Risks to risk parity | S6 E17

Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions. 

EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up financial markets. A significant move ensued yesterday (Wednesday 10th April) following yet another robust CPI print. Notably, 2-year bond yields surged a staggering 23 basis points, marking a substantial 4.6% increase on the day. 

Concurrently, the dollar strengthened by over 1%, sending equities futures tumbling by 1.4% on the open. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate position after adopting a dovish stance in Q4 2023, with the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) now pricing in just 42 basis points of cuts this year. As commodities face headwinds amidst tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar, James, Greg and Martha analyse the implications for investors and the broader economic landscape. 

The trade idea for this week is to short the May/Jun C3 CP spread. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8N2bNTOYOqc

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome 
1:43 This week in trading 
5:58 Macro market news 
25:00 Refinery margins 
34:04 Ones to watch
41:43 Poll results and outro