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This summer has not been very kind to GlassesWare's with all the humidity and rain. It's gonna end up being like that Jordan Peel meme. Like the sweatshirt is just pouring down. She's gonna be like sweating, sweating, bullets as we go. It's because I'm such a tough interviewer, Carlos.
Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druke. One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift amongst Latino voters towards Republicans. The 8 percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest shift of any racial or ethnic minority.
The racial or ethnic group in either direction, though Biden still won the group by roughly 30 percentage points overall. But the erosion of support for Democrats didn't stop there. In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states from the research group Eki's in May, Biden was leading Trump amongst Latino voters by only 5 percentage points. And poll after poll showed Biden's biggest drops in support since taking office to be amongst Latinos and young people.
Well, Biden is no longer in the race. And so many of the trends that we've covered from the past three and a half years may or may not be relevant in this new dynamic. A dynamic in which as of today, Harris leads Trump by almost 3 percentage points in our national polling average.
So where do Latino voters stand today? Luckily for us, our friend Carlos or Dio co-founder of Eki's research just wrapped up a new round of polling of Latino voters. And he's joining us today while in the podcast, Carlos. Good to be back, Galen. So great to have you. Let's start with the basics. Where did you poll and what did you find?
Yeah, so we go back in in the battleground polls with some regularities. This is our fifth wave this cycle. We were actually scheduled to go in around the day that Joe Biden made his announcement that the president made his announcement. In fact, that very Sunday, we had to call the team and say activate coconut protocol.
Just to swap out the questionnaire. We were going to start using and bring in the new questionnaire that specifically asked Harris versus Trump in addition to some other questions. And so we were in the field from July 22nd to August 4th. And we poll in 12 states, but then we also wait separately to the seven most competitive states as well.
Okay. And so roughly what you find. So roughly, we saw what we would call a full on reset. As you mentioned, when we had pilast pulled in June, Biden was only up five in those seven toss up states. What we were seeing was Harris up 19 among Latinos in those same battleground states. So that is by any stretch, a dramatic swing over a very short period of time.
And when I say more than anything, it just looked like a return to numbers being in what we would call a traditionally normal historic range. Although it seems like still down, right? Harris leading Trump by 19 percentage points amongst Latinos is still not doing as well as Biden did in 2020.
And certainly not doing as well as Clinton did in 2016. How far off are Democrats? And would you say it's sort of still early days in that it seems like they could continue to pick up support or that it's still early days in the sense that Republicans now have the opportunity to define Kamala Harris negatively. And actually there could be a further erosion from where we are now.
So a lot of the polling that we were seeing earlier this year from Eki's from others as well. Provided fodder for a conversation about some sort of wider partisan realignment among Latino voters. We were seeing numbers where frankly it was hard to tell what was real, what was actual movement in the electorate, what was just voters venting their frustration via the person who called them on the phone and asked them how they're doing and who they're going to vote for versus polling areas, right?
That were hard for us to fix with our normal waiting schemes. Here again, it looks somewhat more like a reset to things that we had expected to see in the past. The wide partisan realignment seems to be out the table. Where at one point you could have a semi reasonable debate over whether Donald Trump had a chance to win over Latinos under the age of 30. We don't believe that is at all on the table anymore.
What we are is we're back though into the range of what the Trump era has been the 2020 2022 elections where Trump did better than Democrats had been doing in the Obama era. So Harris today is still tracking from the Biden 2020 levels by about four or five points. So she's down four or five points from where Biden was in 2020. With some state variation, she is still off the track of where Biden was in 2020 but tracking in that direction.
To your point about the debate folks were having about the accuracy of the polls and specifically polls of Latinos during the sort of ladder a couple years of Biden's tenure, you're using the same exact methodology, polling the same places and finding dramatically different results, which makes me wonder were those results that you were getting that everyone was questioning real. I mean, it makes me think that's further evidence that that was a major shift.
Right. We still won't know whether the whether any of this polling is right until afterwards by its very nature. However, I think we can say yes, there was something real going on.
What we still don't know is was that real that people had changed their allegiances and at the end of the day we're going to vote for Donald Trump or was it that we were picking up on real discontent where people felt like they had a Sophie's choice when it came to the presidential race and you saw them almost wrestling with it.
So I think it was real undoubtedly. I think it was that matchup the Biden Trump rematch was scrambling people's brains was scrambling the calculations they would normally make. It's still I think difficult to say that it was going to be predictive of where people would end up at the end of the day, but I think what it was capturing was a true maelstrom in people's psychology.
How different is this reset from what we're seeing amongst other groups in the electorate is it unique that Latino voters were quite down on Biden and have really turned around in a dramatic fashion on Harris. Are we seeing that across the electorate? It does seem like there is something going on across the electorate. However, Latinos are a swing year element of the electorate. You're seeing some of the greatest movement away from Biden among Latinos.
And so if you are going to rebound more to normal levels, it makes sense that that rebound the shift is going to be bigger among Hispanics. The Pew survey that just came out over the last few days seems to show the biggest shifts among Hispanics. I wouldn't put too much into the size or the magnitude of any of the shifts we're seeing at this point. I do think in general you are seeing improvement among more dem leaning voters.
It just so happens that the dem leaning voters who are seemed most disgruntled as of a few months, if not weeks ago, were Latino. And so then my question is why right one answer could be that Latino voters are particularly swinging, but then you could then again ask why. So is it specific to Harris's identity? Is it specific to Biden? Folks just really didn't like Biden. And so it doesn't matter who the other person is if he had been replaced by Gavin Newsom, the same thing would have happened.
Or is it something specific to Harris? Okay, I've come on a few times and said Latinos are swinging here with the others. So I do feel like I owe an explanation for why I say that. The reality is that Latinos, and by the way, this is also true of A.P.I. voters and other immigrant heavy pieces of the American electorate is that there is less partisan integration.
You know, where you pick up your party allegiance, you pick it up at the dinner table, you pick it up at school, you pick it up at college, you pick it up at your church. If you come from an immigrant household, it is less likely that you have parents who had some sort of strong party identity that they were passing on to you.
If you didn't go to college, obviously you are not going to have that same experience. If you don't grew up in a neighborhood where other people are also very political and are participating in the same way, you aren't going to have a partisan identity. So it is unique in its way to being part of an immigrant heavy community, closer to immigrant experiences, and also true of being very young, right? Latinos are a younger electorate overall.
And so what you had going into an election even like 2020 was a lot of swing your quote unquote Latino voters, meaning Latinos who don't have a very strong partisan attachment. But the thing about the swing Latinos is they tended in the recent era to break for Democrats. All things being equal. The sense was all the cues are pointing toward me voting for the Democrat. And so I'm going to vote for a Democrat. However, that is a borrowed vote.
The Obama era gave the mistaken impression that it meant that it was a hard and fast partisan loyalty when reality is more of a borrowed vote. And so those are the kinds of voters that when you get into the last couple of years that we have faced as a country, as a world, people have felt beleaguered by crisis.
You had inflation, you have the border moving into the cities, you had school shootings, you had wars. In this midst of discontent, the choice people had if you were someone who didn't feel very strongly attached to a party was between on one side, the status quo, a president who you feel kind of cares more about you, but really is not someone who you have a lot of confidence to get you out of the current crisis or option B.
The old guy, the old president, who you know all his baggage and there are a lot of reasons that you are concerned about him, but you know what I had more money in my pocket when he was president. And so you had a real Sophie's choice.
Kamala Harris represents option C, turn the page. And so when she comes in, it allows people who at the end of the day are more democratic leaning who do want to vote for the newer fresher cooler candidate who want to go along with frankly what the rest of your social group is doing. And Kamala Harris creates an avenue and a ramp for you to do that without while still holding on to some of the discontent you felt over the last two years.
So you don't think it's something specific to Kamala Harris. It's something specific to not being Biden or Trump. It's certainly both. I don't know what mix I put on. I would say like Kamala Harris is unique in that the snapshot that voters got of her almost immediately was of someone who this is from focus groups. Someone who seems like they looked the part. They seem new and fresh. They seem strong. They seem vibrant. Vibrant was a word that was used in a couple of the groups.
And so there is something about her where the snapshot people had of her was she does represent a turning of the page. If that is something that you were looking for. So it is combined that it is a way to an outlet for people who are frustrated. Here's another option. I can choose option C. I don't have to go with what felt like to stale options. And at the same time that she was. It seems well positioned to capture that energy to that point about whether there is specific appeal.
For Harris. I want to play an ad that the Harris campaign recently released targeting Latino voters called determination was this one won't later listen to one from Trump. But here it is. When you're raised by an immigrant mother, you learn what's possible with the termination. And the termination is how Kamala Harris went from working in McDonald's to prosecutor. State Attorney General, you a senator and our vice president in only one generation and with that same determination.
She always defended us as a prosecutor. She protected us from violent criminals as attorney general. She beat the banks that kicked families out of their homes as our vice president. She fights for women's reproductive rights every day. And she beat the pharmaceutical companies to lower costs for insulin and prescriptions as our president. The termination is how she'll stop the corporations who gouge our families on rent and groceries.
And she won't stop fighting until we win because she knows with the termination when we fight we win. I'm Kamala Harris and I approve this message. So actually Carlos, the thing that stands out to me about that ad is that apart from the voiceover and maybe some of the background music and the images of the people that they're putting on screen.
It's really an ad that you would run for pretty much any median voter, you know, talking about the cost of housing and health care and dealing with crime in your community, etc. But as somebody who does this for a living and tries to understand how to appeal to Latino voters, what did you take away from that? So in many ways, this is really hewing very close to what I'd call are the best practices for communicating to Latino voters in English.
Because you can think about how hard it is actually to do that that you are trying to do an ad in English to a group of people where you know that a lot of people who are going to watch it are not exclusively Latino. But you're trying to somehow make the Latino audience feel included. You're saying this is for you to I am inviting you. I'm not othering you. I'm not pandering to you.
But I want you to feel like this ad is for you to and I'm doing something that is especially resident for someone who identifies as Hispanic. And so yes, most of the message is going to be similar. Right. Her experience as a prosecutor is very resident, a vision of America for all of us is very resident hitting a contrast with Trump that is more about him being out of touch and extreme.
But mostly focusing on introducing her and being positive at the same time that two things you have the fact that she's a child of immigrants, which is especially resident among Latino audiences. We saw this in some early message testing. We did around her and that you have some cultural cues within the ad as well, even just that the narrator is himself Latino. But you can tell that he has an accent that sounds Latino. Never in the ad does anyone ever say Latino the word Latino.
There are no stereotypical or like Kamala Harris will like fight for Latinos are never said explicitly and yet it is a Latino ad. And that's the sweet spot. That's the hard thing for campaigns to pull off and I do think in this one they start to landing. All right, let's listen to a recent Trump campaign ad geared towards Latino voters. We are American or curious and we believe in American dream. But Kamala Harris has lied. Fine economics is working.
So with that one Trump is talking about being a proud American believing in the American dream and under the Biden Harris administration having to suffer inflation and the rising costs of all kinds of things like groceries and gasoline and whatnot. From our conversations in the past, I know that Latino voters are amongst the most sort of enthusiastic about the American dream of any part of the American public or electorate. Look, I do think this is probably their best message.
I think their campaign knows that. I don't think don't Trump knows that. You know, he tried to do an economic event yesterday where he just couldn't stay on message. But it certainly would be the strongest way for them to go. And it's how it's actually the same exact ad that they were running against Biden, right? Well, I kind of laugh about this particular ad and you know, Caitlin jury from my team or research director was tweeting just about this yesterday because it boggles the mind.
They took the exact same ad that they were running in Spanish when it was Joe Biden and they just swapped in Kamala Harris. They changed some of the voiceover. They didn't even fully translate all of the text on screen. So some of the text on screen is in English, some without some is in Spanish without any kind of consistent logic. And that sounds petty. That sounds like only somebody like us who watches every single ad that comes out there would care.
But I will say when an ad is constructed in a culturally competent manner, when it is clear that people put attention to it, the audience knows. That is why so much of getting the details right matters because you understand when you are an afterthought versus when you're being specifically targeted.
That said, I do think that they were smart to go up in Spanish. And I think they were smart to go up in Spanish with this kind of messaging because a lot of the swing vote right now actually is very Spanish speaking as much as we like to remind everybody. Most Latinos are going to see your ad in English. There is a significant portion of the swing Latino audience. In fact, the swing Latino audience is more likely to get news in Spanish is more likely to speak language Spanish at home.
And so it has both an instrumental value and a symbolic value that you are communicating in Spanish because it is yet another way to kind of help people feel invited to the party. One thing that is notable in all of this is that we didn't hear a single word about immigration or the border directly in either of those campaign ads.
And on one hand, I think it is silly that when we talk about Latino voters, people focus in on the border so much because there is no reason we know this from polling and maybe even just common sense. There is no reason that Latino voters who are citizens, so obviously they are voting would want one illegal immigration or folks taking advantage of asylum or whatnot any more than any other American would want those things.
And so to sort of question Latino voters uniquely on that sometimes feels a little off or even offensive to me, but that is oftentimes where the conversation lands. You know, oh, can Democrats be hawkish on the border while still keeping their numbers up amongst Latino voters will Republicans by being hawkish on the border put off Latino voters and whatnot.
What are you seeing today about how Latino voters view the debate over the border and illegal immigration or the sort of increased number of asylum applications. And Harris has since then communicated on the border. Trump has also been hitting her on the border her his first big ad out the gate not specifically targeted Latinos not Spanish, but certainly just broad general market was focused on the border. So it's certainly a part of their back and forth right now.
I say two things one, especially when it comes to Latinos right now so much of the campaign for Harris is about reassuring voters who, as I said in the past, already have a lot of reasons to break for Democrats who in the past have been dem leading. There is an effort to reassure and on one of those elements is just to reassure people that she's not some sort of radical when it comes to border that she's not going to open up the gates and let anybody in because when it comes to the border.
Americans, including Latinos, viewed as a law order concern in the course of the current debate. So people want to be reassured she's not some sort of radical on that issue and so she is communicating the way that stresses what she wants to see done on the border that she wants order at the border just like most Americans do.
In our other testing though we have also seen there is an opportunity for her to create a contrast on long term immigrants and so it's actually some of the most effective messages is on talking about Trump's deportation plans and contrasting that with what she would do.
Regardless of overall, you know, Brooklyn and Cala great superstar political scientists just came out with another study this week that showed that the greatest impact on the race are messages around Harris specifically introducing Harris positive on Harris.
Trump is such a defined figure that a lot of what will determine where the outcomes are is the filled in vision that people have of Kamala Harris by the end of this race positive information is what's moving the dial and so she is racing to fill in gaps in voters understanding of where she is before the other side can do that and clearly it's been having an effect.
Yeah, I mean to that point you looked specifically at double haters in the polling that you did and we had been for a while in a situation where about one in five Americans didn't like either Trump or Biden and that was sort of the group that we expected to decide this election.
And Latino is made up a good portion of those double haters what did you see sort of how did things settle out with Harris joining the race was it a lot of undecided taking a side was it people switching specifically from Trump to Harris underneath the hood what was happening with Latino voters. A little bit of a popery when you look at the gains Harris makes relative to where Biden was versus Trump some 56% of them were Biden 2020 voters.
You know only 5% were Trump 2020 voters the rest had voted in that election so you have a lot of Biden voters who were considering defection coming home 60% were under 40. She had a huge jump around under 40 Latinos Biden was at 43% among under 40 Latinos here is at 60% so you have a 17 point jump that's enormous at your point a third of the Harris gains came from double haters.
People who didn't like either Biden or Trump in fact in June 12% of registered Latinos in these battlegrounds were Biden Trump double haters they had an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. Today the Harris Trump double haters are 5% of Latinos so from 12% being double haters only 5% so she just scooped up a lot of the more discontented Latinos.
Yeah and in fact what we saw is that while most of her gains are among self identified liberals she also picked up notably amongst moderates and conservative Latinos. What's going on there. What are the big conversations around 2020 was that there was some ideological sorting going on were more conservative Latinos when the past have been held back from voting for Republicans kind of sorted themselves into what was quote unquote they're more natural home which was Trump and Republicans.
There was a question going into the midterms and the last two years whether Trump could make gains among moderates because that's where there would be the real pickup for Trump which if he could pick up some of those moderates and it seemed to be doing that. What we saw is a lot of those just going back to their previous position and so yes biggest gains 16 point gains among liberal but also gaining 12 points Harris over Biden among moderates 7 points among conservatives that's real movement.
The conservatives is mostly women but also a little bit of movement among the men as well and so some of the previous what we call identity force field that held a lot of people from voting for Republicans in the past seemed where it was flickering. It seemed to go back up and people were not fully going back to where we saw pre 2020 but you certainly saw people at least walking back to the starting line and saying okay let's give this race a fresh new look.
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Part of your analysis that stuck out the most to me was looking at folks who we expect to vote in 2024 who didn't vote in 2020 and amongst Latinos it looks like someone the range of 30 to 40% of the 2024 electorate will not have voted in the last presidential election whereas for the electorate overall that number looks a little bit more like 19%. So a large part of the Latino electorate didn't vote in 2020.
What does that mean in terms of sort of their impact on this race their party's and allegiances like why exactly as well is such a large part of the Latino electorate new voters. This is the I think the point that people push back on the most they they're just disbelieving they just don't think this is possible. But the reality is that if you look at catalyst analysis of 2020 40% of Latinos who voted in 2020 hadn't voted in 2016.
So I don't think it'll get quite as high as 40% but if you look at other elections it generally speaking it's in the range of the 30s who are new there is a lot of churn in the Latino electorate it is a fast growing electorate the number of Latinos who turn 18 every month is is incredible.
And staggering in fact less than 30% of Latinos registered today voted in the 2008 election I will say again less than 30% of Latinos registered today voted in 2008 for the overall population that's about 50% who voted 2008 so while much of our image our ideas are frameworks about Latino vote come from the Obama years.
There's a lot of new people since then and that's just how it goes when you study the Latino vote it is a critical fluid block are these newer voters yeah I'm one of them couldn't vote in 2008 happy to be part of the electorate now I'm just so young I'm so youthful always reminding us of your youth.
So a big chunk of Latinos 30 to 40% won't have voted in 2020 they are not just a consideration in terms of turnout but in terms of who they vote for the decision whether to vote and who to vote for often goes hand in hand in fact some of Trump's biggest gains in 2020 were among these lower propensity Latinos as someone call them and some of the biggest movement we saw from Biden to Harris was among this cohort so if you look at Latinos who are registered in 2020 but hadn't voted Trump was winning them as of a couple of months ago 50 to 30%.
Harris is now drawn even it's 4745 today among these kind of 2020 non voters there's also new registrants so people who had not been registered in the past they in the past were a reliable font of votes for Democrats that is part of how Democrats maintained these high support levels with the new people coming in were very democratic well Biden was getting kind of narrow margins he was only up six among those new registrants Harris today is up 5135 so 16 points.
So 16 points among new registrants so back to a little bit of what we've expected in the past although not quite what you were seeing like say 2008 or 2012. Yeah so much of the trends I think that we see have seen since the top of the ticket has changed is a reversion to some of the advantages that generic Democrats Democrats more broadly had so we had been in the situation where we were looking at battleground Senate polling across Arizona
Nevada the upper Midwest as well and seeing that reliably Democrats were winning in the Senate but that Biden was trailing them when it came to the presidency and the question was you know like how is it's going to sort itself out.
And it turns out that this really was a Biden problem and sort of when you have a generic Democrat then a lot of these trends that we've been seeing in the polls seem to revert to previous expectations the task for Republicans and the question for the next two and a half months is are they able to make Kamala Harris no longer a generic Democrat.
And I can't say you know like you were just saying when Harris takes shape as a politician what does that look like and how do people feel about it it's really sort of the task for both parties over the next two and a half months that will be interesting to observe and going hand in hand with that my final question here is we've been talking a little bit on this podcast about what motivates people policy or vibes.
I don't know that this is a fair question but like in the Biden Trump matchup you looked at a lot of these policy questions like on the economy on immigration on foreign affairs and whatnot and it was easy to tell a story about why people were voting for Trump they favored him on all of the things that they said that were most important to them and the two areas were Biden had the advantage was abortion and democracy.
Now things are a little more modeled on policy although Trump still has quite the advantage but when it comes to vibe when it comes to always a quote unquote change election it's a fresh new face it's just something different that dynamic has changed an awful lot and so I think if you was a very smart analyst on these things how do you make sense of what motivates people's vote choice and whether it is the policies that they sort of care a lot about.
In their daily lives and maybe feel strongly about one way or another between Democrats and Republicans or just people getting coconut piled people you know just band wagging somebody who feels like a winning candidate or whatnot. You have a smart audience so we can let them in on the dirty secret of democracy which is that people really aren't voting on policy they're not just sitting down and looking at both policy agendas and determining which they like more it is social.
You are thinking who is going to be better for people like me however you define that and actually a big part of what campaigns do is try to shape a sense of who people like me quote unquote are. So even the economy is not the economy the economy is a question of who do I think gets where me and my family are coming from is going to fight on my side and that's ultimately what people are going to decide.
So yes policy is an input it's not that it's irrelevant right especially when you have cross pressured voters where the social signals are pointing in two different directions and you get a tie breaker then yes who do I think is going to be better on this dimension might help tip in one way or the other it helps you decide which social identity to go with in that moment.
And so in a moment like this it is at the end of the day where vibes will come in is especially among a kind of voter who is not a regular Latino voter who doesn't closely follow the election they are experts in their lives but they are not experts in politics they are not listening to 538 podcast and they're not watching MSNBC God bless them.
So when it comes time to vote and whether to vote at all they're looking around the signals and saying okay based on everything I am seeing who is going to when they are in the White House and it's time to make a big decision who do I think is most likely to take somebody like me into consideration. And that's what all this is about is about shaping who voters have in mind when you ask them that question.
And it would seem like the best way to do this the most advantageous way to do this for a politician is to make the scope of who do I care about be the entire public right like make it as broad as possible super successful quasi celebrity politicians did the whole like I'm here for America I'm not here for Democrats or Republicans or White America or Black America or whatever.
I mean I guess you got a signal in certain ways that I see you but at the end of the day is it sort of like micro targeting that gets this done or is it a sort of a broad appeal campaign. I don't think it's a coincidence that the best testing message we saw for Kamala Harris is her vision for an America that works for all of us. The all is really important I've said this before.
When you look at a group like Latinos and this is true of other groups as well folks tend not to assume they're invited to the party they want to be invited to the party but they want to know that everybody else invited to and that's the balancing act gallon which is that you are trying to speak down to the individual we're trying to speak to groups and communities at the same time that you're trying to convey but don't worry I'm fighting for everybody just know that I have you in mind to because otherwise the generic default people just assume that they're left out especially the kind of marginal voter we're talking about who already almost
by definition feels like yeah I assume that I'm not who a politician is thinking about when it comes time to making decisions what we see the Trump era Trump has made some gains among Latinos who did feel cross pressured but the basic narrative about the parties hadn't fundamentally changed that at the other day there was a feeling that Democrats care more about Latinos.
I think the fight over this last piece and there are about 15% of Latinos who we still think are persuadable to know for one reason or another you can see something in their attitudes that you say you know what they might still go one way or the other those are voters that cannot be taken for granted the challenge for Trump to somehow convince those voters that they they he will be keeping them in mind when it comes time to making decisions they might be a little skeptical that whereas for Harris she has a little bit more of a head start in some ways and some important regards but her.
But her task is to reassure a significant portion of those persuadable Latinos that she has their best interests in minds when it comes to something like the economy because they felt so rocked in the last couple of years by inflation and by the other crisis that seemed to mount globally and in the United States.
All right well we always learn so much from talking to your callers thank you so much for joining me today thanks for having me my name is Galen Drook our producers are Shane McKean and Cameron Travian and our intern is Jaila Everett. You can touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com you can also of course tweet us with questions or comments if you're a fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and we'll see you soon.
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