U.S. CPI was lower than expected, (-0.1% MoM, 3.0% YoY), while U.S. PPI came in higher than expected (U.S. June producer prices rise 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.3%). Chinese CPI was on the cusp of deflation again (CPI +0.2% YoY, PPI -0.8% YoY) and Chinese GDP and retail sales were weaker than expected (Q2 GDP 4.7% y/y estimated +5.1%). James and Harry dive into Chinese New Homes Index data which shows new home prices falling 4.5% YoY in June 2024, the most in 9 years. This data comes despite Beijing attem...
Jul 15, 2024•22 min
Brent futures climbed towards $88 before settling around $85.50. Money managers increased their long positions in Brent for the third consecutive week, indicating bullish sentiment European M1 refinery margins softened in the week but remained profitable at $6.40/bbl. Products saw weakness across the barrel but the upcoming hurricane season and potential disruption to US infrastructure raise questions about short-term price movements. Dreadful US data, including a contraction in manufacturing an...
Jul 09, 2024•41 min•Season 6Ep. 34
Today, macro specialist James Brodie and research analyst Harry Nedeljkovic discuss Sunday’s French legislative election second round and Thursday’s UK General Election followed by their respective impacts on global markets and geopolitics. James and Harry also cover US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data for June, FOMC minutes, German and French industrial production, and perhaps most significantly, US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data. The key data to look out for this week is: Tuesd...
Jul 08, 2024•27 min
Brent crude prices have had a strong week, continuing to rally at $87/bbl. The latest CFTC data indicates that the market has become balanced and neutral in positioning. This presents an opportunity for bullish investors to take action, with legacy positions and new entrants supporting this trend. However, macroeconomic news doesn't fully support this bullish outlook. Economic data from China and the US is weak, with China's manufacturing sector contracting for the second consecutive month and s...
Jul 02, 2024•30 min•Season 6Ep. 33
Today, Macro specialist James Brodie and Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic discuss the impact of the first round of results of the French election, along with the upcoming UK and US elections and their economic impacts. James and Harry also cover the Japanese Yen, European inflation, and Guyana's economic growth due to Exxon and partners' investment to develop Starbroek oil and gas field. Finally, they cover Ferrari's growing stock and Volkswagon's $5 billion investment in Rivian. The key data ...
Jul 01, 2024•34 min
For a special podcast episode, Group Chief Executive Greg Newman is joined by Senior Commercial Associate Remona Tefaj and Business Development Associate Melis Varol for a discussion regarding CFTC COT reports and the significance of third party data sets. Greg, Remona, and Melis delve into the scope of the information provided by the CFTC, how using supplemental third-party data can provide an expansive interpretation of current trader positioning for the whole oil market, and the sales team's ...
Jun 28, 2024•55 min
Group Chief Investment Officer and Onyx Co-Founder Omar Kayaam joins Group Chief Executive Officer Greg Newman to reflect on how they've scaled the business over the last year. They discuss the big moves that have propelled the business, including hiring experts, developing the technology arm of Onyx, buying out investors, expanding to new offices, and more. Eight years after founding the company, Omar and Greg address how they finally found the right team to navigate the evolving industry and c...
Jun 27, 2024•46 min•Season 6Ep. 30
We saw extremely rangebound prices in crude this week, with the September Brent futures contract hovering between $84/bbl and $85/bbl. The team discuss the nature of the oil market, what's going on with Dated Brent, volatility, US jet fuel demand, and the upcoming US election debate. Not to mention, Jorge "The Regulator" weighs in on the current state of benchmarks and conspiracy theories. Refinery margins have been relatively rangebound, although a weakened crude flat price supported margins th...
Jun 26, 2024•27 min•Season 6Ep. 28
Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian sits down with Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss the latest macroeconomic news, risks, and trends. They analyse recent Chinese industrial production and retail sales data, which shows China's industrial production printing below expectations in May, at 5.6% year-on-year, while at 3.7%, retail sales beat expectations. They also discuss US industrial output, which rose 0.9% in May, and take a deep dive into recent US housing and building perm...
Jun 24, 2024•49 min
For a special episode of World of Oil Derivatives, Group Chief Executive Greg Newman is joined by Managing Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian for a detailed discussion regarding global oil demand. Greg, Jorge, and Harry delve into the differing perspectives on oil demand from two major agencies, the IEA and OPEC, focusing on their projections for both short and long-term global oil demand growth. The discussion highlights the growing conte...
Jun 20, 2024•54 min
We saw a very strong performance in crudethis week, with Brent futures already up to $84/bbl. The team discuss market dynamics, emphasizing the shift from deep contango to backwardation in crude structure. After a recent positional reset, the market appears more balanced, with summer demand looking healthy. The team go on to discuss the history of repricing in the oil markets, with Greg noting that big market moves often come from unexpected events. For example: recession expectations in the pas...
Jun 18, 2024•51 min•Season 6Ep. 28
Today, Macro specialist James Brodie discusses last week's weaker than expected US economic data, as well as the more hawkish Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank. Research Analyst, Harry Nedeljkovic weighs in on the up-coming French election, in addition to Argentina and especially their economic situation. Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian joins Macro Mondays for the first time to talk through how the recent data out of China may come to impact oil demand. CPI & PPI both came ...
Jun 17, 2024•39 min
Brent is back in the $80’s this week after a huge rebound and initial sell-off post-OPEC meeting. Crude flat prices are back to where we were pre-OPEC meeting, as the August contract fell to lows of $77/bbl before climbing all the way back up to $82/bbl this morning. The M1 refinery margins in Europe continue to weaken this week by nearly $0.35/bbl; however, the same in Asia climbed by $0.55/bbl this week. Asian margins appear to be picking up compared to how low they were at the end of May. The...
Jun 11, 2024•36 min•Season 6Ep. 27
Macro-Economic Specialist James Brodie is joined by Onyx Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss what's been happening in the markets, including Friday's US pay roll data, The European elections over the weekend and the big moves in gold. James and Harry will also discuss the Trade of the week, EURUSD and GameStop. Friday's US payroll data saw 272,000 jobs created last month, much higher than expect the expected 180,000 jobs, which took the market by surprise, resulting in yields being ram...
Jun 10, 2024•27 min
Brent Futures have been extremely bearish following US markets open, dropping to $77/bbl Monday morning. It’s all about OPEC, as the meeting over the weekend saw existing voluntary cuts extended into September 2024. This move hinted at OPEC's willingness to bring back barrels to the market. However, doubts remain about compliance from certain members and future global demand growth. Refinery margins are overall weak, with low US gasoline demand and overall US weakness permeating the European mar...
Jun 04, 2024•47 min•Season 6Ep. 26
NVIDIA and GameStop are back in the news headlines this week. On Monday morning we saw GameStop up 85% after hours in the overnight trading session. Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, came out on Sunday night on his social media accounts to reveal that he owns $115.7 million of GameStop equity. NVIDIA is now 40% of the S&P growth this year. The Nasdaq had an interesting price movement on Friday, with key support at 18,4014. The market tried to break below on Friday, but in the last 20 minutes of...
Jun 03, 2024•17 min
Brent Futures have been volatile and rangebound this week, dropping to around $81/bbl and supported again over $84/bbl. With the OPEC meeting next week (and being held online), there's been conversation that Russia has overproduced oil output, but will be correcting lower after not adhering to the April quota due to over production. This audit will be used to update production baselines. Biden announced he was releasing a million barrels of gasoline from the northeast gasoline supply reserve ahe...
May 29, 2024•1 hr•Season 6Ep. 25
On today's show, James focuses on the stronger-than-expected US economic data, which has pushed yields higher. He also discusses the growing concerns around employment, the booming Indian economy, weakening UKL data, and unfortunate timing with the election looming. Some charts and trade ideas that James discusses include NVIDIA, Nasdaq, silver, copper, and USDJPY. If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrb...
May 27, 2024•20 min
Group Chief Executive Officer, Greg Newman sits down with Group Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Chen to discuss the importance of people, leadership, planning, debt, investment and risk in scaling a business from a start up to a supersonic company. Greg and Andrew, both experts in their fields, dive into the psychology of what motivates individuals in the workplace and how comparison can be the thief of joy. They reflect on their leadership style and how their managers from their formative caree...
May 23, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Crude futures climbed over the week, surpassing $84/bbl on Monday morning, which was the f ir st weekly gain in 3 weeks. Heating oil and gas oil were the most negative in the refinery margin change this week. We saw strength come back into EBOB and Gasoil which has helped the products we look at in the swaps market in Europe see greater strength. James says the macro news last week was the US CPI data, which is falling again. There was also weaker than expected retail sales and industrial produc...
May 21, 2024•41 min•Season 6Ep. 23
On today's show, James discusses the recent break out in the equity markets, and the huge surge higher in commodities with a particular focus on silver. Copper and Gold are at all-time highs and silver has broken out aggressively from of a key resistance level at $30, which previously acted as triple top. Nickle, Tin, Zinc, Aluminium and other metals are surging higher and even orange juice is trading at all-time highs. Last week's data has created some interesting moves in the markets. US CPI c...
May 20, 2024•18 min
Brent crude is consolidating around $82-83/bbl. The big story over the weekend was Iraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdu l , saying on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to renew cuts, but flipped on Sunday, saying that Iraq will continue to cooperate with other member states about this cut. Looking to the refinery margins, spreads have collapsed with stop outs driving the movement. There was a significant drop in RBBR, down to just $21.50/bbl in Jul. There has been a build in EIA gasoline stocks (90...
May 14, 2024•31 min
Welcome back to Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. On today's show James looks back on last week's disappointing data, this weeks upcoming CPI data, and key levels in markets, particularly looking at equities, fixed income and also gold. Precious metals are rallying again. The PBOC bought gold for 18th straight month in April, adding 60k Troy ounces to its reserves. In fact, Global central banks have bought 2,100 tonnes of gold in the last 2 years. James digs into why...
May 13, 2024•19 min
If you would like to access our free comprehensive monthly oil report as mentioned in the podcast, click here: https://www.onyxhub.co/dashboards/oil-market-report-may/ In last week's podcast, we had started to see pressure in the crude futures contracts, and we've slid to a new low of this cycle today at $82.30/bbl. Refinery margins were the major reason for bullish Brent over the past few months, however now it’s the major reason market sentiment has flipped. Margins have strengthened slightly ...
May 08, 2024•39 min•Season 6Ep. 21
Welcome back to the third episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. On today's show James discusses softening economic data out of the US, where there are murmurs of stagflation, the less hawkish Fed Chairman Powell and the weaker than expected employment data. He also examines the big movers for this week. USDJPY with 2 rounds of intervention and cocoa has also fallen 41.5% in just 3 days. There's no key economic data in the week ahead so the market will trend of...
May 06, 2024•15 min•Season 1Ep. 3
Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline. Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed in gasol...
Apr 30, 2024•38 min•Season 6Ep. 20
Welcome back to the second episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. On today's show James discusses recent mixed economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the Yen volatility. He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver, tech and equity markets. Looking at recent employment data, James explains that although employment data is strong, the jobs that are being created are part time jobs and full time jobs are being lost. In fact, 1.34 million fulltime j...
Apr 29, 2024•16 min
Looking at the past week, the oil market was too long and had to de-risk. Brent Futures saw a week of stagnation and mean reversion, $90/bbl oil was very short lived and sell-off was driven by speculative positioning cycles as market participants took off length amid a waning geopolitical premium. Looking to the refinery margin change, Dated Brent was weaker than last week and is now seeing a little bit of support, whilst gasoil continued to weaken. Martha notes the difference between the straig...
Apr 23, 2024•44 min•Season 6Ep. 19
Onyx Capital Group is proud to launch a brand new show; Macro Monday's with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. On today's show James discusses recent strong economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the US dollar strength. He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver and equity markets. It seems like tech stocks are crashing at the moment, with Nvidia -21.8 from ATH and Tesla down 49.4% from its all-time high. James walks us through recent US unemployment data and lets us kn...
Apr 23, 2024•23 min
Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each! There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players. The refine...
Apr 16, 2024•33 min•Season 6Ep. 18
