#89 Unlocking the Science of Exercise, Nutrition & Weight Management, with Eric Trexler

[Alex Andorra]: Eric Trexler, welcome to Learning Bayesian Statistics. [Eric]: Thanks. Yeah. Great to be here. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, thank you for taking the time. I am really happy to have you on the [Alex Andorra]: show for a lot of reasons. The main one is that you work on really interesting [Alex Andorra]: topics, at least to me. I've been nerding out on your content for the last [Alex Andorra]: few months, and I really love it because it's basically scientific breakdown.

[Alex Andorra]: of the sports and nutrition sciences literature. So I am pretty sure that [Alex Andorra]: my listeners will at least appreciate the very nerdy sciences side. This is actually [Alex Andorra]: the very first podcast I'm doing about fitness topic, which I discovered as [Alex Andorra]: I dove into the literature. It's actually a very nerdy topic, so I'm really

[Alex Andorra]: happy about it. And so I would encourage. all of my listeners to actually [Alex Andorra]: pay attention to it a bit more if they are not, because it's extremely interesting. [Alex Andorra]: And it's also good for your health and body. So several birds with just [Alex Andorra]: one stone. So let's start. Lots of questions for you. But as usual, let's start [Alex Andorra]: with your origin story, Eric. So yeah, basically, how did you come to the

[Alex Andorra]: world of? sports and nutrition sciences and what was the egg and the chicken? [Alex Andorra]: Did sports come first or did science come first in your interests? [Eric]: Yeah. I mean, so like a lot of people in my field, uh, the sport came first. And [Eric]: then at [Alex Andorra]: Uh-huh. [Eric]: some point you have to figure out what you're going to do with your life. And then [Eric]: the science becomes a little bit more pertinent, uh, unless you're going to become

[Eric]: a professional athlete. Uh, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: which not, not particularly likely based on the, uh, based on the percentages there. [Eric]: So I started out, um, really enjoying sports, uh, mostly football, baseball and wrestling. [Eric]: So. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: Those are all in different seasons, so it'd keep me busy all year. Football got [Eric]: me really interested in wanting to get bigger and stronger. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: And then later I started wrestling and had to do weight manipulation. I had to lose [Eric]: weight, stay lean, try to maximize not just total strength, but strength relative [Eric]: to body mass. So I started different types of, you know, strategies to, to lose [Eric]: body fat while keeping muscle and then, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: you know, weight. You know, water related strategies, kind of adjusting hydration based [Eric]: on when weigh-ins are and, you know, trying to dehydrate for weigh-ins safely and [Eric]: rehydrate when I needed to really be at my best. So yeah, I just kind of became [Eric]: fascinated with these topics and really tried to be very analytical about what I was [Eric]: doing. Even I mean, I was obsessed with fitness by 12 and by 16 was starting to kind

[Eric]: of dig into the nuances of nutrition. And so my career trajectory really kind of [Eric]: took off from there. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, that's extremely early. Were your parents already into fitness topics [Alex Andorra]: like that? Or did you meet someone that was really into that and introduced you? [Alex Andorra]: Or was it just you at 12 starting to look into all that? [Eric]: Yeah, I mean, it was when I was 12, I just love sports. It was not something that

[Eric]: was really emphasized by my family. My parents were not like fitness enthusiasts [Eric]: by any means. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: So for me, it was just, I just wanted to be better at football, which I loved. And [Eric]: I was the only person in my family that really cared that much about football. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: Um, when I was wrestling, I will say there was a particular coach. who was a really [Eric]: avid fitness enthusiast and we would train together and he would kind of give me, [Eric]: he was a subscriber to Muscle and Fitness Magazine and when he was done with an issue, [Eric]: he'd say, here you go, you can have this one. And that kind of, the way that we [Eric]: approached training, it was the first time, for four years, from 12 to 16, I was

[Eric]: just really doing it alone. Didn't even have a [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: training partner really. but probably around age 16 when we started training together. [Eric]: I feel like then he kind of really took a passion for fitness that I had and really [Eric]: developed it into something more where it was not just passionate about fitness, but [Eric]: passionate about digging beneath the surface and exploring different strategies.

[Eric]: It kind of planted that seed. It wasn't rigorous science that he was [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: giving me, but it was at least that fundamental concept. of exploring, hypothesizing, [Eric]: testing, reassessing that kind of iterative process that I think planted the seed.

[Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Um, and I, I found that also fascinating when I started digging [Alex Andorra]: into that, um, so yeah, like one of the, one of the things I thought about [Alex Andorra]: when you said as, um, like, like a lot of people in your field, sports, [Alex Andorra]: uh, came before science. And I finally have the directed acyclic graph now, [Alex Andorra]: because I was always wondering, you know, like, of course, science doesn't

[Alex Andorra]: have as a general. You know, in the general population, when you say you're [Alex Andorra]: a scientist, people don't think you're extremely fit. Like they mostly think [Alex Andorra]: you're very like kind of nerdy and stuff like that. So, but then you look [Alex Andorra]: at the world of sports science is really, you know, on its own because people [Alex Andorra]: are extremely fit. They do a lot of sports and they are scientists, which

[Alex Andorra]: if you go to other fields, I can confirm it's not the same. So it was always [Alex Andorra]: like. But I'm wondering what the causality here, like the direction of the [Alex Andorra]: causality is. You know, is that because these people applied those strategies, [Alex Andorra]: then they became very fit or were they fit already, and then they became

[Alex Andorra]: interested in the science. So. [Eric]: Yeah, I will say though, it can go both directions in the sense that more conventional [Eric]: team sports got me into embracing a more scientific approach. But then [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: as I pushed further in that, it created an interest in bodybuilding for me.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: So sports like football and wrestling brought me to science and then science and [Eric]: physiology brought me to bodybuilding because I was so fascinated by how physiology [Eric]: changes under these extremely unusual constraints that we see with high levels of [Eric]: muscularity, low levels of body [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: fat, severe caloric deprivation, things like that.

[Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Definitely the application of the scientific principles [Alex Andorra]: then enhances also your training and makes it more efficient, in a way. I mean, [Alex Andorra]: most of the time, that means you're not losing too much time at the gym, [Alex Andorra]: and you're not leaving gains on the table, which I guess everybody wants. [Alex Andorra]: But not everybody thinks about it in a scientific manner, where it's like,

[Alex Andorra]: I just do the stuff, and then I grind at the gym. But actually, I'm losing [Alex Andorra]: time and gains on the table. But here, that's also the thing I really love, [Alex Andorra]: is applying these little experiments on myself, and then seeing the science replicating [Alex Andorra]: itself is always, for me, incredible. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: I forgot what I wanted to ask next, but that's really cool. I love your...

[Alex Andorra]: path and passion, basically. Like you always, in all of your content, we [Alex Andorra]: can refill your passion for your topics. And so I'm wondering basically [Alex Andorra]: from what you're saying, I guess what the answer is, but would you say your [Alex Andorra]: path was very random or was somewhat clear to where you are now? And basically [Alex Andorra]: I'm asking you if... Your career is replicable, Eric, which is what we all care [Alex Andorra]: about in this podcast.

[Eric]: I would say that it is broadly replicable, you know, in the sense of, you know, from starting [Eric]: point to outcome. I don't think that there's anything particularly special or unique [Eric]: that I have accomplished in my career trajectory. But I will say that zooming in [Eric]: a more granular way and looking not just at, you know, point A and point Z, but [Eric]: looking at the intermediate steps in between, that [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: was all random. Uh, it would not be, I don't think you could replicate it. I, there's [Eric]: just [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: a bunch of anyone who looks back at, you know, how they, uh, went through life. [Eric]: It's a bunch of random, random choices. Most of the best mistake, the best decisions [Eric]: that I've made have been, uh, decisions that I made for the worst reasons possible. [Eric]: Right. And so like, [Alex Andorra]: Haha.

[Eric]: I can look back and say, wow, what a great decision and give myself credit [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: for the outcome. But [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: I know that the, the reasoning for it. was completely dissociated from, you know, [Eric]: why it turned out to be a good decision. So yeah, it's life's weird like that. You know, [Eric]: you, you think, you know, when you're making an important decision, you rarely do.

[Eric]: You know, when you think something is a really important decision, it usually isn't, [Eric]: and then the mundane stuff turns out to be the most pivotable, most pivotal, uh, [Eric]: turning points in your entire life. So it's been weird. It's been random, uh, wouldn't [Eric]: change it. Like where I'm at. Um, And yeah, I mean, I think the biggest thing with [Eric]: the path, zooming out a lot and just saying, you know, you like fitness and you

[Eric]: like science, of course this has been the path. It's easy to do that in retrospect. [Eric]: And so in the broadest sense, I'd say, yeah, totally predictable. I'm gonna do something [Eric]: involving fitness and science, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: but I've been surprised every step of the way in terms [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: of what that has looked like.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah. And I mean, perfect. This is a show about uncertainty and randomness [Alex Andorra]: and how to estimate it, but also how to embrace it to better live with [Alex Andorra]: it. So, you know, that's perfect. We love random path here. And mine is definitely [Alex Andorra]: very random. So, you know, I definitely can relate to that. So now let's [Alex Andorra]: turn a bit to what you're doing today. And basically, first, a general perspective

[Alex Andorra]: is that now you're part of Herman Ponzer's lab at Duke University. Some listeners [Alex Andorra]: may have heard of Herman Ponzer's because he wrote a pretty well-known book called [Alex Andorra]: Burn, which I put in the show notes. I haven't read it yet, but it's on my [Alex Andorra]: reading list. I've been introduced to it. Thanks to your writings mainly Eric, [Alex Andorra]: and especially the metabolic adaptation manual that is in the show notes

[Alex Andorra]: also. And of course, we're going to talk about metabolic adaptation because [Alex Andorra]: it's one of your babies. But first, more generally, can you tell us what [Alex Andorra]: you're studying at Duke University? And yeah, what's your job nowadays? [Eric]: Yeah, it's really crazy to, like I said, didn't predict exactly where I'd end up professionally. [Eric]: It's crazy because over the last several years, one of the things I do is the mass research

[Eric]: review. It's [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: every month we review current research in exercise and nutrition. We get pretty nerdy [Eric]: with some of the stats. Depending on your experience level, you might say, wow, [Eric]: this is pretty thorough. But if you're like a bona fide stats expert, you'd say, okay, [Eric]: this is... adequate, you know, but, um, but we, we try to make the, the fitness

[Eric]: and nutrition information very practical, very applicable. And sometimes, you know, we'll [Eric]: see a meta analysis that everyone's talking about and say, no, we need to re-crunch [Eric]: the numbers and we'll [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: actually, you know, we'll do it, uh, begrudgingly, cause it's a lot of work sometimes, [Eric]: but, um, anyway, so in mass, I had been reviewing Herman's work. Um, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: I had reviewed several of his papers in recent years and I, I just kept saying, [Eric]: man. this guy in this lab is doing some of the most fascinating research that's happening [Eric]: in our fields. And it happens to be right down the road from me. Like [Alex Andorra]: Oh yeah. [Eric]: I was living, yeah, I was living like 20 minutes from his lab and had never met him, [Eric]: had never talked to him. And I was just like, you know, this is the most fascinating

[Eric]: research that I'm seeing in the last five years or so. And so a position opened [Eric]: up in his lab and I said, let's do it. You know, let's go for it. And so that's where [Eric]: I am now. Um, it's great working with Herman and, um, just getting started there [Eric]: actually. But we have some cool projects going on. I mean, Herman, he's, he's really [Eric]: known for his work on the constrained energy expenditure model, which, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: uh, is kind of the focus of the book, burn. Which basically indicates that there's [Eric]: kind of a surprising, uh, what appears to be a ceiling effect on total [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: energy expenditure such that. when people are doing a ton of exercise and thinking, man, [Eric]: I'm burning all these extra calories, they are increasing their total energy expenditure [Eric]: in the vast majority of cases, but a lot of people underestimate the compensatory [Eric]: mechanisms by which, as you increase exercise energy expenditure, your body tends [Eric]: to do some very subtle things to reduce your basal or resting energy expenditure to

[Eric]: kind of offset some of that. energetic cost. It's kind of like if you increase expenditures [Eric]: in one area of your budget, it would be a nice conservative choice to reduce expenditures [Eric]: elsewhere to kind of make the budget work. So that's what we're, that's kind of [Eric]: like the main primary focus of the lab is kind of testing out these different constraints [Eric]: on energy expenditure and looking at what's really going on during various models

[Eric]: of increased... energy costs. So looking at fairly intense exercise, looking at things [Eric]: like pregnancy, which are [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: very energy intensive and looking at the combination of the two. So [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: that's kind of one consistent line of research is looking at those constraints on [Eric]: energy expenditure across many different species. So we don't, in our lab, we don't [Eric]: only do human research. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: You know, there's some animal research in the mix as well. So that's one thing that's [Eric]: going on. currently is mostly in some of the applied ramifications of energy [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: expenditure regulations. So I'm working on a project now where we're looking at folks [Eric]: in a fairly high stress occupation and [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: we're doing a very comprehensive study to explore a variety of outcomes that are remarkably

[Eric]: wide ranging and comprehensive in nature. So physical activity and energy expenditure [Eric]: are a component of the research. but we're also looking at relationships with stress

[Eric]: and diet. And, um, you know, we're looking at a lot of psychological outcomes on top of [Eric]: our physiological outcomes to see, you know, when we look at a total picture of someone [Eric]: in a stressful occupation, and we look at their sleep, their physical activity, nutrition, [Eric]: uh, their stress management, how do [Alex Andorra]: Hehe. [Eric]: these affect the broader picture of overall health and wellness? Um, so it's fat.

[Eric]: It's really fantastic because I, have always loved energy expenditure regulation, [Eric]: but one of the things that I think erroneously talked me out of diving straight into research [Eric]: after my PhD, I've been doing a lot of research in my PhD, took four or five years,

[Eric]: did more private business related things, and now I'm back in the research game. One [Eric]: of the things that kind of dissuaded me from starting my own lab right away, was [Eric]: I felt like I was perhaps too much of a generalist to really sink my teeth into a [Eric]: very narrow line of research. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: I kind of looked at where are my passions? What is my training background looking like?

[Eric]: How will I make this all work in a cohesive line of research that is narrow and focused [Eric]: enough to make incremental progress in the field? And I was really coming up short [Eric]: to be totally candid. And I said, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: well, if you can't... really paint that picture, it's probably best to not go and start

[Eric]: a lab and kind of try to figure it out at some point along the way. After taking a [Eric]: few years and embracing the idea of being a generalist and having multifaceted [Eric]: interests, I feel totally reinvigorated as a scientist and as a researcher. And this [Eric]: is a perfect project to allow me to integrate all those general generalist things

[Eric]: that I've been kind of exploring over the last several years. I've been writing about [Eric]: not just physical activity and energy expenditure, but nutrition and sleep and stress. [Eric]: To be able to wrap those all up into a big project is tremendously lucky. Again, [Eric]: just totally random, but really fortunate.

[Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. Yeah. And so thanks for this introduction. We're going to dive [Alex Andorra]: into these topics, but yeah, like something I learned also by reading your [Alex Andorra]: content is how broad basically is the whole field. And it's not just looking [Alex Andorra]: at exercise basically in training, but it's also about sleep, about nutrition.

[Alex Andorra]: Um, something I discovered myself is that nutrition is extremely important. Uh, [Alex Andorra]: and, and not that much talked about in, in the end, like people really emphasize [Alex Andorra]: the training, but, um, if you forget nutrition, it can really, really hinder [Alex Andorra]: you or, uh, on, on the contrary, really help you. So that's definitely something [Alex Andorra]: I learned, like basically having that holistic approach to, um, to the. to the

[Alex Andorra]: training and not only the exercise part for sure. And to relate basically what [Alex Andorra]: you said about the constraint energy expenditure model, which I found fascinating [Alex Andorra]: also. Basically, it would be for my listeners, if you folks have worked [Alex Andorra]: with, for instance, a multinomial model, that could be like that. Multinomial, [Alex Andorra]: you have to use a softmax link function and the Toft Max makes it a zero-sum

[Alex Andorra]: game in a way. So if one category increases, then one other category has to decrease. [Alex Andorra]: I'm not sure the constraint energy expenditure model is exactly a zero-sum [Alex Andorra]: game in the sense that would mean you cannot make some games after some [Alex Andorra]: point, which if I understood correctly, it's not really the case. So you [Alex Andorra]: could say, I don't know if it's a one-sum game. So you still make gains, but

[Alex Andorra]: very small. because the body basically has all these checks and balances [Alex Andorra]: to basically prevent you from starvation, which in a way, it's pretty cool. [Alex Andorra]: But I found really interesting because nowadays in our current environment, [Alex Andorra]: we don't really face that risk a lot, at least in our societies and what basically

[Alex Andorra]: made us to the... One of the things that help us go to the top of the food [Alex Andorra]: chain is today something that really prevents us from making the most muscle [Alex Andorra]: gains that we could. I find that kind of ironic. I'm sure Darwin would [Alex Andorra]: appreciate it. [Eric]: Yeah, and it's funny that you mentioned Darwin because the department that I'm in now

[Eric]: is evolutionary anthropology. So when we explore these topics of innate inherent [Eric]: physiological constraints, a lot of times we do come back to what is the evolutionary [Eric]: purpose? You know, in what way would this make sense within an evolutionary framework? [Eric]: And when it comes to regulation of body weight and, you know, by extension, energy [Eric]: balance, you know, body [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: weight and body composition are basically a long-term expression of energy [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: balance over time. Um, it's really fascinating because the two major constraints, we have [Eric]: constraints on both boundaries. One is starvation and the other is, uh, thought [Eric]: to be predation, you know, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: uh, becoming prey of a hunting animal. And it's really fascinating to see how those [Eric]: two, I think they're really elegantly described in the dual intervention point model [Eric]: by John Speakman, who does a lot of research on energy expenditure regulation. [Eric]: And it's really fascinating to look at that and to say, you know, we're now so [Eric]: far removed, fortunately, in a lot of developed areas and areas [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: with, you know, a surplus of resources. It's not true everywhere in the world, but [Eric]: in many places, we are very much removed from these two important constraints that really [Eric]: dictate everything that we're looking at in terms of energy expenditure and body [Eric]: composition. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I find that super interesting. That also makes me wonder, [Alex Andorra]: if homo sapiens manage somehow to not destroy the planet and stick around

[Alex Andorra]: for long enough, would evolution catch up at some point? And we wouldn't see [Alex Andorra]: these constrained energy models. But then, who would live in a world where maybe [Alex Andorra]: that would be way easier to put on some muscle gains because muscle is [Alex Andorra]: not going to be such a drag on your probabilities of surviving. Do you [Alex Andorra]: think about those kind of stuff? Or am I the only nerdy guy here thinking about [Eric]: Well, [Alex Andorra]: that?

[Eric]: I think largely in the field of evolutionary anthropology, we look at the timeline of [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: evolutionary history and I think it kind of creates this perspective of perpetually [Eric]: looking backward, because you say [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: if we divide it up into the kind of modern applications and then all of the data [Eric]: before it, you look at it and you say, well, the vast majority of what we can learn

[Eric]: from this is all from the past. It's kind of making sense of the present by looking [Eric]: through the prism of the past. So I must admit as a clear blind spot, I don't spend [Eric]: a lot of time necessarily looking forward far enough to incorporate changes in evolutionary [Eric]: constraints. Because you're talking many, many [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: generations. And like you said, I think before we get there, we have some... very pressing [Eric]: applied questions to answer within the next two or three generations, before we start [Eric]: thinking about that stuff. So [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: it is fascinating though, on times when you're not quite as busy getting projects over [Eric]: deadlines to maybe ponder that and take some time to think through it.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah, I mean, that would definitely make for a science fiction novel. I would read, [Alex Andorra]: you know, like a world where [Eric]: Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]: these kinds of constraints have shifted. I don't know. I imagine me being a [Alex Andorra]: scientist at that time and, you know, having the constraint model in mind [Alex Andorra]: and I like, basically we have figured out more or less how to do those things [Alex Andorra]: and then you find some specimen from Homo sapiens, which who do not have those [Alex Andorra]: constraints and then they can just... build some so much muscle because they

[Alex Andorra]: have adapted. That would be a fantastic side fiction novel. If [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: anybody wants to write it, please contact me. We'll get you on the show right [Alex Andorra]: now.

[Eric]: Yeah, but it even is like, it's really fascinating. We don't have to go that far to [Eric]: entertain some of these really exciting and thought-provoking questions pertaining [Eric]: to evolution and the challenges we face as humans, because you think about something [Eric]: like space travel, which [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: theoretically could become much more relevant in the next several generations. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: Maybe, I don't know. I'm not an expert [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: on that, but looking at physiological responses to uh, to microgravity, uh, it becomes [Eric]: so abundantly clear that this human machine really assumes that you're going to [Eric]: have a particular amount of gravity and it affects a lot of different systems in [Eric]: the body. And once you remove gravity, I mean, when people come back from space, their

[Eric]: bodies are tremendously different and there is a significant recovery period. And [Eric]: some things I've seen some recent research indicating that some changes in the brain, [Eric]: uh, take a very, very long time to restore back to kind of baseline characteristics. So [Eric]: very, very fascinating stuff that, yeah, we can only really answer those questions by

[Eric]: looking back and saying, well, how did we get here in the first place? Why do our [Eric]: systems function the way that they do? [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: Which is, I think that's my favorite thing about transitioning from being in exercise [Eric]: science departments to being in evolutionary anthropology now [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: is that The questions are so much, they're the things that kind of inspire so much imagination

[Eric]: and creativity. I mean, you still have to then dig in and do the less imaginative, [Eric]: more robust, you know, actual science. But just that kind of initial hypothesis generating [Eric]: conversation, the questions are so big. And [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: so, yeah, they just kind of make you smile when you think about the possibility [Eric]: and and the overall scope of some of the questions that we have to answer.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, no, for sure. I mean, I really love that field also for that,

[Alex Andorra]: evolutionary anthropology. And I think only physics also bring those kind [Alex Andorra]: of questions to mind for me also, where it's like, some might read something [Alex Andorra]: about evolutionary anthropology or physics, and like at some point, I'm gonna [Alex Andorra]: end up asking myself some very existential philosophical questions, which [Alex Andorra]: is [Eric]: Yeah, [Alex Andorra]: super interesting.

[Eric]: I don't know if you've been reading up on it, but physics is really heating up [Eric]: right now. There's some muon research that people are [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: getting really, really excited about and they're thinking some chapters of textbooks [Eric]: might need to be rewritten relatively soon, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: which is not too often that you get to even entertain those kinds of ideas.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, for sure. And so I think it's a perfect, thank you, Eric. And [Alex Andorra]: I swear people, we didn't prepare that, but that's a perfect plug because I told [Alex Andorra]: listeners that there was a very special episode coming in and I didn't say [Alex Andorra]: what it was about. But this summer I was lucky to be invited to CERN to [Alex Andorra]: the Collider and I filmed over there. It's gonna be the first video documentary

[Alex Andorra]: episode we're gonna have. here, and we were actually lucky to see the control [Alex Andorra]: room of the Atlas experiment at CERN, which is one of the experiments which [Alex Andorra]: is looking to muons, as you were talking about, Eric. So yeah, it's definitely [Alex Andorra]: fascinating. And I'm working on editing that episode, folks. It's going [Alex Andorra]: to take a lot of time because I'm not a video editor. So it takes me a lot

[Alex Andorra]: of time to do it, but it's really fun. And I hope you'll enjoy it. It's going [Alex Andorra]: to be a very long episode. I think the longest of the whole podcast, but [Alex Andorra]: super fascinating. [Eric]: I just want [Alex Andorra]: Thanks [Eric]: to say, [Alex Andorra]: a lot for. Yeah. [Eric]: getting back, that's awesome, but getting back to the randomness of careers, this, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: for years I would go on podcasts and I'd be one person in this kind of rotating [Eric]: cycle of like fitness professionals. This year, you know, I've been on two podcasts [Eric]: where one person says, hey, by the way, next week we've got Noam Chomsky coming on. [Eric]: And I was like, what, [Alex Andorra]: Nice. [Eric]: what do you mean? How did this happen? Why am I on the same podcast as, you know,

[Eric]: like, how is, how is there any overlap whatsoever? And now, you know, hey, by the [Eric]: way, we're going to, you know, show you Inside CERN in a few weeks, like, or a [Eric]: few months. I don't want to rush your video editing, but [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, thank you. [Eric]: yeah, just weird. Just weird. Exciting, though. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, I mean, common denominator here, Bayesian stats. Everybody needs them

[Alex Andorra]: and use them. But yeah, no, thanks for this amazing plug, Eric. It was [Alex Andorra]: perfect. And let's go back to you now and talk about metabolic adaptation. [Alex Andorra]: So we've talked a bit about it now. You've written a very extensive guide [Alex Andorra]: that I'll put in the show notes. So maybe can you tell us a bit about what metabolic [Alex Andorra]: adaptation is and why that's important?

[Eric]: Absolutely. Yeah. So dieting is hard. If you ask someone who's trying to lose weight [Eric]: and lose body fat, it is really difficult and there are many, many reasons for that. [Eric]: But one area of research is very interested in kind of unraveling what those specific challenges [Eric]: are and why they arise. So kind of uncovering some of these things that make dieting a little [Eric]: bit more challenging than we think it ought to be. Because on paper, it's very simple,

[Eric]: right? You know, when there's too much energy, when there's a surplus of energy, you [Eric]: produce the intake or you increase the expenditure and there you go. Now you're back [Eric]: in, you've got energy balance where you want it to be. So it should be conceptually

[Eric]: quite simple, but in application, it's tremendously challenging. One of the many challenges [Eric]: relates to metabolic adaptation, which is that when people start to... lose weight [Eric]: via caloric restriction, we tend to see that basically their energy expenditure

[Eric]: goes down more than we would predict. So what I mean by that is if a person, let's [Eric]: say a person is reducing their energy intake so that they can lose 30 pounds, we [Eric]: would expect that a person who weighs 30 fewer pounds would burn fewer calories throughout

[Eric]: the day. broadly speaking, everything else staying equal, smaller bodies ought to [Eric]: burn fewer calories on a daily basis, but we should be able to generally predict [Eric]: what the magnitude of that change should be. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: What we see in practice is that the reduction in energy expenditure during dieting [Eric]: is considerably larger than we would mathematically predict based on changes in

[Eric]: body mass alone. And what it essentially identifies is an adaptive mechanism. where [Eric]: the body reduces to some extent, you know, resting or basal energy expenditure, [Eric]: but to a larger extent, non-exercise activity energy expenditure. We're seeing that [Eric]: these are being reduced disproportionately in a way that basically applies a little bit [Eric]: of a break to [Alex Andorra]: Hm. [Eric]: the weight loss process. It just adds [Alex Andorra]: No.

[Eric]: some friction that makes it more challenging. And so of course, this is important to understand. [Eric]: I don't want to frame it as the most important constraint on weight loss because [Eric]: I don't believe that to be true, but it is an important element of understanding [Eric]: why weight loss is so challenging, which is of critical public health importance at [Eric]: a time where rates of overweight and obesity are higher than they've ever been in

[Eric]: a historical perspective. As we see that, they are quite high in contributing to... [Eric]: health challenges and even population level burdens with regards to keeping sustainable [Eric]: healthcare systems working effectively. It's very important to understand these challenges [Eric]: that are associated with weight loss so that we can become more effective in managing [Eric]: obesity and the health-related implications of obesity.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah, exactly. And to make that even more concrete, so that means that basically [Alex Andorra]: as you lose weight, you're going to decrease your energy expenditure. I mean, [Alex Andorra]: your body is going to decrease its energy expenditure, as you were saying, [Alex Andorra]: this could be simple physics, lower volume, so lower energy expenditure. [Alex Andorra]: But you're noticing with that model that basically people lose the people's

[Alex Andorra]: energy expenditure decreases more than what's predicted. And so concretely, [Alex Andorra]: that means if you still want to lose weight after that inflection point, [Alex Andorra]: you have to reduce even more the caloric intake because otherwise you're [Alex Andorra]: not going to lose weight anymore. Is that what that means concretely for people [Alex Andorra]: and what makes it even more challenging to lose weight?

[Eric]: Yes, it means that the dieting process will become more restrictive than it otherwise [Eric]: would be. And what's really to make matters worse, so we lose weight by creating [Eric]: an energy deficit, right? So we're consuming fewer calories than we're burning on a daily [Eric]: basis. So we introduce this deficit and being in a deficit alone causes a reduction

[Eric]: in energy expenditure. Our body can kind of tell with that short term shortfall [Eric]: of energy intake, oh, let's kind of slow down some expenditure, power down some [Eric]: processes that aren't totally essential. So being in a deficit causes a reduction in [Eric]: energy expenditure. And let's say that works and now you're losing weight. Now you

[Eric]: are a smaller person, which reduces energy expenditure. And then you add on top [Eric]: of those, this adaptive reduction in response to decreases in fat mass, and now [Eric]: you have three separate factors that are contributing to this reduction in energy [Eric]: expenditure, which means instead of dieting on, you know, perhaps what might feel [Eric]: like a comfortable diet of 1900 calories per day, you're pushing considerably lower

[Eric]: than that into caloric ranges that are much lower than you're comfortable with. And [Eric]: now you're, you know, ability to get through the day with a suitable energy level [Eric]: is threatened. Your hunger is considerably increased. It creates a lot of challenges in [Eric]: that regard. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, yeah. And this is really fascinating to read about. Also to live

[Alex Andorra]: is quite interesting. I've been myself on a cut lately, and that has been definitely [Alex Andorra]: at some point at the end of the cut was very challenging, these kinds of [Alex Andorra]: things where you're like, you have days where you like literally think about [Alex Andorra]: food all the time [Eric]: Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]: and you're like, you're like trying to. You know, optimize the macros and [Alex Andorra]: so on and like trying to find, I was literally food hunting in some of the [Alex Andorra]: shops here. I was like trying to find the best foods, like the most protein, [Alex Andorra]: the less fat or the less carbs. Which is kind of fun, but yeah. If you do it [Alex Andorra]: in a controlled way, that's interesting. But otherwise that definitely

[Alex Andorra]: puts a challenge on, on top of already a challenging situation. And what [Alex Andorra]: I found also really interesting is that. metabolic adaptation. I don't know [Alex Andorra]: if you still collect metabolic adaptation in that case, but that also kicks [Alex Andorra]: in these mechanisms that make sure your energy expenditure basically doesn't [Alex Andorra]: go too low and doesn't go too high. These they kick in also if you're in

[Alex Andorra]: a caloric surplus. So if you want to gain weight because you want to put [Alex Andorra]: on some muscles, for instance, so that would be the case for athletes, or [Alex Andorra]: for a lot of people in the general population, These mechanisms also kick in, [Alex Andorra]: right?

[Eric]: Yeah, yeah. And so when it comes to metabolic adaptation, I'm glad you frame the [Eric]: question that way because there is considerable debate or heterogeneity, whichever way you [Eric]: view it, in terms of the terminology. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: Some people talk about adaptive thermogenesis, which is [Alex Andorra]: Meh, yeah. [Eric]: specifically the reduction in energy expenditure that we've talked about up to this

[Eric]: point. But when I talk about metabolic adaptation, some people use that synonymously [Eric]: with adaptive thermogenesis. It's a very narrow scope of focus that looks just [Eric]: at energy expenditure fluctuations in response to weight loss, or conversely, perhaps [Eric]: weight gain. When I write about metabolic adaptation, I like to take a more holistic [Eric]: approach, and I talk [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: about not just energy expenditure, but the entire milieu of endocrine and even neuroendocrine [Eric]: changes. that [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: affect many body systems. So of course, energy expenditure goes down. That alone, honestly, [Eric]: is not that big of a deal. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: It's not helpful, but it's not catastrophic by any means. The larger changes that we see [Eric]: typically are just being in a deficit reduces expenditure and being smaller. So

[Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. Yeah. [Eric]: if it were only an energy expenditure problem, I don't think it would be so important. [Eric]: It matter, but to a lesser degree. But with metabolic adaptation, the way I like to [Eric]: talk about it holistically, we see reductions in sex hormones [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: as a response of this. I mean, the hypothalamus is coordinating this widespread set of consequences

[Eric]: across many different body systems. So reductions in sex hormones that can impact [Eric]: potentially body composition, potentially the reproductive system. These are things that [Eric]: impact quality of life. And then when we look at the neurophysiological changes related [Eric]: to hunger and appetite regulation, I think those are the most important adaptations [Eric]: that we see during weight loss [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: in terms of just recalibrating our hunger and desire to eat and the types of food choices [Eric]: that we're inclined to make. So you could set, you know... cut those up into individual [Eric]: components and study them all separately, but I don't think it makes sense to do so, [Eric]: which is why [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: when I write about metabolic adaptation, I think a very fair criticism is some people

[Eric]: might say, you've gone beyond the scope of metabolic adaptation. And my response would [Eric]: be, you have too narrow a scope for metabolic adaptation [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: because you really cannot uncouple these things from one another. So yeah, I definitely [Eric]: want to acknowledge that, metabolic adaptation the way I view it, not only is it [Eric]: very wide ranging across body systems, but it also does apply, like you were saying,

[Eric]: in two directions. So we see adaptations to underfeeding and weight loss, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: but we also tend to see adaptations to overfeeding and weight gain. So there's [Eric]: fascinating experiments where we bring people in, not I didn't do it, but when scientists [Eric]: bring people in. overfeed them intentionally to a considerable degree. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: And there are tremendous adaptation, adaptive mechanisms that lead to dramatic increases

[Eric]: in energy expenditure to maintain a relatively stable body weight. And what we [Eric]: see is that appetite goes through, I mean, just to the floor, just no appetite whatsoever [Eric]: when people are dramatically overfed intentionally. But [Alex Andorra]: Hmm. [Eric]: The really fascinating thing, the unfortunate thing, because I'm sure a lot of people are [Eric]: listening saying, no, your science is wrong. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: The variation between individuals is immense. And so they're even in these studies [Eric]: that are tightly controlled, we'll see some people defend a body weight quite effectively. [Eric]: Other [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: folks, you know, their body weight just changes quite readily, right? So there are [Eric]: a lot of folks who say, When I overfeed, I don't increase energy expenditure. My appetite [Eric]: doesn't drop. I just gain weight. And so [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: that observation is not at odds with the science. It's very much compatible with [Eric]: it. But what we do find is, you know, there is a lot of variation in people's adaptive [Eric]: mechanisms in both directions. So there are some folks who, when they do a weight loss [Eric]: diet, they just lose the weight and it goes fine. And [Alex Andorra]: Thanks for watching! [Eric]: other people will look at them and say, how is this possible? Like, you feel like you're

[Eric]: from a different planet. when you look at the [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: difference in responses. And that I think is another reason that it's so important [Eric]: to understand these, um, you know, metabolic adaptation in general is. I think first of [Eric]: all, there's the practical benefit of understanding what it is and what to do about [Eric]: it to facilitate, uh, folks who are trying to gain or lose weight, uh, to, to find

[Eric]: a healthier body weight range for them. But [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: also I think it, I think if you. interact and engage with this literature seriously and [Eric]: you do so with a very critical eye You're almost forced to kind of decouple obesity and [Eric]: weight gain from Some of these inaccurate and counterproductive assumptions that are [Eric]: really common in health care and really common in society you know a lot of people [Eric]: will look at obesity or weight gain and inherently mentally connect them to essentially

[Eric]: character flaws like gluttony or laziness. And I think if you look at this literature [Eric]: and you do so critically with an open mind, what you tend to see is there are so [Eric]: many factors impacting body weight regulation that appear to be innate. These inter-individual [Eric]: differences are immense. And [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: what you start to see is as someone who has... generally in my life had success

[Eric]: gaining and losing body weight very readily. When I was younger, I used to assume [Eric]: that there was, you know, oh, I'm so much tougher. I can push through these [Alex Andorra]: Thanks for watching! [Eric]: things that other people can't push you. That's not the case. As I've looked at [Eric]: the literature more, I find that I am just a better responder to some of these weight [Eric]: regulation interventions. You know, I [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: lose and gain weight intentionally. while encountering far less friction than other [Eric]: folks do. And so that was unfortunate. At first I thought I was really special and [Eric]: just had this ability to push through things. But I think metabolic adaptation, as [Eric]: we understand these barriers to weight loss that are very [Eric]: inconsistent from one person to another, it helps us look at things like obesity and

[Eric]: weight gain and weight management. in a much more empathetic way, in a much more [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: accurate way, you know, so I think that's really important. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, for sure. And you can still be special in the sense that you [Alex Andorra]: have a special genetic component. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: You chose your parents, right? Well done, Eric. So many questions.

[Alex Andorra]: So what you were talking about, basically, that there is a huge inter-subject [Alex Andorra]: viability. Yeah, I'm not. surprised about that. It's something I've noticed also [Alex Andorra]: in that literature. Hopefully, we'll have time to talk a bit more about that [Alex Andorra]: later on in the show from a more statistical point of view. Face dance, [Alex Andorra]: whispering. Something I'm wondering is, do you notice a correlation between the

[Alex Andorra]: people who can gain weight easily and then lose weight easily? And then you have [Alex Andorra]: basically you... that you would call responders in this case, and then people [Alex Andorra]: who respond way less. And so if you have trouble gaining weight, then also [Alex Andorra]: probably you will have trouble losing weight. That would make sense to me, [Alex Andorra]: but is that something that you also see in the data?

[Eric]: Yeah, so what we tend to see if we're looking specifically at physiological responses, [Eric]: so like changes in energy expenditure that we can kind of measure with physiological [Eric]: tools, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: if we look at that, then we can broadly define people or kind of categorize them into [Eric]: two major phenotypes. You know, thrifty versus spendthrift are the [Alex Andorra]: Hehe.

[Eric]: terms that are used. So there are some folks who if they're overfed. You know, they, [Eric]: they gain weight really easily, but then when they try to lose weight, they run [Eric]: into a lot of friction, right? [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: So they're kind of nudged toward these, um, you know, if overeating and then trying [Eric]: to diet, you know, they would readily gain weight and then kind of struggle to lose [Eric]: it. There are other [Alex Andorra]: Hmph.

[Eric]: folks who are, who are the inverse where, um, if they try to overfeed, it will be, uh, [Eric]: you know, we'll see a lot of those physiological. adaptive mechanisms that kind of keep them [Eric]: from or resist their ability to gain weight readily. But they don't seem to run [Eric]: into as much friction when dietary intake is reduced. And what's really fascinating is

[Eric]: you can kind of look at these over very short time scales. You can just do in a crossover [Eric]: study, you can look at overfeeding and underfeeding or even fasting responses over [Eric]: the course of just 24 hours each. And you [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: can kind of broadly categorize people and say, okay, if you, you know, had a huge [Eric]: increase in, um, energy expenditure when we did overfeeding, we can already start [Eric]: to make some inferences about, you know, the fact that, you know, a huge increase during [Eric]: overfeeding probably means that we're not going to see a lot of friction during underfeeding [Eric]: versus, you know, folks who, you know, when, when they overfeed, they just gain fat

[Eric]: mass, you know, the, uh, energy expenditure doesn't really move much. Um, You know, when [Eric]: they go into a fasting or underfeeding stage, we expect a pretty considerable amount [Eric]: of friction in the sense that energy expenditure will drop. So there there's kind [Eric]: of. It only seems fair in the context of bodybuilding, you know? [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: Um, so what [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: I mean by that is bodybuilders will go through phases where they really want to [Eric]: gain weight. And then when they really want to lose weight, you know, they want to [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: build all their muscle, gain a bunch of weight, lose fat. And so bodybuilders usually, [Eric]: you can kind of count on having one or the other. You know, you can say, oh, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah [Eric]: I can bulk up really well, but I struggle when I'm cutting. Or [Alex Andorra]: Hmm.

[Eric]: some people will say, you know, it's really challenging for me to gain weight and [Eric]: put on muscle, but when I want to lose fat, it usually goes pretty smoothly. So in [Eric]: bodybuilding, it seems fair. Outside of that world, I think most folks in the general [Eric]: population feel like it's very unfair and they want to be the person who can lose

[Eric]: weight easily and struggle to gain weight when intentionally overfeeding. But I did mention [Eric]: the caveat that I was speaking really about physiological responses there, because [Eric]: I think one other important factor that I've not seen really studied all together comprehensively [Eric]: very frequently is we've got that kind of regulation system of these physiological

[Eric]: parameters. But I also think that there is work to be done in the kind of neurophysiological [Eric]: regulation of appetite and desire to [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: eat. And I think part of that is reward responses to feeding and those kind of hedonic [Eric]: responses to [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: feeding. And I think for me, one of the reasons that I'm able to kind of do weight [Eric]: gain and weight loss relatively easily is that, you know, I think I probably do experience, [Eric]: I'm more of the thrifty phenotype, meaning that I can gain weight intentionally quite [Eric]: easily. I do have reductions in energy expenditure, pretty considerable ones when [Eric]: I diet. But I [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: think the way that I respond to food from a neurophysiological perspective, I'm [Eric]: just not as into it as most people. [Alex Andorra]: Mm. [Eric]: So I don't [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: run into the really tremendously challenging appetite and desire to eat challenges when [Eric]: I'm dieting. So my energy expenditure goes down plenty. It's just not that big of [Eric]: a deal. Because if I need to cut calories more, that doesn't feel based on my neurotransmitters

[Eric]: basically. like it's too great a sacrifice to make. So there are these competing systems [Eric]: going on that make things really quite fascinating.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, for sure. And I really love also that you're talking about [Alex Andorra]: the neurological aspect because that's something I've seen also is, yeah, first, [Alex Andorra]: one of the things like when you go on a fat loss diet and then go on a [Alex Andorra]: caloric surplus, you kind of have to have to change your mental thinking

[Alex Andorra]: about food. It's really weird. Whereas when you're losing fat, you have to [Alex Andorra]: be very... intuitive about the way you eat and being very aware of the society [Alex Andorra]: cues that you have and that actually often you can stop eating before you [Alex Andorra]: do. And being very aware of those stuff, eating very slowly and all those [Alex Andorra]: things like that where meditation helps and so on. And then when you want to

[Alex Andorra]: gain weight, you have to kind of throw all that out the window. And basically [Alex Andorra]: eat even though you're not hungry. Continue eating even though you're not hungry. [Alex Andorra]: It's really a mental shift. That's really weird. And also you have to change

[Alex Andorra]: your habits. And it's something I've really dove into a lot because basically [Alex Andorra]: how to build better habits and how to pair basically these incredible power [Alex Andorra]: that the brain has, which is creature of habits because these are shortcuts [Alex Andorra]: and it makes just like... life easier for the brain. Well, that can be a very [Alex Andorra]: bad thing if you have really bad habits, but then you can change those habits.

[Alex Andorra]: How do you change them for the better? An extremely good book that I found [Alex Andorra]: about that, I've read a lot of things about that, but the main one I would [Alex Andorra]: recommend for someone who's digging into that would be the one from Kathy [Alex Andorra]: Milkman, How to Change the Science of Going from Where You Are to Where You Wanna [Alex Andorra]: Go. This is a really good one. really good breakdown of the current literature.

[Alex Andorra]: And it helps you also pair, basically what we're talking about with, okay, [Alex Andorra]: how do I try to develop that into routines that help me? So developing cues, [Alex Andorra]: for instance, me, I'm really a coffee nerd and addict. So when I started [Alex Andorra]: going to the gym, well, trying to find a coffee shop that's on the way to [Alex Andorra]: the gym so that, and not having coffee at home, so that I have to get to the

[Alex Andorra]: coffee shop to get the coffee. And while the gym is just there, well, might [Alex Andorra]: as well get some training. And then after the gym, well, you get another coffee [Alex Andorra]: because it's a reward. And [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: then at some point, the brain does the stuff automatically. This is really [Alex Andorra]: a fascinating part also of that research. But I think that I think also we're [Alex Andorra]: just starting to explore.

[Eric]: Yeah, yeah. And I love the behavioral components because having worked with a lot [Eric]: of clients who have weight loss goals, it's so fascinating to see this fine line where [Eric]: an intuitive assumption is that you should make the most minor, tiniest, most feasible [Eric]: change as possible if you want to start reducing energy intake and losing weight. And

[Eric]: in many cases, that is true. But in some cases, individuals are so locked into [Eric]: habits and routines that it's almost harder to do the same routines and same kind [Eric]: of things and just make these little changes within that. Sometimes it is a lot [Eric]: easier to just completely restructure a day and just to say, let's create a completely

[Eric]: different series of habits, a different schedule, a different routine. Let's start [Eric]: from scratch and very intentionally bundle some of those things like you mentioned, [Eric]: where it's like, okay, yeah, we're going to... create this association, this coupling [Eric]: between gym time and coffee. And I know you want [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: your coffee, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: so you will get to the gym. Um, and I do those same kinds of things right now.

[Eric]: Like I, my favorite thing to kind of just, um, it's the least productive thing I [Eric]: do. It's anti-productive, but, uh, when I really just want to turn my brain off and [Eric]: hang out. I love football. I'll play like [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: a football video game. And my. Video game system where I play my football game is [Eric]: right in front of my treadmill. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: If I'm playing it, I'm walking. If I'm walking, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: I'm doing [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: something positive for my health. Just finding those ways to couple those things because [Eric]: I noticed my step count was too low. It's like, well, how do we make that work in [Eric]: a way that doesn't feel like a chore? We couple [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: walking with one of our favorite things to do that when we get a chance, we're going [Eric]: to do it.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah. And also that I find that helpful in the way that it also gets us out [Alex Andorra]: of the, most of the time, unhelpful mindset of, you know, no pain, no gain, that [Alex Andorra]: you have to just grind through. And if you're not, then that means you're weak, [Alex Andorra]: you have weak character in all those things we were talking about, you were [Alex Andorra]: talking about, before, [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: about weak gain and obesity.

[Eric]: And the weirdest thing though, like one of the, I almost, if I wasn't going to [Eric]: join, uh, Dr. Ponser's lab, I gave serious consideration to doing another PhD in the social [Eric]: sciences and, uh, you know, health psychology, because one of the weirdest things I find working [Eric]: with clients, you know, cause all the theory goes out the window when you're actually [Eric]: out in the field working with people. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: For most people, I fully agree, and based on the textbooks, I fully agree, you [Eric]: know, the no pain, no gain thing, forget about that, let's make things approachable, [Eric]: let's make them feasible. There is a certain percentage of the population where [Eric]: if they cannot link what they're doing to an internal narrative, that they are grinding, [Eric]: and they are doing [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: the hard stuff. Like, there's this entire narrative that... makes them excited to do [Eric]: it because it feels like it sucks. And [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: I want to understand better what that is and how we can sort the people with what [Eric]: I would consider a more typical average response, which is let's make it not suck. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah. [Eric]: I think most people like that. But I'm very intrigued by, you know, early in my coaching

[Eric]: career, I would try to fit people into that mold. And I found enough of these people [Eric]: that I said, we have to have at least two molds, where some [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: of these people do want to be grinding and they like the fact that it is hard. That's [Eric]: what excites them about it. And sometimes they wanna make it seem, to be totally honest, [Eric]: even harder than it is, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, [Eric]: which is [Alex Andorra]: yeah. [Eric]: very fascinating to me.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah, this is super interesting. I mean, like, and in a way, also, you could, [Alex Andorra]: like, I'm sure there are some tactics to make them think they are grinding, [Alex Andorra]: even though it's just a bit more friction, but it's actually no harm. Like, [Alex Andorra]: it makes me think about, do you know about the IKEA effect in this literature, [Alex Andorra]: which is where basically the idea is For instance, in France, you have these

[Alex Andorra]: all-made, pre-made crepes that you can buy in the supermarket. And when they [Alex Andorra]: started selling those, it didn't sell as well as they thought. And then they [Alex Andorra]: did all their studies and so on. And they understood that it was because [Alex Andorra]: everything was made and then people couldn't basically claim that it was

[Alex Andorra]: their own crepes that they were doing. And so they just removed the eggs. And [Alex Andorra]: now when you buy that, you have to put the flour on [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: all made and so on. And yet you just put the eggs and you bake it like [Alex Andorra]: you whisk them. And then cells went through the roof because basically like [Alex Andorra]: people feel that they are part of the process and that, you know, they, they

[Alex Andorra]: belong in the process. And so that's called the IKEA effect because like [Alex Andorra]: you go to IKEA, it's not done. You have to put your own furniture together. [Alex Andorra]: And so [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: basically, even though it's a really small thing, then that makes a derance [Alex Andorra]: to the program, which is of tremendous importance in sports science, much [Alex Andorra]: higher and in the end that makes the program more effective.

[Eric]: Yeah, I never heard it framed as the Ikea effect, but I heard that same kind of [Eric]: story about cake mixes in the United States where they [Alex Andorra]: Exactly. [Eric]: said, okay, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: you got to put the egg in. And that does make sense. And sometimes, you know, I'll [Eric]: even take it a step further and have clients, you know, design a little part of [Eric]: their program themselves that I set enough constraints that whether they pick, [Eric]: you know, red or blue. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: it's going to be equally efficacious, right? So there's [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: nothing at stake here, but it does increase that, um, that feeling of ownership and kind [Eric]: of having that autonomy and self-efficacy to really make an imprint on what we're doing. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, yeah. And yeah, I'm loving all that discussion and like I want [Alex Andorra]: to dive into more stats, but I really love it. So just to continue a bit [Alex Andorra]: on that and on the grinding part that you talked about, also to me that

[Alex Andorra]: resonates with a lot of stoicism. I'm really interested in stoic philosophy. [Alex Andorra]: And so like you see a lot of that where basically the idea One of the ideas [Alex Andorra]: and principles of stoic philosophy is sometimes make you a bit more uncomfortable [Alex Andorra]: than you need to be, because that way it makes you more resilient in a way,

[Alex Andorra]: and that shows you that you can do it basically if you have to. For instance, [Alex Andorra]: when it's chilly outside, well, get out with one layer less than you would [Alex Andorra]: be comfortable. And actually, that makes you a more stronger and resilient [Alex Andorra]: person. And I really love that. that part of the stoic philosophy. I put a [Alex Andorra]: link to the one of the best books about that I've read, which is called

[Alex Andorra]: the stoic challenge by William B Irvine, really, really good book. I'll put [Alex Andorra]: that in the show notes. And about the, like the pleasure that comes from [Alex Andorra]: pain makes me think about another book I read recently, which is called the sweet [Alex Andorra]: spot, the pleasures of suffering and the search for meaning by Paul Bloom. And [Alex Andorra]: yeah, it's a bit about what you talked about where basically for some people

[Alex Andorra]: and for some endeavors, the suffering is part of the experience. And if [Alex Andorra]: you're not suffering at least a bit, then for some people that is not worth [Alex Andorra]: it. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, really, really fascinating. So before we dive a bit more into the statistics [Alex Andorra]: side of things, I'm wondering about, to close up on metabolic adaptation,

[Alex Andorra]: what are the current frontier regarding that field? Basically, what are the [Alex Andorra]: questions that you and the people who are studying that, what are the questions [Alex Andorra]: you really want to know the answer to these days? [Eric]: I mean, there are a few, some of them are boring. They're about methods. So, unless

[Eric]: you're researching in the area, you don't care. But one of the things that's really [Eric]: challenging with this area is that [Eric]: when we predict changes in energy expenditure, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: we typically have to use fat-free mass as one of the main predictors. But [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: when you look at fat-free mass, you have tissues with very different energy expenditure.

[Eric]: amounts, you know, if you look at the rate of energy expenditure in the kidney versus [Eric]: the liver versus the heart versus muscle tissue, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: you can't just say it's all the same per kilogram. And so that one area of research [Eric]: is how much organ mass is lost during dieting and is it possible that is explaining [Eric]: at least some of this reduction in energy expenditure that seems disproportionate. So [Eric]: that's an [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: active area of discussion. Some of the more practical questions, you know. Is there [Eric]: anything that we can do feasibly [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: to attenuate or mitigate these changes in terms of metabolic adaptation? Do we essentially [Eric]: reach an equilibrium after we've maintained our weight loss for some amount of time? And [Eric]: if so, how much? So [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: far we've got longitudinal studies up to six years, I think, of follow-up where we

[Eric]: say, yeah, it doesn't really look like there's much changing here. It looks like it's [Eric]: a fairly persistent thing. So that's another open question that is always top of [Eric]: mind. And then the one that interests me the most is how do we... [Eric]: How do we put together a unified model that includes the constrained energy expenditure [Eric]: model and like exercise energy compensation [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: and metabolic adaptation at the same time? What [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: I mean by that is we know that as people are dieting, restricting energy intake to lose [Eric]: weight, metabolic adaptation will reduce their energy expenditure. But we also know [Eric]: that if people do extremely large amounts of exercise... we often see an attenuation [Eric]: of resting metabolic rate. And so the question is, most interventions will include

[Eric]: energy restriction and extra exercise. So how do we kind of parse those two things [Eric]: that are almost certainly happening simultaneously? And one hunch that I have that [Eric]: I'd like to explore in upcoming years is, I personally think that Exercise energy [Eric]: compensation is greatest when we're in a caloric deficit. So when we are under [Eric]: eating relative to [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: our energy expenditure.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: So I expect that in programs that involve weight loss and dietary restriction, or I mean [Eric]: exercise and dietary restriction for weight loss, we are seeing not just an additive [Eric]: effect of the two things, but perhaps even kind of an amplification of that effect [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: because [Eric]: exercise energy compensation in line with the constrained expenditure model, it [Eric]: does seem to vary based on the energy status of the individual, whether they're in [Eric]: neutral, positive, or negative energy balance. So that's a frontier that I think [Eric]: is really important to explore.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah. And that, that's a really fascinating one. I found, um, like from a statistician's [Alex Andorra]: point of view, basically, like, like everything we're talking about since the [Alex Andorra]: beginning makes me think like I have stuff in my head, like interaction effects

[Alex Andorra]: all over the place, basically. That's what you just talked about, like interaction [Alex Andorra]: between dietary restriction and, um, and then, um, the exercise compensation, [Alex Andorra]: um, and, and also like, I just have you know, logistic and logit curves in [Alex Andorra]: my head and logarithmic curves, basically where it's a lot of nonlinear effects [Alex Andorra]: combined to interactions, which make everything much more complicated, at least

[Alex Andorra]: for a homo sapiens, normal homo sapiens brain. I'm guessing if you put that [Alex Andorra]: in a model in the computer, that will make much more sense, of course, [Alex Andorra]: but that's why we're doing that, right? But... Yeah, and actually, energy compensation [Alex Andorra]: is something you also worked on. And I really find that super interesting.

[Alex Andorra]: So to try and make that more concrete for people, that would mean that, [Alex Andorra]: and that makes weight loss even more complicated if I understand correctly. [Alex Andorra]: Because that means that basically you're trying to lose weight and mainly lose [Alex Andorra]: fat. So you're going to have a deficit, calorie deficit. And on top of that, [Alex Andorra]: you're going to add exercise, most of the time cardio. And let's say you

[Alex Andorra]: go for a run and you expect to lose 100 calories from that run. Basically [Alex Andorra]: what energy compensation coupled to calorie deficit means is that, well, at [Alex Andorra]: the beginning of the weight loss, maybe you're going to lose 100 calories, [Alex Andorra]: but then the bigger the deficit, the bigger the energy compensation. And so

[Alex Andorra]: that means that let's say that your body compensates. So maybe I'm missing [Alex Andorra]: the sign here, but if the body compensates 80% of your exercise, that means [Alex Andorra]: you're only gonna lose 20 calories from that exercise bout instead of losing 100, [Alex Andorra]: which makes weight loss even more challenging. And in a way that makes sense,

[Alex Andorra]: right? Because if your body thinks you're beginning to starve, well then [Alex Andorra]: it's starting to put all those barriers so that you don't die. [Eric]: Right. [Alex Andorra]: So yeah, had I summed up that thing well? And yeah, basically, can you talk [Alex Andorra]: a bit about that energy compensation and how that relates to what you're studying?

[Eric]: Yeah, absolutely. So energy compensation really is the key factor underlying the constrained [Eric]: total energy expenditure hypothesis, meaning [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: right now our best estimate is that if all we know about someone is just the bare, [Eric]: the most simplistic information, which is that I'm a person, I'm a human being, and [Eric]: I'm going to do an extra 100 calories worth of exercise per day. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: Our best estimate based on that minimal information would be that their total daily [Eric]: energy expenditure will only go up by about 70 calories [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: per day instead of 100, because 30% of that will be compensated for by reducing [Eric]: resting factors of metabolism, trying to offset some of that energy cost. But we [Eric]: really need to do a lot more work to unravel. what makes a person compensate more [Eric]: or less. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: And so for example, if we look at the energy expenditure of competitive athletes [Eric]: who are intentionally eating a lot to try to replace their calories, we do see that [Eric]: their energy expenditure is considerably higher than a sedentary person who's weight [Eric]: stable. So it's not to say that we cannot change our total daily energy expenditure at

[Eric]: all. But there is certainly some degree of compensation that occurs and my suspicion [Eric]: is that it is largely, the magnitude of compensation is largely dictated, not exclusively, [Eric]: but largely by energy intake. And I expect [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: that, you know, when we're in a situation, I mean, we're seeing, you know, if we look [Eric]: in a vacuum, let's say you're not exercising, you're just reducing calories to lose weight.

[Eric]: You're gonna get extra friction from metabolic adaptation, right? [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: We know [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: that to be true. And let's say in a vacuum looking elsewhere, you're not doing [Eric]: any energy restriction necessarily, but you're exercising. Well, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: you know, there is gonna be probably some degree of compensation where you're, if [Eric]: the goal was to lose weight just by doing exercise, you're not gonna lose as much

[Eric]: as you thought because some of that is gonna be compensated for. Now, when we put [Eric]: those two together, In light of observations that compensation seems to be greatest when [Eric]: energy intake is, you know, when there's a caloric deficit or negative energy balance, [Eric]: we don't just see, I would expect, I don't expect that we would see just an additive

[Eric]: combined effect. I think we might see something that's more kind of synergistic in [Eric]: a way that the two kind of amplify each other in the context of a weight loss program [Eric]: involving diet and exercise. So all of that is to say, yeah, when you're doing [Eric]: a holistic weight loss program with diet and exercise, a lot of folks say, why [Eric]: does this feel so hard? And the answer is there's a lot of friction to be encountered [Eric]: along the way.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah. And also it makes more sense that these kicks in more in a deficit, [Alex Andorra]: a caloric deficit than a caloric surplus, right? Because then if you're in a [Alex Andorra]: caloric surplus, why would the body try to compensate for the extra, extra [Alex Andorra]: bout of exercise that you're enjoying? [Eric]: Yeah, yeah, the one exception though, the one exception that I would say is, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: I mean, of course, from an evolutionary perspective, when we're looking at starvation [Eric]: as the limiting factor, that all makes [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: sense. And we'd say, yeah, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: in a caloric deficit, you see a lot of compensation, otherwise maybe not so much, [Eric]: but they've done some really fascinating work in athletes who are just spending tremendous [Eric]: amounts of energy on exercise. And [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: I think that over the long term, there are some upper boundary constraints that are [Eric]: limited just by the amount of energy that we can feasibly extract from our diet [Eric]: on a daily basis. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, yeah. [Eric]: So I think they were working with like really competitive cyclists doing tremendously [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: arduous races [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: and finding that like, you know, there are some constraints on those absolute upper [Eric]: boundaries but those are constraints that most of us mortals are never gonna encounter, [Eric]: right? [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: yeah, yeah. Yeah, it feels a bit like you only feel the effects of relativity [Alex Andorra]: when you go really fast. Well, it feels a bit like what you're talking about [Alex Andorra]: for these kind of like, yeah, really, really [Eric]: Yeah.

[Alex Andorra]: hard endurance athletes. Yeah. I know we're running a bit long here. Are you [Alex Andorra]: okay to continue a bit more or do you have a [Eric]: Sure. [Alex Andorra]: hard stop? [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: Yeah, I'm [Alex Andorra]: Okay. [Eric]: good. [Alex Andorra]: Awesome. Yeah. Thanks. Yeah, because I'm having too much fun. So I want [Eric]: Yeah, [Alex Andorra]: to continue.

[Eric]: it's always good if it runs long and you're right now saving me from getting back [Eric]: into writing, so I'll talk forever. [Alex Andorra]: Well, I'm happy to do it. So yeah, let's turn a bit more to the statistical [Alex Andorra]: side of things here, because of course, you're using statistical models [Alex Andorra]: for all this work to make sense of it. So I'm wondering what are the main modeling [Alex Andorra]: challenges that your field is facing?

[Eric]: Yeah. You know, when I first got into the field, I was [Eric]: coaching a special Olympics powerlifting team and the head coach was, he's a dear friend

[Eric]: of mine and he had been doing research for decades before I was born. I mean, he was [Eric]: probably about 70 years old when we met and he was a statistician and so he would [Eric]: work with a lot of different fields and I remember expressing frustration to him [Eric]: about the way statistics were approached in my field, and he kind of calmed me down

[Eric]: about it. He said, listen, different fields grow up at different rates, and the [Eric]: more mature a field gets, the more rigorous its science gets, the more it starts to embrace [Eric]: more nuanced statistical approaches, and people get better at it. It comes down, [Eric]: it starts with the demand for rigor in... know, the publication process, then it [Eric]: trickles down into the training that's received for folks that are coming up through

[Eric]: the field. And so I think my field right now is at a really cool inflection point in [Eric]: its growth where there are a lot of people who are really lifting the tide for [Eric]: statistical analyses in exercise and sports science. So that's good. I'm happy to [Eric]: see that. And I don't want to be a hypocrite. It's not like I was, you know, a first year [Eric]: master's student and I had this like innate expertise in statistics and said, Oh,

[Eric]: I'll do it all perfectly. And everyone else is dumb. I knew that it should be done [Eric]: better, but of course I wasn't capable of doing it. And part of my frustration was [Eric]: I want to get trained in the good stuff and no [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: one seems to know the good stuff around here. You know what I mean? Um, and who knows [Eric]: if I would have even picked it up if I was exposed to that training, you know, I'm

[Eric]: not, I'm not, uh, not claiming that expertise before developing it. So there are [Eric]: many challenges in our field and we're encountering them more as we kind of go through [Eric]: this growth process, to be honest. I think aside from the fact that our field has [Eric]: not prioritized statistic previously, so the training reflects that in a lot of programs, [Eric]: I think that's a big challenge. It's just that people are not being exposed to...

[Eric]: really nuanced in-depth statistical training. And so a field, we got to start doing [Eric]: more of that training in the master's and PhD programs. But more to the point of [Eric]: probably what you were getting at, I think we have two main challenges in exercise [Eric]: and sports science. Number one, sample size. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: I think a lot of folks in other fields, they think we work with small samples because

[Eric]: we're dumb. and we don't get it. It's like, why don't you do more? And it's like, [Eric]: well, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: if you're doing these really, really resource intensive study protocols, you'll [Eric]: get it in both directions. If you do exercise protocols that can be feasibly scaled [Eric]: to large samples, people will say that your measurements are so imprecise as to be [Eric]: worthless. And they'll say, you can't even make the inferences you're trying to make

[Eric]: because you use the cheap measurement. that you could actually use 400, 500 participants [Eric]: in the study. So you get a lot of pushback if you go the route of saying, well, let's [Eric]: do the less intensive measurement protocols that are more affordable and more feasible

[Eric]: and get a bigger sample. On the other end, if you want to do the really nuanced measurements, [Eric]: the time cost, the labor cost, the financial cost, it starts to get so... remarkably large [Eric]: that the idea of bringing in more than about 22 people, it starts to become completely [Eric]: infeasible. And so of course, money would help. Money tends to help a lot of things [Eric]: in the research world. So if people wanted to dump all their money into these studies,

[Eric]: then sure, we could take six years and run 300 people through the protocol. But right [Eric]: now, a big constraint on our statistical development and one that I think is fair, like... [Eric]: I could imagine the chair of a department who's been studying, doing research since I [Eric]: was not even born yet, 30 years before I was born, they could have been doing research. [Eric]: They would look at me and say, all right, hotshot, you think you know it all, but go

[Eric]: learn all your stats. Why doesn't our department teach all this nuanced stuff? Because [Eric]: you can't even do it. Some of this, the really... nuanced statistical methodology, [Eric]: especially in the frequentist world, you need such large sample sizes to even really

[Eric]: observe the benefit of doing a lot of those things. So sample size is a limiting [Eric]: factor that I think unfortunately is also holding us back from embracing some of [Eric]: these statistical approaches because people are saying, well, I could train you [Eric]: on that, but what are you going to do with it? Your [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: biggest sample is 30 people. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: So... Yeah, that's definitely, I would say, a big challenge. And then another challenge [Eric]: is a lot of the questions we explore have a lot of inter-individual variation or

[Eric]: at least we expect them to based on biological and physiological theory. And it's [Eric]: really challenging for us to try to really parse out what is a genuine difference [Eric]: between individuals versus... measurement error and all the other sources of error and [Eric]: randomness that find their way into real world data, especially for metrics that

[Eric]: change day to day. And I mean, if I measure some of these parameters, it's going [Eric]: to be different at 8 a.m. than it is at 11 a.m. for the same person on the same [Eric]: day. So there's [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, [Eric]: so much [Alex Andorra]: yeah. [Eric]: noise and trying to get through that and say, well, What is, how do we attribute [Eric]: this noise to all these various components that can create noisiness in this dataset? [Eric]: It can be really challenging.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah, I mean, this is very interesting because this is what I've also noticed reading [Alex Andorra]: some of the literature that we're talking about. And that's also why I [Alex Andorra]: thought it was super interesting to have you on the show. Because unfortunately [Alex Andorra]: for now, I cannot really help with the money, [Eric]: Hehehe

[Alex Andorra]: but I can help with the statistics and I'm pretty sure what you... Just talked [Alex Andorra]: about a lot of listeners have started thinking, patient stats, dude, patient [Alex Andorra]: stats. Because it helps for low sample size, it's perfect for that. And [Alex Andorra]: also the inter-subject viability, and we're going to talk a bit about that. Teaser [Alex Andorra]: for listeners, there is a really cool paper we're going to talk about, I mean

[Alex Andorra]: mention, from someone you know very well. Yeah, so basically that would be [Alex Andorra]: my question. So you told me you know a bit about Bayesian stats. I mean, [Alex Andorra]: you've heard of it, but that it's still not much used for now in your field, [Alex Andorra]: am I correct? [Eric]: It is starting to get used more. And I feel that it's been interesting because I [Eric]: did my graduate research between 2013 and 2018. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: And I actually expressed an interest in diving deep into Bayesian statistics. And [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: due to various circumstances, just didn't really get the opportunity to sink my teeth [Eric]: into it. And one of the things that makes it challenging is As we know as people [Eric]: who's published science, you know, there's a great responsibility You you can't just willy-nilly [Eric]: say I'm gonna try this new thing and I don't really know how to check if I did it

[Eric]: Right, but whatever I'll try it and I'll just publish it. It's you don't really [Eric]: want to do that, right? I mean, it's kind of a you want to make sure you're doing [Eric]: it, right? And you want to make sure that you are kind of learning with the right [Eric]: resources or under the right people to kind of uh, help you transition into that

[Eric]: new skill set. And so I remember approaching my stats professor, uh, during my PhD and saying, [Eric]: Hey, I want to get into this class over in the biostats department, but I think I need, [Eric]: uh, like a recommendation to say that, you know, that I should do it. And he was like, [Eric]: dude, that's, that's like the hardest class in like a PhD level biostats program. [Eric]: I don't think you really [Alex Andorra]: Nice. Ha [Eric]: want [Alex Andorra]: ha ha.

[Eric]: to do that. Like he was like, I like just don't. And I was like, okay, I understand [Eric]: that. Like, cause I was looking for an introductory kind of, you know, get your [Eric]: feet wet in Bayesian statistics. And he was like, dog, that's you are going to hate [Eric]: your life and they're going to be like, who the hell told you, you could come here. [Eric]: So, uh, cause you know, Hey, I know, I know a thing or two, but I'm not, I don't

[Eric]: have a PhD in biostats. Right. Um, and it's really important to, to kind of. understand [Eric]: and adhere to your own limitations as an applied scientist who uses statistics, but [Eric]: is not a statistician. So I tried that and didn't really work out. I also pitched [Eric]: at one idea, at one point, the idea of doing an independent study in a particular [Eric]: statistical approach that was popular in sports science. This was when I was like

[Eric]: a, I think a master student. And my advisor said, yeah, don't do that. And I was [Eric]: kind of bummed at the time, boy, was she right. because the approach that all the [Eric]: smart folks were using that I wanted to sink my teeth into, it was called magnitude-based

[Eric]: inferences. And it was something that was being used in our field, and it was kind [Eric]: of framed on the surface as like a mixture between frequentist statistics and Bayesian [Eric]: statistics, this kind of hybrid approach that allowed us to make better inferences about [Eric]: small sample size research while still staying within the frequentist framework within

[Eric]: which we're most comfortable. Well, in the last year or two, the last couple of [Eric]: years, there's been some papers where a statistician heard that we were doing that [Eric]: and they dug around and they're like, wait, what have you guys been doing? And so [Alex Andorra]: Hehehe [Eric]: they looked into it and they're like, yeah, it's better for small sample sizes because [Eric]: your type one error rate is like 20%. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: You're just committing tremendous statistical errors. and just not doing rigorous analyses [Eric]: with this approach. So the statistical properties of this approach just completely [Eric]: failed and then people stopped doing it. So all of that is to say, I tried to kind [Eric]: of poke and prod at it when I was a grad student, but our field just wasn't really [Eric]: embracing it yet. But in the last couple of years, I'm seeing more and more papers in

[Eric]: our field that use Bayesian statistics. And to be totally honest, the thing that's [Eric]: really changed it, in my view is a JASP software, [Alex Andorra]: Uh-huh. [Eric]: having a point and click user [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: interface that opens up Bayesian statistics in a way that feels a lot more accessible to [Eric]: folks who don't have a coding background. Cause a lot of folks [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: in my field, they do not like any code based stat softwares. They like SPSS. And [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: once they heard JASP was on the menu, they said, okay, fine, I'll try it. [Alex Andorra]: Hmm. [Eric]: But yeah, so all of that is to say I've been aware of it and quite interested in it [Eric]: for a while. When I was doing more of my own stats on studies, I had an interest

[Eric]: but not enough proficiency to feel comfortable just jumping into it. And yeah, now that I'm [Eric]: back in the research game, I think perhaps I'll have better opportunities to finally do [Eric]: that. [Alex Andorra]: Hmm. Yeah, that's, that's super interesting. Um, thanks for that. Yeah. Like [Alex Andorra]: lay of the, lay of the ground. Um, [Eric]: A little history lesson and yeah.

[Alex Andorra]: yeah, I love that. Um, and for sure, like I think, and that's something that's [Alex Andorra]: really, I see that as something really positive, uh, for a long time, the main [Alex Andorra]: barrier to using patient sense was not even that. How do we train people? [Alex Andorra]: Uh, how do we teach them? How do you make that easy to use for them? So like, [Alex Andorra]: for instance, with software like, like JASP. But how do you compute that?

[Alex Andorra]: Basically it was compute power, the main problem, because that integral on [Alex Andorra]: the denominator is just the devil. So you have to use approximation methods [Alex Andorra]: and that was very hard. Now we have extremely powerful computers, which

[Alex Andorra]: can do that in just a few seconds. So that... opened a lot of doors basically [Alex Andorra]: for people who don't know about these stuff to then use the software that nerdy [Alex Andorra]: stat people like us develop to actually use patient stat in their analysis [Alex Andorra]: and that's really cool because now I think the barrier to entry has shifted [Alex Andorra]: from a computer power issue to a basically manpower issue. Okay. Who do

[Alex Andorra]: I find? to be my mentor, which book should I read, which video should I look [Alex Andorra]: at, which package should I look at. So that's really cool. There is a variety [Alex Andorra]: of packages to do it in Python, mainly of course in my, well, PIMC a lot. BAMBEE [Alex Andorra]: is extremely useful because it allows you to do basically PIMC models, [Alex Andorra]: but instead of writing completely the model, you use FORMULA. Is that how you

[Alex Andorra]: say that? It's used in R a lot. So formula syntax, yes, formula syntax. In [Alex Andorra]: R, I know you use R a lot. So I [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: would recommend looking at BRMS, which is extremely good, very powerful, based [Alex Andorra]: on Stan, which is state of the art algorithms below that. And we have had [Alex Andorra]: Paul Buechner, the founder, I mean, the main developer of B. the creator

[Alex Andorra]: of BRMS on the podcast. I will link that in the show notes. And also, since [Alex Andorra]: you mentioned JASP, we had EJ Wagenmarkers on the podcast, episode 61, for [Alex Andorra]: people who want to listen to that. That was a really interesting one, because [Alex Andorra]: EJ is one of the main persons developing and coordinating the development [Alex Andorra]: of JASP. And actually, that episode was really interesting because EJ is...

[Alex Andorra]: really versed into psychology research. And basically, I remember I called [Alex Andorra]: that episode, why we still use non-Vision methods. That's very EJ spirit. [Alex Andorra]: So it's an interesting listen. I'll link that in the show notes, too. So yeah, [Alex Andorra]: to me, that's a really good sign that now this is basically the main thing. [Alex Andorra]: And so yeah, in the R world, I would say BRMS is one of the main things

[Alex Andorra]: to look at. Also, the book and video series on YouTube by Richard McAlrath [Alex Andorra]: called Statistical Rethinking. Extremely good, very pedagogical. And he's [Alex Andorra]: actually teaching in Dresden at the Max Planck Institute, so evolutionary [Alex Andorra]: anthropology. And there is a lot of examples of what that, so that should [Alex Andorra]: be familiar to you. I send that to you because it's a really extremely good [Alex Andorra]: resource.

[Eric]: Yeah, that'd be great. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. And I mean, so to, and then to narrow down on what patient stats can [Alex Andorra]: do here. Yeah, I do think that the low sample size thing and also the intersubject [Alex Andorra]: variability is tremendously important. And the good thing is that it comes [Alex Andorra]: out of the box in the patient framework, because, well, you have the priors

[Alex Andorra]: basically. And on that note, I. read recently one of the new papers by Andrew [Alex Andorra]: Gelman, which people are familiar with, of course, Jessica Holman and Lauren [Alex Andorra]: Kennedy. I'll post that into the show notes and I sent it to you, Eric, [Alex Andorra]: because I found it really interesting because basically the idea... So you know the [Alex Andorra]: correlation

[Alex Andorra]: So basically a lot of people are familiar with it. Basically, the same correlation [Alex Andorra]: number can be explained by a lot of different data points patterns. And [Alex Andorra]: here, what they do in the paper is that they develop causal quartets, where [Alex Andorra]: they basically show that the same average treatment effect can be explained [Alex Andorra]: by a variety of different causal patterns. where you would have completely different

[Alex Andorra]: data set and data points. But if you just look at the average treatment effect, [Alex Andorra]: you would think that these are the same data points in a way. And it's the [Alex Andorra]: same experiment, even though it's absolutely not and it's explained by different [Alex Andorra]: causal factors. So I'm aware I'm explaining that in a podcast. But [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: this is very, actually I can, oh, I'm forgetting, but I can. share my screen

[Alex Andorra]: here now. And here, I'm going to do that for people who are watching on YouTube. [Alex Andorra]: Going to share my screen here. And here, I have the paper. And at some point [Alex Andorra]: in the paper, you have these kind of quartets here, for instance, where [Alex Andorra]: these plots are basically explaining the same data. Can you see my screen? [Eric]: It's loading. [Alex Andorra]: Ah, it's loading. Okay. So maybe that doesn't work, [Eric]: But I did my homework.

[Alex Andorra]: but. [Eric]: I looked at the paper so I know what you're referring to. Ah, there it is, [Alex Andorra]: Okay, [Eric]: I see [Alex Andorra]: cool. [Eric]: it now. [Alex Andorra]: Oh, yeah, there it is. Yeah. So basically, you've seen that, right? Like [Alex Andorra]: basically, [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: you have four graphs showing different patterns of causal effect, but the [Alex Andorra]: four graphs have the same average effect of 0.1. And so I don't know, yeah, what

[Alex Andorra]: did you think about that paper? Is that something that you think is really [Alex Andorra]: different for your field? Is that something that you've seen also in your [Alex Andorra]: field? [Eric]: Well, yeah, I mean, you know, I think one of the big challenges that we have in our [Eric]: field being kind of attached to the frequentist approach to statistics is that [Eric]: we really don't like to mess with the nuances of distributions. You know, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: we like to condense a lot of things down to, you know, average observed effect [Eric]: with a you know, with a symmetrical confidence interval around it. And we like [Eric]: to cross our fingers and hope that all relationships are linear when we're looking [Eric]: at continuous [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: data. Um, even though we know deep down in our heart that they're, they're probably [Eric]: not. Right. So like, you know, we run into so many things, especially in sports science,

[Eric]: where we talk about, um, you know, how much training volume should you do? Of course [Eric]: we know that there's going to be at least a ceiling effect where you reach just [Eric]: completely diminishing returns. And if nothing, I mean, if not a ceiling effect, [Eric]: more likely we start to see that too much volume. For a while it's more productive [Eric]: and then eventually becomes counterproductive as you exhaust your ability to actually effectively

[Eric]: recover from that training stimulus. And so, if you had a dollar for every paper [Eric]: that assumes a linear relationship between training volume and the resulting. training

[Eric]: adaptations, you'd be quite wealthy. And so, yeah, I think there's tremendous benefit [Eric]: in saying, not just, I think there's benefit in branching out beyond this simplistic [Eric]: idea of assuming that all of these causal effects we see in the literature can be boiled [Eric]: down to, like I said, an average effect with a symmetrical confidence interval or a

[Eric]: perfectly linear relationship. You know, plus of course the, you know, the error term [Eric]: in the model, but, um, yeah, I thought this was a really fantastic paper and a point [Eric]: that goes, uh, yeah, it doesn't get discussed as much as it ought to, uh, you know, [Eric]: how these different distributions lead to, uh, tremendously different applications, [Eric]: you know, cause I mean, if you're in exercise and sports science, um, you're an

[Eric]: applied researcher almost by default. You know, there's not, not a lot of, not a [Eric]: tremendous amount of basic science going on. And so usually the question is, okay, you [Eric]: found this, you answered this question, you addressed this hypothesis. Now what do [Eric]: we do with it? How does it turn into an intervention for a healthy person or a clinical

[Eric]: population or a person in a particular set of circumstances? And the actual pattern [Eric]: of data becomes quite important. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. And so thanks. Thanks a lot for taking a look at that paper. That's [Alex Andorra]: pretty cool. And yeah, to echo what you were saying. Also, I encourage people [Alex Andorra]: to read it. The paper is really easy to read. It's an easy read. It's not a

[Alex Andorra]: lot of math. Don't worry. It's a lot of graphs actually. And they even developed [Alex Andorra]: an R package called causal quartets to dig a bit into that. super interesting read [Alex Andorra]: and yes, something to really keep in mind each time you see that kind of [Alex Andorra]: paper only talking about causal average causal effects, treatment effects, [Alex Andorra]: especially in the social sciences, as you were as you were saying, Eric, where

[Alex Andorra]: variability is extremely big between subjects. And I mean, there is a part [Alex Andorra]: in the paper that was it's just it's just extremely funny to me where They

[Alex Andorra]: call here, they talk about like basically, um, citing from the paper. They [Alex Andorra]: cite a paper who performed two small survey and they found that women were [Alex Andorra]: three times as likely to wear red or pink during certain days of their monthly [Alex Andorra]: cycle and that the result achieved conventional levels of statistical significance, [Alex Andorra]: but then like you dig into that and it's like mainly explained by. by viability

[Alex Andorra]: between people. Because, well, some people wear a lot of red. Some people [Alex Andorra]: don't wear red at all. And that viability is going to be huge. But then you [Alex Andorra]: get this kind of average treatment effect, and that doesn't work at all. So that [Alex Andorra]: was a funny part of the paper. And so this is a very pedagogical paper. I [Alex Andorra]: encourage people to dig into it. Because, yeah, it's something to keep in

[Alex Andorra]: mind. And As you were saying, that's really something I notice also when [Alex Andorra]: I teach people patient stats, especially when they come from the classic [Alex Andorra]: ML side. Once they get the posterior distributions out of the model, [Eric]: you [Alex Andorra]: the question is always, how do I summarize that? I'm like, no, that breaks [Alex Andorra]: my heart always, you know, because I'm like, you've worked so hard to get that

[Alex Andorra]: posterior distribution. It's not easy to get a whole posterior distribution [Alex Andorra]: sometimes. And now that you have that, you want to throw away all that [Alex Andorra]: information just to get a point estimate. That's a bit of a shame. So try basically [Alex Andorra]: to throw away information as late as possible, basically. And try to get [Alex Andorra]: used to the distributions. I know that ant dimension. I know our brain is

[Alex Andorra]: not good for more than three dimensions. But basically, the idea is not [Alex Andorra]: throwing information away, especially when it's hard to come by. and try to throw [Alex Andorra]: it away as late as possible. And if you really, really have... [Eric]: Yeah, I was smiling. You mentioned that the human brain doesn't like to work in more

[Eric]: than three dimensions. And I, I over, you know, I was scrolling through Twitter and [Eric]: I saw someone who had created a, uh, an R package, uh, for like power and sample [Eric]: size calculations. And someone had asked them, you know, how come you didn't make it

[Eric]: easier to use this, um, this R package to, to estimate. the sample size requirements [Eric]: for a four-way interaction and he said well if you're able to accurately predict The [Eric]: effect size of a four-way interaction in a social science experiment Then you're [Eric]: way smarter than me. So you should be right in the program [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, yeah, [Eric]: I Thought [Alex Andorra]: yeah.

[Eric]: that was really very true. Yeah, once you're getting into the fourth dimension Our [Eric]: brains just kind of implode or at least mine does [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, no, I mean, and also like four-way interaction. I would say [Alex Andorra]: that's like in the paper, they really argue for thinking more about nonlinear [Alex Andorra]: effect. And so that means interactions. But then, yeah, the other caveat you should

[Alex Andorra]: have, then students get really excited about that. And then you're like, oh, [Alex Andorra]: wait, like five-way interactions? I'm not sure you can even interpret that if [Alex Andorra]: that exists. So it's like, just calm down. It also happens a lot with hierarchical [Alex Andorra]: models, because hierarchical models are really easy, I would say, in the

[Alex Andorra]: Bayesian framework, because it's just how the framework works. And so you [Alex Andorra]: just put parameters into parameters like Russian dolls, which makes it extremely [Alex Andorra]: powerful. Hierarchical models are extremely powerful, especially when you [Alex Andorra]: have low sample sizes, because then you can pull information and have basically [Alex Andorra]: better models. But then it's like, people are like, so can I do a five-nested,

[Alex Andorra]: five-dimensional nested hierarchy? You can. On paper, you can. Will you be able [Alex Andorra]: to identify the top-level hierarchy? And then just also interpret it? I'm not sure. [Alex Andorra]: Start [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: with a two-level nested hierarchy, then we'll see. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: I put all of that in the show notes. Lots of things in the show notes for [Alex Andorra]: this episode. That's really cool. I really encourage you to take a look

[Alex Andorra]: at people. And Eric, you are being extremely generous with your time. I'm [Alex Andorra]: going to try to start winding down and close up the show. So maybe. Yeah, [Alex Andorra]: something I would like to ask you is more forward looking. I had two questions [Alex Andorra]: about that, that I'm going to condense into one, and then, uh, and then we'll

[Alex Andorra]: get more practical for, for people to, to end up the show. So, um, looking [Alex Andorra]: ahead, basically, um, I'm curious about what you are mostly excited about in [Alex Andorra]: your, in your field of sports and nutrition science and basically like the, [Alex Andorra]: the question if there is one big question that you'd like the answer to [Alex Andorra]: before you die.

[Eric]: Yeah, in terms of what I'm excited about, the field is growing up. I mean, it's crazy [Eric]: because I have been kind of on the periphery of the field, I would say, for four or five [Eric]: years as I finished my PhD, went out, did some, you know, industry work, started [Eric]: some companies and whatnot. Now that I'm getting back into it, it's remarkable. [Eric]: I'm excited because it's grown in the direction I had hoped. And I most importantly

[Eric]: didn't have to do any of the hard work. which is great. [Alex Andorra]: Hehehehe [Eric]: So I was one of those like hypocrites who just said, you guys ought to do this, that [Eric]: and the other thing. And then I got the hell out of there. And now that [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: I'm coming back, I'm like, oh great, you did it all. Awesome, thanks for that. Now [Eric]: I'm ready to dive back in now that it's easier to kind of pile on rather than pave

[Eric]: the path. But yeah, I mean, I remember when I was leaving the, not leaving the, when [Eric]: I was taking a little detour, the things I was thinking were, and saying, I was just [Eric]: like, man, we need to do low sample size is a problem, right? Why are we not doing [Eric]: more multisite trials? [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: It's such an intuitive way. We're all using the same equipment and the same methods. [Eric]: We're all [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: making the same manufacturing companies richer by using the same machines. So why don't [Eric]: we pool our data in these multisite trials and then we can actually make much more [Eric]: robust inferences without having to... land these grants that are five times more [Eric]: than we're actually feasibly going to get. So I've been seeing more multi-site trials,

[Eric]: which is really exciting. I remember thinking, we need to be branching out statistically [Eric]: and specifically doing more Bayesian analysis, but also doing more hierarchical [Eric]: models, kind of adopting that linear mixed model framework. And I've been seeing [Eric]: so much more of that. because, and it's perfect for our field, we had gotten locked [Eric]: into analysis of variance being the kind of, the default approach to what we do,

[Eric]: frequentist analysis of variance. And I'm seeing so many more linear mix models and [Eric]: hierarchical models and seeing [Alex Andorra]: Great. [Eric]: so much more application of Bayesian statistics. So those are things that excite [Eric]: me. And one thing that I'd really like to see even more of, which we're getting more [Eric]: of, is embracing some of those open science principles in two ways. First of all, [Eric]: I'm seeing more preprints, which is very [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: exciting because I just don't think there's any need for us to wait nine, 12 months [Eric]: for that thing to get into print. I really like the preprint approach to publication. [Eric]: And one area that I'm not seeing quite as much of, but it is happening more, is open [Eric]: data, you know, [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: completely open data files, not... not the sentence at the end that says, if you beg [Eric]: me, I will send it. And then they never respond [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: to emails. But open data, I think is huge for our field because we're so interested [Eric]: in inter-individual variation. A really fantastic way to get at that is by doing, ideally, [Eric]: if we could do more participant level meta-analyses, we'd be in really good shape [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: to address some of those things. But you can't do participant level meta-analyses. [Eric]: It's very infeasible to do. until you get a little bit more buy-in with open data

[Eric]: sets. So that's what I'm excited about. And then in terms of questions I wanna answer, [Eric]: I have to be honest, like I still am a bit of a generalist at heart. And my overall [Eric]: focus is to make sure that we are empowering people to take control of their cardio metabolic [Eric]: health if they wish, right? So I'm not into telling anyone what they should or ought

[Eric]: to do. But for someone who says, hey, I want to feel better every day or, you know, [Eric]: change my body weight in the following way, I want to empower people to be able to [Eric]: do that in an informed way where they feel like they have a great deal of autonomy [Eric]: and self-efficacy. And to make that work, we need effective interventions. And [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: as I look around, I really don't think that we need any paradigm shifting basic science

[Eric]: to occur in order to make that happen. I think. you know, what we have now in terms [Eric]: of understanding energy balance is pretty robust. I think the biggest things that would [Eric]: even come close to being like game changers would be just the fact that we now have a better [Eric]: understanding of metabolic adaptation, energy, you know, exercise energy compensation, [Eric]: and now seeing this new wave of effective obesity drugs on the market. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: I mean, now that we're seeing how these, you know, these different areas interrelate, [Eric]: I'm not sitting around waiting for a huge paradigm shift like we're going to potentially [Eric]: see in physics, right? Where we say, oh, now we need to rewrite all the textbooks. [Eric]: I think really what I'd like to see is more of the just boring everyday science [Eric]: where we make incremental progress towards seeing how some of these pieces fit together.

[Eric]: I think seeing things related to... Health psychology behavior change appetite [Eric]: regulation energy expenditure regulation exercise adherence I think those are the final [Eric]: pieces where we just need a little bit more of that Regular old-fashioned boring science [Eric]: of incremental progress where we start to [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: put some of these things together And what I'd love to see is a holistic approach [Eric]: where we're focusing on Behavior change psychology sleep energy intake, you know diet [Eric]: and exercise factors And frankly, right now I'm really optimistic about using those [Eric]: in conjunction with some of these new pharmacological interventions for weight reduction. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: And what I'd love to see is if perhaps we can get to a point with these non-pharmacological [Eric]: interventions that they are all introduced at the beginning and we have the aid of that [Eric]: pharmacological intervention to kind of do a lot of the heavy lifting at the beginning. [Eric]: but then eventually offer an off-ramp [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: where a person can say, yeah, I need to do maybe a six or 12 month stint of this [Eric]: pharmacological intervention, then get off of it and use these behavioral approaches [Eric]: moving forward to maintain that progress. Whether or not we can do that, I think we gotta [Eric]: get better. I think we need to really bolster. some of the interventions that we're [Eric]: currently doing, but I do see that as potentially something that isn't implausible [Eric]: in the near future.

[Alex Andorra]: Yeah. Thanks for that optimistic note. And I mean, and I do agree. Like I was [Alex Andorra]: actually quite surprised when I started digging into the literature that [Alex Andorra]: we have, it's not, it's not, you know, cosmology and like Big Bang physics, [Alex Andorra]: like we have that stuff not figured out, but I don't know if the Pareto [Alex Andorra]: effect is already here, but like really there is some... already solid

[Alex Andorra]: scientific evidence of things we know and reproducible. Like you try it on [Alex Andorra]: people and it works. So apparently [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: we're there. So that's really good. And yeah, what that made me think is, [Alex Andorra]: eh, that's weird. That will still seem in the general public, so many really

[Alex Andorra]: crappy science and nutrition advice. And basically it's now, it seems to [Alex Andorra]: me to be at a point where It's more a question of, okay, how do we package [Alex Andorra]: the science that we actually have and the knowledge that we actually have [Alex Andorra]: and allow it to percolate into the general audience? And it's more this than [Alex Andorra]: really paradigm shifting things that apparently we need right now. Yeah, I [Alex Andorra]: agree.

[Eric]: I'm glad you brought that up because I honestly think the biggest failure of nutrition [Eric]: and exercise science collectively is, and I'm not even pointing the finger in terms [Eric]: of blame or offering how to fix it. Maybe I'll go away for four or five years and [Eric]: they'll fix it all and then I can come back. The [Alex Andorra]: Yeah [Eric]: widespread failure to do some of that. public outreach and engagement in an effective [Eric]: way. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: The fact that right now there are so many knowledgeable folks in exercise and nutrition, [Eric]: but the people who hold the megaphone are the influencers on Instagram who are dictating [Eric]: the public discourse of what fitness looks like and what health looks like. It is [Eric]: such a catastrophic failure. And I don't think our fields view it as their responsibility

[Eric]: yet. And I hope that changes within the next five or 10 years. I hope that, for [Eric]: example, I think it's insane that a tenured full professor has all these expectations [Eric]: for what they do with their time professionally in terms of community support or service to

[Eric]: the university, their research, reviewing papers, mentorship, teaching. They have all [Eric]: these different things that are... codified into their role as a thought leader in this [Eric]: area in the academic world and it seems like the public outreach the public communication [Eric]: science communication is so undervalued and Not incentivized in the slightest [Alex Andorra]: No. [Eric]: and [Alex Andorra]: Yeah.

[Eric]: then everyone looks around and says hey, how come no one listens to us And it's [Eric]: like because [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: that communication you have never made it part of the job. You've never incentivized [Eric]: it You've never rewarded it in a meaningful way. And now you're wondering why you don't [Eric]: dominate the headlines and lead the discourse. And it's because there's no reason

[Eric]: for that to be the case. And there are people who are spending all of their day just [Eric]: on the communication. And they will out influence you every [Alex Andorra]: Oh yeah. [Eric]: single day of the week if there's no meaningful attempt of these fields to actually [Eric]: lead that outreach. So I'm glad that you brought that up because that is a huge [Eric]: failure. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, I mean, I completely agree. That's what I saw. I mean, it's hard work for

[Alex Andorra]: sure. This is a hard thing. We've struggled with that in the vision stats [Alex Andorra]: world for three years. I think we're getting way better now. Surely, almost [Alex Andorra]: internally, due to this podcast, I think we can acknowledge it. No, but joking [Alex Andorra]: aside, yeah, it's hard work, but it needs to be done because like, Yeah, [Alex Andorra]: I've seen the same content you're seeing, of course. And I'm like, it's so messy.

[Alex Andorra]: I'm like, this is shame because, well, apart from the fact that I still don't [Alex Andorra]: understand why people believe what celebrities say, just because they are [Alex Andorra]: celebrities. You know, I don't know why you would believe it's celebrity because [Alex Andorra]: they are doing some workout or some diet, even though, you know, they are [Alex Andorra]: not, they like, they have no knowledge in it. But okay, that aside, it makes

[Alex Andorra]: me sad always a bit, but I'm like, oh, but we know about that. Like, we [Alex Andorra]: like... science knows about that, this falls, and there is a better way [Alex Andorra]: to do it. So that would be better for people who are listening to that person [Alex Andorra]: to actually do something that works for them and not spend their hard-earned [Alex Andorra]: money on something that we know is not going to work. And yeah, so there is

[Alex Andorra]: definitely a lot of work to do on that. Incentives, extremely important [Alex Andorra]: for sure. And I mean, that's also related to something you mentioned before, [Alex Andorra]: Also, it's very important on these podcasts, not only because myself, I [Alex Andorra]: am an open source developer, but like I know a lot of listeners are open [Alex Andorra]: source developers and are the people building these open software. And so

[Alex Andorra]: of course, open data for us is extremely important. And I think it's changing [Alex Andorra]: a bit. I see more and more, you know, academics doing open data and even

[Alex Andorra]: developing packages, open source packages. Thanks to R and Python mainly, which [Alex Andorra]: are picked up and then it's so common in those languages to have an open [Alex Andorra]: source package somewhere that yeah, it starts to become a custom, but yeah, [Alex Andorra]: like I think universities could make a better job incentivizing basically investing [Alex Andorra]: in open source and open source means also open data. So yeah, for sure.

[Eric]: Yeah, well, my advice to you, if you want to spread the word of Bayesian stats, [Eric]: the thing that sold me on it, at least on a theoretical level, when you make someone, [Eric]: force them to interact with the true definition and interpretation of a p-value [Eric]: and a confidence interval, [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: I feel like if they know what they're doing and they know what they want to do with [Eric]: their research, that alone [Alex Andorra]: Mm.

[Eric]: they should say, wait a minute, there's got to be a better way. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: And I do think Bayesian offers just a dramatically more intuitive interpretation [Eric]: when it comes to the final output. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, for sure. For sure. That's completely true. Even though in my experience, [Alex Andorra]: the best way to introduce people to patient status when patient status solves

[Alex Andorra]: one of the problems. They have spent, often in like doctoral students, spent [Alex Andorra]: hours on a frequency software and it doesn't work. And then they switch and [Alex Andorra]: use, I don't know, BRMS or BAMBi, and then just one line of formula. And that [Alex Andorra]: works. That's the best way. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: That's the best trojan horse. Yeah.

[Eric]: Absolutely. [Alex Andorra]: Um, so to close up before I ask you the last two questions, um, we've talked [Alex Andorra]: a bit about that already, and I think it's something I wanted to cover also, [Alex Andorra]: because I know personally, uh, a lot of people, um, these were not in the [Alex Andorra]: same circle. So I'm guessing a lot of people, you know, are really already [Alex Andorra]: into, into exercise and things like that, but in my world, not necessarily.

[Alex Andorra]: And, uh, something I often encounter is. Well, a lot of people who tell me that [Alex Andorra]: they would like to take better care of their health and their body, but basically [Alex Andorra]: they are a bit overwhelmed and they are intimidated by the amount of discipline [Alex Andorra]: it requires, at least it seems to them, things like counting your calories,

[Alex Andorra]: weighing yourself consistently, all those things. So I wanted to close up the [Alex Andorra]: show by being practical and basically, ask you what you would recommend [Alex Andorra]: to help get those people on their healthier path. [Eric]: Yeah, I would say, you know, if you're just getting started, I'm going to give two

[Eric]: pieces of advice that seem contradictory, but they're actually complimentary. So first [Eric]: you want to choose the strategies or the interventions that kind of feel at the [Eric]: starting point to be most feasible or most accessible to you, or I guess most enjoyable [Eric]: even, right? So you might be someone who says, I want to lose some weight, but I [Eric]: don't want to count my calories. Then don't. Let's just change the types of foods

[Eric]: that you're eating and do some basic portion control. When I won my professional [Eric]: status in bodybuilding, I did not count my calories during my contest preparation. [Eric]: You [Alex Andorra]: No. [Eric]: don't [Alex Andorra]: Interesting. [Eric]: have to. If you know generally what you're eating, then you kind of have a sense [Eric]: of how many calories you're eating. [Alex Andorra]: Hmph.

[Eric]: And even if you did calculate it down to the single calorie, guess what? You're wrong. [Eric]: I mean, the food labels are not that accurate. There's variability in the energy [Eric]: content of food. So anyway, bit of a tangent, but choose the strategies that feel [Eric]: like they're going to be the most accessible, most enjoyable, most feasible and build on [Eric]: that. So same thing, if you don't want to change your diet at all, but you kind of

[Eric]: enjoy doing some physical activities, go play basketball more. Boom. Now you've taken [Eric]: that first step. And once you're doing more basketball, you're getting in better shape, [Eric]: maybe then that progress starts to fuel additional motivation to chip into some of [Eric]: those things that used to seem like they were too much, but now you're like, you [Eric]: know, I've already come so far. I'd really like to see what we can do here and

[Eric]: kind of take this up a notch. The other thing is, number two here, is that you want [Eric]: to start with goals that are hard enough to care about, but easy enough. to build some [Eric]: degree of self-efficacy. You know, you wanna [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: get your confidence rolling as you go. So, like I said, you wanna choose things that [Eric]: are feasible, enjoyable, realistic, but if they're too easy and they're too feasible, [Eric]: you're not actually gonna feel like you're doing anything. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: And that can actually be a bit of a dead end because the fact that we are making [Eric]: positive improvements and making changes to make ourselves better, that alone becomes

[Eric]: a source of motivation. So what they find in the goal setting literature is that [Eric]: if a goal is too hard, you're gonna fail, your self-efficacy will plummet, you [Eric]: will start to believe, I actually cannot do this. But if you set a goal that's too easy, [Eric]: you do it, but you're like, am I, it's like playing basketball against a four-year-old

[Eric]: and it's like, yeah, I won, but do I really feel good? Of course I won, right? It's [Eric]: not enough to get you excited and make you feel like you're actually making some improvements [Eric]: to feel really. happy about and enthusiastic about. So that would be my recommendation. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Love it. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot, Harry. Again, [Eric]: No offense [Alex Andorra]: the first [Eric]: to four [Alex Andorra]: one.

[Eric]: year olds. I'm sure many of you are good at basketball. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah. If four-year-olds listen to this podcast, please message me, [Alex Andorra]: we'll get you on the show. I want that on the show. [Eric]: a prodigy out there.

[Alex Andorra]: Oh yeah. Oh my God. And yeah, the first point made me think we have that [Alex Andorra]: saying in French, which is, l'appetit vient en mangeant, which means, I [Alex Andorra]: don't think it's true for hunger actually, but it means hunger comes as you [Alex Andorra]: eat. So yeah. Like your first option, like it's basically, yeah, try something [Alex Andorra]: first. And then you'll see that if you like it, you'll naturally get nerdier

[Alex Andorra]: about it. I would say. Awesome, Eric, I think we're breaking a record of the [Alex Andorra]: longest episode here. So I am not surprised it's with you because I know [Alex Andorra]: you have a history of very long, very long recordings behind you. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: So, you know, is there any topic I didn't ask you about and that you'd like [Alex Andorra]: to mention? [Eric]: No, it's a me problem. I go on and on. So I, almost every podcast I go on, they say,

[Eric]: wow, this is our longest one ever. So sorry about [Alex Andorra]: Hahaha [Eric]: that folks, but yeah, we've covered everything that the audience can handle. I'm [Eric]: sure. [Alex Andorra]: Awesome. Yeah. So for people who... Oh, no, wait. I'm forgetting the last

[Alex Andorra]: two questions. Am I crazy? So yeah, before closing up the show, I'm going [Alex Andorra]: to ask you the last two questions I ask every guest at the end of the show because [Alex Andorra]: as I always say, it's not the point estimate that counts, it's the distribution [Alex Andorra]: of answers. So first one, if you had unlimited time, and resources, which [Alex Andorra]: problem would you try to solve?

[Eric]: Yeah, so I don't think that I'm personally equipped to solve really any of the pressing [Eric]: problems in the world, but You did give me unlimited time and unlimited resources So [Eric]: I would just assemble a team to do it with all my time and resources I wouldn't tell [Eric]: them about how much time they had I'd put a fake sense [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: of urgency But I would get together the best and the brightest and try to figure [Eric]: out a really Powerful solution in terms of generating clean energy for the world generating [Eric]: that energy and distributing that energy effectively. I think when I pretend to know [Eric]: more about my specific area of expertise, which is always a bad idea, every time I look [Eric]: at the world's problems, for a large percentage of them, I see them as energy problems.

[Eric]: And I think if we could find a tremendous solution to meeting the energy demands of the [Eric]: world in a way that is not... detrimental to the environment and can be distributed effectively, [Eric]: I think we'd live in a much better world. I would do my own version of the Manhattan [Eric]: Project, but it would be for clean energy, and I'd get [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: the best and brightest together and pay them whatever they need.

[Alex Andorra]: Nice. Yeah. I love it. And I think we're back to physics [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: then. When I understood like fusion, nuclear fusion, maybe one of our closest [Alex Andorra]: contenders in this. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: And second question, if you could have dinner with any great scientific [Alex Andorra]: mind dead, alive or fictional, who would it be? [Eric]: It would be Leonardo da Vinci. [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: I don't know if that's too cliche. Have you gotten that one before? [Alex Andorra]: Yes, but not that often. Yeah, [Eric]: Okay. So [Alex Andorra]: less [Eric]: the reason [Alex Andorra]: often than [Eric]: for [Alex Andorra]: you [Eric]: that, [Alex Andorra]: think. [Eric]: I was going on a date with someone many years ago, and I wanted to seem smart and cultured. [Eric]: So we went to an art museum. It's always a good choice. Good little conversation starters

[Eric]: along the way. It's great. Good date idea. The exhibit that they had was actually [Eric]: like, you know, they had the normal stuff that's always out, but they had a special [Eric]: exhibit where they had some of DaVinci's notes on display. [Alex Andorra]: Oh nice! [Eric]: and it [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm.

[Eric]: was fascinating. And I was looking at these notes and reading the summaries of what [Eric]: they were, because I'm pretty sure they were in backwards cursive [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: Italian, if memory serves, with all sorts of shorthand scribbles, and it was chaotic. [Eric]: And the [Alex Andorra]: Yeah. [Eric]: notes were just absolutely, some of them were brilliant, some of them were just

[Eric]: absolutely insane. And if you look at some of his ideas, you look at some of his [Eric]: inventions, look at his multifaceted interests, What more could you want from a [Eric]: dinner guest? Just fascinating, a little bit insane, can talk about any topic. Yeah, [Eric]: that would be a wild time. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, yeah, I know for sure. And such a life also incredible each time. [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: Also a big fan. I'm a big fan of Italian culture and the country also in

[Alex Andorra]: Salso. I often go there and yeah, I was in Rome again a few days ago and [Alex Andorra]: just, yeah, what a city incredible and [Eric]: Yeah, I [Alex Andorra]: yeah. [Eric]: mean, I was looking at looking at his notes and when you're on page like six of the [Eric]: ramblings about the [Alex Andorra]: Mm-hmm. [Eric]: lake and river systems on the moon, you're [Alex Andorra]: Mm [Eric]: getting into the good stuff. I'm just like, dude, what are you talking about?

[Alex Andorra]: hmm. Yeah, my main question would be, did you write that clean? Or were [Alex Andorra]: you on substance? Because if you did that on [Eric]: Yeah. [Alex Andorra]: a clean brain, that's even more impressive. [Eric]: Absolutely. [Alex Andorra]: Yeah, kudos. Yeah. And yeah, so if anybody is happens to be in France, in [Alex Andorra]: actually my region where I was born, which is called the Loire Valley. You

[Alex Andorra]: have one castle, which is the castle of Amboise. And really next to that [Alex Andorra]: castle, you have a not that small mansion, which is Leonardo da Vinci's [Alex Andorra]: last house. He died there. He spent his last few years at the court of Francois [Alex Andorra]: Premier. And yeah, like this is called the Clos Lucé. So if you had the [Alex Andorra]: opportunity to read it, that's really... Incredible. First, the domain is

[Alex Andorra]: beautiful. He had his own vines. He was making his own wine. You've got some [Alex Andorra]: of the replicas of some of his inventions, and you've got some notes also. [Alex Andorra]: His bedroom and so on. That's really a beautiful place to visit. I encourage [Alex Andorra]: anybody to go there if they have the opportunity. Well, Eric, I think now [Alex Andorra]: we can call it a show. Thank you so much for your time. It was absolutely

[Alex Andorra]: fascinating. Learned a lot, of course, and motivated to still learn a lot [Alex Andorra]: about all this. As usual, I will put a link to all your websites, socials, [Alex Andorra]: and so on for people who want to get in touch with you and also a lot of [Alex Andorra]: show notes. For those of you who want to dig deeper, thanks a lot, Eric, [Alex Andorra]: for taking the time and being on this show. [Eric]: Thank you so much, I had a great time.