Amber Fairbanks, portfolio manager at Mirova on the firm's global sustainable equity strategy, says that she thinks a recession is coming, likely early next year and while she expects it to be mild, investors and experts are mostly guessing at that because there is no real precedent for the kind of high inflation, rising rate environment we are seeing today. Fairbanks, speaking in the Market Call segment, also talked about sustainable equities, which is a good comparison for the Big Interview se...
Nov 14, 2022•1 hr
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that buying smart in the stock market requires making investments when they feel bad, which despite this week's rally is still the case today. He foresees some recessionary troubles for 2023, but thinks the recovery from a bear market will be "normal" and likely accomplished within two years. Thus, even while he warns that earnings and conditions will look worse in the short run, the long run will benefit people who keep investing now....
Nov 11, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund and the Dividend and Income Fund, says that investors have to adjust their psychology to recognize that it is a preserve of value, and while it has struggled this year in its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, it will hold up well against bonds, where investors have been lured by higher yields that look good but can't keep pace with inflation. Winmill says central bankers around the world have been buying it and that they have a good track re...
Nov 10, 2022•59 min
Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its rate hikes by March, creating a good environment for bonds and cash to generate a real return with minimal risk. But first, he says the stock market will likely rally down the final stretch of 2022, but that because the stock market has never bottomed ahead of the start of a recession he expects a reversal that takes out the lows before the Fed pivots and the market can start a slo...
Nov 09, 2022•58 min
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, says that inflation could begin dropping next year while unemployment remains low, conditions which run counter to the traditional recessionary playbook. He says that the reasons for inflation over the last few years could be unique to the Covid era -- fiscal stimulus, unusual supply chains, a shift in how people spend money moving from services to goods, war in Ukraine and more -- which could set up "a great scenario" and a potential sof...
Nov 08, 2022•59 min
Adam Ballantyne, senior analyst at Cambiar Investors, says the Federal Reserve needs to keep talking as if inflation is far from over because their job is to dare us into a recession or near recession to cure the economy's problems, but he notes that "The reality is we might be peaking right here." Half of the inInflation is driven by housing, energy and medicare costs, and Ballantyne says those items do appear to have topped or are near to it, meaning "It could very well be the case that the ne...
Nov 07, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Shep Perkins, chief investment officer for equities at Putnam Investments, says that once the Federal Reserve sees an uptick in unemployment and the economy slowing and cuts back on rate increases, the stock market will find a bottom and begin a sharp recovery once the all-clear is sounded. While investors will need to be patient waiting for that rebound to start, Perkins says there are plenty of compelling values for patient investors who are willing to wait for investments made into today's ba...
Nov 04, 2022•59 min
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's forth jumbo rate hike of the year -- announced yesterday -- is not likely to trigger a deep inflation, but the central bank did leave consumers wondering just how effective the rate hikes will be at slowing and ending inflation. - hiking activity will end or, at least slow, the rise in consumer prices. Bory adds that while higher yields are not great for all financial assets...
Nov 03, 2022•59 min
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says the stock market is in for some dicey moments heading into 2023 and through the first few months of the year, but he is calling for the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit 4,400 -- roughly 15 percent higher than it is today -- by the end of next year, a recovery that is set up by solid economic underpinnings that he says will come to the fore once inflation is under better control. Also on the show, Anu Ganti...
Nov 02, 2022•1 hr
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, says that while there is no sugar-coating the problems of the economy -- inflation, rising interest rates, a rough housing market and more -- the likely recession that lies ahead will be shallow, and will have a reasonable recovery once the Federal Reserve proves that the bitter medicine it is providing to quash inflation won't go overboard and kill the patient. Also on the show, Mark Hulbert discusses his recent column on MarketWa...
Nov 01, 2022•1 hr 3 min
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that the stock market has been signaling a coming recession -- albeit not likely to be "a deep scary one" -- but the key will be the speed of recovery, and that may hinge on how and when the Federal Reserve eases up on or reverses interest-rate hikes. Crosby notes that one thing that will help the recovery is that the dollar should weaken once the Fed makes it clear that the cycle of rate hikes is ending; she pointed to multi-national...
Oct 31, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Karl Mills, president of Jurika Mills & Kiefer, says that negative investor sentiment is a precondition of a rebound, but he's looking for more signals that the economy and stock market is bottoming out. For example, Mills says that earnings haven't declined much yet, but he expects them to because of the squeeze that current conditions are putting on profits. The result is that Mills is taking a cautious, "shelter from the storm" approach, noting that there is still a lot of downside risk e...
Oct 28, 2022•59 min
Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says that the market has taken the pain of higher rates but is watching that work its way through the economy and corporate earnings while facing wildcards like Covid-19, war in Ukraine and more that could extend current troubles. Still, despite an "epically bad" start to the year for the bond market -- coupled with hard times in equities -- Freund says that it is "not a foregone conclusion" that what lies ahead is a crash, and he ...
Oct 27, 2022•59 min
Christopher Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors and the Davis Funds, says that "the bubble has been pricked" on the "crazy, hyper-speculative" growth companies, but that has put some names into the stock market's sweet spot, especially for investors with long time horizons and a value-investing bent. A year ago on the show , Davis said that a hybrid value style that encompassed "undervalued growth companies and value stocks that can grow" would be well positioned for whatever...
Oct 26, 2022•58 min
Tom Siomades, chief investment officer at AE Wealth Management and Advisors Excel, says that he believes the economy has been in recession for much of this year, and that he sees that ending as soon as the Federal Reserve gets inflation under control, which he expects to happen by early next year. He notes that the pundits calling for recession next year are late to the game; meanwhile, that time frame makes it easier for investors to stay the course with the investment portfolios built during t...
Oct 25, 2022•58 min
Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at CUNA Mutual Group, says that central bankers are engineering a recession in order to kill inflation, and that investors are asking the wrong questions when they wonder how deep and how long a recession will be instead of wondering whether the mild recession most people expect will be enough to get the job done and fix the problem. Knapp believes that inflation is stubborn enough -- and that core inflation is accelerating -- to force a "more meaningful rece...
Oct 24, 2022•1 hr
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says he thinks there is at least a 50 percent chance of a recession, but says that the whole idea that the Federal Reserve can "engineer a soft landing is a fairy tale," noting that a perfect ending to today's economic troubles isn't impossible, but "if it happens, it's just going to happen because it happened," not because the Fed actions caused it. Frick notes "a mild recession could be a tonic to a lot of what ails the economy ri...
Oct 21, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Michael Sincere, author of the Michael Sincere's Long-Term Trader column on MarketWatch.com, says that there are nine stages to a bear market and that the recent rallies are proving that this downturn isn't quite halfway through those steps, making the road to recovery long. He expects the bear market to last for at least another 12 months, and while he sees some potential rallies in there -- and even sees potential for a significant spike higher -- he suggests investors should be wary about tak...
Oct 20, 2022•58 min
Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer at the ICON Funds -- who correctly called the bottom of the pandemic-driven bear market in March 2020 -- says that there are signs that the stock market has been through the ringer, but it's not yet showing enough signs that it has reached a bottom. Callahan says the market is roughly at fair value, not nearly beaten up enough to create the kind of widespread bargains normally found at a market bottom. the way it typically would be in As a resu...
Oct 19, 2022•58 min
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says that while investors are suffering with the struggling market, he does not see a deep, protracted recession, and he says that investors who have priced in a much bigger downturn have created a buying opportunity that people may struggle to take advantage of because of the emotions of the downturn; he cites a number of data points that have him overweight to equities relative to fixed income now, which is a contrary position to many...
Oct 18, 2022•1 hr 3 min
David Goerz, chief executive officer at Strategic Frontier Management, says that some well-known blue-chip companies are trading at single-digit price-earnings ratios lower than in the last two decades, creating opportunities for investors, but we are in an environment where investors could sell stocks and buy bonds expecting a better return, and the only asset class that he thinks can generate a positive return is cash. Goerz defends holding more cash right now despite an inflation rate that ul...
Oct 17, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Warren Pierson, co-chief investment officer at the Baird Funds, says that after a long period where bond payouts were so low that investors had no choice and no alternative but to invest in stocks, things have now moved to where investors should be looking at bond yields because that's where they can find good values now. Pierson says that odds of a recession have risen, and while he does not expect a particularly long or difficult economic downturn, he believes investors should focus on investm...
Oct 14, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that investors didn't expect the Federal Reserve to let troubling times linger, but now the central bank can't make a change on a dime, so investors should now be waiting for the Fed to pivot on its strategy, a change he does not think will happen soon. Sargen expects a recession that is "not that long and not that deep," though he acknowledges there is enough uncertainty to make it last longer before those weak sp...
Oct 13, 2022•1 hr
Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle Investments -- senior portfolio manager of the Columbia Thermostat Fund -- says that the sell-off in stocks has not been the result of bad earnings reports, but rather has been driven by multiple compression, and until investors are willing to pay more for earnings, the stock and bond markets will be muted at best. Investors won't likely come around until the Federal Reserve signals its intentions on whether it will continue ...
Oct 12, 2022•1 hr
Dan Wiener, co-editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser -- his new effort at tracking the world's largest fund company after his long-running newsletter was shuttered by its publisher -- discusses the value and success of touts, tipsters, newsletters and online services as he shares his plans for how he will continue to independently cover and follow Vanguard. Chuck also goes "Off the News" with Brett Arends, retirement columnist for MarketWatch, discussing his recent piece on how much retirem...
Oct 11, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, says investors should be deciding their current course based mostly on their reactions to current conditions. He believes that the worst is behind us in terms of the pullback in stocks, record-setting inflation and the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve, which has him expecting better days ahead and positioning to take advantage of them, but he notes that investors who disagree and who are still uncomfortable and losing s...
Oct 10, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Meb Faber, chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that with traditional safe havens not working/protecting against the current downturn, many investors are reaching the point where they can't take it any more, becoming more "emotional and crazy," and that it will get exponentially worse with every additional 10 percent decline -- which he believes might happen before the market can turn around. That kind of panicky behavior, Faber says, is that it keeps them from investing in the ...
Oct 07, 2022•1 hr 4 min
Chris Brightman, chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, explains how he believes the British financial system was threatened during a recent pension crisis that forced central bankers there to step in to overcome a liquidity crisis. Brightman says he expects to see similar issues popping up in markets around the globe, noting that "it's really hard to engineer the sort-of global tightening cycle that we're in and not break anything in the financial system." Those troubles, coupled with ...
Oct 06, 2022•1 hr
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says she anticipates stock market and economic problems late this year -- "especially if the Fed doesn't take it's foot off the accelerator" -- but she says the current environment will settle down so that investors can get their bearings and stay focused on the long-term, noting that there are reasons to be optimistic about the market for 2024 and beyond. Hooper says that the Federal Reserve will be the biggest determinant of how and w...
Oct 05, 2022•57 min
JJ Kinahan, chief executive officer, IG North America -- parent company of tastyworks -- says that the stock market is showing signs that current high levels of volatility are likely to stick around into early next year; considering this abnormal market activity, Kinahan says there is nothing wrong with average investors regrouping and taking a breather while waiting for more clear direction from the market. Kinahan notes that he has seen over the last five months more investors moving from indi...
Oct 04, 2022•58 min
