On today's episode of On The Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show for a discussion on the mounting recessionary headwinds that signal towards a recession in the second half of 2023. Arguing that "a recession is a 2023 story", David walks through the leading indicators that suggest a slowdown could be on the very near horizon. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow O...
Apr 26, 2023•1 hr 10 min•Season 1Ep. 215
This week, Jack Farley host of the Forward Guidance podcast joins the show to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/Jac...
Apr 22, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 214
On today's episode of On The Margin, Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners joins the show to discuss the process of tightening credit in the banking system and what it will mean for the economy and markets. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market ins...
Apr 19, 2023•44 min•Season 1Ep. 213
This week, Mike & Mark discuss the "global wave of liquidity" that has hit markets in recent months. Mark states that China, Japan & the U.S have all contributed to the positive liquidity backdrop which has seen stocks and crypto aggressively rally. We also discuss the recent U.S inflation numbers, what this means for markets & the economy in the coming months. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: ...
Apr 15, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 212
On today's episode of On The Margin Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show to discuss the fallout of SVB's collapse, and the turmoil that ensued in the banking system. Arguing that rates are currently too high for banks, how will the Fed be forced to react whilst managing both financial stability and inflation. To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnThe...
Apr 08, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 211
To view the charts discussed in today's episode, head over to our YouTube here: https://youtu.be/d04D0_WjqEg -- On today's episode of On The Margin, Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity joins the show for a discussion on the current "liquidity limbo" markets find themselves in. Bulls expect recessionary pressures to abide, rate hikes to turn into cuts and financial conditions to loosen whilst the bears foresee an earnings decline, more Fed tightening and a continued tightening of ...
Apr 05, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 210
On today's episode of On The Margin, we welcome Darius Dale Founder & CEO of 42 Macro back to the show to discuss the recent liquidity measures in response to the banking turmoil over the past few weeks. With Markets rallying and investors piling back into the best performing asset's of the past two years, Darius urges caution. While the banking scare of recent weeks doesn't resemble 2008, "don't be a hero". Darius walks through the current liquidity cycle and describes how that could quickl...
Apr 01, 2023•59 min•Season 1Ep. 210
On today's episode of On The Margin, we sit down with James Davolos Portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics and Sholom Jacobs CEO and founder of Jacobs Real Estate Advisors for a discussion on commercial real estate and it's impact on the continued turmoil in the banking sector. With 70% of commercial real estate loans being supplied by small sized regional banks, how will low occupancy levels, higher interest rates and deposit flight to global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) impact the almo...
Mar 29, 2023•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 213
After another week of continued turmoil across the banking sector, Mike and Mark discuss the "crisis of confidence" that is spreading across the banking system. With Deutsche Bank coming into the spotlight towards the end of the week, are the headlines overblown, or could further issues lie ahead for European banks? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter...
Mar 25, 2023•1 hr 15 min•Season 1Ep. 208
On today's episode of On The Margin, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mi...
Mar 22, 2023•1 hr 25 min•Season 1Ep. 207
After another week of continued turmoil across the banking sector, Mike and Mark discuss the developing fallout since Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. This week, Credit Suisse faced record outflows, resulting in a $54 Billion loan from the Swiss National Bank as the bank faces a "crisis of confidence". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppoli...
Mar 18, 2023•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 206
On today's episode of On the Margin, Caitlin Long Founder & CEO at Custodia Bank & Nic Carter Founding Partner at Castle Island Ventures join the show to discuss the recent banking turmoil with the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank which led to the closure of Signature Bank over the weekend. Interest rate risk in HTM portfolios was the key driver of the recent bank runs we have seen, but how have they reverberated all around the world? We then discuss the political backlash ...
Mar 17, 2023•58 min•Season 1Ep. 205
Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- On today's episode of On the Margin, Weston Nakamura, the latest addition to the Blockworks team joins the show to discuss his brand new podcast Market Depth! You can follow the links above to listen to the first episode of Market Depth. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Mike and Weston discuss the market re...
Mar 16, 2023•50 min•Season 1Ep. 204
This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in cr...
Mar 16, 2023•48 min
This week, after a week of turmoil across the banking industry, Mike & Mark discuss the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. With fears mounting over the mark to market value of bank's asset's, we walk through the dynamics which led to depositors running for the exit doors in typical bank run style fashion. What lies ahead for the banking industry from here? Will contagion spread like in 2008, or are banks much better capitalised to weather the storm in 2023? To hear all this and ...
Mar 11, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 203
On today's episode of On the Margin, Shehzad Qazi Managing Director at China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical and secular outlook for the Chinese economy. As China has announced their full reopening, Shehzad is able to walk through the data China beige Book has been able to collect throughout January and February. Expecting a positive year for China, Shehzad walks through both the cyclical and more structural slower growth environment China will experience over the comi...
Mar 08, 2023•43 min•Season 1Ep. 202
This week, as Mark takes some well deserved time off, we combine forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this a...
Mar 04, 2023•57 min•Season 1Ep. 201
On today's episode of On the Margin, Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the Fed, the outlook for earnings and a potential new regime for markets as certain inflation data begins reaccelerating. We also take a look at some of America's great recessions and discuss wether or not they provide good comparisons to 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Cameron: https://twitter.com/CameronDawson Follow Mike: https://tw...
Mar 01, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 200
This week, Mike & Mark begin by discussing the Coinbase Q4 earnings which saw an additional $30 million in revenue than analysts had expected. We break down the balance sheet and compare Coinbase's revenue when operating in bull & bear markets. We then move on to Coinbase's layer-2 announcement, Base. Could this signal a turning point amid crypto winter and how will this impact the crypto developer ecosystem. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: htt...
Feb 25, 2023•1 hr 13 min•Season 1Ep. 199
On today's episode of On the Margin, Vincent Deluard Director of Global Macro at StoneX joins the show for a discussion on the rise of secular inflation. Being early to the inflation call, Vincent walks through the dynamics that allowed him to spot the rise of inflation, and how it will impact the next decade and beyond. We then dive into the role of inflation during a fourth turning and how this could shift the balance back to labor, contrary to the rise of capital during "the great disinflatio...
Feb 22, 2023•50 min•Season 1Ep. 198
This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for inflation in 2023. On the back of a 6.4% YoY CPI, could inflation remain sticky, or will the year ahead be met with a sharp decline in inflation? As "animal spirits" persist in markets, despite the yield curve repricing higher, and the terminal rate along with it, why are markets so intent on fighting the Fed? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitt...
Feb 18, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 197
On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing. Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in 2023. As short term bullish technicals emerge, how should investors position if the long term funda...
Feb 15, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 196
This week, Mike & Mark discuss the SEC crackdown on crypto as Kraken settles for a $30 million fine and agrees to stop it's staking operation. Mark states "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win". As the pressure ramps up on U.S crypto companies, what will this mean for the future of the industry? -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follo...
Feb 11, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 195
On today's episode of On the Margin, Peter Boockvar Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the U.S economy. As markets have rallied to start the year, Peter walks through the state of the U.S economy. With inflation having seemingly peaked, Powell seems confident that disinflation will be the path ahead for 2023. Peter breaks down Powell's recent comments at the press conference last week before di...
Feb 08, 2023•52 min•Season 1Ep. 194
This week, Mike & Mark discuss the week of central bank rate hikes and press conferences. With the Fed, BoE & ECB continuing to raise interest rates, markets attempted to price in an eventual pause in rate hikes. With the S&P 500 up roughly 7% through January 2023, and the most speculative of names rallying the most, reminiscent of 2021, we walk through the liquidity cycle up trend and how the loosening of financial conditions has eased downward pressure on the market to start off th...
Feb 04, 2023•1 hr 13 min•Season 1Ep. 193
On today's episode of On the Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just t...
Feb 01, 2023•1 hr 15 min•Season 1Ep. 192
This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down GDP and earning expectations. US GDP just came in above expectations at 2.9%. Is a soft landing possible, or is the economy holding on by a thread? Mark gives his convincing arguments for the latter. We also take a deep dive into the housing market, corporate earnings, overvalued tech stocks and why all eyes are on Japan. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMargin...
Jan 28, 2023•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 191
On today's episode of On the Margin, Charles Edwards Founder of Capriole Investments joins the show to discuss Bitcoin's place in the current macro cycle. We start with the state of macro and then dive into what inflation, interest rates and the Fed's actions mean for Bitcoin. We hit on frameworks for valuing BTC, Bitcoin's monetary policy and what metrics investors should be watching. Finally, we close with a conversation on Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge and long-term outlook! -- Follow ...
Jan 25, 2023•55 min•Season 1Ep. 190
This week, Mike & Mark are joined by James Davolos Portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics for a debate on all things inflation. At the end of the day, will team transitory will be proven right into 2023? After hearing last weeks episode, James reached out to engage in a friendly debate with Mark as he has a slightly different view on the inflation dynamics into 2023. We then move on to the mounting pressures in housing as KKR, Blackstone & Starwood limit withdrawals to their REIT products...
Jan 21, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 188
On today's episode of On the Margin, Michel Kao joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar and its role in the great power competition. Michael outlines his thesis for an upcoming paper on the U.S Dollar looking at the geopolitical significance of the Dollar and the four key economic pillars of which is stands upon. As many have called for the demise of the U.S Dollar, Michael sees the current rules based order continuing, despite the less favourable policies the U.S has enacted. To hear ...
Jan 18, 2023•1 hr 30 min•Season 1Ep. 188
