Global Data Pod Weekender: I’m okay, you’re okay
Summary
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton analyze the global economic outlook, with Bruce expressing optimism about the economy's resilience to energy price shocks, supported by strong business sector activity and a holding consumer. Joe counters with concerns about accumulating drags from sustained high gasoline prices, depressed saving rates, and fading fiscal support, potentially leading to weaker growth in the second half. They also delve into a detailed debate on inflation dynamics, specifically the stickiness of service price inflation versus accelerating core goods inflation, and what this implies for central bank policy and long-term inflation expectations.Episode description
The global expansion is showing resilience to the energy shock as the pre-war cyclical lift we have anticipated is absorbing the loss of purchasing power. As we enter week 14 of the Strait remaining closed, should we feel better, worse, or have the same degree of caution? If the Strait opens, will the cycle accelerate or are there headwinds to still worry about for 2H26? And if not, what should this mean for central banks?
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 29 May 2026.
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