Last week saw significant market volatility, with the S&P 500 experiencing its worst trading session since September 2022 on Monday, followed by a strong recovery on Thursday. Despite this, the S&P 500 ended the week nearly flat, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 posted small losses. The bond market also fluctuated, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 3.93% after touching its lowest level of the year. This week, market focus shifts to the upcoming CPI report and retail earnings, wh...
Aug 12, 2024•6 min
Last week, investor sentiment shifted dramatically from Greed to Fear due to soft economic data and unresponsive FOMC statements, causing major market declines. Despite solid corporate earnings, the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, the Nasdaq dropped 3.4%, and the Russell 2000 plummeted 6.7%, with the VIX spiking and bond yields falling. The Fed's continued restrictive monetary policy amidst a slowing economy raised concerns of a potential hard landing, further amplified by weak manufacturing and empl...
Aug 05, 2024•7 min
Last week saw a significant market rally on Friday, ending a volatile week marked by a shift from tech stocks to small caps. The Nasdaq Composite experienced its worst one-day loss since 2022, but small and mid-caps saw gains of 3.5% and 2%, respectively. Outside of equities, financial markets remained stable, with minimal changes in the dollar, gold, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury. This week, focus shifts to earnings and the labor market, with key reports from major companies and the Jul...
Jul 29, 2024•6 min
Last week, the market experienced notable shifts as technology stocks declined, leading the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to fall by 3.6% and 1.9%, respectively, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.5%. Earnings season began positively, with the S&P 500’s second-quarter profit growth estimate rising to 9.7%, the highest since late 2021. Economic data showed mixed signals, including a rise in unemployment claims, which added to market volatility. Additionally, a significant IT outage caused by ...
Jul 22, 2024•7 min
Last week, the broader market surged following remarks from Fed Chair Powell and a softer-than-expected CPI report, with small caps gaining over 5% and mid-caps rising more than 4%. The bond market rallied, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level since March. This week, earnings season kicks off with 45 S&P 500 companies reporting, and consensus calls for 9.3% composite growth on 4.8% revenue growth. Retail Sales data for June will be released on Tuesday, expected to sho...
Jul 15, 2024•7 min
The S&P 500 kicked off the second half of 2024 with its best weekly performance in eight weeks, driven primarily by Big Tech, as the Nasdaq surged 3.5%. Despite this rally, there was notable performance dispersion, with the Equal Weight S&P 500 Index and small-cap indexes declining. Enthusiasm for Artificial Intelligence has propelled momentum stocks, while high interest rates have weighed down other sectors, and recent economic data suggests potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This wee...
Jul 08, 2024•6 min
Last week, the stock market remained relatively flat despite positive economic signals from FedEx and an expected inflation report. Consumer discretionary spending showed signs of weakness, suggesting potential Fed rate cuts in 2024, though the timing could be influenced by the upcoming election. Energy and Banking sectors outperformed following the debate, while Clean Energy and Cannabis sectors declined. This week, market attention will focus on the employment outlook with key jobs reports, po...
Jul 01, 2024•5 min
Last week saw a significant trading volume spike due to Friday’s “triple witching” event and annual index rebalancing, with $5.5 trillion in options expiring. The S&P 500 advanced 0.6%, setting its 31st record high of 2024, despite modest profit-taking in tech stocks which left the Nasdaq Composite unchanged. Economic indicators painted a picture of a steady but slowing economy, highlighted by soft retail sales, existing home sales, and the Purchasing Managers Index. Notably, a dovish shift ...
Jun 24, 2024•8 min
The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North S...
Jun 17, 2024•6 min
Last week, mega-cap momentum stocks concealed broader market weakness, with hawkish Federal Reserve comments and disappointing Salesforce results driving declines. However, the week ended positively as the PCE Price Index aligned with a downward inflation trend, although the S&P 500 broke its five-week winning streak. This week, the focus shifts to Friday's May jobs report, the final one before the Federal Reserve's June meeting. Debate continues over potential rate cuts, but resilie...
Jun 03, 2024•5 min
Last week, the S&P 500 extended its rally despite underlying weaknesses across most equity sectors, with notable strength only in mega-cap technology stocks like Nvidia. The broader market saw more declining than advancing issues, with the Dow Jones and small/mid-cap indexes falling while the Nasdaq gained due to strong Nvidia earnings. Hawkish Federal Reserve comments and signs of a slowing economy, evident from major retailer earnings and consumer sentiment data, contributed to the market&...
May 28, 2024•6 min
The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North S...
May 20, 2024•6 min
Last week's market rebound continued for the third consecutive week, nearly recovering April's losses, buoyed by optimistic earnings reports and expectations of 2024 Fed interest rate cuts. Despite some lagging earnings from capital equipment companies, overall composite growth for the first quarter increased, with every industry sector finishing positively. This week, focus shifts to key economic releases, particularly U.S. retail sales and the consumer price index (CPI), alongside earn...
May 13, 2024•5 min
Last week, Wall Street saw a positive turn with strong earnings reports, a slightly dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, and softer job data leading to a rally in equity markets. Despite lower-than-expected job gains and a slight increase in unemployment, the overall economic sentiment remained steady, potentially paving the way for lower interest rates. Earnings season continued with notable reports from Amazon and Apple, contributing to a positive market outlook. Looking ahead, with more S&am...
May 06, 2024•6 min
Last week, the market saw a minor pullback rather than a significant correction, with gains in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Small and mid-cap sectors lagged behind due to concerns about economic challenges and interest rate hikes. Economic data hinted at lower-than-expected GDP growth and higher inflation, leading to discussions of potential stagflation. This week, investors are eyeing the Federal Reserve meeting, April jobs report, and corporate earnings, particularl...
Apr 29, 2024•7 min
Last week, the stock market faced significant pressure, with the S&P 500 extending its losing streak to six days, leading to its worst weekly performance in over a year and entering correction territory. Geopolitical concerns and disappointing earnings, particularly in the Tech and Health Care sectors, contributed to the downturn. However, the Financials sector saw positive earnings growth, with banking stocks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase showing promise. This week, attention turn...
Apr 22, 2024•7 min
Last week, amidst Wall Street's worst performance since October, gold emerged as a refuge, historically attracting investors during crises. The market downturn stemmed from a hotter-than-expected CPI report and geopolitical tensions, compounded by cautionary remarks from JPMorgan's CEO. Equities plummeted across sectors, while bond yields surged, reflecting market uncertainty. Despite positive earnings, concerns lingered about economic downturn risks, geopolitical unrest, and Federal Res...
Apr 15, 2024•7 min
Investors faced a challenging start in April, marked by market declines driven by strong economic data and Fed's stance on interest rates. Energy price spikes and bond market turbulence added to inflation concerns. Despite positive economic indicators, expectations for Fed rate cuts in June diminished, impacting market performance negatively, with small caps hit hardest. Looking ahead, upcoming earnings reports and CPI data release will influence market sentiment and Fed's policy decisio...
Apr 08, 2024•7 min
In March, Wall Street witnessed a bullish run with record highs in the S&P 500, supported by small and mid-cap stock outperformance, marking a strong end to the first quarter. Investors are encouraged to consider small-cap allocations due to potential benefits from Fed rate cuts, driving lower yields and higher stock prices. Additionally, U.S. consumer sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, while inflation remained in check. Looking ahead, focus remains on the BLS jobs report for March, with ...
Apr 01, 2024•6 min
Investors celebrated as the market rebounded strongly, led by Nvidia's optimistic forecast and the Federal Reserve's indication of maintaining interest rates. The S&P 500 surged by 2.3%, its best performance of the year, with other indices also posting significant gains. Treasury yields dipped, while the dollar strengthened, and commodities markets remained stable. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the need for interest rate cuts to align with real interest rates were echo...
Mar 25, 2024•6 min
March came in like a bull for the stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs fueled by tech stocks and consumer-related issues, driven partly by declining Treasury yields and better-than-expected corporate earnings. Despite troubles at New York Community Bancorp, the regional bank index remained steady. Small caps led the market during the week, with the Russell 2000 surging 2.9%, while trading volume was heavy and advancing issues outnumbered declining ones. Looking ahe...
Mar 04, 2024•6 min
Nvidia's impressive quarterly earnings and robust guidance led to record highs in major indices, driven by "insatiable demand" for its AI chips, briefly pushing the company's valuation above $2 trillion. Despite concerns from the last FOMC meeting minutes, tech stocks surged while the Russell 2000 declined. The economic calendar highlights include data on new home sales and durable orders, with focus on the core PCE number for potential impact on 2024 interest rate cuts. Additi...
Feb 26, 2024•7 min
Inflation data exceeding expectations led to a modest market sell-off, particularly affecting small caps, but bargain hunters stepped in mid-week. Concerns over Federal Reserve interest rate cuts resurfaced after the CPI and PPI reports, reducing odds of a March cut from 63% to 11%. Despite market turbulence, the Russell 2000 ended the week positively, showing resilience. Earnings season continues with notable beats, while attention shifts to upcoming reports from companies like Walmart and NVID...
Feb 20, 2024•6 min
Market participants received encouraging inflation data after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the Consumer Price Index, showing a 0.2% rise in core consumer prices for December. This, along with a resilient economy and strong earnings season, fueled a market rally with major averages marking their fifth consecutive weekly gains. Earnings season continued to surprise positively, with the S&P 500 reporting higher earnings growth for the fourth quarter, especially in sectors like Fi...
Feb 12, 2024•6 min
Corporate earnings and U.S. economic data brought positive news, offset by moderately hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Strong performances in Health Care, Information Technology, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication sectors led to a rise in S&P 500 composite earnings. Meta Platforms Inc, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Amazon.com Inc were among the standout companies with positive earnings. The Federal Reserve maintained unchanged interest rates, signaling p...
Feb 05, 2024•7 min
Investor optimism soared as positive economic data, including a 3.3% growth in the U.S. GDP for Q4 2023, exceeded the expected 2% gain. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in December, signaling a strong economy with moderate inflation. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 all posted gains, with Oil & Gas stocks leading the way. Notable Q4 2023 earnings growth contributors in the S&P 500 were NVIDIA, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple, collectively e...
Jan 29, 2024•6 min
This episode discusses the perplexing contrast between a robust economy and persistently low consumer sentiment over the past 18 months. Recently, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a significant 13% increase in the first half of January, marking a 29% surge since November – the most substantial two-month rise since 1991. The positive shift is attributed to a decline in gas prices, with the correlation between fuel costs and consumer sentiment highlighted. Investors exper...
Jan 22, 2024•7 min
In the past week, stocks saw a modest increase due to lower bond yields driven by tame inflation reports, boosting investor confidence in potential Fed interest rate cuts. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.1% in December, primarily driven by reduced costs for goods like diesel fuel and food. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.3% monthly increase, concerns arise about potential overstatement, especially in the "owners’ equivalent rent" component. Despite a tepid start t...
Jan 17, 2024•7 min
Investors experienced a post-holiday market correction as the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.2%, and Russell 2000 sank 3.8%. Tech sector woes were exacerbated by Apple's analyst downgrades. The bond market mirrored this trend with the 10-year Treasury yield surging 17 basis points to 4.03%. Despite positive job additions in December, downward revisions and concerns over wage increases hinted at a more nuanced economic picture. Looking ahead, the December CPI report and ear...
Jan 08, 2024•7 min
Post-Christmas, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Nasdaq gained 0.1%, and Russell 2000 slipped 0.3% with a continuing Santa Claus rally. Despite modest gains and lower trading volume, most sectors ended positively, except for Oil & Gas. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 3.87%, echoing the year's start, following the Federal Reserve's shift in late 2023. North Star plans to challenge emerging consensus views in 2024, expressing confidence in quarterback Justin Fields for the Chicago Bear...
Jan 02, 2024•6 min
