Kuby's Commentary - podcast cover

Kuby's Commentary

North Star Investment Management Corpplayer.whooshkaa.com
Written by Eric Kuby, CIO of North Star. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the North Star Funds. No-Load Mutual funds are sold without sales charge; however, they have ongoing expenses, such as management fees. This and other important information about each of the Funds are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained at www.nsinvestfunds.com or by calling (855) 580-0900. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The North Star Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC member FINRA/SIPC.

Episodes

Déjà Vu Slump | March 17th, 2025

Last week, markets faced heightened volatility, marking a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 fell 2.3%, the Nasdaq slid 2.4%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.5%, with sharp early-week selloffs driven by escalating trade war tensions and fears of a government shutdown. A last-minute deal on Friday spurred a short-covering rally. Economic data was mixed—February's consumer and producer inflation softened, but the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 57.9, its lowest sinc...

Mar 17, 20256 min

Like a Barracuda | March 10th, 2025

For further insights and fund holdings, visit ⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.nsinvestfunds.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠ . The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securit...

Mar 10, 20256 min

Slump, Rather Than Bump | March 3rd, 2025

Markets faced volatility last week as tariff concerns and softening economic data pressured equities. The S&P 500 slipped 1%, while the Nasdaq dropped 3.5%, and small caps signaled economic uncertainty with a 1.5% decline. Nvidia’s 8% drop despite strong earnings highlighted struggles for the Magnificent 7. However, defensive sectors and the Equal Weight Index showed resilience, reinforcing the case for diversification. Bond yields fell, gold retreated, and sentiment indexes hit their lowest...

Mar 03, 20258 min

Bad Moon Rising | February 24th, 2025

Last week, record highs in the stock market were reversed after weak Walmart guidance and a steep drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index led to the year's sharpest sell-off on Friday. Small-cap stocks and consumer services were hit hardest, while defensive sectors like Health Care and Utilities managed to close in the green. Consumer sentiment for February fell 10% below January levels, with inflation expectations surging to 4.3%, and Federal Reserve minutes indicated no...

Feb 24, 20257 min

Tariff Teeter Totter | February 18th, 2025

Stocks rebounded last week, snapping a two-week losing streak as tariff delays, mixed inflation data, and strong corporate earnings lifted markets. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the Nasdaq surged 2.6%, and small caps were flat, while Treasury yields held steady. Inflation remains sticky around 3%, with concerns that tariffs could limit further improvement. Earnings growth accelerated to 16.9%, with nine of eleven sectors reporting double-digit gains. This week, markets face a holiday-shortened sc...

Feb 18, 20256 min

Tariff Talk Takes a Toll | February 10th, 2025

Markets faced uncertainty last week as earnings growth accelerated, but tariff concerns weighed on sentiment. Strong reports from Amazon, Uber, Pfizer, and Bristol-Myers boosted S&P 500 earnings growth to 16.4%, yet half of companies cited tariff risks in their outlooks. U.S. consumer confidence hit a seven-month low, inflation expectations spiked, and job growth showed mixed signals. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, Nasdaq 0.5%, and Russell 2000 0.4%, while Treasury yields dipped and gold hit new...

Feb 10, 20256 min

DeepSeek, Tight Fed, & Tariffs | February 3rd, 2025

Markets declined last week as investors grappled with headwinds from China’s AI advancements, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, and newly imposed U.S. tariffs on major trading partners. Tech stocks led losses, while defensive sectors like Financials and Consumer outperformed. The S&P 500 fell 1%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 slid 0.9%. Meanwhile, earnings season remained strong, with the S&P 500 tracking 13.2% YoY growth. This week, markets react to the tariff fallou...

Feb 03, 20257 min

Much Ado | January 27th, 2025

Last week, financial markets reacted positively to strong Q4 earnings, with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high, gaining 1.7%. Financial sector outperformance and Netflix's robust results highlighted the resilience of the U.S. consumer, though January's dip in consumer sentiment raised concerns. Meanwhile, President Trump reignited tariff debates, signaling potential action against Canada, Mexico, and possibly China. Gold rallied as a preferred hedge over surging cryptocurrencies, ...

Jan 27, 20257 min

Big Bounce | January 21st, 2025

Last Week: Tame inflation data spurred a market rally, with the S&P 500 posting a 2.9% gain, the Nasdaq up 2.5%, and small caps leading at nearly 4%. Lower-than-expected PPI and CPI reports renewed hopes for Federal Reserve policy easing in 2025, while strong bank earnings further fueled optimism. The Oil & Gas sector surged over 6% amid rising commodity prices and new Russian sanctions. Biden's presidency ended with a 55% market gain, the fourth-best in history during a presidential...

Jan 21, 20255 min

Rate Concerns Rising | January 13th, 2025

📊 Weekly Market Recap & Outlook: Stocks Sink, Inflation Data Ahead Last Week: Stocks tumbled in a holiday-shortened week as strong economic data fueled concerns about continued Federal Reserve hawkishness in early 2025. The December jobs report revealed 256,000 new jobs and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%, driving the 10-year Treasury yield up 18 basis points to 4.78%. Major indices suffered, with the S&P 500 down 1.9%, Nasdaq sliding 2.3%, and small caps plunging 3.5%. Oil & Gas was...

Jan 13, 20256 min

Ho Hum Holiday Trading | January 6th, 2025

Last week, ended 2024 on a cautious note, as economic uncertainty surrounding the new administration and hawkish monetary policy dampened sentiment. December ended a stellar year for stocks with a modest pullback, but the S&P 500 still gained +23.31% in 2024, marking consecutive 20%+ annual returns for the first time since 1998. The first trading week of 2025 saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slip -0.5%, while Small Caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up 1.1%. Bonds remained stea...

Jan 06, 20259 min

Santa Pause | December 30th, 2024

Last week, holiday-shortened trading brought volatility to the stock market with hopes for a Santa Claus Rally fading by Friday. The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and Russell 2000 (+0.2%) ended a two-week losing streak, but the bond market continued its sell-off, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.62%, the highest in over 15 years. North Star suggests considering longer bond durations if rates reach 5%. With light trading expected this week and markets closed Wednesday for ...

Dec 30, 20244 min

No Holiday Cheer from the Chair | December 23rd, 2024

Last week, value stocks saw a rebound as the IVE (iShares S&P 500 Value ETF) ended its 14-day losing streak, despite broader market declines. Small-cap value underperformed, while uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the Trump administration's policies drove volatility. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but projected fewer cuts for 2025, sparking a market sell-off after Powell's cautious comments. On the bright side, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed s...

Dec 23, 20247 min

The Smell of Speculation | December 16th, 2024

Last week, markets displayed a mixed performance as the Nasdaq edged higher (+0.3%), while the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 slipped (-0.6% and -3.0%, respectively), with bond yields rising sharply. Speculative assets like Bitcoin soared, yet concerns over irrational exuberance and elevated inflation risks loom, making inflation-protective securities more appealing. This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut, aligning with global central banks' ea...

Dec 16, 20247 min

Magnificent Crypto | December 9th, 2024

Last week saw a 6% surge in the Magnificent 7 stocks and cryptocurrencies, outpacing traditional sectors, while broader markets struggled with more decliners than advancers. The November employment report showed a modest increase of 227,000 jobs, signaling potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting amid softening year-over-year labor market trends. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked slightly lower, while cryptocurrencies soared, with Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 amidst rising...

Dec 09, 20246 min

Tra-La-La-La-Rally | December 2nd, 2024

The markets closed last week with their 53rd record high for 2024, bolstered by strong economic data, including a 2.8% GDP growth rate and the lowest jobless claims in seven months. Key indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 rose about 1%, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped significantly. Concerns lingered over President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, but traders largely held back from reacting. On the Chicago sports front, the Bears made history by firing...

Dec 02, 20245 min

Crypto Bananas | November 25th, 2024

Last week, markets rallied as the S&P 500 gained 2%, led by Small- and Mid-cap stocks, while tech stocks like Nvidia posted solid but tempered gains. Walmart hit record highs thanks to strong food sales, while Target's dip offers potential for value investors. Cryptocurrency surged alongside Bitcoin nearing $100K, reflecting broader market volatility amid evolving economic policies. Silver emerges as a long-term investment opportunity, balancing its industrial importance in clean energy with...

Nov 25, 20247 min

Not So Peaceful | November 18th, 2024

Wall Street had its worst week since early September, as concerns over tariffs, political appointments, and strong economic data dampened expectations for future interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 dropped 2.1%, the Nasdaq fell 3.1%, and the Russell 2000 sank 4%, while higher interest rates boosted the dollar but weighed on gold and crude oil. Despite a global oil and gas glut, midstream energy companies focusing on transport and storage show potential for growth and offer attractive dividend yi...

Nov 18, 20247 min

The Big Bump | November 11th, 2024

Last week, the stock market saw its strongest rally in over a year, driven by the election results, solid corporate earnings, and a Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 surged 4.7% to its 50th record high of 2024, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq also posted substantial gains, with the VIX dropping 31% for its steepest weekly decline since 2021. Former President Trump's electoral victory, along with a GOP win in the Senate, fueled optimism about potential tax cuts and deregulation, benefiting Small Ca...

Nov 11, 20247 min

Magnificent Without Satisfaction | November 4th, 2024

Last week, markets experienced a downturn driven by mixed earnings reports, economic concerns, and election-related anxieties, with notable declines in tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Apple. Despite setbacks in the Information Technology sector, overall third-quarter earnings growth improved, bolstered by positive results in sectors like Communication Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary. Economic data highlighted weaker job growth and potential labor market challenges, while ...

Nov 04, 20246 min

Spinning Markets | October 28th, 2024

The stock market ended its six-week winning streak, with the S&P slipping 1% while tech stocks gained modestly. Economic data showed consumer sentiment declined, real estate softened, and corporate earnings were mixed, with Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors reporting gains while Industrials and Energy sectors faced downward revisions. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to a three-month high, impacting equities, while gold hit a new record. This week, Wall Street will closely ...

Oct 28, 20247 min

Six Weeks of Good News | October 21st, 2024

Last week, the stock market extended its winning streak to six weeks, with broad gains across sectors, particularly in small caps, and strong earnings reports boosting investor confidence. The Financial sector outperformed thanks to a rebound in investment banking, while Netflix exceeded profit and subscriber expectations. In global news, the European Central Bank cut rates for the third time in 2024, and China announced new stimulus measures to support its real estate sector. Looking ahead, the...

Oct 21, 20247 min

Unrest Tests Markets | October 7th, 2024

Last week, the stock market posted modest gains despite rising tensions in the Middle East, potential labor disruptions, and higher interest rates, with the Oil & Gas sector leading the charge. Iranian missile strikes on Israel caused a 9% surge in crude oil prices, boosting oil stocks. Domestically, the U.S. averted a major labor crisis as dockworkers' unions reached an agreement, and a stronger-than-expected jobs report led to higher Treasury yields and reduced the likelihood of an imminen...

Oct 07, 20246 min

Stocks Rock | September 30th, 2024

Last week, U.S. stock markets reached record highs, with large-cap indices in the green while small caps had mixed results. The U.S. Dollar weakened, gold hit new highs, and crude oil prices dropped, affecting Oil & Gas stocks. Chinese equities surged after new stimulus measures, and the yield curve's positive shift signals less concern about a recession. This week, the focus will be on the U.S. labor market with the September jobs report and key earnings from companies like Nike, Carnival C...

Sep 30, 20247 min

Happy Days | September 23rd, 2024

Last week, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, sparking a 2.1% surge in small-cap equities and boosting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq by 1.5%. Gold hit new highs, oil rallied by 5%, and bond markets showed signs of recovery with an upward-moving 10-2 spread. The U.S. economy appears on a "soft landing" path, with unemployment claims dropping sharply. This week, all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s remarks at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference and key economic indicators, including September...

Sep 23, 20245 min

Kangaroo Bounce | September 16th, 2024

Last week, markets saw a "kangaroo" trend, with investor sentiment bouncing between fear and optimism as the Fed prepares for an expected rate cut. The S&P 500 rallied by 4%, nearly reaching its record high, while the Nasdaq surged 6%, supported by positive economic data and inflation reports. Bonds and gold also thrived, with gold hitting a record high and Treasury yields dropping. This week, attention shifts to the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts, with analysts expecting...

Sep 16, 20246 min

Bumpy Landing | September 9th, 2024

Last week, the market experienced its worst start to September since 1946, with the Technology and Oil & Gas sectors leading a sharp decline, while defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Goods showed resilience. Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s delay in lowering interest rates grew after weak economic reports, including the lowest job openings in three years and a modest increase in payrolls. Broadcom's disappointing guidance triggered a 10.3% drop in its stock, along with oth...

Sep 09, 20248 min

No Summertime Blues | September 3rd, 2024

Stock market investors enjoyed a summer rally, overcoming Nvidia's 7% decline, with value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway reaching significant milestones. The bond market signaled optimism as the 10-2 Treasury yield spread reversed its post-Covid inversion, reducing recession fears. The Federal Reserve's focus remained on inflation, with the PCE report supporting the case for future interest rate cuts. Looking ahead, Wall Street will concentrate on labor market data, including job opening...

Sep 03, 20246 min

What Time Is It Chairman Powell? | August 26th, 2024

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the possibility of interest rate cuts during the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, sparking a market rally, particularly in small-cap stocks and mid-cap indices. Bond yields dropped, leading to a narrowing yield curve, which could indicate a more optimistic economic outlook. The dollar's decline has benefited international markets and U.S. companies with overseas revenues, while lower rates have also driven gold prices to all-time highs. Looking ah...

Aug 26, 20247 min

Goldilocks and the Bears Are Back | August 19th, 2024

Last week, equities rallied to their best performance of the year, driven by stronger-than-expected retail sales, low unemployment claims, and solid earnings from Walmart, pushing the S&P 500 within 2% of its record high. Tech stocks led the surge, with the Nasdaq Composite jumping 5.3%, while small caps and gold also saw gains as the bond market stabilized. Investor fears of a recession eased as a "Goldilocks" scenario emerged, balancing economic data that wasn't too hot or co...

Aug 19, 20245 min