On today's episode of "On the Margin", Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners for a discussion on the hyper-financialization of the U.S economy, and how that trend may now be in reverse. Looking back at historic periods of both monetary and fiscal policy being enacted together, Julian was able to identify the trend of inflation at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Since positioning for the equity market correction towards the back end of 2021, Julian shares his thoughts ...
Oct 05, 2022•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 160
Recorded on Monday 26th: Before the BoE's Gilt announcement On today's episode of "On the Margin", Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg joins the the show for a wide ranging discussion. As the U.S Dollar continues rising, markets are beginning to crack. Is there any end in sight for economies around the world? We also discuss what is happening in energy, commodity and crypto markets. How will oil perform ahead of mid term elections in the U.S? Is gold set for a move higher? And ...
Sep 30, 2022•46 min•Season 1Ep. 157
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken, joins the the show for an update on the European energy crisis. After making bold claims throughout 2021 on the global energy situation, and particularly in Europe, Doomberg provides an update on the state of the European energy crisis. How severe will the impact of high energy prices be for Europe ahead of winter, particularly global manufacturing hubs such as Germany? Finally, Doomberg discusses the effect of en...
Sep 28, 2022•47 min•Season 1Ep. 128
As central banks around the world further increased interest rates, everyone looked to the most important central bank in markets, and that's the Fed. Powell raised by an expected 75bp on Wednesday, signalling "it will be enough". Markets were confused after the initial announcement, but selling increased hours after the announcement, not holding up until Friday's session. Are markets bracing for a hard landing? To find out, you'll just have to tune in! -- Get top market insights and the latest ...
Sep 24, 2022•49 min•Season 1Ep. 155
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jack Farley, friend of the show and Host of another Blockworks podcast “Forward Guidance”, joins the show for a discussion on the central banking super bowl. As over 20 central banks around the world decide their key policy rates this week, including the Fed, BoE & SNB, we invited Jack to the show to share his thoughts on what this means for equities, bonds & most importantly inflation. In Jack’s mind, there was no doubt the Fed was “behind the curv...
Sep 21, 2022•46 min•Season 1Ep. 154
After uniting at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Mike & Mark are back to reflect on the conference and dive into the top stories of the week. Markets had their biggest one day sell-off in almost 2 years due to a higher than expected inflation print, FedEX CEO Raj Subramaniam warns of a "worldwide recession" and the Ethereum merge is successfully deployed. Luckily Mike & Mark are on hand to break it all down, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Get top market insights and th...
Sep 17, 2022•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 153
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the Fed and the policy decisions they face throughout 2022 & into 2023. Last time Danielle joined the show, it was January, at the beginning of the year, as it had become clear the Fed stayed too loose, for too long. In that conversation, we discussed what Fed rate hikes would mean for the economy, markets, inflation & housing. Now, nine mont...
Sep 14, 2022•45 min•Season 1Ep. 152
This week we discuss one of the biggest news stories in crypto markets as investors await one of the most anticipated events in years, the Ethereum merge. As many grapple with the bull & bear case for the Eth merge, Mark & Mike discuss how they see the merge playing out from their perspective. Could this be a classic case of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/...
Sep 10, 2022•49 min•Season 1Ep. 151
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Dario Perkins MD of global macro at TS Lombard joins the show for a discussion on the new macro supercycle. As de-globilization increasingly becomes one of the key forces driving markets, Dario walks through one of his recent pieces titled "The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks". Drawing historical comparisons between today's economy with both the 1940's & 1970's, Dario describes the setup we now have for a new macro regime, and how central banks are...
Sep 07, 2022•48 min•Season 1Ep. 150
Mark returns on this episode of the round up, and after briefly discussing the matter with Jack last week, I decided to check in with Mark on his thoughts on the US Bond Market. We transition then into talking about the housing market, the soaring fixed mortgage rates, and the lag in home prices that follows. Next I get Mark's thoughts on the recent bear rally, before closing out our round up with mixed feelings on the recent decision about student debt forgiveness. -- Attend DAS, crypto and mac...
Sep 03, 2022•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 149
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Michael Howell CEO of Crossborder Capital joins the show for a discussion on the number one force driving markets, liquidity. Discussing Michael's book titled "Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity", Howell walks through the role of global liquidity, increasing debt and volatility on today's financial system. Have these three factors made our financial system more susceptible to central bank intervention and financial crises? Tune in to hear this discu...
Aug 31, 2022•51 min•Season 1Ep. 148
Blockworks just released a new podcast called Bell Curve! We're dropping the pilot episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. Season one of Bell Curve revolves around our DeFi credit boom thesis. Simply put, CeFi's implosion will create a DeFi credit boom that will bring new users and fixed-rate lending markets to DeFi. What products will be created? Who will be the users of these products? Where will capital flow first? These are a few of the questions we'll expl...
Aug 30, 2022•10 min•Season 1Ep. 149
This week we're joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley! We begin by discussing our takes on the recent announcement concerning student loan forgiveness, before pivoting to what we predict will be heard at the Jackson Hole meeting. After that we move into a discussion about energy prices in Europe, with Germany as a focal point. Jack then speaks on the state of China's real estate market. Finally we round out the episode with talks of the bad start to bonds this year and what the means for the ...
Aug 27, 2022•57 min•Season 1Ep. 147
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar's role in the global economy. After spending the past number of years outlining his thesis and the importance energy plays in being the global reserve currency issuer, now was the perfect time to get Luke back on the show to break down some of the tectonic geopolitical changes that have occurred throughout 2022. From energy shortages in Europ...
Aug 24, 2022•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 146
In this week's episode, Mark and I discuss the repercussions of the Fed’s attempt to contrive certainty in financial markets. We start the discussion by looking at the US’ long-term GDP growth. The chart looks great, but is the Fed’s market manipulation setting us up for a surprise? Inflation and record-high debt are just two symptoms of the Fed’s attempt to create certainty in entropic markets. We then talk about this week’s FOMC minutes and reflect on current market conditions. Why are certain...
Aug 20, 2022•54 min•Season 1Ep. 145
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory and Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion around one of Ben's recent articles "Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World". Ben and Mike compare household net worth and GDP which substantially diverged post 1990 when Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman. Post Greenspan saw Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell take the role of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Ben hi...
Aug 17, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 144
In this week's episode, Mark and I cover this week's CPI print, the state of macro, Coinbase’s earnings miss, and a historical US ban on an Ethereum privacy protocol. We start with a discussion on the lower-than-expected CPI print, deglobalization and ask if the FED still thinks they can provide a soft landing. We then dive into Coinbase’s Q2 earnings and $1B reported loss. Can Coinbase establish a sustainable business model? The numbers don’t look great, but there’s reason to believe they can t...
Aug 13, 2022•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 143
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital joins the show to discuss how inflation is driving demand for UBI. We begin discussing Jordi's outlook for the rest of 2022 with a major focus on the U.S Dollar and how the rising dollar could lead to liquidity problems. Drawing parallels to 2020, when the Fed extended U.S Dollar swap lines all around the world, Jordi explains how this dynamic could further exacerbate the publics demand for UBI. We then close the discus...
Aug 10, 2022•49 min•Season 1Ep. 141
In this week's episode, Mark and I are joined by Zaheer Ebitkar of Ledger Prime to cover a very important question: is the crypto bottom in? Zaheer walked us through one of the most important drivers of liquidity and price action in crypto markets today: stablecoins. We discussed the different type of stables that exist in the market today, how they impact liquidity conditions, and how different stablecoin models are likely to be regulated. Finally we asked Zaheer whether or not the bottom was o...
Aug 06, 2022•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 141
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Amy Wu of FTX Ventures joins the show for a discussion on the venture capital industry both in traditional markets and crypto. After an explosion in VC funding throughout 2021, how have current market conditions effected private markets throughout 2022? As investors reconsider the valuations they are willing to pay compared to 2021, just how has this influenced funding in crypto? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Amy Wu: https://twitter.com/amy...
Aug 03, 2022•44 min•Season 1Ep. 140
In this week's episode, we discuss the Fed's attempt to crush all consumer demand. Mark believes we've just entered crypto spring, but that enthusiasm takes a turn as we discuss the Fed. With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we can officially (or now unofficially) say we are in a recession. I got Mark's take on the Fed's actions, expected fallout and future CPI prints. Next, we discuss the US' "friend-shoring" efforts, failed sanctions and other policy mishaps. Finally, we added ...
Jul 30, 2022•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 139
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lawrence Lepard and Brent Johnson join Mike to discuss the dark side of a strong US dollar. We start with an overview of the US Dollar's role as the global reserve currency and how the dollar system is causing many of the problems we have today. Can the US dollar maintain its reserve status or are things falling apart? Then, Lawrence and Brent explain how a strong US dollar is causing weakness throughout the global economy - abroad and at home. Brent shares...
Jul 27, 2022•53 min•Season 1Ep. 138
In this week's episode, we discuss everyone's favorite subject: the bear market. I got Mark's take on the current bear, how it compares to previous bear markets in crypto, and what we should expect over the coming year. Next, we took a look at who has been selling Bitcoin in May and June. The largest (forced) seller was the Luna Foundation Guard, closely followed by Elon Musk's Tesla. We spent some time discussing Tesla's sale and why Elon may have decided to do that today. Next, we explain why ...
Jul 23, 2022•46 min•Season 1Ep. 137
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022. We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity markets throughout 2022? To find out, you'll have to tune! -- Follow Mr. Blonde: https://twitter.com/M...
Jul 20, 2022•43 min•Season 1Ep. 136
In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the Bitcoin market. Could crypto winter be passing and signs of crypto spring be starting to emerge? We then move on to discuss the historic value of equities going all he way back to 1871 vs now in 2022. With still elevated P/E's, is there more pain to come for equities despite rising rates? We draw parallels between the 2001 tech bubble which also saw high energy prices, a rising dollar and rising yields. Finally, we break down the ...
Jul 16, 2022•39 min•Season 1Ep. 135
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show. Lyn begins by explaining the energy shock she spotted in 2021 walking through her most recent piece "Energy: The Area Under the Curve". Lyn then shares her outlook on the U.S Dollar wrecking ball as the DXY breaches 20 year highs trading over 108. How will a rising U.S Dollar effect the chances of a recession, stress in credit markets and more importantly U.S treasury market liquidity? Could this be...
Jul 13, 2022•49 min•Season 1Ep. 134
In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the recent volatility in crypto markets. We then move on to discussing the bailouts in crypto by SBF and the comparisons between CeFi vs DeFi. Mark and I then touch on the Fed's quantitative tightening & balance sheet reduction, rising interest rates, record high inflation and how tightening into a recession is causing political strife across the globe discussing some very striking headlines over the past week. Finally, we touch o...
Jul 09, 2022•51 min•Season 1Ep. 133
On today's episode of "On the Margin," Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show for a discussion on inflation. Arguing that we are "entering an era of persistent inflation", Jim walks through the biggest winners in this market environment. After correctly predicting the Fed's hawkish stance ahead of most analysts, Jim shares his thoughts on the bond market pricing in a pivot throughout 2023. Jim goes on to walk through the bond market turmoil with the worst H1 performance being recorded sinc...
Jul 06, 2022•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 132
With Mark out, we have special guest filling in, Blockworks’ own Jack Farley, macro researcher and host of the Forward Guidance podcast. Jack explains how three recent events have made him think that a recession is more likely: moves in interest rates that suggest the Fed might pivot earlier than previously anticipated; the sharp fall in copper, cotton, and other commodity prices; and, most importantly, a forecast from the Atlanta Fed that real GDP for the U.S. will be negative. Mike then makes ...
Jul 02, 2022•30 min•Season 1Ep. 131
On today’s episode of “On the Margin” Sid Powell Co Founder of Maple Finance joins the show to discuss the recent credit contagion taking place in crypto. With liquidity drying up in crypto & markets at large, deleveraging & liquidations have been taking place across the board. Sid joins the show to discuss the recent risk-off sentiment in markets and explains the differences between CeFi and DeFi lending. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Sid: https://twitter.com/syrup...
Jun 29, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 130
