In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off with the current state of crypto markets. We next move into the economy, what the Fed is doing, and increasing economic indicators that we are heading towards a recession. Finally we wrap things up with the state of lending and credit in crypto, including the "runs on the bank" that we're seeing at Celsius and similar companies. For Mark and my take there, you'll have to listen to the show. -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMargi...
Jun 25, 2022•50 min•Season 1Ep. 129
SoFi’s Liz Young joins us on today’s episode of “On the Margin” for a post-FOMC rundown. When the Fed abandoned its anticipated 50 bp increase in favor of a 75 bp rate hike on the back of the Department of Labor announcing a higher-than-expected CPI of 8.6%, markets had a violent repricing. Liz, SoFi’s head of investment strategy, walks listeners through the forces driving the Fed’s tightening cycle — she also covers the housing market, “animal spirits,” red flags signaling an earnings recession...
Jun 22, 2022•26 min•Season 1Ep. 128
In this episode, Mark, Dan Tapiero and I discuss the latest FOMC meeting, the 75 basis point raise and the carnage rippling through the markets. Inflation is at record highs but are the FED’s rate hikes a precision tool or a blunt instrument that will cause lasting market damage? We explore the global financial market, crypto’s outlook and the most likely outcome of the bear market. Will the Fed raise rates until the market breaks? Will the money printer turn back on? Tune in to find out! -- Fol...
Jun 18, 2022•1 hr 16 min•Season 1Ep. 127
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer joins the show. As markets were in turmoil on Monday after a surging 8.6% inflation print on Friday, Jurrien joined the show to discuss all the macro forces driving markets. With bond yields spiking, equity markets selling off, crypto getting crushed, credit showing signs of stress and investors fleeing for the exit bidding the U.S Dollar higher, it's clear the "Fed taking away the punch bowl" caught inves...
Jun 15, 2022•53 min•Season 1Ep. 126
In this episode, Mark and I tackle the growing bubble in consumer credit. We take a look at the personal savings rate and compared it to the sudden staggering increase in revolving credit. We discussed the evolution of banking in recent history, the growing and worrisome trend of "Buy Now Pay Later" and Apple's foray into that field, and covered the overall psychology of consumers during a recession. We ended the episode by covering BlockFi's down round, and whether or not we can expect more of ...
Jun 11, 2022•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 125
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang joins the show for a discussion on quantitative tightening. Citing Joseph's most recent piece "Turbo Tightening,” Mike and Joseph walk listeners through the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's balance sheet and the $2 trillion at the reverse repo. They then break down what this means for markets, specifically risk assets. As the Fed begins its quantitative tightening program, Joseph shares the scenarios whic...
Jun 08, 2022•56 min•Season 1Ep. 124
Charts Discussed In Today's Episode: https://bit.ly/3Q4P4zA In this week's episode, Mike and Mark get into a subject that is near and dear to everyone's heart: layoffs. The episode begins by getting into the raw numbers: initial and continuing jobless claims, the change in recent reports from ADP, and the record number of mentions of "hiring freeze" from CEOs. Next Mike and Mark cover how monetary policy and liquidity translate to demand and hiring needs at company. They cover things from the in...
Jun 04, 2022•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 123
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” David Rosenberg joins the show to discuss the mounting risk of recession. Investors are battling with the highest inflation the US has seen in 40 years. PMIs are contracting in China, M2 growth is turning negative, and consumers have begun to reign in spending. David forecasts a substantial economic slowdown and sees the threat of recession creeping closer — he also predicts a surprise shock that markets have yet to realize. Is a deflationary sucker punch o...
Jun 01, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 122
The On The Margin weekly round up returns! After a busy week in Palm Beach for the Blockworks event Permissionless, your favourite weekly round up is back to discuss the biggest stories in markets. Mike and Mark focus on tackling the narratives that were popular during the bull market to see how they are holding up during 2022's unwind. Can the Fed raise rates considering the amount of outstanding debt the US has, are we really in a supercycle, how will the bear market compare to previous market...
May 28, 2022•58 min•Season 1Ep. 121
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Ben Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse joins the show to discuss the crypto winter and bear market many investors are experiencing. As sentiment shifts, Bitcoin dominance begins rising & macro forces drive widely viewed risk assets lower, Ben gives a measured & data driven analysis of the fundamentals driving Bitcoin and crypto more broadly. Should we expect more pain to come or are investors preparing for a bottom in the near future? To find out, y...
May 25, 2022•59 min•Season 1Ep. 120
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Steve Van Metre joins the show to discuss Fed chair Powell's plan to crash the stock market in 2022. With soaring inflation, the Fed embarks on its plan to tighten financial conditions at an accelerating pace with stock holders being the number one target. Steve also discusses the state of the bond market, signs of a looming recession, when we may see a market bottom, peak inflation and how a rising dollar could effect all of these scenarios the Fed is face...
May 18, 2022•45 min•Season 1Ep. 119
In this week's episode, Mark and I focus primarily on one story: the depegging of UST and evaporation of Luna. We cover a brief overview of UST, what the algorithmic model was that underpinned it, and what caused it to come undone. We also got into the aftermath of an explosion like this, and the contagion that could spread out into the ecosystem. We also discussed what new entrants to crypto should expect in a bear market, the current state of Coinbase, and Elon Musk's decision to "pause" his b...
May 14, 2022•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 118
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins the show to discuss the Fed’s dilemma. With markets selling off in reaction to one of the fastest hiking cycles in recent history, Peter explains how current inflation rates have "put the Fed in handcuffs.” Peter shares his outlook for both the stock and bond markets, answering the questions: Where is the Fed put in this cycle? Will the Fed be forced to reverse course if problems ari...
May 11, 2022•45 min•Season 1Ep. 117
In this episode, Mark and I are focused on answering one question: what is going on with markets? We kick things off with a quick summary of the equity and bond markets, both of which are having some of their worst starts to the year ever. In the case of the US 10 year, YTD performance through April is the worst it's been since 1778! Next we moved onto three unsustainable states of being in the market today: 1) equity valuations 2) debt to GDP and 3) wealth inequality. We discussed each of these...
May 07, 2022•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 116
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” founder and managing director of DeFi Advisors Michael Nicoletos shares the macro forces driving the dollar higher. As risk mounts, recession warnings loom, and investors take flight for safe haven assets, it's no wonder the dollar finds itself rallying past March 2020 highs. With an expertise in FX markets, Michael shares how the dollar wrecking ball will impact the global economy, particularly emerging markets, as growth continues to slow and the world sc...
May 04, 2022•43 min•Season 1Ep. 115
In this episode, Mark and I started off with an old topic that is just resurfacing: the criminal charges being levied against ex-Tiger Cub Bill Hwang. Next we moved onto the slowing growth in GDP, precipitous rise of the DXY, and the damage being done to tech stocks compared to crypto. Finally we ended things on Fidelity's decision to allow 401K participants to include Bitcoin and the Labor Department's response. For that take, you'll need to tune into the episode. -- Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYus...
Apr 30, 2022•58 min•Season 1Ep. 114
On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale gives listeners the details on his four horsemen of market risk signals and what they tell us about potential hazards brewing in the market. Along with host Michael Ippolito, Darius walks us through his point of view on the Fed’s inflation fears, the Bank of Japan’s reinstatement of yield curve control, and warning signs coming out of China. They also speculate on the 40-year bull run on the bond market: Could we soon be...
Apr 27, 2022•57 min•Season 1Ep. 113
In this episode, Mark and I kick things off with Netflix's earnings. After posting their first ever subscriber loss, the stock tumbled nearly 40% costing recent investor Bill Ackman $430 Million in just three months. We covered what this recent sell-off might portent for tech stocks moving forward. After Netflix we moved on to discuss the Yen and it's rapid slide against the dollar. Mark gave some color as to why the Yen functions as a reserve asset for global investors, and what its depreciatio...
Apr 23, 2022•49 min•Season 1Ep. 112
On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by Blockdaemon CEO & Founder Konstantin Richter to discuss the rise & fall of crypto culture. When sentiment shifts in crypto markets, founders build conviction. Konstantin reminds us of previous cycles & shares why he has never been more optimistic on the future of crypto than right now. Mike & Konstantin also discuss the founding of Blockdaemon, the pro's & con's in centralization vs decentralization, the outlook ...
Apr 20, 2022•45 min•Season 1Ep. 111
In this week's episode, we started off with a recap of Bitcoin Miami from Mark. Next we launched into March's record breaking CPI print, and where Mark sees inflation heading from here. Next we moved into PPI (Producer Price Index) and PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index), what those economic indicators mean, and what they can tell us about the next 18 months of growth. We took a look at food inflation, various asset prices, and how investors should be thinking about the volatile environment we find...
Apr 16, 2022•54 min•Season 1Ep. 110
On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen and Alfonso Peccatiello for a special announcement: Their new podcast “The Macro Trading Floor” will be launching Sunday, April 17th on the Blockworks network with a VERY special guest. To stay up to date with the new show, subscribe here: apple.co/38Maf8f With inflation soaring over 8%, bond markets selling off, and the Fed turning increasingly hawkish, Andreas and Alfonso explain how to maneuver the market duri...
Apr 13, 2022•29 min•Season 1Ep. 109
In this episode I am joined by my colleagues and special guest hosts Jack Farley and Byron Gilliam. We went through a whole range of topics today, beginning with the bond market. We gave everyone an update on the rate hikes that the market is pricing in (spoiler alert: it's a lot), the historic rout happening at the long end of the curve, and how the Fed is likely to respond. We also discussed how to play a bond sell off, and the "risk vs reward" of investing in risk assets at the current time. ...
Apr 09, 2022•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 108
On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. After correctly identifying signs of decelerating growth months ahead of most, Eric comes back to the podcast to share how he forecast the economic slowdown. As the yield curve inverts, GDP numbers begin downward revisions and investors deal with soaring prices across the whole commodity complex. Eric lays out the major warning signs that can help identify cyclical chang...
Apr 06, 2022•59 min•Season 1Ep. 107
In todays On The Margin weekly roundup, Mark & I begin by discussing the 2yr 10yr yield curve inversion. Is the bond market signalling a recession on the horizon? What will this mean for other asset classes such as stocks, commodities & crypto? We then transition to discussing the work from home dynamic and whether employees will cause an exodus out of big cities, whilst demanding the same wages. What does this mean for the labor market throughout 2022 & beyond? Finally, we dive into...
Apr 02, 2022•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 106
In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Mike McGlone, the Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. With 20+ years in the industry as a Trader, Analyst & Strategist, Mike offers a unique perspective on the forces driving global markets, with particular expertise on global commodity markets. As war between Russia & Ukraine continues, we invited Mike back to On The Margin to share his insights into how continued conflict effects wheat, oil, ...
Mar 30, 2022•51 min•Season 1Ep. 105
In this episode, Mark and I got deep into the biggest stories of the week. We covered the rising costs of oil, and the $11 billion and $16.5 billion relief packages from California and Germany. We also got into recent comments from Ray Dalio of Bridgewater and Larry Fink of Blackrock embracing crypto, but why that might not be as sunny as it first may seem. And finally we closed the session out on where we currently are in crypto's market cycle. For that discussion, you'll need to tune into the ...
Mar 26, 2022•43 min•Season 1Ep. 104
In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest & former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark of Russell Clark Investment Management. After spending over a decade as an Investment Manager, Russell joins On The Margin to discuss the period of change we find ourselves in. From trends in inflation to the evolution of market structure & reliance on clearing houses, Russell provides a big picture macro framework for thinking about markets, & the world more broadly....
Mar 23, 2022•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 103
In this week's round up, Mark and I were joined by special guest Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. Among many other things, Brent is famous for his "dollar milkshake theory," which is his view of what a sovereign debt crisis will look like in the future. Brent kicked things off by giving us a rehash of the milkshake theory and his thoughts on what the dollar may do over the course of the next decade. Next we dug deep into the US - China relationship, and got Mark's and Brent's views on who is w...
Mar 19, 2022•52 min•Season 1Ep. 102
In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Neil Howe Author of the best-selling book The Fourth Turning. Cycles often resurge throughout history, booms & busts, highs & lows, ascending & descending empires. We often forget history is full of these recurring cycles, thats why we invited Neil Howe to On The Margin, an expert on generational cycles to the show to discuss what the cycles of history tell us about America's next rendezvous with destiny. Neil provides his a...
Mar 17, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 101
In this week's episode, Mark and I covered two topics: Biden's execurive order on crypto, and inflation data. We kicked things off with the Biden's executive order. We covered what it actually is, what it isn't, and which agencies the order referred to. After that, we took a deep dive into February's inflation print. We also took a look at the rising cost of oil and how that impacts economies. Mark gave us a bit of a history lesson in terms by comparing today's oil shock with the one from the 19...
Mar 12, 2022•40 min•Season 1Ep. 100
