Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group foresees 'the best buying opportunity in the global stock market for at least a decade' to come into view after the market goes through a recession and some pain in the first half of 2023. He believes that valuations will reflect the economic ills first, saying investors should be prepared for 'significant further losses' of as much as 25 percent before the market reaches the purchasing point. Talking technical analysis, Chris Vermeulen...
Dec 28, 2022•59 min
Patrick O’Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, dislikes the cliche of a 'stockpicker's market' but he says the proverbial shoe fits for the year ahead, because while the overall tenor of the market has been muted and the economy has been bordering on recession, there are industry-leading stocks with solid balance sheets and profits and nice dividends that investors can build a portfolio around. O'Hare says the first half of the year will be challenging until inflation is under better cont...
Dec 27, 2022•58 min
Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Portfolio Solutions, says that persistent inflation -- for longer than most observers are expecting -- is going to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish for longer, which investors will have to adjust to by diversifying away from the mega-cap stocks that have been a particular drag on portfolios this year. He suggests that investors look to small-cap stocks, non-US issues plus real assets and value investments to smooth out the ride in the year ahe...
Dec 23, 2022•59 min
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management says that investors can expect a recession and market troubles during the first half of the New Year, but a recovery to start later on, noting that he expects the stock market to bottom out while the economy gets to where interest rates and inflation start becoming more reasonable. Cronk says that investors looking to be back in the market next year should be dipping into sectors where demand is consistent re...
Dec 22, 2022•58 min
Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Americas chief economist and head of global portfolio construction at The Vanguard Group, says that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be reluctant to stop interest-rate hikes in 2023, and while they will get inflation under control it will be a slow process to get it down to the 2 percent level they are hoping for until at least 2024 and possibly 2025. As a result, any economic recovery is likely to be lackluster, featuring more choppiness and sideways movements...
Dec 21, 2022•1 hr
Dana Telsey, chief executive/chief research officer at Telsey Advisory Group -- a leading analyst of the retail industry -- says she is cautious about the status of consumers and how they will respond to continuing inflation, noting that spending has moderated a bit. Telsey thinks retailers will see less spending and success than the last two years, but she thinks that retailers who can get through these times without much leftover inventory will be healthy enough to weather the storm that's com...
Dec 20, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab and Co. says that investors should be hoping that the medicine necessary to help a weaker economy reduce the inflationary fever would be best taken sooner than later, leading to 'a much more meaningful deterioration of the economy ... that sets up a Fed pause.' With that in mind, Sonders expects more short-term market pain, setting up a recovery and better opportunities beyond that. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Digital Realt...
Dec 19, 2022•59 min
Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that with the market being driven by inflation, there is a very slim chance that the Federal Reserve 'sticks the landing, gets it just right and we're off to the races again,' but an equally small worry about the central bank taking rates too high and making a giant mistake that craters the market. He believes the Federal Reserve likely lands somewhere in the middle, triggering a small, shallow recession. R...
Dec 16, 2022•59 min
Mike Liss, portfolio manager for the American Century Value fund -- who uses a relative-value approach and is always trying to find the stocks that are "most undervalued" -- says that there has been a shift in what represents a great risk-reward since the beginning of 2022. While energy stocks remain a reasonable value, Liss says that health care, industrial and real estate investment trusts are areas that have become particularly attractive entering the new year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ...
Dec 15, 2022•59 min
Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research says that investors in 2023 will find out "the difference between an all-weather radial tire and a 30-percent total return," with one being "a Goodyear and the other a great year." Dad jokes aside, his look ahead for the New Year includes the idea that 2023 will not be a repeat of 2022, and while there will still be significant volatility, he otherwise thinks that the market's leadership will turn over, with lagging sectors coming to the for...
Dec 14, 2022•1 hr
Harry Dent, the founder of Dent Research, says that the stock market's troubles in 2022 were just a precursor to real trouble, with the next wave in a downward cycle coming early next year, right after the market wakes up to the fact that there is neither a Santa Claus rally or a January effect to get the new year started on good footing. Dent has been calling for a market decline of 85 percent or more in stocks -- moving from their peak to their trough -- and sees the massive decline being the ...
Dec 13, 2022•59 min
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, says that a soft landing for the economy is achievable, so long as inflation comes down without dramatically increasing the unemployment rate. He says it's 'so far, so good,' in terms of current conditions, though he notes it is still early. Nick expects a mild recession in 2023, but says 'Investors can get some pretty good deals with some of the yields that are available across the spectrum in fixed income, and that includes the equity markets ...
Dec 12, 2022•1 hr
Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles, says that while interest rates and inflation are rising, the rate of those increases is slowing, and that part of the classic cycle doesn't ever get resolved quickly. is part of the classic cycle that has historically taken time to work out. The 89-year-old bond investing legend says the Federal Reserve has a tough job on its hands and places the central bank's odds of being successful in executing a soft landing are about 10 percent, though he thinks th...
Dec 09, 2022•58 min
Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund, says that the fixed-income market is waiting for proof that the Federal Reserve's moves are starting to beat back inflation, but that stability in interest rates -- likely to be in place until the Fed starts cutting rates late in 2023 or into 2024 -- will drive good performance in fixed income over the next six to 12 months. Rosenkranz says that will help investors who are about to live through a recession which he says will be 'harde...
Dec 08, 2022•1 hr
Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, expects the Federal Reserve to do two more big interest rate hikes -- one now and one in the first quarter of 2023 -- which will keep the bond market choppy, but he believes the worst pain the bond market has suffered this year has passed. He expects the Fed to pause for the remainder of 2023, rather than pivot in its policies, with inflation having peaked but receding slowly. Mondillo cites strong fixed-income fundamentals -- par...
Dec 07, 2022•1 hr
Benjamin Halliburton, founder and chief investment officer at the Building Benjamins investment newsletter, says that inflation and interest rates bottoming out last year after a decline/trend that lasted for 40 years has now put investors into a new territory, forcing them to consider areas and industries that benefitted from decades of disinflation. It's the biggest inflection point of most investors' lifetimes, he says, but it's an adjustment that people will need to make to keep the profits ...
Dec 06, 2022•59 min
Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that the U.S. stock market may be better positioned than the rest of the world right now, that's mostly because the outlook for almost all global markets right now is grim. He's anticipating trouble -- and sparse to no growth for the U.S. market and economy -- with little reason for optimism expected until the end of next year. Meanwhile, he described three types of bear markets -- apa Bear, Mama Bear and Baby Bear -- and says he t...
Dec 05, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S and P Global Ratings, sees trouble ahead for the economy early in 2023, as it moves through a recession and adjusts to slowing growth that is likely to be negative early on before picking up in May or June. Even with those gains, he expects the year to be flat on growth overall until 2024. Also on the show, Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive at Saratoga Investment Corp. -- a large business-development company -- talks about the edge that BDCs have g...
Dec 02, 2022•59 min
Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that investors should expect volatile choppy markets -- moving sideways at best -- while the economy pivots away from the rising inflation and interest rate trend, but that investors shouldn't expect much good news until at least May of 2023. Kelly says that he expects China to pivot on some of its policies early in 2023, which will make its economy and stock market the only market with higher cash fl...
Dec 01, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that fallout from the current global supply-chain crisis will be a worldwide shift to there is going to "near-sourcing," the ability to have suppliers closer to home, which will lead to Corporate American spending money to make it happen, which should benefit industrial companies and energy stocks moving forward. Those sectors plus health care should be leading as the market and economy head into a volatile 2023 that McKni...
Nov 30, 2022•57 min
Glory Liu, author of "Adam Smith's America: How a Scottish Philosopher Became an Icon of American Capitalism," says that people evoking the famous economist's memory to support their thinking are typically wrong about his teachings, noting that the patron saint of capitalism had a lot of ideas that have mostly been forgotten by leaders and politicians trying to appropriate his fame and use it as an endorsement. She suggests it might be a warning sign as to what is being promoted using Smith as a...
Nov 29, 2022•1 hr
Eric Boughton, portfolio manager/chief analyst at Matisse Capital -- which runs mutual funds that invest in closed-end funds -- says that investors can find attractive discounts in a few sectors right now, notably in municipal bonds, high-yield and bank-loan funds are worth investigating in fixed income, with foreign stocks and MLP funds (investing in master limited partnerships) leading the opportunity set in equities. Boughton notes that investors can do significant "discount capture" -- makin...
Nov 28, 2022•1 hr
It's Black Friday, ahead of Cyber Monday and the start of the home stretch for holiday shopping, but it's not just about what's happening with retailers. John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors sorts through the big discounts in the closed-end fund world right now and comes up with four issues -- two in stocks and two in fixed-income -- that would be sound additions to an investor's holiday wish list now. Then the talk turns to retail fraud as Melanie McGovern of th...
Nov 25, 2022•58 min
Colin McWey, portfolio manager at Heartland Advisors, says that current market conditions are setting up well for value-oriented investors, because it is clear that many companies e market is building a scenario where a lot of companies will be worth much more in three to five years, although a number of stocks that were overpriced in 2020 and '21 will never re-attain past highs. The wash-out of companies that had a disconnect between fundamentals and enormous expectations was necessary, McWey s...
Nov 23, 2022•1 hr 2 min
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says that the market has reached a key point, and he believes the lows the market made in June and retouched in October -- in the 3,500 range for the standard & Poor's 500 -- will stick, and last several quarters. He remains positive on the market for now, noting that his key indicators remain green, but notes he won't be surprised if the market re-tests those lows before moving forward again in 2023. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chi...
Nov 22, 2022•1 hr 3 min
Brian Overby, senior markets strategist at Ally, says that the market is in a good place to have a Santa Claus rally into the end of the year, boosted by the strong consumer, but he noted that good news could carry into 2023 with an economy that could actually pull off a soft landing so long as employment, inflation and spending numbers stay where expected and continue current trends. Overby noted that while current conditions are rocky, it makes for a selective buying opportunity while waiting ...
Nov 21, 2022•1 hr
Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree, says that while everyone is counting on the Federal Reserve to beat back inflation and tackle the economic problems facing the nation, 'the reality is that some of the issues we are facing aren't the kind of issues that the Fed has the ability to fix." He warns that if global supply chains struggle, prices will remain high no matter what happens with interest rates, and a worst-case scenario would be stagflation where unemployment is rising but pri...
Nov 18, 2022•59 min
Barry Metzger, managing director of trading and education at Charles Schwab, says that the firm's latest trader sentiment survey shows that nearly 60% of traders feel like the United States is already in a recession or will be in one by the end of the year, with nearly that entire group believing that the economic slowdown will last less than one year. These traders -- investors who make 80 or more transactions in a year, but not part of the day-trading community -- are largely bearish, but beli...
Nov 17, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Jeff Spiegel, U.S. head of iShares megatrend and international ETFs at BlackRock, says that high inflation is not a megatrend that will last decades, but it has created an environment in which investors will want to be more selective, looking for compelling reasons for long-0term growth. Specifically, he identified infrastructure and clean energy plays, health-care innovation and cybersecurity and robotics as industries with the juice to grow now but the potential to keep growing for decades. Al...
Nov 16, 2022•59 min
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that while there are real positives to take away from recent market activity, the lag effect from Federal Reserve actions will slow growth, earnings and profit margins sufficiently to create a small recession in the spring or summer of 2023. She recommends selectively managing portfolios to add balance, but warns against "taking wild swings at this market because things can change too quickly and you'll get caught ...
Nov 15, 2022•59 min
