This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 19th November, 2024 at 1:30pm GMT. Onyx Research Associate Martha Dowding joins Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price action in the oil market over the past week. In the two weeks since Trump's election, oil price has seen little movement, while the equity market has seen remarkable change. While cryptocurrency value has increased off the back of Trump's election, what's to come for the oil market once he's in office remains unc...
Nov 19, 2024•30 min•Season 1Ep. 14
This week on Trading Corner, Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, James Anderson discusses key developments in the oil market with Head of Desk, Manny Newman. They dive into post-election market dynamics, refinery margins, and the impact of seasonal turnaround cycles. James shares insights on the Brent vs. Products spreads, China’s influence on global crude prices, and potential shifts in U.S. export dynamics. Manny and James also tackle the interplay between distillate cracks, freight movements, and ...
Nov 18, 2024•17 min•Season 1Ep. 10
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm GMT on Monday, the 18th of November. Tune in Mondays at 12:30pm UK time to watch Macro Mondays live. On today's episode, James and Will dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. Last week, Bitcoin, S&P 500, and NASDAQ hit all-time highs - but whether this rally will continue is unclear thanks to rising yields. Meanwhile, US Dollar strength is causing havoc with EURUSD & USD Yuan making multi-month lows, and...
Nov 18, 2024•32 min
In this episode of The Officials , Jorge, Ed, Harinder and Dr. Wu explore the latest trends in global energy dynamics and political shifts, and deep dive into the rapidly changing landscape in China - where electric vehicles (EVs) are taking over, significantly impacting gasoline and diesel demand. They discuss startling stats, the shift to EVs in major Chinese cities, the competitive tech race, and the broader economic implications - including substantial reductions in daily transportation cost...
Nov 14, 2024•20 min•Season 1Ep. 16
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 12th November, 2024 at 12pm GMT. Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the direction of oil prices in the wake of President Donald Trump's election. The team reviews the potential outcomes of a second Trump presidency in relation to his policy proposals and aims to express their implications through trading ideas. A second Trump presidency can have strong de...
Nov 12, 2024•31 min•Season 1Ep. 13
In this episode of Trading Corner Manny Newman and Jonah Van Bourg dive into the aftermath of the recent U.S. presidential election and its implications on the markets. They break down how a potential Trump administration could influence risk assets like equities and bitcoin, with conversations around short-term bullish expectations driven by policy changes. Manny and Jonah look at the energy sector, examining how Trump's approach might affect oil and energy markets and discuss possible shale oi...
Nov 11, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 9
This week, market volatility took centre stage, spurred by the perceived inflationary policies under Trump. His election victory led to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields surging nearly 19 basis points, and market-based inflation expectations—like 5-year breakevens—also jumped significantly. Equities responded optimistically, with the S&P 500 up 3.3% and the Nasdaq climbing 4.5%, buoyed by hopes of deregulation. The energy sector’s reaction was mixed; Trump's past policies affecti...
Nov 11, 2024•38 min
Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian, is joined by Chief Economist at Argus Media, David Fyfe for a special episode of Oil Insights. David brings over 30 years of experience in energy market analysis, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to Gunvor and now Argus Media, where he delivers deep insights into oil market dynamics, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic fundamentals. With the election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, Harry and David explore the...
Nov 08, 2024•1 hr 15 min•Season 1Ep. 12
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Singapore to join Research Analysts Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe. This week, the team discuss Trump's sweep of the US election - and what this means for the economy, from what we've seen already to what's to come in the next four years. They discuss potential shifts in US green initiatives, tariffs, the budget deficit, and more. Jorge, Ed, and Will also touch on Germany's declining industrial production and political inst...
Nov 07, 2024•18 min•Season 1Ep. 15
On this episode of Oil Insights, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu cover the potential implications of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election on the oil market, particularly focusing on foreign policy towards sanctioned countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as key Middle Eastern allies, like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Looking at sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, for Iran, under Harris, the current containment and loose sanc...
Nov 05, 2024•53 min•Season 1Ep. 11
This episode of Macro Mondays was recorded at 4:30pm GMT on Friday, the 1st of November. On today's episode, James Todd is joined by Research Analyst Will Cunliffe - as James Brodie is travelling - to dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. They discuss whether we're seeing an unwinding of the "Trump trade" as gold and the S&P 500 opened weaker on Thursday, 31st October. We're seeing mixed data out of the US, with a mix of increased consumer confidence and dis...
Nov 04, 2024•33 min
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Beijing to join Harry, Ed, and Will. The team dive into key market developments over the past week, including movements in the Chinese economy and updates on Chinese demand forecasts. They also explore how people will be trading as we enter US election week - and what the risks are. Finally, they look at geopolitical risk, including the current situation between North Korea and South Korea.
Nov 01, 2024•22 min•Season 1Ep. 14
In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies - from fluctuating geopolitical risk, to upcoming OPEC decisions, an uptick in physical demand, and more.
Oct 31, 2024•20 min•Season 1Ep. 8
Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Matt Aspin, Onyx Graduate Recruitment Lead, for a special episode of the CEO's Address to explore the generational shift in the industry - and within Onyx - as new graduates join. Matt gives insight into the evolution of the graduate job market, from pre-pandemic to current day. He and Greg discuss what Onyx looks for when hiring graduates, and the unique opportunities Onyx provides - given they fit the rigorous culture and company mission. However, not just on...
Oct 31, 2024•53 min
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 29th October, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the week that was and the week to come in the oil market. In this week's episode, Harry, Mita and Vincent discuss recent disruption in the oil market due to Israel's strike on Iran over the weekend. They analyse how Israel conducted the aerial strike - and what this means for the wider geopolitical situati...
Oct 29, 2024•52 min•Season 1Ep. 10
Join us LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd for Macro Mondays. On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. Oil prices have seen a significant drop off following Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian defense systems. The US 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.25%, marking the housing market’s most unaffordable level since the mid-1980s. This coincides with bonds now offering higher yields than stocks, a rarity not seen in 2...
Oct 28, 2024•34 min
In this episode of The Officials , Jorge, Ed, and Will dive into key market developments affecting energy, commodities, and the broader global economy. They discuss the recent volatility in the Dated Brent benchmark following the inclusion of WTI, and how this shift is creating discrepancies between physical and futures markets. They also explore concerns raised by Saudi officials about oil price trends and the disconnect between different market indicators - highlighting the persistence of vola...
Oct 24, 2024•18 min•Season 1Ep. 13
In this episode of Oil Insights , Martha Dowding hosts and is joined by fellow Research Associate, Mita Chaturvedi to analyse recent movements in oil prices, with a focus on Brent crude, (trading at $75/bbl at time of recording). Martha and Mita discuss three primary factors influencing prices at the moment: the potential for geopolitical flare-ups, investor positioning based on Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and expectations for a soft landing in the US economy. These factors are shaping mar...
Oct 22, 2024•16 min
On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. The U.S. housing market faces steep challenges as mortgage applications drop by 17%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.25% - the highest since July. Across the Atlantic, UK house prices show slower growth at 0.3% month-on-month. They also cover key updates from the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasising that rate cuts are not imminent despite ...
Oct 21, 2024•35 min
In this episode of Oil Insights , host Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Onyx Research Associates Vincent Wu and Martha Dowding to discuss how recent geopolitical developments have influenced the oil market. Following the October 1 missile attacks on Israel by Iran, the market is closely monitoring Israel's potential response, with Brent prices fluctuating between $73 and $80 per barrel. The discussion also covers the latest positioning data, highli...
Oct 15, 2024•31 min•Season 1Ep. 8
Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies in the oil sector. While the market has been relatively quiet but volatile, with crude oil prices settling in the high 70s per barrel, there is speculation around geopolitical risks - such as potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of increased crude production in Libya. Manny points out that a sell-off in a specific part of the market curve, mainly due to excess supply and hesitant refiners, has led to a be...
Oct 15, 2024•14 min•Season 1Ep. 7
This week, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest developments in the global economy, inflation, and U.S. politics. They begin by exploring weak Chinese economic data and discuss how China's worsening deflationary environment and a disappointing stimulus package announcement could impact global markets. They break down the latest U.S. inflation figures, with the CPI falling to 2.4% YoY but exceeding expectations. They also analyse insights from the recent FED minutes and comments from ...
Oct 14, 2024•34 min
For a special episode of Oil Insights, Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Paul Horsnell, Managing Director and Head of Commodity Research at Standard Chartered. Paul is a veteran of oil market analysis, and his views are widely sought-after when it comes to gaining insights into the turbulent world of oil market dynamics. Paul previously occupied similar functions at Barclays, JP Morgan, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. This episode of Oil Insi...
Oct 11, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 7
In today's episode of The Officials , Jorge, Harry, Ed and Will discuss geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving Israel, Iran, and other regional players, as well as the broader economic landscape and its effects on oil prices. Jorge recounts his recent travels to the region, noting observations of missile attacks and the vulnerability of Israeli defences. Jorge emphasises the strategic restraint by Israel, likely influenced by the U.S. due to upcoming elections and broader regional s...
Oct 10, 2024•21 min•Season 1Ep. 12
Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Mirko Ivanda, Co-Head of Power & Gas from the Onyx Switzerland office, for a special episode of the CEO’s Address. Together, they explore the intricate dynamics of power trading, focusing on how geopolitics fundamentally shapes supply and demand as well as the end-cost of our household energy bills. Mirko provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution of gas trading in Europe, shedding light on why Europe continues to receive gas from Russia through Ukraine...
Oct 09, 2024•1 hr 1 min
The week started with weak data, with global manufacturing PMIs contracting for the third straight month in September and with new orders dropping globally at the fastest rate in 11 months. But then services PMIs data surged higher, with the U.S. data at 54.9 (est 51.7) an 8-sigma beat. On Friday, payrolls unexpectedly surged +254K, way above expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Despite being fuelled by 785k government jobs, U.S. yields surged along with the dollar. The 2 year yi...
Oct 07, 2024•35 min
Jorge is live from Dubai and discussing Iran's attack on Israel with locals. The attack against Israel came as no surprise. Talking to the people in Dubai, they feel Iran was very measured in their actions, going after military assets - not civilians - and the general feeling is that Israel is the wild-card. The question on people's lips right now is: What will happen next? Prior to the attack, the oil market was within touching distance of the upper-60s and, with the news of the attack, rose to...
Oct 04, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 11
After the Brent front-month December contract started the day (UK time) testing the $70/bbl handle - seemingly ignoring tension in the Middle East - the market's flipped. The contract is trading above $73/bbl at time of filming after a Tweet led to a headline that an Iran strike on Israel may be imminent. Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian gives his assessment of the situation. Will we see more headlines like this? Will Brent continue to go up? Time will tell, but one thing's clear: One...
Oct 01, 2024•2 min
The market is falling out of bed this morning! Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian analyses the current market, with the Brent front-month December contract testing the $70/bbl handle, the market seemingly disregarding tension in the Middle East, participants going net short based on macro developments in China, and more factors. What direction will Brent go as the day continues? Stay tuned for updates!
Oct 01, 2024•3 min
Last week, there was a string of aggressive stimulus announced in China. Existing mortgage loan rates cut, 7-day reverse repo rate dropped by 20bps, minimum downpayment requirement for second homes falling to 15%. Simultaneously, China announced it will allow securities firms, funds and insurers to tap PBOC funds to buy stocks. We have seen the CSI 300 stock index rally significantly accordingly... but will this strength last, and is it representative of a strong Chinese economy? The Answer: No!...
Sep 30, 2024•35 min
