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with treatments delivered discreetly to your door or local pharmacy for free. Superdrug Online Doctor. Doctor care. In a click. Terms and conditions apply. Go to onlinedoctor.superdrug.com to find out more. Welcome to Missed Apex Podcast. I'm your host, Richard Reddy, but my friends call me Spanners. So, let's be friends. This week, we're doing some oddball predictions for 2025. Not results, not championship order or standings.
but things we think will happen in 2025. From Lance Stroll's retirement to the implosion of the FIA, we've got three great panelists for you today, bringing you slightly researched predictions for the season ahead. We've got Matt Cadence. and Uncle Steve. So a Happy New Year to Matt. Two trumpets. Hello Matt.
And is it a merry new year to you? I think I got that right. Yes. Merry birthday to you and a happy new year. We were revolved around the sun and we will start afresh at 2025. And I think, Matt, I'm genuinely optimistic about. this year last year took a lot of recovering from just from the sheer weight of f1 and it's have you ever seen like when a kid has their first day at school and they're all excited and they come home buzzing and then they realize oh
Oh, we're doing that again tomorrow and the next day. That was what 2024 was like. But now for 2025, I think I'm weathered to it. So I know what's coming. Good, good, good, because you know all of 2025 is really just subtext for 2026. But it's its own thing as well. It's its own micro bubble. There's 35 races. There's 45 sprint races. The weekends never end. There's quadruple headers. And I will be, I'll be ready. I'll be stoically standing in the wind of F1 to take it on the chin.
For 2025. We're also joined by our video man. Uncle Steve. Steve Amy. Hello Steve. Greetings Spanners. And greetings from the upside down land summer. And I keep forgetting. Whenever we talk about. piastri or lawson and then you pipe up and i went oh no we said all those things in front of an australian how is your uh like nationalistic affiliation and do kiwis new zealanders also fall under your warm fan umbrella
Absolutely not. I'm, you know, I'm very nationalistic when it comes to our drivers. I support them all, even if they are terrible, although we haven't had too many bad ones. But we will wait and see about Doohan in the coming year, if he lasts the whole year. So Doohan's Australian. Yeah, he's the son of Mick Doohan, who was five times MotoGP. What was it called? Moto1 in those days. So you've got Doohan, you've got Piastri, and do you semi-adopt Lawson or no? No, I don't. No. Okay.
No, not that I hate all New Zealanders, but hang on. Let them have their own for a while. I have to admit, I'm the same with Scottish drivers. No general ill will, but, you know, there are sporting rivals. And we're also joined from Canada by Cadence Breaking. Hello, Cadence. Hello, how are you today? I'm good. Do you have nationalistic support for Canadians that pop up in F1? Latifi? Wrong to say no.
Well, I mean, you've not been... It's probably not very Canadian of me. You've not been dealt an amazing hand with... Latifi is probably the poorer of the offerings, but you've got Stroll now, who has been consistently F1ing, at least. You know, we have Stroll for now, but who knows how long he'll last? That might come up in our predictions. So I have asked the panel specifically to come up with predictions that is not...
who's going to win the championship or which drivers are going to do well in the table. Things that will happen in 2025 is what I've asked the panel to predict. So we will go to cadence braking.
that's your tick tock name cadence may may or may not be your legal name but cadence what do you have for us as your first 2025 prediction i think in 2025 that mclaren infighting is going to result in a Vettel and Weber 2010 moment, specifically when Vettel exits his car and does the little twisty thing around his ear and kind of does a he's crazy.
So you're projecting like a full falling out between McLaren teammates? I think we are about to see a very unfortunate head-to-head explosion between Piastri and Norris. A multi-papaya. Exactly. Well, we've already had our version of multi-21, which is Papaya rules. It's pretty similar, isn't it? So if they had some kind of agreement, which one driver is ignoring on track.
Those two are pretty equivalent. So, you know, that famous scene of Mark Webber throwing down the water and going, multi-21 Seb, reminding him of that. We didn't really get that from Norris or from Piastri. It seems to me like the team orders are more embedded and perhaps Norris and Piastri are more malleable. They're more...
I'm trying to find the word subservient, but I don't think that sounds right. I think that they're more team players than perhaps Vettel was. I don't think you've seen anything yet. I think that this last year was them trying, well, particularly Oscar trying to play nice because of the situation he was in. This year they start fresh. And it's going to be a war from the very first race between the two of them. McLaren have said that they will.
bring in some team rules, but they can't do that until there is a clear leader in the drivers table between those two drivers. And that's probably not going to really happen until we're getting close to the summer break. So the first half of the year is going to be, you know, gloves off, knock down fight between the two of them, and it's going to get very ugly. And I know where I'm putting my money. Well, tell us, Steve. Who do you reckon?
I reckon Piastri is a far better driver than Lando. I think Lando has reached his peak and is now beginning to slide away and he's being put upon by someone who has got lots of improvement to come and is a very, very good driver. And I think Lando is running scared. Oh, that is, that's a big call. So Matt, he's using the Lawson Tsunoda.
equation as well yeah well what i love about this is don't forget who piastri's manager is after all it's mark weber mark famously not bad for a number two driver weber But what I think the problem is with this prediction is that both drivers are a lot more savvy at the media management game. So even if we do see it coming together like this, it'll probably be a lot quieter. And Zach will come up with some...
half-cooked explanation afterwards to explain why that's exactly what they wanted anyway. Yeah, well, that's what we were going for. We really wanted that muddled confusion over the radio just to kind of bed in the race. throw off our competitors. I see Steve's point where Steve is saying, right, Norris is basically a fully mature F1 driver if he hasn't reached his potential by six seasons.
then something's wrong. So more than likely, he is at the peak of his potential. As much as McLaren were trying to downplay these championship hopes this year, they're like, oh, he's just a baby. Leave him alone. He hasn't even won a race yet, but that was his sixth season, I think. And, you know, Verstappen won the championship in his sixth season. I think Piastri's ceiling is definitely higher than Norris's. Norris is clearly still a very talented driver, but I think if his...
If he had a lot of growing to do still, we would have seen a couple things ironed out last season that just kept happening and mistakes that were quite repetitive. And additionally, I think a reason why. Yes, exactly. you know, the bottling into Turn 1 has been memed for a reason. And the other point is with both, with the kind of papaya rules thing, is that McLaren didn't come out swinging for the Drivers' Championship last year.
And I think if Piastri has a shot at a driver's title, he's not going to be backing down to team orders out the gate. I think Steve probably agrees with that. Can you see? OK, so in Brazil, they told him to move. He moved. And so my overriding feeling is they both will, even reluctantly, obey team orders. I just can't see a Red Bull situation. I can't see it. Oh, I can.
If Oscar is leading in the points and they tell him to pull over and let Lando go by, he ain't going to do it. No, there is no way. The observation I would make about this season is I think Steve McLaren probably see things similar to you or at least see Piastri as equal from what they've seen. They've got the data. They know how he's going to develop. They're probably very enthusiastic about it.
But they were treating him with equal status. And I hope this isn't too controversial before he got to equal performance. So Piastri on his day has been great and put in a great race, of course, a great qualifying. But he hasn't been consistently on the same level as Norris. And McLaren were treating him incredibly fairly as if he was on that level. And I think some of the conflict derives from that mismatch.
They were treating him like that because they can see his potential and know that he has way more potential than Lando has. And that's why they were treating him as, you know, equal because they know that he is going to walk right over Lando. Is there more potential than winning a driver's championship? Norris is the first real shot at that they've had. Now, the interesting thing to me here is that Piastri himself will admit...
He doesn't feel like he's quite on the same level with regards to Norris in terms of tire management, even after the conclusion of this season. I don't think he thinks it's far off. His peak is coming, but he's not there yet. Norris has all of the experience and the additional benefit of having been the only McLaren driver to continually give input into the car. What's going to interest me this season and what I really want to see.
is how much of Piastri they have taken on board into the genesis of their 2025 competitor. And if they've taken in a lot of his suggestions, we could see a wildly different set of results than we saw last season. Cadence, I have a concern. If you're right, and it does go a bit Red Bull 2010, I don't know what Stella's going to do. He doesn't seem like someone who's going to...
go on the war path and you're not going to see him grabbing both drivers by the scruff of their necks and dragging them through the garage after an incident. I absolutely agree. And I think that's why, you know, a team like Red Bull. If they have a driver head-to-head incident, I think, you know, they seem like a team that can handle that and just kind of say, lay down the law and go, this is the guy that we are going to back, you.
whoever the other driver may be, calm down. In the case of McLaren, I don't see them. I don't know how they will handle that situation. The first person I ever asked about this was Alan McNish in Formula E. Clang. Back in the day. I know I'm reaching back. I'm reaching back a long way. But what he said to me was pretty interesting.
I'm not sure that Stella would be the person who handles this. I think they could sit down in a big boss's office, i.e. Zack. And he says, listen, gentlemen, you may think that you are this team. But let me tell you something. You are absolutely not. And you are out the door if you keep up this nonsense one more second.
and that's someone he was like you know getting sent to the principal's office was the thing you were the most scared of i would hate to get dragged down to zach's office to be yelled at by him oh my goodness so i will say I'm taken aback by both these predictions. I like the prediction that it's going to kick off between them. There's definitely some tension there. And we saw the beginnings of it this season. But I'm also...
I'm surprised at the confidence of Steve saying Piastri is going to walk all over Norris. If that happens, that is super interesting. And if Piastri just puts manners on Norris next season, that is going to be a huge blow.
to Norris's career after losing out kind of wheel to wheel, not maximizing the potential of 2025 to then have Piastri overtake him next season will be very, very bad, I think, for his career. Let's go to... our next prediction and we're going to go to australia all right steve what's your prediction for 2025 i think that this is lancer's last year let's start there and i think that the reason i say that
that in the past it's been daddy's money that has paid for lance and bought teams in order to and bought practice sessions for him for a long time when they got in you know they took over the aston martin name and took over that team and started to develop it. It wasn't just daddy's money anymore. Lawrence leads a consortium of investors who have in the last two years pulled in i know in the notes i used a particular expression expression but let's just change that to report in a ton of money
to buy and build new plant and equipment to get lots of people and particularly to pay for Adrian Newey. They must have put in more than a billion dollars in that development. Those investors are going to want to see a pretty fast return on the money they've put in. And unfortunately, Lance is the millstone around that team's neck. And to a lesser extent, I think Alonzo is also a milestone around that team's neck. But that's for another discussion.
I really think that there will be a bucket load of pressure on Lawrence to quietly grab hold of his son, stick him into the WEC championship and to free up. uh a seat there and the obvious person to fill that seat would be yuki because uh they're going to have honda engines as of the beginning of 2026 so honda will want Yuki, who they've supported for almost 10 years in a competitive seat, and I don't blame them. And for that very reason, for the fact that.
Honda want Yuki in there, I can see Alonzo getting flicked too. And, I mean, there's a wild prediction for you, but you know who I think will step in and take Alonzo's seat in 2026? Go for it. I think it'll be Sainz. Ah, and that'll be his step back to the top. That will be his step back into a competitive team. All right, well, let's start with Lance Stroll. I want to see which one of the panel wants to get on this.
But what I would say is if quiet quitting was a Formula One manoeuvre recovering from an off in the wet at Brazil, then it would be Lance Stroll's... adventure into the gravel and I can't get over it. If I'm scrolling TikTok and I see an angle, even if I've seen it before, there's so many angles from the crowd of Lance Stroll just driving inexplicably into the...
the gravel trap, the clue being trap there and not into the vast realms of tarmac to his right hand side. I have to stop and watch the entire video. And you just have to wonder. I'm still waiting for the tape, by the way. I want the tape of the race engineer on the pit wall going, okay, Lance, vast concrete to your right. Let's use that. Let's definitely not drive into the gravel trap. And then you go, because Stroll just goes, I'm stuck. And then the radio goes dead.
I really want to see what the pit wall was doing. But Cadence, do you agree with Steve? I do agree with Steve. Kind of 50-50 here. I would not be shocked if Stroll got the boot for... like this coming season but what i think is slightly more likely is that he gets one last season uh with honda he gets 2026 and to see you know lawrence stroll will probably spin it as you know let's just give him
One last chance, see if he can improve. He will shockingly probably not improve. And then at the end of that year is when he'll probably get let go very gracefully into his future racing endeavors. Yeah, I tend to agree with cadence here more than Steve. I think if 25 is his last year, that's going to be a Lance choice. Lance is tired of being in Formula One and wants to go do something.
else and i and i think that's reasonable that could happen that could very well happen but it's a very clear argument if you look at how aston have arrayed themselves That 26 is going to be the real year and it's going to be hard for them to dislodge Lance until he's had a season in that car. That's what I think. And I think both he and the real question is.
How much money are they going to give Alonzo to ignore the entirety of the 25 season and still pretend to care? That's what I really want to know. I don't think it's Lance's decision or Lawrence's decision. I think that there is... you know a group of investors who want to see quick
progression from that team. They've put a lot of money in for a long time and they've sat on their hands and they've waited for Lawrence to play favourites with his son for how many years now? He's had his turn. And next year, Honda are coming... In 2026, Honda will be the engine suppliers. They won't want to put Yuki off for another year. What's he going to do?
Go and play tiddlywick somewhere. They will want him in that seat. Now, all of that pressure from the engine supplier and from the investors, it's not Lawrence's decision anymore. It used to be when it was all his money, it's not anymore. So whether Lance is ready for it or not, why is it Lance's decision?
He hasn't shown any ability at all. Why is it his decision? He's shown commitment, Steve. Did you not see him crash into the wall in Singapore? Oh, good on him. He's tried quite hard. What I do find with... I'm going to use the term Nepo, baby, because I don't think there's ever been a more fitting way to put it. But the bar is so low. And throughout Lance Stroll's career...
you know, people have set the bar so low and they'll go, well, he's not that crashy or he had those results when a bunch of other people crashed. I just don't know why the bar is so low for Stroll. What I'm really surprised about, Matt, is that... They haven't tried to elevate him sooner in this thing. So against Vettel, he actually looks pretty reasonable against Vettel. He's had his arse kind of handed to him by Alonso, maybe less so this season with the car being particularly difficult.
I'm surprised that they haven't really tried to nerf Alonso quicker and go, oh, look, see? But we did have a thing from Mike Crack saying, well, the gap's not that big between him and two-time world champion Fernando Alonso. And you go, is this... Are they brewing to it? Is next season the season where they start just pulling plugs out of Alonso's engine? I don't know. It's hard to tell. And they had such a terrible end to the year.
that it's going to be interesting to see which one of them, Stroll or Alonso, pays less attention and does worse over the course of next season if they've not made any improvement. But my argument here is a much simpler one, and I'm going to reference everybody's favorite dissembler, Cyril Abitable, which is...
Oh, it's a five year plan that starts this year. Oh, it's a five year plan that starts next year. Oh, it's a five year plan that starts three years from now. I think Stroll has gotten his investors on board. I think he's explained to them the realities of Formula One. And I think what he's promised them is at the end of 2026, they will see Aston go from being fifth, sixth place up into fighting third, second, first place. And if they don't deliver.
I think that's when the executioner comes calling for possibly Alonzo and almost certainly. lance if he doesn't if he can't put up at that point uh rather than i don't know shut up so we're definitely agreeing more than we're disagreeing so we're all agreeing that the end is soon steve is saying 2025 i am compelled by the argument that they've all been building to 2026 it's sort of the james vowels approach as well it's that nothing really matters until 2026.
With Aston potentially being a much stronger contender in 26 and beyond, that just bodes even worse for Stroll, because if they're new fancy facilities and they're new... Honda partnership and Newey come in and all of this comes together and they have a car that can actually deliver. I think Stroll will just be found out even more at that point.
well we might not know this is the sad thing when you've got a driver lineup where we know lance stroll isn't in the top echelon of drivers he's gotten to the point where he can drive an f1 car pretty competently when he's paying attention And then you've got Alonso, who's a bit of an unknown entity, given that he's 43. I think he's a year younger than me, that he's 43. And, you know, powers do fade.
with age for athletes so you could actually get to a position where and i i disagree with steve i think both those drivers will be retained into 2026 because that's been the whole aim and point of the project But when we get to 2026, we could have a driver who really doesn't have any more potential to unlock and a 44-year-old driver in an elite motorsport setting.
knew he could come up with an incredible car and then there aren't the drivers there to unlock it. And then it all goes wrong. They get the blame and, I don't know, Cadence. And the thing with Alonso, you know, still sticking it out, like as you said, and... the car could be fantastic and we might never see it is that if Alonso is still an F1 and I do believe that Alonso is a very talented driver I'd like to say it doesn't matter what his actual ability is at the current time
The general perception of him will probably still be he is getting the most out of that car when he could very well not be. Oh, yeah. And if you ask Alonso, he'll tell you. He'll tell you he's getting the most out of that car. He's not getting the most out of it. He's getting the most plus an extra 10% out of it. That is Alonzo. And it all depends on Alonzo's attitude. If he doesn't want to do it, then the car is a piece of garbage.
as far as he's concerned, and he'll he'll retire the car. He's done it in the past just because he couldn't be bothered driving it. It's not a matter of his abilities. It's a matter of whether he wants to do it or not. And when it comes down to his abilities, he used to be a good. but he was corrupted by various events and people. And I don't believe he's a good racer anymore. I think he's surviving on the merits that he had in the early 2000s.
And he shouldn't be there. Go away. Let other younger drivers get in. You know, I have a weird relationship with my fandom to Alonso. I definitely am hanging on to a delusion that he's still near his top four. So allow me that. I see your eyes rolling, Steve. This is a video call. But I get that that is possibly a delusion. I am clinging. I am clinging on to it. And it's good practice for Lewis in a few years time as well.
Well, I do want to get in here because I think 2026 is when Aston will know if they have a proper championship contender. And I'm pretty sure if I'm Alonzo, I've marked that in my calendar is if they don't. He's absolutely out the door. He has no patience for it at that point. But the thing to consider too, especially if you go and start looking at things like what the front wings are going to look like, we're back to an era of front wings.
that look like front wings in the early 2000s and there are only two drivers left on the grid with any experience with a car even vaguely those kinds of aerodynamics that's going to be lewis And that's going to be Alonzo. So I think both of them are probably putting a very big check next to 2026 and thinking that if they've got any more shot.
It might very well be that year. Now, Matt, I definitely listened to your tech time with Summers. Okay. Who we should say has launched a new sub stack in the next phase of his F1 career. And Matt, do you think we could get a link?
in the show notes to matt's substack so you can subscribe to his tech writing if you want to make sure he's already dropped a pretty interesting article today as a matter of fact there you go so I did listen, so I know whether or not you spoke about how much ground effect is going to be in the 2026 regs. Which is none. None. Well, that's not true. We are leaving what we have now, which is Venturi's.
behind right yes ventures yes the tunnels are gone so we're back to a more uh 2014 to 2021 kind of undercar aerodynamic it's still ground effect because there's still a lot of downforce that's going to be created there but what we're losing is in the previous in that regulation set we had what you uh what what we all jokingly referred to as the y2k vortex aka the y250 vortex which is that flat bit of the front wing yeah i can't remember before that era that
that wasn't required to be flat and it's not required to be flat again so the front wings are going to look like the ones from 2004 2005 where they can go right up to the nose and curve and that's an and that's that's why i think you know like these guys are looking at and they're like i recognize this car there we go driven this car and check out tech time for more of these insights and just go and look down our feed whenever you see summers's face or tech time in the title
But the thing is that some drivers will suddenly come alive again when they see this. And you kind of go, well, there's an argument that maybe Magnussen would have benefited. if he could have hung on until 2026. So you might even find the likes of Hulkenberg suddenly come alive as well. All changes of regulations and tech, particularly tech.
on cars will suit or not suit different drivers. I mean, I think that's what happened to Vettel. When we had the big double blown diffusers, he was unbeatable. The minute that they disappeared, suddenly he was kind of nowheresville. So I think that any change in the tech and the aerodynamics of a car will suit some drivers and not suit others.
This coming change at the beginning of 2026 could be the death knell for quite a number of drivers who are driving now because suddenly they'll find that they can't drive the car. And who were the... you know, the old school drivers who might remember the olden days, there are only three drivers next season over 30. From what I can tell, looking at the grid. Hülkenberg, Hamilton. and Alonso. So my prediction is about the rookies.
So you could have endless arguments about what constitutes a rookie and there might be some technical things. But for me, if you haven't done a full season's worth of races by the beginning of a season.
you're a rookie. So I'm 100% counting Behrman, who has done one and a half races, to be fair. In the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, he didn't have practice one or two, did he? So I think it was... practice three or did he just jump in for practice three qualifying and then the race and he was given a very limited brief and he was given the non-optimal but safest tyre strategy and then he got a full run later in the season obviously he's still a rookie this season
I don't care what the technical regulation article 7.82 says, Behrman's a rookie. And if you look at Lawson even, who's done, what, nine, ten races now, he's still not done a full season. So you can't take away his rookie season status when he hasn't even done a full year. To me, Lawson's still in his rookie year. He hasn't even realised that you're meant to jump out of the way of Verstappen yet.
He could be going up there and just sticking his nose in and then he will have to get corrected. He's that new. So we're going to have, by my reckoning, seven rookies on the grid next season. that's a crazy amount of rookies. That's the most, I think, since 2011. It is going to be carnage. I totally agree. And I think, yeah, we're at six rookies, by the way.
Who are you not counting? Oh, unless we're counting Alonzo, then it's seven. So that's the only iffy spot there. Okay, six rookies is still a lot. It's a lot, and... typically we see rookies come into midfield or backmarker teams, but this year we have rookies coming into Mercedes and...
red bull since we're counting loss in here i am and we have some midfield teams and we have some you know back marker so there isn't going to be a safe space on the grid they're going to be you know peppered around everywhere And we had this sort of thing where Sargent was causing a lot of safety cars. Latifi was causing a lot of safety cars. And actually, you go, well, Stroll is pretty sensible.
in terms of just not causing general chaos on the same scale. And you go, well, actually, there used to be a lot more safety cars. This year, didn't we go something like nine races without a safety car? I think next year is going to be, you're going to have to factor in now, in your tactics, safety car windows much, much more. This episode is brought to you by Thriver, the personalized health service that lets you listen to your blood.
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with treatments delivered discreetly to your door or local pharmacy for free. Superdrug Online Doctor. Doctor care. In a click. Terms and conditions apply. Go to onlinedoctor.superdrug.com to find out more. I mean, what you've got to remember is all of those rookies, and they're fairly well prepared, they seem to be better prepared these days than they have been in the past.
they all know that they have a very short time in order to do two things. One is they've got to make a point and prove that they should be in that team and they want to. earn enough points to be able to stand up and say, I'm a contender now.
There's so many of them, and they're going to be trying to do it as fast as they can. I would say the first half of the year, particularly, is just going to be, as you said, Spanner's total carnage. It's going to be a carbon fibre zone. And I think all of them, though.
they should, their managers, be telling them the cautionary tale of Colopinto. Should be like the boy who cried wolf. And they go, OK, come on, little Bortoletto, it's bedtime now. Read me a story, please, manager. And the story should be... Once upon a time, there was a very fast, likeable driver called Franco Colapinto. And then he binned it three times in two races and Red Bull lost interest in him. I'm sure we're going to come to Colapinto later on. But before that comes in...
I don't think you really can hold these young guys back because young people are pretty dumb. No offence to young people. Lots of offence to young people. But they tend to play the lower percentage. win or win they want to go for the ultimate success even if there's a lot of failure even if it means missing a lot of shots you know they are they're not gonna hit into the trees and then bump back out onto the fairway they're gonna go for that low stinger through the trees to the flag
Young person, Cadence, what's your take? Yeah, I'm actually, you know, I was 15 years old, so this is perfect for me. Right. If you watch Junior Series looking at Formula 3 and Formula 2, there are times where you will see the safety car come out six times in a race, or they have the top driver who's leading the race.
dnf you know four times within that one round oh what you'll lose four leaders so you'll be watching and four times you'll see the leader go it was the spanish formula three weekend um sometime uh i think maybe 2022 it was brutal and we are going to see drivers with that mentality in formula one at such you know six out of 20 that is a high percentage of the grid
And it's, yeah, it's going to be carnage. Okay. Do you mind going through the six with me? So I'm counting Lawson and Behrman, Antonelli, Bortoletto, Bortoletto, Hajar, and Doohan. doing so that's i always forget doing i feel bad well because well i don't know it depends how long that lasts matt uh well yeah i was just going to get in what i really love about this is
Normally, you talk about the carbon fiber zone at the start, like from P6 to about P12, where things can go wrong very rapidly. And anytime you have rookies there, and we've seen this in the past, Grosjean being a great example. at spa that the cold tires and the full car and all that extra horsepower compared to at the time gp2 but now f2
can lead to some very unfortunate, unfortunate events. But here, even when you start lapping people, and we did see some of this in the last season, I'm lapping this person or I'm... This person is going slow and qualifying on a build lap or an end lap. And they're like, what are they doing? And it's just like, oh, they're a rookie. They don't understand how to properly manage themselves.
the way we do it in this sport. So there is no safe place for any driver at any point on the track, except for that lovely bit when they're in the lead before they catch the first back markers. the drivers coming into formula one they rookies tend to be so selfish and they're they're still you know driving for themselves and they're just out yes they're impressive from time to time and things but they're
They're doing their own thing. And they really don't want to play by the F1 rules and give way to other people, like Matt said, on and out. Someone's on a build lap and qualifying or something like that. And I do think Matt's point about the start, though. I think the start is going to be the most interesting because those drivers are there. They're lined up. They're young, dumb and full of petrol.
Matt to Rumpets. Hey, Matt, before we get to your prediction for 2025, we've got more to do. We'll do it until the clock runs out. But your wife has a new book cover reveal for a book. Kiss and Collide. Yes, you are correct. That's the title. Kiss and Collide. Yes. Put that into context for me. So it's...
Formula One again. Formula One romance novel. It is a continuation of the first novel, or a sequel, one would say, maybe. Part of the same world. To me, that makes it sound like the driver's kiss, and then they collide. Because maybe. You're just going to have to read it to find out if you're that interested. I will not.
They are mucky and it's not the sort of thing that I will read. But of course, you guys are welcome to still go and buy The Fast and the Curious, which we'll link in the show notes. The Fast and the Reckless. Beg your pardon. Hey, look, you know what? We're both reaching the age where we occasionally misspeak, and that is fine. That's not true. I've never misspoke once. Shut up, Brad, who's always... Every single Monday. Actually, you mispronounced... You're going to settle this.
9,000 message WhatsApp argument on this show, aren't you? Yes, I stand by that you can say interchangeable conditions when it comes to talking about going from wet to dry. In any case... We'll follow the show notes and the Fast and the Reckless is available to buy now. And by all accounts, from everyone who's bought it, they very much enjoyed it if you're into the romance genre. Give us your prediction for 2025.
I'm sort of torn here. I'm not sure if I should start with the one I think you're most likely to agree with or the one that would make you most violently angry. Second one. OK, then I think Liam Lawson wins a race next season. that won't make why would that make me i have no vendetta against liam lawson i was simply supporting sunoda in that battle and pointing out that sunoda did quite well
Mm-hmm. Okay. All right. Well, I'm going to go with this. I will refer to the aforementioned Chaos, plus my personal thought that at least a portion of the season, I think Red Bull will have a genuinely competitive car to win. And given the fact that it won't be that competitive and Max will be doing a lot more wheel to wheel racing with people who are no longer interested in his nonsense, such as let us count them. Look, Lord, Hamilton, Doris.
Piastri, and my personal favorite, Russell, I see there's a very wide opportunity for Lawson to sneak a victory a la Perez. I don't think he has to sneak it. I think that Red Bull will allow him to have one victory just to prove that their choice was correct. If he goes the whole season without winning one race, then they will look like fools and they will have to wipe egg off their faces.
I don't think he has to try very hard. At one race during the year, Red Bull will allow him the victory just to prove that they were right. I get your point there, but also I think the bar is a lot lower. So... When was Perez's last podium? Miami? It was that kind of point in the season, wasn't it? Like it was, you know, a good dozen or so races without a podium. If Lawson's regularly on the podium behind Verstappen...
That probably does. That's probably fine. That's a big assumption. Yeah, but I think Matt's making a big assumption as well that Red Bull are going to be up there next season, Matt. How confident, how confident are you? Your prediction, your prediction. I did very much say at certain races. I didn't say the whole season. I think they're going to be circuit specific.
they will have competitive cars and i think you can reasonably infer that looking at the end of the season they had that really bad stretch from silverstone on but they did come back and look reasonably competitive at the end I don't think they're going to put a lot into their 25 basket because they're going to be worried a lot about 26, rightfully so, since they are going to become their own power unit manufacturer.
But I think they will have a car that can be competitive at certain circuits that suits the characteristics, and it will be enough circuits added to the rookie chaos we've already discussed. that there will be genuine chances for wins. I see Steve's logic with the, they have to prove their decision right, because if we end up talking about Leclerc and Hamilton, I think Ferrari are going to look super dumb.
If Hamilton doesn't start winning races and beating Leclerc, it's going to look like a very bad call. But Red Bull have shown no fear of making a bad call. So they had Albon and Gasly go in there and not really impress. against Verstappen. They were happy. They put De Vries in there and go, okay, well, they let that be what it was, AlphaTauri. And also, you know, Perez. The Perez situation can't be classed as a win. And I don't think...
I don't think anyone was saying to them, you must keep Perez. And they were like, no, against all the odds, we're bringing Lawson in. I think everyone was pretty ready for a Perez replacement. So that's why I think the bar is fairly... Low. I'm going to go against you, Matt. I'm going to say no. Not a single Lawson victory in 2025. Oh, I thought that was the end of the subject. You are, of course, simply wrong. You normally fight back. Just fine.
Yeah. No, no, no. I mean, we've elucidated the reasons multiple times why Lawson could win a race. And it's just down to him to actually do it when the opportunity presents itself.
And I agree with Matt. I think the opportunity will present itself and that Lawson will be able to take that win. And I don't think Red Bull will have to necessarily hand it to him. And what I see happening at Red Bull next year is to kind of... move away from the oh we treat our second drivers very poorly scenario is that we might see a little bit less of the oh we're using our second driver to test certain parts or in more kind of go down that lane.
What is it that you've seen that makes you come to that conclusion? I feel like they might be in the scenario that they start the season where at Red Bull everything's a bit too heated and that they want to do something. to try and keep the peace and that might be a last-ditch effort so christian horn has had a personality and brain transplant has he nah so i've heard
Yeah. OK, so I want to get on this. But first of all, I think we could simply boil the loss and wins prediction down to Russell takes Verstappen out or vice versa at some point. And secondly. I want to get in on this because the thing that I want to bring up is that Red Bull in the past, and I think this is particularly true with both Gasly, but especially with Albin, have shown themselves to be kind of vulnerable.
to enough media criticism they will want to avoid being criticized too much by the media because if they are they're going to have to get rid of lawson and then what are they going to do i mean you know sunoda obviously but they're not going to do that they know so what is hajar what are they going to do it's it's nuts but i do think they have a vulnerability there we're talking specifically 2025 and everyone's talking about potential with lawson
Let's not forget, he scored four points in 2024. Did not look better than Tsunoda. They might have seen some future potential. But it hasn't been realized yet. Remind me of what he did in Singapore in his first race. So what you're saying is... What you're saying is, let me reframe your argument into a much weaker argument that I can more easily defeat. So what you're saying is that this driver, who his potential has not brought him above Sonoda yet, is going to go up against Verstappen.
and be better than Verstappen on enough weekends that statistically he's going to get that opportunity to have a win presented to him, be ahead of Verstappen and then take that opportunity. I actually think that I'm guessing that the Red Bull is going to be not as dominant.
and that Verstappen is going to have the complete measure of Lawson, I actually think a Lawson win is unlikely. Wow, I was going to move on, Matt, unless you've got a really compelling counter to that. I do like having the last word, you know. I do, and that's why I was asking if I got one more word in or if we were going on. Quick one. Quick one. Quick one. Go, go, go. No, no, no. Everything you're saying is not my argument at all. I'm saying the chaos of the rookies.
And the fact that Max is going to have to fight a lot more with people who are less inclined to give him the kind of room that he's been allowed to have in the past almost ensures he finishes fewer races. And at least one of those races, the Red Bull will be competitive enough. competitive enough that lawson can sneak a win that's what i'm saying let's go quick fire
A little bit. So we'll spend a little bit less time on these next predictions and we'll linger with Cadence and Steve's prediction. So let's fire back and forth. Cadence, what else have you got for us? I think that Haas will have a very solid season next year.
they'll sneak a podium potentially and maybe even finish best of the midfield my problem with that matt and i see you with your thumbs up my problem with that is has really do have a problem maintaining race pace so yeah i think you know they could even pop up in a random poll in some weird session but they really don't seem to have the handle of of longer stints compared to the the front teams i think they beat alpine
I think they beat, I'm just going to call them Minardi because I don't know what they're called next season. Not everyone knows that. I don't think Williams or Sauber are in with a shout. Who are you calling Minardi for the less educated, for the newer fans? Alpha Tauri? Right. Okay. Anything is better than racing bulls or whatever it is. What are they called now? I'm an old man. Quit making fun of me.
Yeah, we were talking about Visa Cash App, Tsunoda's team. That's in HR next season. And I think the addition of the Toyota simulation facilities, which is a... big reason that they've come on board with Haas is going to be epic for Haas, the team, and make them even more competitive than they were. And let's remember, were it not for the race in Brazil,
They were already kind of nailed on P6 at that point. I think they'll be more consistent, as in they won't have those weekends where they absolutely tank and qualify, you know, P18 or P20. Sorry, I'm thinking about Alpine. Totally wrong team here. I think they will take a step forward as in they'll be hovering around those, you know, just above kind of, you know, P9, P8's place.
and then all it's going to take is like one or two weekends where they're maybe get a p5 finish sneak that podium and then they'll be able to wrap up the top of the midfield no problem i think kamatsu has done an amazing job and I think he'll continue to do an amazing job and I think that he's leading them up an improvement path and I wouldn't be surprised if they do end up well and truly.
the best of the rest next year. I've been really impressed with them during the 2024 season from a team that when they finally got rid of Gunter. was absolutely nowheresville, they are now beginning to be a reasonable midfield team. I think this is the first time that I've looked at Haas and gone, they have a very... clear direction and a clear vision and they are executing it well and i like to see that
Yeah, I agree. And what's that, Spanners? Do I hear you saying, but they have a rookie. How can they possibly do well next season? Well, if you listen to the Tech Time previously mentioned, then one of the things you did here... was that across the course of the entire season, Hulkenberg was the driver that got all the new parts first. And they also have a veteran driver who is...
I would argue, you know, the equal of Hulkenberg at minimum coming into the team. So I don't see a big problem with their point scoring scheme here. Ocon, I think, is going to be a big, big handful for Bearman. He's actually going to break some hearts here because I think there's a lot of British hopes around Bearman. I think Ocon is going to go in there and... Oh, I'm getting a... Is that Cadence with...
With the shaky heads. I think Ocon's going to break some British hearts. I thought you were going to say that Ocon's going to go in there and crash into Behrman a lot. That's also possible. I do not think that's going to happen at all. That's what I thought you were going to say. So apologies. Oh, no, you should just slate him anyway on general principle. While speaking to people who slate me on general principle, should we move on to Steve's prediction? Steve, hit us with another prediction.
Okay, I think that this year, and I'll just put a little caveat around this, I don't know whether it will come to the final head this year, but it will certainly start this year. I think that the FIA is going to die. Oh, Steve, you've stolen mine. I had that as well. FIA implosion. You can join it. No, this is more than an implosion. This is not about just the implosion. I mean, I'll agree that...
MBS is burning down the house. And as I said in one note, he's so busy burning down the house that he doesn't realise that his own ass is on fire. But my point is this. In the past, the teams and the FOM slash FIA, they had trouble. And that was in the days when Bernie and Max ran the various organisations and the teams tried to take them on. You remember in the late 2000s, there was this thing about setting up their own competition.
And Bernie and Max just stood up to them and beat them down. And that was the end of that. Things are different now. Now the teams are aligned with FOM Liberty. Yes. And they're at war with the FIA. As it turns out, the FIA has absolutely no power whatsoever anymore. And I can easily see a situation where the teams and Liberty, FOM,
that tell the FIA to take themselves away somewhere and die quietly in a corner and they will continue to run the competition. Sure, it'll be called something different. It'll be called, you know. super speed machines or whatever they want to call it formula race cars mate or whatever um and the in the past the thing that people have you know put up their hands and said is oh but all the
promoters are contracted to the FIA. These days, I would put it this way, the success of the sport is such that Liberty only have to go to the promoters and say, right, we're going somewhere else. I know you have a contract with the FIA, but we all know that contracts in this sport mean nothing. You have two choices either. you come with us and sign up with us and you can promote our races at all of those circuits, or you can promote a nothing because there will be no races there.
um what are the promoters going to do they're going to go with the fon liberty train in order to ensure their own survival. And here's the other part of all that thing. Remember, who owns the television rights to all of this sport? And so if the FIA and the promoters try. to get in the way of liberty and fom all liberty have to do is say right well the television rights will be for our races we will put them on air not for your
you know, F2 races that you're now promoting as being the pinnacle of motorsport. Yeah, well, this is it. I think people have in their heads that, well, the FAA owns the name F1. So there would be a slight inconvenience that, yeah, you'd have to call it Formula Race Cars. They work with some promoters. But also, Liberty are now a promoter. So Liberty are running the Vegas Grand Prix. And I think they could repeat that.
And they could incorporate extant racetracks or do street tracks. But also Liberty are a broadcaster with F1 TV. So that power balance has shifted. And who do you think Sky will go with? Do you think Sky will stick with whatever the FIA are putting out or they'll go with Formula Race cars with Liberty Media? And then the FIA, this is from speaking to Joe. I have no insight, but Joe Sayward says, well, the FIA...
is solely dependent on Formula One for all their money. So if they ever did make that split, it's only going to be called Formula Race Cars for a little while. until they dissolve and and vanish and then you go okay seeing as you're dissolving and vanishing how about we give you money for the name formula one and everyone likes money and then eventually the maths will math if that makes sense
And then there'll be Formula One again. And then in 10 years, we'll be podcasting and there'll be podcasts called Formula Race Cars, harking back to that golden time when Formula One briefly had to have another name. i think we've got time for another couple of quickfire ones we don't want to sneak over an hour of course matt but why don't we go back to cadence cadence give us another prediction for 2025. how about A sprint format changing again. The sprint format seems to change.
Every single season. And it's crazy because not only did everyone love the sprints so much when they were introduced in their first season, 2021, but people just seem to love them more and more every year, a survey says. So whether it be points down to P10 or a different qualifying format, I think we will see the sprints change once again. What do you think? What will they go for?
I think realistically, I think more points awarded because maybe ahead of potentially Cadillac coming in next year, start that season early. And it seems like... people are they want to make the sprint more valuable matt i've gotten lots of fan requests to mention tires and if i wanted to change this format of the sprint races and you mean formula i would have a sprint tire
that was only for the sprints and no one could run in practice. And they would have to decide during the race if it was going to make it to the end or not and decide to pit or not based on their assumptions that they made during the race. i think that could be some entertainment would it be as simple as saying start on the softest tire in a sprint race most of the time the softest tire wouldn't do the full sprint race
No, the real damage is done by being able to run the tire and get lots of data on it before you race it. If it's a mystery tire, a mystery compound that Pirelli brings, maybe it goes the whole distance easily.
But you're going to have to decide that after you've started the race. That puts a lot of different pressures on the team and doesn't let them use a lot of their modeling to help them make those choices. So I think it would be fun. How about we just make it a totally separate competition and make it so that... the reserve drivers and you know the support drivers are the only ones who can drive in it that gives them some
experience in the cars on the tracks and it also if it's a totally separate competition then it also preserves the special nature of the grand prix themselves but what instead of having them in the f1 cars because it could damage the f1 car for the main race why not have them have like a well a lower powered version of that car and then i would say i would say for the younger drivers make all those powered down versions the same spec
just so that it's fair. Well, you want to give the drivers experience in the same cars. If that was the case, I'd say give the teams a bigger budget cap each year and let them build three cars. And one of them is just for the sprint races, but it's the same spec as the Grand Prix cars. I feel like you were missing that I was hilariously describing F2. Yes, all right. Cadence.
On the topic of, you know, not sprints, but rookie drivers getting more time in Formula One cars, I know it was axed for 2025. But perhaps at the end of 2026, the idea that the F1 will be bringing in a rookie, rookies only race to either replace or accompany the postseason tire test in Abu Dhabi. or rookie test, I should say, is looking fairly likely. So that is something. And I don't know if they will televise that or not. But that's just one race. They need more than one race. No, agreed.
Yeah, I was going to say exactly what you said, except for in a deeper voice and slower with more hesitation. I like that. That's become your thing. Also, Steve, can we EQ down Matt's bass?
Because I think he's got a deeper rumble than me on this show. And I don't like that. So can we just spin that off? So the sprint races, though, at the moment, are fine. So they were actively... ruining the race weekend when they had them jumbled up in a weird order but now that it's kind of its own separate thing at the beginning of the weekend and then we reset and we go into the main grand prix qualifying that is that's better we still have the thing of
Well, it's giving away the conditions. But actually this year, I mean, if you look at Austria and there's a few examples where they've gotten a sighter of the tires and then gone, right, let's change our setup. And it's been completely different. for for the grand prix so i don't feel like that's been as much of an issue and i don't want to i don't want to come across like i've been taken in the invasion of the body snatchers and i'm suddenly pointing at you going sprint weekends are brilliant
But it's a broadly mature format now. Oh, Matt. It's Miami. Admit it. But when I was there, when I was at Miami, it was brilliant that there was a sprint weekend. You just had to be there. You just had to be there, but it... But like, you know, they're saying it's for the people at the crowd and in the stadium. And I've never been an F1 fan that gets to be at the stadium. When I was at the stadium, I was like, oh man, this is great that there's a little sprint race. But I will say it's better.
they've listened a little bit they're not going away but what they haven't done which i'm surprised with is they haven't increased the amount of sprint races yet i really really thought by now it would be 9 10 11 12 and i think eventually at the tracks where they can sell out the stands, they're going to have sprint races. And that's what's going to end up dictating it. All right. I think we're getting close to the end now, Steve.
Why don't you bring us home with another 2025 prediction? This will be Alpine's last year racing. I think before the end of the year, the team will be sold. probably to a Russian-controlled Middle Eastern shelf company. And Renault aren't interested in... formula one anymore they're interested in as much money as they can get as they step out the door and i think that in 2026 if in fact that the team you know fronts a car
then the team will have a different name. It'll be different principals. And hopefully their special advisor will be taken out the back and quietly dispatched with them. Okay, in a humane way.
Of course. Oh, no, don't worry about the humanity of it. Just do it. The death nail was Viri, Matt. When they announced Viri... Grow up, Matthew. When they announced Viri was... packing up and they weren't going to be making power units that is that's where we knew it's just an admission of everything that we've seen over the past decade which is that renault corporate lacked the commitment that we saw
uh from stuttgart with uh mercedes to to plow the money into it to get the results they wanted all along it was going to be done on the cheap and really the first hint of that had to be
the 2014 power unit that showed up in the back of the Red Bull. Because Reno had a long and storied history of powering world champions and of not always being the most powerful engine, but... of being very clever lots of technological breakthroughs but the the 2014 power unit was just um oh yeah well we're not going to hire anybody we're not going to spend any extra money on it i'm sure you guys will figure it out eventually and it will be fine and they were very wrong but
it had low performance and low reliability it wasn't like it was blowing up because yeah you know there were 110 it was just the worst of all worlds Yeah, no, and they officially decided to not spend any extra money on it in the same... development cycle that mercedes spent over a billion euro and had over you know 1500 employees between the two teams working flat out day and night to make the mercedes 2014 power unit the thing
they could have spent a little bit more money and at least had something vaguely respectable the fact that they didn't looking backwards is like the real signal that Renault was not going to back this in the way that it needed to be backed. And the sad thing about this in the franchise-esque model that we've got now is a team, like a works team, if it was Renault... they're pushing for success they might invest and pour money in when you've got a Briatore led investment firm or like a Janai type
investment firm or whatever takes over from Aldi. What you've got here is then investors who've put money in and want a return on that investment.
so a they're holding out for the value to increase so they can sell it later down the road but they also don't want to be pouring money in there they we're going to see an increase in pay drivers now because the post alpine endstone outfit is going to be selling those those seats and is not going to want to be developing and look at Sauber this year one point one point this year because you had a billionaire sitting on it not wanting to spend any money
And so that's going to happen. And it's a big loss and people will think Audi are coming in to replace that. They're probably not. It's probably not going to happen. Matt, you and I, we have our predictions that we've done for tonight. We're going to store them up because I think we've got two or three more shows of these kind of predictions. We have more material than show. When does that ever happen? When does that ever happen? And we'll get, of course, more of the crew to give.
their predictions but thank you so much to our panelists today cadence breaking who is a very prevalent on tiktok and instagram you swarm uh both of those for me and you do great hot takes and uh I think some of the funniest F1 content out there, and it's all very kind of, it's very set piece visual comedy. I enjoy it very much. Thank you very much. And yeah, I am at cadencebreaking on Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook. There's a variety of content there.
Ranging from, you know, F1 discussion and commentary to, like Spanner said, there's some comedy as well to keep the mood light. Genuine set piece on purpose comedy. Very hard to do. I found some of your TikToks very funny. Go and follow Cadence. There will be the links in the show notes below. Steve, have you got a TikTok set up or anything? No. Skip rope in a crop top whilst giving hot F1 takes.
No, it's not a bad idea, but no, it'll never happen. Let's think about it. My social media is restricted to our fine, you know, map. stuff channels that we have it's all he can take are the youngins all right so as usual just like I do with with Christian without his social media I will be posting Steve's home address
in the show notes below. Go and check that stuff out. Go and follow Matt at MattPD55 on all social media platforms. I've been doing a bunch of stuff on TikTok and Instagram. So follow Spanner's already there. We're on Blue Sky. We're on Twitter. And until we see you next, work hard, be kind, and have fun. This was Miss Apex Podcast. Maybe Steve will save me in the edit. Who knows? I don't deserve it. I'm rusty. I've had time off.
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