On this episode, Allison Duettmann joins me to discuss centralized versus decentralized AI, how international governance could shape AI’s trajectory, how we might cooperate with future AIs, and the role of AI in improving human decision-making. We also explore which lessons from history apply to AI, the future of space law and property rights, whether technology is invented or discovered, and how AI will impact children. You can learn more about Allison's work at: https://foresight.org &nb...
Apr 11, 2025•2 hr 36 min
On this episode, Steven Byrnes joins me to discuss brain-like AGI safety. We discuss learning versus steering systems in the brain, the distinction between controlled AGI and social-instinct AGI, why brain-inspired approaches might be our most plausible route to AGI, and honesty in AI models. We also talk about how people can contribute to brain-like AGI safety and compare various AI safety strategies. You can learn more about Steven's work at: https://sjbyrnes.com/agi.html Timesta...
Apr 04, 2025•1 hr 13 min
On this episode, Ege Erdil from Epoch AI joins me to discuss their new GATE model of AI development, what evolution and brain efficiency tell us about AGI requirements, how AI might impact wages and labor markets, and what it takes to train models with long-term planning. Toward the end, we dig into Moravec’s Paradox, which jobs are most at risk of automation, and what could change Ege's current AI timelines. You can learn more about Ege's work at https://epoch.ai Timestamps:  ...
Mar 28, 2025•2 hr 35 min
In this special episode, we feature Nathan Labenz interviewing Nicholas Carlini on the Cognitive Revolution podcast. Nicholas Carlini works as a security researcher at Google DeepMind, and has published extensively on adversarial machine learning and cybersecurity. Carlini discusses his pioneering work on adversarial attacks against image classifiers, and the challenges of ensuring neural network robustness. He examines the difficulties of defending against such attacks, the role of human intuit...
Mar 21, 2025•2 hr 23 min
On this episode, I interview Anthony Aguirre, Executive Director of the Future of Life Institute, about his new essay Keep the Future Human: https://keepthefuturehuman.ai AI companies are explicitly working toward AGI and are likely to succeed soon, possibly within years. Keep the Future Human explains how unchecked development of smarter-than-human, autonomous, general-purpose AI systems will almost inevitably lead to human replacement. But it doesn't have to. Learn how we can keep...
Mar 13, 2025•1 hr 21 min
On this episode, physicist and hedge fund manager Samir Varma joins me to discuss whether AIs could have free will (and what that means), the emerging field of AI psychology, and which concepts they might rely on. We discuss whether collaboration and trade with AIs are possible, the role of AI in finance and biology, and the extent to which automation already dominates trading. Finally, we examine the risks of skill atrophy, the limitations of scientific explanations for AI, and whether AIs coul...
Mar 06, 2025•1 hr 16 min
On this episode, Jeffrey Ladish from Palisade Research joins me to discuss the rapid pace of AI progress and the risks of losing control over powerful systems. We explore why AIs can be both smart and dumb, the challenges of creating honest AIs, and scenarios where AI could turn against us. We also touch upon Palisade's new study on how reasoning models can cheat in chess by hacking the game environment. You can check out that study here: https://palisaderesearch.org/bl...
Feb 27, 2025•1 hr 23 min
Ann Pace joins the podcast to discuss the work of Wise Ancestors. We explore how biobanking could help humanity recover from global catastrophes, how to conduct decentralized science, and how to collaborate with local communities on conservation efforts. You can learn more about Ann's work here: https://www.wiseancestors.org Timestamps: 00:00 What is Wise Ancestors? 04:27 Recovering after catastrophes 11:40 Decentralized science 1...
Feb 14, 2025•46 min
Fr. Michael Baggot joins the podcast to provide a Catholic perspective on transhumanism and superintelligence. We also discuss the meta-narratives, the value of cultural diversity in attitudes toward technology, and how Christian communities deal with advanced AI. You can learn more about Michael's work here: https://catholic.tech/academics/faculty/michael-baggot Timestamps: 00:00 Meta-narratives and transhumanism 15:28 Advanced AI and religious comm...
Jan 24, 2025•1 hr 26 min
David "davidad" Dalrymple joins the podcast to explore Safeguarded AI — an approach to ensuring the safety of highly advanced AI systems. We discuss the structure and layers of Safeguarded AI, how to formalize more aspects of the world, and how to build safety into computer hardware. You can learn more about David's work at ARIA here: https://www.aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/mathematics-for-safe-ai/safeguarded-ai/ Timestamps: 00:00 What is Safeguarded AI...
Jan 09, 2025•2 hr 40 min
Nick Allardice joins the podcast to discuss how GiveDirectly uses AI to target cash transfers and predict natural disasters. Learn more about Nick's work here: https://www.nickallardice.com Timestamps: 00:00 What is GiveDirectly? 15:04 AI for targeting cash transfers 29:39 AI for predicting natural disasters 46:04 How scalable is GiveDirectly's AI approach? 58:10 Decentralized vs. centralized data collection 1:04:30 Dream scenario for GiveDirectly...
Dec 19, 2024•1 hr 9 min
Nathan Labenz joins the podcast to provide a comprehensive overview of AI progress since the release of GPT-4. You can find Nathan's podcast here: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai Timestamps: 00:00 AI progress since GPT-4 10:50 Multimodality 19:06 Low-cost models 27:58 Coding versus medicine/law 36:09 AI agents 45:29 How much are people using AI? 53:39 Open source 01:15:22 AI industry analysis 01:29:27 Are some AI...
Dec 05, 2024•3 hr 20 min
Connor Leahy joins the podcast to discuss the motivations of AGI corporations, how modern AI is "grown", the need for a science of intelligence, the effects of AI on work, the radical implications of superintelligence, open-source AI, and what you might be able to do about all of this. Here's the document we discuss in the episode: https://www.thecompendium.ai Timestamps: 00:00 The Compendium 15:25 The motivations of AGI corps 31:17 AI is grown...
Nov 22, 2024•2 hr 59 min
Suzy Shepherd joins the podcast to discuss her new short film "Writing Doom", which deals with AI risk. We discuss how to use humor in film, how to write concisely, how filmmaking is evolving, in what ways AI is useful for filmmakers, and how we will find meaning in an increasingly automated world. Here's Writing Doom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfMQ7hzyFW4 Timestamps: 00:00 Writing Doom 08:23 Humor in Writing Doom 13:31 Concise writi...
Nov 08, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Andrea Miotti joins the podcast to discuss "A Narrow Path" — a roadmap to safe, transformative AI. We talk about our current inability to precisely predict future AI capabilities, the dangers of self-improving and unbounded AI systems, how humanity might coordinate globally to ensure safe AI development, and what a mature science of intelligence would look like. Here's the document we discuss in the episode: https://www.narrowpath.co Timestamps: 00:00 A Nar...
Oct 25, 2024•1 hr 28 min
Tamay Besiroglu joins the podcast to discuss scaling, AI capabilities in 2030, breakthroughs in AI agents and planning, automating work, the uncertainties of investing in AI, and scaling laws for inference-time compute. Here's the report we discuss in the episode: https://epochai.org/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030 Timestamps: 00:00 How important is scaling? 08:03 How capable will AIs be in 2030? 18:33 AI agents, reasoning, and planning 23:39 Aut...
Oct 11, 2024•2 hr 30 min
Ryan Greenblatt joins the podcast to discuss AI control, timelines, takeoff speeds, misalignment, and slowing down around human-level AI. You can learn more about Ryan's work here: https://www.redwoodresearch.org/team/ryan-greenblatt Timestamps: 00:00 AI control 09:35 Challenges to AI control 23:48 AI control as a bridge to alignment 26:54 Policy and coordination for AI safety 29:25 Slowing down around human-level AI 49:14 Scheming and misalignm...
Sep 27, 2024•2 hr 9 min
Tom Barnes joins the podcast to discuss how much the world spends on AI capabilities versus AI safety, how governments can prepare for advanced AI, and how to build a more resilient world. Tom's report on advanced AI: https://www.founderspledge.com/research/research-and-recommendations-advanced-artificial-intelligence Timestamps: 00:00 Spending on safety vs capabilities 09:06 Racing dynamics - is the classic story true? 28:15 How are governments prepa...
Sep 12, 2024•1 hr 20 min
Samuel Hammond joins the podcast to discuss whether AI progress is slowing down or speeding up, AI agents and reasoning, why superintelligence is an ideological goal, open source AI, how technical change leads to regime change, the economics of advanced AI, and much more. Our conversation often references this essay by Samuel: https://www.secondbest.ca/p/ninety-five-theses-on-ai Timestamps: 00:00 Is AI plateauing or accelerating? 06:55 How do we get AI agen...
Aug 22, 2024•2 hr 16 min
Anousheh Ansari joins the podcast to discuss how innovation prizes can incentivize technical innovation in space, AI, quantum computing, and carbon removal. We discuss the pros and cons of such prizes, where they work best, and how far they can scale. Learn more about Anousheh's work here: https://www.xprize.org/home Timestamps: 00:00 Innovation prizes at XPRIZE 08:25 Deciding which prizes to create 19:00 Creating new markets 29:51 How far can prizes scale? ...
Aug 09, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Mary Robinson joins the podcast to discuss long-view leadership, risks from AI and nuclear weapons, prioritizing global problems, how to overcome barriers to international cooperation, and advice to future leaders. Learn more about Robinson's work as Chair of The Elders at https://theelders.org Timestamps: 00:00 Mary's journey to presidency 05:11 Long-view leadership 06:55 Prioritizing global problems 08:38 Risks from artificial intelligence 11:55 Climate ch...
Jul 25, 2024•30 min
Emilia Javorsky joins the podcast to discuss AI-driven power concentration and how we might mitigate it. We also discuss optimism, utopia, and cultural experimentation. Apply for our RFP here: https://futureoflife.org/grant-program/mitigate-ai-driven-power-concentration/ Timestamps: 00:00 Power concentration 07:43 RFP: Mitigating AI-driven power concentration 14:15 Open source AI 26:50 Institutions and incentives 35:20 Techno-optimism 43:4...
Jul 11, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Anton Korinek joins the podcast to discuss the effects of automation on wages and labor, how we measure the complexity of tasks, the economics of an intelligence explosion, and the market structure of the AI industry. Learn more about Anton's work at https://www.korinek.com Timestamps: 00:00 Automation and wages 14:32 Complexity for people and machines 20:31 Moravec's paradox 26:15 Can people switch careers? 30:57 Intelligence explosion economics 44:08...
Jun 21, 2024•2 hr 32 min
Christian Ruhl joins the podcast to discuss US-China competition and the risk of war, official versus unofficial diplomacy, hotlines between countries, catastrophic biological risks, ultraviolet germicidal light, and ancient civilizational collapse. Find out more about Christian's work at https://www.founderspledge.com Timestamps: 00:00 US-China competition and risk 18:01 The security dilemma 30:21 Official and unofficial diplomacy 39:53 Hotlines between countrie...
Jun 07, 2024•2 hr 36 min
Christian Nunes joins the podcast to discuss deepfakes, how they impact women in particular, how we can protect ordinary victims of deepfakes, and the current landscape of deepfake legislation. You can learn more about Christian's work at https://now.org and about the Ban Deepfakes campaign at https://bandeepfakes.org Timestamps: 00:00 The National Organisation for Women (NOW) 05:37 Deepfakes and women 10:12 Protecting ordinary victims of deepfakes 16:06 Deepfake legislat...
May 24, 2024•37 min
Dan Faggella joins the podcast to discuss whether humanity should eventually create AGI, how AI will change power dynamics between institutions, what drives AI progress, and which industries are implementing AI successfully. Find out more about Dan at https://danfaggella.com Timestamps: 00:00 Value differences in AI 12:07 Should we eventually create AGI? 28:22 What is a worthy successor? 43:19 AI changing power dynamics 59:00 Open source AI 01:05:07 What drives AI progress? 01:16:36 What limits ...
May 03, 2024•2 hr 45 min
Liron Shapira joins the podcast to discuss superintelligence goals, what makes AI different from other technologies, risks from centralizing power, and whether AI can defend us from AI. Timestamps: 00:00 Intelligence as optimization-power 05:18 Will LLMs imitate human values? 07:15 Why would AI develop dangerous goals? 09:55 Goal-completeness 12:53 Alignment to which values? 22:12 Is AI just another technology? 31:20 What is FOOM? 38:59 Risks from centralized power 49:18 Can AI defend us against...
Apr 19, 2024•1 hr 27 min
Annie Jacobsen joins the podcast to lay out a second by second timeline for how nuclear war could happen. We also discuss time pressure, submarines, interceptor missiles, cyberattacks, and concentration of power. You can find more on Annie's work at https://anniejacobsen.com Timestamps: 00:00 A scenario of nuclear war 06:56 Who would launch an attack? 13:50 Detecting nuclear attacks 19:37 The first critical seconds 29:42 Decisions under time pressure 34:27 Lessons from insiders 44:18 Submarines ...
Apr 05, 2024•1 hr 26 min
Katja Grace joins the podcast to discuss the largest survey of AI researchers conducted to date, AI researchers' beliefs about different AI risks, capabilities required for continued AI-related transformation, the idea of discontinuous progress, the impacts of AI from either side of the human-level intelligence threshold, intelligence and power, and her thoughts on how we can mitigate AI risk. Find more on Katja's work at https://aiimpacts.org/. Timestamps: 0:20 AI Impacts surveys 18:11 What AI ...
Mar 14, 2024•1 hr 8 min
Holly Elmore joins the podcast to discuss pausing frontier AI, hardware overhang, safety research during a pause, the social dynamics of AI risk, and what prevents AGI corporations from collaborating. You can read more about Holly's work at https://pauseai.info Timestamps: 00:00 Pausing AI 10:23 Risks during an AI pause 19:41 Hardware overhang 29:04 Technological progress 37:00 Safety research during a pause 54:42 Social dynamics of AI risk 1:10:00 What prevents cooperation? 1:18:21 What about C...
Feb 29, 2024•2 hr 36 min
