John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research says the current range-bound market is 'building up energy' and if the market can break through 4,200 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it is feasible that the market can reach new, record highs by the end of the year. But there is no clarity on the direction of the market, and if there is continued small-cap weakness and other trouble spots and the SP500 drops below 3,800 it could fall as low as 3,400 before any rally can start. Kosar notes t...
May 09, 2023•58 min
Absolute-value investor Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund says that with cash now paying close to 5 percent, it's 'gotten a lot easier to go to cash,' but it also has raised the bar on stocks and for how investors should set their expectations. 'If you don't think you're going to be making more than 5 percent on a stock,' Frank says in the Market Call, 'why are you buying it if cash is paying you [5 percent] now?' Also on the show, Lewis Black, chief executive officer at Almonty Industries , t...
May 08, 2023•59 min
Alaina Anderson, co-portfolio manager of the William Blair International Leaders Fund , says investors should be looking abroad with their money right now because the market has reached an inflection point with international stocks being much more attractively valued than domestics, and having improved profitability and sustainable results now. Anderson warns that the global rate-hiking cycle may not be done, but says foreign stocks may be better positioned to ride out whatever central banks dis...
May 05, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer, Hennion and Walsh Asset Management , says that while the Federal Reserve has been trying to kill or diminish demand, it hasn't done a great job bringing inflation closer to its target level of 2 percent. As a result, Mahn thinks that the Fed and investors will have to live with inflation around the 3 percent level into 2024, and says that the Fed may ultimately have to accept that higher inflation is here to stay and strongly resistant to the t...
May 04, 2023•58 min
Christopher Mizer, founder of Vivaris Capital , says that alternatives were in a hot spot a year ago -- when stocks were 'frightfully overvalued' -- and investors needed investments that had building cash flows and organic growth potential, but now with the market valued more reasonably, the role that alternatives are playing is to reduce long-term volatility and to offer a steadiness that the market doesn't seem to have right now. He discusses climate technology and other alternative investment...
May 03, 2023•59 min
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research , says that with the domestic stock market showing more stocks making new lows than highs, the U.S. market is increasingly challenged. Witht hat in mind, Delwiche says investors should be looking overseas because 'the rest of the world increasingly looks like it is in an uptrend and poised to continue making new highs.' Also on the show, in ' Find Me the Money ,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses financial infidelity and how an...
May 02, 2023•1 hr
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs , makes pet-insurer Trulanuon the 33rd member of his firm’s list of ‘zombie stocks,’ nothing that the company still has a long runway — nearly two years before he expects it to be bankruptcy — but almost no hope. Chuck discusses real expertise and the importance of vetting experts at a time when most news and information sources are looking to fill space. Plus Craig Martin discusses the latest research from J.D. Power showing how unhappy sel...
May 01, 2023•1 hr 1 min
It's the third and final day of interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago , and Joel Dickson, global head of advice methodology at Vanguard , carries the dicussion on the classic 60-40 portfolio further -- rivaling Catherine LeGraw from GMO who you heard on Thursday's show -- saying that the classic stock-bonds mix remains the most simple, straightforward, cost-effective solution for investors who can ride out the bumps and bruises along the way. But he's the closer on a s...
Apr 28, 2023•1 hr 27 min
It's Day Two of Money Life at Morningstar, featuring interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago. One of the themes of this year’s event has been the rise and fall and rebirth of 60-40 portfolios and Catherine LeGraw, partner at GMO, takes the side that the default allocation is too blunt to work for everyone, leaving them with too much risk which ultimately short-circuits their ability to reach their goals. Also on this show, Steve Romick of the FPA Crescent fund, Morningst...
Apr 27, 2023•1 hr 33 min
It's Money Life at Morningstar, the first of three days of interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab and Co., says that the market appears to be banking on a near-term recession, in which it takes the pain and the ill-tasting medicine, thereby allowing the Federal Reserve to take its foot off the economic brake. As a result, a recession sooner rather than later would be helpful for the economy. She kicks off s...
Apr 26, 2023•1 hr 24 min
Perth Tolle, founder of Life and Liberty Indexes -- the basis for the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF -- says that companies based in countries run by autocrats are held back in many different ways, not the least of which is that they must compete for the favor of the government and the people in power, rather than being able to focus on serving the market and customers, and that investors who want to avoid much of the headline-making geopolitical risk present globally today from creeping into ...
Apr 26, 2023•1 hr 5 min
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares , says that investors are tempted in today's high-inflation environment to pursue stocks with high-but-fixed dividends, trying to generate any sort of positive real return. Instead, Hyman says investors should be looking for dividend growers -- companies consistently raising payouts -- rather than high current yields, because a stock with a dividend that's not growing 'is basically a fixed-coupon bond, and that's the worst thing to have in ...
Apr 24, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equity strategies at Research Affiliates , says that the high probability of an upcoming recession is being priced into the market, and the more a downturn gets priced into stocks, the less investors have to fear because the damage is being done in advance. As a result, she says investors need to be looking for the inflection point where they want to buy in to get ahead of a recovery, even if that means digging in and holding for as much as three years to ...
Apr 21, 2023•59 min
Jake Jolly, head of investment analysis at BNY Mellon Investment Management , says that recent turmoil in the banking industry 'will do the additional work' of tightening credit conditions to get inflation down, but creating a recession in the process, with the downturn taking hold late this year or in 2024. Because this recession is 'a typical, monetary-policy induced recession,' Jolly expects that policy can normalize quickly, which should limit the downturn to the short time it takes to slay ...
Apr 20, 2023•58 min
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management , says that we are looking at 'unusually uncertain times given what the market is trying to process right now,' specifically how the increased cost of credit and the decreased availability of credit will work its way through the economy. St. Aubin -- who uses a quantitative, tactical approach -- says the market could go in any direction from here, but he notes that there is more downside risk here even though the economy a...
Apr 19, 2023•59 min
Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth , says that investors should be looking for ways to play a slowing economy and a light recession, and she says that international stocks are likely to outperform U.S. stocks while that plays out. She also is adding to domestic fixed-income exposure with both Treasuries and high-yield corporates, noting that the latter is an asset class she would not have touched as recently as last year. The show also debuts a new regular feature called ' Find...
Apr 18, 2023•1 hr
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders’ Almanac , discusses 'calendar effects' -- the traditional 'Sell in May and go away; buy in October to get yourself sober' strategy that may not kick in this year until as late as June, but which should involve avoiding the worst of the year and a lot of market softness but no recession. Hirsch notes that since World War II the market has made most of its gains between October and April and this year is no exception, which will leave the marke...
Apr 17, 2023•59 min
Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones , says that the economy is headed for a mild recession likely to hit home during the second half of 2023, but she notes that last year's big drop in the stock market did a lot of work to the downside, and while the market's hot start to this year means there is room for more back-sliding, she thinks those declines are mostly buying opportunities for the recovery that will follow the recession. Mahajan isn't expecting a blockbuster bounce...
Apr 14, 2023•1 hr
Harin De Silva, manager of the Allspring U.S. Long/Short Equity , says that there are a lot of companies 'priced for perfection in a slowing economy in a slowing global business cycle,' creating a big opportunity for investors who are shorting stocks, betting that they will fall in price. De Silva says that the long side of his job -- finding stocks to buy -- is challenging, and he notes that his biggest concerns right now are wildcard risks like the banking crisis, war and more. De Silva expect...
Apr 13, 2023•59 min
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers , says that the stock market is close to its fair value right now, but that 'the expensive industries the way we measure value are leading and the bargains are lagging and very sluggish,' a situation that is unsustainable and that will lead to volatile, choppy, sideways markets for the next few months. Callahan says he is holding more cash than normal but he expects to be fully invested by the fall of 2023, when he expects the market to be...
Apr 12, 2023•1 hr
Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management , says there are 'so many different headwinds' facing the market that 'we feel we're not quite through this yet.' He says that macro-level indicators are suggesting that the market will either re-test prior lows or set new ones, noting that current conditions suggest that there are enough positive indicators that investors should 'sit on your hands' and stand pat while watching the technicals play out. Also on the show, Marty Fr...
Apr 11, 2023•1 hr
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott , says the market's wild swings after its hot start are the kind of action investors will have to put up with until the market sees inflation start to give way and confidence grows that the Federal reserve has made real progress. That said, he expects a recession this year but notes that the economy is lacking the conditions that typically make a downturn deep and protracted so he believes it will be mild and brief before a r...
Apr 10, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. says investors should minimize portfolio moves — mostly to place a slightly greater emphasis on bonds — as they won’t be waiting long to see a mild recession lead to a reasonably robust recovery. Schutte expects small-cap companies and international investments to be among the leading group, with large stocks suffering during the decline Also on the show, Tom Rieman, head of wealth solutions at J.D. Power , disc...
Apr 06, 2023•59 min
Alan Gayle, president of ViaNova Investment Management , says that positive economic fundamentals are being tempered and offset by higher inflation and interest rates, giving investors a laundry list of concerns over growth and the stock market, but he notes that the bond market is looking more like its old self than it has in years, giving investors asset allocation choices that will help them ride out the brewing economic storm. Also on the show, Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at ...
Apr 05, 2023•1 hr 4 min
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management , says a mild recession is coming, and he is diversifying internationally as part of his moves to deal with it, noting that international markets not only have valuation advantages against their U.S. counterparts, but as a currency play, noting that a rally in the yen or the Euro would create a tailwind for investors. In The Book Interview, Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist of The Oxford Club and author of ' Get Rich With...
Apr 04, 2023•1 hr
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management , says he is doubtful that the market's current rally can go on for too much longer, and when he sees profit levels decline it will be time to lighten up on equities and buckle up for a recession and downturn. In The Big Interview, he says the firm is diversifying and nimble, with real assets, TIPs and other fixed-income securities providing ballast to a portfolio that includes a lot of international exposure to balance out domes...
Apr 03, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading , says that 'people are way underallocated,' nervously sitting in cash and Treasuries while waiting for market troubles to play out, but when those investors get FOMO -- a fear of missing out -- and the money starts flowing back into investments, it will lift both the stock and bond markets. DeGarner expects a big comeback in 60-40 portfolios this year and says that several commodities markets are now trading at levels that present a...
Mar 31, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says the current troubles with the banking industry and the market's struggles with inflation are setting the stage for a new cycle, noting that if inflation comes down and the Fed backs away from its stance it typically will improve conditions for investors. Levitt notes that investors are wondering whether the current situation looks like the 1990s -- when a downturn represented a great opportunity -- or like the 2008 financial crisis, where r...
Mar 30, 2023•1 hr
Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research , says that while headlines are driving investors to distraction, the stock market right now is neither too hot nor too cold. Other than regional banks, he says there's no blood in the streets, the market 'isn't screaming cheap or hugely overvalued either,' making this a time for investors to grind it out and work on their holding, rather than buying or selling. 'The key,' he says, 'is not in picking the next calamity, but avoi...
Mar 29, 2023•59 min
Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, expects a modest recession where investors can benefit from riding it out with a greater exposure to fixed income and a more-balanced portfolio, but he also notes that there are plenty of worrisome wildcards that could impact the market and economy. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial , says the market is going through 'a bottoming process,' but needs more confirmatio...
Mar 28, 2023•57 min
