Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
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The battle between the cycle and the energy shock is over, and the cycle has won. The second half will still face headwinds as some supports fade and some drags remain. But the cyclical lift taking shape looks strong, and conviction is high that the expansion is on an upturn. This shifts the conversation to the next battle: If, when, and by how much will central banks need to tap the brake to get the inflation contained. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2...
J.P. Morgan's Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton debate whether global growth risks are shifting from downside to upside for the second half of 2026. They analyze the impact of a potential oil deal, resilient labor markets, and stronger business activity on the growth outlook, contrasting current forecasts with potential for above-trend expansion. The discussion also delves into the implications for central bank policies, including the ECB's hawkish stance, the Fed's future rate path under a new chair, and expected moves from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
J.P. Morgan's Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton analyze the robust global economic cycle, highlighting unexpected strength in the US labor market and broadening business spending beyond tech. They discuss the crucial role of consumer resilience, the pick-up in global manufacturing, and emerging concerns like Western Europe and China's domestic economy. The conversation concludes with a detailed outlook on the Federal Reserve's likely policy shifts and dot plot expectations in light of the evolving macro landscape.
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton analyze the global economic outlook, with Bruce expressing optimism about the economy's resilience to energy price shocks, supported by strong business sector activity and a holding consumer. Joe counters with concerns about accumulating drags from sustained high gasoline prices, depressed saving rates, and fading fiscal support, potentially leading to weaker growth in the second half. They also delve into a detailed debate on inflation dynamics, specifically the stickiness of service price inflation versus accelerating core goods inflation, and what this implies for central bank policy and long-term inflation expectations.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports and signals for the path ahead. Surging energy prices pushed global headline inflation up further to 3.4%oya in April, bringing the gain since February to 1%-pt. The three-month annualized headline CPI rate jumped to 6.0%––its strongest pace since 2022––with energy prices alone adding 4%ar. Core inflation has remained sticky around 3% but we see growing risks of a break higher a...
Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton analyze the global economic outlook, highlighting the "whiplash" between cyclical uplift and geopolitical headwinds. They discuss recent weak PMI and China data, consumer spending sustainability amid falling saving rates, and the increasing worry about sticky core inflation. The hosts debate the Federal Reserve's appropriate policy response to persistent inflation, consider the divergent strategies of other central banks like the ECB and Bank of England, and explore a potential scenario where the US economy grows while Europe contracts.
Inflation is playing a dual role at present. First, as a driver of spending that is boosting the cost of living via higher energy prices. Second, as a reflection of the momentum in the underlying cycle. Central banks are taking note of both, but it's the latter that will have staying power and is thus fueling their hawkish shift. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 14 May 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients pleas...
In this episode, we unpack how the war in the Middle East has been shaping the economic outlook for Azerbaijan, and why — perhaps surprisingly — it has generated some positive spillovers for Armenia too. We explore how Armenia continues to outperform growth expectations, while its external sector undergoes a structural shift toward IT and financial services that most investors are still overlooking. We then turn to the June 2026 parliamentary elections and why their outcome is directly tied to t...
The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a strong start to the year with momentum in manufacturing continuing into April and 2) central banks that may have turned more hawkish again but remain cautiously on hold. The ability of the US consumer to smooth as well as they did last year is debated. Speaker...
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy prices surged in response to the Iran conflict, pushing the three-month annualized headline CPI rate to its strongest pace in three years. Inflation outside of energy was well-behaved, with core inflation up a modest 0.19% gain last month. Although the 3%ar 3m run-...
With the immediate tail risks from the Middle East shock receding, the conversation shifts back to the baseline forecast for global growth and inflation. The speakers debate the implications of a modest energy price spike and strong US job growth for central bank policy, emphasizing a potential hawkish tilt for the Fed. They also discuss policy outlooks for other central banks like the ECB and BOJ, emerging market dynamics, and the nuances of the global and Chinese economic recovery.
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton debate the fragile global economic outlook, focusing on the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for energy prices. They analyze concerning macroeconomic indicators from March, including consumer spending slowdowns and a significant purchasing power drag, while also considering existing economic cushions. The discussion extends to central bank policy, with emphasis on the Fed's patience, and financial market stability, including potential regulatory easing. The episode concludes with a preview of J.P. Morgan's new enhanced card data project and its retail sales forecasts.
The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit from the commodity shock. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 3 April 20...
Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton analyze the four-week-old energy price shock, examining its baseline impact on global GDP and inflation, and the vulnerabilities it exposes in the economy. They delve into the geopolitical factors, market underpricing of extreme oil price risks, and a heated debate on whether central banks should or will tighten policy in response to evolving inflation and recession probabilities. The discussion highlights differing views on consumer behavior, fiscal support, and the Fed's historical reactions to similar shocks.
This episode delves into the tension between robust global economic momentum and the increasing drag from the Middle East conflict's energy supply shock. Experts discuss the potential for non-linear risks and significantly higher oil prices, challenging current timid forecasts. The conversation also scrutinizes divergent central bank responses, contrasting the Fed's cautious stance with the ECB's perceived hasty hiking amid concerns about core inflation and growth.
Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton explore the macroeconomic implications of ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the uncertainty surrounding oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, outlining various oil price scenarios and their potential impact on global growth and inflation. They delve into how different central banks, including the ECB and Federal Reserve, are likely to respond to these risks, highlighting divergent policy biases. The discussion also touches on trade policy developments and a detailed outlook for Asia's thriving tech and non-tech manufacturing sectors.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conflict; the first-order impact of higher oil prices on headline CPI inflation; the likelihood and magnitude of second-order effects on core inflation and inflation expectations; and how central banks are likely to react to the shock. This podcast was recorded on March 12, 202 6. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutio...
The unexpected intensity of the war on Iran has rattled energy markets, threatening the global expansion. Timing and duration are as important as magnitude. Beyond the spillover of the conflict, activity is starting the year strong but labor markets continue to lag. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosu...
Incoming data support our call for a recoupling of weak job growth to solid GDP gains, driven by a fading of business caution. Beyond this near-term tracking, we consider the types of shocks that could disrupt the outlook further out—with a focus on how to think about AI’s impact. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...
J.P. Morgan Global Research recently launched the Industry and Policy Thematics group. The aim of this group is to provide timely analysis of economy-wide industry and policy topics, including issues related to security and resilience. In this episode we discuss the group’s inaugural report on Rare Earths, we discuss the rare earth supply chain, why rare earths are critical, common myths, and the potential US playbook going forward. Featuring Jahangir Aziz, Co-Head of Economic Research and Hea...
The podcast analyzes the current global economic landscape, noting strong signals and a shift towards more balanced growth, particularly outside the US. Hosts debate the market's overestimation of Fed rate cuts, citing resilient growth and inflation. They explore the impact of the SCOTUS AIPA ruling on US trade policy, suggesting alternative tariff channels. The episode concludes by examining ongoing uncertainties related to immigration policies and geopolitical risks, questioning the extent of "guardrails" on disruptive policies.
J.P. Morgan economists analyze recent US and global economic data, noting a "recoupling" trend where business caution fades, driving a pickup in non-tech hiring, even as consumer spending moderates. They debate the true strength of the US labor market and the trajectory of inflation, which presents a dilemma for the Fed regarding potential rate cuts versus persistent price pressures. The discussion also touches on economic developments in Asia, including China's credit growth and Japan's post-election fiscal policy, all viewed through the lens of central bank independence and political influence.
Fading caution that leads to firming global labor markets is the central rotation to keep the expansion going—away from balance sheets last year and toward labor income–driven consumer spending this year. Job market performance will also be central to presumptive Fed Chair Warsh’s ability to either deliver cuts or be stymied by a more cautious FOMC. Given the upward pressures on inflation in 1H26, inflation is less likely to be an x-factor pointing to lower Fed rates. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Jose...
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest global inflation developments. While fading last quarter’s slide in core CPI inflation, a phase of sticky inflation reflecting common global dynamics looks to be ending and will give way to more disparate 2026 outcomes. US inflation is expected to accelerate above 3%oya as an early-year rebound combines with persistent goods price pressures. At the same time, declining goods prices and moderating wage pre...
Strong global momentum at the start of the year is coming alongside rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. Is there a signal there? Can the EM ease even if DM rates stay on hold? Euro area inflation is coming off but growth is firming and pushing the unemployment rate to record lows. In the US, Fed chair nominee Warsh is likely to push for lower rates but could find himself in the dissent in the face of strong growth and sticky high inflation. Speaker: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podc...
This episode dissects the global economic outlook, highlighting a surprisingly robust consumer, strong GDP growth, and rebounding sentiment, particularly outside China. However, a significant debate emerges regarding the sustainability of this growth without a strong labor market rebound, exacerbated by a collapsing saving rate and unique distributional issues. The hosts also explore the future of Fed policy amid elevated inflation and discuss potential interest rate repricing and the impact of upcoming leadership changes, along with an outlook on global inflation and China's economy.
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss the 2026 global macro forecast, focusing on consumer resilience and the elusive pickup in job growth. They debate whether last year's disruptive US policies still pose a threat and the true intent behind current administrative announcements, particularly regarding their potential impact on business confidence. The hosts also delve into the perplexing recent inflation data, the future of Fed independence, and the long-term institutional changes within the Federal Reserve, offering divergent views on economic risks for the year ahead.
