial content creators, which is a mix of bloggers, podcasters, freelance writers, fin tech companies and forward-thinking financial minds, and you will hear from Preston Yadegar of Shareholder Vote Exchange (a company helping investors sell the votes on their shares), David Edey of the Executor Help podcast , Anthony Rushing of First Loan HELOC (which is working to help investors use credit l...
Oct 19, 2023•52 min
For years, Chuck has offered the kids in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, to decide between a trade or a treat. Every Halloween, however, Chuck tweaks the game, making a few subtle changes to keep things interesting for him and the kids. This year, he is changing something he never expected to change, ever, and he talks about how Halloween will work at his house -- and maybe yours if you follow suit -- come Oct. 31. Plus, Andrew Krei, co-chief investment officer at Crescent Grove...
Oct 18, 2023•1 hr 1 min
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research , says the stock market hit a key support level at the beginning of October, which typically has been triggering market rebounds. As a result, he sees current conditions as a "low-risk, high opportunity" place to put money to work in the market now. Mary Ryan, senior wealth advisor at The Vanguard Group , discusses the firm's research showing that investors who have the option of contributing to a health-savings account can goose their long-...
Oct 17, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer at ICON Advisers and the ICON Funds , says that he's not seeing the overpricing you'd expect at a market peak or the bargains visible in typical market bottoms, so he expects the market to "drift higher" over the next six to nine months. But those gains will be led by different stocks and sectors than what drove the market to gains earlier this year. Callahan says the market has turned since May 31, with energy leading, and economically sensiti...
Oct 16, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Brian Andrew, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group , sees more potential negative economic outcomes than positive ones, ranging from a likely recession to possible stagflation, which should keep investors cautious but looking for opportunities in the year ahead. While he worries about the troubles ahead -- particularly with two wars in the world right now -- Andrew says he does not expect a deep global recession, but something more isolated and affecting some pockets of the market...
Oct 13, 2023•1 hr
Nate Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management , says that the strength of domestic stocks has been such that they are overpriced relative to international issues, which is why he has been light on U.S. equities of late. Thooft expects equity conditions to change at some point in the next year as a recession sets in, bringing with it "value destruction" that . Once that happens and there's been some "value destruction," it will be time to be more excited about stocks, bu...
Oct 12, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International , says that stock valuations are running high right now, making it that "the compensation for equity isn't nearly as good as it has been for the better part of a decade," which has made fixed-income investments look like a better bargain. Moreover, while Sanchez is calling for a soft landing economically and believes that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, it is creating opportunities for bond investo...
Oct 11, 2023•57 min
Patrick Luce, economist at ITR Economics , says that current economic trends are building a storm that will result in a depression in the 2030s, and a small recession next year, but he notes that investors should treat the 2024 decline as a buying opportunity, positioning themselves for the market to pick up before the big trouble comes in the next decade. And while Luce sees that big event damaging portfolios, he notes that prepared investors will build portfolios leading up to it, and be posit...
Oct 10, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management , says that the current negativity around the bond market has hidden "the opportunity [longer-term investors] have been waiting for," noting that government and investment-grade corporate bonds are now delivering the kind of yield that -- after years of bonds paying nothing -- can help achieve long-term income goals. Gayle does not believe a recession is happening soon, but as consumers lose strength -- and they have since the start of the ...
Oct 09, 2023•1 hr
Matt Gertken, chief strategist, global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research , says that higher levels of leadership uncertainty lead to lower stock prices, and that the peak polarization in U.S. politics has taken the government's eyes off the ball when it comes to the actions of Russia and China, which could lead to policy mistakes and real costs on Americans in the global marketplace. Gertkin explains that the political gridlock is not all bad news for investors, noting that it restrict...
Oct 06, 2023•1 hr 4 min
Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, expects the economy to slow in 2024 -- resulting in "a growth recession" rather than a traditional full-blown economic meltdown -- likely staving off a major stock market decline. Rick says he has heard from more nervous bank and credit union top dogs who are scared about economic conditions than at any time in his 30 plus year career and he worries that a slowdown in lending could be a trigger for something bigger and worse than he currently expects. Als...
Oct 05, 2023•58 min
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust , says that third-quarter earnings season is likely to be where the market turns the corner to get positive year-o-ver-year comparisons, which may help the market get past the hurdle of higher interest rates and higher yields which has been a big reason why the market has struggled to have a broad-based rally this year. Stone says recession has been delayed, not canceled, though it could be well into next year before that happens. Also on th...
Oct 04, 2023•1 hr
Adam Grimes , president of Talon Advisors , says in the Talking Technicals segment that he expects "strength coming into the end of the year," with the stock market re-touching and potentially breaking all-time highs, but "from that point, I will get pretty defensive" because of the "very significant selloff" he expects in stocks. Grimes notes that he expects a protracted bear market for stocks, which doesn't change his long-term positive outlook for equities but which he says will hurt investor...
Oct 03, 2023•1 hr
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs , says that Affirm Holding's gains this year -- the stock has more than doubled year-to-date -- have fooled investors into thinking there might be value in the purveyor of buy now, pay later programs, so he put the company back in "The Danger Zone" for the third time in three years. Trainer noted that the stock -- despite this year's gains -- is down more than 80 percent from when he first said it was headed for trouble in 2021, and he says ...
Oct 02, 2023•1 hr
Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler , says "the trend between here and year-end is up, and 4,825 [on the Standard and Poor's 500] is my objective, and he expects the rally to broaden -- moving beyond the Magnificent Seven that have led to this point in the year -- and spreading into small- and mid-cap stocks. Chris Huemmer, senior client portfolio manager, at Flexshares , talks about why he believes real assets and natural resources play are important to help balance out a po...
Sep 29, 2023•1 hr
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments , says it typically takes about a year from the start of a rate-hike cycle to impact the revenues of companies and then another nine months before layoffs and other fallout hits home. She says soft landings require increases in government spending, banks to ease lending requirements and labor costs coming down, and those factors aren't in the cards. Coupled with higher energy costs, the continuing strain on consumers and...
Sep 28, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management , says that there is a lot of value opening up in fixed income, allowing bonds to do "more heavy lifting" in a portfolio than in recent years. She notes that bonds will ride out the choppy market until a recession sets in and yields fall precipitously , at which point bond prices will rise, goosing returns amid an economic contraction. Roland made it clear she does not believe in a no-landing" outcome, but she say...
Sep 27, 2023•1 hr 3 min
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial , says that while he expects the stock market to challenge its support levels and take a small step back soon, he expects "a buying opportunity between now and year-end" because the market cycle has plenty of strength -- particularly in industrial and energy stocks -- to keep the bullish phase running. Still, he expects a recession early in 2024, but says the market is prepared for a downturn that he expects to be short and shallow. In ...
Sep 26, 2023•1 hr 2 min
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs , puts an initial public offering into the Danger Zone for the third straight week, always jumping on deals he considers overpriced before they are even out of the box. Trainer says that this week's pick, Birkenstock, is another company that can show profits, but where the private-equity backers are pushing to get way more for those profits than the market is paying for the competition. Trainer's last two picks -- ARM Holdings and Maplebear ...
Sep 25, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management , says that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's message this week was largely positive -- suggesting we're "in a mode to get a soft landing" -- but the market seized on confusing parts where he suggested that the central bank is not afraid of going through some pain. Garretty notes that there are already plenty of "pain points" already visible in the economy, but that it hasn't created real trouble yet. The question,...
Sep 22, 2023•58 min
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research , says the Federal Reserve is putting "arrows in the quiver" to deal with a recession if it happens, but that the central bankers have signaled that "if there's a rough landing ... they won't be so quick to react to it." Roberts says the economy remains strong -- and that the U.S. is still the best market in the world -- despite the market acting like it's in a correction. He sees the narrow, large-cap rally continuing for the...
Sep 21, 2023•59 min
Sir Angus Deaton , a Nobel Prize winning economist and Princeton University professor, says that economic policy for the last few decades has paid little to no attention to "the negative consequences of trade, of disruption, of people losing their jobs to automation to globalization and what-not" and he thinks the Inflation Reduction Act has started to reverse that, though the progress maybe short-lived given current politics. Deaton weighs in on the UAW strike and the importance of unions and w...
Sep 20, 2023•59 min
Investigative reporter Zeke Faux, author of “ Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall ,” discusses his adventures covering the cryptocurrency market, from connecting with Sam Bankman-Fried before the collapse of FTX to attending "ApeFest," convincing his wife to let him spend $20,000 on an NFT as part of his book research and more. He also notes that despite its trading popularity, having crypto used as currency remains a struggle, even in the countries that have tried to ado...
Sep 19, 2023•1 hr 1 min
