Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, says that the strong dollar is dramatically changing business conditions for U.S. companies, even as they deal with recessionary conditions. The dollar has gotten so strong, Weniger says, that it's an expensive country for companies and consumers, all of whom will have to deal with the headwinds created by the dollar. Weniger says that he expects the next six months to be characterized by significant volatility, which will giv...
Oct 03, 2022•1 hr
Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios -- author of the "Macro Tides" newsletter -- says the Federal Reserve will not be able to raise interest rates, calm the economy and bring rates right back down, noting that current conditions are reminiscent of a 15-year period from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s when the market was largely flat as the central bank struggled to keep inflation in check. If the market repeats that kind of long-term doldrums, Welsh says that buy-and-hold investors will be disappoint...
Sep 30, 2022•1 hr
Long-time investment writer John Waggoner, the financial editor for AARP.org, says that investors aren't seeing the proverbial "blood running in the streets" despite the stock market's recent downturn, so it's not a simple "buy the dips, ride it out" market. Instead, it's a balance of holding more cash and deploying it selectively, while also considering ways to reduce the long-term impact that current conditions can have on a retirement portfolio. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a ...
Sep 29, 2022•59 min
Jason Thomas, chief executive officer at Portfolio Design Labs, says that the toughest challenge facing investors right now is that safe assets -- which had done their job reasonably well during downdrafts over the last 30 years -- aren't delivering now, forcing investors to change their plans to better ride through inflationary and recessionary times. Thomas says that with the dividend portion of high-dividend stocks being undervalued, a mix of those steady payers plus short-duration bonds will...
Sep 28, 2022•1 hr
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts, says that he does not believe investors will be rewarded for "being early to buy the dip," warning that changing market conditions make it that waiting in cash to see more discernible trends will avoid losses and sidestep volatility while still allowing for upside potential once it becomes clear that the tide is turning. "The more cash you have on the sidelines" Delwiche says, "the better you're feeling about your position." Today's show...
Sep 27, 2022•1 hr 2 min
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer for the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that investors can win right now by not losing, and while holding cash won't keep pace with high inflation, he says being on the sidelines waiting for the market "to show some productive trends" is a sound strategy for current conditions. St. Aubin says that while the Federal Reserve's clear mission is to tame inflation even if it means triggering a recession, the stock market will continue to respond badly until it has ...
Sep 26, 2022•1 hr
Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief investment officer at Centerstone Investors, says that international stocks are already looking like good values but are likely to be priced even better with another drop from here, but it is creating "a dream scenario for anyone who has a three- to five-year time horizon," so while he sees the proverbial blood running in the streets globally, he thinks investors are "in that zone" where they should allocate more internationally to get the best prices now. Inve...
Sep 23, 2022•1 hr 7 min
Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services and the nation's preeminent expert on reverse mortgages, says that retirees are facing a delicate balancing act right now, worrying about sequence-of-return risk -- which is heightened during times of bear markets and high volatility -- but also how to fund retirement. Reverse mortgages can be a key tool in times like this, but Pfau says they become less effective as interest rates rise; coupled with wildly f...
Sep 22, 2022•1 hr
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, acknowledges that he is giving potentially controversial advice in suggesting that with interest rates still rising investors might look to buy longer-duration bonds, but he thinks that rates will peak soon and that investors who stay completely focused on short-term bonds will find themselves with significant re-investment risk -- the chance that they will be looking at lesser returns when bonds mature -- in a year or two. While h...
Sep 21, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that the dividend aristocrats have grown their payouts beyond even the current levels of inflation, which makes them — along with companies that benefit from rising rate environments- the sweet spot for tilting a portfolio now. In The Big Interview, he also discusses how to tilt a fixed income portfolio for today’s challenging conditions. Also on the show, Ken Tumin, founder and editor at DepositAccounts.com, talks about what rising i...
Sep 20, 2022•55 min
Thomas Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors in Denver says that last week's inflation news and other current conditions have increased the potential for recession, and he notes that the historical decline for a bear market with a recession is 35 percent, which will have the market testing June lows and likely going deeper, potentially dropping the Standard & Poor's 500 to the 3,000 to 3,200 range. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs singles out Affi...
Sep 19, 2022•1 hr
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that history shows that when inflation has peaked, the stock market has bottomed, and he believes inflation peaked in June, which along with other conditions means that the bottom is in. Still, he notes that the market will be "discomfortable" as the economy moves back and forth from inflation to recession. He does believe that a mild recession is still coming, but that things will look and feel a lot bett...
Sep 16, 2022•1 hr 1 min
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that he believes current inflation-rate statistics are over-stating the problem, caused in part by backward-looking data mixed with the human nature of forward-looking investors. He expects a step-back in inflation measures, though it may be 2023 before that happens. Meanwhile, Ablin says that the market's reaction to Tuesday's Consumer Price Index news was overdone, but he expects the market to trend lower and while he's s...
Sep 15, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says economic risks right now are "skewed to the upside," noting that gas prices could reverse course in the fall; with the market showing Tuesday that it can't handle service prices rising even as oil prices fall, Torres says that the picture could get ugly if gas prices rise and other prices keep going up too, increasing the need for the Federal Reserve to act and the likelihood of a recession next year. Also on the show, author Gary Weiss ...
Sep 14, 2022•1 hr
Carly Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading says that "despite all the scary fundamental stories and headlines we read," the cache of money that investors have now will be put to work in stocks to bonds, creating enough momentum to overcome the emotion and volatility she expects for the market in the next year. She also believes that gold and silver -- which have heretofore been ineffectual hedges for inflation -- could be sleeper sectors poised to wake up, especially if the do...
Sep 13, 2022•58 min
Money Life wraps up its interviews fro FinCon 2022 in Orlando with eight different talks today, finishing with Joe Saul-Sehy of the Stacking Benjamins podcast, who notes that in his years attending the meeting of bloggers, podcasters and content creators he has seen a change in the Financial Independence, Retire Early crowd, where many people enjoy the concepts and are practicing elements of the discipline without going to extremes. Also sitting down with Chuck at FinCon for today's show: option...
Sep 12, 2022•1 hr 40 min
Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager for the Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust, says that community banks stand out as a part of the financial sector that is poised to benefit into 2023, as banks will likely see the bulk of continuing rate hikes fall directly to the bottom line. Still, she favors bonds to stocks in the sector. When that interview for The NAVigator is finished, the action moves to FinCon22 in Orlando, where Chuck interviews Robert Farrington of The College Investo...
Sep 09, 2022•1 hr 12 min
Chuck heads to Orlando for FinCon '22, the annual conference of content creators, financial coaches, educators and more, and he samples some of the expertise speaking with Doug Nordman of MilitaryFinancialIntelligence.com about whether veterans have been treated any differently by the market in this downturn, Monica Scudieri of GrabYourSlice.com, Jason Parker of RetirementBudgetCalculator.com, and Emily Guy Birken, who recently started YourOneGoodThing.com. Plus, Tom Lydon goes nuclear with his ...
Sep 08, 2022•1 hr 5 min
Legendary investor and noted philanthropist David Rubenstein of The Carlyle Group says that today's inflation feels like the 1970s, a time that taught investors that it is hard to get inflation out of the system. That has left the economy "treading water," trying to get comfortable with how the situation will play out before it can move forward; in the interim he expects low econnimc growth stopping short of recession, inflation that heads down but not all the way to the Fed's 2 percent, target,...
Sep 07, 2022•59 min
Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar Inc., says that recession-proofing your portfolio and making it inflation-resistant requires different actions, but the biggest similarity to both processes is that investors need a plan that they can ride out until conditions improve. She notes that flip-flopping on strategy -- more than following flawed strategies -- leads investors astray. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.co...
Sep 06, 2022•1 hr
Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Private Bank at Bank of America, expects heightened volatility with the market mostly flat until the point when the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is about to end, at which point "markets will swing back toward the green. ... The sooner Jay Powell gets it done, the better for the markets and the better for equities." Looking at the market's technical's, Matt Harris -- chief investment officer for The Hausber...
Sep 02, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Joe Terranova -- widely known on Wall Street as 'Joe T.' -- chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says that the stock market and economy are not going through the kind of short, sharp downturn-recovery pattern investors have grown used to this century, but that time will resolve the issues making it so that investors with the time to ride it out -- and favoring companies with strong fundamentals -- will be rewarded for their patience. For the second week in a row, Tom Lydon, vic...
Sep 01, 2022•1 hr
Alan Gayle, president at Via Nova Investment Management, says that while he is optimistic that Europe and other global markets will see a strong recovery in the future, until that happens -- likely sometime next year -- he prefers to be invested in the United States, despite the struggles of markets here. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Gayle calls the current environment "exceptionally complicated," noting that recessionary forces are held at bay by a strong job market and flush consumers, and...
Aug 31, 2022•1 hr
David Jilek, chief investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that the market is likely to continue along a volatile path as it looks for resolution from today's headline risks, and he notes that investors need to mitigate risks and position themselves less to profit now than for the future point when the market comes out of the doldrums and starts its next real climb to a bull market. Jilek noted that the relationship between asset classes -- most notably stocks and bonds which ...
Aug 30, 2022•59 min
Moe Ansari, chief investment officer at Compak Asset Management and the long-time host of "Market Wrap with Moe," joins Chuck for the most unusual Market Call interview in the history of Money Life, calling out the culture of stock picks and the way audiences use them. In The Danger Zone segment, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, talks about why pet-food retailer Chewy is a barking dog of a stock, burning through its cash to where bankruptcy could be on the horizon within two yea...
Aug 29, 2022•1 hr
Clyde McGregor, long-time manager of the Oakmark Equity and Income fund, says he is "suspicious" of the market's recent rally after valuations didn't get low enough during the bear market to sound the all-clear on trouble. That is one key issue to investing now, McGregor says, with the bigger concern being that current conditions are different than in the past, most notably with changes in the relationship between interest rates and inflation; while certain elements rhyme with various times in t...
Aug 26, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Eddy Vataru, chief investment officer for total return at Osterweis Capital Management, says that investors are thinking wishfully that the Federal Reserve can play with interest rates and inflation to engineer a soft landing for the economy, but he believes any scenario where the Fed is not hiking rates until inflation drops to their target of 2 percent is too rosy. He says the Fed will be as hawkish as possible, trying to set market expectations about rising rates while hoping to engineer a so...
Aug 25, 2022•59 min
Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management says that emerging markets investors are trying to decide if the next 10 years will be as flat and troubled as the last decade, and he says that despite prominent, key headline risks, China and emerging markets have plenty of promise now, and should turn out to be better over the next 10 years than they were over the last 10. Jayaraman says if forced to invest in just one emerging market country, his pick would be South Korea, but...
Aug 24, 2022•1 hr
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says inflation has started to roll over, and once the Federal Reserve pivots away from tough talk about fighting inflation he expects the market to move higher. Kelly says that opportunity is coming in "months or quarters rather than years," meaning that opportunity is around the corner and making this a good time to put money to work. Kelly says he is overweight "the bottom 490" of the Standard & Poor's 500, value stocks ...
Aug 23, 2022•59 min
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that while Robinhood Markets is down about 80 percent from its 52-week high and that it has room to go a lot lower, having burned through $3.5 billion in cash in the last 12 months, with just more than that amount left in cash on the books. Trainer put the company back into The Danger Zone, saying "We're really not sure what is going to prop this zombie stock up much longer ... '' even as "it is priced as if it is going to go to the moon." Also on...
Aug 22, 2022•1 hr 1 min
