Aditi Javeri Gokhale, chief strategy officer at Northwestern Mutual , says that the average American expects to retire two years later than they did just a year ago, one of several key findings in the latest data release from the firm's 2023 Planning & Progress Study out today. She notes that Americans expect to need $1.27 million to retire, and that most have less than 10 percent of that amount saved. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi , makes a brand new fund from PIMCO, that launches tod...
Jun 22, 2023•1 hr 3 min
Duke University professor Campbell Harvey , senior advisor at Research Affiliates, says that the yield-curve inversion the U.S. economy is facing is the worst, most-dangerous kind of inverted conditions, and that the Federal Reserve is steering us increasingly toward a hard landing . Harvey is the researcher whose work pointed out the correlation between inverted yield curves and recessions, and he does not think the current economy has any hope of bucking the trend, particularly if high rates p...
Jun 21, 2023•58 min
Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management says that the stock market is still reacting as if the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates before the end of this year, ignoring the likelihood that the central bank instead follows the data and pushes to get rates to 6 percent before holding steady for longer. He sees a soft landing and mild recession ahead for the economy. Indrani De, global head of investment research at FTSE Russell discusses the ' Ru...
Jun 20, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer for value at the Gabelli Funds , says the market is starting to focus on growth and the Federal Reserve's ability to delay and minimize recession, and he believes the central bank will get the job done. Marangi says in The NAVigator segment that 'the new normal' is one where inflation is higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent and growth is below trend, which he expects will create opportunities far beyond the handful of stocks that have d...
Jun 16, 2023•1 hr
Michael Lowenberg, portfolio manager for the Modern Capital Tactical Opportunities fund , says that years pf interest rates being held artificially low has created opportunities for investors looking for income now, at a point where cash can be a more tactical investment choice and closed-end funds offer good opportunities to buy income streams at a discount. He's in for the Market Call today, but Bryan Shipley of Arnerich Massena discusses behavioral economics and just how hard it is for invest...
Jun 15, 2023•1 hr
Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation for GMO , says that recessions come and go and don't leave 'much of alasting mark on either the economy or the markets,' so while he expects the ecoomy to go through a recession soon, he's not sure it matters to long-term investors, particularly those in value stocks, as he talks about a recent paper debunking the idea that underpriced stocks door poorly during economic downturns. Also on the show Susan Fahy of VantageScore says that the firm's most recent ...
Jun 14, 2023•59 min
Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research says that the primary trends he is seeing right now are up, and he is expecting more of a breakout because we are in the early stages of a bull market, but while that trend is positive, Pring says he has low expectations for the current cycle because the market is in the process of transitioning from a secular bull market to a secular bear market, which he thinks will leave markets range-bound for several years, even if the trend for the r...
Jun 13, 2023•1 hr 3 min
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs , says that while the firm's research shows that 73 percent of companies are overstating their core earnings when adding in one-time events and other factors that are part of what's known as 'street earnings,' he sees five companies with the most overblown numbers as ready for a fall, identifying MGM Resorts, PG and E Corp, Boston Scientific, Fiserv and PPL Corp. Bruce Kelly, senior columnist at InvestmentNews , discusses the latest lawsuit facing...
Jun 12, 2023•59 min
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts , says that while the rally may seem range-bound, the recent upswing has pushed it past the range and started the next rally, one which he thinks could go by another 10 percent likely before the end of the year. De Kempenaer notes that while the rally has been fueled by a few stocks, the rally will be more broad, with small caps starting to participate. In The Big Interview, financial journalist Allan Sloan goes further on what he has ...
Jun 09, 2023•59 min
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments , says he expects the market 'to reverse the gains we have had year to date' and suggests investors will be better off in cash riding out the downturn, which he thinks will be stubborn and persistent even if the downdraft is not exceptionally steep. In the Market Call, Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer at Essex Investment Management , says that small-cap stocks are already discounting a recession, setting up 'a generationa...
Jun 08, 2023•58 min
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research , says that he expects a short, shallow recession that starts no later than early into 2024, but he also says there is the potential for the economy to avoid the status of a recession while riding the U-shaped economic recovery through sub-par and sluggish growth. Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index , which dropped sharply a month ago and failed to rally this mont...
Jun 07, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Paul Seaton, managing director at Fulcrum Asset Management North America , thinks that persistent inflation and a potential recession leave the equity markets vulnerable during the second half of 2023, and while he is not expecting a volatile downturn as a result, he does think investors need to check their expectations and not get carried away by the market's gains to this point in the year. Ken Berman, founder and chief strategist at Gorilla Trades , says that the market's technicals are more ...
Jun 06, 2023•1 hr
Howard Yaruss , professor at New York University and the author of 'Understandable Economics' says that while the stock market is up sharply this year, 'this is not a stock market on fire, this is a stock market 15 percent below it's peak.' The year's increase has been mostly due to a few technology/artificial-intelligence companies, but he does not believe the AI business is setting up a new bubble/crash, because their valuations haven't approached unreasonable; Yaruss also noted that he thinks...
Jun 05, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares , says that any recession or economic downturn in the United States will wind up having spillover effects in China , where the economy is so geared to the West that it is the proverbial 'canary in the coal mine,' because if manufacturing there is slowing and exports are down, it reflects a sluggish economy in the U.S. and Europe. He sees improved potential for China and emerging markets, provided that the politicians on both sides can avoid ...
Jun 02, 2023•1 hr
Kristof Gleich, founder and chief investment officer at Harbor Capital Advisors , says investors should be surprised that the economy hasn't gone into inflation, but notes that the market has a 'genuine inflation problem' that is persistent and structural and likely to linger for a year or two, at least, as the Federal Reserve struggles to get the pace of rising costs down to 2 percent. As a result, he expects more volatility from the market, with more vibrant rallies like we are seeing now bala...
Jun 01, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Michael Sansoterra, chief investment officer at Silvant Capital , says the artificial intelligence boom currently fueling a Wall Street rally is here to stay -- though he notes the stocks are not recession- or crash-proof thanks largely to real earnings and sustainable growth curves. During the Internet bubble days around the turn of the century, companies were bid up on hope and hype, but Sansoterra notes that artificial intelligence stocks -- a surprisingly small group that is growing rapidly ...
May 31, 2023•58 min
David Trainer, president at New Constructs , says that the initial public offering for fast-casual restaurant chain Cava Group is another poster child for bad new issues, a 'rip-off' with 'the private equity holders hoping to get bailed out by unsuspecting public investors.' He compared Cava to WeWork, an IPO so troubled that it wound up being canceled; he's hoping the Cava deal suffers a similar fate. In the 'Find Me The Money' segmen t, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses financial infi...
May 30, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Andy Kapyrin, co-chief investment officer at CI RegentAtlantic Private Wealth , says that in past debt-ceiling debates -- notably heated times like 2011 and 2013 -- stock market investors made times volatile, creating an incentive for Washington to act, but with current volatility being muted, Kapyrin sees ratings agencies like Fitch applying pressure that should help politicians to resolve the issue. While Kapyrin notes that the Federal Reserve has always struggled to deliver a soft landing, th...
May 26, 2023•1 hr 3 min
Mike Foss, former partner at Brown Advisory and former manager of the Brown Advisory Equity Income fund, says he expects a slowdown, but high inflation and low unemployment leave us without the makings for a strong recession. Meanwhile, he believes interest rates will remain 'higher for longer than bond market investors actually think.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes his ETF of the Week pick an issue that builds its portfolio around stocks that are popular among hedge funds, Claire...
May 25, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute , says that he is expecting economic contraction for the last half of the year and into 2024, but notes that the market looks ahead and tends to get optimistic about half way through a recession. He's not expecting the economic slowdown to bring a major market meltdown, but by the middle of the downturn he expects signals to turn to where opportunistic investors with multi-year time horizons will want to use the...
May 24, 2023•1 hr
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management , says that the market is being buffeted by a lot of forces, but is mostly climbing the wall of worry, making it a time to be neutral between stocks and a recovering bond market, staying more domestic over international in both fixed income and equity due to international risks and despite good valuations overseas, while waiting for the market and economy to negotiate a soft landing and possible brief recession. Likewise, D.R. B...
May 23, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Gretchen Morgensen, co-author of ' These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs—and Wrecks—America ,' discusses the wide-ranging impacts that private equity firms are having in America, running a large percentage of nursing homes of private equity and hospital emergency departments, media companies and much more. She notes that leveraging companies in order to purchase them and re-sell them at a profit is detrimental to the business, while enriching the whe...
May 22, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA , sees the stock market as being stuck in its current range for months, possibly testing October lows while it waits to get more clarity on the Federal Reserve's position on ending the rate-hike cycle and starting cuts. Declines and weakness are buying opportunities, Moya says, because 'this market is looking for a big move,' with money on the sidelines looking for a breakout that will happen only once investors are confident with where inflation and rates...
May 19, 2023•1 hr 2 min
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that investors should lean into the currently inverted yield curve and buy bonds for f longer maturities so that they can lock down. High current interest rates before the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates. Bory also notes that he expects the federal government to avoid a true default but explains that a downgrade from ratings agencies won’t be the big deal most authorities expect. Plus Tom Lydon, ...
May 18, 2023•1 hr 1 min
John Porter, chief investment officer at Newton Investment Management , says the market has traded in a tight range for almost 10 months and he expects it to stay in that range while the economy sorts out its unknowns until a clear picture emerges, which he thinks will take another six to nine months. Meanwhile, to produce reasonable results in a choppy market, he says money managers will need to increase their turnover and trade more, taking advantage of the short, tight fluctuations even as th...
May 17, 2023•1 hr
John Blank, chief equity strategist/chief economist at Zacks Investment Research , says the range-bound market is going to stick around unchanged until the Federal Reserve changes its policies. Once inflation comes down, Blank says 'the market is going to rally like you've never seen.' But even now, Blank says the economy is having its soft landing -- and has been in one for some time -- no matter how much most economists protest that there hasn't been any landing yet. Also on the show, Scott Fu...
May 16, 2023•1 hr
John Jennings , author of 'The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown,' says that investors have proven throughout times by their actions that less is more effective during times when every move looks sketchy. Getting over your compulsion to do something, he notes, will help your portfolio thrive in times when the market isn't doing so well. Also on the show, Megan Moncrief, chief executive officer at the travel-insurance platform Squaremouth , discusses t...
May 15, 2023•1 hr
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial , says that the market is suggesting the possibility of a rate cut coming from the Federal Reserve by September, and that won't happen if conditions are fine. With a solid labor market and low unemployment, Krosby says the market is still range-bound and struggling to sort things out, but the futures market is signalling that trouble must be afoot. Also on the show, Jim Baker, co-head of energy infrastructure at Kayne Anderson Capital Advis...
May 12, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance , says the resilience of the economy has been surprising, staving off recession longer than he expected and allowing the market to fight off headwinds that still seem poised to create a recession, whether it comes late this year or into 2024. Zaccarelli does say the economy's strength will put the Federal Reserve in a tough spot, having to decide if it needs to increase rates again, and potentially pushing the eventu...
May 11, 2023•1 hr
Herb Greenberg, senior editor at Empire Financial Research, says that the overlooked story in the drop in bank stock prices is the role that exchange-traded funds likely played in making it happen. He discusses his recent article on the subject , which points to the way ETFs are traded as a significant contributing factor to the big drop in banking stocks, and notes that the same phenomenon could impact other market sectors that get hit with bad news in the future. Also on the show, Ed Carson, n...
May 10, 2023•57 min
