Spinning off from a recent piece for the Spectator , I look at Dmitri Medvedev's decline and fall, from technocratic liberal hope to peddler of toxic anti-Western vitriol, and what this tells us about late Putinism: the hawkish turn, chameleonic politics, the need for scarecrows and the downside of Putin's loyalty. The Spectator piece is here You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusi...
Mar 26, 2023•46 min•Ep. 94
Isn't it time to scrap the term 'oligarch'? In Russia - as perhaps, not in Ukraine - the time when rich people able to assert power because of their wealth (as opposed to getting wealthy because of their power) seems long gone. And a justice vs pragmatism question: will the International Criminal Court's decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin on war crimes charges, help the cause of peace? Sadly, although I don't think there is any doubt he is a war criminal, I fear not. You can also ...
Mar 19, 2023•45 min•Ep. 93
Why did Budapest 2023 remind me of Moscow 2007? Are Hungary or China 'pro-Russia'? What can we read into pro-Ukrainian neo-Nazi incursions into Russia and Kadyrov's claims that he wants to set up a mercenary company? And speaking of which, what on earth is PMC Ryodan? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Mar 05, 2023•56 min•Ep. 92
Putin has finally set a date for his annual address to the Federal Assembly, 21 February. He will likely try to tread the balance between scaring and reassuring his audience, but it takes place at a time when there is evidence of the security state digging in for the long haul, not least with a reshuffle at the Security Council Secretariat. In the second half, I talk about Russian scifi, especially of the imperialist variety, and what we can learn from it. For those interested, I write about the...
Feb 11, 2023•53 min•Ep. 91
The apparent hit on a Russian rightist, propagandist, and self-styled "swindler and mercenary" raises a range of questions about coordination in the Russian forces, the role of Evgeny Prigozhin and Russia's slide back towards the 'wild 90s.' Still, that's a better prospect than Putin's repeated invocation of the 1940s, most recently at the 80th anniversary of the battle of Stalingrad... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain...
Feb 05, 2023•51 min•Ep. 90
What does it mean that Western-designed tanks will now be supplied to Ukraine, and what - if any - potential responses does Putin have? At the very least, it will be used to hammer home the new notion of the 'New Patriotic War,' in an attempt to provide a rationalisation for totalitarianism. However, any unity imposed is just superficial - as the recent spat between Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin and Evgeny Prigozhin illustrates, there are growing divisions within the system. The Tsargrad article on Dug...
Jan 29, 2023•57 min•Ep. 89
So what might it mean for Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to be made the new overall commander of Russian operations in Ukraine? I suspect Putin is impatient for some kind of victory - and if Gerasimov absolutely has to provide it, then he will need to find some form of escalation. Details of the Chelsea Society event on 16 January I mentioned are here , and the Lewes Speakers Festival event on the 22nd (lots of other interesting authors, by the way) is here . You can also follow my blog, I...
Jan 12, 2023•47 min•Ep. 88
A collection of topics: Putin's rather bellicose New Year Address and what to make of it, the limits of Russian politics, what to make of Medvedev's and Prigozhin's bizarre statements, and some good news, especially for those who consider Peruvian shaman to be soothsayers... The Russian cyber report I mentioned is here , Prigozhin's latest broadside is here , and news of the Peruvian shaman (in Russian) is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's ...
Jan 01, 2023•55 min•Ep. 87
Is Putin contemplating fleeing to Venezuela? Is Medvedev more powerful than Patrushev? Does it make sense to decolonise Russia? Is a maverick spook spilling the beans on Putin's personal life? As a lack of hard information on inner Kremlin politics generates rumours and assumptions to fill the data vacuum, I ponder our analytic biases. The survey of 100 top politicians is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain questio...
Dec 10, 2022•36 min•Ep. 86
What broader lessons about the changing nature of war, peace and power can we draw from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict? A more conceptual and rambling episode than usual... The Meduza article on FSO polling I mentioned is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Dec 04, 2022•55 min•Ep. 85
My own contribution to the current discussion about how Putin tries to use and abuse history, and how he doesn't even get Russian history right. And, after the break, the costs of the war to Russia and the all-too-often overlooked (not least by Putin) regional dimension. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Nov 20, 2022•1 hr•Ep. 84
A fresh batch of Patrons' questions, clustered around Putin, his influences (no, Ivan Ilyin is not his guru) and decision-making; and then in the second half, how are the effects of invasion and sanctions reshaping Russian organised crime? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Nov 13, 2022•54 min•Ep. 83
In the first part of the podcast, I address the first batch of questions put to me by my Patrons, including Prigozhin's authority and whether Putin really believes some of the increasingly bizarre nonsense that is being spouted by his officials. In the second part, I explore whether Russia might be tempted to follow North Korea in establishing a 'ministry of organised crime.' Oh, and do buy my new book Putin's Wars ! The ECFR Crimintern report I mention (from 2017) is here . You can also follow ...
Nov 06, 2022•53 min•Ep. 82
In the first segment, I touch on some of the latest news stories: Ukraine's drone attack on Sevastopol and the ending of the grain deal; will Russian withdraw from Kherson; and what Russians think. In the second half, I pivot to exploring the complex intelligence relationship between Russia and China and why, whatever the talk of a 'friendship without limits,' at least in the secret realm they are not frenemies maybe but frivals... The recording of the talk at George Washington's Institute for E...
Oct 30, 2022•40 min•Ep. 81
I'm back after a month of travels, and what a month it's been. In this longer-than-usual catch-up episode, I look at its main developments, including annexations, mobilisation, martial law and political machinations. And how Sergei Kirienko admitted that this was not a popular war... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Oct 22, 2022•1 hr•Ep. 80
Military analysts often talk about the way forces seek to 'impose dilemmas' in their enemy on the battlefield. The extraordinary Ukrainian advance from Kharkiv is imposing a series of dilemmas both military and, more importantly, political on Putin. And, faced with a choice of difficult options, none of which look especially palatable, he is doing what he usually does: dodge the hard decisions, dig in and hope things work out. From tactical nukes and mobilisation to why bother with increasingly ...
Sep 16, 2022•44 min•Ep. 79
It's Labo(u)r Day here in DC, so I look at the - pretty poor - state of organised labour in Russia, but also the hints that coming economic pressures could help encourage some solidarity and lateral connections, key to effective civil society. My post 'Mikroraion Life' in my Travels in Deepest Muscovy blog on life in Kotel'niki is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive ex...
Sep 05, 2022•36 min•Ep. 78
A short, one-segment piece in which I consider one of the less widely-discussed aspects of Gorbachev's legacy (and quite why he sat so uncomfortably for the present regime): that he stood for hope (however naive or badly-executed sometimes) rather than the victimhood at the heart of Putin's message. My snap appreciation of Gorbachev is here , and Leon Aron's obit is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-aski...
Sep 01, 2022•17 min•Ep. 77
How far is the Kremlin grappling with the problem of power and relevance: it has made promises, it issues decree, but is it really able to achieve any more at home than in the stalemate in Ukraine? Does Putin's recent decree on expanding the military mean more than just more Potemkin politics? And as a result, are more and more elements of Russian society seeing the regime as incapable, creating a dangerous potential threat? In the second half, Liz Truss, the UK's likely next prime minister, has...
Aug 28, 2022•58 min•Ep. 76
Continuing from last episode, in which I postulate that Russia is now in the grip of 'Putinism-Patrushevism,' I look at what this has meant for Defence Minister Shoigu - and how his return to high-profile public politics suggest he has been forced to adapt to the new era of constant conflict. How can this help illuminate what the ingredients of power in late Putinism may be? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-as...
Aug 15, 2022•54 min•Ep. 75
I play around with the concept of Putinism-Patrushevism, that while Putin's broad ambitions may be pretty consistent over time, quite how they are understood and meant to be achieved varies over time depending on who has most influence with him - and now, sadly, it's Nikolai Patrushev, leading to the current state of the country. (I float this idea in this Sunday Times piece). The earlier podcast in which I label Patrushev 'the most dangerous man in Russia' is here , by the way. You can also fol...
Jul 31, 2022•50 min•Ep. 74
The final batch of patrons' and listeners' questions answered - sometimes better than others - on everything from Ekaterina Schulmann's "reverse cargo cult" thesis to the flaws of liberal politics, Naryshkin's fumbles to naval dilemmas in the Ukraine war. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Jul 17, 2022•59 min•Ep. 73
I look at the career of Igor Girkin, better known as Strelkov, the ultra-nationalist who has turned against Putin - but gets away with it. What does it tell us about Russian politics? In the second half, I read the coda added to later editions of my book 'We Need To Talk About Putin' to reflect the invasion of Ukraine and expand on a few points in it. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access t...
Jul 10, 2022•55 min•Ep. 72
After tackling three of recent developments worth noting - the evolving military command structure of the war, Sergei Kirienko's role and the emergence of the war economy - I tackle a dozen listeners' questions, from how the conflict is affecting Putin's thoughts about his future, to whether monarchy could return... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right he...
Jul 02, 2022•59 min•Ep. 71
Something of a magazine episode. In the first half I talk about my being banned from Russia ( here 's the Foreign Ministry announcement), Putin at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Lavrov interviewed by the BBC (see more here ) and Pertsev's recent article about the elite in Meduza ( here ). In the second half, I tackle a range of questions from listeners, broadly about geopolitics. A reminder, if you have a question you want me to address, send it to me by Monday 20 June, either t...
Jun 18, 2022•47 min•Ep. 70
In the first part of this slightly rambling episode, I develop on a theme I covered for the Sunday Times ( here ) on whether Moscow will move beyond annexing the Donbas and Lugansk People's Republics and actually seek to grab more territories. And why on earth might anything think this a good idea? One such might be Sergei Kirienko, the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration, who ought to know better but may have his reasons, So in the second half I look at this product of the 1990...
Jun 13, 2022•51 min•Ep. 69
Good news and bad news? Anyway, in the first part I explore what's happening in the Donbas, why it is far too soon to talk of Russia 'winning' and the signs it is digging in for the long haul, and looking for things to call victories. In the second part, I return to the vexed question of a coup against Putin, and why it is so unlikely - unless and until there is a serious crisis that poses a real threat to elite interests and forces them to make a choice. (And why it matters who has been appoint...
May 29, 2022•46 min•Ep. 68
When are Russians really going to start feeling the pressure of the shooting war in Ukraine and the economic/political one with the West? I explain why I think September is when they will really start to feel it. In the second part, I read the coda written for the paperback edition of my Short History of Russia (out now, and a bargain!) And apologies for some sound issues with background noise, that I could not edit out... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the ...
May 18, 2022•47 min•Ep. 67
A week before Victory Day, I consider some different constituencies' notions of victories. For Patrushev and the hard-liners, they could win politically not despite failing in the war, but thanks to it. Nuclear rhetoric may be scary, but it is also a reflection not of victory but failure. The war and sanctions are reshaping the opportunities in the Russian underworld, and this create new winners and losers. And what does Patriarch Kirill hope to win? The Moscow Times piece I mentioned is here . ...
May 01, 2022•54 min•Ep. 66
For an experimental change in format, this episode is given over to a long conversation with Fabian Burkhardt of IOS-Regensburg, who works on Russian elites, institutions and authoritarian politics. He gives his sense on the state and loyalties of the elites, on the chances of any kind of palace coups, and the degree to which we are all flailing around in the fog of (info)war. As for relevant publications of Fabian's on the topic of the podcast: " Institutionalising Authoritarian Presidencies: P...
Apr 22, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 65
