Macro Mondays | The Impact of Trump’s Attempted Assassination on the Market

U.S. CPI was lower than expected, (-0.1% MoM, 3.0% YoY), while U.S. PPI came in higher than expected (U.S. June producer prices rise 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.3%).

Chinese CPI was on the cusp of deflation again (CPI +0.2% YoY, PPI -0.8% YoY) and Chinese GDP and retail sales were weaker than expected (Q2 GDP 4.7% y/y estimated +5.1%).

James and Harry dive into Chinese New Homes Index data which shows new home prices falling 4.5% YoY in June 2024, the most in 9 years. This data comes despite Beijing attempting to mitigate the impact of a prolonged property downturn and weak economic recovery.

Off the back of Donald Trump’s attempted assassination on the weekend, Harry discusses the impact the event is having and will have on U.S. swing states and why the event caused a Bitcoin rally.
James Brodie’s chart of the week is Gold, which is rallying and approaching $2,430.

The key data releases this week are:
Monday 15 July – Fed Chair Powell to speak
Tuesday 16 July – U.S. June retail sales
Thursday 18 July – Philly Fed manufacturing data