This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down this weeks CPI release. Taking a deep dive into all the elements of the CPI bucket, Mark expects inflation to continue falling throughout 2023. Will team transitory ultimately be proven right? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.co...
Jan 14, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 187
On today's episode of On the Margin, Will Clemente and Dylan LeClair join Mike to discuss Bitcoin's 2023 outlook. Bitcoin is a liquidity gauge, and the markets are drying up. We explore what we expect from macro, how the Fed will respond and what this means for crypto, bonds and currency markets. Will and Dylan then explain Bitcoin's correlation to macro, why Bitcoin has "failed" to be an inflation hedge and their (bullish) investment thesis. Finally, we close with a conversation on Bitcoin mine...
Jan 12, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Season 1Ep. 186
This week, Mark is back for the first On The Margin weekly roundup of 2023! What better way to kick off the new year than with an outlook for the year ahead in markets. As 2022 was dominated by central banks tightening in an attempt to tame inflation, how will these dynamics play out in 2023, and how will they impact asset prices from stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: ...
Jan 07, 2023•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 185
On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by one of Blockworks' very own research analysts Matt Fiebach for a deep dive on their most recent report "2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s". Matt walks us through the top stories of the year from the Ethereum merge, to the Layer 1 wars, and the various narratives the year saw in crypto markets. We then deep dive into the contagion crypto experienced with 3AC, FTX and other CeFi lenders throughout 2022. Finally, Matt loo...
Jan 04, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 184
Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as infl...
Dec 31, 2022•1 hr 14 min•Season 1Ep. 183
On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Brent Johnson CEO of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the macro forces that drove markets in 2022 and what to expect heading into 2023. The story of 2022 was the U.S Dollar says Brent, long known for his "Dollar milkshake theory". With the Dollar surging all throughout 2022, Brent walks through the effect it had on other markets from bonds, equities and Gold. Warning of the bear market rallies of 2022, Brent remains cautious on risk asset...
Dec 28, 2022•46 min•Season 1Ep. 182
In today’s episode of On The Margin, we bring on Jason and Santi from Empire to discuss our 2023 crypto thesis. We debate predictions on the Wallet Wars, ETH vs Bitcoin, the rise of insurance, app-specific vertical integration, the adoption of CBDCs, Coinbase vs DEXs, MEV as a business model and more! - - Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:30) Crypto’s 2022 Wrapped (12:18) The Bottom is in for Crypto, not for Equities (19:46) Kings of Spot & NFT Trading Will Lose Market Share (22:50) Stabl...
Dec 24, 2022•1 hr 25 min•Ep. 181
On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Byron Gilliam, Blockworks' very own Newsletter writer for a discussion on top market events in 2022, and what to expect going into 2023. We begin by discussing the current bear market in equities and bonds where Byron highlights "this bear market is not that bad" compared to previous bear markets. With his experience as an equites trader, Byron shares his thoughts on the typical 60/40, what equities look reasonably priced after the correction...
Dec 21, 2022•47 min•Season 1Ep. 180
This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued FTX fallout as SBF was taken into custody in the Bahamas on Monday. The collapse of FTX left some investors fleeing from exchanges, particularly Binance, but when compared to previous withdrawal days, there was nothing out of the ordinary. We then go on to discuss Genesis and Tether as more potential risks crypto could face, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://t...
Dec 17, 2022•1 hr 9 min•Season 1Ep. 179
Blockworks just released a new podcast called 1000x! We're dropping the first episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that dives deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss how to think like a crypto trader. They explore how today's market compares to the 2018 bear, where to look...
Dec 15, 2022•54 min
On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?". We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expe...
Dec 14, 2022•1 hr 11 min•Season 1Ep. 178
This week, Mark & Mike discuss the recent market rally and dive into wether this is a new bull cycle, or a classic bear market rally. We then discuss the Alameda venture capital portfolio that was released by the FT walking through the $5.4 Billion of investments on the excel spread sheet. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Foll...
Dec 10, 2022•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 177
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory & Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken join the show to discuss "The Story Arc of SBF, FTX & Alameda". One month ago saw the collapse of SBF's crypto empire as FTX filed for bankruptcy. Ben & Doomberg discuss the ties between SBFs exchange FTX and trading firm Alameda Research. We then look into the use of the FTT token and how SBF was able to raise venture capital money at unrealistic valuations. Was SBF ...
Dec 07, 2022•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 176
This week, Mark & Mike are joined by special guest Joseph Wang for a deep dive on the top stories of the week. SBF spoke at the New York Times Dealbook summit so we share our thoughts on that interview. We then move on to Powell's speech at the Brookings Institution where he hinted at a 50bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Market's rallied after the speech as the expected a more dovish stance from the Fed going forward. What is the outlook for inflation, the job market and what Powell is...
Dec 03, 2022•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 175
Recorded November 30th This conversation is from a Twitter spaces with Erik Voorhees moments after SBF gave his interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the New York Times DealBook summit. Listen On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3B4xe9H Listen On Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM — Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Erik: https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights an...
Dec 02, 2022•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 174
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Bob Elliott CIO of Unlimited Funds joins the show to discuss everything happening in markets right now. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee and created investment strategies, many of which were used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. Having studied previous macroeconomic cycles, Bob states "this is a textbook inflationary cycle". Bob goes on to discuss the new...
Nov 30, 2022•1 hr 19 min•Season 1Ep. 173
Michael and Mark take a break today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and welcome Jack Farley from Forward Guidance onto the podcast for a special cross-over episode. This episode from Forward Guidance is with William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (l...
Nov 26, 2022•1 hr 15 min•Season 1Ep. 172
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Grant Williams & Pippa Malmgren join the show for a discussion of "the end of magical thinking". "The end of magical thinking", a term phrased by Grant to describe the illusion cheap money allowed for in 2020/21 as markets ignored fundamental valuations and speculation became rampant. Now with inflation, and the Fed tightening at their fastest rate in 40 years to fight inflation, reality has set back in for investors and now we must take a hard look in ...
Nov 23, 2022•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 171
This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued fallout of FTX. Genesis, the crypto prime broker, ran into liquidity issues during the week causing many yield providing platforms to reduce their yields to 0%. We discuss what this could mean for CeFi lending providers, and who it could effect next. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_...
Nov 19, 2022•1 hr
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Juliette Declercq Founder of JDI Research joins the show for a discussion on the Fed tightening cycle. Contrary to many analysts, Juliette expects a soft landing in 2023 with the labor market remaining resilient as the Fed continues tightening. Juliette makes the case that inflation will continue to roll over throughout 2022 and into 2023, continuing the recent CPI & PPI prints that beat analyst expectations. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tu...
Nov 16, 2022•51 min•Season 1Ep. 169
This week, Mark & Mike are joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research to discuss the fallout of FTX. Mike, Mark & Jim discuss the series of events leading up to the bankruptcy of FTX and how the events evolved throughout the week. -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market i...
Nov 14, 2022•1 hr 51 min•Season 1Ep. 168
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital & Justin Bons Founder & CIO of Cyber Capital for a Bitcoin debate. Having opposing views on the long term sustainability of Bitcoin, Jordi & Justin debate if Bitcoin has long term staying power and discuss the value propositions of other cryptocurrencies. Does Bitcoin have utility, is it's long term security model sustainable, what are the pros and cons of Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake and is Bitcoin immac...
Nov 09, 2022•1 hr 12 min•Season 1Ep. 167
This week, Mark & Mike discuss the Fed rate hike decision of 75bp. As markets interpreted the announcement as dovish and a catalyst for a small rally in risk assets, Powell's press conference walked back any dovish bias investors had. Powell made clear to markets, they had no intention of slowing down their tightening "until the job is done". All eyes remain on the labor market as an indicator for when the Fed's tightening will begin to materialise. The unemployment data came out as this epi...
Nov 05, 2022•54 min•Season 1Ep. 166
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Darius Dale CEO of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the Fed's tightening cycle. By tracking the effects of liquidity on financial markets, Darius shares his framework for assessing the current tightening cycle the Fed is embarked on in their quest to fight inflation. While 2020 and 2021 saw markets soar to new highs in a liquidity cycle & growth upturn, 2022 has seen the opposite as the liquidity cycle downturns. In order to understand the ma...
Nov 02, 2022•46 min•Season 1Ep. 165
This week, Mark & Mike discuss the sell-off in big tech as earnings and guidance disappoint. With Meta & Amazon down over 20% in after hours just what is big tech signalling to the rest of the market? We then discuss Meta's pivot to the metaverse, wether this is a good long term bet and what is next for big tech? Finally, we discuss what is happening in the Bitcoin mining industry as some mining firms announced being unable to repay their creditors. To hear all the top stories of this we...
Oct 29, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 164
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on China after their 20th party congress. Markets plunged on Monday after Xi Jinping clearly signalled to the world a new era within China. Leland walks through the paradigm shift in China's growth model going forward and how this spills-over into politics, economics, business and everything in between. Expecting a "slower, healthier" level of growth going forward, Leland helps investors ...
Oct 26, 2022•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 163
This week, Mark & Mike discuss everything happening in the crypto markets. As Bitcoin holds steady bouncing around $20,000, should investors expect "crypto spring", or not? Mark shares his insights into the Metcalfe law model that Tim Peterson came on the show in February to discuss. Mark & Mike also discuss Sam Bankman-Fried's proposed DeFi regulation, their broader outlook on the economy & much more. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter...
Oct 22, 2022•59 min•Season 1Ep. 162
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his "Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown" episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022. Since Eric made that call in April, things have accelerated, so we invited Eric back to the show for a discussion on how the most important economic signals are pointing to a further slowdown throughout 2022 and into 2023. What does the record tightening in monetary policy mean for the mos...
Oct 19, 2022•53 min•Season 1Ep. 161
The CPI print just came out, and prices are hot. This week's roundup explores the implications of high inflation, what it means for company earnings and what to expect next. Has the Fed lost control? Is this the fault of current or prior regimes? Where are rates headed? Is QE coming back? Tune in to find out! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Update, Bitcoin Is Still A Volatile Asset (09:46) CPI Print Hot Hot Hot (17:42) Entitlement & Earnings Trouble (23:17) More Rate Hikes? (30:5...
Oct 15, 2022•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 160
As Mike is away on holiday, Blockworks' very own Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, steps in for a discussion on the top stories of the week. On the back of a labor market report, Jack and Mark break down what this means for markets, the outlook for inflation, Ray Dalio's shift in sentiment from his infamous statement "cash is trash" and finally we discuss the turmoil in U.K gilt markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Fo...
Oct 08, 2022•48 min•Season 1Ep. 159
