Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions. EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up financ...
Apr 11, 2024•43 min•Season 6Ep. 17
Brent Futures have made a notable climb since last week, hitting $89/bbl on Tuesday morning. It's crucial to analyse the impact of recent developments on oil demand. Notably, both China and the USA have seen expansions in manufacturing activity, marking significant milestones. What has been the impact of headlines regarding tighter supply and the possible contagion of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East? Examining the refinery margin, we observed a supportive trend in the Dated market. Howev...
Apr 02, 2024•35 min•Season 6Ep. 16
Brent futures surged to $87.70 last week, only to encounter resistance and profit-taking flows, settling this week at a sturdy $85-86/bbl range. Macroeconomic factors and persistent supply concerns are pivotal in sustaining these levels. Refinery margins face widespread pressure across regions, while the gasoil market sentiment remains subdued amidst spring demand and increased freight, notably from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a glimmer of hope for c...
Mar 26, 2024•37 min•Season 6Ep. 15
In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Co-Head of Light Ends, Jasper Bird. Jasper and Greg shed light on the realities of being a Trader, how egos can play a part in trading, and uncover the inner workings of a trader's mentality. They delve into the highs and lows of trading and the challenges of maintaining social and entertainment balance as you age in the industry. With over 6 years of experience at Onyx Capital Group, Jasper opens up about his j...
Mar 21, 2024•36 min•Season 6Ep. 14
With Group CEO Greg Newman abroad, Light Ends Direct Trader James Todd steps up to host World of Oil Derivatives for another market update episode. Since last week, Brent Futures price rallied from sub $83/bbl this week to over $87.50/bbl yesterday. The breakout from its previous range came on the back of a flurry of bullish headlines - including drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, draws in both crude and gasoline inventories in the US, and positive Chinese economic data. Looking to the...
Mar 20, 2024•40 min•Season 6Ep. 13
Crude flat price has been remarkably neutral in the past week, sitting around $82/bbl (slightly down from $83/bbl). However, the market has found a genuine equilibrium - a price level where everyone seems happy. Looking to the refinery margin, Naphtha showed significant strength with the MOPJ crack for April exceeding -$5/bbl, while Mar/Apr in the NWE region remained robust at $20/mt. Gasnaphs saw a rise from $185 to $195/mt for April, which drew bids at the relatively cheaper levels. EBOB exper...
Mar 13, 2024•30 min•Season 6Ep. 12
Oil markets are all of a sudden kicking into gear, and it seems we are now on that highway to the danger zone. With every market indicator of the underlying physical market strong, and forward derivative prices indicating that this will last for some time, the only thing left to truly perform is the outright price. Will this carry through? And will the danger zone of inflation, demand destruction and overextension grip oil markets once again? It’s been a bullish week in the crude market, which c...
Mar 05, 2024•36 min•Season 6Ep. 11
It's been another rangebound, albeit less bullish week in Brent futures. Crude prices came off from around $84/bbl. down to the low 80s, where it found some support on Monday. As for the refinery margin change, Dated Brent is significantly weaker. There were some significant moves in gasoline and gasoil. The latter saw a real weakness in prices amid poor European demand. Martha also looked into American refinery margins, which is also weak across the whole gasoil complex and heating oil especial...
Feb 27, 2024•26 min•Season 6Ep. 10
In a special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Group CEO Greg Newman sits down with Jorge Montepeque, the new Managing Director - Benchmarking. Jorge, an industry legend, pioneered oil pricing by introducing benchmarks, revolutionising communication across different sites worldwide. When Greg first started trading, most traders relied on Yahoo Messenger for precise time stamps. Then came Jorge, reinventing communication, making it faster and introducing a platform enabling traders t...
Feb 23, 2024•51 min•Season 6Ep. 9
It's been a bullish week for crude flat price this week and has been supported above $80 levels, reaching a peak of $85.50, which is seemingly finding resistance at current levels. However, overall market sentiment has been quite bullish from both hedge funds and speculators alike. As for refinery margins; there's been a week-on-week decline of nearly $3/bbl in the prompt. Currently on a downtrend but where will it find support? Looking at oil from a macro perspective, China has cut the five-yea...
Feb 20, 2024•23 min
Last week, Brent crude flat price rallied, pushing up over $80/bbl and staying there since then. The rejected ceasefire deal on Feb 06 supported this bullish momentum. We've seen strength across refinery margins - particularly in Europe - with a notable rally in product prices, including strong bidding in the physical market. Greg, Martha, and James discuss ongoing geopolitical conflict, refinery outages, and potential oversaturation due to early positioning in Q3 and the need to balance refiner...
Feb 13, 2024•32 min•Season 6Ep. 7
Brent futures softened from over $80 last week, to stabalise around $78/bbl on Feb 6. Geopolitically, tensions persist in the Middle East with ongoing conflicts and ceasefire talks proving elusive. Despite positive economic indicators, market enthusiasm appears lacking, reflected in WTI spreads in contango and a rangebound regime across the crude complex. As for the refinery margin change; the weakness in crude oil is impacting refined products. The Dated Brent market, with a lack of interest in...
Feb 06, 2024•50 min•Season 6Ep. 6
Brent futures spent most of the week with prices typically above $80 per barrel, recording a second week of gains. Geopolitical risk premiums strengthened, and positive economic news from the US, along with promising developments in China, contributed to the positive sentiment. As for refinery margins, it's been a positive week, with products driving the rally and support seen from every product down the barrel. Greg reflects on the paradox of the Dated Brent market, pivotal in global crude oil ...
Jan 30, 2024•31 min•Season 6Ep. 5
Brent futures saw sub $77/bbl levels on 17 Jan after poor economic data from China saw the GDP rise by 5.2% in Q4 compared to the forecast of 5.3%. CFTC data for the week to Jan 16, (in Brent futures) saw a continuation of a more bullish sentiment, with bullish speculators adding almost 15mbbls (+5%) of length, whilst their bearish counterparts decreased their short positioning by 1.5mbbls (-2%). In WTI, a more bearish stance was seen. Bulls removed over 5mbbls (-2.5%) of long positions, whilst ...
Jan 23, 2024•40 min
Onyx Director Jonah Van Bourg discusses his extremely eventful career thus far with CEO Greg Newman. From how his experience working at Goldman Sachs and Vitol, to working on the floor on Lehman Brother's floor, in the midst of the biggest bankruptcy in American history. Jonah discusses his experience in crypto trading and sheds light on how crypto and oil are incredibly similar commodities in a lot of ways, drawing parallels to their shaky beginnings, where people had discovered it, but didn't ...
Jan 19, 2024•52 min•Season 6Ep. 3
Supply and demand modelling is no longer enough to accurately determine market value. The recent market has been a perfect illustration of this in key differentials in the oil market, which have been driven by stop outs, pushing market prices against the fundamental consensus. Example discussed are the North Sea differential rally in prompt DFLs, Brent Dubai's move against market consensus and propane volatility in US contracts. Onyx Capital Group CEO joins Research Associates Martha Dowding and...
Jan 16, 2024•44 min•Season 6Ep. 2
World of Oil Derivatives is back for 2024! With a new year, traders, market analysts and market observers are looking for a consensus. Research houses are making their claims, and banks their forecasts, and it will still be 1-2 months before we hear from trade houses and majors about their outlook for the year. So could the global economy surprise us to the upside this year? Could we get lower interest rates that brings on a risk on move in macro markets? Or, as always, could there be a geopolit...
Jan 09, 2024•36 min•Season 6Ep. 1
In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Onyx Capital Group CEO is joined by Onyx Partner and Head of Desk for NGL, Luke Mcdermott. Luke discusses his years of experience in the industry and the minutia of NGL’s. Most importantly Luke discusses the current situation of the Panama Canal and what that means for Traders and the economy. Chapters for this episode are: 0:00 Welcome 1:14 NGLs 2:53 Shipping 6:50 Saudi shipping & market share 13:11 Europe, Asia & US 14:53 Panama Canal 1...
Dec 22, 2023•50 min•Season 5Ep. 43
The resolution of the OPEC drama has brought contentment to market players as they embrace a stable oil price in the low 70s. Despite this relief, demand concerns persist as Brent spreads remain in contango until April/May'24, indicating a prevailing weak physical sentiment in the market. Complicating matters, a geopolitical risk premium hangs over the Red Sea, prompting commercial shipping companies to avoid the area. Instead, vessels are rerouted through the safer but longer passage around the...
Dec 19, 2023•39 min•Season 5Ep. 42
In the latest developments in the global oil market, bearish sentiment has taken hold as OPEC cuts clash with the surge in non-OPEC production (notably from the United States and Guyana). The market is treading cautiously, adopting a risk-off stance as it awaits crucial macroeconomic headlines. Investors are on edge in anticipation of the CPI report on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Brent crude has found stability, settling around the mid-70s, a level deemed com...
Dec 12, 2023•32 min•Season 5Ep. 41
Industry Legend and Director of Levmet, Kurt Chapman, joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the evolution of the Dated Brent market. Kurt discusses his plethora of experience in the physical and financial markets. He graduated from Harvard University with a BA in Economics and went on to serve as an Infantry Officer in the US Marine Corps. He explains how his time in the Marines prepared him for life as a Commodity Trader. His wide-spanning trading career started on Wall Street in the '80s, wher...
Dec 07, 2023•55 min•Season 5Ep. 40
Onyx Research Associate Martha Downing joins CEO Greg Newman with a market update and the pair discuss how the markets were affected pre and post OPEC meeting. Martha informs us how the refinery margin changed. Crude and the products are still weak and gasoil is weighing down the margins in both regions. The end of last month saw players holding their MOPJ, which is Asian naphtha into pricing, which is going to continue to bolster the spread. Martha recommends MOC in gasoline as her one to watch...
Dec 05, 2023•36 min•Season 5Ep. 38
In this episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Chief Technology Officer Ishaan Hemnani joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the vital role of technology in the oil derivatives industry. Ishaan is an extremely unique and rare person within the industry, having experience as Fuel Trader, before pivoting into technology and creating Bunker X, which has become the playbook for many in the oil industry. Ishaan and Greg discuss how they came to work together and why Ishaan chose to move over ...
Nov 30, 2023•42 min•Season 5Ep. 38
A volatile market influenced by OPEC headlines is still leaving oil markets sitting anxiously in “wait and see” mode. With the anticipation surrounding the upcoming OPEC meeting, Brent crude has been oscillating around $80. The market is expecting OPEC to deepen existing cuts, with fundamentals largely skewed to the downside. Refinery margins have been improving week on week due to crude weakness although we're seeing weakness down the barrel in the products. There was an improvement of over a d...
Nov 28, 2023•23 min•Season 5Ep. 37
Oil market participants are anxiously in “wait and see” mode ahead of the OPEC meeting and Greg shares his presentation summarizing market sentiment over recent months. Greg discusses the current state of oil markets, highlighting a recent sell-off in Brent crude below $90 per barrel at the beginning of Q4. The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and a subsequent overcorrection, led to prices briefly dropping below $80. RINs have been weak with news of a strong soybean harvest supporting biofuel...
Nov 22, 2023•32 min•Season 5Ep. 36
In this special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, hosted by Onyx Capital Group's CEO Greg Newman, we sit down with Chief Revenue Officer Miles Hempsall to discuss Miles' journey within the world of oil derivatives. Miles shares his ethos on building commercial success, the challenges and opportunities of creating value in research and data businesses, and his vision for the future of Onyx in this open and candid discussion. To watch the Video Podcast, click here https://www.youtube....
Nov 16, 2023•45 min•Season 5Ep. 35
Onyx Research Analyst Martha Dowding joins Onyx Capital Group CEO Greg Newman for a market update, a discussion on the growth of oil demand growth (noting an increase to 4 million barrels per day despite challenges), and Martha recommends her Trade Idea of the week is to long the Q1 regrade due to shifting weather forecasts in Asia. Greg expresses scepticism about forecasting demand and emphasizes the significance of the supply side, particularly the commitment to U.S. shale oil production. The ...
Nov 14, 2023•28 min•Season 5Ep. 34
The team discusses the current Brent flat price (around $83/bbl), with prices down due to concerns about China's economic situation and traders now discounting geopolitical risk. Greg, Vincent, and Martha mention a decline in managed money positions in recent weeks, contributing to an overall bearish outlook in the oil market. Vincent predicts the bullish factor in the market for Q4. Greg expresses a lack of confidence in the direction of the crude oil market due to various factors, including OP...
Nov 07, 2023•28 min•Season 5Ep. 33
Onyx Researchers Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg to discuss the main stories of the week, including the impact of the Israil / Gaza conflict on the market - Crude oil remains below $90/bbl and has fallen to $85/bbl week-on-week as Israel’s ground operations in Gaza remained limited, easing concerns of escalation into the wider region. The impact of weather on gasoil is discussed: the weather hasn’t been cold enough to inspire bullish attitudes and the weather is pretty mild for this time of yea...
Nov 01, 2023•37 min•Season 5Ep. 32
As another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, today we’ll hear from some of the women on the Onyx Team in Leadership roles. This episode is hosted by Alexandra Carlon, Head of Media & Marketing. She interviews Manny Sandhu, Head of Crude, Maria Boixados, Head of Direct Trading and Polly Cooper, Senior Associate Commercial Manager about the realities of Leadership in a predominately male industry. They have an open discussion about everything from their leadership styles to the importance...
Oct 26, 2023•36 min•Season 5Ep. 31
