Who is General Dvornikov, the new Russian operational commander for the war in Ukraine? Will Prime Minister Mishustin and the other technocrats be able to prevent the militarisation of the Russian economy? Four scenarios for the war. And why it's all about 'enemies' versus 'traitors' for Putin now... The piece on Rusich I mentioned is here , and the Telegraph piece is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-as...
Apr 16, 2022•52 min•Ep. 64
Another brief and unedited podcast trying to track some of the latest Ukraine-related Russian stories, all distinctly depressing: - the war crimes of Bucha (and the Kirill Shamiev twitter thread I mentioned is here ) - comparing Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir (Putin) the Pretty Terrible Too - the dilemmas for ordinary Russians - and why today's support may not be tomorrow's (the Farida Rustamova piece I mention is here ) You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the po...
Apr 03, 2022•28 min•Ep. 63
A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine: - the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas - where's Shoigu? - fear and loathing in the National Guard - a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really) You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Mar 26, 2022•29 min•Ep. 62
Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean. In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of the FSB is under arrest and the hints of opening divisions in the security apparatus, as well as the wider...
Mar 12, 2022•47 min•Ep. 61
What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights an...
Feb 27, 2022•31 min•Ep. 60
It may well be, as US/UK leaders are saying, that it is too late, that Putin is determined to wage war on Ukraine, but even as we assiduously wargame the potential routes of advance and attack, we should continue to try and peacegame, too, to apply the same imagination to framing any potential settlement. It would be exquisitely difficult and complex, but right up until the tanks cross the border, we ought to try. Today, I try and sketch out some thoughts as to what such a deal - one that does n...
Feb 20, 2022•32 min•Ep. 59
With Schrodinger's War both imminent and unthinkable there is, to be blunt, only so much that can usefully be said about Russia and Ukraine. I start with a few observations on whether insiders are trying to warn Putin off escalation and what it means if Russia does launch a full-scale invasion (in short, welcome the Brezhnevian stagnation and the rule of the hawks), before turning to some listener questions. Specifically, why Russia is so good at hacking the international system, whether it will...
Feb 14, 2022•33 min•Ep. 58
I spin a post on the Nezygar Telegram channel out to explore the current uncertain state of play over Ukraine, covering topics from the current US claims of what its intelligence says about both Zelenskyy and Putin to whether recognising the Donbas pseudo-states is being floated in Moscow precisely as an escape route. In the second segment, I tackle some of the requests for predictions sent in by Patrons and offer what turn out to be some disappointingly unexciting responses. The article on Mins...
Jan 30, 2022•53 min•Ep. 57
One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later. A Christmas tale of villainy and corruption. There are all kinds of rumours about embezzlement and theft at a state bank, but the directors swear blind that all is fine. The chief teller is clearly rich beyond his means, and his wife is never seen but that she is dripping with diamonds, but no one sees fit to enquire further. Eventually, when it turns out that the bank h...
Jan 28, 2022•11 min
One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later. Who is Lt. Gen. Dmitry Mironov? It may prove worth knowing about this bodyguard-turned-governor-turned-presidential-aide, in effect Putin's eyes and ears over the security forces, and now you can spend just 13 minutes and feel that you do! How being a bodyguard and an ice hockey player can be one of the best routes to success in Putin's Russia. You can also follow my blo...
Jan 24, 2022•13 min
After the Blinken-Lavrov talks, a brief one-segment podcast with a few thoughts on the current state of the dialogue, the risks of conflict, and the chances that Moscow will formally recognise the Donbas and Lugansk 'Peoples' Republics.' You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Jan 22, 2022•23 min•Ep. 56
One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released later: usually a month, in this case a fortnight, as I think it's worth hearing early in the year! I freely admit business is not my area of expertise, so who better to give a quick assessment of what may await in 2022 than Ben Aris, Editor-in-Chief of bne Intellinews ( https://www.intellinews.com/ ) and one of the more grounded commentators on ‘Planet Business.’ You can also follow my blog, In ...
Jan 12, 2022•15 min
A Russian-led force deploying into Kazakhstan has inevitably had some people talking invasion, some stabilisation. I make no claims to being a Kazakhstan expert and look forward to people who are having the opportunity to work out if this was a coup by President Tokaev against his patron and master Nazarbaev or something else. So instead, I look at the crisis through the Russian lens: why did the CSTO agree to send forces, what are Moscow's interests, and what can we learn from the Russian media...
Jan 09, 2022•39 min•Ep. 55
To kick off the year, rather than making some grand predictions about Russia, instead I speculate as to what 2022 may offer Putin, Patrushev, Mishustin, Shoigu, Kirienko and Kadyrov. So much will depend on one key decision, whether the system will legitimate itself 'socially' or as a 'fortress.' The twitter thread on the VTsIOM poll I mentioned is here , and the Riddle 'Key Event of 2021' compilation is here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's sup...
Jan 01, 2022•32 min•Ep. 54
A short, one-segment piece on Russia's proposed new treaties and how, despite what their deputy foreign minister may say, we have to treat them as the basis for some kind of negotiation, and see what comes of it. So long, that is, that we also step up our deterrence, to ensure Moscow has good reason to talk. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Sup...
Dec 19, 2021•21 min•Ep. 53
Quite what is Russia's game plan over Ukraine? It seems hard to explain through common sense, so I conduct a thought experiment: what would Putin have to be thinking to believe that a war, with all the consequent and catastrophic political and economic costs, might make sense? In the second part, I look at some developments in the Russian underworld that suggest that a long nightmare - the prospect of nation-wide mafia wars - might well actually be on the wane. You can also follow my blog, In Mo...
Dec 12, 2021•40 min•Ep. 52
Something of a miscellany. First of all, latest thoughts - that turn out to be disappointingly inconclusive - about what's going on with Ukraine. Then reflections on the appointment of a career cop as the new head of FSIN, the Federal Penitentiary Service, and the prospects for pragmatic reform. (The 2011 blog I mentioned is here .) Then short and sour comments about the vacuous and dangerous virtue signalling that is the proposed Congressional resolution not to recognise Putin as president “if ...
Nov 28, 2021•39 min•Ep. 51
In the first part, a little exploration of MID, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its decline - and yet why it still ought not to be taken lightly. Then in the second half I look at the current crises in Belarus and Ukraine. The article by Kadri Liik I mentioned is here , and my earlier 'Free Sergei Lavrov!' article here . I also looked at the Belarus crisis (and why it should not be turned into a 'Putin story') here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podca...
Nov 21, 2021•47 min•Ep. 50
While still processing a month spent in Russia, I feel that the uniting leitmotif is survivalism, that every sector - from ordinary Russians through the liberal intelligentsia and the bureaucracy, all the way to the Kremlin - are hunkering down, bracing for winter. I explore what this means to each. Then in the second half I tackle a series of questions sent in by patrons, from whether I felt at risk in Russia (in short: no) to whether you can now get decent parmesan there (in short: yes). If an...
Nov 14, 2021•51 min•Ep. 49
A trip to Tula, 200km south of Moscow, provides a chance to mix a little history and travelogue with some thoughts about what the city reveals about the nature of provincial life, regional politics and the state economy versus the market economy. In the second half, I look at Tula's governor Alexei Dyumin, a former bodyguard to Putin and for some still a potential successor. How much do governors matter? The travel blog I mention is Travels in Deepest Muscovy , which will later feature a photo-e...
Oct 24, 2021•46 min•Ep. 48
Just back to Russia, my first trip since February 2020, and for this podcast I try something different - a random collection of impressions, mainly recorded on the street (so apologies for the often poor sound quality). Normal podcasting will resume shortly! You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Oct 17, 2021•37 min•Ep. 47
Two quite big topics this episode. First of all, the restrictive new rules on 'Foreign Agent' status that, if applied, would make it almost impossible to discuss military, security and even space topics. They are as much about drawing sharper lines - are you with us or against us - as encouraging self-censorship. Then, after the break, some rumination on 'hybrid war' - why it's not that helpful a term, and why, when we talk about Russia, there is no one notion of 'hybrid war' but three. You can ...
Oct 02, 2021•43 min•Ep. 46
I confess at this stage I couldn't think of much to say about the Russian elections that wasn't obvious, or hadn't been said, so instead I recorded a 'magazine' episode covering a range of other topics: Team Navalny's latest video ( here ), this time on the corruption of Foreign Minister Lavrov, and why the opposition needs a new big idea The Zapad-2021 exercises and their political significance (coverage by Mike Kofman here and Konrad Muzyka here ) Three stories that went under-reported in Russ...
Sep 19, 2021•42 min•Ep. 45
A shorter episode that looks at a vicious criminal's end in a prison riot in Kamchatka, and after talking a little about prison realities in Russia, considers some possible lessons for Russia as a whole. I mention the vexed issue of police numbers, something I discuss here and here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here . Support the show...
Sep 06, 2021•30 min•Ep. 44
Sometimes it's worth digging into what look like less important stories, to see what lessons the offer about the big picture developments, so I tackle three - who's likely to be the next ambassador to Cape Verde, why airfare hikes contribute to street violence, and why Naryshkin is now claiming to be a long-time mate of Putin's - and see what I can make of them. For those figures I threw out, the proportions of staff of different Presidential Administration departments estimated to be current or...
Aug 29, 2021•51 min•Ep. 43
There may be a little schadenfreude as America abandons Afghanistan and the Taliban sweep into Kabul, but Moscow is worried, above all about the country's three traditions exports: terror, refugees and opium. The fate of the Afghan regime - and the way the 1991 August Coup caught the West by surprise - are also reminders of the problems in trying to predict the future...especially when it comes to Russia. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporti...
Aug 21, 2021•39 min•Ep. 42
Having long relied on it as a stalwart of the ‘systemic opposition’, the Kremlin now seems to be treating the Communist Party (KPRF) as if it were a real opposition party. Might this push it into real opposition? I build off a recent piece I wrote in the Moscow Times . The previous podcast I mentioned is here . And in the second half, I indulge myself musing about occultism in Russian politics, from the search for Shambhala to 'red battle magician.' But is occultism perhaps really the best lens ...
Aug 04, 2021•35 min•Ep. 41
Is PM Mikhail Mishustin thinking long-term? His vision for Russia seems to be technocratic, maybe even techno-authoritarian, but it is interesting - and maybe implicitly subversive. In the second half, I look at Russian-Ukrainian relations over the Donbas, public lunacy and private pragmatism. There's all kinds of silliness - including a case Moscow is taking to the European Court of Human Rights - but maybe the very tone actually reflects the resigned pragmatism new Donbas 'curator' Dmitry Koza...
Jul 27, 2021•43 min•Ep. 40
Another short, single-segment episode, this time looking at 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,' Putin's latest venture into the role of amateur historian (available in English here ). Equal parts history, polemic and paranoia, it says more about VVP's state of mind than anything else, in my opinion. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right h...
Jul 13, 2021•19 min•Ep. 39
A brief, single-segment podcast on the distinctive roles of sport for today's Kremlin. Not a topic that I'd usually expect to discuss... The journal article I mentioned on RT is ‘Russia isn’t a country of Putins!’: How RT bridged the credibility gap in Russian public diplomacy during the 2018 FIFA World Cup' by Rhys Crilley et al, here . You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive ex...
Jul 12, 2021•20 min•Ep. 38
