James Dooley: How AI has impacted Google search engine results pages. Today I'm joined with Charles Floate.
Charles Floate, how has AI impacted Google search? It could be Gemini AI Overviews, the AI map pack, which is now coming up quite a lot, and AI Mode now at the top as one of the tabs.
How is this disrupting Google search?
Charles Floate: I think the first thing AI has disrupted is the index because we have seen index bloat explode.
From the year ChatGPT came out to a year later, the Google index grew 10 times.
We saw more content produced, published and indexed by Google in that year than we did in the previous nine years combined.
The amount of production that has hit the web because of AI tools, page generators, press releases, summaries and other content systems has created a much larger quantity than we have ever seen before.
I think that will continue as these tools get bigger and better, especially as programmatic SEO tools become more common.
AI has also given people who are not the most technically skilled SEOs serious firepower to implement things they would never have dreamed of before without a large, capable team behind them.
AI Overviews have massively changed informational SERPs.
Previously, you could get 60% to 80% more clicks from informational queries than you do now because the AI Overview at the top answers the query in a much better and longer format than featured snippets did.
Users can follow up inside the AI Overview, go into a chat mode experience and ask additional questions.
That was never the case in the old search landscape.
It has taken traffic away from bloggers and publishers that were earning through AdSense and other ad networks.
I think we will slowly see AI Overviews move into AI map packs, AI shopping, AI images and other verticals, and they will keep taking more of the cake.
James Dooley: With regards to index bloat and the amount of new articles being created, surely Google will have to change something.
The barrier to entry for indexation will need to be raised because the cost and compute power required to store all this information will be huge.
Google is a business trying to make profit. It will not want all this index bloat.
It does not need 10,000 pages talking about the exact same thing.
What do you think will change for someone who creates a brand new DR0 website and publishes 10,000 pages?
Surely Google will need other signals because the content will be relatively similar unless they are using information gain.
Will backlinks, user signals or something else become more important for getting into the index?
Charles Floate: I think Google will probably move towards a stage where you need to be signed up with Webmaster Tools, Google Search Console or something similar to get verified and indexed.
I think they will move to a system where you effectively have to be signed up with Google to get into the index in the first place.
From there, I only really see a domain-level system working.
Google might say, “This domain is allowed in the index. Other domains are not.”
To get into that index, you may need to go through certain sign-ups, create a YouTube account or complete other verification steps.
Generally speaking, Google already weights certain sites higher.
I think those weights will keep increasing.
If the BBC is currently treated as a 0.5 and a small hobby blog is treated as a 0.05, the BBC might move closer to 0.9 while the hobby blog stays at 0.05.
Certain sources will become much more weighted and trusted, which I think will make parasite SEO even worse.
James Dooley: It is crazy how a lot of this points back to parasites.
Charles Floate: Exactly.
James Dooley: With regards to AI map packs, people might search for plumbers near me and get a Gemini AI Overview, then the Google Business Profile listings.
Do you think Google Business Profile listings will eventually be replaced with AI map packs?
Charles Floate: Yes.
It is already happening in the US and UK for certain industries and keywords.
James Dooley: Do you think it will become a blanket replacement?
Charles Floate: Google makes decisions based on profitability.
The AI map packs I have seen so far remove click-to-call from the organic result.
That means there is no organic click-to-call, only paid click-to-call.
That incentivises local businesses to spend more on ads.
If Google can profit from it, they will do it.
I definitely see AI map packs becoming the default experience.
Bear in mind, they currently only show one or two companies, whereas the traditional map pack usually shows three to six companies in the immediate view.
If Google can reduce the number of organic companies shown, remove their click-to-call ability and push users towards paid calls, then businesses will spend more on ads.
That also increases CPCs in local markets.
I see AI map packs rolling out quicker than AI Mode becoming the default.
James Dooley: Let us move on to AI Mode.
If AI Mode becomes the default, how will Google, as a business that wants profit, start doing PPC inside AI Mode?
Normally, there are four ads at the top and organic links underneath.
What do you think they will do in AI Mode, and why would they move to it unless they think it will be more profitable?
Charles Floate: AI Mode, based on their initial research, keeps users inside Google’s ecosystem for much longer than traditional search.
If users spend more time in that ecosystem, Google has more ability to monetise them.
The ad system used in chat mode or AI Mode will likely be dynamic.
It will probably work around positive and negative words.
You will put in the positive words you want people to prompt into it, then add location, device, age and similar targeting options.
Also, in an AI Mode experience, more people will likely be logged in, so targeting becomes even easier for the ads department.
Ads will probably display dynamically.
Bidding may remain similar, but I am not sure whether quality score will move over.
It might not, which could allow Google to increase CPC bidding even more.
I see it becoming more like a dynamic ad display network than traditional keyword-based CPC bidding.
James Dooley: Guys, I hope you enjoyed this episode on how AI is disrupting Google search.
Leave a comment in the comment section with your thoughts on how AI will further disrupt Google search, Bing search and search engines more widely.
Charles Floate, it has been an absolute pleasure.
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