Jorge is back from Asia, and his findings from Singapore, China and Vietnam are stark. Building construction and industrial demand has slowed down significantly. The slow-down in China is serious, and the West is yet to see and understand the enormity of the change. The noise on the streets of Shanghai is no longer the sound of motor engines, but just tyres on the road, as around 70% of the cars in the roads in China are now EV's - which has led to a complete down turn in gasoline demand. With a...
Sep 26, 2024•23 min•Season 1Ep. 10
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 25th September, 2024 at 10am BST. Onyx Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi and Research Associate Martha Dowding join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the week that was and the week to come in the oil market. In this week's episode, Harry Mita and Martha unpack recent price movements in Brent and the tumultuous couple of weeks since the APPEC meeting in Singapore and the Fed's decision on rate cuts. As we continue to see Brent settl...
Sep 25, 2024•27 min•Season 1Ep. 6
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced a hawkish 50bp cut, with Jerome Powell stating the US economy is strong after data beat expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate surpassed the 36-month average - reaching levels previously seen during economic recession - and US home sales fell to their second-lowest level in 14 years. In Europe, the German economic data is looking woeful and continues to fall, with chances of a technical recession increasing. Poland, however, is seeing strength as ...
Sep 23, 2024•27 min
Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, James Anderson joins Group CEO Greg Newman to discuss the oil market’s significant reset, with crude futures prices dropping by approximately $10/bbl over the past few weeks. Greg and James debate the collective sentiment within the oil industry, noting how many traders follow the herd, seeking comfort in the analyses of research houses and banks. This creates a battle for narrative dominance—who will be the market's lead forecaster? The recent sell-off raises impo...
Sep 19, 2024•56 min•Season 1Ep. 4
All Chinese data is coming out weaker than expected, with unemployment rising to 5.3% and the economy entrenched in deflation with the GDP deflator declining for its fifth consecutive quarter. The Chinese CS300 equity index is trading at it's lowest level since 2019, and property shares have declined by over 90% in just 4 years. James Brodie and James Todd focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting; will they cut 25bp or 50bp? They also investigate the betting odds for Trump and Harris in reg...
Sep 16, 2024•25 min
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 10th September, 2024 at 11am BST. Research Associate Vincent Wu guest hosts alongside Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi as Harry Tchilinguirian attends APPEC in Singapore. In this week's episode of Oil Insights, Vincent and Mita delve into the current state of the oil market and discuss the potential for a significant price reversal given the ultra-short positioning by money managers, including CTAs. Amid prevailing economic uncertainty, sluggish Chine...
Sep 10, 2024•30 min•Season 1Ep. 5
James and Will discuss weak U.S. ISM manufacturing. New orders fell to 44.6 points from 47.4 in July, experiencing contraction for the 3rd straight month. The prices paid index jumped to 54.0 points from 52.9 in July, expanding for the 8th month in a row. Inventories unexpectedly surged the most in the past decade. There’s weak employment data out of the U.S. with just 142k jobs created in August. Full-time work is rapidly decreasing (-438k), while part-time work is up (+527k). An All-Time High ...
Sep 09, 2024•29 min
Group CEO Greg Newman discusses the challenges and evolving landscape of the oil derivatives market. He highlights the central role of exchanges in price discovery and liquidity, noting that these exchanges have become the heartbeat of the market. Greg also reflects on the historical dominance of Western financial centres in oil trading but suggests that the future may shift towards other regions, particularly the East. He cites the example of ADNOC's Murban contract and recent moves by Saudi Ar...
Sep 04, 2024•12 min•Season 1Ep. 3
Following the announcement of Onyx Capital Group's expansion into Retail Trading through the launch of Onyx Markets, Group CEO Greg Newman sits down with Director of Retail Trading, Andrea Rebusco, to discuss this significant milestone. This move is poised to transform the oil market, driving forward digitization, democratization, and scaling. The time has come to open this market to everyone. Retail investors have long been marginalized and excluded from the contracts that shape the prices of e...
Sep 04, 2024•39 min
For a special episode of Oil Insights, Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research, is joined by Dr Michal Meidan, Head of China Energy Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, for a special edition of our podcast today focused on China. In this episode, Harry and Michal explore China's oil demand outlook as institutional forecasters, including the IEA and OPEC, alongside prominent Wall Street banks, downgrade their views. They discuss how weak macroeconomic data, coupled with chall...
Sep 03, 2024•51 min•Season 1Ep. 4
China saw its weakest manufacturing PMI data since February this week, with a fourth consecutive contraction. In the US, PCE inflation data came in below expectations, while Q2 GDP and consumer confidence came in higher. The Q2 GDP data is very backward looking, and this week’s U.S. PMIs and employment data are of critical importance - particularly with the next Federal Reserve central bank meeting on 18th September. The Fed seems dovish, key data shows manufacturing and employment slumping, and...
Sep 02, 2024•37 min
In the latest episode of The Officials, special guest Michal Meidan, Director, China Energy Programme at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies joins Jorge Montepeque, Harry Tchilinguirian, Vincent Wu and new Official Edward Hayden-Briffett to discuss China’s impact on the financial energy market and demand. The picture isn’t pretty for China at the moment. Sentiment is weak and it’s been a difficult year for the economy, with real estate downturn and expenditure down as well. The east is also seei...
Aug 29, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 7
Welcome to the third episode of Oil Insights, hosted by Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx, alongside co-hosts Mita Chaturvedi and Martha Dowding. Despite the vanishing trading volumes amid the holiday in the UK, it has been anything but a quiet beginning to this week, with the front month Brent futures contract firming to an intraday high of $81.50 on Monday. Tensions in the Middle East, dovish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and tensions surrounding Libya's crude oil production...
Aug 28, 2024•28 min•Season 1Ep. 3
Please note, this episode was recorded on Friday 23rd August at 17.00. Macro Specialist James Brodie and Trader, Director James Todd delve into Powell's Jackson Hole testimony, the weak manufacturing PMI globally and UK inflation below expectations. They also take a look at inflation within the UK and the soft prices we've been seeing in crude oil over the past week. James Brodie and James Todd look into the OIS pricing to see what's priced by the central banks in the forthcoming central bank me...
Aug 26, 2024•27 min
There are a few issues to discuss on the sixth episode of The Officials, the main one being that the oil markets have been correcting. If you've been reading The Officials, you will have seen that the team have taken a negative stance on the global economy and the oil markets. The Officials discuss the state of China, where data is showing indicators are quite negative, but what is attracting the interest of the team are results by Western companies for the first half of the year, where we're se...
Aug 22, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 6
Last week Greg discussed the role of hedge funds and their impact on oil markets in the past year. There has been plenty of hearsay and gossip from within the industry in response to the publishing arm of Onyx Capital Group, namely, The Officials. Host of The Officials and Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque, joins Group CEO Greg Newman to explain why pushing for greater transparency sparks an old style backlash. For the avoidance of doubt, it's important to note, Onyx Capital Group has a...
Aug 21, 2024•32 min•Season 1Ep. 2
Welcome to the second episode of Oil Insights , hosted by Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx, alongside co-hosts Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu, members of the research team at Onyx. The oil market started last week on a strong note, only to finish on a whimper trading sub-80s last Friday. Geopolitics early last week did help uplift prices, with fund positioning ready to add some more risk. But geopolitical premia seemed to deflate as diplomatic efforts were stepped up to try to secu...
Aug 20, 2024•31 min•Season 1Ep. 2
RBNZ cut rates 25bp in a largely unexpected move. Meanwhile, there's some weak data out of the U.S.: Core goods CPI has plunged even further into deflation (-1.9% YoY), with PPI and industrial production also weak. On the other hand, U.S. retail sales are up and initial jobless claims are down. Euro area industrial production has fallen 0.1%MoM and 0.5% - BBG. In the U.S., Chapter 11 filings are the highest they've been in a decade; home buyers' sentiment has dropped to record lows; and inventor...
Aug 19, 2024•28 min
The Officials are back to discuss the latest market developments in the past week. You can also read The Officials latest report What goes up must come down, says wise ops guy here; https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-what-goes-up-must-come-down-says-wise-ops-guy/ This week, the API showed crude inventories going up by 5.2/million bbl. Upon the APIs release, there was almost no reaction in flat price to the huge inventory drop. As the market received this 'bullish' inventory data the m...
Aug 16, 2024•19 min
Greg Newman, Group Chief Executive of Onyx Capital Group, launches the new podcast, CEO Breakdown. In today's episode, Greg dives into the myriad of changes happening at Onyx right now - including gearing up for the launch of Onyx Markets to provide retail investors with transparent access to the oil swaps market , as well as more educational resources through new Onyx shows and podcasts. He delves into the intricacies of the oil industry, from market infrastructure and regulation to industry tr...
Aug 14, 2024•37 min•Season 1Ep. 1
Welcome to the pilot episode of Oil Insights , hosted by Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx, alongside co-hosts Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu, Research Associates at Onyx. The oil market has been on a wild ride in the past week and change, selling off violently amidst unwinds in other classes, notably FX and the Yen carry trade. The risk-off mood across risky assets did, however, stabilise, with oil back above $80/bbl. The VIX index, the volatility indicator of the S&P 500, a mea...
Aug 13, 2024•31 min•Season 1Ep. 1
Macro Specialist James Brodie and Direct Trader James Todd weigh in on the macro markets’ moves over the past week on the back of the data released last week including central bank rate hikes and cuts, U.S. ISM manufacturing and serviced data and U.S. employment data. U.S. employment data was weak, with only 114000 jobs created in July and unemployment sitting at 4.3%. Japan also had its biggest crash in stocks since Black Monday of 1987 with the repercussions of this affecting the Korean market...
Aug 12, 2024•36 min
It's been a very serious week. Japan had a major collapse on Monday, with Nikkei coming off by 12% overnight - which has been the worst day of index since 1987. The Nikkei moved into a loss position after significant gains this year. The outlook wasn't good for Japan, and this extended into Korea, who remained tight-lipped about their trading books and personal holdings. The Officials discuss the reason for the collapse and its subsequent effect on the market. You can read The Officials latest p...
Aug 08, 2024•12 min
In this episode of the Onyx Leadership Series, Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian discusses lessons from throughout his career, the evolution of oil analysis, Onyx's future, and more. Extend your analysis of oil derivatives with OTC oil swaps insights and enhance predictive accuracy using Onyx’s new Commitment of Traders Market Positioning Dataset. You can watch more Onyx Leadership Series podcasts here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk7gPO6iMwPPlHVSXp09iLLN...
Aug 08, 2024•56 min
Join us for the third episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Harry Tchilinguirian, Vincent Wu and Will Cunliffe. The link to our latest publication of The Officials, can be found here: https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-geopolitics-vs-economics/ Last week, we were caught in a very bearish week in the market, and the Off...
Aug 01, 2024•18 min
After working as a performance psychologist for Premier League players, F1 drivers, and more, Chris Gooder joins Onyx as Performance Director. Viewing trading as the closest thing in business to elite level sports, Chris talks with Group CEO Greg Newman about the behaviours, motivations, and psychological patterns common amongst successful individuals. The two discuss the reality that people aren't machines - even if their role depends on them performing like one. That's where Chris steps in, to...
Jul 30, 2024•57 min
You’ve read The Officials, now hear it. Join us for the second episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today. Find our daily Officials reports at https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-asia-25-07-24/ #oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #markets #marketanalysis #derivatives #derivativestrading...
Jul 27, 2024•16 min
All of last week, Brent futures were comfortably trading at $85/bbl. Now (at time of recording), they're trading around $82.50/bbl. There is a definite bearish turn to the rangebound wave we were in last week. WTI has seen more bullish interest, and it's just entered negative handles in CTA data. WTI also sold off aggressively on 19th July from $81/bbl to $78/bbl. Volatility has also risen significantly for both Brent and WTI - especially in comparison to low volatility all year. Overall, refine...
Jul 23, 2024•50 min•Season 6Ep. 36
Macro Specialist James Brodie and Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic weigh in on the latest news in the presidential campaign, discussing who the Democratic Party will select as a replacement for Joe Biden as their candidate, who will likely be chosen as a running mate, how Donald Trump’s could react, and subsequently how these critical decisions may affect markets. US June retail sales remain unchanged (0.0% m/m; est. -0.3%) while industrial production is up +0.6% m/m (est. +0.3%). Powell said ...
Jul 22, 2024•31 min
Although the market and the narrative want to be bullish, there's no impetus for it to be there. It's a weak week in Brent futures, after being within in touching distance of $88/bbl. We've seen both long and short prod/merc in Brent 200mb in 2 weeks in Sep 0I. The team explains why bearish economic data from China is adding to the pressure of oil prices. Greg, James, Martha and Vincent discuss Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia having to submit compensation plans for exceeding quotas in 2024. The OPE...
Jul 17, 2024•32 min•Season 6Ep. 35
